Misplaced Pages

Post-election pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election

Article snapshot taken from Wikipedia with creative commons attribution-sharealike license. Give it a read and then ask your questions in the chat. We can research this topic together.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats   Liberal-National seats
  Seat Margin Swing   Seat Margin Swing
  Broadmeadows 24.7 -0.4        
  Thomastown 23.9 +1.9        
  Coburg 21.8 +4.9   Malvern 16.6 +1.0
  Sunshine 20.2 +1.1   Murray Valley 15.9 +6.5
  Preston 18.6 +3.3   Rodney 15.7 +10.5
  Williamstown 18.5 +2.9   Brighton 15.6 +2.5
  Footscray 17.6 -1.8   Wimmera 15.1 *
  Richmond 16.2 -1.1   Hawthorn 14.1 -0.5
  Northcote 16.1 -3.8   Kew 13.8 +1.2
  Mill Park 15.8 +1.9   Warrandyte 13.5 +0.4
  Pascoe Vale 14.9 +3.8   Doncaster 13.3 +1.7
  Altona 14.7 +6.5   Glen Waverley 13.2 +2.5
  Melbourne 13.8 -2.1   Sandringham 12.5 +1.8
  Keilor 11.9 +0.3   Wantirna 11.9 +1.2
  Clayton 11.7 +2.1   Bulleen 11.6 +3.0
  Werribee 11.5 +0.8   Mooroolbark 10.9 +1.3
  Melton 11.3 -0.9   Frankston 10.7 +4.7
  Bendigo West 11.3 +9.1   Polwarth 10.7 -2.6
  Geelong North 10.9 +2.8   Evelyn 9.5 +3.2
  Springvale 10.8 +2.9   Warrnambool 8.8 +5.0
  Morwell 8.9 +6.2   Caulfield 8.5 +0.8
  Essendon 8.5 +5.1   Box Hill 7.6 +2.7
  Dandenong North 8.0 +5.8   Gippsland South 7.5 +11.9
  Gippsland East 7.7 *   Benalla 7.4 +7.9
  Niddrie 6.8 +2.4   Knox 7.3 +0.6
  Albert Park 6.4 -2.4   Forest Hill 7.1 +3.4
  Mildura 6.1 *   Benambra 7.1 +7.9
  Bundoora 6.1 +3.5   Burwood 6.8 +1.8
  Dandenong 5.8 +2.4   Pakenham 6.5 +4.6
  Ivanhoe 5.4 +3.9   Dromana 6.2 +1.9
  Frankston East 4.6 +7.7   Bennettswood 6.1 +3.1
  Yan Yean 4.2 +2.6   Mornington 5.7 +5.6
  Gippsland West 3.9 *   Cranbourne 5.7 +3.4
  Tullamarine 3.8 +7.0   Berwick 5.0 +0.4
  Ballarat East 3.7 +4.7   South Barwon 4.7 +5.5
  Oakleigh 3.3 +3.4   Bayswater 4.7 +2.8
  Bendigo East 2.9 +7.9   Portland 4.5 +5.9
  Ripon 2.6 +7.2   Shepparton 4.1 *
  Narracan 2.5 +4.1   Prahran 4.0 +0.6
  Gisborne 1.6 +9.4   Eltham 3.6 +3.3
  Ballarat West 1.0 +5.8   Monbulk 3.2 +2.0
  Seymour 0.7 +4.9   Swan Hill 2.8 *
  Mitcham 0.5 +5.8   Mordialloc 2.2 +2.5
  Carrum 0.2 +1.3   Bentleigh 1.9 +2.8
  Geelong 0.0 +3.5   Bellarine 1.7 +3.8

Notes

Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

A plus (+) sign in front of a swing figure indicates a swing towards Labor and a minus (-) sign indicates a swing to the Liberal-National parties.

No swing figure is available for this seat due to the lack of a Labor versus Liberal-National margin at the previous election.
The margin for this seat is Independent (Craig Ingram) over National.
The margin for this seat is Independent (Russell Savage) over Liberal.
The margin for this seat is Independent (Susan Davies) over Liberal.
The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Chris Hazelman).
The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Carl Ditterich).

References

Category: