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{{Double image stack|right|Greenhouse Effect.svg|Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg|200|Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m<sup>2</sup>).|Recent atmospheric ] (CO<sub>2</sub>) increases. Monthly CO<sub>2</sub> measurements display seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during the ]'s late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>.}} | {{Double image stack|right|Greenhouse Effect.svg|Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg|200|Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m<sup>2</sup>).|Recent atmospheric ] (CO<sub>2</sub>) increases. Monthly CO<sub>2</sub> measurements display seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during the ]'s late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>.}} | ||
The greenhouse effect is the process by which ] and ] of ] radiation by gases in the ] warm a ]'s lower atmosphere and surface. It was |
The greenhouse effect is the process by which ] and ] of ] radiation by gases in the ] are purported to warm a ]'s lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by ] in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by ] in 1896.<ref>{{Cite web|title=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect|work=The Discovery of Global Warming|url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm|accessdate=21 April 2009|year=2008|publisher=American Institute of Physics|first=Spencer | last=Weart | authorlink=Spencer Weart}}</ref> Some scientists dispute the existence of the greenhouse effect; for example, ], head of the space research laboratory at the ]-based ]<ref></ref><ref></ref> has stated that "ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated."<ref>[http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0</ref> The question in terms of global warming is how the strength of the presumed greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. | ||
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).<ref name="IPCC_WG1_AR4_Ch1">{{Cite web|author=IPCC|work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|title=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science|url=http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch01.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=21 April 2009|year=2007|publisher=IPCC|quote=To emit 240 W m–2, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth’s surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). Instead, the necessary −19 °C is found at an altitude about 5 km above the surface.|pages=p97 (PDF page 5 of 36)|work=IPCC WG1 AR4 Report}}</ref>{{Cref2|C}} The major greenhouse gases are ], which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; ] (CO<sub>2</sub>), which causes 9–26 percent; ] (CH<sub>4</sub>), which causes 4–9 percent; and ] (O<sub>3</sub>), which causes 3–7 percent.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring04/atmo451b/pdf/RadiationBudget.pdf|title=Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget|first=J.T. | last=Kiehl | first2=K.E. | last2=Trenberth | author2-link=Kevin Trenberth |format=PDF|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|pages=197–208|volume=78|issue=2|year=1997|accessdate=21 April 2009|doi=10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142|year=6 Apr 2005|title=Water vapour: feedback or forcing?|first=Gavin | last=Schmidt | authorlink=Gavin Schmidt |publisher=]|accessdate=21 April 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | first=Randy | last=Russell | publisher=] Windows to the Universe | url=http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/climate/greenhouse_effect_gases.html&edu=high | title=The Greenhouse Effect & Greenhouse Gases | date=May 16, 2007 | accessdate=Dec 27, 2009}}</ref> Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have ] from water vapor. | Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).<ref name="IPCC_WG1_AR4_Ch1">{{Cite web|author=IPCC|work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|title=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science|url=http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch01.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=21 April 2009|year=2007|publisher=IPCC|quote=To emit 240 W m–2, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth’s surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). Instead, the necessary −19 °C is found at an altitude about 5 km above the surface.|pages=p97 (PDF page 5 of 36)|work=IPCC WG1 AR4 Report}}</ref>{{Cref2|C}} The major greenhouse gases are ], which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; ] (CO<sub>2</sub>), which causes 9–26 percent; ] (CH<sub>4</sub>), which causes 4–9 percent; and ] (O<sub>3</sub>), which causes 3–7 percent.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring04/atmo451b/pdf/RadiationBudget.pdf|title=Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget|first=J.T. | last=Kiehl | first2=K.E. | last2=Trenberth | author2-link=Kevin Trenberth |format=PDF|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|pages=197–208|volume=78|issue=2|year=1997|accessdate=21 April 2009|doi=10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142|year=6 Apr 2005|title=Water vapour: feedback or forcing?|first=Gavin | last=Schmidt | authorlink=Gavin Schmidt |publisher=]|accessdate=21 April 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | first=Randy | last=Russell | publisher=] Windows to the Universe | url=http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/climate/greenhouse_effect_gases.html&edu=high | title=The Greenhouse Effect & Greenhouse Gases | date=May 16, 2007 | accessdate=Dec 27, 2009}}</ref> Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have ] from water vapor. |
Revision as of 00:44, 23 May 2010
For past climate change, see Paleoclimatology and Geologic temperature record.Global mean surface temperature difference relative to the 1961–1990 averageComparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of temperature variations since 1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.Mean surface temperature change for the period 2000 to 2009 relative to the average temperatures from 1951 to 1980.
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century was very likely caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation. The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanic eruptions had a small cooling effect after 1950. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.
Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies focus on the period leading up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations is uncertain.
Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, its causes and what actions to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Temperature changes
Main article: Temperature recordEvidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.
Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree. Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998. Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.
External forcings
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.
Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse effect and Radiative forcing Further information: Atmospheric CO2The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere are purported to warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. Some scientists dispute the existence of the greenhouse effect; for example, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory has stated that "ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated." The question in terms of global warming is how the strength of the presumed greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent. Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have different effects on radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly deforestation.
CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The future rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. Accordingly, the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100 (an increase by 90-250% since 1750). Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.
The destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation to global warming. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s. Ozone in the troposphere (the lowest part of the Earth's atmosphere) does contribute to surface warming.
Aerosols and soot
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present. The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced by volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. James E. Hansen and colleagues have proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases.
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.
Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.
Solar variation
Main article: Solar variationVariations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes. The consensus among climate scientists is that changes in solar forcing probably had a slight cooling effect in recent decades. This result is less certain than some others, with a few papers suggesting a warming effect.
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere. Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate. Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays. A recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.
Feedback
Main article: Climate change feedbackFeedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, a significant greenhouse gas. The main negative feedback is radiative cooling, which increases as the fourth power of temperature; the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space increases with the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere. Imperfect understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming.
Climate models
Main article: Global climate modelThe main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes. Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes. Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.
Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive feedback. Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.
Attributed and expected effects
Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warmingGlobal warming may be detected in natural, ecological or social systems as a change having statistical significance. Attribution of these changes e.g., to natural or human activities, is the next step following detection.
Natural systems
Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of these changes, e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have been described in the section on temperature changes. Rising sea levels and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with warming. Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20 century is, with high probability, atttributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.
Even with current policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are still expected to continue to grow over the coming decades. Over the course of the 21 century, increases in emissions at or above their current rate would very likely induce changes in the climate system larger than those observed in the 20 century.
In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the end of the 21 century (the year 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise. Over the course of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in sea level rise of 4–6 m or more.
Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease. The frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation will very likely increase.
Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.
Social systems
There is some evidence of regional climate change affecting systems related to human activities, including agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect some sectors and systems related to human activities. These include:
- Water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes, the dry tropics, and areas that depend on snow and ice melt
- Agriculture in low latitudes
- Low-lying coastal systems
- Human health in populations with limited capacity to adapt to climate change
It is expected that some regions will be particularly affected by climate change, including the Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian and African megadeltas. Some people, such as the poor, young children, and the elderly, are particularly at risk, even in high-income areas.
Responses to global warming
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere. Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies. Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention. The ability to adapt (called "adaptive capacity") is closely linked to social and economic development. Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.
Another policy response is engineering of the climate (geoengineering). This policy response is sometimes grouped together with mitigation. Geoengineering is largely unproven, and reliable cost estimates for it have not yet been published.
UNFCCC
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of Convention is the prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system. As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where:
- ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change;
- food production is not threatened;
- economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The UNFCCC recognizes differences among countries in their responsibility to act on climate change. In the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, most developed countries (listed in Annex I of the treaty) took on legally binding commitments to reduce their emissions. Policy measures taken in response to these commitments have reduced emissions. For many developing (non-Annex I) countries, reducing poverty is their overriding aim.
At the 15 UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties agreeing with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.
Views on global warming
Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming See also: Scientific opinion on climate change, Climate change consensus, and Climate change denialThere are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be. These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.
Politics
Developing and developed countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total emissions of a country divided by its population. Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries. This is used to make the argument that the real problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries. On the other hand, commentators from developed countries more often point out that it is total emissions that matter. In 2008, developing countries made up around half of the world's total emissions of CO2 from cement production and fossil fuel use.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed countries. Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. (under President George W. Bush) and a previous Australian Government to decide not to ratify the treaty. At the time, almost all world leaders expressed their disappointment over President Bush's decision. Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.
Public opinion
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief. In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University finds that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic"; where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates whether climate change is happening.
Other views
Most scientists accept that humans are contributing to observed climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions. There are, however, some scientists and non-scientists who question aspects of climate change science. For example, meteorologist Prof. Richard Lindzen doubts whether humans are responsible for recently observed warming.
Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls. Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions. Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or called for policies to reduce global warming.
See also
Notes
- Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% confidence interval.
- The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
- Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
- In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of greater than 90%, based on expert judgement. According to the US National Research Council Report – Understanding and Responding to Climate Change - published in 2008, " scientists agree that the warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
References
- 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record. NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day, January 22, 2010.
- ^ IPCC (2007-05-04). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved 2009-07-03.
- ^
Hegerl, Gabriele C. (2007). "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change" (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.
Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings.
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Simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism
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Archer, David (2005). "Fate of fossil fuel CO
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ignored (help); Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - Pelham, Brett (2009-04-22). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide". Gallup. Retrieved 2009-07-14.
- "Summary of Findings". Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center. 2006-07-12. Retrieved 2007-04-14.
