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This page is not a forum for general discussion about Climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Climate change at the Reference desk.

Discussions on this page often lead to previous arguments being restated. Please read recent comments, look in the archives, and review the FAQ before commenting.

faq page Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change? A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists. See also: Scientific consensus on climate change Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place? A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)." Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans? A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics, including academically trained ones, they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives: Current human emissions of CO2 are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. This is easily seen in a graph of CO2 concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend. Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels. Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels. If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic). Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it? A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated? A5: Two reasons: There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly. However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations. Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import. Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"? A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2? A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles. See also: Clathrate gun hypothesis and Arctic methane release Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled? A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change. This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998? A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998. More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out; thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement? A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name." Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD. While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference: A map of the Eastern Settlement A satellite image of that area today A map of the Western Settlement A satellite image of that area today A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists? A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years? A12: Measurements show that it has not. Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts. Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. See also: Arctic sea ice decline See also: Antarctic sea ice § Recent trends and climate change Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming? A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming. The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975. (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.) The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming. Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect? A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change. Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. See also: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)? A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming. A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars. Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'" There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change. This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices. Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates. Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Misplaced Pages's own article. See also: Climate of Mars and Extraterrestrial atmosphere Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money? A16: No, Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses. Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work. There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming. Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data. Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist. Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity? A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe? A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important? A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities. Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change. Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby? A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Misplaced Pages is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Misplaced Pages is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before? A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays? A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment: Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires: Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation, These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN), The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and Cloud cover on Earth must be declining. Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step." Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true? A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References ^ Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020. ^ "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020. Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help) Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009. Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009. "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007. Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467. The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012. "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009. Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017. The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða. "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009. Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64. Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek. Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes. Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN. "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011. Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

Better and more pictures showing also the temperature scale inside and time frame before

Lots of images interfering with page readability. Click to show.

Why isn't this article marked as POV?

There is no way that this is NOT a disputed topic. This is not about a flat earth, folks. Please do not collapse and push away this talk section. Allow discussion, (and see the talk on the Climate Change article neutrality) thank you.

This article is completely biased, if not bigoted in many sections. 'Climate Change' should not be marginalized to become a new synonym for Man-made Global Warming theories. Climate Change should address the dispute in some section, yet it should be objective and non-partisan in all general, and other sections that do not specifically address the AGW (man-made Global Warming theory).

Also, the FAQ section of the Talk page is completely disputable and very bigoted towards a pro-AGW (man-made global warming theory). It is inane to have such a FAQ, as well.

This is VERY important to correct, as it's a FEATURED article (somehow, without any dispute banner or sections on the counter theories and disputes).

The banner needs to be added at the top of the article (at the very least). There should not be a bigoted FAQ, as there are so many disputes, contradictions and ambiguity. The FAQ, at the least, should consider each side's rationale and should not be edited/filtered by those who have a bigoted point of view. It needs to be NPOV. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 205.131.188.5 (talk) 18:41, 25 November 2013 (UTC)

How do we decide what is true? For most people, it depends on the media they listen to. Unless you are yourself a climate scientist (one of the tiny percentage of climate scientists who disagree with the idea that people are causing the climate to get warmer), then you listen to media that "doubt" global warming as part of their editorial stance. But when Misplaced Pages posts the "disputed" banner, they don't just mean that there is a dispute, but that there is disagreement among recognized authorities. That isn't the case with man-made global warming. Rick Norwood (talk) 21:58, 27 November 2013 (UTC)

This clearly is a disputed topic, and the specific suggestion is that the article have the "infamous wiki banner: "The neutrality of this article is disputed." The article is extremely biased towards one point of view, and should at least mention critics, and not wrongly claim that some points are "unequivocal"... cwmacdougall 23:12, 24 December 2013 (UTC)

Anyone can say something is "disputed", but we look for arguments based on what wikipedia defines as reliable sources. So far, the one-and-only suggestion in this thread is that we add the POV tag. However, the rules for that tag are that the substance of the dispute is to be discussed on the talk page. This is WP:SOAP unless you articulate a specific criticism and provide some reasoning based on cites to what wikipedia defines as reliable sources.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:08, 25 December 2013 (UTC)

The "collapse" tag wrongly said there was no specific proposal, when there was, so clearly that tag should not be there; it was an appalling attempt to close down debate on the talk page. The WP:SOAP is the attempt to remove any hint of alternative views, which do exist among reputable scientists. Even the IPPC no longer believes what it argued several years ago, due to developing evidence, so that change should be mentioned. The article needs more work to meet the NPOV and quality standards of Misplaced Pages. cwmacdougall 1:33, 25 December 2013 (UTC)

I have restored this Talk discussion of POV - the removal of an article talk discussion to suppress debate is one of the most offensive and disruptive editing practices I have ever seen on Misplaced Pages. Please desist in your offensive behaviour. I agree that the change 205.131.188.5 and I propose does require more evidence, but the purpose of a Talk page is to raise issues for further work. cwmacdougall 7:03, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

A “Neutrality in Dispute” tag would be appropriate because:

1 - Editors’ behaviour: Some of the most active editors display very biased activity, attempting to crush discussion on the Talk page. In particular TS has deleted whole sections of Talk on more than one occasion, while NewsAndEventsGuy tried to silence me with unjustified allegations of disruptive editing, while he also collapsed a whole section on the false claim that it lacked specific recommendations. This biased behaviour suggests there is a problem of systematic bias to the whole article.

2 - New data: when data changes, science changes; the pause in global warming is now over 15 years old, contrary to IPPC predictions. The initial response a few years ago was, rightly, to say more data were needed. The article claims "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”, but it must be equivocal if it hasn’t warmed for 15 years. Indeed the 2013 IPPC report, revised downward its forecasts of the speed and extent of warming in light of the new data. The article needs to be similarly revised, and is biased until it does.

3 - Extreme events: the article talks of forecasts of an "increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events”. Yet the 2013 IPPC report says "confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low” and there are no "robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes”. Again the article needs to be revised in light of changing views of the IPPC.

4 - Biased sources: clearly biased advocacy groups like Greenpeace are cited.

5 - Reputable critics: there are a good number of reputable academics critical of the dominant view. There are many examples including for example Dr Edward Wegman, Dr. Robert M. Carter, and Dr. Richard Lindzen. While it is right that Misplaced Pages should reflect the scientific consensus, readers should be aware that there serious scientists with different views.

cwmacdougall 12:31, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

Re (1), alleged editorial misconduct is a strawman because even if true it is not one of the justifications for use of the POV tag described in the (usage notes for the tag)

Re (2), cwmacdougal makes the naked assertion that AGW "paused" for 15 years even though we have been begging for RSs to back up his statements. In any case, CW's premise (that global warming paused for 15 years) stands in contrast to what IPCC AR5 WG1 said when they officially released the "Summary for Policymakers" a couple months ago, "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850".

Re(3), A. The full WG1 (science) report has not yet been released so arguments over what they might say are misplaced (unless you have a specific cite you have not yet shared with us) ; B. The draft still says there will be an increase in extreme events even if a signal in the current data is........ so far......... difficult to identify.

Re(4), without specifics this is handwaving and we'd be happy to discuss improvements instead of doing a WP:BATTLE over vague tag complaints; plus there are other approaches like the simple reversion approach you have been using for greenpeace references elsewhere.

Re(5), you have not provided any cites to WP:RS

Past requests for your sources include

• First request (in this thread) for specific complaint backed with reliable sources
• Second request (at user's talk page) for specific complaint backed with reliable sources
• Third request (implied in another thread on this talk page) for specific complaint backed with reliable sources

As I said when I collapsed the thread the first time, is WP:SOAP and WP:FORUM.

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:15, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

1 - The non-neutral tag is appropriate when the article "does not fairly represent the balance of perspectives of high-quality, reliable secondary sources." Evidence of biased behaviour by editors trying to suppress alternative perspectives is certainly evidence of this.

2 - Look for example at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/e/f/Paper1_Observing_changes_in_the_climate_system.PDF

"Global mean surface temperatures...have been relatively flat over the most recent 15 years to 2013".

3 - That's what the widely publicised final draft says. See 2.6.3. of:

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf

4 - Greenpeace is an advocacy group, not an academic institution; I don't know how anyone could suggest it is ever RS.

