Revision as of 09:12, 22 October 2010 editWilliam M. Connolley (talk | contribs)Autopatrolled, Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers, Rollbackers66,008 edits →Misc breakage: smells← Previous edit | Revision as of 11:19, 22 October 2010 edit undoCoren (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users18,492 edits →Misc breakage: repliesNext edit → | ||
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::WMC, ''please'' don't play this game. It will not lead to a result you could qualify as positive, for anyone involved. You disagree with the ruling; that has been made abundantly clear here and everywhere else you have chosen to expound on your disapproval. Nevertheless, you need to abide by it, and such literal toeing of the line reflects poorly on yourself and will lead to escalation. — ] <sup>]</sup> 23:30, 21 October 2010 (UTC) | ::WMC, ''please'' don't play this game. It will not lead to a result you could qualify as positive, for anyone involved. You disagree with the ruling; that has been made abundantly clear here and everywhere else you have chosen to expound on your disapproval. Nevertheless, you need to abide by it, and such literal toeing of the line reflects poorly on yourself and will lead to escalation. — ] <sup>]</sup> 23:30, 21 October 2010 (UTC) | ||
::: I don't know why you're paying any attention to JAJ. If people don't want to read this page, they don't have to. And, as SA points out, the precedent is in the other direction: this is entirely permissible. Are you really so frightened? ] (]) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC) | ::: I don't know why you're paying any attention to JAJ. If people don't want to read this page, they don't have to. And, as SA points out, the precedent is in the other direction: this is entirely permissible. Are you really so frightened? ] (]) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC) | ||
::::Because you are a valuable contributor, even if you did get too personally involved in a conflict. Right now, you're doing you damned best to burn bridges and that is something ''you'' are most likely to regret in the end. — ] <sup>]</sup> 11:19, 22 October 2010 (UTC) | |||
::More constructively, why not give a hand in and around ]? The whole mess of set theory articles on Misplaced Pages is poorly sourced and opaque to all but someone with a strong maths background. You certainly have both experience and talent at writing that would be put to good use over there — and allow you to disengage from the climate mess. — ] <sup>]</sup> 23:41, 21 October 2010 (UTC) | ::More constructively, why not give a hand in and around ]? The whole mess of set theory articles on Misplaced Pages is poorly sourced and opaque to all but someone with a strong maths background. You certainly have both experience and talent at writing that would be put to good use over there — and allow you to disengage from the climate mess. — ] <sup>]</sup> 23:41, 21 October 2010 (UTC) | ||
::: Maybe. But if you want that as a favour, you need to be rather less heavy about other matters ] (]) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC) | ::: Maybe. But if you want that as a favour, you need to be rather less heavy about other matters ] (]) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC) | ||
::::I wish you could take a step back and realize that if favor this is, it would be entirely to ''your'' benefit. You're no longer a scientist when you write about CC on Misplaced Pages, Dr. Connolley, you are a ''participant''. That's as unhealthy for you as it is disruptive to Misplaced Pages; and we are hoping a brief vacation ''entirely'' away from the topic will allow you to disengage enough to help return with objectivity. Your idea of ] that does not share your watchlist was excellent — avail yourself of it. — ] <sup>]</sup> 11:19, 22 October 2010 (UTC) |
Revision as of 11:19, 22 October 2010
To speak to another with consideration, to appear before him with decency and humility, is to honour him; as signs of fear to offend. To speak to him rashly, to do anything before him obscenely, slovenly, impudently is to dishonour. Leviathan, X. User:William M. Connolley/For me/The naming of cats Googlebombing: Coton school UK
I "archive" (i.e. delete old stuff) quite aggressively (it makes up for my untidiness in real life). If you need to pull something back from the history, please do. Once. My Contribs • Blocks • Protects • Deletions • Block log • Count watchers • Edit count • WikiBlame I'm Number 11 |
The Holding Pen
Ocean acidification
On hold |
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A reader writes:
I'm not sure, but it sounds odd. You can beat me to it if you like William M. Connolley (talk) 18:09, 3 May 2009 (UTC)
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Your ArbCom userpage comment
Need to finish this off |
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The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |
I haven't looked to see which arb was accused of being a "fool," but am curious how would "Stephen Bain should not be entrusted with anything more valuable than a ball of string" would be received. I'd like to know before I say that. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:34, 12 September 2009 (UTC) |
Misplaced Pages:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Abd-William M. Connolley
Ditto |
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The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |
This arbitration case has been closed, and the final decision is available in full at the link above. As a result of this case:
On behalf of the Arbitration Committee, Hersfold 22:58, 13 September 2009 (UTC) I'm am sorry to see that your adminship has been revoked. I believe that our circumstances are similar in a way. I too was once an admin and lost my tools mainly due to conflicts on articles related to the events surrounding the 9/11 attacks. I know that the vast majority of my content creation and all my FA's were done after I was desysopped...with that said I am hoping that we can still look forward to your wisdom and guidance in those areas you have so instrumental in and that you will continue to help us build as reliable a reference base as we can achieve. Best wishes to you!--MONGO 03:24, 14 September 2009 (UTC)
I ask that you please accept my nomination to regain your administrative rights at RFA. 99.191.73.2 (talk) 13:23, 14 September 2009 (UTC)
InterestingHardly surprising that arbcom wants to keep their mess as far from view as possible. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk)
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Current
Thermal underwear
Idealized greenhouse model, or the section below |
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May I ask a question? I stress that I am not trying to do any original research, but only want to improve the GW article by explaining what is fundamental to the AGW hypothesis. I don't think the current article really explains it very well. My question: I did some Googling and the Stefan-Boltzmann equation (or rather a derivative of it) seems to be fundamental. But there are two versions of it, as follows:
where alpha is albedo, S0 is a constant solar radiative flux (units W/m^2), T is temp in K, and sigma is a constant. The two sides of the equation both have units W/m^2. In the first equation e is 'emissivity' which is unitless and is the ratio of energy radiated by a particular material to energy radiated by a black body at the same temperature. I think of it as an 'underpants factor'. You have a black body throbbing with radiation, which will cool unless you keep it warm. So you put some underpants on it, to keep the cold out, i.e. stop it radiating so much. Hence CO2 and water vapour are like thermal underwear to keep the earth warm (if e is 100%, the temperature is about -18 deg C, for if you solve for e with current temperature, assume 15 deg C, you find e is about 60%). I am assuming e is constant whatever the temperature for exactly the same material, is that correct? In reality e will change as the material of the atmosphere changes (more CO2, or more vapour). In the second equation G is a number, units also W/m^2, which is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system. If you solve for G for 15 deg C, you get about 150 W/m^2. My puzzle is whether G is also constant, if for other reasons (e.g. change in solar radiation, change in albedo) the temperature changes. Intuitively it won't be constant. Why represent it this way? Apologise if I have misunderstood, and please correct any mistakes (I am quite new to this, but it is interesting). Again, I am not trying to do any research, just finding out some facts that could be put into layman's language and hopefully into the article. I think thermal underwear is a better analogy than greenhouses, e.g. HistorianofScience (talk) 11:52, 10 January 2010 (UTC)
Fine. Writing it all out is quicker than finding it, so... simplifying, the sun shines 4S units on the uniform earth (and since the area of a circle is 1/4 the area of a corresponding sphere the 4 drops out), which is a black body (forget albedo for the moment, it makes no real difference). The atmosphere is transparent to SW, and can be considered as a single layer not in conductive contact with the surface. There is no diurnal cycle, all is averaged out, all is in equilibrium. So at the sfc (with atmosphere) we have the following equation:
(the surface is black, captures all solar SW and transforms it into LW which it re-radiates) and G is the radiation from the atmosphere. Meanwhile, in the atmosphere,
(the atmospheric layer is totally opaque to the surface LW, is itself isothermal, and being a layer radiates both up and downwards). As it happens G = r(T_a)^4 but we don't care about that for tihs analysis. Hence, S + G = 2G, hence S = G, hence T_1 = (2S/r)^0.25. Meanwhile, in the absence of the atmosphere, we clearly would have T_2 = (S/r)^0.25. T_1 > T_2 (by a factor of 2^0.25) and (T_1 - T_2) is the greenhouse effect. William M. Connolley (talk) 21:02, 10 January 2010 (UTC) Also, this and the linked also refers, but is harder William M. Connolley (talk) 21:12, 10 January 2010 (UTC)
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Blast from the past
Not to creep you out, but I was looking through old RfAs and I found this, from your second, and succesful, RfA. To the question of: How do you see Misplaced Pages in 2010 ?
OK, for what its worth, here is the rest: I see wikipedia continuing its growth and influence. The problems of scaling will continue: how to smoothly adapt current practices to a larger community. At the moment this appears to be working mostly OK. Problems exist with the gap between arbcomm level and admin level: I expect this to have to be bridged/changed someway well before 2010. I very much hope more experts - from my area of interests, particularly scientists - will contribute: at the moment all too few do. To make this work, we will have to find some way to welcome and encourage them and their contributions without damaging the wiki ethos. This isn't working terribly well at the moment. I predict that wiki will still be a benevolent dictatorship in 2010 - the problems of transition to full user sovereignty are not worth solving at this stage. William M. Connolley 20:36, 8 January 2006 (UTC).