- More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows - Health & Science - International Herald Tribune
- ^ NRC, 2008, p. 2
- Wallace, D. and J. Houghton (2005). "A guide to facts and fictions about climate change". UK Royal Society website. pp. 3–4. Retrieved 2010-05-05.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences (France), Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academy of Science of South Africa, Royal Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America) (2009). "G8+5 Academies' joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future" (PDF). US National Academies website. Retrieved 2010-05-05.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Weart, S. (2009). "The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: After 1988". American Institute of Physics website. Retrieved 2010-05-05.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - SEPP (n.d.). "Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change". Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) website. Retrieved 2010-05-05.
- Lindzen, R.S. (2005). "Memorandum by Professor Richard S Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Minutes of evidence, Tuesday, 25 January 2005. In: The Economics of Climate Change. A report by the UK Parliament House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs. Second report of the 2005-06 session". UK Parliament website. Retrieved 2010-05-05.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|day=
ignored (help); Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - Begley, Sharon (2007-08-13). "The Truth About Denial". Newsweek. Retrieved 2007-08-13.
- Adams, David (2006-09-20). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial". The Guardian. Retrieved 2007-08-09.
- "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics". MSNBC. 2007-01-12. Retrieved 2007-05-02.
- Sandell, Clayton (2007-01-03). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming". ABC. Retrieved 2007-04-27.
- "New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change" (PDF) (Press release). U.S. Global Change Research Program. June 6, 2009. Retrieved 2009-06-27.
- Reuters (May 18, 2007). "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics". USA Today. Retrieved Jan 21, 2010.
{{cite news}}
:|author=
has generic name (help) - "Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards" (Press release). Ceres. May 13, 2004. Retrieved 2010-03-04.
- IPCC (2007d). "Introduction. In (section): Synthesis Report. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))". Book version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. Retrieved 2010-04-26.
Further reading
- Association of British Insurers (2005–06). Financial Risks of Climate Change (PDF).
{{cite book}}
: Check date values in:|year=
(help) - Barnett, Tim P.; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions" (abstract). Nature. 438 (7066): 303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Behrenfeld, Michael J.; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ; Falkowski, PG; Letelier, RM (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (PDF). Nature. 444 (7120): 752–755. doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Choi, Onelack (2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S." Climate Change. 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help); Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - Dyurgerov, Mark B. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot (PDF). Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Emanuel, Kerry A. (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7051): 686–688. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help) - Hansen, James (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (PDF). Science. 308 (5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science. 299 (5610): 1214–1217. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source". BBC.
- Hoyt, Douglas V. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research. 98 (A11): 18, 895–18, 906. doi:10.1029/93JA01944.
{{cite journal}}
: Check date values in:|year=
(help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - IME. "Climate Change: Adapting to the inevitable" (PDF). IMechE. Retrieved 2009-03-07.
- Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth's Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe" (PDF). Biophysics. 46 (6).
- Kenneth, James P. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Keppler, Frank (2006-01-18). "Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants". Max Planck Society.
{{cite news}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Lean, Judith L. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate" (abstract). Geophysical Research Letters. 29 (24): 2224. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.
{{cite journal}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Lerner, K. Lee (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1414406258.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (PDF). Science. 308 (5722): 675–677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388.
- Oreskes, Naomi (2004-12-03). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). Science. 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. PMID 15576594.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help) - Purse, Bethan V.; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology. 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. PMID 15685226.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help); Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice". The New York Times.
- Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future. New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
- Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
- Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years" (PDF). Nature. 431 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Solanki, Sami K. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (PDF). Nature. 436: E4–E5. doi:10.1038/nature04046.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable". Science. 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923.
- Svensmark, Henrik (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A. 463 (2078). FirstCite Early Online Publishing: 385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help)(online version requires registration) - Walter, K. M.; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature. 443 (7107): 71–75. doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - Wang, Y.-M. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (PDF). Astrophysical Journal. 625: 522–538. doi:10.1086/429689.
{{cite journal}}
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External links
Template:Misplaced Pages-Books
Research
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — collection of IPCC reports
- Climate Change at the National Academies — repository for reports, workshops, and meetings
- Nature Reports Climate Change — free-access web resource
- Met Office: Climate change — UK National Weather Service
- Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet — extensive commented list of internet resources
- Educational Global Climate Modelling (EdGCM) — research-quality climate change simulator
- DISCOVER — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA
- Global Warming Art — collection of figures and images
Educational
- What Is Global Warming? — by National Geographic
- Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions — from NOAA
- Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions — from UCAR
- Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth — from NASA's JPL and Caltech
- OurWorld 2.0 — from the United Nations University
- Pew Center on Global Climate Change — business and politics
- Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories – Wolfram Demonstrations Project — by Harvey Lam
- Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future — graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
- The Discovery of Global Warming – A History — by Spencer R. Weart from The American Institute of Physics
- Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge — A video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland
- Climate Change Indicators in the United States Report by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp.
- Global Warming (The Warming of the Earth)—A beginner's guide to understanding the issue of global warming—by the Woods Hole Research Center
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