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faq page Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change? A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists. See also: Scientific consensus on climate change Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place? A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)." Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans? A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics, including academically trained ones, they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives: Current human emissions of CO2 are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. This is easily seen in a graph of CO2 concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend. Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels. Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels. If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic). Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it? A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated? A5: Two reasons: There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly. However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations. Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import. Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"? A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2? A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles. See also: Clathrate gun hypothesis and Arctic methane release Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled? A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change. This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998? A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998. More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out; thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement? A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name." Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD. While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference: A map of the Eastern Settlement A satellite image of that area today A map of the Western Settlement A satellite image of that area today A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists? A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years? A12: Measurements show that it has not. Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts. Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. See also: Arctic sea ice decline See also: Antarctic sea ice § Recent trends and climate change Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming? A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming. The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975. (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.) The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming. Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect? A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change. Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. See also: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)? A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming. A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars. Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'" There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change. This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices. Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates. Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Misplaced Pages's own article. See also: Climate of Mars and Extraterrestrial atmosphere Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money? A16: No, Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses. Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work. There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming. Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data. Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist. Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity? A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe? A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important? A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities. Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change. Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby? A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Misplaced Pages is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Misplaced Pages is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before? A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays? A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment: Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires: Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation, These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN), The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and Cloud cover on Earth must be declining. Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step." Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true? A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References ^ Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020. ^ "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020. Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help) Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009. Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009. "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007. Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467. The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012. "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009. Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017. The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða. "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009. Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64. Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek. Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes. Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN. "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011. Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the Climate change article. This is not a forum for general discussion of the article's subject.

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Cite doi finally

Keep making proposals and forgetting to follow up. In June, we talked about switching to article to {{Cite doi}} since the sorter format is easier to read in the edit window. In August, we talked again about switching, but got sidetracked. You guys mind if I make the switch today? ChyranandChloe (talk) 02:39, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

Go for it.--CurtisSwain (talk) 08:21, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

You may also want to consider the method used on Climatic Research Unit e-mail hacking incident, where the references are separated from the text like this:

{{Reflist|2|refs= ....(references with names here)....}}

it would require a good naming system ("author(year)"?), and some maintainence - but it does make the text alot easier to edit. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:59, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

Yeah, I saw Dragon's flight make the proposal to integrate this feature into WP in WP:CITE. It's done here, but to a lesser extent. Thanks though. I'll have it taken care of by weekend's end, busier than expected this week. ChyranandChloe (talk) 22:21, 15 December 2009 (UTC)

Seconding (or thirding?) Kim's suggestion. I agree that LDR improves the readability of the editable article. I've used it a fair bit; I haven't been rigorous about choosing a reference naming convention, but I agree with Kim, especially in the case of scientific articles. I've generally ordered my references in the same order they appear in the article, but if we adopt a reference naming system as Kim suggests, perhaps the references should be alpha sorted.--SPhilbrickT 13:34, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

I dislike {{cite doi}} as it allows an easy way for vandals to modify highly visible pages by making edits to templates that are not watched by many people. It also makes updating the references more difficult. -Atmoz (talk) 22:50, 15 December 2009 (UTC)

It's a system:

1. Plan. Most references, especially the generic style of scientific journals, do not need to be modified; when it does need to be modified, the edit button may be easier to use than the code window (especially since the refs here are tightly compacted).
2. Protect. When the ref is stable, and the edit button removed (by passing "noedit" into the second parameter) a bot regularly maintains the ref accordingly. Without the edit button, it's much harder for vandals to find the page. There are other templates that are not protected but used (e.g. {{Cnote2}}, {{Chem}}), and they are not vandalized despite their greater danger.
3. Preserve. For us, there's plans to create an anti-vandal bot to watch these pages and notify a notice board. We could ask for cascade semi-protect if things get bad.

ChyranandChloe (talk) 04:04, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

I dislike the closed cite-doi's, there are reasons for changing references, and this makes it rather hard to find out where to edit (imho). There are pro's and con's to this. Frankly i think that WP:LDR with regular references (or doi's), and a good naming system makes more sense than exchanging everything inline with cite-doi's. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:21, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm sure there are reasons for and against, but it helps to actually say what they are. However, it seems that the trolls are too taxing on time. Your time is important, I'll bring this up when things cool down, but I do expect a good reply. ChyranandChloe (talk) 19:02, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Regardless, something has to be done to bring consistency to the reference format. Having a jumbled style of referencing could lead to a FAR/featured article review. Thegreatdr (talk) 21:51, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

Wait until the rest has cooled down, it'll get fixed. What plans do you have in mind? Any specific methods or goals? We can start there while we wait. ChyranandChloe (talk) 21:13, 23 December 2009 (UTC)