5 - On Christmas Morning you asked for sources. I provided them on Boxing day. I don't think your complaint has a leg to stand on, especially as we are discussing my "I agree" comment on the Talk page, not the article itself.

The article is biased, and these are clear sourced examples; if I had good sources to counter all the biased points I would just edit the article. But the process will be a long one, and in the meantime, we need a warning to users that the article is biased. We should add a "neutrality disputed" tag to the article.

cwmacdougall 14:24, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

(1) You left out the part about how the tag is to be used as a "last resort" after trying to discuss, including discussing WP:RS, as we are (finally) now doing.

(2) The cite to the Met Office paper is the only meat in this thread; I'll comment on this later (and being the only substantive thing in this thread it should be broken out and discussed separately.)

(3) The final "draft" is moot because it is a draft and says on the bottom of each page (paraphrasing) "Don't quote or cite"

(4) WP:SOFIXIT

(5) You have provided a single proposed WP:RS (Paper #1 in a 3-paper series from the Met Office). So that we can do a proper review, were your earlier remarks based on any additional proposed WP:RSs, or have you subsequently found any to support your remarks that you would like to now cite in support?

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:58, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

I gave five well sourced examples of why the article is biased and should have a tag; that should be enough. cwmacdougall 15:02, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

You've made some spurious assertions without any clear proposals for improving the article, or adequate sources supporting your claims. . . dave souza, talk 16:47, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

You're the one making assertions; if you want to be taken seriously, add some evidence, as I've done, solidly. And the proposal is clear: add a "neutrality disputed" tag. cwmacdougall 17:29, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

@ cwmacdougall, "The editor who adds the tag should first discuss concerns on the talk page, pointing to specific issues that are actionable within the content policies, and should add this tag only as a last resort." You've not made any actionable proposals, and content policies require published sources which you've failed to provide: the WP:BURDEN is on you to provide detailed proposals backed by sources, and show that your proposals don't give WP:UNDUE weight to fringe commentators. . . dave souza, talk 18:29, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

Per the the usage guidelines the tag may be removed when the basis for the tag is vague; I have rebutted 4-out-of-5 of your numbered paragraphs (#1,3,4,&5) which did not contain citations to any viable proposed WP:RS. Your remaining item, paragraph #2, does reference an RS - a 2013 paper from the Met Office. I have broken that issue out for separate discussion in a new subsection. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:58, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

Met Office paper and the last 15 years of global temps

In the (roundabout) discussion above, cwmacdougall asserted just one reliable source-supported reason why this article should bear the POV tag. He said

2 - New data: when data changes, science changes; the pause in global warming is now over 15 years old, contrary to IPCC predictions. The initial response a few years ago was, rightly, to say more data were needed. The article claims "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”, but it must be equivocal if it hasn’t warmed for 15 years. Indeed the 2013 IPCC report, revised downward its forecasts of the speed and extent of warming in light of the new data. The article needs to be similarly revised, and is biased until it does.

and when he identified an WP:RS to support this argument he said:

Look for example at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/e/f/Paper1_Observing_changes_in_the_climate_system.PDF, "Global mean surface temperatures...have been relatively flat over the most recent 15 years to 2013".

In the quote chosen by CW is the pesky little word "surface", which is left out of CW's analysis. Recall that the climate system has five parts (in lay terms the air, land, water, icy places, and living things). The "surface" is the interface between the atmosphere and the other four parts (the "surface" of the lithosphere/cryosphere/bioshere/hyrosphere). Elsewhere in the Met's 3-paper series they talk about continued warming of the other parts of the system. Nowhere does the MET say warming of the climate system is "equivocal"; CW's extrapolation to arrive at that conclusion is pure editorial original research.