Thought you'd be amused. Shadowjams (talk) 07:02, 12 January 2010 (UTC)
- Hmm yes. "Prediction is hard, especially of the future" as they say William M. Connolley (talk) 08:25, 12 January 2010 (UTC)
- Ha. So they say. I'm really good at the past prediction part though. Shadowjams (talk) 08:49, 12 January 2010 (UTC)
More thermals
All at Idealized greenhouse model it seems |
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Thanks for your explanation which I am afraid I still don't really follow. I don't see how 'the earth heats the atmosphere' and 'the atmosphere heats the earth' can both be true.
| G ^ V Solar input. (4S ->) S | ---------------------------- Atmosphere. Emits G, up and down, thermal radiation. Absorbs S+G. ---------------------------- | | | V Solar straight through - atmos transparent, still S G V ^ S+G | ----------------------------- Sfc. Abs S(SW)+G(LW). Thus emits (S+G)(LW). Thus S+G = rT^4 Clear now? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:13, 12 January 2010 (UTC) Sorry, apart from the bit about not reflecting LW (that seemed picky, unless I misunderstood it), which of my claims was wrong? I said that the net outflow from earth to atmosphere has to be upwards. And that this outflow has to be exactly equal to the outflow from the atmosphere into space. Your diagram is incomprehensible. And what about Greenhouse effect where it says "Radiation is emitted both upward, with part escaping to space, and downward toward Earth's surface, making our life on earth possible." This is entirely wrong isn't it? It gives the impression that we are safe because only part of the radiation escapes to space, but the rest is trapped behind & keeps us snug and warm. The reality is that the net outflow from the earth has to be exactly balanced by the outflow at the edge of the atmosphere into space. Otherwise the atmosphere would keep on heating up until equilibrium was restored. HistorianofScience (talk) 20:31, 12 January 2010 (UTC) The unclearness of the diagram is the omission of the causality. You have the atmosphere radiating G downwards, e.g. Yes but where does the G come from? If we were to start with turning on the sun like a switch, at that instant there would be no G from the atmosphere. In which case the first thing to hit the earth would be S. Then earth would emit (not reflect) S. With no G. HistorianofScience (talk) 20:43, 12 January 2010 (UTC)
| 0 ^ V Solar input. (4S ->) S | ---------------------------- Atmosphere. At 0K. Doesn't radiate. ---------------------------- | | | V Solar straight through - atmos transparent, still S 0 V ^ 0 | ----------------------------- Sfc. Abs S(SW)+0(LW). At 0K. Doesn't radiate.
| 0 ^ V Solar input. (4S ->) S | ---------------------------- Atmosphere. At 0K. Doesn't radiate. ---------------------------- | | | V Solar straight through - atmos transparent, still S 0 V ^ G_T | ----------------------------- Sfc. Abs S(SW)+0(LW). Has warmed up somewhat, to T. Emits rT^4, call this G_T. So now the sfc has warmed up somewhat, so it is emitting G_T in the LW. Now the atmosphere isn't in balance: it is absorbing G_T but emitting nothing, since it is at 0K. So it will warm up. So it will start emitting downwards an warm further. And eventually we end up with the equilibrium solution William M. Connolley (talk) 21:47, 12 January 2010 (UTC) |
Service award update
Hello, William M. Connolley! The requirements for the service awards have been updated, and you may no longer be eligible for the award you currently display. Don't worry! Since you have already earned your award, you are free to keep displaying it. However, you may also wish to update to the current system.
Sorry for any inconvenience. — the Man in Question (in question) 10:21, 14 January 2010 (UTC) |
Argh, I hate it when these things change :-( Oh well, I'll see if the new one looks any prettier than the old :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 12:59, 14 January 2010 (UTC)
Dynamic topography
To William and his talk page stalkers:
Would you (ambiguously singular or plural) like to expand the portion of "Dynamic topography" that is about the oceans?
I am planning on doing some expansion of the solid-Earth-geophysics portion of that article (which currently covers both the dynamically-supported ocean elevations and topography due to motion of material in the mantle), but I think it would be a disservice to continue to ignore the ocean part. Ideally, we would have two separate standalone articles.
Awickert (talk) 17:26, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
- Good point. How analogous are they? I never got through reading Gill, so maybe now is my chance :-) William M. Connolley (talk) 18:29, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
- Well, I don't know anything about it in the oceans; in the Earth it is due to motion in the mantle that creates normal tractions on interfaces such as the surface, the upper/lower mantle discontinuity, the core-mantle boundary, etc. Since it is supposed to be about the motion of seawater, I can imagine how the physics could be identical, but I can't say for sure and about to head out the door: off to see a friend perform in Guettarda's favorite musical, Awickert (talk) 18:51, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
- Careful. That is pretty clear evidence of a Cabal, or possibly a Cadre William M. Connolley (talk) 19:22, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
- Cadre, I think. In our obligatory red shirts. Guettarda (talk) 21:38, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
- I'm thinking about "Gang of N." It has a nice math/science ring to it, and evokes the Gang of Four. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:25, 9 May 2010 (UTC)
- While "Gang of N" has a certain ring to it (the definitions are so amorphous, no one can agree how many there are), I think "Gang of i" might be more appropriate. Guettarda (talk) 03:43, 9 May 2010 (UTC)
- I'm thinking about "Gang of N." It has a nice math/science ring to it, and evokes the Gang of Four. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:25, 9 May 2010 (UTC)
