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==Security Council resolution== ==Security Council resolution==
On September 26 the five permanent members of the ] reached agreement on a draft resolution regarding implementation and enforcement of the chemical weapons agreement.<ref name="nyt26">{{cite news|author=Michael R. Gordon|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/27/world/middleeast/security-council-agrees-on-resolution-to-rid-syria-of-chemical-arms.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|title=U.N. Deal on Syrian Arms Is Milestone After Years of Inertia|publisher=] |date=2013-09-26 |deadurl=no |accessdate=27 September 2013}}</ref> <ref>{{cite news|title=Syria hands over remaining chemical arms inventory to watchdog|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Syria-hands-over-remaining-chemical-arms-inventory-to-watchdog/articleshow/22861749.cms|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=21 September 2013}}</ref>
⚫ ] negotiations took place in mid-to-late September to agree on a resolution stating how the UN would back up and enforce the plan to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons.<ref>{{cite news|title=Syria hands over remaining chemical arms inventory to watchdog|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Syria-hands-over-remaining-chemical-arms-inventory-to-watchdog/articleshow/22861749.cms|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=21 September 2013}}</ref> The negotiations among permanent members over wording of the proposed Security Council resolution have been contentious.<ref>{{cite news|title=Lavrov: US pressuring Russia into passing UN resolution on Syria under Chapter 7|url=http://rt.com/news/us-russia-syria-resolution-pressure-202/|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=UPDATE 1-Russia says opposes any resolution threatening force against Syria|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/syria-crisis-russia-idUSL5N0HI0BE20130922|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Russian official: Talks with U.S. on Syria not going 'smoothly'|url=http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.548705/|accessdate=25 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=24 September 2013}}</ref> The U.S., the UK, and France have submitted a draft resolution invoking the ]'s ], which would allow the use of military force if Syria does not fulfill its commitments, while members Russia and China are opposed to any resolution that sanctions enforcement under Chapter VII.<ref>{{cite news|title=Lavrov: US pressuring Russia into passing UN resolution on Syria under Chapter 7|url=http://rt.com/news/us-russia-syria-resolution-pressure-202/|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=UPDATE 1-Russia says opposes any resolution threatening force against Syria|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/syria-crisis-russia-idUSL5N0HI0BE20130922|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Russian official: Talks with U.S. on Syria not going 'smoothly'|url=http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.548705/|accessdate=25 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=24 September 2013}}</ref>

The draft agreed to by the U.S., France, Britain, China and Russia makes two binding demands on Syria, that it eliminate its chemical stockpile and that it allow complete access to UN and OPCW chemical weapons inspectors.<ref>{{cite news|author=Michael Corder|title=Syrian Chemical Arms Inspections Could Begin Soon|url=http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/watchdog-plan-syria-arsenal-inspections-oct-20393234/|accessdate=27 September 2013|newspaper=AP]]|date=27 September 2013}}</ref> If it does not comply with either demand, the Security Council would need to adopt a second resolution regarding imposition of military or other actions against Syria under the ]'s ].<ref>{{cite news|author=Michael Corder|title=Syrian Chemical Arms Inspections Could Begin Soon|url=http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/watchdog-plan-syria-arsenal-inspections-oct-20393234/|accessdate=27 September 2013|newspaper=AP]]|date=27 September 2013}}</ref> A vote on the draft resolution will be delayed, until at least September 27, as the OPCW must vote first on its detailed plan and procedures for securing and destroying the Syrian chemical weapons stockpile.<ref>{{cite news|author=Michael Corder|title=Syrian Chemical Arms Inspections Could Begin Soon|url=http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/watchdog-plan-syria-arsenal-inspections-oct-20393234/|accessdate=27 September 2013|newspaper=AP]]|date=27 September 2013}}</ref>

⚫ The negotiations over the Security Council draft resolution had initially been contentious,<ref>{{cite news|title=Lavrov: US pressuring Russia into passing UN resolution on Syria under Chapter 7|url=http://rt.com/news/us-russia-syria-resolution-pressure-202/|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=UPDATE 1-Russia says opposes any resolution threatening force against Syria|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/syria-crisis-russia-idUSL5N0HI0BE20130922|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Russian official: Talks with U.S. on Syria not going 'smoothly'|url=http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.548705/|accessdate=25 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=24 September 2013}}</ref> as the U.S., the UK, and France had submitted a draft resolution that included automatic invocation of ], triggering possible use of military force if Syria did not fulfill its commitments under the agreement, while members Russia and China were opposed to any resolution that sanctions enforcement under Chapter VII without a second vote of the Security Council.<ref>{{cite news|title=Lavrov: US pressuring Russia into passing UN resolution on Syria under Chapter 7|url=http://rt.com/news/us-russia-syria-resolution-pressure-202/|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=UPDATE 1-Russia says opposes any resolution threatening force against Syria|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/syria-crisis-russia-idUSL5N0HI0BE20130922|accessdate=22 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=22 September 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Russian official: Talks with U.S. on Syria not going 'smoothly'|url=http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.548705/|accessdate=25 September 2013|newspaper=]|date=24 September 2013}}</ref>


