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{{short description|American economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate}} {{short description|American economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate (born 1958)}}
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{{Infobox economist {{Infobox economist
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'''John Richard Lott Jr.''' (born May 8, 1958) is an American economist, political commentator, and ] advocate. Lott was formerly employed at various academic institutions and at the ] conservative think tank. He is former president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, a nonprofit he founded in 2013. He worked in the ] within the ] under the ] from October 2020 to January 2021. Lott holds a Ph.D. in ] from ]. '''John Richard Lott Jr.''' (born May 8, 1958) is an American economist, political commentator, and ] advocate. Lott was formerly employed at various academic institutions and at the ] ]. He is the former president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, a nonprofit he founded in 2013. He worked in the ] within the ] under the ] from October 2020 to January 2021. Lott holds a Ph.D. in ] from ].


He has written for both academic and popular publications. He has authored books such as '']'', '']'', and '']''. He is best known as a ]<ref name="Frum140114">{{cite news|url=http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/01/14/with-guns-the-threatened-quickly-become-the-threat.html|title=With Guns, the Threatened Can Quickly Become the Threat|last=Frum|first=David|date=January 14, 2014|access-date=January 16, 2014|website=Daily Beast}}</ref><ref name="Blake121216">{{cite news|url=https://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/16/entertainment/la-et-st-piers-morgan-newtown-shooting-gun-control-20121215|title=Piers Morgan on gun control: 'How many kids have to die?'|last=Blake|first=Meredith|date=December 16, 2012|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|access-date=January 16, 2014}}</ref><ref name="BovardOnMGLC">{{cite web|url=http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo6686900.html|title=Review quotes|last=Bovard|first=James|website=press.uchicago.edu|publisher=University of Chicago Press|access-date=January 16, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180919122545/https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo6686900.html|archive-date=September 19, 2018|url-status=dead}}</ref> and has argued against restrictions on owning and carrying guns. '']'' referred to Lott as "The Gun Crowd's Guru."<ref>"" {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150502153845/http://www.mywire.com/pubs/Newsweek/2001/03/12/314509?extID=10051 |date=May 2, 2015 }}</ref> He has written for both academic and popular publications. He has authored books such as '']'', '']'', and '']''. He is best known as a ]<ref name="Frum140114">{{cite news|url=http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/01/14/with-guns-the-threatened-quickly-become-the-threat.html|title=With Guns, the Threatened Can Quickly Become the Threat|last=Frum|first=David|date=January 14, 2014|access-date=January 16, 2014|website=Daily Beast}}</ref><ref name="Blake121216">{{cite news|url=https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/tv/la-xpm-2012-dec-16-la-et-st-piers-morgan-newtown-shooting-gun-control-20121215-story.html|title=Piers Morgan on gun control: 'How many kids have to die?'|last=Blake|first=Meredith|date=December 16, 2012|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|access-date=January 16, 2014}}</ref><ref name="BovardOnMGLC">{{cite web|url=http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo6686900.html|title=Review quotes|last=Bovard|first=James|website=press.uchicago.edu|publisher=University of Chicago Press|access-date=January 16, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180919122545/https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo6686900.html|archive-date=September 19, 2018}}</ref> and has argued against restrictions on owning and carrying guns. '']'' and '']'' have said "no one has had greater influence"<ref>{{Cite web |last=Spies |first=Mike |date=2022-11-03 |title=The Right's Favorite Gun Researcher |url=https://www.thetrace.org/2022/11/john-lott-gun-crime-research-criticism/ |access-date=2023-01-24 |website=The Trace |language=en-us}}</ref> in the scientific debate over firearms while '']'' referred to Lott as "The Gun Crowd's Guru."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.mywire.com/pubs/Newsweek/2001/03/12/314509?extID=10051 |first=Matt |last=Bai |title=The Gun Crowd's Guru: John Lott has a high profile—and a target on his back |work=Newsweek |date=March 12, 2001 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150502153845/http://www.mywire.com/pubs/Newsweek/2001/03/12/314509?extID=10051 |archive-date=May 2, 2015 }}</ref>


==Academic career== ==Academic career==


John Lott studied economics at UCLA, receiving his ] in 1980, ] in 1982, and ] in 1984. Lott has held positions in law and economics at several institutions, including the ], the ], ], the ], ], and ]. Lott was the chief economist at the ]<ref name=":0">{{cite web|url=http://www.foxnews.com/archive/author/john-lott/index.html|title=Dr. John R. Lott Jr.|date=2016-07-27|publisher=Fox News|access-date=2016-07-27}}</ref> (1988–1989). He spent five years as a visiting professor (1994–1995) and as a ] (1995–1999) at the ]. Lott was a resident scholar at the ] (2001–2006). He left AEI for ].<ref></ref> From July 2007 to 2010, Lott was a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland Foundation at the ] and lectured on law and economics.<ref></ref><ref></ref> John Lott studied economics at ], receiving his ] in 1980, ] in 1982, and ] in 1984. Lott has held positions in law and economics at several institutions, including the ], the ], UCLA, the ], ], and ]. Lott was the chief economist at the ]<ref name=":0">{{cite web|url=http://www.foxnews.com/archive/author/john-lott/index.html|title=Dr. John R. Lott Jr.|date=2016-07-27|publisher=Fox News|access-date=2016-07-27}}</ref> (1988–1989). He spent five years at the ], as a visiting professor from 1994 to 1995 and as a ] from 1995 to 1999. Lott was a resident scholar at the ] from 2001 to 2006. He left AEI for ].<ref></ref> From July 2007 to 2010, Lott was a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland Foundation at the ] and lectured on law and economics.<ref></ref><ref></ref>


Op-eds by Lott have appeared in such places as '']'', '']'', the '']'', '']'', and the '']''. Since 2008, he has been a columnist for ], initially weekly.<ref></ref><ref name=":0" /> Lott has written op-eds for '']'', '']'', the '']'', '']'', and the '']''. Since 2008, he has been a columnist for ], initially weekly.<ref></ref><ref name=":0" />


== Research on guns == == Research on guns ==
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===Concealed weapons and crime rate=== ===Concealed weapons and crime rate===


In a 1997 article written with David B. Mustard<ref name="LottMust97">John R. Lott Jr. and David B. Mustard, "Crime, Deterrence and Right-To-Carry Concealed Handguns", 26 ''Journal of Legal Studies'' 1 (1997) {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100616105437/http://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/files/41.lott_.final_.pdf |date=2010-06-16 }}; {{subscription required}}.</ref> and Lott's subsequent books '']'' and '']'', Lott argued that allowing adults to carry ]s significantly reduces crime in America. In 2004, the ] (NAS) National Research Council (NRC) conducted a review of current research and data on firearms and violent crime, including Lott's work, and concluded "that with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates."<ref> Executive Summary, Major Conclusions, page 2. Chapter 6 Right-to-Carry Laws, pages 120–151, reviews research by Lott and others on this issue.</ref> The NAS report wrote of Lott's work, "The initial model specification, when extended to new data, does not show evidence that passage of right-to-carry laws reduces crime. The estimated effects are highly sensitive to seemingly minor changes in the model specification and control variables."<ref name=":3">{{Cite web|last1=Farley|first1=Robert|last2=Robertson|first2=Lori|last3=Kiely|first3=Eugene|date=2012-12-20|title=Gun Rhetoric vs. Gun Facts|url=https://www.factcheck.org/2012/12/gun-rhetoric-vs-gun-facts/|access-date=2021-01-02|website=FactCheck.org|language=en-US}}</ref> The criminologist ] was the only member on the 18-member NAS panel who dissented from this conclusion.<ref> Appendix A Dissent by James Q. Wilson, page 269.</ref><ref> Appendix A Dissent by James Q. Wilson, page 270.</ref><ref name=":3" /> For similar reasons as highlighted by the NAS, as well as "multiple serious problems with data and methodology", a 2020 comprehensive review of existing research on concealed-carry by the RAND Corporation discounted Lott's studies.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime|url=https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/concealed-carry/violent-crime.html|access-date=2021-01-02|website=www.rand.org|language=en}}</ref> In a 1997 article written with David B. Mustard<ref name="LottMust97">John R. Lott Jr. and David B. Mustard, "Crime, Deterrence and Right-To-Carry Concealed Handguns", 26 ''Journal of Legal Studies'' 1 (1997) {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100616105437/http://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/files/41.lott_.final_.pdf |date=2010-06-16 }}; {{subscription required}}.</ref> and Lott's subsequent books '']'' and '']'', Lott argued that allowing adults to carry ]s significantly reduces crime in America. In 2004, the ] (NAS) National Research Council (NRC) conducted a review of current research and data on firearms and violent crime, including Lott's work, and concluded "that with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of ] laws and crime rates."<ref> Executive Summary, Major Conclusions, p. 2. Ch. 6 Right-to-Carry Laws, pp. 120–151, reviews research by Lott and others on this issue.</ref> The NAS report wrote of Lott's work, "The initial model specification, when extended to new data, does not show evidence that passage of right-to-carry laws reduces crime. The estimated effects are highly sensitive to seemingly minor changes in the model specification and control variables."<ref name=":3">{{Cite web |last1=Farley |first1=Robert |last2=Robertson |first2=Lori |last3=Kiely |first3=Eugene |date=2012-12-20 |title=Gun Rhetoric vs. Gun Facts |url=https://www.factcheck.org/2012/12/gun-rhetoric-vs-gun-facts/ |access-date=2021-01-02|website=FactCheck.org|language=en-US}}</ref> The criminologist ] was the only member on the 18-member NAS panel who dissented from this conclusion.<ref>{{cite book |url=http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=269 |title=Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review |pages=269–270 |isbn=0-309-09124-1 |year=2004 |chapter=Appendix A Dissent |first=James Q. |last=Wilson |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121016133952/http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=269 |archive-date=October 16, 2012 }}</ref><ref name=":3" /> For similar reasons as highlighted by the NAS, as well as "multiple serious problems with data and methodology", a 2020 comprehensive review of existing research on concealed-carry by the ] discounted Lott's studies.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime |url=https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/concealed-carry/violent-crime.html|access-date=2021-01-02 |website=rand.org|language=en}}</ref>