Since the only RS-supported reason that has been suggested as a basis for this tag rests on WP:OR following a mis-reading of the Met's paper, a POV tag, if existed, would be removable under the usage note's removal-justification #2, "no satisfactory explanation has been given." NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:58, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

Agree. Do we cover this slowdown in surface temp increase elsewhere? Several interesting studies discuss this, including Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 and Cowtan and Way 2013 (link to RC report). There's also the question of whether the current temperatures actually do deviate from IPCC projections: Ars Technica cites studies snowing these projections have been on target so far, the Grauniad cites a more recent study reaching a similar conclusion. . dave souza, talk 19:19, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

It's also dubious if there was a "pause" even in surface temps, as discussed in this blog post which I offer for talk page purposes only. But the RSs it links inline are generally pretty good. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:30, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

Why isn't this article marked as POV? - Continued

I listed five well sourced arguments as to why there should be a POV tag. Let’s review them in light of the discussion so far:

1 - Editors’ behaviour: It has been demonstrated again that regular editors of this page edit in an extremely biased disruptive manner. NewsAndEventsGuy has yet again collapsed the discussion, on the false biased premise that only one of my five points was supported by RS, and in doing so hid crucial parts of my argument. Remember that TS deleted entire Talk discussions on at least two occasions. I have never seen such biased POV editing of Talk pages in Misplaced Pages before. It calls into question the neutrality of the entire article, and on its own is enough to justify a POV tag.

2 - New data: The Met reported no surface warming for 15 years. Perhaps the ocean depths or upper atmosphere have warmed, but with no surface warming you get no land ice melting, so no rise in water levels, and you get no movement North of dangerous insects, two of the alleged problems from "global warming”. It is a rather significant development, and leaving it and its potential implications out is a sign of POV.

3 - Extreme events: No one has contradicted my quotation from the IPCC draft saying they found no evidence of increased extreme weather events. The most anyone could say was that it was a draft, not the final report, and that they asked not to be quoted. But the fact that that is their preliminary conclusion is rather significant, and they can’t stop people from quoting it. Ignoring this RS point is again a sign of POV.

4 - Biased sources: No one has contradicted my point that the article cites biased advocacy groups. Their continued inclusion is a continued sign of POV.

5 - Reputable critics: No one has contradicted my point that there are reputable academics critical of the dominant view. Of course the conclusion should reflect the consensus, but to ignore respectable critical views on such an important and controversial subject is a sign of POV.

I have produced five examples of POV, well sourced. I’m sure, especially given point 1, that I could find many others. Readers need to be warned that the article is not neutral while we work to improve it. It needs the POV tag.

cwmacdougall 0:24, 28 December 2013 (UTC)

Perhaps you have a different definition of 'well sourced' than the rest of us because all you have presented above is a mishmash of assertion and the uncontested observation that various critics (mostly lay people with zero expertise) dispute the prevailing scientific understanding of global warming, a topic we devote multiple pages to. There is no evidence that your unwillingness to read and understand Misplaced Pages guidelines (notably WP:OR and WP:RS) infers editors are biased and our article is un-neutral. Unless you take the necessary time to read and understand what is being said, you are simply wasting everyone's time. — TPX 11:38, 28 December 2013 (UTC)

You don't think the IPCC and the Met Office are good sources? You don't think deleting Talk discussions you don't like is proof of bias? Amazing... cwmacdougall 12:54, 28 December 2013 (UTC)

I do not believe you care for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is the reason why you keep getting the IPCC acronym wrong. But to answer your question: Yes, both the IPCC and Met Office are perfectly good sources, however your personal interpretation of their work, to the exclusion of all other measurements, is in question. Editors are always happy to improve the article and discuss particulars with you, so be specific, avoid accusations of bias and politely engage in the areas already expanded upon. — TPX 15:09, 28 December 2013 (UTC)

Did you actually read my comments? I don't think I've added "personal" interpretations. Re accusations of bias, that is the whole point - how else is a POV tag justified? cwmacdougall 13:50, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

cwmacdougall, thanks for correcting your earlier misspellings of IPCC, but did you actually read the sources you've suggested? If these aren't your personal interpretations, they look like the sort of quote-mining to be found on certain blogs. Like the ellipses in your bit from the Met Office, which misses the context that "Global mean surface temperatures rose rapidly from the 1970s, but have been relatively flat over the most recent 15 years to 2013. This has prompted speculation...." and evidently you're continuing such speculation while ignoring their summary conclusions that "The observations show that: • A wide range of climate quantities continue to show changes. For instance, we have observed a continued decline in Arctic sea ice and a rise in global sea level. These changes are consistent with our understanding of how the climate system responds to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. • Global mean surface temperatures remain high, with the last decade being the warmest on record. •Although the rate of surface warming appears to have slowed considerably over the most recent decade, such slowing for a decade or so has been seen in the past in observations and is simulated in climate models, where they are temporary events." . . . dave souza, talk 18:16, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

Dave, your objection might make sense if I was some denier arguing that global warming had been "disproven". I'm not; I'm just saying that the article's coverage is not a neutral balanced assessment of the sources. cwmacdougall 23:11, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

Not really. Compare how you interpret Paper#1 in the Met Office's 3-paper series.

