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A glaring omission

With it's broad scope and it's goal of being a good 'primer' article to the topic, why doesn't this article mention peak oil? Isn't the fact that the earth will immediately begin running out of its most important fossil fuel relevent to the discussion about mitigation and adaptation? 24.32.208.58 (talk) 07:11, 1 January 2008 (UTC)

It might belong in the article on adaptation but I doubt it should be included here. Brusegadi (talk) 08:29, 1 January 2008 (UTC)

If peak oil was mentioned in the 'adapation' sub-article, why wouldn't a short sentence or phrase about it be appropriate for this main article? 24.32.208.58 (talk) 19:56, 1 January 2008 (UTC)

Peak Oil would be an unintended mitigation. --Skyemoor (talk) 00:36, 4 January 2008 (UTC)

Not only is the topic avoided on this article- it's not mentioned in the 'mitigation' sub-article either. Why? President Bill Clinton has talked about the relationship of peak oil and global warming. So have several environmental activists. So have University professors. So has reliable media sources. Books have been written about it. 24.32.208.58 (talk) 02:00, 6 January 2008 (UTC)

If you want to know why peak oil is not linked as it clearly ought to be look no further than the people who even removed my comments on the subject. 212.139.94.152 (talk) 23:27, 18 January 2008 (UTC)

The problem is that if the effects of peak oil do indeed occur, they will not necessarily mitigate the effects of global warming, especially if oil is simply replaced by another hydrocarbon, for instance coal. Nor is there any guarantee that the effects of peak oil will be felt in time to mitigate the effects of global warming. To try and tie the two together seems to me to be crystal ball gazing. --Michael Johnson (talk) 23:51, 18 January 2008 (UTC)

How is it crystal gazing to say when oil, coal or gas will run out. We have estimates of utilisable reserves, we have estimates of consumption, the result is an estimate as to when the fossil fuel that some claim drives global warming will cease. The only reason there is not a link to peak oil, is that anyone with a calculator and a fag packet can work out that the claims of never ending global warming are simply rediculous. 212.139.94.152 (talk) 21:47, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

For me the main problem is the Misplaced Pages article on peak oil is too weak at present. If it was written well we could link to it. Peak Oil as a curve was single technology single geography and the article is US-centric not considering other technologies and geographies than the US adequately. And on the back of your fag packet you will have found that there is loads of hydrocarbon to burn through 2100 so not never ending but for as long as we both shall live. --BozMo talk 21:53, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

The argument used for around a month by the global warming censors on this page was that it was "wrong" to link. Not once did anyone say that the article was too weak. I wasted a hell of a lot of time just trying to get a link, I'm not falling for your tricks and spending another month or so fighting to bring peak oil up to a standard you would accept - because there is no standard you would accept for a link! And it is best the original poster knows this before wasting their time!212.139.94.152 (talk) 09:38, 23 January 2008 (UTC)

I am sorry that you think that improving an article on Misplaced Pages amounts to "wasting your time". Do this, and the comments about "censors" give some significant clues as to what your motivation in wanting to edit this article are? --BozMo talk 10:03, 23 January 2008 (UTC)

Don't talk nonsense Bozmo, it is obvious to anyone with a neutral point of view that peak oil and global warming are complimentary articles and one reading one would expect a link to the other. That is what I tried for weeks to get into this article, and the fact this simple link was blocked at every possible turn in every possible conceivable way proves that this article is censored. I won't write more, because even comments get censored in this POV article. 212.139.94.152 (talk) 13:13, 23 January 2008 (UTC)

Peak oil is a very important topic and has many implications regarding means of energy, economics, security, etc. In way of global warming, I do not necessarily see it as intrinsic. It may have implications, but those are unclear. I think this is a good paper to start with. I think what we can be certain of is that there are going to be replacements, and the real implications are whether those replacements are cleaner or dirtier. I disagree that this has anything whatever to do with the Misplaced Pages's article on peak oil. I do not know exactly what kind of information you're suggesting to add to the article, so I'd be glad to hear what you specifically think should be changed or added. ~ UBeR (talk) 00:39, 24 January 2008 (UTC)

BOINC and Gulf Stream Slow-down

It should be noted that BOINC is conducting increased research to come up with a more accurate model than the 1,5-6 degrees temperature variation now recorded by most models. It should be noted that private people can cooperate in this by Grid computing trough BOINC.

In addition, please include information about the gulf-stream collapse theory (caused by global warming). A documentary ("Gulf Stream and the Next Ice Age") and more info is available at following link: Gulf Stream and the Next Ice Age Documentary

Cheers.