Other reviews said that there were problems with Lott's model. A replication by Dan A. Black and Daniel Nagin found that minor adjustments to Lott and Mustard's model led to the disappearance of the findings.<ref name="Black">{{Cite journal|last=Black|first=Dan A.|author2=Daniel S. Nagin|date=January 1998|title=Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?|journal=Journal of Legal Studies|volume=27|issue=1|page=214|doi=10.1086/468019|s2cid=154626760}}</ref><ref name=":4">, Volume 26, No 1, January/February 2002, pp. 19–23. Expanded as: </ref> In the '']'', ] argued that Lott failed to account for several key variables, including drug consumption.<ref name="Hemenway">{{Cite journal|last=Hemenway |first=David |date=December 31, 1998 |journal=The New England Journal of Medicine |title=More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding crime and gun-control laws / Making A Killing: The business of guns in America |volume=339 |issue=27 |pages=2029–30 |doi=10.1056/NEJM199812313392719}}</ref> ] and ] said that the model used by Lott contained significant coding errors and ].<ref name="shootdown">{{Cite journal|last=Ayres |first=Ian |author2=John J. Donohue III |date=April 2003 |title=Shooting Down the 'More Guns, Less Crime' Hypothesis |journal=Stanford Law Review |volume=55 |issue=4 |page=1193 |doi= 10.2139/ssrn.343781|s2cid=55757925 |url=http://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/fss_papers/1241 }}</ref> In the ''American Journal of Public Health'', ] et al. also raised concerns about other flaws in the study, such as misclassification of laws and endogeneity of predictor variables, which they said rendered the study's conclusions "insupportable".<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Webster|first1=D W|last2=Vernick|first2=J S|last3=Ludwig|first3=J|last4=Lester|first4=K J|title=Flawed gun policy research could endanger public safety.|journal=American Journal of Public Health|date=June 1997|volume=87|issue=6|pages=918–921|doi=10.2105/AJPH.87.6.918|pmid=9224169|pmc=1380922}}</ref> Florida State University criminologist ] considered it unlikely that such a large decrease in violent crime could be explained by a relatively modest increase in ].<ref>{{Cite book| last=Kleck| first=Gary| title=Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control| location=New York, NY| publisher=Aldine de Gruyter| year=1997}}</ref> A 1998 study by ] that said it "more effectively control for unobserved variables that may vary over time" than the Lott and Mustard study concluded that "shall-issue laws have resulted, if anything, in an increase in adult homicide rates."<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Ludwig|first1=Jens|title=Concealed-gun-carrying laws and violent crime: evidence from state panel data|journal=International Review of Law and Economics|date=September 1998|volume=18|issue=3|pages=239–254|doi=10.1016/S0144-8188(98)00012-X|url=http://student-www.uchicago.edu/~ludwigj/papers/IJLE-ConcealedGunLaws-1998.pdf|citeseerx=10.1.1.487.5452}}</ref> A 2001 study in the '']'' by University of Chicago economist ] did robustness checks of Lott and Mustard's study and found that the findings of the Lott and Mustard study were inaccurate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Duggan|first=Mark|date=2001-10-01|title=More Guns, More Crime|journal=Journal of Political Economy|volume=109|issue=5|pages=1086–1114|doi=10.1086/322833|s2cid=33899679|issn=0022-3808}}</ref> Other reviews said that there were problems with Lott's model. A replication by Dan A. Black and ] found that minor adjustments to Lott and Mustard's model led to the disappearance of the findings.<ref name="Black">{{Cite journal|last=Black|first=Dan A.|author2=Daniel S. Nagin|date=January 1998|title=Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?|journal=Journal of Legal Studies|volume=27|issue=1|page=214|doi=10.1086/468019|s2cid=154626760}}</ref><ref name=":4">, Volume 26, No 1, January/February 2002, pp. 19–23. Expanded as: </ref> In the '']'', ] argued that Lott failed to account for several key variables, including drug consumption.<ref name="Hemenway">{{Cite journal|last=Hemenway |first=David |date=December 31, 1998 |journal=The New England Journal of Medicine |title=More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding crime and gun-control laws / Making A Killing: The business of guns in America |volume=339 |issue=27 |pages=2029–2030 |doi=10.1056/NEJM199812313392719}}</ref> ] and ] said that the model used by Lott contained significant coding errors and ].<ref name="shootdown">{{Cite journal|last=Ayres |first=Ian |author2=John J. Donohue III |date=April 2003 |title=Shooting Down the 'More Guns, Less Crime' Hypothesis |journal=Stanford Law Review |volume=55 |issue=4 |page=1193 |doi= 10.2139/ssrn.343781|s2cid=55757925 |url=http://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/fss_papers/1241 }}</ref> In the ''American Journal of Public Health'', ] et al. also raised concerns about flaws in the study, such as misclassification of laws and endogeneity of predictor variables, which they said rendered the study's conclusions "insupportable".<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Webster|first1=D W|last2=Vernick|first2=J S|last3=Ludwig|first3=J|last4=Lester|first4=K J|title=Flawed gun policy research could endanger public safety.|journal=American Journal of Public Health|date=June 1997|volume=87|issue=6|pages=918–921|doi=10.2105/AJPH.87.6.918|pmid=9224169|pmc=1380922}}</ref> Florida State University criminologist ] considered it unlikely that such a large decrease in violent crime could be explained by a relatively modest increase in ].<ref>{{Cite book| last=Kleck| first=Gary| title=Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control| location=New York| publisher=Aldine de Gruyter| year=1997}}</ref> A 1998 study by ] that said it "more effectively control for unobserved variables that may vary over time" than the Lott and Mustard study concluded that "shall-issue laws have resulted, if anything, in an increase in adult homicide rates."<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Ludwig|first1=Jens|title=Concealed-gun-carrying laws and violent crime: evidence from state panel data|journal=International Review of Law and Economics|date=September 1998|volume=18|issue=3|pages=239–254|doi=10.1016/S0144-8188(98)00012-X|url=http://student-www.uchicago.edu/~ludwigj/papers/IJLE-ConcealedGunLaws-1998.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://student-www.uchicago.edu/~ludwigj/papers/IJLE-ConcealedGunLaws-1998.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live|citeseerx=10.1.1.487.5452}}</ref> A 2001 study in the '']'' by University of Chicago economist ] did robustness checks of Lott and Mustard's study and found that the findings of the Lott and Mustard study were inaccurate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Duggan|first=Mark|date=2001-10-01|title=More Guns, More Crime|journal=Journal of Political Economy|volume=109|issue=5|pages=1086–1114|doi=10.1086/322833|s2cid=33899679|issn=0022-3808}}</ref>


Other academics praised Lott's methodology, including ] economist Bruce Benson,<ref name="Benson">{{Cite journal|last=Benson|first=Bruce L.|date=September 1999|title=Review of ''More Guns, Less Crime''|journal=Public Choice|volume=100|issue=3–4|pages=309–313|doi=10.1023/A:1018689310638|s2cid=150500420}}</ref> ] professor ],<ref name="McGinnis">{{Cite journal|last=McGinnis|first=John O.|date=July 20, 1998|title=Trigger Happiness|journal=]|volume=50|issue=13|page=49}}</ref> ] professor ],<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Moody|first1=Carlisle E.|date=October 2001|title=Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness*|journal=The Journal of Law and Economics|volume=44|issue=s2|pages=799–813|doi=10.1086/323313|s2cid=154918586}}</ref> ] professor William F. Shughart,<ref name="Shughart">{{Cite journal|last1=Shughart|first1=William F.|last2=Lott|first2=John R.|date=April 1, 1999|title=More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review|journal=Southern Economic Journal|volume=65|issue=4|pages=978–981|doi=10.2307/1061296|jstor=1061296}}</ref> and SUNY economist Florenz Plassmann and University of Adelaide economist John Whitley.<ref name="Plassmann and Whitley">"" Confirming More Guns, Less Crime, by Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley, 2003, p. 1361</ref> Other academics praised Lott's methodology, including ] economist ],<ref name="Benson">{{Cite journal|last=Benson|first=Bruce L.|date=September 1999|title=Review of ''More Guns, Less Crime''|journal=Public Choice|volume=100|issue=3–4|pages=309–313|doi=10.1023/A:1018689310638|s2cid=150500420}}</ref> ] professor ],<ref name="McGinnis">{{Cite journal|last=McGinnis|first=John O.|date=July 20, 1998|title=Trigger Happiness|journal=]|volume=50|issue=13|page=49}}</ref> ] professor ],<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Moody|first1=Carlisle E.|date=October 2001|title=Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness|journal=The Journal of Law and Economics|volume=44|issue=s2|pages=799–813|doi=10.1086/323313|s2cid=154918586}}</ref> ] professor William F. Shughart,<ref name="Shughart">{{Cite journal|last1=Shughart|first1=William F.|last2=Lott|first2=John R.|date=April 1, 1999|title=More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review|journal=Southern Economic Journal|volume=65|issue=4|pages=978–981|doi=10.2307/1061296|jstor=1061296}}</ref> and SUNY economist Florenz Plassmann and University of Adelaide economist John Whitley.<ref name="Plassmann and Whitley">"" Confirming More Guns, Less Crime, by Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley, 2003, p. 1361</ref>


Referring to the research done on the topic, '']'' wrote in 2003 that "Mr. Lott's research has convinced his peers of at least one point: No scholars now claim that legalizing concealed weapons causes a major increase in crime."<ref name="CHE">{{Cite journal|last=Glenn |first=David |date=May 9, 2003 |title='More Guns, Less Crime' Thesis Rests on a Flawed Statistical Design, Scholars Argue |journal=] |volume=49 |issue=35 |page=A18 |url= http://chronicle.com/weekly/v49/i35/35a01801.htm |access-date=2007-05-27}}</ref> As Lott critics Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III pointed out, "Lott and Mustard have made an important scholarly contribution in establishing that these laws have not led to the massive bloodbath of death and injury that some of their opponents feared. On the other hand, we find that the statistical evidence that these laws have reduced crime is limited, sporadic, and extraordinarily fragile."<ref name="shootdown" /> A 2008 article in '']'' surveyed peer-reviewed empirical academic studies, and found that 10 supported the proposition that right-to-carry reduces crime, 8 supported no significant effect and none supported an increase.<ref>, ''Econ Journal Watch'' Vol. 5, Iss. 3 (2008).</ref> The article was rebutted by ] and ] in the same journal in 2009.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://econjwatch.org/articles/yet-another-refutation-of-the-more-guns-less-crime-hypothesis-with-some-help-from-moody-and-marvell|title=Yet Another Refutation of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis—With Some Help From Moody and Marvell · Econ Journal Watch : Law and economics, criminal justice policy, guns and crime|website=econjwatch.org|language=en|access-date=2017-09-13}}</ref> Referring to the research done on the topic, '']'' wrote in 2003 that "Mr. Lott's research has convinced his peers of at least one point: No scholars now claim that legalizing concealed weapons causes a major increase in crime."<ref name="CHE">{{Cite journal|last=Glenn |first=David |date=May 9, 2003 |title='More Guns, Less Crime' Thesis Rests on a Flawed Statistical Design, Scholars Argue |journal=] |volume=49 |issue=35 |page=A18 |url= http://chronicle.com/weekly/v49/i35/35a01801.htm |access-date=2007-05-27}}</ref> As Lott critics Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III pointed out, "Lott and Mustard have made an important scholarly contribution in establishing that these laws have not led to the massive bloodbath of death and injury that some of their opponents feared. On the other hand, we find that the statistical evidence that these laws have reduced crime is limited, sporadic, and extraordinarily fragile."<ref name="shootdown" /> A 2008 article in '']'' surveyed peer-reviewed empirical academic studies, and found that 10 supported the proposition that right-to-carry reduces crime, 8 supported no significant effect and none supported an increase.<ref>, ''Econ Journal Watch'' Vol. 5, Iss. 3 (2008).</ref> The article was rebutted by ] and ] in the same journal in 2009.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://econjwatch.org/articles/yet-another-refutation-of-the-more-guns-less-crime-hypothesis-with-some-help-from-moody-and-marvell|title=Yet Another Refutation of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis—With Some Help From Moody and Marvell · Econ Journal Watch: Law and economics, criminal justice policy, guns and crime|website=econjwatch.org|language=en|access-date=2017-09-13}}</ref>