==OPCW implementation plan== ==OPCW implementation plan==

Revision as of 18:45, 27 September 2013

The Agreement to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons is a process that began with an agreement between the United States and Russia, signed September 14, 2013, that calls for the elimination of Syria's chemical weapon stockpiles by mid-2014. Following the Russia-U.S. agreement, called the Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons, Syria acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention and will apply the convention provisionally until its entry into force on October 14. On September 21, Syria provided a list of its chemical weapons stocks to OPCW, meeting a Framework deadline for a comprehensive listing of its stockpile.

The exact terms of the elimination process will be established by the Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which, along with UN inspectors, will supervise the destruction or removal of chemical arms. The UN Security Council will have responsibility for making certain Syria has fulfilled its commitments under the agreement. On September 26, 2013, its five permanent members agreed on a resolution concerning enforcement.

Background

According to reports by the governments of the U.S., France and the U.K., Syria has used poison gas on multiple occasions, most notably in the August 21, 2013 Ghouta attacks. The Syrian government has blamed rebels for that attack and for all other chemical weapons attacks in Syria. In response to the Ghouta events, a coalition of countries led by the U.S. and France, which are in support of the rebels, threatened air strikes on Syria. Russia, a key ally of Syria, had earlier sided with the Syrian government and blocked US-led efforts at the United Nations Security Council for UN-sanctioned military intervention.

On September 9, 2013, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that the air strikes could be averted if Syria turned over "every single bit" of its chemical weapons stockpiles within a week, but State Department officials stressed that Kerry's statement and its one-week deadline were rhetorical in light of the unlikelihood of Syria turning over its chemical weapons. However, hours after Kerry's statement, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia had suggested to Syria that it relinquish its chemical weapons, and Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Moallem immediately welcomed the proposal.

Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons

Negotiations

From September 12 to 14, details of the Framework were negotiated at the InterContinental Hotel in Geneva, Switzerland. High-level negotiations were held between Kerry and Lavrov, with large teams of experts simultaneously working on technical details. A key breakthrough was reported to occur when the US and Russia agreed on their approximations of the Syrian chemical weapon stockpile (estimated at 1,000 tons of Sarin, Mustard gas and VX nerve gas).

Overview

The Framework provides the following target dates, which chemical weapons experts state the OPCW Executive Council has the right to accept or modify:

  • Syria must provide a comprehensive listing of its weapons to the OPCW by September 21, 2013.
  • Initial OPCW on-site inspections of declared sites must be completed by November 2013.
  • "Equipment for producing, mixing, and filling chemical weapons must be destroyed by November 2013."
  • "All chemical weapons material and equipment" must be eliminated in the first half of 2014.

Chemical weapons expert Jean Pascal Zanders states that the challenging timetable and mid-2014 deadline agreed to in the Framework can be changed going forward, because decision-making has been passed to the OPCW's Executive Council, which will construct an implementation plan. "The Executive Council has sovereign decision-making, and the US and Russia just have one vote each among the 41 members ... All deadlines proposed in the (U.S.-Russia) bilateral document will only start running once the (Executive Council) decision has been taken," he said.

Enforcement provision

The Framework states that, in the event of noncompliance, the UN Security Council should impose measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. The Framework does not state how Syria’s compliance would be measured, or what the penalties would be if it did not comply. (Under the UN Charter, Chapter VII measures range from "demonstrations" to sanctions or military action and can be vetoed by any of the five permanent members of the Security Council.)

Russia has previously vetoed three resolutions attempting to sanction Syria, and is considered likely to veto any U.N. Security Council resolutions for military action against Syria. The U.S., however, has indicated it might if necessary resort to military action outside the U.N. if Syria fails to comply with the Framework.

Security Council resolution

On September 26 the five permanent members of the UN Security Council reached agreement on a draft resolution regarding implementation and enforcement of the chemical weapons agreement.

The draft agreed to by the U.S., France, Britain, China and Russia makes two binding demands on Syria, that it eliminate its chemical stockpile and that it allow complete access to UN and OPCW chemical weapons inspectors. If it does not comply with either demand, the Security Council would need to adopt a second resolution regarding imposition of military or other actions against Syria under the UN Charter's Chapter VII. A vote on the draft resolution will be delayed, until at least September 27, as the OPCW must vote first on its detailed plan and procedures for securing and destroying the Syrian chemical weapons stockpile.