KVDP (talk) 15:17, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

You don't mean gulf stream; see Shutdown of thermohaline circulation. BOINC... I'm sure their PR is saying such things, but which science do you mean? Is this cp.net stuff? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:46, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

Is BOINC studying only surface-temperature, or a fully-3D model of the Gulf Stream? Which information did you want included? --Diego Bank (talk) 20:00, 6 January 2008 (UTC)

As William implies, this is really the climateprediction.net work. BOINC itself doesn't "conduct research" as such; it merely helps with the distributed computing aspects. Raymond Arritt (talk) 20:10, 6 January 2008 (UTC)

RA is dead-on. BOINC is a distributed computing framework. Its results are only as useful as the actual program (and input data) it is being used to run. Raul654 (talk) 20:12, 6 January 2008 (UTC)

Before anyone mentions the Gulf stream can I remind you that the Gulf stream is the current exiting the Gulf of Mexico (hence its name) and is the result of equatorial winds which if my geography serves me right are caused by the rotation of the earth. 88.111.89.46 (talk) 23:45, 17 January 2008 (UTC)

2007 Global figures

I read that 2007 was the coldest year since 2001, but strangely it doesn't seem to mention anywhere on the article. Could it be that the article I was reading was wrong?

Bugsy (talk) 22:36, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

Maybe, maybe not -- I haven't checked. The temperature flops up and down from year to year; a strong La Nina developed in mid-late 2007 that might have pulled the year's temperature below the general upward trend. Raymond Arritt (talk) 22:49, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

Even if so, 2007 being the coldest year in the last 6 doesn't really seem all that noteworthy. Climate data is noisy; you see small peaks and troughs often. Raul654 (talk) 22:56, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

True, a single year doesn't say much. But where did you read that 2007 was the coldest year? BBC and National Geographic suggest otherwise. --Splette :) 23:01, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

I think it was on the UK met office site! Just for information I've discovered that the Met office forecast for 2007 from last January predicted that 2007 would be the warmest year on record. It was not. | Here is the link to their forecast for 2007. Bugsy (talk) 23:04, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

I suspect that the article you read about 2007 being the coldest year was not about the global temperature average but maybe for a certain country or region?! --Splette :) 23:11, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

The UK Met office now predicts 2008 to be relatively cool, and acknowledge that 2007 was not warmer than 1998. Both are due to the strong La-Nina, and do not conflict with the long term trend. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:15, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

2007 certainly is cooler than 2002-2005, the question is whether it is also cooler than 2006 making it the coolest year since 2001 (as I said). Unfortunately, the difference seems to to around the 0.01C mark which makes it difficult to compare any two sites as one may round up and another down. (anyone know where to look for accurate data?) On the plus? side, the solar cycle does seem to have eventually restarted - but one sunspot does not make a summer! And anyone wanting to read an interesting article (albeit full of opinion and no fact) might be interested to read this Bugsy (talk) 23:21, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

Nope there is nothing certain about the cooler nature of 2007. In fact in many stations it is the hottest of the period 1881 - 2007! Such as Bournemouth, Bergen, Hannover, and Szczecin across a swath of northern Europe In St Petersburg it is 3rd hottest. In UK as a whole 2007 is second only to 2006 in the series from 1914 and for Central England Temperature(CET) 2007 is ahead of 2005 and 2001 and ties with 2004 out of the 7 years of this decade - overall it is 12th out of the last 349 so pretty good really.--AssegaiAli (talk) 20:54, 9 January 2008 (UTC)

As I understand it, the figures are already out. So why hasn't the graph of global temperature been amended to show 2007? If it were higher I've no doubt it would have been amended as soon as the figures were out! 212.139.94.152 (talk) 21:51, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

"Links"

Could the terms such as radiative Forcing be linked to their respective pages just to make it easier to read through the article and understand terms —Preceding unsigned comment added by 86.20.247.216 (talk) 12:27, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

Good point, I wikified it. --Splette :) 02:15, 14 January 2008 (UTC)

New(?) Solar Variation/Magnetic Field Controversy

The current issue of Science has an article about a dispute over how much a role solar variation (and magnetic fields) plays in the current global warming trend. It apparently started with this article that claims that some data correlation suggests that solar irradiance could have been a major forcing function of climate until the mid-1980s, when "anomalous"” warming becomes apparent. This was followed by a rebuttal report claiming that there was actually no such correlation.