In 2013, Lott founded the nonprofit organization Crime Prevention Research Center to study the relationship between gun laws and crime. As of July 2015, he was also the organization's president.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/07/john-lott-guns-crime-data | title=When the Gun Lobby Tries to Justify Firearms Everywhere, It Turns to This Guy | work=Mother Jones | date=28 July 2015 | access-date=6 February 2016 | author=Lurie, Julia}}</ref> The board of directors for the organization includes guitarist ], conservative talkshow host ] and former sheriff ].<ref name=":2" /> In 2020, Lott left the organization to take a position in the Trump administration.<ref name=":2" /> In 2013, Lott founded the nonprofit organization Crime Prevention Research Center to study the relationship between gun laws and crime. As of July 2015, he was also the organization's president.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/07/john-lott-guns-crime-data | title=When the Gun Lobby Tries to Justify Firearms Everywhere, It Turns to This Guy | work=Mother Jones | date=28 July 2015 | access-date=6 February 2016 | author=Lurie, Julia}}</ref> The board of directors for the organization includes guitarist ], conservative talkshow host ] and former sheriff ].<ref name=":2" /> In 2020, Lott left the organization to take a position in the Trump administration.<ref name=":2" />


===Defensive gun use=== ===Defensive gun use===

{{Main|Defensive gun use}} {{Main|Defensive gun use}}
Lott argues in both ''More Guns, Less Crime'' and ''The Bias Against Guns'' that defensive gun use (DGU) is underreported, noting that in general, only shootings ending in fatalities are discussed in news stories. In ''More Guns, Less Crime'', Lott writes that "ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police." In May 1998, Lott wrote that "national surveys" suggested that "98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack." Lott cited similar figures in op-eds in '']''<ref name="Lott98WSJ">{{cite news|first=John R. |last=Lott Jr. |title=Keep Guns out of Lawyers' Hands |newspaper=Wall Street Journal |page=1 |date=1998-06-23}}</ref> and the '']''.<ref name="Lott98LAT">{{cite news|first=John R. |last=Lott Jr. |title=Cities Target Gun Makers in Bogus Lawsuits |newspaper=] |page=7 |date=1998-12-01}}</ref> Lott argues in both ''More Guns, Less Crime'' and ''The Bias Against Guns'' that defensive gun use (DGU) is underreported, noting that in general, only shootings ending in fatalities are discussed in news stories. In ''More Guns, Less Crime'', Lott writes that "ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police." In May 1998, Lott wrote that "national surveys" suggested that "98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack." Lott cited similar figures in op-eds in '']''<ref name="Lott98WSJ">{{cite news|first=John R. |last=Lott Jr. |title=Keep Guns out of Lawyers' Hands |newspaper=Wall Street Journal |page=1 |date=1998-06-23}}</ref> and the '']''.<ref name="Lott98LAT">{{cite news|first=John R. |last=Lott Jr. |title=Cities Target Gun Makers in Bogus Lawsuits |newspaper=] |page=7 |date=1998-12-01}}</ref>


In 2002, he said that brandishing a weapon was sufficient to stop an attack 95% of the time. Other researchers criticized his methodology. A study in ''Public Opinion Quarterly'' said that his sample size of 1,015 respondents was too small for the study to be accurate and that the majority of similar studies suggest a value between 70 and 80 percent.<ref name="2002studycriticism">{{Cite journal|last=McDowall |first=David |date=Summer 2005 |journal=] |title=John R. Lott Jr.'s Defensive Gun Brandishing Estimates |volume=69 |issue=2 |pages=246–263 |doi=10.1093/poq/nfi015}}</ref> According to Lott, Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz's 1994 estimate rises to 92 percent when brandishing and warning shots are added together.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/General-Disc-9702-Surveys.pdf | title=What Surveys Can Help Us Understand About Guns? | access-date=22 June 2016 | author=Lott, John}}</ref>{{rp|8}} Lott said that the lower rates found by others was at least in part due to the different questions that were asked.<ref>Discussion of different surveys on defensive gun use </ref> In 2002, he said that brandishing a weapon was sufficient to stop an attack 95% of the time. Other researchers criticized his methodology. A study in ''Public Opinion Quarterly'' said that his sample size of 1,015 respondents was too small for the study to be accurate and that the majority of similar studies suggest a value between 70 and 80 percent.<ref name="2002studycriticism">{{Cite journal|last=McDowall |first=David |date=Summer 2005 |journal=] |title=John R. Lott Jr.'s Defensive Gun Brandishing Estimates |volume=69 |issue=2 |pages=246–263 |doi=10.1093/poq/nfi015}}</ref> According to Lott, Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz's 1994 estimate rises to 92 percent when brandishing and warning shots are added together.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/General-Disc-9702-Surveys.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/General-Disc-9702-Surveys.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live | title=What Surveys Can Help Us Understand About Guns? | access-date=22 June 2016 | author=Lott, John|page=8}}</ref> Lott said that the lower rates found by others was at least in part due to the different questions that were asked.<ref>Discussion of different surveys on defensive gun use </ref>


=== Defamation suit === === Defamation suit ===
On April 10, 2006, John Lott filed suit<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.overlawyered.com/lott_complaint.pdf/Lott%20v%20Levitt.pdf |title=PDF of Lott's complaint v. Levitt |access-date=August 27, 2007 |archive-date=September 27, 2007 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070927213215/http://www.overlawyered.com/lott_complaint.pdf/Lott%20v%20Levitt.pdf }}</ref> for ] against ] and ] over the book '']'' and against Levitt over a series of emails to John McCall. In the book ''Freakonomics'', Levitt and coauthor ] claimed that the results of Lott's research in ''More Guns, Less Crime'' had not been replicated by other academics. In the emails to economist John McCall, who had pointed to a number of papers in different academic publications that had replicated Lott's work, Levitt wrote that the work by several authors supporting Lott in a special 2001 issue of the ''Journal of Law and Economics'' had not been peer-reviewed, Lott had paid the University of Chicago Press to publish the papers, and that papers with results opposite of Lott's had been blocked from publication in that issue.<ref>{{cite news|last=Higgins|first=Michael|date=2006-04-11|title=Best-seller leads scholar to file lawsuit; Defamation allegation targets U. of C. author|page=3|newspaper=Chicago Tribune}}</ref> A federal judge found that Levitt's replication claim in ''Freakonomics'' was not defamation but found merit in Lott's complaint over the email claims.<ref>"" on John Lott's website</ref> The dismissal was affirmed by a three-judge panel of The United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit on February 11, 2009.<ref>" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090216142918/http://www.ca7.uscourts.gov/fdocs/docs.fwx?submit=rss_sho&shofile=07-3095_022.pdf|date=2009-02-16}}"</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Staff|first=Courthouse News|date=2009-02-13|title=Professor Wasn't Defamed by 'Freakonomics' Author|url=https://www.courthousenews.com/professor-wasnt-defamed-by-freakonomics-author/|access-date=2021-01-02|language=en-US}}</ref>


A settlement was reached over the claims made by Levitt in the emails to McCall whereby Levitt did not have to issue a formal apology but rather send a letter of clarification to John McCall that the issue of the ''Journal of Law and Economics'' was peer-reviewed, and that Lott had not improperly influenced the editors.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Gajda|first=Amy|title=The Trials of Academe|year=2010|publisher=Harvard University Press|isbn=978-0-674-05386-1|location=Harvard University Press|pages=166–170|doi=10.2307/j.ctvjghvr3|s2cid=198001655 }}</ref><ref name="settlement">{{Cite journal|last=Glenn|first=David|date=2007-08-10|title=Dueling Economists Reach Settlement in Defamation Lawsuit|url=http://chronicle.com/article/Dueling-Economists-Reach/6720|journal=Chronicle of Higher Education|volume=53|issue=49|page=10}}</ref><ref>""</ref> The ''Chronicle of Higher Education'' characterized Levitt's letter as offering "a doozy of a concession."<ref></ref>
On April 10, 2006, John Lott filed suit<ref></ref> for ] against ] and ] over the book '']'' and against Levitt over a series of emails to John McCall. In the book ''Freakonomics'', Levitt and coauthor ] claimed that the results of Lott's research in ''More Guns, Less Crime'' had not been replicated by other academics. In the emails to economist John McCall, who had pointed to a number of papers in different academic publications that had replicated Lott's work, Levitt wrote that the work by several authors supporting Lott in a special 2001 issue of the ''Journal of Law and Economics'' had not been peer reviewed, Lott had paid the University of Chicago Press to publish the papers, and that papers with results opposite of Lott's had been blocked from publication in that issue.<ref>{{cite news|last=Higgins|first=Michael|date=2006-04-11|title=Best-seller leads scholar to file lawsuit; Defamation allegation targets U. of C. author|page=3|newspaper=Chicago Tribune}}</ref> A federal judge found that Levitt's replication claim in ''Freakonomics'' was not defamation but found merit in Lott's complaint over the email claims.<ref>"" on John Lott's website</ref> The dismissal was affirmed by a three-judge panel of The United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit on February 11, 2009.<ref>" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090216142918/http://www.ca7.uscourts.gov/fdocs/docs.fwx?submit=rss_sho&shofile=07-3095_022.pdf|date=2009-02-16}}"</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Staff|first=Courthouse News|date=2009-02-13|title=Professor Wasn't Defamed by 'Freakonomics' Author|url=https://www.courthousenews.com/professor-wasnt-defamed-by-freakonomics-author/|access-date=2021-01-02|language=en-US}}</ref>

A settlement was reached over the claims made by Levitt in the emails to McCall whereby Levitt did not have to issue a formal apology but rather send a letter of clarification to John McCall that the issue of the ''Journal of Law and Economics'' was peer-reviewed, and that Lott had not improperly influenced the editors.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Gajda|first=Amy|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvjghvr3|title=The Trials of Academe|date=2010-02-15|publisher=Harvard University Press|isbn=978-0-674-05386-1|location=Harvard University Press|pages=166–170|doi=10.2307/j.ctvjghvr3}}</ref><ref name="settlement">{{Cite journal|last=Glenn|first=David|date=2007-08-10|title=Dueling Economists Reach Settlement in Defamation Lawsuit|url=http://chronicle.com/article/Dueling-Economists-Reach/6720|journal=Chronicle of Higher Education|volume=53|issue=49|page=10}}</ref><ref>""</ref> The ''Chronicle of Higher Education'' characterized Levitt's letter as offering "a doozy of a concession."<ref></ref>


