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Revision as of 12:24, 19 October 2010 editSyrthiss (talk \| contribs)36,785 editsm Reverted edits by Africangenesis (talk) to last version by Tony Sidaway← Previous edit		Revision as of 12:24, 19 October 2010 edit undoAfricangenesis (talk \| contribs)Extended confirmed users1,174 edits →since when is peer review pubs, cited by other literature and not contradicted in 3 years insufficient?: new sectionNext edit →
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	:: Would I be right to assume that this paper was accepted for publication too late to make the IPCC AR4 of 2007? --] 12:22, 19 October 2010 (UTC)		:: Would I be right to assume that this paper was accepted for publication too late to make the IPCC AR4 of 2007? --] 12:22, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

			== since when is peer review pubs, cited by other literature and not contradicted in 3 years insufficient? ==

			Tony, please recall our discussion at . My references meet the standards. The clique that had controlled this article drove me and many other good editors away. I read at wattsupwiththat that this problem might have been rectified. I hope you aren't continuing the problem. --] (]) 12:24, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

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Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change? A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists. See also: Scientific consensus on climate change Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place? A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)." Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans? A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics, including academically trained ones, they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it? A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated? A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations. Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"? A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂? A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles. See also: Clathrate gun hypothesis and Arctic methane release Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled? A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change. This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998? A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998. More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out; thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement? A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name." Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists? A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years? A12: Measurements show that it has not. Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

See also: Arctic sea ice decline See also: Antarctic sea ice § Recent trends and climate change Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming? A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming. The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975. (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.) The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming. Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect? A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

See also: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)? A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars. Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change. This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates. Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Misplaced Pages's own article.

See also: Climate of Mars and Extraterrestrial atmosphere Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money? A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data. Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity? A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe? A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important? A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby? A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Misplaced Pages is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Misplaced Pages is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before? A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays? A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step." Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true? A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References

^ Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
"More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
"Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
"Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.
Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
"What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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Please review—submission under models section.

This submission was objected to based on "Has <the> model *really* 'the advantage of accurately demonstrating and predicting effects of the Global Warming phenomenon' ?????" Obviously it has demonstrated the effects of "Global Warming," based on high-school thermo', both global and regional, as for predicting? perhaps this IS stating too much. owever, back in 1985, no one, for example was relating the loss of polar ice to this phenomenon, I don't think I saw anything on the relation until 1995, that was predictive for the time. Since the purpose is to understand GW globally I can soften the statement. Thanks GESICC (talk) 06:25, 3 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

All models are wrong, some models are useful. Please read...

A model for the phenomenon that yields intuitive results, and using only basic thermodynamics is to at first place the Earth and Sun in a state of thermal equilibrium. For initial understanding, no land masses are included in the model. The Earth can emit or absorb enough heat that it is warm at the equator and cool near the poles, which have ice caps. The total amount of ice remains constant, initially. The power of this model arises when we add a warming phenomenon that then sets the model out of equilibrium; burning wood, ethanol, fossil fuels†, radioactivity, more sunlight etc.. The first effect is not a dramatic increase in the Earth’s temperature (counter-intuitively), but a gradual reduction in the amount of ice near the poles. The glacial run-off, or heat absorbed by the ice melting (specific heat of ice) tends to keep the temperature of the Earth constant. Both of these phenomena have been observed: The non-drastic temperature change, contributing to controversy, is referenced throughout this article. While satellite models and geological surveys have demonstrated reduction in polar ice. The model may be improved by the addition of land masses and geographic features. For example, the nearness of the glaciers in the Pacific Northwest caused a dramatic change in its climate during the 1990’s; unusually cold winters and snow. The continued retreat of the glaciers in recent years has caused a return to its former climate, as glacier water now warms before it reaches the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Coast. Another example is provided by the expansion of deserts-directly related to more water being driven from those regions by the increased heat and approach to a new equilibrium. Note that the model predicts non-dramatic temperature change due to Arctic Ice melting, when this ice is gone, new dynamics must replace it. Though simple, this model has the advantage of accurately demonstrating and predicting effects of the Global Warming phenomenon.

†= The burning of fossil fuels is the release of yesterday’s sunshine, effectively adding more sunlight or heat to the Earth.