You said (in your paragraph #2), "the pause in global warming is now over 15 years old, contrary to IPPC predictions" and according to you, this makes global warming "equivocal"

whereas the Met itself explains that the supposed "pause" just relates to surface temps and many other indicators in the climate system show ongoing warming.

The Met said ::"The first paper shows that a wide range of observed climate indicators continue to show changes that are consistent with a globally warming world, and our understanding of how the climate system works."

You have given the paper a polar opposite reading.

Meanwhile,

you also said, "Readers need to be warned that the article is not neutral ..."

whereas

the POV tag rules say, "Do not use this template to 'warn' readers about the article."

We have made zero progress in either of these threads, and in my opinion, both of them were and remain WP:SOAP and WP:FORUM outside the scope of constructive dialogue envisioned by WP:ARBCC.

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:46, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

I agree that much fuller assessment would be required than what I wrote on the Talk page; that actually was my point - that failure even to mention the apparent surface warming pause, and cover it in a neutral fashion, is bias. Thank you for the correction about the purpose of the POV tag, which I should have noted: "The purpose of this group of templates is to attract editors with different viewpoints to edit articles that need additional insight." That is what is needed, and we have made progress. I presented five well sourced examples of bias, and they have not been contradicted. It should have the tag. cwmacdougall 0:17, 30 December 2013 (UTC)

(A) "Not been contradicted," huh? Please show me where it says that (in your words), "Editors’ behaviour" is grounds for the POV tag? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:37, 30 December 2013 (UTC)

(B) CW, would you be satisfied with text saying something like, "In the last 15 years the rate of surface warming has slowed producing an overall warming of surface temperatures that, in the words of the Met Office, was 'relatively flat', but multiple indicators elsewhere in the climate system have been consistent with continued warming. (cite Met Office Paper). In addition, studies have shown that the majority of global warming goes into the ocean, and warming of the deep ocean (below 700m) has continued throughout this period. (cite one of the many RSs)". Would that satisfy you? If not, then please produce some sample text to explain the gist of how you think the so-called "pause" can be addressed in a neutral manner? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:09, 30 December 2013 (UTC)

No return to old, disreputable practice

This is an article about a well established scientific topic. As such, it's relatively easy to identify when people are being unencyclopedic in their approach to the material.

I've removed one discussion section which provided no credible and specific discussion of needed enhancements or emendations to the material or its structure. In particular, handwaving denunciations of scientific material are not welcome anywhere on Misplaced Pages.

Specific and well supported identification of problems, on the other hand, are welcome. Finally, a reminder is due: the editing on this article, and related conduct, are governed by ARBCC, which is basically Misplaced Pages policy with sharper teeth. --TS 22:39, 25 December 2013 (UTC)

WP:ARBCC is the link NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:15, 25 December 2013 (UTC)

The deletion of an entire talk section by TS is an act of vandalism, attempting to shut down debate, and should not be tolerated. I have restored the section. The old practice of discussion on the Talk page has served us well. cwmacdougall 7:39, 26 December 2013 (UTC)

As long as productive discussion is possible, efforts should continue. --TS 01:08, 27 December 2013 (UTC)

In my view, an admin hatting is in order.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:58, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

I think there is some progress here. The current scientific interpretation of some data has been discussed at more length. As a person reasonably aware of the scientific case, I sometimes overlook the fact that many people only encounter the topic in very misleading blog posts that misrepresent the science. I think this discussion may provide fruitful material for the FAQ, and at least one editor is learning something new, so let's continue as long as good faith disagreements on sources remain. --TS 00:43, 30 December 2013 (UTC)

FAQ, scientists and money

Since at least October 2009, our FAQ has included the following...