===Disputed survey=== ===Disputed survey===
In the course of a dispute with ] in 1999–2000,<ref name="DuncanNumbers"> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120525025619/http://www.asc41.com/Criminologist/2000/January-February%202000.htm|date=2012-05-25}}, '']'', Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan/Feb 2000, pp. 1, 3–7.</ref><ref name="reply"> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120525030504/http://www.asc41.com/Criminologist/2000/September-October%202000.htm |date=May 25, 2012 }}, ''The Criminologist'', Vol. 25, No. 5, Sep/Oct 2000, pp. 1, 6.</ref> Lott claimed to have undertaken a national survey of 2,424 respondents in 1997, the results of which were the source for claims he had made beginning in 1997.<ref name="reply" /> However, in 2000 Lott was unable to produce the data or any records showing that the survey had been undertaken. He said the 1997 hard drive crash that had affected several projects with co-authors had destroyed his survey data set,<ref>{{cite web|last=Sanchez|first=Julian|author-link=Julian Sanchez (writer)|date=February 13, 2003|title=Red Herrings|url=http://www.juliansanchez.com/2003/02/13/red-herrings/|access-date=July 28, 2016|work=Julian Sanchez blog}} (Julian Sanchez noted that the 1997 hard drive crash is widely accepted as a fact; the dispute is over the lack of solid evidence that Lott lost a survey data set in that crash)</ref> the original tally sheets had been abandoned with other personal property in his move from Chicago to Yale, and he could not recall the names of any of the students who he said had worked on it. Critics questioned whether the survey had ever taken place,<ref name="reason">{{cite web|last=Sanchez|first=Julian|date=May 2003|title=The Mystery of Mary Rosh|url=http://www.reason.com/news/show/28771.html|access-date=2007-06-15|work=]}}</ref> but Lott defends the survey's existence and accuracy.<ref name="surveysupport">{{cite web|title=Evidence of Survey|url=http://johnrlott.tripod.com/surveysupport.html}}, {{cite web|title=2002 Survey|url=http://www.johnlott.org/files/GeneralDisc97_02Surveys.zip}}</ref>

In the course of a dispute with ] in 1999–2000,<ref name="DuncanNumbers"> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120525025619/http://www.asc41.com/Criminologist/2000/January-February%202000.htm|date=2012-05-25}}, '']'', Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan/Feb 2000, p. 1, 3–7.</ref><ref name="reply">, ''The Criminologist'', Vol. 25, No. 5, Sep/Oct 2000, page 1, 6.</ref> Lott claimed to have undertaken a national survey of 2,424 respondents in 1997, the results of which were the source for claims he had made beginning in 1997.<ref name="reply" /> However, in 2000 Lott was unable to produce the data or any records showing that the survey had been undertaken. He said the 1997 hard drive crash that had affected several projects with co-authors had destroyed his survey data set,<ref>{{cite web|last=Sanchez|first=Julian|author-link=Julian Sanchez (writer)|date=February 13, 2003|title=Red Herrings|url=http://www.juliansanchez.com/2003/02/13/red-herrings/|access-date=July 28, 2016|work=Julian Sanchez blog}} (Julian Sanchez noted that the 1997 harddrive crash is widely accepted as a fact; the dispute is over the lack of solid evidence that Lott lost a survey data set in that crash)</ref> the original tally sheets had been abandoned with other personal property in his move from Chicago to Yale, and he could not recall the names of any of the students who he said had worked on it. Critics questioned whether the survey had ever taken place,<ref name="reason">{{cite web|last=Sanchez|first=Julian|date=May 2003|title=The Mystery of Mary Rosh|url=http://www.reason.com/news/show/28771.html|access-date=2007-06-15|work=]}}</ref> but Lott defends the survey's existence and accuracy.<ref name="surveysupport">{{cite web|title=Evidence of Survey|url=http://johnrlott.tripod.com/surveysupport.html}}, {{cite web|title=2002 Survey|url=http://www.johnlott.org/files/GeneralDisc97_02Surveys.zip}}</ref>


=== Mary Rosh persona === === Mary Rosh persona ===
In response to the dispute surrounding the missing survey, Lott used a ] by the name of "Mary Rosh" to defend his own works on ] and elsewhere. After investigative work by ] blogger ], Lott admitted to using the Mary Rosh persona.<ref name="reason" />


Further accusations claimed that Lott praised himself while posing as one of his former students<ref name="mj">] in ]: ''.'' October 13, 2003</ref><ref name="wifeandson">{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/2003/02/01/scholar-invents-fan-to-answer-his-critics/f3ae3f46-68d6-4eee-a65e-1775d45e2133/ |title=Scholar Invents Fan to Answer His Critics |first=Richard |last=Morin |newspaper=] |date=February 1, 2003 |page=C01}}</ref> and that "Rosh" was used to post a favorable review of ''More Guns, Less Crime'' on ]. Lott has claimed that the review was written by his son and wife.<ref name="wifeandson" /> "I probably shouldn't have done it—I know I shouldn't have done it—but it's hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously," Lott told '']'' in 2003.<ref name="wifeandson" />
In response to the dispute surrounding the missing survey, Lott used a ] by the name of "Mary Rosh" to defend his own works on ] and elsewhere. After investigative work by ] blogger ], Lott admitted to use of the Mary Rosh persona.<ref name="reason" />

Further accusations claimed that Lott praised himself while posing as one of his former students<ref name="mj">] in ]: ''.'' October 13, 2003</ref><ref name="wifeandson">. Richard Morin, '']'', February 1, 2003; Page C01</ref> and that "Rosh" was used to post a favorable review of ''More Guns, Less Crime'' on ]. Lott has claimed that the review was written by his son and wife.<ref name="wifeandson" /> "I probably shouldn't have done it—I know I shouldn't have done it—but it's hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously," Lott told '']'' in 2003.<ref name="wifeandson" />


===Safe storage gun laws=== ===Safe storage gun laws===


In a 2001 study, Lott and John E. Whitley reported that safe-storage gun laws not only did not reduce juvenile suicides or accidental gun deaths, but that they also increased rates of violent and property crime.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Lott Jr.|first1=John R.|last2=Whitley|first2=John E.|title=Safe‐Storage Gun Laws: Accidental Deaths, Suicides, and Crime|url=http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Lott-Whitley-Safe-Storage-Laws.pdf|journal=]|date=October 2001|volume=44|issue=S2|pages=659–689|doi=10.1086/338346|citeseerx=10.1.1.180.3066|s2cid=154446568}}</ref> The study was criticized by Webster et al. in the '']'' for using ] despite the fact that the data used in the study on youth suicides was "highly skewed and ]", and because the vast majority of crimes that Lott and Whitley claimed increased due to safe-storage laws occurred outside the home.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Webster|first1=Daniel W.|title=Association Between Youth-Focused Firearm Laws and Youth Suicides|journal=]|date=4 August 2004|volume=292|issue=5|pages=594–601|doi=10.1001/jama.292.5.594|pmid=15292085|doi-access=free}}</ref> Webster and Carroll also wrote in ''Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia of History, Politics, Culture, and the Law'' that the Lott and Whitley study's findings with respect to crime were inconsistent with prior research.<ref>{{cite book | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=oD46JBOhMU0C | title=Guns in American Society | publisher=ABC-CLIO | author=Carter, Gregg Lee | year=2002 | pages=151| isbn=9780313386701 }}</ref> In a 2001 study, Lott and John E. Whitley reported that safe-storage gun laws not only did not reduce juvenile suicides or accidental gun deaths, but that they also increased rates of violent and property crime.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Lott Jr.|first1=John R.|last2=Whitley|first2=John E.|title=Safe-Storage Gun Laws: Accidental Deaths, Suicides, and Crime|url=http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Lott-Whitley-Safe-Storage-Laws.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Lott-Whitley-Safe-Storage-Laws.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live|journal=]|date=October 2001|volume=44|issue=S2|pages=659–689|doi=10.1086/338346|citeseerx=10.1.1.180.3066|s2cid=154446568}}</ref> The study was criticized by Webster et al. in the '']'' for using ] despite the fact that the data used in the study on youth suicides was "highly skewed and ]", and because the vast majority of crimes that Lott and Whitley claimed increased due to safe-storage laws occurred outside the home.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Webster|first1=Daniel W.|title=Association Between Youth-Focused Firearm Laws and Youth Suicides|journal=]|date=4 August 2004|volume=292|issue=5|pages=594–601|doi=10.1001/jama.292.5.594|pmid=15292085|doi-access=free}}</ref> Webster and Carroll also wrote in ''Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia of History, Politics, Culture, and the Law'' that the Lott and Whitley study's findings with respect to crime were inconsistent with prior research.<ref>{{cite book | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=oD46JBOhMU0C | title=Guns in American Society | publisher=ABC-CLIO | author=Carter, Gregg Lee | year=2002 | page=151| isbn=978-0-313-38670-1 }}</ref>


==Other research== ==Other research and events==
In a study published in 2000, Lott concluded that most of the large recent increases in campaign spending for state and federal offices can be explained by higher government spending.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.2139/ssrn.245336 |url=https://ssrn.com/abstract=245336 |title=A Simple Explanation for Why Campaign Expenditures are Increasing: The Government is Getting Bigger |first=John R. Jr. |last=Lott |journal=Journal of Law and Economics |date=October 2000 | s2cid=153298336 }}</ref> Lott also supports the conclusion that higher quality judges, measured by their output once they are on the court (e.g., number of citations to their opinions or number of published opinions), take longer to get confirmed.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-1461.2005.00056.x/full|doi = 10.1111/j.1740-1461.2005.00056.x|title = The Judicial Confirmation Process: The Difficulty with Being Smart|year = 2005|last1 = Lott|first1 = John R.|journal = Journal of Empirical Legal Studies|volume = 2|issue = 3|pages = 407–447}}</ref>

In a study published in 2000, Lott concluded that most of the large recent increases in campaign spending for state and federal offices can be explained by higher government spending.<ref>"" by John R. Lott Jr., Journal of Law and Economics., October 2000</ref> Lott also supports the conclusion that higher quality judges, measured by their output once they are on the court (e.g., number of citations to their opinions or number of published opinions), take longer to get confirmed.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-1461.2005.00056.x/full|doi = 10.1111/j.1740-1461.2005.00056.x|title = The Judicial Confirmation Process: The Difficulty with Being Smart|year = 2005|last1 = Lott|first1 = John R.|journal = Journal of Empirical Legal Studies|volume = 2|issue = 3|pages = 407–447}}</ref>


=== Lost Bush votes in the 2000 presidential election === === Lost Bush votes in the 2000 presidential election ===
In 2000, Lott argued, using a regression analysis, that George W. Bush lost at least 10,000 votes in Florida after the media incorrectly called the state for Al Gore while voting was still ongoing in the more conservative parts of the state.<ref name=":1">{{Cite book|last1=Brady|first1=Henry E.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=1VQK7EGohB4C|title=Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards|last2=Collier|first2=David|date=2004|publisher=Rowman & Littlefield|isbn=978-0-7425-1125-5|language=en}}</ref> Lott's argument is used in the influential social science methodology textbook ''Rethinking Social Inquiry'' (edited by Henry Brady and David Collier) as an example of poor methodology. Contrary to Lott's study, they show that the number of lost Bush votes ranged from 28 to 56.<ref name=":1" />