This also brings up an issue, I think, with the "Solar Variation" subsection in the main article. The cloud seeding/galactic cosmic rays theory (or hypothesis) of Henrik Svensmark is predominant there, even though it's been shown to be unlikely to be a factor by both this paper by T. Sloan and A.W. Wolfendale from Durham University presented at the 30th International Cosmic Ray Conference, held last year. Very specific criticisms of the work of Svensmark and his collegue, especially in regards to how they created their plots, are also contained in this American Geophysical Union article. It looks to me that there is not enough offsetting of the cloud seeding/galactic cosmic rays hypothesis with things like the AGU report in the wiki article, especially since the it's not a mainstream theory and that solar irradiance in general is considered to be a minor factor at best, at least by the IPCC and other mainstream scientific bodies. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 16:09, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

I think the Coutillot stuff has no merit, and there is no need to disuss it; certainly not here. I've re-read the SV scetion of this page; to my mind, it correctly gives the impression that there are various ideas floating around. But I'm sure the section could be tweaked William M. Connolley (talk) 17:03, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

I was also considering the "consequences" of what happens when a paper like the Coutillot one appears, however its merits or lack thereof (There is also a nice critique of it by your old collegues here.) Do you think all this Galactic Cosmic Rays/Cloud Seeding related stuff should be put into a new FAQ item like they did at New Scientist here?

While not directly connected to all this, I noticed that this graph, taken from an IPCC report, seems to make for a very nice summary of the different factors in global warming. I think it would also make for a good addition to the main article page. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 17:34, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

Such a graph already exists. I agree, we should add it to Global warming or to Attribution of recent climate change--Splette :) 01:46, 14 January 2008 (UTC)

It looks a little different from the one I found, but it seems to have the exact same info. It it gets included, where would be the best location for it? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 17:21, 14 January 2008 (UTC)

Actually since it is essentially a summary or global warming (and cooling) causes along with their relative weight, it would appear that it's best suited for the "Causes" section, but there are already two carbon dioxide graphs there. Top, bottom, in-between, replace one of the CO2 graphs, or...? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 23:06, 14 January 2008 (UTC)

The solar variation section is here to stay, whether you like it or not. If and since it's discussed in the scientific literature, it too should be discussed on Misplaced Pages likewise. ~ UBeR (talk) 23:56, 17 January 2008 (UTC)

I wasn't aware that I had suggested its deletion here -- I do believe I was suggesting that the cloud seeding/galactic cosmic rays hypothesis, which is predominant in the Solar Variation section and essentially fringe-ish, should be offset more with things like that AGU paper and the Bard/Delaygue report -- does that make sense?

Also what you think of adding a summary chart of the global warming/cooling factors like this or this? Makes even more sense, no? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 04:04, 18 January 2008 (UTC)

Well, I added the chart and I hope people approve. It does seem to make for a concise summary of the relative weight of the various global climate warming/cooling factors, and I reworded the description as such, although it makes it little different to how the chart is described in the other climate-related wikis like this. While reseaching this I came across this NOAA ESRL page apparently regarding the certainty/uncertainty of how to regard some of the forcing factors, but it seems to be using 2001 IPCC info. FYI. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 14:46, 20 January 2008 (UTC)

I've updated the caption to show it's relative to 1750 as estimated by the IPCC. Also, there are too many pictures in that space, in my opinion. ~ UBeR (talk) 03:56, 21 January 2008 (UTC)

Agreed. The middle picture of the three (on CO2 variations) should be deleted, given that we also have the graph of the Mauna Loa CO2 record. Raymond Arritt (talk) 04:05, 21 January 2008 (UTC)

"Extreme weather events"

Recent New York Times article seems to imply that there is a significant scientific debate about the impact of global warming to the frequency of extreme weather events: "Roger A. Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, recently noted the very different reception received last year by two conflicting papers on the link between hurricanes and global warming. He counted 79 news articles about a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, and only 3 news articles about one in a far more prestigious journal, Nature. Guess which paper jibed with the theory — and image of Katrina — presented by Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth”? It was, of course, the paper in the more obscure journal, which suggested that global warming is creating more hurricanes. The paper in Nature concluded that global warming has a minimal effect on hurricanes. It was published in December — by coincidence, the same week that Mr. Gore received his Nobel Peace Prize." Does this need to be reflected in the Global warming article? --Doopdoop (talk) 18:13, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

There really hasn't been a comprehensive study of "extreme weather" by timeline and type, as far as I know, and I had looked high and low for something like that recently. And by extreme, I was looking for data on high variations, especially timewise, in temperature, precipitation, and so on above and beyond the number of hurricanes per season and such. At best, I only found stuff like this. With that said, there is this Misplaced Pages article that seems to cover most of the info that's currently available and you may want to give that a looksee first. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 18:31, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

