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Revision as of 18:54, 8 July 2007

Template:Future election in the United States

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Presidential electoral votes by state

The United States presidential election of 2008 will be the 55th consecutive quadrennial election for President and Vice President of the United States, and is scheduled to be held on November 4 2008. Elections for all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 members of the United States Senate will also occur on November 4.

Whoever receives a majority of votes in the Electoral College in the U.S. presidential election (270 votes are needed for a majority) will be the 44th President of the United States, and whichever vice presidential candidate receives a majority of votes will be the 47th Vice President of the United States. If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College at that time, then the president-elect will be selected by a vote of the House of Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the vice president-elect will be selected by a vote of the Senate. (Note that these have not happened since 1825 and 1837, respectively.)

As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

2008 presidential election characteristics

First election without incumbents since 1928

When a United States President leaves office, his Vice President is more often than not considered a leading candidate and likely nominee to succeed him. 2008 will mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice-president running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the presidential election.

In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing, two-term president (those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton), the incumbent Vice President has immediately thereafter run for President. (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.)

In the Presidential contest in 1952, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson; earlier that year, incumbent President Harry S. Truman allowed his name to stand in the New Hampshire primary (but did not campaign). He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and formally withdrew his name from consideration. Also in 1952, Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.

In the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson, at first, decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results against his favor. Therefore, in a nationally televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey then chose to run and was the eventual Democratic nominee.

The other recent Vice Presidents, such as Dan Quayle and Walter Mondale, have also sought the office of president at various times. Mondale succeeded his President, the one-term Jimmy Carter, as his party's candidate, and Quayle was unsuccessful in winning the nomination for the country's highest office.

Current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve." The 2008 race, therefore, will apparently be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President will be a candidate, the first time since 1952.

Campaign costs

Main article: Fundraising for the 2008 presidential election

The reported cost of campaigning for President has risen significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004). In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

Although he has said that he will not be running for president, published reports indicate that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg would have been considering a presidential bid of $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.

Effect of the Internet

In late April, Huffington Post, Yahoo!, and Slate magazine announced that they would be hosting one Democratic and one Republican debate for Presidential hopefuls. The debates are proposed to be held after Labor Day and hosted by Charlie Rose. Of the debates, Arianna Huffington remarked "It was clear to me, the 2008 campaign was going to be dominated by what's happening on line — new technologies, new media like never before."

Many of the presidential candidates have been trying to connect with younger voters, through YouTube, Veoh, Flickr, Eventful.com, Meetup.com, MySpace, and Facebook.

Timeline

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008 timeline

Early stages

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Candidates began to emerge during 2006, when the first cattle calls were held and at least two straw polls were taken. In 2007, because of the long lead time for fund-raising and because Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, fund-raising began in earnest.

The pre-primary season began even before the 2006 Congressional elections, with most of the potential candidates forming exploratory committees or announcing their candidacies outright. The main focus of these committees was to gain media attention and fund-raising. This was done primarily through broadcast media discussions by various pundits and a series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events designed to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, hosted a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, which began on February 21, as well as a debate in South Carolina on April 26.

The Republican Party also planned events for the candidates, such as a televised debate at the Ronald Reagan Library that took place in California on May 3, as well as the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11. In 1999, two of the nine candidates that participated in the straw poll dropped out of the race for the 2000 nomination after faring poorly there.

"Front runner" status is somewhat dependent on the news agency reporting, but the current consensus lists about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, Ted Rall lists Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani, McCain, Obama, and Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post lists Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates." MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.

Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, with the next closest candidate being Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.

According to a poll featured on ABC News and released February 2007, 65% of respondents stated that they are following the 2008 election closely.

Official primary/caucus dates

Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 and Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

February 5, 2008, looks set to be a decisive date, one month before the traditional Super Tuesday, as up to twenty states with half of the United States' population are moving to hold their primaries on what is being called Tsunami Tuesday, National Presidential Primary Day, Giga Tuesday or Super Duper Tuesday.

Later events

Candidates and potential candidates

Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire for the presidency in the form of "exploratory committees," which allow the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums, beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some publicity but little public support.

Democratic Party

Main article: 2008 Democratic presidential candidates

Candidates for the Democratic Party:

Potential candidates:

Republican Party

Main article: 2008 Republican presidential candidates

Candidates for the Republican Party:

Potential candidates:

Third parties

Main article: 2008 United States third party presidential candidates

Constitution Party

Candidates for the Constitution Party:

Green Party

Candidates for the Green Party (Official Press Release):


Potential candidates:

Libertarian Party

Candidates for the Libertarian Party:

Potential candidates:

Independents

Candidates running as Independents:

(Campaign site)

Potential candidates

Rumored candidates

Withdrawn candidates

Opinion polling

Chart summarizing Opinion Polling for the United States Presidential Election, 2008 - General Election - Two-Way Contest - Results of All Democratic and Republican Candidates (click to enlarge)
Main article: Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008 See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Possible electoral college changes

In 2007, Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the "DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007" in the U.S. House. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote award to Utah in order to balance the addition. The Congressional Research Service has determined that if passed, the bill would likely be found unconstitutional, on the suggested basis that Congress does not have the authority to grant an electoral college vote to the District.

The bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, which very narrowly missed gaining another seat in the 2000 census, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Potential battleground states

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Pundits and political experts have generated the usual "battleground state" list, where certain states are determined with respect to their viability of being the "decider" with respect to the winner. The states garnering that special status are as following, followed by a brief explanation:

  • Arkansas: Like West Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio, Arkansas gave its electoral votes to favorite son Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but swung to Bush in 2000 and 2004. Democrats have both senate seats, three of the four house seats, a governorship they won in 2006 picked up by a healthy margin, and a large legislature majority. Although it went for Bush handily in '04, it only went for him narrowly in 2000 so there is a good chance this state will be competitive in 2008. An Opinion Research Associates poll in August 2006 had Hillary Clinton leading former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee by 49-36.
  • Colorado: The "Centennial State" is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2006, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention. Strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention of issues such as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a Democratic leaning state. However, Republicans still claim their title on this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues; but pundits have put Colorado as the initial favorite for the Democrats.
  • Florida: The key player in 2000, which handed its votes to George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Florida is situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security, two key components of winning the elderly vote, in addition to tax cuts and values issues. As for Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also, Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP ticket. Current polling by Quinnipiac University in Florida shows Giuliani beating Clinton 48-42.
  • Iowa: The first in the nation caucus is also first in the list for those who want to ensure their victory in the "Hawkeye State". Iowa has been a true battleground state, in the sense that it went for Al Gore in 2000 and George W. Bush in 2004; but, both times, the margin of victory was small, making it a pivotal destination. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the election of Chet Culver and the addition of 2 U.S. House seats. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans. Clinton currently leads Giuliani 47-41 in a poll by SurveyUSA.
  • Kentucky: The "Bluegrass State" has been a perennial, but generally conservative swing state. Many voters have been displeased with the state Republican party, with numerous corruption scandals surrounding Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher, who has a 70% disapproval rate, and President George W. Bush had a 60% disapproval rating in the state he won in the 2004 election. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996, and Democrats are hoping that voters' dissatisfaction with the Republicans will lead to Kentucky's electoral votes being in play in 2008, as well as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat, citing his closeness to the Bush administration. A June 2007 poll shows Giuliani beating Clinton 47-44 in a two-way matchup amongst Kentucky voters.
  • Michigan: The "Great Lakes State" has been a safe bet for the Democrats for a long time, giving its 17 electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has diluted, shifting it from the "safe" category to the "leaning" category for the Democrats, opening a window for the Republicans. Populist issues have dominated the state and made it a natural attraction for the Democrats, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues, following the "Reagan Democrat" movement. One point of contention was that even though the economy is terrible, it re-elected Gov. Jennifer Granholm by a landslide. But still, pundits agree that even though the Democratic proclivity is high, there remains a significant vacuum that could be filled by the Republicans. A Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll in Febraury 2007 showed Clinton leading Giuliani 46-42.
  • Minnesota: Minnesota has been a traditional Democratic state, but in the past 4-6 years, things have tightened up between the GOP and the Democrats. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to be competitive, with Republican Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans are holding their National Convention in Saint Paul in hopes that things will change around this time. The last Republican to win "North Star State" was President Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has been a formidable ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of victory was small and therefore, made it an important stop for both parties. A Minnesota poll by SurveyUSA (June 2007) shows Clinton leading Giuliani 50-41.
  • Missouri: The "Show Me State" has been dubbed as the bellwether for the nation, determining the mood of the nation for a long time. It is the state who has determined the most winners for the Presidency. The home of President Harry Truman is a traditional Republican state, granting its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes, such as stem cell research and universal health coverage. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Claire McCaskill. Continuing on that trend, the national mood souring over the War in Iraq makes this a strong contender for the Democrats. Giuliani currently beats Clinton by 1% (47-46) according to a June 2007 SurveyUSA poll.
  • Nevada: The Democrats, on the lobbying of Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid and DNC Chairman Howard Dean changed the primary date to make it compatible with New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. Even though Nevada has tended to vote for the Republicans, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. The 2006 Gubernatorial election was a competitive one, where Republican Jim Gibbons won by a slim margin; when the state has tended to support them. For Democrats, the Las Vegas metropolitan area and its exponential population increase are making it a Democratic attraction, and they are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Governor Gibbons (29% approval rating) and President Bush (34% approval rating). In the latest Nevada poll by Research 2000, Giuliani defeats Clinton 46-38. In that same poll, Giuliani defeats Obama 44-42. In addition, Nevada has been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, with the single exception of 1976.
  • New Mexico: New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, in that its status is insignificant and there is no benefit in visiting this low populated state; but that thinking has changed and changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Al Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, George W. Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could make significant splashing and benefit the challenger who might lag behind in big states such as Ohio and Florida. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with Gov. Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination, based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western states to advance their path towards succeeding George W. Bush. As for Republicans, such victories are essential, which can off balance the threat of another election disaster, such as Florida. The calculation is that had Bush won here in 2000, it would have made him the de facto winner, despite Florida. A recent poll by SurveyUSA shows Clinton leading Giuliani 50-44.
  • Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004). President George W. Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign. According to a June 2007 poll by Quinnipiac University Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani would get 45% each.
  • Virginia: Virginia has been a traditionally Republican state, with the majority of statewide positions being controlled by the Republicans. Historically, this state has been a safe bet for the GOP, but things have started to change since the election of Mark Warner to the Governorship in 2001. In the wake of his election, moderate to conservative Democrats have won statewide elections; primary examples are with the victories of Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005 to the Governorship and Jim Webb to the U.S. Senate, albeit by a small margin. Furthermore, the Democrats have gained seats in the state House of Delegates in each election since 2001. Such successes, along with deep dissatisfaction with the War in Iraq, has made Virginians re-think their priorities. As Chris Matthews noted on MSNBC on the day of election in 2006, that "Webb's victory has made Virginia secede from the Confederacy ." Although no Democratic nominee for President has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Bill Clinton only narrowly lost in 1996 and Democratic momentum has been building since. Additionally, if former Governor Mark Warner decides to run for the US Senate in 2008, or is chosen as the vice presidential nominee, it would likely improve the chances of any Democratic presidential candidate. A June 2007 poll by SurveyUSA shows Giuliani leading Clinton 48-44.
  • West Virginia: West Virginia gave its electoral votes to Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but swung to Bush in 2000 and 2004. Democrats own a major edge in party registration in the state. In addition, West Virginia has two democratic senators and a democratic governor. This state has a high potential of being in play.
  • Wisconsin: Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections. According to a June 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Hillary Clinton is leading Rudy Giuliani 47-46.