I trust you will ensure that your vandal-bot restricts its activities to genuine vandalism rather rather dissenting opinion. Martin Hogbin (talk) 12:13, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

no discussion of controversy

About a year ago on the discussion for some article about global warming I said that it was necessary to discuss details that could refute people that I know who think the data is faked, as opposed to having different interpretations for valid data. Now the wheel has turned and such a controversy has hit the press. Somebody needs to cover it. I would think the thermodynamics of arctic ice shrinkage would be a good issue to argue. Failing to talk about the controversy with the emails may represent a neutrality issue. Patrij (talk) 15:46, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

We discuss the Climatic Research Unit e-mail hacking incident in an article of its own. We aren't a website for debunking myths but there are plenty of such websites out there and they do a good job. --TS 15:52, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

I think you'll find that the mainstream media has moved on already. The current global warming news is all about the Copenhagen conference and opinions about the Copenhagen Accord. There was no new GW science revealed by those emails. The story, the misunderstandings and the counter-arguments have not changed as a result of them. --Nigelj (talk) 15:56, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

Well, the mainstream media have never tried to clarify what all the dirty science that the emails really expose. What you would seem with some exceptions, was an apologetic trash trying to dismiss the case as nothing, without ever showing the text of the emails. But we have loads of articles from reliable sources, as for example the british telegraph (see this, for example), that shows exactly what this emails and computer code really mean. On another thread we have seem how the wikipedia has been manipulated by a few of administrator to push the alarmist view of global warming. It is a joke that in any place of the global warming article we have any citation of the climategate article. Seem taxpayer funded "researchers" have been working around the clock to stop any credible information to appear on this article. Echofloripa (talk) 16:06, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

You've just referred to an opinion piece by Christopher Booker, who as well as having no scientific qualifications also has an appalling record of spreading his misconceptions as critiques of science, as a "reliable source". That isn't up to our sourcing standards. --TS 16:11, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

I think this is a legitimate concern... this article should at least mention the e-mail incident and its impact in passing, as it goes to the very heart of the skepticism that exists. Should there be more than a sentence and a link? Probably not... but it should be mentioned. Blueboar (talk) 15:17, 23 December 2009 (UTC)

I strongly disagree with Blueboar. The e-mail incident has been assessed by independent parties who demonstrated that although some of the authors were petty there was no indication of falsified data. It's a tempest in a tea pot that only extended beyond a criminal investigation for invasion of privacy because global warming pseudo-skeptics believed it was <sarcasm>fodder to stop the Evil World Government from taking away their coal burning SUVs.</sarcasm> Simonm223 (talk) 15:22, 23 December 2009 (UTC)

Then say that. The scandal had an impact beyond just the skeptics. It has had an impact on how the general population views Global Warming preditions and the science behind them. It may have been a tempest in a tea-pot to scientists... it may have been nothing but media hype... but it had a significant impact on how the general population views the issue. It is going to take years for the scientific community to regain the trust of the general population. The email scandal has had an impact, and we can not and should not simply ignore it. Blueboar (talk) 15:05, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't think Misplaced Pages should be a party to the continued attempts to vilify the victims of a crime. Giving attention to the issue does just that. Simonm223 (talk) 15:13, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

But if you point out what you say above... ie that the e-mail incident has been assessed by independent parties who demonstrated that there was no indication of falsified data, you are not vilifying the victims of a crime. You are in fact supporting them by refuting the allegation. The incident occured, and it has had an impact on how the general public undertands the issue of global warming... All I am suggesting is that we don't stick our heads in the sand and ignore it. Blueboar (talk) 22:28, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

The problem with that is that we would, sort of, attempt to bring in the "latest news" in this article. In such cases you typically have a lot of junk reported in otherwise reliable sources and you only have at most a few correct assesments in peer reviewed journals. I think in this case there only has been one Nature editorial about this incident that would qualify as a publication in a relveant peer reviewed source (relevant because Nature publishes a lot of climate science articles). Editors who do believe that the hacking incident points to something sinister going on can then attempt to bring in their favorite sources that prove them correct. So, the discussion will then degenerate into a discussion about the reliability of sources. E.g. an argument could be: "why would a Nature editorial be more reliable than a Wall Street Journal editorial, surely the former is not independent?". Any arguments presented here explaining why the Nature editorial is releally more reliable and why many of the newspapers articles are wrong can be shot down on the basis of OR.