- I was totally baffled by "Guettarda's favourite musical"...until I remembered that conversation. It was especially puzzling since I've never seen it, have no idea what it's actually about, and don't even know what comes after the second "Oklahoma!" Guettarda (talk) 21:37, 8 May 2010 (UTC)
- It's a good one - you should see it. Back to the topic: if it turns out that the underlying physics are the same, but just expressed in different media, I bet we could leave it at one article. If they are fundamentally different, then let's split. Awickert (talk) 01:21, 9 May 2010 (UTC)
PD initial thoughts
Misplaced Pages:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Climate change/Proposed decision looks about as stupid as I'd expected, though not as stupid as some others expected. The failure of any meaningful remedies for admin involvement, which wrecked the CC probation, is a flaw. But to be fair, the PD is capable of becoming moderately sensible with the correct votes. The real test is who votes for that William M. Connolley (talk) 11:15, 23 August 2010 (UTC)
Thunks |
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The PD is exactly as many of the Cabal members expected -- it's well known that Risker and Rlevse despise you, and the long delay was because they had to win over Brad to get sufficiently humiliating sanctions. As I have pointed out elsewhere, the arbs pay little or no attention to the Evidence/Workshop pages and base their decisions on broad impressions of who the good guys and bad guys are. (It has to be said that your recent actions gave R/R ammunition.) I think Risker's tactic here has been to set the Overton window at her desired boundary; the final decision may not be as extreme. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 13:26, 23 August 2010 (UTC)
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Wikipedia_talk:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Climate_change/Proposed_decision#Statement_by_WMC, in case you missed it William M. Connolley (talk) 22:43, 26 August 2010 (UTC)
PD continuing thoughts
Rlevse has gorn . That's interesting. There is no hint of why, though. Can't say I'm sorry but it would be interesting to know why. R has done some really wacky things with the PD William M. Connolley (talk) 15:40, 5 September 2010 (UTC)
- Naughty boy, you ignored Boris' warning to keep a low profile and not to challenge the faulty system too much, yet again. But like last time, your opponents exploited your actions a bit too vigorously, causing their efforts to backfire on them. Count Iblis (talk) 17:13, 5 September 2010 (UTC)
- Arbcom is coming down heavily in favor of Lar and his faction, going so far as to rewrite the definition of "uninvolved" so as to specifically exclude Lar. WP:ADMIN sez "Involvement is generally construed very broadly by the community, to include current or past conflicts with an editor (or editors) and disputes on topics, regardless of the nature, age, or outcome of the dispute." Notice how Arbcom has refudiated the "current or past conflicts with an editor (or editors)" bit and focused solely on content? It's hard to escape the conclusion that Arbcom knew what they wanted to decide long ago, and are assembling the evidence and rewriting policy to fit their preferred outcome. So at the end of the day it wouldn't have mattered if WMC had behaved himself. They were going to nail him no matter what. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 17:20, 5 September 2010 (UTC)
- I'm surprised to hear you say that. I don't see that supported by the current round of votes, though who knows what the future will bring William M. Connolley (talk) 18:53, 5 September 2010 (UTC)
FoF thoughts
It all came true for GJP, M4th, ZP5, JWB. But still arbcomm fail to see the obvious |
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I'm minded to put forward a couple of extra FoF's:
Other obvious ones are ATren and Cla. Thoughts? William M. Connolley (talk) 18:46, 5 September 2010 (UTC)
Cla68 insight? Actually, the whole WR thread is interesting and indicative that there is some synergistic sharing between Lar, Cla68, and Moulton. ScienceApologist (talk) 22:07, 11 September 2010 (UTC) |
GCM Gridding
Hi William. I was just reading the general circulation model article, and was curious if you (or your talk page stalkers) had some insight about this sentence: "Spectral models generally use a gaussian grid, because of the mathematics of transformation between spectral and grid-point space." This seems wrong to me. I had always thought that spectral climate models did not use any grid, but that all of their calculations were done in the frequency domain. Of course, it is mathematically not quite so hard to output spherical harmonics to lat/long, but I think that the sentence implies the wrong thing and thereby overlooks the advantage of working in harmonics. Or, of course, I could be wrong, I mean, I do spend a lot of time looking at rocks and dirt... Awickert (talk) 06:17, 9 September 2010 (UTC)
- Spectral models do need a grid. One reason is easy: not everything can be done in spectral space. Convective precipitation is one obvious one. Indeed anything that isn't the dynamics: the air-sea interaction, the vegetation. All of those need to be represented in grid-point space. The one that is trickier is (stretching my memory) the calculation of some of the higher-order dynamics terms, which I think need some grid representation William M. Connolley (talk) 07:32, 9 September 2010 (UTC)
- OK - thanks for the explanation! I suppose the resolution is low enough in geophysics that global modelers will very often do all of the calcs and data in spherical harmonics. Those poor, poor climate modelers... too much data, like too much ice cream, can lead to protracted pain. Awickert (talk) 07:40, 9 September 2010 (UTC)
- Actually there's a gradual movement away from spectral methods, something that I am very glad to see. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 13:30, 9 September 2010 (UTC)
