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=== Agreement of Electoral Guarantees === | === Agreement of Electoral Guarantees === | ||
⚫ | The signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees between three of the original five presidential candidates, Maduro, Falcón y Bertucci, was presented as an extension of the norms to the process when considering, among other aspects, the elimination of "red points" controlled by the ], which after the agreement had to be farther away from voting centers, international observers and the return of the voting centers changed during the Constituent Assembly elections and the ], what was presented as a concession of the Electoral Branch with parties, candidates and the citizenship. The agreement has been questioned and rejected by the NGOs Voto Joven, the Cepaz and the Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy. On 27 March, the Cepaz director Beatriz Borges declared that "the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees is a scam for the citizen since it covers points already established in the Law and that the CNE has not met".<ref name=":22" /> Despite that the presidential candidates Henri Falcón, Javier Bertucci and Luis Alejandro Ratti have denounced the violation of guarantees provded in the agreement, on 2 May the president of the CNE, ], contradicted the complaints and assured that the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees was "fulfilled in its entirety".<ref>{{cite news|last=León|first=Ibis|title=Lucena contradice a candidatos y asegura que acuerdo de garantías se cumple|url=http://efectococuyo.com/politica/lucena-contradice-a-candidatos-y-asegura-que-acuerdo-de-garantias-se-cumple/|date=2 May 2018|accessdate=|work=Efecto Cocuyo|location=|page=|number=}}</ref> | ||
{{Quote box | |||
| quote = The Agreement of Electoral Guarantees is a scam for the citizen since it covers points already established in the Law and that the CNE has not met | |||
| author = Beatriz Borges, Peace and Justice Center director | |||
| width = 30% | |||
⚫ | |||
=== Campaigning === | === Campaigning === | ||
⚫ | The presidential and elections and legislative councils campaign started on 22 April and ends on 17 May at midnight, according to the schedule approved by the CNE. However, candidates postulated for the presidency or the reelection have carried out activities with the electorate and have exposed proposals that will be executed in case of being elected, violating article 75 of the {{interlanguage link|Organic Law of Electoral Processes|es|Ley Orgánica de Procesos Electorales}}. Francisco Castro, national coordinator of Súmate, pointed out that the CNE provided only 26 for the national campaign, explaining that the term "does not allow candidates to have enough time to promove their ideas and call for participation, so they are forced to anticipate their campaign. By tradition, the process lasts more than 60 days", and reminded that the CNE summoned with 80 days of anticipation an election of more than 500 positions, reducing the time of the activities. Equally, he indicated that the CNE does not regulate pre-campaign and claims that as long as there isn't an explicit call to vote the candidate cannot be sanctioned. Castro reminded that the pattern carried out since the government of ] is repeated, in which electoral campaign is made with public officials and governors are used to inaugurate works and make promises.<ref name=":022">{{cite news|last=Martínez|first=Sammy Paola|title=Candidatos incumplen ley electoral al realizar campaña anticipada|url=http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/politica/candidatos-incumplen-ley-electoral-realizar-campana-anticipada_229949|date=7 April 2018|accessdate=24 April 2018|work=El Nacional|page=}}</ref> | ||
{{Quote box | |||
| quote = It should be prevented that an official, such as the president, use the communication platform to take advantage of the other candidates. In this election there are several who have propaganda on television, but there is no CNE that limits the number of times that is transmitted daily neither the minutes nor the content | |||
| author = Francisco Castro, national coordinator of ] | |||
| width = 30% | |||
⚫ | |||
Ignacio Ávalos, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, and political scientist Luis Salamanca agreed that so far that until now a electoral environment or government project does not exist, but rather "a struggle to achieve power", stressing that electoral competition was suppressed and that a electoral campaign was designed for the ] convenience. Salamanca asserted that "Maduro distributes benefits to obtain votes and Falcón offers benefits in the future in exchange for votes. None has enough weigh to mobilize the country electorally".<ref name=":022" /> | Ignacio Ávalos, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, and political scientist Luis Salamanca agreed that so far that until now a electoral environment or government project does not exist, but rather "a struggle to achieve power", stressing that electoral competition was suppressed and that a electoral campaign was designed for the ] convenience. Salamanca asserted that "Maduro distributes benefits to obtain votes and Falcón offers benefits in the future in exchange for votes. None has enough weigh to mobilize the country electorally".<ref name=":022" /> |
Revision as of 10:39, 5 May 2018
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Politics of Venezuela |
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Elections |
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Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 20 May 2018. Considered a snap election, the original electoral date was scheduled for December 2018, pulled ahead to 22 April 2018, but then delayed for additional weeks to May 2018.
Several Venezuelan NGOs, such as Foro Penal Venezolano, Súmate, Voto Joven, the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory and the Citizen Electoral Network, have expressed their concern over the irregularities of the electoral schedule, including the lack of the Constituent Assembly's competences to summon the elections, impeding participation of opposition political parties and the lack of time for standard electoral functions. Because of this, the United Nations Human Rights Council, European Union, the Organization of American States, the Lima Group and countries such as the United States and Colombia have rejected the electoral process. However, countries such as Bolivia, Cuba and Russia have voiced their support for Maduro.
Background
Further information: Crisis in Venezuela (2012–present)Following the death of President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela faced a severe socioeconomic crisis during the presidency of his successor, Nicolas Maduro. Due to the country's high levels of urban violence, inflation, and chronic shortages of basic goods attributed primarily to the devaluated currency price of Venezuelan bolívar and to some extent due to economic policies such as strict price controls, and civil insurrection in Venezuela culminated into the 2014–17 protests. Protests occurred over the years, with demonstrations occurring in various sizes depending on the events Venezuelans were facing during the crisis.
After facing years of crisis, the Venezuelan opposition pursued a recall referendum against President Maduro, presenting a petition to the CNE on 2 May 2016. By August 2016, the momentum to recall President Maduro appeared to be progressing, with the CNE setting a date for the second phase of collecting signatures, though it made the schedule strenuous, stretching the process into 2017 which made it impossible for the opposition to activate new presidential elections. On 21 October 2016, the CNE suspended the referendum only days before preliminary signature-gatherings were to be held. The CNE blamed alleged voter fraud as the reason for the cancellation of the referendum. International observers criticized the move, stating that CNE's decision made Maduro look as if he were seeking to rule as a dictator. Days after the recall movement was cancelled, 1.2 million Venezuelans protested throughout the country against the move, demanding President Maduro to leave office, with Caracas protests remaining calm while protests in other states resulted in clashes between demonstrators and authorities, leaving one policeman dead, 120 injured and 147 arrested. That day the opposition gave President Maduro a deadline of 3 November 2016 to hold elections, with opposition leader Henrique Capriles stating, "Today we are giving a deadline to the government. I tell the coward who is in Miraflores ... that on 3 November the Venezuelan people are coming to Caracas because we are going to Miraflores." By 7 December 2016, dialogue halted between the two.
Days later on 1 November 2016, then National Assembly President and opposition leader Henry Ramos Allup announced the cancellation of the 3 November march to the Miraflores presidential palace, with Vatican-led dialogue between the opposition and the government beginning. Two months later on 13 January 2017 after talks stalled, the Vatican officially pulled out of the dialogue. Further protests were much smaller due to the fear of repression, with the opposition organizing surprise protests instead of organized mass marches. The opposition then began to focus on its electoral efforts, with only sporadic protests occurring thereafter.
Following the 2017 Venezuelan constitutional crisis, protests in Venezuela intensified in mid-2017, though the movement died down after President Maduro called for a controversial special election, which resulted with the installation of the pro-government superbody, the Constituent National Assembly. Regional elections that occurred months later further cemented the government's power after they won 18 of the 23 governorships.
Election preparations
After the government overcame mass protests and won two major disputed elections, one of which installed a constitutional superbody, the government rallied behind President Maduro, with government sources stating that elections were to be moved ahead to February or March of 2018 instead of the planned late-2018 date to take advantage of their electoral momentum. On 11 December 2017, President Maduro announced that many of the main opposition parties, including Justice First and Popular Will, would be banned from participating in the 2018 presidential election because of their boycott of the 2017 municipal elections.
