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Opinion polling for the 2017 Chilean general election

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Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2017 Chilean general elections.

President

Open-ended question

Question: "Who would you like to be the next president?" Full sample is shown, unless specified.

Polling firm Field dates

MEO

Goic

Guillier

F Kast

JA Kast

Lagos
Mayol
Mayol

Ossandón

Parisi

Piñera

Sánchez
Others DK/NR Error
Adimark November 7–28, 2016 1% 1% 21% 1% 7% 4% 24% 10% 31% 3%
Criteria Research November 28-December 7, 2016 2% 25% 0% 0% 4% 5% 2% 27% 35% 3.4%
CEP November 25-December 23, 2016 1% 14% 5% 2% 20% 10% 49% 3%
CERC-Mori December 7–15, 2016 14% 6% 3% 19% 57% 3%
Adimark December 2–28, 2016 2% 26% 5% 4% 29% 11% 23% 3%
Criteria Research December 27, 2016 – January 4, 2017 2% 27% 1% 2% 5% 2% 32% 22% 7% 3.4%
Adimark January 6–25, 2017 1% 1% 28% 1% 5% 2% 27% 10% 25% 3%
Criteria Research January 25-February 2, 2017 1% 28% 3% 5% 3% 28% 32% 3.4%
Adimark February 2–28, 2017 1% 1% 25% 1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 29% 10% 25% 3%
Cadem March 1–3, 2017 1% 17% 3% 3% 2% 25% 6% 43% 3.7%
Criteria Research March 1–10, 2017 3% 25% 7% 4% 5% 23% 33% 3.4%
Cadem March 8–10, 2017 1% 1% 17% 1% 2% 4% 2% 26% 6% 40% 3.7%
Adimark March 3–28, 2017 2% 2% 23% 1% 3% 4% 27% 2% 7% 29% 3%
Cadem March 15–17, 2017 1% 2% 16% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 24% 7% 42% 3.7%
Cadem March 22–24, 2017 1% 3% 15% 1% 3% 3% 1% 25% 2% 4% 42% 3.6%
Cadem March 29–31, 2017 1% 2% 16% 1% 4% 3% 1% 24% 4% 4% 40% 3.6%
CERC-Mori March 28-April 10, 2017 2% 14% 4% 2% 24% 3% 2% 49% 3%
Cadem April 5–7, 2017 2% 1% 15% 3% 3% 2% 26% 6% 3% 39% 3.6%
Criteria Research April 4–11, 2017 2% 18% 2% 4% 6% 33% 11% 24% 3.4%
Cadem April 12–13, 2017 1% 2% 17% 1% 3% 2% 24% 6% 3% 41% 3.6%
Adimark April 3–25, 2017 2% 19% 1% 3% 2% 3% 24% 11% 6% 29% 3%
Cadem April 20–21, 2017 2% 17% 1% 4% 1% 23% 6% 4% 42% 3.7%
Cadem April 26–28, 2017 2% 16% 1% 1% 4% 3% 22% 6% 4% 41% 3.6%
Cadem May 3–5, 2017 1% 3% 15% 1% 4% 2% 24% 8% 4% 38% 3.6%
Criteria Research May 2–12, 2017 18% 9% 5% 30% 17% 15% 7% 3.4%
CEP April 26-May 22, 2017 1.5% 2.1% 12.8% 1.5% 5.4% 23.7% 4.8% 7% 42% 3%
Cadem May 10–12, 2017 1% 3% 15% 1% 4% 1% 24% 9% 3% 39% 3.7%
Adimark May 3–29, 2017 2% 3% 21% 1% 1% 4% 1% 25% 11% 5% 26% 3%
Cadem May 17–19, 2017 1% 3% 14% 1% 1% 4% 2% 26% 8% 4% 36% 3.6%
Cadem May 24–26, 2017 1% 3% 13% 1% 4% 2% 24% 9% 4% 39% 3.7%
Cadem June 1–2, 2017 1% 2% 14% 1% 4% 1% 24% 10% 5% 38% 3.7%
Criteria Research June 1–11, 2017 2% 6% 17% 6% 29% 12% 19% 10% 3.4%
Cadem June 7–9, 2017 1% 13% 1% 1% 5% 25% 9% 5% 40% 3.6%
Adimark June 2–27, 2017 1% 2% 15% 3% 1% 3% 4% 1% 31% 13% 3% 23% 3%
Cadem June 15–16, 2017 1% 2% 13% 2% 2% 6% 1% 25% 9% 5% 34% 3.6%
Cadem June 21–23, 2017 2% 12% 3% 3% 6% 1% 24% 9% 6% 34% 3.6%
Cadem June 28–29, 2017 1% 1% 9% 5% 1% 3% 7% 1% 22% 11% 4% 35% 3.6%
Cadem July 5–7, 2017 1% 9% 1% 1% 2% 1% 30% 15% 5% 35% 3.7%
Adimark July 4–26, 2017 1% 1% 16% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 32% 17% 4% 22% 3%
Adimark July 4–26, 2017 1% 1% 21% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 39% 20% 2% 10% 3%
Criteria Research July 14–19, 2017 1% 3% 13% 5% 1% 3% 37% 19% 14% 6% 3.4%
CEP July 21-August 17, 2017 1.6% 2.2% 14.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 31.3% 10.2% 1.4% 35.5% 3%
Criteria Research August 11–17, 2017 2% 4% 15% 2% 35% 17% 18% 7% 3.4%
Adimark August 3–29, 2017 1% 5% 16% 1% 2% 34% 15% 4% 22% 3%
Adimark August 3–29, 2017 1% 7% 21% 1% 2% 40% 16% 2% 10% 3%
Criteria Research September 21–24, 2017 3% 3% 17% 3% 34% 17% 18% 5% 3.4%
CERC-Mori September 1–12, 2017 2% 2% 20% 1% 31% 8% 35% 3%
CEP September 22-October 16, 2017 3.4% 2.3% 13.8% 32.8% 7.0% 4.3% 36.4% 3%
Criteria Research October 20–30, 2017 4% 5% 18% 7% 33% 15% 12% 6% 2.5%