So, we should not attempt to bring the latest news as the wiki-policies are not really designed to deal with that in articles of a scientific nature. Count Iblis (talk) 23:39, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

The point is that no science was revealed by the e-mail/source code/document hack at CRU. The science hasn't changed, and this article is about the science. Actually, global warming hasn't changed and this article is about global warming - the glaciers are still melting, the insects are still doing whatever they do weeks earlier in the year, etc. If a massive cock-up were to be revealed (which it hasn't) then new scientific papers would be published and we would eagerly report the changes here. That would take a few months (this isn't a 'daily news' article), but that process isn't even in motion over the CRU e-mails. It's just irrelevant. Except in the minds of the most extreme, big-oil-funded, nutters. There are other articles about the hack (which is up to date) and about Public opinion on climate change that may reflect all this, when it has been measured and written up in WP:RS. --Nigelj (talk) 00:01, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

RfC: Oppressive editing and page ownership

Removal of material section

Misplaced Pages:Administrators'_noticeboard/Incidents

RE: Misplaced Pages:Administrators'_noticeboard/Incidents#.22RfC:_Oppressive_editing_and_page_ownership.22_at_Talk:Global_warming

As I wrote at the ANI started by 2over0, I support global warming 100%, but I think it is a really bad idea to squelch dissent. Global warming editors have a good reason to complain, for years, one side has been unequally represented on the global warming pages, and editors have been unfairly blocked repeatedly. The behavior has been so bad that journalists have written negative articles about global warming editing on wikipedia.

2over0, let editors vent their frustration here, or it will only lead to bigger drama and frustration later.

Moderating conversations is harder in the short term, but squelching dissent always makes for much more drama and headache later. Ikip 18:49, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

Airing grievances is fine - in fact, that is why we have Dispute resolution. It is only that it is being done here and distracting from discussion of improvements to Global warming. The archived discussion remains available for anyone who would like to start a related thread at any of the several venues mentioned above, or anywhere else appropriate that I might have missed. Thank you, though, for your input - the possibility that it could in the long term be more productive to let the discussion play out here is why I asked. - 2/0 (cont.) 19:00, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

I agree completely with Ikip, above. --Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 22:41, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

Ikip's comment is based on a fundamental fallacy. S/he says, "one side has been unequally represented", but in the science of global warming, there is only one 'side': the science is now settled; those who try to dispute that are not working, published, practicing scientists, but bloggers, journalists, politicians, members of the public, and a very vocal minority paid to do so by Big Oil dollars. The place where there are two sides to the argument (those who get the science and those who don't) is in Public opinion on climate change. This article is the parent article about the science. There are sub-articles for all the education, politics and discussion that is going on worldwide. --Nigelj (talk) 22:49, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

That is your opinion. There really is no basis for excluding one entire side of an issue or debate. the fact that you would say that there is only one side, highlights the real issue at this entry. --Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 22:56, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

Agree with Ikip and Sm8900, seems like some folks are working a POV with no conclusive source support, that's a serious issue with behavior reminiscent of owning the article. Particularly where scientific opinions are concerned. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 00:56, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm sorry, I think that Sm8900 and ZuluPapa5 have lost me in their "opinions" and "POV with no conclusive source support" statements. The article seems pretty well representative of the science behind the issue (which IMO is more useful than a summary of journalists' opinions), and being based on the scientific reports, it is certainly conclusively supported by its sources. Am I just misunderstanding what you are trying to say? Awickert (talk) 03:09, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Awickert, that comment sounds a tiny bit disingenuous; is it possible that you already do know what we mean? anyway, we mean that a group of editors have prevented this entry from fairly presenting both sides of the debate on this. --Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 05:41, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

OK, then I did understand what you said. But I don't agree. I see this article as fairly presenting all scientific sides to the debate (albeit very much simplified). I don't see it presenting all political sides. And I think that this is OK because the politicians aren't the experts and this covers the science. Is your point that this should cover public controversy in a broader way? (Note that outside the USA, I'm not even sure if I know what the public controversy is.) Anyway, I think that this is the root of the problem - you and ZP5 are saying that others are being biased, while we say that we are trying to be unbiased by including only science and none of the political mishmash. Awickert (talk) 06:17, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

@ Awickert: pardon me for arguing for a side of the debate that I happen to think is wrong, but you seem to be defending a content fork that is dangerously close to being a POV-fork. If this were my decision to make, the main article global warming would be a discussion of the political debate, and the scientific aspects of global warming would be shuffled off into a sub-section or a minor secondary article called, say, 'Global warming research'. That's because global warming (properly understood) is primarily a social/political issue: the science of global warming was around for a good decade or two before it got any public notice, most people today are not interested in the scientific aspects except to the extent that scientists give thumbs up or thumbs down to particular political points, and the problem itself is a political problem that requires political solutions - scientists' only business here is to confirm that the effect is real, and leave the solution to the effect to the rest of the world. Yet you seem to be arguing that the main article on global warming should be strictly about the science, with no reference to the political debates at all (except for what amounts to a cast-off in the last section). I cannot see any justification for that belief; please enlighten me if I am missing something.

I think the approach best suited to wikipedia policy would be to move the current Global warming controversy article to this page, and merge this page into Scientific opinion on climate change. That would resolve the appearance that this is PoV-forking without doing anything to minimize the power of the scientific perspective. What problems would you have with that? --Ludwigs2 07:15, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm about to go to bed, so I hope that this is coherent. (Important to note: I am not one of the main contributors to this article.)