- I've heard some very good things about the newer geodesic-type grids! I feel fortunate for geologists because the lithosphere acts as an elastic sheet, and harmonic functions are part of its solution: in other words, spectral methods line up with the actual physics of what is going on, making the solutions much less difficult and time-intensive. Plus, the strength of the lithosphere also acts as a filter to smear out high-frequency loading signals, meaning that you capture everything by solving up to degree 256 or 512. Thank you, Earth! Awickert (talk) 16:11, 9 September 2010 (UTC)
It is a good article
The one you co-wrote in BAMS, that is. I think that article could help the climate-change debate, and it should be more widely known. -- JohnWBarber (talk) 21:49, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
- Ditto. (Re the global cooling myth). BTW, I relied on that article to re-write the answer for Q4 at Talk:Scientific opinion on climate change/FAQ. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:57, 19 September 2010 (UTC)
Message to WMC TPSers
Precipitation (meteorology) need love badly. Spot the errrors and win valuable prizes! Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:40, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
- I've hacked this around extensively, but it needs more. One of the bigger problems is gross article bloat due to repetition of stuff that belongs in sub-pages. All may contribute to solving that William M. Connolley (talk) 10:57, 26 September 2010 (UTC)
Exoplanets and the Intermediate General Circulation Model
Steven Vogt talks about a scientist who modeled the atmospheric circulation of a tidally locked exoplanet like Gliese 581 g in its habitable zone. I'm not sure which paper Vogt is referring to here. Would you be able to add a discussion about this to the Gliese 581 g article? No hurry on this. It's in the video if you get a chance to watch it (Event begins sometime around 29:27). Viriditas (talk) 13:07, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
- They have really irritating video... can't they just put it on youtube :-( William M. Connolley (talk) 13:44, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
- Interesting how I asked you this question right as it became an issue. An editor just added that the tidally locked sides would be "blazing hot in the light side to freezing cold in the dark side", however I removed this because Vogt seems to refer to the climate models several times that contradict this statement. Viriditas (talk) 13:47, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
- And now, I've restored it after finding the source. Viriditas (talk) 14:01, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
- Interesting how I asked you this question right as it became an issue. An editor just added that the tidally locked sides would be "blazing hot in the light side to freezing cold in the dark side", however I removed this because Vogt seems to refer to the climate models several times that contradict this statement. Viriditas (talk) 13:47, 30 September 2010 (UTC)
I've evaded the issue for the moment but put a comment about something else on the talk page. Thanks. Meanwhile, if you look at the PR puff
- I finally found the guy and his work. His name is James Kasting. Have you heard of him?Viriditas (talk) 22:16, 2 October 2010 (UTC)
- Nope. But I have found and now read Joshi et al. 1997 which looks to be the main source for the atmospheres stuff. Its quite interesting. I'll
summarise it here, prior to dumping it somewhere:put it in User:William M. Connolley/Atmospheric general circulation on tidally locked planets <snipped to sub page>
- Nope. But I have found and now read Joshi et al. 1997 which looks to be the main source for the atmospheres stuff. Its quite interesting. I'll
William M. Connolley (talk) 22:55, 2 October 2010 (UTC)
- Interesting. But isn't deposition of CO2 exothermic and thus would release heat into the atmosphere on the cold side so it would get warmer? — Coren 16:14, 3 October 2010 (UTC)
- Nevermind, obviously the GHE would be reduced by the loss and that would overwhelm the small amount of heat gained from deposition. — Coren 16:16, 3 October 2010 (UTC)
- Yes, the heat released is small, and is soon lost. Its vaguely similar to the way that waste heat from fossil fuel combustion is far less important than the CO2 released William M. Connolley (talk) 14:46, 4 October 2010 (UTC)
- Nevermind, obviously the GHE would be reduced by the loss and that would overwhelm the small amount of heat gained from deposition. — Coren 16:16, 3 October 2010 (UTC)
Gurk: I've just noticed that Vogt et al. say M stars emit a large amount of their radiation in the infrared. As a result, since the greenhouse effect works by absorbing infrared radiation, the surface temperatures would be higher than predicted by such simple calculations. This is very badly broken. Oops William M. Connolley (talk) 17:42, 4 October 2010 (UTC)
In memoriam
Another valuable editor gone User:ChrisO while the trolls remain William M. Connolley (talk) 19:11, 30 August 2010 (UTC)
And another: User:Polargeo: William M. Connolley (talk) 14:56, 1 October 2010 (UTC)
Misplaced Pages:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Climate change
This arbitration case has been closed and the final decision is available at the link above. The following is a summary of the remedies enacted:
Stupidity collapsed, though it is still there, alas |
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On behalf of the Arbitration Committee,
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Final decision: thoughts
Of the decision:
- the "scorched earth" idea is unthinking and stupid.
- arbcomm demonstrate again an inability to distinguish the valuable from the valueless; indeed, they appear to be too lazy to even try.
- in pursuit of their atque ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant they have failed to notice that peace has already broken out. For two reasons: the worst of the "skeptics" (MN, M4th, Cla, ATren, TGL) are all gone; and the external forcing (Climatic Research Unit email controversy) has been resolved in favour of Climate Science. So all the disruption was for nothing.
About the only good thing about the PD is that it is so obviously bad, it is likely to rebound more to the discredit of arbcomm than anyone else.