Likely voter (52%).
Likely voter (49%).

First round

Question: "Given the following list of candidates, who would you vote for?"

Legend
Not on the list
Wins election
May win election
Runoff
May go to a runoff
Polling firm Field dates

Artés


MEO

Goic

Guillier

JA Kast

Navarro

Piñera

Sánchez
Others DK/NR Error Sample
CERC-Mori December 7–15, 2016 5% 19% 23% 19% 34% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
CERC-Mori March 28-April 10, 2017 3% 2% 14% 0% 0% 26% 4% 51% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
Criteria Research May 2–12, 2017 3% 3% 19% 3% 33% 21% 7% 12% 3.4% Total (n=810)
Activa Research June 2–9, 2017 1.6% 2.1% 13.9% <1% <1% 21.4% 7.1% 11.8% 42.1% 2.6% Total (n=1395)
Criteria Research June 1–11, 2017 5% 6% 19% 2% 36% 18% 1% 13% 3.4% Total (n=814)
CERC-Mori June 6–15, 2017 3% 5% 18% 1% 26% 10% 38% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
Cadem July 5–7, 2017 2% 3% 16% 4% 38% 26% 3% 8% 5.4% Likely voter (45%, n=324)
Activa Research July 7–12, 2017 0.6% 1.3% 14.0% 2.4% <1% 28.3% 12.0% 3.9% 37.5% 2.6% Total (n=1440)
Cadem July 12–14, 2017 2% 2% 20% 4% 40% 23% 3% 6% 5.4% Likely voter (45%, n=326)
Criteria Research July 14–19, 2017 5% 5% 14% 3% 38% 23% 5% 7% 3.4% Total (n=825)
Cadem July 19–21, 2017 2% 2% 21% 4% 40% 21% 2% 8% 5.6% Likely voter (44%, n=310)
Cadem July 26–28, 2017 4% 3% 22% 5% 42% 19% 1% 4% 5.3% Likely voter (43%, n=345)
CEP July 21-August 17, 2017 2.4% 5.3% 17.8% 3.3% 39.7% 17.9% 2.9% 10.7% 4.1% Will "surely" go to vote (40%, n=569)
Criteria Research August 11–17, 2017 2% 8% 18% 9% 38% 22% 3% 5.1% Likely voter (45%, n=365)
Cadem August 3–25, 2017 0% 2% 5% 19% 4% 0% 42% 19% 9% 2.8% Likely voter (44%, n=1228)
Activa Research August 11–18, 2017 <1% 1.7% 1% 17.9% 1.1% <1% 44.4% 19.2% 1.5% 13.2% 3.8% Likely voter (42.4%, n=673)
CERC-Mori September 1–12, 2017 0% 4% 8% 30% 2% 1% 44% 11% 4.2% Likely voter (45%, n=540)
Cadem August 30-September 29, 2017 0% 3% 5% 20% 4% 0% 43% 15% 10% 2.3% Likely voter (47%, n=1782)
Criteria Research September 21–24, 2017 0% 1% 8% 19% 6% 0% 36% 24% 6% 4.7% Likely voter (49%, n=430)
Activa Research September 21–28, 2017 <0.5% 6.1% 2.2% 11.2% 8.6% <0.5% 45.2% 15.5% 10.7% 4.4% Likely voter (32.9%, n=487)
CEP September 22-October 16, 2017 0.1% 4.6% 3.9% 19.7% 2.7% 0.5% 44.4% 8.5% 15.6% 3.9% Likely voter (44%, n=627)
Cadem October 4–26, 2017 0% 4% 4% 21% 5% 0% 43% 13% 10% 1.8% Likely voter (49%, n=2964)
Criteria Research October 20–30, 2017 1% 5% 6% 24% 6% 0% 39% 15% 4% 3.6% Likely voter (46%, n=724)
Cadem October 31-November 2, 2017 1% 6% 5% 20% 6% 1% 42% 13% 7% 3.5% Likely voter (48%, n=796)
Cadem November 8–10, 2017 0.5% 7% 6% 20% 7% 0.5% 39% 13% 7% N/A% Likely voter (48%, n=N/A)
Activa Research November 8–17, 2017 0.5% 5.5% 3.9% 21.1% 5.4% 0.1% 35.1% 14.0% 14.3% 3.1% Likely voter (48.9%, n=989)
Cadem November 14–16, 2017 0.5% 5% 6% 21% 6% 0.5% 40% 13% 8% 3.6% Likely voter (46%, n=727)