• This article has been strictly about the science for many years, and that since the subject is rooted in public interest in science, having the global warming article about science seems OK to me. But (2 paragraphs down), I do think that we can reach some agreement.

• "content fork that is dangerously close to being a POV-fork": I would disagree because citing a wide swath of scientific publications IMO satisfies WP:NPOV, but I believe that you disagree with me because you believe "global warming" to be more importantly a social phenomenon than a scientific conclusion.

The first bullet is legacy, let's forget that. The second is more important. I think it's better for Misplaced Pages to be an educational resource, showing people what the professional scientists are doing, than to simply cite newspapers (many of which bungle the facts) for information on an ongoing debate that they probably already know about and may already have an opinion about. I therefore feel that forking this whole article off to a research section would be an unfortunate, and could turn this article from a good, scientific one into a mass media extravaganza.

Here's my thought: In a heated issue, is is better to dispassionately present the facts as the experts best know them instead of reiterating the opinions of commentators (who have varying degrees of qualification to competently comment). So if anything, I would add more information on research to this article instead of less. But facts can also be about what politicians are going to do about the issue, and that is important as well. So I wouldn't mind reworking both the "Responses to global warming" and "Debate and skepticism" sections into a single section about response proposals and related political debate. But this would need to be discussed by everyone here, as it would be a non-minor change.

My view in short: In matters of science in an encyclopedia, science should not be subordinate to popular belief. In matters of politics, facts should be presented dispassionately. Awickert (talk) 08:03, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

one of these days I'm going to have to put a "Warning! Political Scientist as Work!" sign on my sig. I don't disagree with anything you've said here, but from my perspective the observation that numbers of voices are loudly bungling the issue is an interesting and important fact - more important in some ways than the facts that are being bungled. the scientific debate over global warming is pretty much a done deal; to my knowledge there hasn't been a fully accreditable scientific statement against global warming since the mid-90s. The political and social debates over global warming, however, are just now getting their second wind, and you can expect them to continue for years yet. besides which, the only reason global warming is a public issue at all is because it pits the vested interests of corporate entities, nation/states, and the mass of humanity against each other in political spheres. scientists need to tell us whether global warming is real, yes, but how are scientists going to help us deal with the balance between (say) China's deep interest in industrial growth and the geometric increase in pollution that entails?

matters of science should not be subordinate to popular belief, sure; but the question is which science we are talking about. I'd say this problem falls squarely in poli sci territory, not climatology.

but you're right, it's way too late to debate these things effectively. pick it up again tomorrow. --Ludwigs2 08:30, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Is Global warming primarily a political/social issue? If there were no science, then what would the politicians and political commentators be talking about? Scientists aren't giving the thumbs up and thumbs down, they're the ones going to the economist, who go up the politicians, and who ask whether they can get a thumbs up or down on a certain policy. It would be nice if it were the other way around, and the politicians and political commentators went up the scientists and asked: look at my news report or my slideshow, is it remotely accurate? From the news sources, even reporters reporting on "a recent study found such and such", seem to get the facts wrong or misrepresented. However, I think we could do a better job describing the politics of global warming, but I don't think it should be the main focus of this article.

Is having the science be the focus a PoV content fork? Everything is a PoV fork, and maybe it's just the epidemiology PoVed part of me that saying that this mentality is spreading like a disease. How often do we get a proposal to include, say Climategate, and that to oppose would eventually lead to a NPOV violation? Why can't the discussion's subject stick to relevance, or notability, and not move to embittered PoVed editors who warp and oppress and manipulate and lie? (We haven't got lies yet, have we? Ludwigs2, you lie that a resolve is to have politics at the forefront. !. ?. :P. ?.)

You're right, let's assume you're right. To resolve this PoV-fork we'll move Global warming controversy here and move Global warming to GW research merged with Scientific opinion on climate change. Global warming controversy is over 120 KBs long with several PoV-forks that are now being proposed to be moved back (Climate change denial, Climate change consensus). Politics of global warming, well we don't even have enough editors interested in objectively describing an un-objective issue to build it beyond the bare-bones. I think if we followed through, it wouldn't resolve a content PoV-fork, it'll do the opposite. Because then WMC will have a foundation to introduce green party rhetoric, Rush, Al Gore, and on. Look, there's a lot of interest in politics, but not in an neutral or objective manner. If there were, I wouldn't have to ask for the fourth time (see Archive 55), that paragraph four could be improved in the section "Debate and skepticism", and from there we can improve our coverage of the politics of global warming. ChyranandChloe (talk) 09:48, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Ludwigs is right. there are major dimensions to this issue not discussed in this entry, due to the ongoing fixated view adopted by a group of editors. the entry should be more encyclopedic, and cover more societal aspects of this issue and topic. -Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 14:38, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

hmmm... if there were no science around GW, then we'd all be blithely tumbling down the path to our own species' extinction. But we seem to be blithely tumbling down that path even with the science. Heaven knows I don't want to sell the scientists short, because without the scientists the activists wouldn't have a leg to stand on, and the environment would be largely uninhabitable by the end of this century. but it's the activists who are going to avert the disaster if the disaster is going to be averted, because averting the disaster means changing the way people think about their world.

and me, I never lie; I am the soul of goodness and mercy. Also, I have this marvelous beachfront property in Florida for sale if you're interested...