In February 2018, the government announced that elections would be held on 22 April 2018, less than three months before the date. Popular Will announed on 16 February that it will boycott the elections. Following weeks of controversy involving international condemnation and rejection of potential election results, the CNE delayed the election for a few additional weeks pushing for a late-May election date.
Electoral system
See also: Elections in Venezuela § Polling procedureThe President of Venezuela is elected by plurality in a single round of voting.
The elections will be overseen by the National Electoral Council, with poll workers drafted via a lottery of registered voters. Polling places are equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines. After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close. Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.
After the signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees on 1 March by the political parties Great Patriotic Pole, Movimiento al Socialismo, Avanzada Progresista and COPEI, the United Nations was requested to head a electoral mission, but the organization refused after receiving a formal invitation and the visit of the principal candidates or their representatives. The Carter Center has turned down Maduro’s invitation to send an observation team on election day, as well other as other election observing institutions.
Smartmatic, the electoral product company which had participated in the majority of elections under the Bolivarian government, ceased operations in its native country in March 2018, stating that they could not guarantee the validity of election results through its machines.
Primary process
Opposition
In March 2017, parties of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), the opposition's main electoral alliance, began discussion on who would be their candidate for the 2018 presidential elections. On 14 March 2017, Popular Will announced that Leopoldo López, the party's National Coordinator who is currently imprisoned for his role in the 2014 Venezuelan protests against the Bolivarian government, was chosen to be their candidate for the MUD primaries. Days later on 20 March 2017, Justice First chose Henrique Capriles Radonski to be their candidate for the primaries, his third run for the presidency, with his previous attempts occurring in the 2012 and 2013 Venezuelan presidential election. On 21 March 2017, Henry Ramos Allup, a veteran politician in Venezuela, was chosen to be the candidate for the Democratic Action.
The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) announced that it will boycott the presidential election.
- Opinion polls
As of 5 May 2018, a poll by DolarToday showed that if the elections were the current day, 45% of the participants would give their opposition vote for Lorenzo Mendoza, CEO of Empresas Polar, 24% for Leopoldo Lopez, 12% for María Corina Machado, 9% for Henry Ramos Allup, 7% for Henrique Capriles and 3% for Henri Falcón.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Capriles | Ramos | López | Others/ Independent |
Undecided/ Don't know |
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Venebarametro | 23 October—7 November 2017 | 889 | 12.6% | 7.3% | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 23.8% | 47.3% | 9.0% |
Hercon | 20–29 August 2017 | 1,200 | 16.2% | 8.1% | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 20.3% | 16.4% | 39.0% |
Hercon | 15–30 April 2017 | 1,200 | 25.1% | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Democratic Action/meta/color;" align=center| 29.5% | – | 4.9% | 16.5% |
Datanalisis | 29 November–12 December 2016 | 1,200 | 16.9% | 4.7% | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 21.2% | 1.0% | 18.5% |
Hercon | 25 September–10 October 2016 | 1,200 | 25.8% | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Democratic Action/meta/color;" align=center| 33.6% | – | – | 40.5% |
Datanalisis | July 2015 | 1,000 | 17.3% | - | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 25.2% | 12.7% | 12.6% |
Datanalisis | January -February 2015 | 1,000 | 17.4% | - | style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 20.0% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
Disqualifications
The majority of popular leaders of the MUD and other members of the opposition were banned from participating in the presidential elections by the government. This included Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo López, Antonio Ledezma, Freddy Guevara and David Smolansky. On 5 April 2017, the Comptroller General of Venezuela notified Capriles that for 15 years, he would be prevented from participating in public office, due to his alleged misuse of public funds, a charge that Capriles denied.
Henrique CaprilesRamos Allup has in his head that he could be a presidential candidate. That is Maduro's candidate...
Eventually, the MUD coalition was banned from choosing a single candidate in late-January 2018, with the government only granting two opposition parties – Democratic Action and Justice First – the credentials to participate in the elections. Finally, Justice First was disqualified weeks later in early-February 2018 from the presidential race, only leaving Democratic Action and other minor opposition parties.