GESICC (talk) 06:25, 3 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

The lack of conventions in your proposal makes it really hard to read. If it's a quote within a quote, please use an apostrophe (I read it as two quotes the first time through); spelling and complete sentences also help. You're talking about why these two edits were reverted. I wasn't the one who reverted you (you should speak to Count Iblis and dave souza for their views), but I can already see several issues. For example, the explanation of thermodynamics reiterates paragraph one, this article is short on space under WP:SIZE, and defending why there needs to be a second explanation will have to be convincing. Nevertheless, if you were to submit this to a professional review, given your experience in a consulting firm, is this what a what a proposal should look like? If I were you, I would rewrite the proposal to explain what it adds to the article (putting the central points in a list helps by the way). -- CaC 155.99.230.104 (talk) 23:27, 3 October 2010 (UTC)

Your edit engages in original research. You cite a source for the amount of water used to grow things, but it does not follow from that that "irrigation of deserts for farming has increased and redistributed water vapor" - this is merely what you believe happens. You additionally assert as fact that "farming in modern countries has created dead zones in the oceans," but provide no source. Please provide sources for all of your edits. Thanks. Hipocrite (talk) 18:47, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

Revision of 18:40, 4 October 2010 Addition of desert irrigation note

Mr. Souza's objection was that it lacked a reference; provided. Water vapor is a green house gas (qv). Desert farming contributes roughly 5 gallons per ounce of product (http://www.lacfb.org/commodity.pdf). QED, right?GESICC (talk) 18:56, 4 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

Hipocrite-You're mixing things up a bit. I do not see that if you move water to places it wasn't previously you are not redistributing it, I don't see how 'belief' enters the equation, it conservation of mass. “Dead zones” is referenced as another wiki-article, with sources, Oxygen dead zones are from the Carbon Dioxide cycle. GESICC (talk) 04:15, 7 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

Further, "qed" is not acceptable on wikipedia. Cite a source that says something - your belief it is obvious is not good enough. Hipocrite (talk) 18:58, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

QED-is just an expression. How about replace it with "is that good enough?" If not, it puzzles me what would be, Palmdale water department would report it if it wasn't true--I am not trying to establish water vapor is a GH gas, already done. Establishing it as a local Green House gas is pointless, farming takes 6-9 months minimum, etc..GESICC (talk) 04:15, 7 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

Let me add on the substance that the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is not governed by evaporation alone, but by the balance of evaporation and precipitation. There is good evidence that relative humidity is fairly constant, i.e. the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is controlled nearly exclusively by the air temperature. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:02, 4 October 2010 (UTC)

True, (p/P + p/P +...) = (n/N+n/N...) RT, however, if there is water where there usually isn't the n & p of water is > 0. Piping huge amounts of a green house gas to places that do not normally have it contributes to green house effects, I can't prove this-it’s both a definition and physics. Or as above, if you want me to site a reference for that particular area, well, I can understand that, almost, that's a classical argument, do different laws of physics need to be reproved under different circumstances? Sometimes other variables are involved, after all, but in this case, it is not reasonable to assume other extenuating circumstance, inconceivably large amounts of water are being put into arid environments all over the world. Let me counter-point and ask the gedunkin question; if the equivalent number of moles of CO2 were being released instaed of H2O would you still have the objection? Thanks all, if you still think something is amiss, I'll lock it down. GESICC (talk) 04:15, 7 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

The main difference is that atmospheric water has a lifetime of days, while the CO2 cycle operates on the order of centuries to millennia. We can measure that CO2 goes up, and we can measure that, globally, relative humidity very nearly remains constant. There may well be a minor effect, but saying that this is non-negligible is in no way obvious. We do need an explicit source for such a statement - see WP:OR. (And while "dunking" and water go well together, it's a Gedankenexperiment - no worries, I have an unfair advantage there ;-) --Stephan Schulz (talk) 06:38, 7 October 2010 (UTC)

You're right, CO₂'s a LLGHG and the net change in water vapor is dependent on temperature (which is relatively constant). However, irrigation and deforestation changes the distribution of water vapor, which may lead to changes in hydrology flow patterns and cycles. I found a article in PNAS that discusses it, what do you guys think? -- CaC 155.99.230.68 (talk) 16:11, 7 October 2010 (UTC)