I'm new to this page, so I can't speak to the troubles it has seen (though I can imagine them, given what I know about the real-world political tribulations). But I don't think that primary sources from advocates or critics who aren't scientists have much of a place in the article. as far as I can see it, the article should have this kind of a structure:

• outline of the political debate
• pro and con position statements from notable primary sources (brief and succinct, without much argumentation)
• discussions of pro and con positions from secondary sources
  • scholarly viewpoints
  • notable advocacy position from both sides, clearly presented as advocacy
• position of scientific perspectives in the political debate
  • scientific results, en claire
  • public and private sector politics surrounding the scientific results
• real-world ramifications
  • political problems dealing with climate change (national and corporate counter-interests, mostly)
  • worst and best case environmental scenarios as presented by opposing sides

I think that covers all of the relevant issues and includes all sides of the debate fairly, while controlling the spread of yakkity-yak (material that comes from relatively uniformed primary - e.g. pundit - sources, in all its endless glory). Might need to spawn content forks from some of these; just have to be careful not to let the content forks run way like rabid raccoons. --Ludwigs2 14:38, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

This article is about the science. There are other articles about the politics. --TS 14:43, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

thanks Tony, but I've already addressed that particular point above. please don't make me repeat myself. --Ludwigs2 15:13, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

It's simpler than that: this article is about a globe that is warming. Global warming is the title and that is what it is about. The measurement and modelling of that warming. The only way to measure the warming of the earth is by scientific measurements and computer models. The warming of the earth is not something you can measure with opinion polls or focus groups. All of that comes under reactions to the warming of our globe. That's why all the subarticles are about the politics, economics, public opinion, crimes, conferences, etc. Read the words of the title. --Nigelj (talk) 15:27, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I had read your earlier comments, Ludwigs2. I'm just concerned that you seem to be persisting in redefining this well established article to be on relatively subsidiary subjects already covered by subsidiary articles. It's a bit like going to the evolution article and proposing that we cover the subject, in that article, from the point of view of politics and religion rather than science. It isn't going to happen. --TS 15:31, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I can imagine that a political scientist might sincerely think that more people come to Misplaced Pages looking for material on the politics bubbling around the topic, than for (scientific) information on global warming itself. But that is a matter of speculation, and the phrase "global warming" primarily denotes a physical phenomenon of climate, not a political phenomenon. If we really want to make it easier for readers to find the political material, we can put a "see also" at the top of this article. But even that seems wrong to me. Bertport (talk) 15:54, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

@ Tony: first off, it is not up to you to decide what is and isn't going to happen on this article; that should be a matter for debate and consensus. I understand the value of hyperbole like that, but please don't make the mistake of believing it's true.

That being said, your analogy doesn't hold any water. Evolution is and always has been primarily a scientific issue; one with strong religious overtones, that unfortunately produce some nasty political conflicts, but the debates there have always centered on issues of pedagogy (the teaching of evolution) and so the entire discussion still falls within the realm of science (since science is one of the primary sources of knowledge for educational purposes). questions about global warming, however, invariably focus on political and social behaviors - it is not about teaching people the science of global warming except to the extent that science is useful to teach people about the ethics of global warming. This article as it stands is a very nice explanation of the science of global warming (and I wouldn't want to change that), but as such it is an entirely secondary point in the greater debate about global warming (which has to do with the questions about what, if any, social or political actions should be taken).

and please, don't insult my intelligence with Sesame Street arguments (Global warming is about a globe that is warming - yeeee...); If I want to play word games I'll do a crossword.

@ Bertport: I believe people come to wikipedia looking for both kinds of information, and I believe wikipedia should provide both kinds of information, and I believe that it should be provided with an appropriate structure. I think it's safe to say that anyone who comes to wikipedia looking for scientific information on GW is doing that because they are curious about the political debates on GW and want information in that context; I sincerely doubt that many people come to wikipedia thinking about the science first with the politics a distant second. if you believe, however that a significant proportion of the 20k hits per day this page gets are from people whose main interest is in the details of of how climatology is done, well... you are free make that argument. --Ludwigs2 17:18, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I agree that it's likely that most of the reader traffic to this article now is sparked in some way by the political maelstrom. But that doesn't mean they come here looking primarily for description of the politics. I came here looking for authoritative information on global warming, which means scientific information on the physical phenomena. I am secondarily interested in what Misplaced Pages might have to say on the politics, and I can easily find that when I look at the table of contents for this article and see a section on "debate and skepticism", and if the summary there is not sufficient for me, then I can easily follow the "see also" links there. This article is about global warming, and the politics are a related topic. The science is, quite properly and obviously, the primary content for this physical phenomenon. Sorry if you think it's a Sesame Street argument. I'm sorry you seem to need this spelled out for you. Bertport (talk) 17:48, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