The actions by the government cleared the path for Henry Ramos Allup and his Democratic Action to gain popularity in the presidential elections. Ramos Allup was accused of "cozying up" to the ruling PSUV party during the recent regional elections. He has been criticized for his negotiations with the government. After many other opposition parties were disqualified, President Maduro singled out Ramos Allup and stated that he like to run against him.
PSUV
Due to the unpopularity of President Nicolás Maduro, potential candidates included former National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, Vice President Tareck El Aissami and National Constituent Assembly President Delcy Rodriguez. However, Maduro was eventually chosen to run as the party's presidential candidate.
Presidential campaigns
This article needs to be updated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (March 2018) |
Maduro
Nicolás Maduro, the successor of Hugo Chávez, is the President of Venezuela running for re-election after assuming the presidency in 2013. Maduro has denied that there is a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and says that Venezuelans dying from poor health is "exaggerated", blaming many shortcomings on the United States. Maduro made the campaign promise of creating a "new economy" in Venezuela.
The Bolivarian government also increased spending on populist policies during the campaign to help sway voters to support Maduro. Analysts have suggested that such policies would further exacerbate the negative effects of the crisis in Bolivarian Venezuela. Maduro also raised the possibility of an armed revolution if another government were to take power that wanted to hand the country’s "riches" to “imperialist” forces, stating "I would be the first one to raise the alarm, grab a gun and start an armed revolution with the people, if necessary".
Falcón
Henri Falcón is the former governor of Lara who left PSUV in 2010. His political positioning is seen by some as a good way to govern in-between the government and the opposition, though some Chavistas believe he is a "traitor" while some in the opposition think he is an infiltrator. Falcón was officially nominated for his candidacy by the Movement for Socialism on 26 February 2018.
On 2 April 2018, Falcón's security adviser Colonel Teodoro Campos was attacked by pro-government colectivos, with a head wound that left the deputy severly injured and later had him placed in an intensive care unit where he was intubated and placed on a ventilator.
Bertucci
Javier Bertucci, an evangelical pastor, announced his candidacy on February 18, 2018. He stressed to bring back the "values" of Venezuelans, stating that his church has cared for the poor in Venezuela. Bertucci is against abortion and believes same-sex partners should not adopt children, stating "I respect and love any person who has a different sexual orientation, but in a legal sense, I would have to tell them categorically that I would never support this." However, Bertucci has said that despite his "absolutely conservative" values, he would hold a referendum in Venezuela on whether to legalize abortion and same-sex marriage, stating that he would support the decisions of the people, "even those contrary to Christianity". Bertucci was one of the Venezuelan businessmen involved in the Panama Papers leak.
Quijada
Reinaldo Quijada (es), an electrical engineer who follows the chavista movement, stated he would take up the "revolutionary process" in his campaign and that "we are certainly opposed to the government of President Maduro, we are certainly opposed to the PSUV, but we are not opposed to the revolutionary process." Quijada and his party state that the PSUV and MUD should disappear while also believing "in political irreverence, in ethical coherence, in the eternal values of honesty, dignity, human solidarity and other immemorial human principles without which life itself has no meaning."
Ratti
Luis Alejandro Ratti is a Chavista businessman and evangelical pastor. He was formally part of the Hugo Chavez Bolivarian Front until he broke ranks with the Maduro government. During his campaign, Ratti stated he would "represent the people with chivalry, bravery, and without fear, guaranteeing that they are going to have a different path than the last twenty years."
Controversies
Announcement
The Venezuelan constitution established that the Electoral Branch, conformed by the National Electoral Council and its subordinate organisms, is corresponded of "the organizations, administration, direction and surveillance of all the acts related to the election of positions of representation of the public branches, as well as the referendums'". Despite of this, the Constituent Assembly issued a decree ordering the CNE to organize the presidential elections in April. The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory afirmed that "the decision announced by the CNE evidences once more the political bias of the electoral arbitrator" and that the CNE "gave a blow to the democratic plurality" impeding the opposition parties to participate in the presidential election and warned that 74 days are insufficient to guarantee the equality and transparency of the elections.
The Observatory pointed out that phases of the process such as the selection of new board members, the choosing of subordinate electoral organisms in public raffles, the deployment of extraordinary journeys of inscription, the update of the Electoral Registry in a broad span that allows the incorporation of the largest amount of Venezuelans, the maintenance of the voting machines, the appropriate implementation of technical audits that guarantee the proper functioning of the automated voting system and the organization of quality international missions would all be affected due to the lack of time.