Of the process:
- more of it should be open. There were very clearly extensive periods when off-wiki emails between the arbs were the main means of discussion. Some of that must be tolerable, but not to the extent that it is done. The arbs have become as addicted to secrecy as the Civil Service, and it is not good: both because of the dark deeds done in darkness (one example: the unexplained but welcome booting out of Rlevse) and because lack of on-wiki information fostered unease amongst the participants.
- the arbs need to be more involved, and to manage the process. Some are lazy, but none are good. This isn't acceptable. It has become near-expected practice in arbcomm cases for nothing but a few gnomic utterances from arbs during the case. The sheer volume of evidence and discussion produced by petty back-and-forth needs to be rigourously policed. Arbcomm as a whole is fairly lazy, in that they don't really evaluate the actual abckground to a case - that would be too much trouble, and they never bother. Instead, they rely on behaviour *during* a case, and part of their technique is a deliberate fostering of the possibility for disorder, in order to give them a lazy way of deciding. In this case, arbcomm gave a clear signal right at the start that evidence limits could be ignored. It was downhill from there.
Of the arbs:
- none of them emerge with any credit.
William M. Connolley (talk) 08:47, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- Did you notice the Hipocrite slapped a retired template up? Even though he said it wasn't due to the case, I think it was for the most part. I find it sad that a lot of long term editors just gave up after this case. Do you think Verbal will be back? I didn't think we lose so many long term editors like this. I am actually surprised in one way but in the other way I guess it's to be expected. :( --CrohnieGal 18:49, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- A discussion is now underway somewhere as to whether it's kosher to have a section such as the one below, discussing scholarly articles proposed by the Banned. It's so utterly bizarre, but to someone familiar with Misplaced Pages it would seem routine. Of course, to one of the most active (and unsanctioned) CC editors, my very act of posting on this page would be considered... I forget the words he used. Fraternizing with the unclean? ScottyBerg (talk) 19:05, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- Could not see the discussion anywhere. FWIW I think any conversation which people bring here ought to be ok, as long as it stays here and does not get directly cited as part of an argument anywhere else. Ought, because I haven't got time to read the exact ruling but practically speaking it is much better for everyone if any such conversations stay here and visible rather than disappear on to email. Isn't there something about a prophet living in a tree whom people travelled to consult which even fits with one of the pictures....--BozMo talk 20:53, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- It's at http://en.wikipedia.org/Wikipedia_talk:Arbitration_Committee/Noticeboard#What_does_topic_banned_mean.3F ScottyBerg (talk) 20:54, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- Some valid concerns are being raised in that discussion, but valid only in the Misplaced Pages sense. Outside of Misplaced Pages, I'd think that trying to prevent scientists from listing sources would be viewed with amazement. ScottyBerg (talk) 20:57, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- Could not see the discussion anywhere. FWIW I think any conversation which people bring here ought to be ok, as long as it stays here and does not get directly cited as part of an argument anywhere else. Ought, because I haven't got time to read the exact ruling but practically speaking it is much better for everyone if any such conversations stay here and visible rather than disappear on to email. Isn't there something about a prophet living in a tree whom people travelled to consult which even fits with one of the pictures....--BozMo talk 20:53, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- I agree with most everything you said in your analysis apart from the juicy gossip that I cannot directly verify. One comment, though: it's been perennially easy to be hard on arbcom; in fact, it won't take too much digging in my history to see my take on them. It seems to me now that they're basically doing exactly what the committee was designed to do when it was first set-up. Misplaced Pages and arbcom are both intentionally dysfunctional because the only way the content could have been created and given its high Google-ranks in the first place was to open it to the peanut-gallery that is the internet. What we have entrenched now is a culture that values inane process over efficiency, brute force over nuance, and immature niceties over intellectual heft. Sounds like any other internet microcosm to me. ScienceApologist (talk) 19:41, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- It's unquestionable that the process was far more opaque than it should have been, and took too long. I think that everyone involved except the arbs would agree with that. Email deliberations have their place, but there was far too little communication with the parties. ScottyBerg (talk) 20:45, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- It's been that way in every arbitration case since 2005 as far as I can tell. Additionally, with every arbcom election, there are candidates who get elected who promise to change the system, and they all end up either resigning or changing their minds. The opacity was intentional and has always been a part of Misplaced Pages as far as I can tell. Obviously, there are scenarios where private communications are needed, but for whatever reason arbcom tends to function primarily on this level to their own detriment.
- I think the model of the US Supreme Court is much better. Let disputants make statements and enter evidence. Then let arbcom ask questions. Then shut everything down. Arbcom comes back with a singular ruling and opposing minority opinions with signatures.