See also

References

  1. United States presidential election, 1960
  2. United States presidential election, 1988
  3. United States presidential election, 2000
  4. Alben Barkley#1952 Presidential Campaign
  5. United States presidential election, 1968
  6. United States presidential election, 2000
  7. "Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'" (Reprint). FOX News Sunday. FOXNews.com. 2005-02-07. Retrieved 2006-11-14.
  8. United States presidential election, 1952
  9. Kennedy, Helen (2007-01-14). "Wanna be Prez? First get $100M". New York Daily News. Retrieved 2007-02-01.
  10. Hallow, Ralph Z. (2007-05-15). "http://washingtontimes.com/national/20070515-123142-3314r.htm". The Washington Times. Retrieved 2007-05-30. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help); External link in |title= (help)
  11. Presidential debates set for cyberspace
  12. Rall, Ted (2007-05-17). "Frontrunners by default". Columbia City Paper. Retrieved 2007-05-30. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  13. Balz, Dan (2007-04-27). "Candidates Unite in Criticizing Bush". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2007-05-30. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  14. Chuck Todd (2007-05-10). "Will Tsunami Tuesday be an Afterthought?". Retrieved 2007-05-31.
  15. Dick Morris (2007-03-02). "Only Strong Will Survive This Big Bang". Retrieved 2007-03-05.
  16. Cameron, Carl (2007-02-26). "Feb. 5: National Presidential Primary Day?". Fox News. Retrieved 2007-03-06.
  17. Ball, Molly (2007-03-01). "2008 Nomination: GOP feeling need to compete". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved 2007-03-06.
  18. Corsi, Jerome R. (2006-04-30). "Founder of Minutemen targets run for president". World Net Daily. Retrieved 2006-11-14. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  19. Party, Green (2007-02). "Elaine Brown to Seek Green Party Presidential Ticket". Green Line. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  20. Moulton, Chuck (2007-02-19). "barry hess". lpradicals. Yahoo! Groups. Retrieved 2007-02-21.
  21. Howard, Ed. "Hagel In 2008 Doesn't Do Much For Nebraska Voters In 2006". Nebraska State Paper. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  22. "Statement by U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel on His Political Future". The Washington Post.
  23. Beaumont, Thomas (2007-02-23). "Vilsack drops out of prez race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2007-02-26.
  24. Sheridan, Mary Beth (2007-02-13). "Report Questions Constitutionality of Giving D.C. a Vote". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2007-03-01.
  25. Intense 2008 election forecast for Ohio
  26. Rendell Administration Supports Giving Pennsylvanians a Voice in Presidential Primary
  27. Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win, Washington Post, 10/30/2004.

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