The negotiations over the Security Council draft resolution had initially been contentious, as the U.S., the UK, and France had submitted a draft resolution that included automatic invocation of Chapter VII, triggering possible use of military force if Syria did not fulfill its commitments under the agreement, while members Russia and China were opposed to any resolution that sanctions enforcement under Chapter VII without a second vote of the Security Council.

OPCW implementation plan

A meeting of the OPCW to decide on an implementation plan for destruction of Syria's chemical weapons was postponed several times in the week prior to 20 September, at which point the meeting was postponed indefinitely. The Telegraph quoted diplomatic sources saying the reason for the delay was US-Russian disagreement regarding the text to be discussed.

The U.S., France, and the UK hope to have a Security Council vote on backing up the OPCW executive council's decision within days of receiving its implementation plan.

Implementation

Syria gave notice on 14 September 2013 that it was acceding to the Chemical Weapons Convention (taking effect 14 October), and in doing so becoming a member of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). This committed it in principle not to use chemical weapons, to the destruction of its chemical weapons within 10 years, and to the conversion or destruction of its chemical weapons production facilities.

On 21 September 2013, Syria met the Framework's first deadline, for comprehensive chemical weapons disclosure. The OPCW stated it had received and was reviewing the "expected disclosure" concerning Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles, 24 hours after stating it had received an "initial declaration" document from Syrian authorities.

The OPCW has stated that its experts will use on-site inspections to verify the accuracy of the disclosure by Syria, "and will also assist in putting into place arrangements to keep the warfare materials and the relevant facilities secure until their destruction."

Reactions

The Framework was received positively by France, Germany, the U.K., the European Union, China, and the Arab League. Israel, which has not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention itself, expressed cautious optimism, but was skeptical that Syria would comply.

Ali Haidar, Syria's Minister of National Reconciliation, praised the agreement as "a victory for Syria that was achieved thanks to our Russian friends." He described the agreement as removing a pretext for a U.S. attack on the country. Iran also stated that the agreement had deprived the U.S. of a pretext for attacking Syria.

Free Syrian Army General Salim Idris denounced the initiative. Referencing the Ghouta chemical attacks, he stated that "a crime against humanity has been committed, and there is not any mention of accountability."

Leaders of the main rebel coalition, the Syrian National Coalition, were angered that the U.S. had reversed course suddenly, after informing coalition leaders that missile strikes on Syrian government forces were imminent. In addition, in the view of opposition leaders, the agreement with Russia represented a de facto admission of the Bashar al-Assad government's legitimacy, making it less likely that possible peace talks would result in his removal from power.

Difficulty of implementation

The secretary-general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, Li Hong, said that both the turbulent civil war and the financial cost of chemical weapons disposal will be a heavy burden on the Syrian government, and stated that it is "unrealistic" to expect Syrian chemical weapons to be fully eliminated by 2014.

On September 10, 2013, Yochi Dreazen, writing in Foreign Policy, stated that the implementation of the plan would not be easy: "Taking control of Assad's enormous stores of the munitions would be difficult to do in the midst of a brutal civil war. Dozens of new facilities for destroying the weapons would have to be built from scratch or brought into the country from the U.S., and completing the job would potentially take a decade or more." The success of the plan would depend on Syria revealing 100% of its stockpile, much of which is moveable and spread across dozens of sites - and it would be difficult, particularly in civil war conditions, to verify that this had happened.

See also

External links

References

  1. "China Welcomes Russia-U.S. Framework Agreement on Syria: Wang". Bloomberg. 22 September 2013. Retrieved 15 September 2013. China welcomes a framework agreement signed by Russia and the U.S.
  2. Spokesperson (September 14, 2013).Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons. state.gov. Retrieved September 14, 2013.
  3. ^ Gordon, Michael R. (September 14, 2013). U.S. and Russia Reach Deal to Destroy Syria’s Chemical Arms. The New York Times. Retrieved September 14, 2013.
  4. ^ "Syria meets deadline for chemical weapons disclosure". Reuters. 21 September 2013. Retrieved 22 September 2013.
  5. ^ Michael R. Gordon (2013-09-26). "U.N. Deal on Syrian Arms Is Milestone After Years of Inertia". New York Times. Retrieved 27 September 2013. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  6. ^ Joseph Charlton (2013-09-16). "Syria crisis: 'clear and convincing evidence of sarin gas' says UN". The Independent (UK). Retrieved 18 September 2013. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help) Cite error: The named reference ":2" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
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  9. Richter, Paul (August 28, 2013). "Russian resistance torpedoes United Nations resolution on Syria". Los Angeles Times.
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  40. Khaled Yacoub Oweis (2013-09-20). "Insight: Angered by chemical deal, Syrian rebels may lose the West". Reuters. Retrieved 24 September 2013. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
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  43. Yochi Dreazen, Foreign Policy, 10 September 2013, There's Almost No Chance Russia's Plan for Syria's Chemical Weapons Will Work
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