- ScienceApologist (talk) 21:43, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- That, actually, would be my favored model because it would tend to promote coherent decisions and better expressed dissent. Odds of being able to reform ArbCom to work this way: internal (ArbCom) support: 25%, external (community) support: 0.01%. If lucky. — Coren 00:27, 16 October 2010 (UTC)
- That seems like it might work, actually. Anybody know what the procedure is to have it implemented? Maybe an RFC to gauge support,. and the closing consensus is the community's recommendation to the Committee? The Wordsmith 03:16, 16 October 2010 (UTC)
- ArbCom does not answer to the community, only to Jimbo. So, one has to ask Jimbo if he would be willing to consider community proposals to reform the ArbCom system. Count Iblis (talk) 14:44, 16 October 2010 (UTC)
- It's unquestionable that the process was far more opaque than it should have been, and took too long. I think that everyone involved except the arbs would agree with that. Email deliberations have their place, but there was far too little communication with the parties. ScottyBerg (talk) 20:45, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- A discussion is now underway somewhere as to whether it's kosher to have a section such as the one below, discussing scholarly articles proposed by the Banned. It's so utterly bizarre, but to someone familiar with Misplaced Pages it would seem routine. Of course, to one of the most active (and unsanctioned) CC editors, my very act of posting on this page would be considered... I forget the words he used. Fraternizing with the unclean? ScottyBerg (talk) 19:05, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
I agree that having arbcomm ask questions would be the correct way to work. I disagree that people would disagree. Furthermore, I don't think arbcomm's way of working is anywhere set in stone - it is just How They Do Stuff. The could do it differently for the next case, if they chose to. Coren blaming-the-community-in-advance for arbcomm's failure to reform itself is a Poor Show William M. Connolley (talk) 22:24, 16 October 2010 (UTC)
Ref
Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature, Lacis et al., 15 OCTOBER 2010, VOL 330, Science William M. Connolley (talk) 21:10, 14 October 2010 (UTC)
- Interesting read. It almost sounds like a review article rather than a research one, though I notice that it is classified as a "report". I'm not too clear on the difference between the two. Could you please enlighten me? NW (Talk) 22:29, 14 October 2010 (UTC)
- It is sort-of a review; perhaps more a re-publication in a higher-impact journal of a condensed version of the J Clim 2006 paper and an in-press JGR thing . I don't really know how Science categorises its various sections. Note the swipes at Lindzens back-of-the-envelope calcs. The article, as it says, is mostly there to address the common misunderstanding that we can ignore CO2 because WV is dominant; this has been a "skeptic" talking point forever William M. Connolley (talk) 23:27, 14 October 2010 (UTC)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704361504575551961821166950.html?mod=googlenews_wsj needs to go in somewhere, too William M. Connolley (talk) 23:37, 14 October 2010 (UTC)
While we are on the subject of journal articles, I was hoping to get your thoughts on Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1073/pnas.1004581107, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1073/pnas.1004581107
instead.. I know that it wasn't really your field, but does that sound plausible to you? I had somewhat of a hard time accepting all of its conclusions. NW (Talk) 14:58, 15 October 2010 (UTC)
- Sorry, its been a busy day. And so I still haven't finished that article. Temporising reply: I've always tended to skip over such articles, because predicting future GHG emissions and levels is so hard that I think about the best you can do is assume ~1%/y increase as a rough fit to historical levels, and then be aware that this is probably a bit too high William M. Connolley (talk) 22:17, 16 October 2010 (UTC)
- Finally had a chance to read it. It is one of those things that my eyes kept glazing and I found it hard to keep skipping over the paragraphs. I'm not sure I saw much to disagree with in their conclusions, other than that there is any great point doing this stuff. Urbanisation, aging, population are all going to affect future emissions. As are technological change and fuel availability and govt policy and public perceptions. Modelling this stuff is an academic exercise but (in my view) of very little direct policy use; the uncertainties are too large. It is useful to model just to see how things can change; but not to take the answers too seriously William M. Connolley (talk) 08:46, 20 October 2010 (UTC)
Issues...few seem to understand
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More obsessive secrecy from arbcomm
William M. Connolley (talk) 16:04, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Given the limited amount of checkusers, it's fairly easy to check their block logs. No other checkuser has blocked any accounts as PG socks. (Unless they suppressed the block...) There was 1 rangeblock Special:Contributions/194.66.0.0/24. -Atmoz (talk) 17:45, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Err, maybe, but that wasn't the question, was it? I'm a bit baffled - what did I say that you interpreted as that being the answer to?