Stephan-I agree water has a lifetime of days-if we turned off the spigot today, the effects might be gone tomorrow, but until the spigot is turned off, there is a constant source, so half-life simply contributes to the equilibrium of the local environ. Global Humidity may be remaining constant, but we are interested in the local effects of very warm areas, (the heat, because of the humidity scale, may be depressing humidity readings-?). This is also true of CO2; life-time in the environment is not germane so long as there are sources keeping the reaction to the left. Although I can no longer find references, the oceans used to be able to suck up all the CO2 man could hope to produce, not so much anymore, which is why I added a link to Dead Zones (ecology). (It’s ironic we discuss the effect of CO2 production of fossil fuels, more than we discuss the direct contribution of heat from fossil fuels (talk about your short lifetimes, but nobody is turning off the spigot!) try digging up a credible reference for that! Enough fossil fuels get burned every day to melt 400+ cubic meters of water-from waste heat alone!)GESICC (talk) 20:38, 8 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

While relevent to our article on Climate change, land use and deforestation, I don't see how this article has much to do with Global warming. Hipocrite (talk) 16:22, 7 October 2010 (UTC)

CaC-Good bit of research, it is a short leap to evaporation from irrigation. Thanks.GESICC (talk) 20:38, 8 October 2010 (UTC)GESICC

You know GESICC, if you've got no sources, you've got nothing on the table, and we're done. I'd hate to break it to you, your ideas are great, but Misplaced Pages is a tertiary resource and under WP:OR (which is policy), you aren't going to get anywhere. --CaC 155.99.230.93 (talk) 04:32, 9 October 2010 (UTC)

Noted scientist quits association over global warming "fraud"

The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

A biographical article has now been started about this scientist and a discussion has been started at Talk:List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming. It would be inappropriate to add the names of individual dissenting scientists to this article. --TS 18:04, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

This seems relevant http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100058265/us-physics-professor-global-warming-is-the-greatest-and-most-successful-pseudoscientific-fraud-i-have-seen-in-my-long-life/ 98.118.62.140 (talk) 04:22, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

A single scientist resigns from a single society over their stance on global warming, and you think it’s relevant for this article? That would be attributing far too much weight to Mr. Lewis. About the only place Mr. Lewis’s opinions would be relevant would be List of scientists opposing the mainstream assessment of global warming. CurtisSwain (talk) 05:41, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

Coverage of the view of a single physicist in resigning from the APS is not appropriate here; it may conceivably be relevant in several articles such as that noted above or possibly American Physical Society if he was a bigwig in that organization. --TS 08:07, 11 October 2010 (UTC)

Lewis does make a very significant point in that the 'greenhouse gas' theory would require the existence of strong positive-feedback loops within the biosphere. Engineering experience (from numerous disciplines) suggests that such systems are rarely stable enough to exist for more than a short while. The notion that the earth's meteorology has existed for millions of years in the state of a positive-feedback loop is therefore improbable, and this makes the whole 'greenhouse gas' theory very suspect.

If there IS a positive-feedback mechanism at work here, it's the one by which publications stating categorically that global warming is fact rather than theory increase the rate at which such publications appear. It's just like putting a microphone in front of a loudspeaker. --Anteaus (talk) 16:34, 13 October 2010 (UTC)

As a physicist, he should know that there are a whole slew of rigorous mathematical tools that address stability in feedback systems. If he had identified a problem in this area with the current models, he would have been better off publishing a paper on it, rather than resigning and leaving others to guess what he thinks could be improved. If he publishes something significant, it may have enough effect to get mentioned here. --Nigelj (talk) 16:44, 13 October 2010 (UTC)

I can't say I agree with Anteaus's argument, as the Earth's climate has not been "stable" for millions of years.

However, if his description of his actions is accurate, his resignation from the APS is notable; but not sufficiently so for this article. I'd put it in List of scientists opposing the mainstream assessment of global warming (possibly in his own section, as that specific criticism doesn't seem to be there), in global warming skepticism, and in the APS article. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 17:11, 13 October 2010 (UTC)

According to their web site, APS membership is at an all-time high with over 47,000 members. So, one guy cancels his membership. How is that notable? If a large number of members resigned en mass as a protest, or if Lewis had held an important position in the APS that would be significant, but as far as I can tell, he's just a physicist who disagrees with APS's statement on climate change. BFD.--CurtisSwain (talk) 22:50, 13 October 2010 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

It says above

his name has been added to the article List of scientists opposing the mainstream assessment of global warming.