Ballot-box vote. Estimated.

Second round

Question: "If the following two candidates proceed to a runoff election, who would you vote for?"

Legend
Not on the list
Wins election
May win election
Polling firm Field dates

MEO

Goic

Guillier

JA Kast

Navarro

Piñera

Sánchez
DK/NR Error Sample
Criteria Research November 28-December 7, 2016 42% 39% 18% 3.4% Total (n=822)
CERC-Mori December 7–15, 2016 35% 30% 35% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
Criteria Research December 27, 2016 – January 4, 2017 42% 41% 17% 3.4% Total (n=807)
Criteria Research January 25-February 2, 2017 43% 43% 14% 4.4% 100% probability of voting (60%, n=487)
Criteria Research January 25-February 2, 2017 13% 45% 14% 3.5% Total (n=805)
Criteria Research March 1–10, 2017 41% 36% 23% 3.3% Total (n=869)
Criteria Research March 1–10, 2017 18% 39% 42% 3.3% Total (n=869)
CERC-Mori March 28-April 10, 2017 33% 32% 35% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
CERC-Mori March 28-April 10, 2017 18% 33% 49% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
CERC-Mori March 28-April 10, 2017 10% 35% 55% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
Criteria Research April 4–11, 2017 37% 41% 22% 3.4% Total (n=852)
Criteria Research April 4–11, 2017 43% 32% 26% 3.4% Total (n=852)
Criteria Research April 4–11, 2017 18% 45% 37% 3.4% Total (n=852)
Criteria Research May 2–12, 2017 40% 41% 19% 3.4% Total (n=810)
Criteria Research May 2–12, 2017 41% 42% 17% 3.4% Total (n=810)
Criteria Research May 2–12, 2017 22% 43% 35% 3.4% Total (n=810)
CEP April 26-May 22, 2017 14.2% 36.0% 49.8% 2.5% Total (n=1481)
CEP April 26-May 22, 2017 28.7% 32.9% 38.4% 2.5% Total (n=1481)
Criteria Research June 1–11, 2017 40% 43% 17% 3.4% Total (n=814)
Criteria Research June 1–11, 2017 45% 33% 22% 3.4% Total (n=814)
Criteria Research June 1–11, 2017 27% 42% 31% 3.4% Total (n=814)
CERC-Mori June 6–15, 2017 35% 32% 33% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
CERC-Mori June 6–15, 2017 23% 33% 44% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
CERC-Mori June 6–15, 2017 33% 26% 41% 2.8% Total (n=1200)
Criteria Research July 14–19, 2017 37% 45% 18% 3.4% Total (n=825)
Criteria Research July 14–19, 2017 45% 42% 13% 3.4% Total (n=825)
Criteria Research July 14–19, 2017 24% 45% 31% 3.4% Total (n=825)
Criteria Research July 14–19, 2017 27% 47% 26% 3.4% Total (n=825)
Cadem July 5–28, 2017 39% 49% 12% 2.7% Likely voter (46%, n=1327)
Cadem July 5–28, 2017 48% 42% 10% 2.7% Likely voter (46%, n=1327)
Cadem July 5–28, 2017 27% 50% 23% 2.7% Likely voter (46%, n=1327)
Activa Research July 7–12, 2017 23.7% 32.8% 43.5% 2.6% Total (n=1440)
Activa Research July 7–12, 2017 32.7% 28.3% 39.0% 2.6% Total (n=1440)
CEP July 21-August 17, 2017 23.7% 48.9% 27.5% 4.1% Will "surely" go to vote (40%, n=569)
CEP July 21-August 17, 2017 45.7% 34.9% 19.4% 4.1% Will "surely" go to vote (40%, n=569)
CEP July 21-August 17, 2017 35.7% 46.6% 17.7% 4.1% Will "surely" go to vote (40%, n=569)
Criteria Research August 11–17, 2017 38% 46% 16% 5.1% Likely voter (45%, n=368)
Criteria Research August 11–17, 2017 48% 41% 11% 5.1% Likely voter (45%, n=368)