Do scientists support global warming just to get more money?

No,

• Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly direct expenses.
• Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, but only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
• In the U.S., global warming was seen as a politically sensitive topic under the Bush administration, which discouraged scientists from working on the topic.
• It could also be argued that more money lies in examining the policy debate on global warming.

1. Paul Harris (21 September 2003). "Bush covers up climate research". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
2. Juliet Eilperin (05 February 2007). "AEI Critiques of Warming Questioned". Washington Post. Retrieved 11 January 2009. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
3. "Bribes offered to scientists". The Sydney Morning Herald. 03 February 2007. Retrieved 11 January 2009. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)

In gross 3RR and ARBCC violation, 205.131.188.5 (talk · contribs) has recently deleted the last two bullet points six different times. As I understand it, the IP deleted those bullet points on the IP's assertion that they do not address the FAQ question "Do scientists support global warming just to get more money?".

I think the last two items are within the scope of the question and should remain (as they have since 2009). Perhaps they could be improved and/or supplemented, but they should not be deleted.

Comments? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:20, 3 December 2013 (UTC)

For one thing, the question itself is phrased in a strange way. I know a lot of scientists. They don't "support" global warming. They research it, and try to quantify global warming, project it into the future, and provide information about it to government and the public, but they don't "support" it. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:23, 3 December 2013 (UTC)

NewsAndEventsGuy that question sounds a bit off indeed. How about something like: Do scientists receive a direct monetary compensation to endorse global warming?. Regards. Gaba 01:59, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

I guess I didn't speak clearly. They don't "endorse" global warming per se any more than they "support" it. I think we're trying to talk about their tendency to endorse the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming, not the phenomena itself. In addition, we're talking about scientists who get money related to global warming research and we are (apparently) not talking about any other scientists. So we should qualify which scientists also. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 04:23, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Would you mind making a proposal to see what you're aiming at? Thanks. Gaba 09:53, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

I think the original question and the first two bullet points have originally been written by me, at a time when we were less nit-picking. Another, less incorrect version, would be: "Do scientists support the mainstream theory of anthropogenic global warming just to get more money?" --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:27, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

That better; we can pick additional nits with "Does nearly all of the research published in the professional scientific literature support the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming (see FAQ Q1) just so the scientists doing the research can get more money?" NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:39, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Too complex for my taste, and does not really hit the spots. Scientific support for the AGW theory goes quite a bit beyond the literature - conferences, press statements, statements by academic societies, work for the IPCC, ... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:22, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

Why not simplify the question as ":Do scientists investigate global warming just to get grant money?". Similar "no"s and the point could be added that in 1998 plans were revealed for "a campaign to recruit a cadre of scientists who share the industry's views of climate science and to train them in public relations so they can help convince journalists, politicians and the public that the risk of global warming is too uncertain to justify controls on greenhouse gases" . Cushman, John H., Jr. (26 April 1998), "Industrial Group Plans To Battle Climate Treaty", New York Times, retrieved 5 December 2013{{citation}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) . . dave souza, talk 20:13, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

That's the best yet, Dave, at least IMO. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:55, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

Forgot to mention they had a budget of millions. See Hockey stick controversy#Kyoto Protocol for a couple more sources, and Hockey stick controversy#Soon & Baliunas and Inhofe's hoax accusation for Bush's finest, with a petrol funded chief of staff using a petrol funded study to justify censoring an EPA report. Not quire so relevant, but fun. . dave souza, talk 22:22, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

I've removed an offensive comment that, aming other things, accused other editors of this article of editing for money on behalf of advocacy groups. --TS 01:02, 10 December 2013 (UTC)

Possible useful source

Nothing much we don't already know, I don't think, but this could be another useful source. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=dark-money-funds-climate-change-denial-effort Either here or at Climate change denial. --Nigelj (talk) 21:43, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

Also being discussed at Global warming conspiracy theory NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:08, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

Thanks, NEAG. Somehow, that page had got removed from my watchlist, and I hadn't noticed. --Nigelj (talk) 23:04, 29 December 2013 (UTC)

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