However, that is not true. In fact, the last edit to that page was 7 October 2010. Q Science (talk) 19:31, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

Actually, it does not say that. AR suggests that it be put there. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:40, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

I've changed the wording. A discussion has been started on the talk page. --TS 19:42, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

If that's my mistake, I apologize. I suggest he be put there, and, if sufficiently notable, in global warming skepticism and in the APS article. I don't know if he's sufficiently notable, but he probably passes WP:PROF sufficiently to have his own article . — Arthur Rubin (talk) 20:16, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

It's pretty obvious that this discussion is off topic here and it's being discussed in two much more appropriate venues, so would anybody mind if I moved this to the archive? --TS 21:55, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

Residence time of CO2?

This article repeats the idea that CO2 residence time is of the order of a hundered years or so but other papers say this not so. See this paper and the supporting cites: "Potential Dependence of Global Warming on the Residence Time (RT) in the Atmosphere of Anthropogenically Sourced Carbon Dioxide" R.H. Essenhigh* Energy Fuels, 2009, 23 (5), pp 2773–2784. The statement of residence time therefore needs correction -right? MarkC (talk) 10:16, 14 October 2010 (UTC)

No. The Essenhigh paper is badly confused, and its rendition in the blogosphere is worse. The residence time of a given CO2 molecule in the atmosphere is on the order of 4 years (since the total carbon exchange between atmosphere and other reservoirs is ~200 GT/year, and the atmosphere contains ~750GT). But that is not the same as the equilibrium time (how long after a CO2 pulse will it take to revert to normal). We have plenty of research on CO2 lifetimes. I'm sure Boris can point out about 5 publications from the top of his head, and explain this much better. But what is telling is that this paper is not published in any atmospheric science journal, but in one dedicated to fossil fuels... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 11:32, 14 October 2010 (UTC)

I'm sorry but that makes absolutely no sense. For perturbation of an equilibrium, the rate of return is the _sum_ of the forward and back rates. Since the CO2 record shows the seasonal variation the equilibrium time (1/e) cannot be ~100 years. To dismiss a paper and others it cited just because of the title of the Journal title is not scientific nor objective is it? On the other hand, an exponential never returns, so scientists don't characterize the return except in terms of the time const. or half time etc. Thus a 5 year time constant will reach 1- (1/e)^20 of its final value in one hundred years but what's the point of that figure, it's most misleading. Surely we could do with some better description of the assumptions that go into such an estimate or else say there's controversy? Cheers 125.237.187.133 (talk) 12:25, 17 October 2010 (UTC)

One paper doesn't make a controversy. I suggest that the thing to do here is to read our articles carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere and carbon cycle and recommend any changes you think should be made to those articles. If you're successful in getting consensus for changes there then it might be time to update this article, in which our coverage should essentially reflect those articles in summary form. --TS 12:30, 17 October 2010 (UTC)

Hi, it's not just one paper as the reference list in that paper makes clear. BUT even more importantly, the residence time has been measure by 14^C injection following nuclear tests and its not 100 years see: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/well-gr.html. Such direct measurement surely outweighs all modeling studies? MarkC (talk) 12:41, 17 October 2010 (UTC)

The answer is still the same. Take it to the other articles and get consensus that they're in error and need to be changed, then we can see if this one needs to be updated. --TS 12:43, 17 October 2010 (UTC)

I had a look at the pages and I could not find a reference to the 100 years... Did I miss it?

Let me try again. The atmosphere exchanges about 25% of its CO2 per year with much larger reservoirs (especially the oceans). Thus, the time a given CO2 molecule stays in the atmosphere is about 4 years. But the time for the excess CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere is much longer. It's like peeing into a pool. The pee will be diluted pretty soon, so the local concentration will sink very quickly. But the overall level of the pool will only be the same once the extra water has evaporated. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:34, 17 October 2010 (UTC)

Thank you Stephan (although you analogy is worrying ;-P), the problem is not as you suggest. The idea that atmospheric CO2 will take more than ~100 years to appreciably decline after a perturbation is clearly wrong as direct measurements show a faster equilibration (as simple math shows it must be -given the seasonal variations). Perhaps you were unaware of these data? http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/well-gr.html This shows that the time course of return to steady state is 10x faster than suggested... Therefore if CO2 production were returned toward preindustrial levels tomorrow (say) the decline in atmospheric CO2 would be as fast as this graph shows -not >100 years. It's not the total C in the system that matters but the atmospheric component -right? MarkC (talk) 09:27, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