In 2000, Lott argued, using a regression analysis, that George W. Bush lost at least 10,000 votes in Florida after the media incorrectly called the state for Al Gore while voting was still on-going in the more conservative parts of the state.<ref name=":1">{{Cite book|last1=Brady|first1=Henry E.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=1VQK7EGohB4C|title=Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards|last2=Collier|first2=David|date=2004|publisher=Rowman & Littlefield|isbn=9780742511255|language=en}}</ref> Lott's argument is used in the influential social science methodology textbook ''Rethinking Social Inquiry'' (edited by Henry Brady and David Collier) as an example of poor methodology. Contrary to Lott's study, they show that the number of lost Bush votes ranged from 28 to 56.<ref name=":1" />


=== Abortion and crime === === Abortion and crime ===
With John Whitley at the University of Adelaide, Lott published a study that argued that liberalization of abortion laws led to higher murder rates.<ref>John R. Lott Jr. and John E. Whitley, "Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births", (2001) working paper and published article.</ref> In a review of the literature on the relationship between abortion and crime, ], an economist at Baruch College and the National Bureau of Economic Research, praised Lott and Whitley for gathering additional data on abortion but criticized the methodology that they used.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Joyce |first=Theodore J. |date=June 2009 |title=Abortion and Crime: A Review |doi=10.3386/w15098|s2cid=74738947 |journal=] |series=Working Paper Series |url=http://www.nber.org/papers/w15098 |doi-access=free }}</ref>

With John Whitley at the University of Adelaide, Lott published a study that argued that liberalization of abortion laws led to higher murder rates.<ref>John R. Lott Jr. and John E. Whitley, "Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births", (2001) working paper and published article.</ref> In a review of the literature on the relationship between abortion and crime, ], an economist at Baruch College and the National Bureau of Economic Research, praised Lott and Whitley for gathering additional data on abortion but criticized the methodology that they used.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Joyce|first=Theodore J.|date=June 2009|title=Abortion and Crime: A Review|doi=10.3386/w15098|s2cid=74738947|url=http://www.nber.org/papers/w15098}}</ref>


=== Illegal immigration and crime === === Illegal immigration and crime ===
Lott has non-peer-reviewed research that purports to show that undocumented immigrants are more crime-prone than U.S. citizens. In doing so, Lott lumped together both legal and illegal immigrants in prison into a category for illegal immigrants, leading to an elevated crime rate for illegal immigrants.<ref name=":5">{{Cite web|last=Lind|first=Dara|date=2018-03-01|title=The right-wing effort to paint DREAMers as a nightmare|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17054546/immigration-crime-dreamers-daca-gangs|access-date=2021-01-04|website=Vox|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|date=2018-02-05|title=The Fatal Flaw in John R. Lott Jr.'s Study on Illegal Immigrant Crime in Arizona|url=https://www.cato.org/blog/fatal-flaw-john-r-lott-jrs-study-illegal-immigrant-crime-arizona|access-date=2021-01-04|website=Cato Institute|language=en}}</ref> ''The Washington Post'' fact-checker wrote that this was a "significant flaw in Lott's study that undercuts his conclusion. Lott says the overall thrust of his study still holds, but the issue muddles his research and invites guesswork as to the actual crime rate for the undocumented immigrant population in Arizona."<ref>{{Cite news|date=2018|title=Questions raised about study that links undocumented immigrants to higher crime|newspaper=The Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/03/21/questions-raised-about-a-study-that-links-undocumented-immigrants-to-higher-crime/?noredirect=on}}</ref>

Lott has non-peer-reviewed research that purports to show that undocumented immigrants are more crime-prone than U.S. citizens. In doing so, Lott lumped together both legal and illegal immigrants in prison into a category for illegal immigrants, leading to an elevated crime rate for illegal immigrants.<ref name=":5">{{Cite web|last=Lind|first=Dara|date=2018-03-01|title=The right-wing effort to paint DREAMers as a nightmare|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17054546/immigration-crime-dreamers-daca-gangs|access-date=2021-01-04|website=Vox|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|date=2018-02-05|title=The Fatal Flaw in John R. Lott Jr.'s Study on Illegal Immigrant Crime in Arizona|url=https://www.cato.org/blog/fatal-flaw-john-r-lott-jrs-study-illegal-immigrant-crime-arizona|access-date=2021-01-04|website=Cato Institute|language=en}}</ref> ''The Washington Post'' fact-checker wrote that this was a "significant flaw in Lott's study that undercuts his conclusion. Lott says the overall thrust of his study still holds, but the issue muddles his research and invites guesswork as to the actual crime rate for the undocumented immigrant population in Arizona."<ref>{{Cite news|date=2018|title=Questions raised about study that links undocumented immigrants to higher crime|work=The Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/03/21/questions-raised-about-a-study-that-links-undocumented-immigrants-to-higher-crime/?noredirect=on}}</ref>


Lott's claims were heavily promoted by the Trump administration to justify its anti-immigration policies, in particular their attempts to end DACA.<ref name=":5" /><ref>{{Cite web|last=Exstrum|first=Olivia|title=The guy behind the bogus immigration report has a long history of terrible and misleading research|url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/the-guy-behind-the-bogus-immigration-report-has-a-long-history-of-terrible-and-misleading-research/|access-date=2021-01-04|website=Mother Jones|language=en-US}}</ref> Lott's claims were heavily promoted by the Trump administration to justify its anti-immigration policies, in particular their attempts to end DACA.<ref name=":5" /><ref>{{Cite web|last=Exstrum|first=Olivia|title=The guy behind the bogus immigration report has a long history of terrible and misleading research|url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/the-guy-behind-the-bogus-immigration-report-has-a-long-history-of-terrible-and-misleading-research/|access-date=2021-01-04|website=Mother Jones|language=en-US}}</ref>


=== Women's suffrage and government growth === === Women's suffrage and government growth ===
According to a study by Lott and Larry Kenny, "women's suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives, and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise."<ref>{{cite journal |url=https://ssrn.com/abstract=160530 |title=How Dramatically Did Women's Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of Government? |first1=John R. Jr. |last1=Lott |first2=Larry |last2=Kenny |journal=Journal of Political Economy |year=1999|doi=10.2139/ssrn.160530 }}</ref>

According to a study by Lott and Larry Kenny, "women's suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives, and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise."<ref>"" by John R. Lott Jr. and Larry Kenny, Journal of Political Economy, 1999</ref>


=== Affirmative action in police departments === === Affirmative action in police departments ===
Lott published a study arguing that affirmative action in the hiring of police reduced the overall quality of all officers and increased crime. The most adverse effects of these hiring policies have occurred in the most heavily black-populated cities. There is no consistent evidence that crime rates rise when standards for hiring women are changed.<ref>{{cite journal |url=https://ssrn.com/abstract=231100 |title=Does a Helping Hand Put Others At Risk?: Affirmative Action, Police Departments, and Crime |first=John R. Jr. |last=Lott |journal=Economic Inquiry |date=April 2000 |volume=38 |issue=2 |pages=239–277 |doi=10.1093/ei/38.2.239 }}</ref>

Lott published a study arguing that affirmative action in hiring of police reduced the overall quality of all officers and increased crime. The most adverse effects of these hiring policies have occurred in the most heavily black populated cities. There is no consistent evidence that crime rates rise when standards for hiring women are changed.<ref>"" by John R. Lott Jr. Economic Inquiry, April 2000</ref>


=== Environmental regulations === === Environmental regulations ===
Together with John Karpoff and Eric Wehrly at the University of Washington, Lott has worked to show the importance of government regulations through both legal and regulatory penalties and the weaknesses of reputational penalties in reducing ].<ref>{{cite journal |url=https://ssrn.com/abstract=747824 |title=The Reputational Penalties for Environmental Violations: Empirical Evidence |first1=Jonathan M. |last1=Karpoff |first2=John R. Jr. |last2=Lott |first3=Eric |last3=Wehrly |journal=Journal of Law and Economics |date=August 16, 2005 |volume=48 |issue=2 |pages=653–675 |doi=10.1086/430806 |s2cid=154290101 }}</ref> Firms violating environmental laws suffer statistically significant losses in the market value of firm equity. The losses are of similar magnitudes to the legal penalties imposed; and in the cross section, the market value loss is related to the size of the legal penalty.

Together with John Karpoff and Eric Wehrly at the University of Washington, Lott has worked to show the importance of government regulations through both legal and regulatory penalties and the weaknesses of reputational penalties in reducing ].<ref>"" by Jonathan M. Karpoff, John R. Lott Jr., Eric Wehrly, Journal of Law and Economics</ref> Firms violating environmental laws suffer statistically significant losses in the market value of firm equity. The losses are of similar magnitudes to the legal penalties imposed; and in the cross section, the market value loss is related to the size of the legal penalty.