Criteria Research August 11–17, 2017 33% 48% 19% 5.1% Likely voter (45%, n=368)
Criteria Research August 11–17, 2017 25% 49% 26% 5.1% Likely voter (45%, n=368)
Activa Research August 11–18, 2017 33.9% 46.9% 19.2% 4% Likely voter (42.4%, n=600)
Activa Research August 11–18, 2017 46.8% 29.7% 23.5% 4% Likely voter (42.4%, n=600)
Cadem August 3–25, 2017 37% 49% 14% 2.8% Likely voter (44%, n=1228)
Cadem August 3–25, 2017 50% 39% 11% 2.8% Likely voter (44%, n=1228)
Cadem August 3–25, 2017 27% 51% 22% 2.8% Likely voter (44%, n=1228)
Cadem August 3–25, 2017 24% 53% 23% 2.8% Likely voter (44%, n=1228)
Cadem August 30-September 29, 2017 38% 50% 12% 2.3% Likely voter (47%, n=1782)
Cadem August 30-September 29, 2017 50% 36% 14% 2.3% Likely voter (47%, n=1782)
Cadem August 30-September 29, 2017 28% 51% 21% 2.3% Likely voter (47%, n=1782)
Cadem August 30-September 29, 2017 24% 52% 24% 2.3% Likely voter (47%, n=1782)
Criteria Research September 21–24, 2017 44% 45% 11% 4.7% Likely voter (45%, n=430)
Criteria Research September 21–24, 2017 46% 45% 9% 4.7% Likely voter (45%, n=430)
Criteria Research September 21–24, 2017 30% 45% 25% 4.7% Likely voter (45%, n=430)
Criteria Research September 21–24, 2017 28% 49% 23% 4.7% Likely voter (45%, n=430)
Activa Research September 21–28, 2017 29% 48.2% 22.8% 4.4% Likely voter (32.9%, n=487)
Activa Research September 21–28, 2017 48.8% 31.4% 19.8% 4.4% Likely voter (32.9%, n=487)
CEP September 22-October 16, 2017 19.7% 40.0% 40.3% 2.6% Total (n=1424)
CEP September 22-October 16, 2017 39.7% 23.3% 37.0% 2.6% Total (n=1424)
CEP September 22-October 16, 2017 27.2% 39.4% 33.4% 2.6% Total (n=1424)
Cadem October 4–26, 2017 38% 50% 12% 1.8% Likely voter (49%, n=2964)
Cadem October 4–26, 2017 51% 35% 14% 1.8% Likely voter (49%, n=2964)
Cadem October 4–26, 2017 29% 50% 21% 1.8% Likely voter (49%, n=2964)
Cadem October 4–26, 2017 25% 52% 23% 1.8% Likely voter (49%, n=2964)
Cadem October 4–26, 2017 15% 49% 36% 1.8% Likely voter (49%, n=2964)
Criteria Research October 20–30, 2017 46% 49% 5% 3.6% Likely voter (46%, n=724)
Criteria Research October 20–30, 2017 49% 41% 10% 3.6% Likely voter (46%, n=724)
Activa Research November 8–17, 2017 38.8% 44.1% 17.0% 3.1% Likely voter (48.9%, n=989)
Activa Research November 8–17, 2017 45.8% 36.3% 17.8% 3.1% Likely voter (48.9%, n=989)
Cadem October 31-November 2, 2017 38% 50% 12% 3.5% Likely voter (48%, n=796)
Cadem October 31-November 2, 2017 51% 36% 13% 3.5% Likely voter (48%, n=796)
Cadem October 31-November 2, 2017 31% 50% 19% 3.5% Likely voter (48%, n=796)
Cadem October 31-November 2, 2017 29% 51% 20% 3.5% Likely voter (48%, n=796)
Cadem October 31-November 2, 2017 18% 49% 33% 3.5% Likely voter (48%, n=796)
Cadem November 8–10, 2017 38% 48% 14% N/A% Likely voter (48%, n=N/A)
Cadem November 14–16, 2017 39% 48% 13% 3.6% Likely voter (46%, n=727)
Cadem November 22–24, 2017 37.3% 39.8% 22.9% 2.6% Total (n=1442)
Criteria Research November 22–28, 2017 46% 51% 3% 3.7% Likely voter (44%, n=702)
Cadem November 29-December 1, 2017 38.6% 40.0% 21.4% 2.6% Total (n=1439)
Cadem December 13–15, 2017 33.4% 39.6% 27.0% 2.6% Total (n=1455)

Ballot-box vote.

References

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