What were the articles? Who wrote them? And how on earth is Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society -- the official organ of the UK's national academy of science, and the world's longest-standing scientific journal in the English language -- an "obscure journal"? Raymond Arritt (talk) 18:32, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

Doopdoop has an excellent point here. This really needs to be addressed in the article. Frenstad (talk) 23:29, 13 January 2008 (UTC)

Perhaps, but only after Doopdoop (or another editor) answers Raymond Arritt's very reasonable questions.--HughGRex (talk) 00:05, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

Obviously the New York Times article is biased. But if we take away the POVs, we can see that there are two papers in two top class scientific journals, reaching opposite conclusions about the impact on extreme weather events. So I think the degree of scientific debate about this should somehow be indicated in the global warming article. --Doopdoop (talk) 00:13, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

Not sure how this affects the article. The article is quite clear that an increase in extreme weather events is one effect of global warming that is possible, but does not claim that this is inevitable. Nor does the article make any claim at all about Katrina. So the article reflects the scientific "doubts", as Doopdoop suggests it should. The article is already quite cautionary in its tone. --Michael Johnson (talk) 00:40, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

It might also be a more efficient use of time to first know a little bit more about the person who wrote the column and his politics. And the column itself was only an opinion piece and not a news item. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 06:01, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

Column and politics of the author is irrelevant. Papers in Nature and UK journal are important and they indicate existence of a scientific debate about extreme weather events. --Doopdoop (talk) 18:15, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

Hurricanes aren't the only kind of severe weather -- there are tornadoes, heat waves, flash floods, lightning, hail, derechos, etc. etc. It's quite possible that severe weather in general will increase, while hurricanes will show no trend. Raymond Arritt (talk) 18:37, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

I think the politics of the author is quite relevant since you're taking him at his word that there is some sort of conflict or debate when nobody, as far as I can see, in the scientific community is really claiming that. Would you have a more authoritative cite? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 20:47, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

May vs Will

Regarding a recent change 'Increasing global temperature may cause sea level to rise; - changed to 'Increasing global temperature will cause sea level to rise'

That really depends on if your talking about average global temperature vs (all/every) global temperature. The former is 'may' the latter is 'will'. It is possible for the earth to get warmer overall and for the poles to stay frozen or even get colder. See Antarctica cooling controversy. The only verifible statment here is 'may'.--mitrebox (talk) 20:10, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

You're talking about polar temperatures, which aren't the same thing as sea level rise. Though it seems like they'd go hand in hand, observed evidence is that they don't. Almost half of observed sea level rise is due to thermosteric expansion (i.e., sea water becomes less dense as it warms). Melting of Greenland and Antarctica produce less than 20% of observed sea level rise. Raymond Arritt (talk) 20:21, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

Good call, I was talking about ice melting. Since you can't film expansion it never makes CNN, but since you actually know stuff I'll make this argument. Water is most dense 3.984 °C. One of those unique properties of water. Therefore thermosteric expansion only occurs once water is heated above 3.984 °C, before that the water is actually condensing. Therefore to figure out if the oceans are expanding due to thermal expansion you need to ensure that more area is being expanded due to heating above 3.984 °C than area contracted by heating of water to less than 3.984 °C.--mitrebox (talk) 21:40, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

Two important points. First, it's an interesting curiosity of geometry that half the surface area of the earth lies within 30 degrees N or S of the equator, i.e., in or near the tropics. So, the great majority of the ocean is well above freezing. But more importantly, sea water has a different behavior in terms of the relation of density to temperature. Fresh water is densest around 4C as you note, but sea water keeps getting denser all the way down to its freezing point. In other words, sea water is densest right at freezing, so that any temperature rise causes sea water to expand. Raymond Arritt (talk) 02:31, 16 January 2008 (UTC)

Exact, and another curiosity is that sea (=salty) water temperature can be less than 0 deg C. That is why water salinity is such an important parameter of water circulation, particularly in the polar regions. --Galahaad (talk) 14:10, 17 January 2008 (UTC)

Carbon emissions

Thought I would bring this up here as this page is probably one of the more watched: to where, if anywhere, should carbon emissions redirect? We have one going to greenhouse gas, and the other two (CO2 emissions and carbon dioxide emissions) to list of countries by carbon dioxide emissions. I would have thought carbon dioxide a better target than greenhouse gas. It could also be deleted entirely or given its own article, but if it is to be a redirect it needs to be consistent. Richard001 (talk) 02:57, 20 January 2008 (UTC)

Carbon dioxide mostly discusses the physical and chemical properties of the substance, and only touches on its role as a greenhouse gas. Anyone interested in carbon emissions is likely more interested in the greenhouse properties. Of the options you give, list of countries by carbon dioxide emissions is the most appropriate. Raymond Arritt (talk) 03:12, 20 January 2008 (UTC)

Op-Ed, Barbara Lee, D-Oakland

Barbara Lee wrote:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2001/06/18/ED193612.DTL

"The National Academy of Sciences recently revisited the issue of global warming at Bush's request. The report concluded that "greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities . . . Temperatures are, in fact, rising."