=== Voter fraud claims === === Voter fraud claims ===


{{further|Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election}} {{further|Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election}}
In October 2020, Lott was appointed as a senior adviser for research and statistics at the ] within the ]<ref name=":2">{{cite web | last1=Gerstein | first1=Josh | title=Controversial gun advocate hired by Justice Department last month | url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/controversial-gun-advocate-justice-department-440251 | date=November 24, 2020 | work=] | access-date=November 24, 2020}}</ref> Lott resigned from the DoJ on January 16, 2021.<ref>{{cite news |title=John Lott, Discredited Gun Researcher, Leaves DOJ |url=https://www.thetrace.org/2021/01/discredited-gun-researcher-out-at-justice-department/?fbclid=IwAR1t24fYWiqMnYydbZqD4cbzMr-jHyuqx_qetFgGW8mUXBB1LRQER0GGXJc |access-date=January 22, 2021 |work=The Trace |date=21 January 2021 |language=en-us}}</ref> Lott has claimed there was voter fraud in the ].<ref>{{Cite web|last=Gerstein|first=Josh|title=Controversial gun advocate hired by Justice Department last month|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/controversial-gun-advocate-justice-department-440251|access-date=2021-01-02|website=POLITICO|language=en}}</ref> He argued there was "irregularities" in the ] in ], and later wrote a paper claiming there was evidence of fraud in the absentee ballots in ] and ].<ref name=":6">{{Cite web|last=Hansen|first=Jordan|title=GOP-backed group claims 'irregularities' on Missoula County 2020 ballots|url=https://missoulian.com/news/local/gop-backed-group-claims-irregularities-on-missoula-county-2020-ballots/article_c43cc57c-ff31-54c3-9359-4a5d042cb799.html|access-date=2021-09-14|website=missoulian.com|language=en}}</ref> A 2021 '']'' study by political scientists at Stanford University and the University of Chicago rebutted Lott's paper as being not even remotely convincing, writing that his analysis was "entirely dependent on the completely arbitrary order in which pairs of precincts in other counties are entered in the dataset" and that his conclusions about voter fraud were "utterly baseless."<ref name=":6" /><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Eggers|first=Andrew C.|last2=Garro|first2=Haritz|last3=Grimmer|first3=Justin|date=2021-11-09|title=No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election|url=https://www.pnas.org/content/118/45/e2103619118|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=118|issue=45|doi=10.1073/pnas.2103619118|issn=0027-8424|pmid=34728563}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Grimmer |first1=Justin |title=Comment On "A Simple Test For The Extent Of Voter Fraud With Absentee Ballots In The 2020 Presidential Election" |url=https://www.hoover.org/research/comment-simple-test-extent-voterfraud-absentee-ballots-2020-presidentialelection |website=] |access-date=14 September 2021 |date=5 January 2021}}</ref> In October 2020, Lott was appointed as a senior adviser for research and statistics at the ] within the ] in the ].<ref name=":2">{{cite web | last1=Gerstein | first1=Josh | title=Controversial gun advocate hired by Justice Department last month | url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/controversial-gun-advocate-justice-department-440251 | date=November 24, 2020 | work=] | access-date=November 24, 2020}}</ref> Lott resigned from the DoJ on January 16, 2021.<ref>{{cite news |title=John Lott, Discredited Gun Researcher, Leaves DOJ |url=https://www.thetrace.org/2021/01/discredited-gun-researcher-out-at-justice-department/ |access-date=January 22, 2021 |work=The Trace |date=21 January 2021 |language=en-us}}</ref> Lott has claimed there was voter fraud in the ].<ref>{{Cite web|last=Gerstein|first=Josh|title=Controversial gun advocate hired by Justice Department last month|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/controversial-gun-advocate-justice-department-440251|access-date=2021-01-02|website=Politico |date=November 24, 2020 |language=en}}</ref> He argued there was "irregularities" in the ] in ], and later wrote a paper claiming there was evidence of fraud in the absentee ballots in ] and ].<ref name=":6">{{Cite web|last=Hansen|first=Jordan|title=GOP-backed group claims 'irregularities' on Missoula County 2020 ballots|url=https://missoulian.com/news/local/gop-backed-group-claims-irregularities-on-missoula-county-2020-ballots/article_c43cc57c-ff31-54c3-9359-4a5d042cb799.html|access-date=2021-09-14|website=missoulian.com|date=March 30, 2021 |language=en}}</ref> A 2021 '']'' study by political scientists at Stanford University and the University of Chicago rebutted Lott's paper as being not even remotely convincing, writing that his analysis was "entirely dependent on the completely arbitrary order in which pairs of precincts in other counties are entered in the dataset" and that his conclusions about voter fraud were "utterly baseless."<ref name=":6" /><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Eggers|first1=Andrew C.|last2=Garro|first2=Haritz|last3=Grimmer|first3=Justin|date=2021-11-09|title=No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=118|issue=45|doi=10.1073/pnas.2103619118|issn=0027-8424|pmid=34728563|pmc=8609310 |bibcode=2021PNAS..11803619E |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Grimmer |first1=Justin |title=Comment On 'A Simple Test For The Extent Of Voter Fraud With Absentee Ballots In The 2020 Presidential Election' |url=https://www.hoover.org/research/comment-simple-test-extent-voterfraud-absentee-ballots-2020-presidentialelection |website=] |access-date=14 September 2021 |date=5 January 2021}}</ref>


==2021 "graduation address" event== === 2021 "graduation address" event ===
On June 4, 2021, two parents of a child killed in the 2018 shooting at ] invited Lott and ] to deliver what they falsely said was a dress rehearsal for a 2021 graduation address for a fictitious school called "the James Madison Academy". The space for the audience contained 3,044 empty folding chairs. Lott first realized that the event was a staged attempt to call attention to school shootings, and not a genuine commencement address dress rehearsal, when news media asked him to comment on segments of video of the "dress rehearsal" that the organizers posted on the internet. They said that the empty chairs were intended to represent the victims of school shootings who would never graduate from high school. In a local ] news interview, Lott said that he is not opposed to all forms of background checks but simply believes that background checks broadly discriminate against persons of color, primarily black and Hispanic, among potential gun buyers.<ref name=Clark1>{{cite web |last1=Clark |first1=Lauren |title=Gun activists tricked into speaking at fake Las Vegas high school graduation |url=https://news3lv.com/amp/news/local/gun-activists-tricked-into-speaking-at-fake-las-vegas-high-school-graduation |website=3LV News |date=June 23, 2021 |access-date=8 September 2021}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/amberjamieson/nra-president-graduation-speech|title = A Parkland Victim's Dad Tricked a Former NRA President into Speaking at a Fake Graduation| website=] | date=June 23, 2021 }}</ref>
{{undue|section|date=March 2022}}
On June 4, 2021, two parents of a child killed in the 2018 shooting at ] misled Lott and ] into believing they were to give a dress rehearsal for a 2021 graduation address for a fictitious school called, "the James Madison Academy". The space for the audience was made up of 3,044 empty folding chairs which were meant to represent victims of school shootings. According to ], Lott claims he was instructed "...they insisted that I had to have half the talk...be on background checks in particular", while Lott says this was his first commencement address, he went on to assert, "So I said well okay if that's really what you want I can do that but it seemed a little bit weird for a commencement address."<ref name=Clark1>{{cite web |last1=Clark |first1=Lauren |title=Gun activists tricked into speaking at fake Las Vegas high school graduation |url=https://news3lv.com/amp/news/local/gun-activists-tricked-into-speaking-at-fake-las-vegas-high-school-graduation |website=3LV News |publisher=3LV News |access-date=8 September 2021}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/amberjamieson/nra-president-graduation-speech|title = A Parkland Victim's Dad Tricked a Former NRA President into Speaking at a Fake Graduation}}</ref>

Lott discovered that the event was a staged attempt to call attention to school shootings, and not a genuine commencement address dress rehearsal when the parents orchestrating the faux event posted segments of video that was filmed of the "dress rehearsal" to the internet. Lott says, "I gave a 15-min address, what they put online is about one minute of that 15-minute address, and it kind of chops up and takes out of context numerous points I was making," he said. "So it's quite disturbing, in that sense." Lott then went on to say in an interview local ] news that he is not opposed to all forms of background checks, but simply that he believes that background checks made broadly discriminate against persons of color, primarily black and hispanic potential gun buyers.<ref name=Clark1/>

Will Pregman, an activist associated with a progressive group based in Nevada called Battle Born Progress said of the event, "They agreed to speak to a school without doing, ironically, a background check to find out if this was a valid school or a real event."<ref name=Clark1/>


==Bibliography== ==Bibliography==
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* ''Dumbing Down the Courts: How Politics Keeps the Smartest Judges Off the Bench'' ({{ISBN|978-1626522497}}) * ''Dumbing Down the Courts: How Politics Keeps the Smartest Judges Off the Bench'' ({{ISBN|978-1626522497}})
* ''The War on Guns,'' ] 2016 ({{ISBN|978-1-62157-580-1}}) * ''The War on Guns,'' ] 2016 ({{ISBN|978-1-62157-580-1}})
* List of DOJ Publications https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=16317


==See also== ==See also==
* ]

* ] * ]
* ] * ]
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==References== ==References==

{{Reflist}} {{Reflist}}


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* * {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121221054526/http://www.johnlott.org/ |date=December 21, 2012 }}
* *
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* National Academy of Science: * , National Academy of Science
* {{Google Scholar id | GkwOC24AAAAJ }} * {{Google Scholar id | GkwOC24AAAAJ }}
*
{{Authority control}} {{Authority control}}


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Latest revision as of 23:14, 5 December 2024

American economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate (born 1958) For other people named John Lott, see John Lott (disambiguation).

John Lott
BornJohn Richard Lott Jr.
(1958-05-08) May 8, 1958 (age 66)
Academic career
FieldEconomics
InstitutionsUniversity of Chicago
Yale University
The Wharton School
University of Maryland, College Park
American Enterprise Institute
Alma materUniversity of California, Los Angeles (BA, MA, PhD)

John Richard Lott Jr. (born May 8, 1958) is an American economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate. Lott was formerly employed at various academic institutions and at the American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank. He is the former president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, a nonprofit he founded in 2013. He worked in the Office of Justice Programs within the U.S. Department of Justice under the Donald Trump administration from October 2020 to January 2021. Lott holds a Ph.D. in economics from UCLA.

He has written for both academic and popular publications. He has authored books such as More Guns, Less Crime, The Bias Against Guns, and Freedomnomics. He is best known as a gun rights advocate and has argued against restrictions on owning and carrying guns. The New Yorker and The Trace have said "no one has had greater influence" in the scientific debate over firearms while Newsweek referred to Lott as "The Gun Crowd's Guru."

Academic career

John Lott studied economics at UCLA, receiving his B.A. in 1980, M.A. in 1982, and Ph.D. in 1984. Lott has held positions in law and economics at several institutions, including the Yale Law School, the Hoover Institution, UCLA, the Wharton Business School, Texas A&M University, and Rice University. Lott was the chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission (1988–1989). He spent five years at the University of Chicago, as a visiting professor from 1994 to 1995 and as a John M. Olin fellow from 1995 to 1999. Lott was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute from 2001 to 2006. He left AEI for SUNY Binghamton. From July 2007 to 2010, Lott was a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland Foundation at the University of Maryland, College Park and lectured on law and economics.

Lott has written op-eds for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, USA Today, and the Chicago Tribune. Since 2008, he has been a columnist for Fox News, initially weekly.

Research on guns

Concealed weapons and crime rate

In a 1997 article written with David B. Mustard and Lott's subsequent books More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns, Lott argued that allowing adults to carry concealed weapons significantly reduces crime in America. In 2004, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) National Research Council (NRC) conducted a review of current research and data on firearms and violent crime, including Lott's work, and concluded "that with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates." The NAS report wrote of Lott's work, "The initial model specification, when extended to new data, does not show evidence that passage of right-to-carry laws reduces crime. The estimated effects are highly sensitive to seemingly minor changes in the model specification and control variables." The criminologist James Q. Wilson was the only member on the 18-member NAS panel who dissented from this conclusion. For similar reasons as highlighted by the NAS, as well as "multiple serious problems with data and methodology", a 2020 comprehensive review of existing research on concealed-carry by the RAND Corporation discounted Lott's studies.

Other reviews said that there were problems with Lott's model. A replication by Dan A. Black and Daniel Nagin found that minor adjustments to Lott and Mustard's model led to the disappearance of the findings. In the New England Journal of Medicine, David Hemenway argued that Lott failed to account for several key variables, including drug consumption. Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue said that the model used by Lott contained significant coding errors and systemic bias. In the American Journal of Public Health, Daniel Webster et al. also raised concerns about flaws in the study, such as misclassification of laws and endogeneity of predictor variables, which they said rendered the study's conclusions "insupportable". Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck considered it unlikely that such a large decrease in violent crime could be explained by a relatively modest increase in concealed carry. A 1998 study by Jens Ludwig that said it "more effectively control for unobserved variables that may vary over time" than the Lott and Mustard study concluded that "shall-issue laws have resulted, if anything, in an increase in adult homicide rates." A 2001 study in the Journal of Political Economy by University of Chicago economist Mark Duggan did robustness checks of Lott and Mustard's study and found that the findings of the Lott and Mustard study were inaccurate.