To reiterate (I hope) the basic point, an individual carbon dioxide molecule has an expected lifetime in the atmosphere of 3-4 years; after that it's dissolved in the oceans or by plant respiration or whatever. At the same time biota, various human industrial and agricultural activities and the oceans release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. However there is a net imbalance in carbon dioxide inputs and outputs in the atmosphere, and this excess in the atmosphere eventually finds its way into the oceans. The distinction you seem to be failing to draw is that between the 3-4 year residency period and that much longer time for the excess carbon dioxide to find its way (primarily) into the oceans. The IP's basic error above seems to have been in this statement: " Since the CO2 record shows the seasonal variation the equilibrium time (1/e) cannot be ~100 years." That's nonsense. It's like saying that since I can stand at the shore and see the waves periodically advancing and receding over a scale of seconds, it's impossible that the tide could take hours to go out. --TS 11:21, 18 October 2010 (UTC)

Hi TC. Let's try to agree on something: It's not the total C in the system that matters but the atmospheric component -right? If you agree, then its not the time taken for all the C sinks to equilibrate that matter but only the atmospheric component and that, as I have shown and we seem to agree is more like 4-7 years. Thus if CO2 production were stopped tomorrow CO2 will fall with that half time, not 100 years. Do you not agree? 125.237.187.133 (talk) 09:06, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

I don't see a TC here so I'll assume you meant TS. I still don't see how you get from residence time to equilibrium. You seem to be saying they're identical. --TS 09:33, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

NASA image: The World Revs its Heat Engine

NASA's image at Flickr, which is provided with an explanatory caption, might well be edited into this text. "Recently, NASA researchers discovered that incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation increased in the tropics from the 1980s to the 1990s." The NASA image, dated 2001, might be correlated with contemporary Bush administration public observations about global warming.--Wetman (talk) 14:41, 14 October 2010 (UTC)

The objectivity and accuracy of this page needs advancement.

In reviewing this page, it is clear that only one POV is given. The only mention of serious concerns with the science of Global Warming is in a dismissive and marginalizing way. No mention of the comical errors and practices of the IPCC and it's methods is made. That needs to be presented early and honestly.

This is sad.

Is there anyone there to save Wikiperdia from the marginalization that will happen from this lack of balanced presentation?

If the goal is to be a reliable and authoritative resourse of information, than self interest, political bias, imbalanced and untrue information must be prevented or at least balanced with a complementary and thorough opposition POV.

Please begin to rebalance or clean this lop-sided article today.

If not, Misplaced Pages will not only continue to lose credibility but will become a joke to all but the most imbalanced and lop-sided researchers and a competitor will fill the gap and draw those who want truth and objectivity away.

Thanks-

SeanDeepsean666 (talk) 02:11, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

Per WP:V, we need reliable sources to include that kind of content, according to its weight. Jess_talk|_edits 02:29, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

Wentz 2007: How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?

I've removed this reference to a single paper for now. It was added today by Africangenesis. How well accepted is Wentz? Has it been replicated? Does the paper support the statement in which it is cited? --TS 12:00, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

The paper proper does mention the discrepancy, but with a few caveats. It does not mention the possible reduction in droughts. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:14, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

Well that's what I'm getting at. It sounds like a reasonable conjecture but I'd like to see if the point about the effect on drought predictions has been made by people who (unlike me) know what they're talking about.

Would I be right to assume that this paper was accepted for publication too late to make the IPCC AR4 of 2007? --TS 12:22, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

since when is peer review pubs, cited by other literature and not contradicted in 3 years insufficient?

Tony, please recall our discussion at . My references meet the standards. The clique that had controlled this article drove me and many other good editors away. I read at wattsupwiththat that this problem might have been rectified. I hope you aren't continuing the problem. --Africangenesis (talk) 12:24, 19 October 2010 (UTC)

Copious references, eg. "Patterns of glacier response to disintegration of the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula," Christina L. Hulbea, Ted A. Scambosb, Tim Youngbergc and Amie K. Lambd, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 63, Issue 1, August 2008, Pages 1-8

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