The report further stated that "national policy decisions made now and in the longer-term future will influence the extent of any damage suffered by vulnerable human populations and ecosystems later in this century."

Hmm. Anyone want to either add the refrence, ( there is NOTHING in the article regarding NAS ) or a link to the op-ed?

-ostrich society —Preceding unsigned comment added by 67.188.118.64 (talk) 10:00, 20 January 2008 (UTC)

The NAS is mentioned in the intro, though not directly. There's no reason to focus on just one particular academy of science. Besides, op-eds are not the best of sources. ~ UBeR (talk) 20:39, 20 January 2008 (UTC)

Why no mention of the link to deforestation of the Amazon rain forest?

For 5 decades this has continued unabated and is being accelerated. Misplaced Pages states that between 1991 and 2000 an area twice the size of Portugal was lost. This is a major contributor to the rise of co2 surely? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 86.140.139.87 (talk • contribs)

I have heard that deforestation accounts for about 25% of emissions worldwide. Also, this is already mentioned in the article. Look for the word deforestation. Brusegadi (talk) 02:24, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

Thanks. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 86.140.139.87 (talk) 02:52, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

I heard bananas are delicious, look for the word bananas--mitrebox (talk) 04:10, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

If you want to be like that, its on "Economic Development" Ninth Edition by Todaro and Smith on page 791. In that book they use the explicitly say 25%. The source used in this article has a value of about 25% which is fair enough. Brusegadi (talk) 05:15, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

From the summary for policymakers of the IPCC's fourth assessment report: The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. Annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions increased from an average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s to 7.2 GtC per year in 2000–2005 (2004 and 2005 data are interim estimates). Carbon dioxide emissions associated with land-use change are estimated to be 1.6 GtC per year over the 1990s, although these estimates have a large uncertainty. Splette :) 04:30, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

Not disagreeing with you and thank you for providing the source. Just making fun of your sentence 'I heard'. Sounds like gossiping women in a beauty parlor (look for the word gossiping). --mitrebox (talk) 15:10, 22 January 2008 (UTC)

A Novel Approach

The elements of Global Warming herein identified are symptoms of a deeper cause. In March 2006, Popular Science reported that the earth received from meteorites alone over two hundred tons of mass debris daily; this does not include other forms of mass increase. Knowing this and applying the mass accumulation into E=mc2, we know that an acceleration is taking place. Unless some phenomenon halts this, then logically and very much realistically, earth can accelerate itself into energy. On this path to energy, primarily due to acceleration, heat will increase. This is the real cause of global warming. As doctors in the medical field mask symptoms because they fail to discover cause, so scientists today are dealing with the mere symptoms of global warming, rather than the real issue, which is earthly mass increase that causes acceleration, which acceleration is attended by heat necessary for transitional phases from mass to energy. Yes, really think about it. Phillip Frank, a contemporary physicist with Einstein, wrote in his book, Phillip Frank, that if a body is know to be gaining mass, it is also known to be accelerating in direct relationship with its mass accumulation. Some have tried to counter by arguing that even though it is gaining in mass, that all the other universal variables, changing accordingly, hold its surge toward energy in check. However, this is a weak argument, since if mass on the atomic level, surrounded by a microcosmic universe, accelerates with its increase.

This is not my version of anything. The formula for energy has already stood the test of time. Its says this: if mass is increasing, it is accelerating. The earth is increasing daily in tons of mass. Plug the mass gain into the formula E=mc2 and let the figures formulate your truth. It is accelerating. The mass expansion, along with the acceleration cause heat. For example, take a round, deflated balloon and cup it between your two hands. When it expands by being blown up very rapidly, you will feel heat upon the skin of the balloon. The rapid, molecular expansion causes heat. For example, take a round, deflated balloon and cup it between your two hands. When it expands by being blown up very rapidly, you will feel heat upon the skin of the balloon. The rapid, molecular expansion causes heat. Though this example is not an exact one, it will do as an illustration for the elementary mind of those less steeped and matured in the law of energy transformation. That light is affected by gravity had to be proved by shooting a laser beam past the moon during an eclipse because there were those learned, but elementary scientists who simply hadn't the visual acumen to imagine what Einstein had.

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