Other academics praised Lott's methodology, including Florida State University economist Bruce Benson, Cardozo School of Law professor John O. McGinnis, College of William and Mary professor Carlisle Moody, University of Mississippi professor William F. Shughart, and SUNY economist Florenz Plassmann and University of Adelaide economist John Whitley.

Referring to the research done on the topic, The Chronicle of Higher Education wrote in 2003 that "Mr. Lott's research has convinced his peers of at least one point: No scholars now claim that legalizing concealed weapons causes a major increase in crime." As Lott critics Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III pointed out, "Lott and Mustard have made an important scholarly contribution in establishing that these laws have not led to the massive bloodbath of death and injury that some of their opponents feared. On the other hand, we find that the statistical evidence that these laws have reduced crime is limited, sporadic, and extraordinarily fragile." A 2008 article in Econ Journal Watch surveyed peer-reviewed empirical academic studies, and found that 10 supported the proposition that right-to-carry reduces crime, 8 supported no significant effect and none supported an increase. The article was rebutted by Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue in the same journal in 2009.

In 2013, Lott founded the nonprofit organization Crime Prevention Research Center to study the relationship between gun laws and crime. As of July 2015, he was also the organization's president. The board of directors for the organization includes guitarist Ted Nugent, conservative talkshow host Lars Larson and former sheriff David Clarke. In 2020, Lott left the organization to take a position in the Trump administration.

Defensive gun use

Main article: Defensive gun use

Lott argues in both More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns that defensive gun use (DGU) is underreported, noting that in general, only shootings ending in fatalities are discussed in news stories. In More Guns, Less Crime, Lott writes that "ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police." In May 1998, Lott wrote that "national surveys" suggested that "98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack." Lott cited similar figures in op-eds in The Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times.

In 2002, he said that brandishing a weapon was sufficient to stop an attack 95% of the time. Other researchers criticized his methodology. A study in Public Opinion Quarterly said that his sample size of 1,015 respondents was too small for the study to be accurate and that the majority of similar studies suggest a value between 70 and 80 percent. According to Lott, Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz's 1994 estimate rises to 92 percent when brandishing and warning shots are added together. Lott said that the lower rates found by others was at least in part due to the different questions that were asked.

Defamation suit

On April 10, 2006, John Lott filed suit for defamation against Steven Levitt and HarperCollins Publishers over the book Freakonomics and against Levitt over a series of emails to John McCall. In the book Freakonomics, Levitt and coauthor Stephen J. Dubner claimed that the results of Lott's research in More Guns, Less Crime had not been replicated by other academics. In the emails to economist John McCall, who had pointed to a number of papers in different academic publications that had replicated Lott's work, Levitt wrote that the work by several authors supporting Lott in a special 2001 issue of the Journal of Law and Economics had not been peer-reviewed, Lott had paid the University of Chicago Press to publish the papers, and that papers with results opposite of Lott's had been blocked from publication in that issue. A federal judge found that Levitt's replication claim in Freakonomics was not defamation but found merit in Lott's complaint over the email claims. The dismissal was affirmed by a three-judge panel of The United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit on February 11, 2009.

A settlement was reached over the claims made by Levitt in the emails to McCall whereby Levitt did not have to issue a formal apology but rather send a letter of clarification to John McCall that the issue of the Journal of Law and Economics was peer-reviewed, and that Lott had not improperly influenced the editors. The Chronicle of Higher Education characterized Levitt's letter as offering "a doozy of a concession."

Disputed survey

In the course of a dispute with Otis Dudley Duncan in 1999–2000, Lott claimed to have undertaken a national survey of 2,424 respondents in 1997, the results of which were the source for claims he had made beginning in 1997. However, in 2000 Lott was unable to produce the data or any records showing that the survey had been undertaken. He said the 1997 hard drive crash that had affected several projects with co-authors had destroyed his survey data set, the original tally sheets had been abandoned with other personal property in his move from Chicago to Yale, and he could not recall the names of any of the students who he said had worked on it. Critics questioned whether the survey had ever taken place, but Lott defends the survey's existence and accuracy.

Mary Rosh persona

In response to the dispute surrounding the missing survey, Lott used a sock puppet by the name of "Mary Rosh" to defend his own works on Usenet and elsewhere. After investigative work by libertarian blogger Julian Sanchez, Lott admitted to using the Mary Rosh persona.

Further accusations claimed that Lott praised himself while posing as one of his former students and that "Rosh" was used to post a favorable review of More Guns, Less Crime on Amazon.com. Lott has claimed that the review was written by his son and wife. "I probably shouldn't have done it—I know I shouldn't have done it—but it's hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously," Lott told The Washington Post in 2003.

Safe storage gun laws

In a 2001 study, Lott and John E. Whitley reported that safe-storage gun laws not only did not reduce juvenile suicides or accidental gun deaths, but that they also increased rates of violent and property crime. The study was criticized by Webster et al. in the Journal of the American Medical Association for using Tobit regression despite the fact that the data used in the study on youth suicides was "highly skewed and heteroskedastic", and because the vast majority of crimes that Lott and Whitley claimed increased due to safe-storage laws occurred outside the home. Webster and Carroll also wrote in Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia of History, Politics, Culture, and the Law that the Lott and Whitley study's findings with respect to crime were inconsistent with prior research.

Other research and events

In a study published in 2000, Lott concluded that most of the large recent increases in campaign spending for state and federal offices can be explained by higher government spending. Lott also supports the conclusion that higher quality judges, measured by their output once they are on the court (e.g., number of citations to their opinions or number of published opinions), take longer to get confirmed.

Lost Bush votes in the 2000 presidential election

In 2000, Lott argued, using a regression analysis, that George W. Bush lost at least 10,000 votes in Florida after the media incorrectly called the state for Al Gore while voting was still ongoing in the more conservative parts of the state. Lott's argument is used in the influential social science methodology textbook Rethinking Social Inquiry (edited by Henry Brady and David Collier) as an example of poor methodology. Contrary to Lott's study, they show that the number of lost Bush votes ranged from 28 to 56.

Abortion and crime

With John Whitley at the University of Adelaide, Lott published a study that argued that liberalization of abortion laws led to higher murder rates. In a review of the literature on the relationship between abortion and crime, Theodore Joyce, an economist at Baruch College and the National Bureau of Economic Research, praised Lott and Whitley for gathering additional data on abortion but criticized the methodology that they used.

Illegal immigration and crime

Lott has non-peer-reviewed research that purports to show that undocumented immigrants are more crime-prone than U.S. citizens. In doing so, Lott lumped together both legal and illegal immigrants in prison into a category for illegal immigrants, leading to an elevated crime rate for illegal immigrants. The Washington Post fact-checker wrote that this was a "significant flaw in Lott's study that undercuts his conclusion. Lott says the overall thrust of his study still holds, but the issue muddles his research and invites guesswork as to the actual crime rate for the undocumented immigrant population in Arizona."

Lott's claims were heavily promoted by the Trump administration to justify its anti-immigration policies, in particular their attempts to end DACA.

Women's suffrage and government growth

According to a study by Lott and Larry Kenny, "women's suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives, and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise."

Affirmative action in police departments

Lott published a study arguing that affirmative action in the hiring of police reduced the overall quality of all officers and increased crime. The most adverse effects of these hiring policies have occurred in the most heavily black-populated cities. There is no consistent evidence that crime rates rise when standards for hiring women are changed.

Environmental regulations

Together with John Karpoff and Eric Wehrly at the University of Washington, Lott has worked to show the importance of government regulations through both legal and regulatory penalties and the weaknesses of reputational penalties in reducing pollution. Firms violating environmental laws suffer statistically significant losses in the market value of firm equity. The losses are of similar magnitudes to the legal penalties imposed; and in the cross section, the market value loss is related to the size of the legal penalty.

Voter fraud claims

Further information: Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election

In October 2020, Lott was appointed as a senior adviser for research and statistics at the Office of Justice Programs within the U.S. Department of Justice in the Donald Trump administration. Lott resigned from the DoJ on January 16, 2021. Lott has claimed there was voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election. He argued there was "irregularities" in the absentee ballots in Missoula County, and later wrote a paper claiming there was evidence of fraud in the absentee ballots in Georgia and Pennsylvania. A 2021 PNAS study by political scientists at Stanford University and the University of Chicago rebutted Lott's paper as being not even remotely convincing, writing that his analysis was "entirely dependent on the completely arbitrary order in which pairs of precincts in other counties are entered in the dataset" and that his conclusions about voter fraud were "utterly baseless."

2021 "graduation address" event

On June 4, 2021, two parents of a child killed in the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School invited Lott and David Keene to deliver what they falsely said was a dress rehearsal for a 2021 graduation address for a fictitious school called "the James Madison Academy". The space for the audience contained 3,044 empty folding chairs. Lott first realized that the event was a staged attempt to call attention to school shootings, and not a genuine commencement address dress rehearsal, when news media asked him to comment on segments of video of the "dress rehearsal" that the organizers posted on the internet. They said that the empty chairs were intended to represent the victims of school shootings who would never graduate from high school. In a local Las Vegas news interview, Lott said that he is not opposed to all forms of background checks but simply believes that background checks broadly discriminate against persons of color, primarily black and Hispanic, among potential gun buyers.