If you want an article that states only one side of the story then the article title should make that clear as in, for example, 'The scientific case for AGW'. Martin Hogbin (talk) 16:41, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

The Great Referencing Discussion

Somebody in the Super Secret Cabal RFC above mentioned that a big problem with this article is the uneven use of references. Well it strikes me that if there's so much cohesion that editors are accused of acting as a cabal, we ought to be able to reach an agreement on what referencing style to use.

I suggest that we might use template:citation. It's pretty compendious and is suitable for inline references or for references at the bottom of a page. Since this article refers to some sources again and again and the content of the article evolves quite slowly, perhaps the latter method could be adopted. --TS 06:16, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

Agree with TS on this. We should use this template and move all references down into the reflist template as done in the Climategate-article.Nsaa (talk) 13:21, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

Disagree.

1. Wouldn't that make it easy to loose references? Change a section of text, but forget to remove the citation buried with 139 others.
2. If you look at the souce, {{Citation}}, {{Cite journal}}, {{Cite web}}, and on are just special cases of {{Citation/core}} or {{Citation/patent}} where appropriate. Cite journal and such were created to make it easier to tell whether the citation is from a scientific journal or a web page. And in terms of consistency? They all use the same engine to produce text. So it makes no difference style-wise to use {{Citation}} or {{Cite journal}}.

Fix the references that are just URLs, that should probably be our first priority. I believe we need consistency, but have something else in mind. ChyranandChloe (talk) 10:39, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

New study says CFCs and cosmic rays, not CO2, are main cause of global warming.

I think this is worth citing in the article, but I want to see if there's a consensus for including it before I add it. If the consensus is against including it, then I won't add it. What do others here think of it? Grundle2600 (talk) 03:34, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

The actual scientific paper can be found here. Grundle2600 (talk) 03:39, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

The abstract isn't much to go on and our library doesn't have the full paper yet. Thus I don't yet have an opinion other than the standard advice to wait and see if it has an impact on the field. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 05:14, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

Thank you for looking and commenting.Grundle2600 (talk) 12:50, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

CO2 over 650ka

This source (Neftel et al.) is referenced to source the following statement: "These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores." This source, however, does not support that statement. The source discusses CO2 concentrations from about 1750. I inserted the dubious tag not because the statement itself is false, but because an inappropriate source is being used. I think the source wanting to be used is Spahni et al., 2005. (Keep in mind, though, Spanhi et al. dicuss CH4 and N2O. Petit et al., 1999, discuss CO2 as do Siegenthaler et al., 2005). Cheers. ~ UBeR (talk) 19:03, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

Radiative forcing

The section 'Radiative forcing' begins 'External forcing is...'. If the section is about radiative forcing, why does it begin like this? Also the definition of external forcing is weak: 'processes external to the climate system'. Any processes? Thought processes? Surely some qualification is needed. Processes which have some measurable effect on the climate system?I love SUV's (talk) 09:53, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

Divergence problem

Could someone explain why the Divergence problem is not mentioned in this important article? There is a lot about this in the evil capitalist right-wing press, and there is even material on it in Misplaced Pages.

"While the thermometer records indicate a substantial warming trend, many tree rings do not display a corresponding change in their width. A temperature trend extracted from tree rings alone would not show any substantial warming. The temperature graphs calculated in these two ways thus "diverge" from one another since the 1950s, which is the origin of the term."

Why is this not mentioned in this article? The fact that it isn't surely gives credence to the evil right-wing view that Misplaced Pages is being manipulated. I love SUV's (talk) 09:33, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I uploaded the chart above as, surprisingly, it does not seem to have been included in Misplaced Pages anywhere. A question: in the many articles about 'scientific consensus' in Misplaced Pages, is there anything about the consensus on the Divergence problem? I have skimmed through the literature and the only consensus I could find was that the problem is itself caused by anthropogenic global warming. I.e. the failure of the tree ring evidence to support the global warming hypothesis is itself caused by anthropogenic global warming. I love SUV's (talk) 10:46, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

The divergence problem is a possible (not necessary, as the divergence can be explained by a number of other factors) problem for tree-ring based temperature reconstructions. It's not a problem for the basic theory of anthropogenic global warming, since the warming is well-attested in the instrumental record, and the basic mechanisms have been understood since long before we could measure the effect. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 11:16, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