- Also, that range is BAS. Possibly all of it. This stinks of paranoia William M. Connolley (talk) 18:01, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Um... something, somewhere, I think? I guess it wasn't you. Oh well, my mistake. But if anyone does/did ask, there's the answer. Happy another orange bar. (Yes, blocking all of BAS was probably overkill. Most of the edits on that range were either a long time ago, or unrelated.) -Atmoz (talk) 18:10, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- OK, thats all right then. At least I know about the range block. It probably has edits by me in it - I guess I must be a PG sock too William M. Connolley (talk) 18:12, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- I think this is only the logical continuation of a failed policy - why waste time driving off expert editors one by one if you can block them wholesale? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:24, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Careful, you're a good boy, remember? William M. Connolley (talk) 18:37, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Didn't anybody get the bulletin? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:55, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Missed it. Oops, looks like you were a bit too Sekret. Scarlet letter stuff I suppose William M. Connolley (talk) 19:09, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Didn't anybody get the bulletin? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:55, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Careful, you're a good boy, remember? William M. Connolley (talk) 18:37, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- I think this is only the logical continuation of a failed policy - why waste time driving off expert editors one by one if you can block them wholesale? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:24, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- OK, thats all right then. At least I know about the range block. It probably has edits by me in it - I guess I must be a PG sock too William M. Connolley (talk) 18:12, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- Um... something, somewhere, I think? I guess it wasn't you. Oh well, my mistake. But if anyone does/did ask, there's the answer. Happy another orange bar. (Yes, blocking all of BAS was probably overkill. Most of the edits on that range were either a long time ago, or unrelated.) -Atmoz (talk) 18:10, 18 October 2010 (UTC)
- That is I suppose the kind of editors them want here. 80.186.105.107 (talk) 04:14, 19 October 2010 (UTC) formerly known as Dreg743
Climate change again
I've filed a case at WP:AE asking if something can be done about you, ATren and Lar (but mainly you and Lar) sniping at one another over climate change. It's been a week now and I think we all need to move on. Tasty monster (=TS ) 16:10, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- You have misread the diffs. And I'm very disappointed in you. Lar calls me a prat; I ask him to retract; you then tell me The cited link above shows William M. Connolley extending a needling match. Come on Tony, you can do better than this William M. Connolley (talk) 18:28, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- I've moved it to Misplaced Pages:Administrators'_noticeboard#Topic_banned_editors_needling_one_another for general discussion. --TS 20:20, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- Sigh. This isn't getting any better. Lar insults me; you care nothing about that, but instead attack me. To be fair, Connolley is also looking for a fight. No, that isn't fair at all. If this is your idea of being helpful, please go and help someone else William M. Connolley (talk) 21:07, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- It wasn't my intention to call you a prat. I'm sorry you drew that inference from my wording, and apologise unreservedly if you found my wording insulting. I'll try to do better in future. Was it your intention to call me stupid and malicious some weeks back? ++Lar: t/c 22:16, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- @Lar: since you are fully well aware that I did find your insult insulting, I can just about stretch what you've said into an unconditional apology, which I accept. As for your question: taht would depend on circumstance. Diffs? (@G: sorry, but I've made an attempt to de-flame this. I know what you mean, of course) William M. Connolley (talk) 09:05, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
Misc breakage
William M. Connolley (talk) 18:32, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- Sigh. For info only, out of politeness as is normal when editors are discussed on noticeboards. In my own view, you'd be best advised to ignore it and not join in the discussion. At least until there are significant further developments, but then what do I know. . . dave souza, talk 21:48, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- WMC, please don't play this game. It will not lead to a result you could qualify as positive, for anyone involved. You disagree with the ruling; that has been made abundantly clear here and everywhere else you have chosen to expound on your disapproval. Nevertheless, you need to abide by it, and such literal toeing of the line reflects poorly on yourself and will lead to escalation. — Coren 23:30, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- I don't know why you're paying any attention to JAJ. If people don't want to read this page, they don't have to. And, as SA points out, the precedent is in the other direction: this is entirely permissible. Are you really so frightened? William M. Connolley (talk) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
- Because you are a valuable contributor, even if you did get too personally involved in a conflict. Right now, you're doing you damned best to burn bridges and that is something you are most likely to regret in the end. — Coren 11:19, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
- I don't know why you're paying any attention to JAJ. If people don't want to read this page, they don't have to. And, as SA points out, the precedent is in the other direction: this is entirely permissible. Are you really so frightened? William M. Connolley (talk) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
- More constructively, why not give a hand in and around ZFC? The whole mess of set theory articles on Misplaced Pages is poorly sourced and opaque to all but someone with a strong maths background. You certainly have both experience and talent at writing that would be put to good use over there — and allow you to disengage from the climate mess. — Coren 23:41, 21 October 2010 (UTC)
- Maybe. But if you want that as a favour, you need to be rather less heavy about other matters William M. Connolley (talk) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
- I wish you could take a step back and realize that if favor this is, it would be entirely to your benefit. You're no longer a scientist when you write about CC on Misplaced Pages, Dr. Connolley, you are a participant. That's as unhealthy for you as it is disruptive to Misplaced Pages; and we are hoping a brief vacation entirely away from the topic will allow you to disengage enough to help return with objectivity. Your idea of User:WMC that does not share your watchlist was excellent — avail yourself of it. — Coren 11:19, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
- Maybe. But if you want that as a favour, you need to be rather less heavy about other matters William M. Connolley (talk) 09:02, 22 October 2010 (UTC)
- WMC, please don't play this game. It will not lead to a result you could qualify as positive, for anyone involved. You disagree with the ruling; that has been made abundantly clear here and everywhere else you have chosen to expound on your disapproval. Nevertheless, you need to abide by it, and such literal toeing of the line reflects poorly on yourself and will lead to escalation. — Coren 23:30, 21 October 2010 (UTC)