Bibliography

See also

References

  1. Frum, David (January 14, 2014). "With Guns, the Threatened Can Quickly Become the Threat". Daily Beast. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  2. Blake, Meredith (December 16, 2012). "Piers Morgan on gun control: 'How many kids have to die?'". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  3. Bovard, James. "Review quotes". press.uchicago.edu. University of Chicago Press. Archived from the original on September 19, 2018. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  4. Spies, Mike (November 3, 2022). "The Right's Favorite Gun Researcher". The Trace. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
  5. Bai, Matt (March 12, 2001). "The Gun Crowd's Guru: John Lott has a high profile—and a target on his back". Newsweek. Archived from the original on May 2, 2015.
  6. ^ "Dr. John R. Lott Jr". Fox News. July 27, 2016. Retrieved July 27, 2016.
  7. Curriculum Vitae of John R. Lott Jr., dated March 17, 2008.
  8. Social Science Research Network
  9. Blogspot.com
  10. Fox News
  11. John R. Lott Jr. and David B. Mustard, "Crime, Deterrence and Right-To-Carry Concealed Handguns", 26 Journal of Legal Studies 1 (1997) working paper PDF Archived 2010-06-16 at the Wayback Machine; journal article PDF (subscription required).
  12. NAS, Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review (2004) Executive Summary, Major Conclusions, p. 2. Ch. 6 Right-to-Carry Laws, pp. 120–151, reviews research by Lott and others on this issue.
  13. ^ Farley, Robert; Robertson, Lori; Kiely, Eugene (December 20, 2012). "Gun Rhetoric vs. Gun Facts". FactCheck.org. Retrieved January 2, 2021.
  14. Wilson, James Q. (2004). "Appendix A Dissent". Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review. pp. 269–270. ISBN 0-309-09124-1. Archived from the original on October 16, 2012.
  15. "Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime". rand.org. Retrieved January 2, 2021.
  16. Black, Dan A.; Daniel S. Nagin (January 1998). "Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?". Journal of Legal Studies. 27 (1): 214. doi:10.1086/468019. S2CID 154626760.
  17. Ted Goertzel, "Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression", The Skeptical Inquirer, Volume 26, No 1, January/February 2002, pp. 19–23. Expanded as: Ted Goertzel, "Econometric Modeling as Junk Science"
  18. Hemenway, David (December 31, 1998). "More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding crime and gun-control laws / Making A Killing: The business of guns in America". The New England Journal of Medicine. 339 (27): 2029–2030. doi:10.1056/NEJM199812313392719.
  19. ^ Ayres, Ian; John J. Donohue III (April 2003). "Shooting Down the 'More Guns, Less Crime' Hypothesis". Stanford Law Review. 55 (4): 1193. doi:10.2139/ssrn.343781. S2CID 55757925.
  20. Webster, D W; Vernick, J S; Ludwig, J; Lester, K J (June 1997). "Flawed gun policy research could endanger public safety". American Journal of Public Health. 87 (6): 918–921. doi:10.2105/AJPH.87.6.918. PMC 1380922. PMID 9224169.
  21. Kleck, Gary (1997). Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.
  22. Ludwig, Jens (September 1998). "Concealed-gun-carrying laws and violent crime: evidence from state panel data" (PDF). International Review of Law and Economics. 18 (3): 239–254. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.487.5452. doi:10.1016/S0144-8188(98)00012-X. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2022.
  23. Duggan, Mark (October 1, 2001). "More Guns, More Crime". Journal of Political Economy. 109 (5): 1086–1114. doi:10.1086/322833. ISSN 0022-3808. S2CID 33899679.
  24. Benson, Bruce L. (September 1999). "Review of More Guns, Less Crime". Public Choice. 100 (3–4): 309–313. doi:10.1023/A:1018689310638. S2CID 150500420.
  25. McGinnis, John O. (July 20, 1998). "Trigger Happiness". National Review. 50 (13): 49.
  26. Moody, Carlisle E. (October 2001). "Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness". The Journal of Law and Economics. 44 (s2): 799–813. doi:10.1086/323313. S2CID 154918586.
  27. Shughart, William F.; Lott, John R. (April 1, 1999). "More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review". Southern Economic Journal. 65 (4): 978–981. doi:10.2307/1061296. JSTOR 1061296.
  28. "Plassmann and Whitley Stanford Law Review (2003)" Confirming More Guns, Less Crime, by Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley, 2003, p. 1361
  29. Glenn, David (May 9, 2003). "'More Guns, Less Crime' Thesis Rests on a Flawed Statistical Design, Scholars Argue". The Chronicle of Higher Education. 49 (35): A18. Retrieved May 27, 2007.
  30. Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, "The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws", Econ Journal Watch Vol. 5, Iss. 3 (2008).
  31. "Yet Another Refutation of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis—With Some Help From Moody and Marvell · Econ Journal Watch: Law and economics, criminal justice policy, guns and crime". econjwatch.org. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  32. Lurie, Julia (July 28, 2015). "When the Gun Lobby Tries to Justify Firearms Everywhere, It Turns to This Guy". Mother Jones. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  33. ^ Gerstein, Josh (November 24, 2020). "Controversial gun advocate hired by Justice Department last month". Politico. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  34. Lott Jr., John R. (June 23, 1998). "Keep Guns out of Lawyers' Hands". Wall Street Journal. p. 1.
  35. Lott Jr., John R. (December 1, 1998). "Cities Target Gun Makers in Bogus Lawsuits". Los Angeles Times. p. 7.
  36. McDowall, David (Summer 2005). "John R. Lott Jr.'s Defensive Gun Brandishing Estimates". Public Opinion Quarterly. 69 (2): 246–263. doi:10.1093/poq/nfi015.
  37. Lott, John. "What Surveys Can Help Us Understand About Guns?" (PDF). p. 8. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2022. Retrieved June 22, 2016.
  38. Discussion of different surveys on defensive gun use Johnlott.org
  39. "PDF of Lott's complaint v. Levitt" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 27, 2007. Retrieved August 27, 2007.
  40. Higgins, Michael (April 11, 2006). "Best-seller leads scholar to file lawsuit; Defamation allegation targets U. of C. author". Chicago Tribune. p. 3.
  41. "Judge Castillo issues decision on Lott v. Levitt" on John Lott's website
  42. "7th Circuit Affirmation of District Court Dismissal of Defamation Lawsuit Archived 2009-02-16 at the Wayback Machine"
  43. Staff, Courthouse News (February 13, 2009). "Professor Wasn't Defamed by 'Freakonomics' Author". Retrieved January 2, 2021.
  44. Gajda, Amy (2010). The Trials of Academe. Harvard University Press: Harvard University Press. pp. 166–170. doi:10.2307/j.ctvjghvr3. ISBN 978-0-674-05386-1. S2CID 198001655.
  45. Glenn, David (August 10, 2007). "Dueling Economists Reach Settlement in Defamation Lawsuit". Chronicle of Higher Education. 53 (49): 10.
  46. "Unusual Agreement Means Settlement May Be Near in 'Lott v. Levitt,' July 27, 2007"
  47. "Unusual Agreement Means Settlement May Be Near in 'Lott v. Levitt'," Chronicle of Higher Education, July 27, 2007
  48. Otis Dudley Duncan, "Gun Use Surveys: In Numbers We Trust?" Archived 2012-05-25 at the Wayback Machine, The Criminologist, Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan/Feb 2000, pp. 1, 3–7.
  49. ^ "John R. Lott Jr.'s Reply to Otis Dudley Duncan's Recent Article in The Criminologist" Archived May 25, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, The Criminologist, Vol. 25, No. 5, Sep/Oct 2000, pp. 1, 6.
  50. Sanchez, Julian (February 13, 2003). "Red Herrings". Julian Sanchez – blog. Retrieved July 28, 2016. (Julian Sanchez noted that the 1997 hard drive crash is widely accepted as a fact; the dispute is over the lack of solid evidence that Lott lost a survey data set in that crash)
  51. ^ Sanchez, Julian (May 2003). "The Mystery of Mary Rosh". Reason. Retrieved June 15, 2007.
  52. "Evidence of Survey"., "2002 Survey".
  53. Chris Mooney in Mother Jones: Double Barreled Double Standards. October 13, 2003
  54. ^ Morin, Richard (February 1, 2003). "Scholar Invents Fan to Answer His Critics". The Washington Post. p. C01.
  55. Lott Jr., John R.; Whitley, John E. (October 2001). "Safe-Storage Gun Laws: Accidental Deaths, Suicides, and Crime" (PDF). The Journal of Law and Economics. 44 (S2): 659–689. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.180.3066. doi:10.1086/338346. S2CID 154446568. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2022.
  56. Webster, Daniel W. (August 4, 2004). "Association Between Youth-Focused Firearm Laws and Youth Suicides". JAMA. 292 (5): 594–601. doi:10.1001/jama.292.5.594. PMID 15292085.
  57. Carter, Gregg Lee (2002). Guns in American Society. ABC-CLIO. p. 151. ISBN 978-0-313-38670-1.
  58. Lott, John R. Jr. (October 2000). "A Simple Explanation for Why Campaign Expenditures are Increasing: The Government is Getting Bigger". Journal of Law and Economics. doi:10.2139/ssrn.245336. S2CID 153298336.
  59. Lott, John R. (2005). "The Judicial Confirmation Process: The Difficulty with Being Smart". Journal of Empirical Legal Studies. 2 (3): 407–447. doi:10.1111/j.1740-1461.2005.00056.x.
  60. ^ Brady, Henry E.; Collier, David (2004). Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN 978-0-7425-1125-5.
  61. John R. Lott Jr. and John E. Whitley, "Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births", (2001) SSRN Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 254 working paper and Economic Inquiry, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 304–324, April 2007 published article.
  62. Joyce, Theodore J. (June 2009). "Abortion and Crime: A Review". National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper Series. doi:10.3386/w15098. S2CID 74738947.
  63. ^ Lind, Dara (March 1, 2018). "The right-wing effort to paint DREAMers as a nightmare". Vox. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  64. "The Fatal Flaw in John R. Lott Jr.'s Study on Illegal Immigrant Crime in Arizona". Cato Institute. February 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  65. "Questions raised about study that links undocumented immigrants to higher crime". The Washington Post. 2018.
  66. Exstrum, Olivia. "The guy behind the bogus immigration report has a long history of terrible and misleading research". Mother Jones. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  67. Lott, John R. Jr.; Kenny, Larry (1999). "How Dramatically Did Women's Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of Government?". Journal of Political Economy. doi:10.2139/ssrn.160530.
  68. Lott, John R. Jr. (April 2000). "Does a Helping Hand Put Others At Risk?: Affirmative Action, Police Departments, and Crime". Economic Inquiry. 38 (2): 239–277. doi:10.1093/ei/38.2.239.
  69. Karpoff, Jonathan M.; Lott, John R. Jr.; Wehrly, Eric (August 16, 2005). "The Reputational Penalties for Environmental Violations: Empirical Evidence". Journal of Law and Economics. 48 (2): 653–675. doi:10.1086/430806. S2CID 154290101.
  70. "John Lott, Discredited Gun Researcher, Leaves DOJ". The Trace. January 21, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
  71. Gerstein, Josh (November 24, 2020). "Controversial gun advocate hired by Justice Department last month". Politico. Retrieved January 2, 2021.
  72. ^ Hansen, Jordan (March 30, 2021). "GOP-backed group claims 'irregularities' on Missoula County 2020 ballots". missoulian.com. Retrieved September 14, 2021.
  73. Eggers, Andrew C.; Garro, Haritz; Grimmer, Justin (November 9, 2021). "No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 118 (45). Bibcode:2021PNAS..11803619E. doi:10.1073/pnas.2103619118. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 8609310. PMID 34728563.
  74. Grimmer, Justin (January 5, 2021). "Comment On 'A Simple Test For The Extent Of Voter Fraud With Absentee Ballots In The 2020 Presidential Election'". Hoover Institution. Retrieved September 14, 2021.
  75. Clark, Lauren (June 23, 2021). "Gun activists tricked into speaking at fake Las Vegas high school graduation". 3LV News. Retrieved September 8, 2021.
  76. "A Parkland Victim's Dad Tricked a Former NRA President into Speaking at a Fake Graduation". BuzzFeed News. June 23, 2021.

External links

Lott's websites

Lott's research

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