You say, the basic mechanisms have been understood since long before we could measure the effect. Pehaps you could tell me what these are. Martin Hogbin (talk) 12:09, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't doubt the divergence problem isn't a problem for the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. My point was, why is this problem so little discussed in the main article? Indeed it's not mentioned at all. You have to hunt around Misplaced Pages to find it. Why isn't there a section saying e.g., that there is an apparent problem with the temperature record, but this is not a problem for the basic theory of anthropogenic global warming, since the warming is well-attested in the instrumental record? There could then be a discussion about the consensus among scientists about why the problem exists. Is there a consensus among scientists about why divergence exists, by the way? Also, is there any literature on why it is called 'divergence'? Presumably because there is evidence of correlation between instrumental record before 1950s? If so, what is the measure of correlation? What are the statistical tests used to distinguish such correlation from mere chance? It is quite easy to find apparent correlation in randomly generated data samples. And so on. I love SUV's (talk) 13:28, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

@ Martin - yes I would also like to know what basic mechanism has been 'understood'. Many of the papers I have looked at state categorically that the feedback mechanism (on which climate models depend) is not well understood at all. I love SUV's (talk) 13:33, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

E.g. here "Many facets of the earth's climatic system are poorly understood. A significant uncertainty associated with the modeling of future climatic changes is due to deficiencies in the understanding of, and in the incorporation into the climate models of, several interactive climate feedback mechanisms." So why is Schulz saying that it is well understood? I love SUV's (talk) 13:34, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

It is understood well enough to make predictions for the temperature rise due to a doubling of CO2 concentrations within some reasonable interval of a few K. We don't understand the climate well enough to make a prediction without having to specify an uncertainty. Count Iblis (talk) 13:46, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

The divergence problem applies to some forests (and really, not all forests) in the extreme northern hemisphere. It does not seem to apply to southern forests, though this could be because of paucity of samples. It's a bit of a fringe subject and until recently didn't even have a Misplaced Pages article. I wouldn't expect to see it covered in this kind of article. It is covered in dendroclimatology. --TS 13:48, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm sorry why is it a 'fringe subject', given there is a considerable literature on it since the 1990's, and why does it not apply to this article, given that dendroclimatology is one of the underpinnings of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis? It is also essential to understanding climategate. If the instrumental record, which is patchy in the early periods, is all we have to go by, it is difficult to distinguish the current warm period from noise. I love SUV's (talk) 14:14, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

We're not journalists and we don't put our opinions into the articles. We just report on the science. The divergence problem is not a major part of climatology; nor is it regarded as a major problem in climatology. The current warming trend would still be here even if we discarded all of dendroclimatology. Contrary to your claim, the current warming trend is clearly distinguishable from noise. --TS 14:22, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I am not a journalist. Misplaced Pages is an important reference work. Given the considerable popular belief that the divergence problem is a problem, why can't that be in the article. If it really isn't a problem, why can't there be a short section saying so? If the current warming is distinguishable from noise, why not a simple explanation of why this is? All this denial and talking down to the plebs actually makes me more suspicious than ever. I love SUV's (talk) 14:31, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Ah, but you are asking for your own opinions to be put into the article. For instance you think there is "considerable popular belief that the divergence problem is a problem" (I doubt whether one person in 1000 has even heard of it, but my opinion on this is no better than yours).

And you also seem to be mistaking this encyclopedia article on global warming for some kind of newspaper piece. You want us to address "popular belief". There are other articles about popular beliefs concerning climate change. This one is about the science. If you think talking about science in an article about the science is "denial and talking down to plebs", you should probably find an article about a non-science subject where this style of encyclopedic writing about science will not be a problem for you.

And here I must stop encouraging further responses. Nothing in this discussion is about this article on the science of global warming at all. --TS 14:41, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

1. Google 'divergence problem climategate' for evidence of the popular belief I referred to. 2. Please explain why the divergence problem is nothing to do with the science of global warming, given my arguments above (namely that there is a considerable literature on it) 3. Reasonable reply to my other argument above, namely that there should be a short section about the divergence 'problem' and why it isn't a problem. I love SUV's (talk) 16:46, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

This article isn't about 'popular belief'; whatever can usefully be added to the science by dendroclimatology has been added by the scientists, and published and discussed in their peer-reviewed papers. The whole of the science of GW has been, in huge detail. Do you really think that you and a few bloggers have thought of something all the scientists, the peer reviewers, the publishers etc have missed? If there was anything like that that was missed, there would (or very soon will be) peer reviewed papers altering the established science. There is no such thing; if there is, let us know; if it's just the right-wing press, then forget it - grown-up science isn't so easy that everyone can just turn up and have a go any time they like. --Nigelj (talk) 16:59, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

You entirely mistake my point. Where popular belief is widespread and mistaken, isn't it the job of a reference work to address that? By explaining carefully and clearly why the belief is wrong. I am simply asking that there be a short section about the divergence problem and why it isn't a problem. I love SUV's (talk) 17:04, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

@ Tony's claim that "The divergence problem is not a major part of climatology", see e.g. D'Arrigo 2008 : "... reconstructions based on northern tree-ring data impacted by divergence cannot be used to directly compare past natural warm periods (notably, the MWP) with recent 20th century warming, making it more difficult to state unequivocally that the recent warming is unprecedented." (p. 301 and passim). That is the crux of the problem.I love SUV's (talk) 17:08, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I love SUV is totally right here. there is a consistent precedent at Misplaced Pages for articles to cover significant patterns in public opinion, public debate, etc etc. this encyclopedia has many entries on popular culture such as TV series episodes, etc. (before you all jump on my statement, I'm not saying the global warming article is like a tv series article.) nothing at Misplaced Pages precludes giving coverage on a global issue like this one as it relates to trends in public opinion and debate. --Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 17:20, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Actually that's not quite my point, Sm8900. My point is that a popular reference work like Misplaced Pages should be educational without treating people like morons. Thus, instead of given long lists of things that scientists think, it should also explain carefully, with appropriate citations, why scientists think it. I don't see any harm in a section on the divergence problem that clearly explains what the problem is, and then clearly explains why most scientists don't think it's a problem. See Fermi problem. I love SUV's (talk) 17:28, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

The article is already 99 kilobytes long just going through the established science: we can't go into every idea that is wrong as well, discussing what the idea is, as well as why it's wrong. --Nigelj (talk) 17:12, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Yes but there is a lot of irrelevant material in there. The article should simply explain what the global warming hypothesis is (there is confusion in the introduction about that, too), what the scientific 'consensus' is (there is consensus about different things), and the basic reasons why scientists believe the hypothesis. These are: 1. radiative forcing 2. the feedback effect 3. the temperature record. It should record carefully any qualifications that scientists have. If you look at the literature, which I suspect you haven't, you will see that many scientists have reservations, and many express varying degrees of doubt and uncertainty. That is what a good article needs to do. I love SUV's (talk) 17:16, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Also, some of the sections aren't really science at all. The section on the environmental impact is highly speculative, so also the section on the economic impact (economists can't even forecast what will happen next year). As for the sections on 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' ... The final section on debate and scepticism has nothing to do with debate and scepticism.I love SUV's (talk) 17:21, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

See also the article Spherical Earth which I quite like. It doesn't have long lists of academies and scientists who hold the consensus belief that the earth is spherical. By contrast, it explains exactly why scientists think it is spherical. Why can't this article do the same? I love SUV's (talk) 17:34, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

No original research exists as an answer to your main argument. If you have a case for removing some of the material from the article as irrelevant to the science, then make it. --TS 17:39, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I suggest you stop telling me what literature I haven't read, and go and read the archives of this Talk page, where all this has been discussed before. Then go and look at a few other scientific articles on WP (real ones, not 6th - 3rd century BCE science) then come back and tell us how to structure a scientific article. --Nigelj (talk) 17:43, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I have looked back as far as the archive 48 and find only one fleeting reference to the divergence problem. I love SUV's (talk) 17:56, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Shifting the goalposts back again? I was answering your points about making this article more like Spherical Earth, removing all the 'irrelevant' material and 'confusion', and restructuring it to explain 'why'. You hadn't mentioned divergence for the last third of this thread. --Nigelj (talk) 18:10, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

@tony My main point, expressed above, is that instead of given long lists of things that scientists think, a good article should also explain carefully, with appropriate citations, why scientists think it. I have emphasised the bit that you may have missed. @Nigel - D'Arrigo 2008 is actually quite a recent paper. I love SUV's (talk) 17:47, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Irelevant stuff

Most of the sections at the end are nothing to do with the science of GW. Namely

• Mitigation - suggest removing most of this, particularly material like
  • "Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming, as well as community and regional actions. " This is activism, not science.
  • More activism: "Some indigenous rights organizations, such as Survival International, Amazon Watch, and Cultural Survival, have raised concerns over the fact that not only climate change affects the tribal people most of all, as some measures to mitigate the problem are equally harmful for them. Survival international came to public with the report, The most inconvenient truth of all, which documents the impact of the biofuels industry, hydro-electric power, carbon-offsetting and forest conservation schemes on indigenous communities worldwide. The organization argues that some climate change mitigation measures have led to exploitation, violation and in some cases destruction of land recognized as belonging to indigenous communities. The International Forum of Indigenous Peoples on Climate Change has expressed similar concerns. Stephen Corry, director of Survival International, explains that “projects that victimise the people and harm the environment cannot be promoted or marketed as green projects”."
• Adaptation - perhaps mention the sub-article, but again, this more science fiction than science - 'even colonization of Mars been suggested'.

I love SUV's (talk) 18:02, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

It does rather look like there are double standards being applied here, with a strict science only policy being applied just to sceptics. Martin Hogbin (talk) 18:18, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

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