The Electoral Citizen Network described as "irregular" the order of the Constituent Assembly to summon presidential elections before 30 April 2018, claiming that it is a violation of the constitution and civil rights. Like the 2017 municipal elections, the announcement was made before at least six months in advance to facilitate the lapses established in the electoral normative. Súmate and Voto Joven indicated that this would shorten the journeys terms of the Electoral Registry, generating a "hasty and little transparent process". The Electoral Citizen Network demanded the Electoral Branch the performance of special operatives for the inscription and update of voters in Venezuela and abroad.
Ramón Guillermo Aveledo, former executive secretary of the Democratic Unity Roundtable, compared the elections to the 1957 Venezuelan referendum of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez, reminding that article 82 the Organic Law for the Public Municipal Branch specifies the prohibition that the elections for municipal positions are carried out along with the national elections, and that the mandate of the National Assembly ends in 2021, meaning that shortening its period, something not provided in the constitution or the Venezuelan electoral laws, is "disolving it", which would be the same "that a coup d' etat" to the Legislative Branch.
Electoral schedule
Two weeks after the Constituent Assembly order and the failure of the dialogue between the government and the opposition in the Dominican Republic, the CNE fixed 22 April 2018 as the day of the elections in a press conference, also announcing 15 audits and giving some dates, but without formally disclosing the electoral schedule. After changing the date of the elections on 1 March, the CNE took 13 days to disclose the schedule. The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory and the Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy declared that the CNE has reduced the terms in each of the phases of the electoral schedule for the presidential elections since 2013, and in comparison to the 2006 and 2012 schedules with the 2018 one, the spans of the phases went from having up to three months to only two or three days in fundamental aspects, according to the last announcement of the elections.Both the inscription to the Electoral Registry as the candidates applications and the electoral campaign have suffered significant reductions. To determine the electoral districts, the CNE must have done it complying with the population estimates provided by the National Institute of Statistics of Venezuela [es], which before giving them to the Electoral Branch needs the approval of the National Assembly. This step was ommited and the CNE published the districts for the legislative councils at its discretion, without disclosing its process and without answering these complainsts.
On 26 March the Peace and Justice Center (Cepaz in Spanish) denounced that the CNE changed the schedule of the 20 May elections "clandestinely and surreptitiously", what constitutes "a new irregularity that prevents the adequate information about the electoral offers from being guaranteed and facilitated to the voters", referring to the modification made for the ballot choices by the political parties, electoral groups, indigenous organizations and own initiative carried out on 24 March and for the regional candidates, scheduled for 26 March in the 23 regional offices of the CNE. According to the Electoral Branch schedule published on 13 March, the choice on ballot for national organizations would be carried out on 21 March and in the case of the regional ones on 22 March, but each one was postponed between three and four days, reason why the Cepaz warned that with this "opaque and quiet modification of the electoral schedule" five days were removed from the production and distribution process of the invalid electoral ballots, "further diminishing the possibility of having voters informed".
The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory stressed in its report about the elections that the postulation of the presidential candidates were given for only three days in 2018, from 26 to 28 February, while the modification and sustitution of postulations, "the CNE enabled 118 days on 2012 and only 2 March in 2018 for this ocassion", and although the terms were changed to add the legislative councils this did not mean a further extension of the days because "16 activities were compressed to be carried out in only 17 days, a schedule in which no task lasted more than eight days". The electoral schedule did not include national observers nor international accompaniment, like the CNE did until 2015. After the signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees on 1 March by the political parties Great Patriotic Pole, Movimiento al Socialismo, Avanzada Progresista and COPEI, the United Nations was requested to head a electoral mission, but the organization refused after receiving a formal invitation and the visit of the principal candidates or their representatives.
Electoral Registry
The Venezuelan Electoral Registry determines the number of people that will vote and in it the voters that must comply with mandatory electoral service in electoral boards are chosen, as well as the regional, municipal and parochial boards for the elections. While in the 2012 presidential elections the CNE took two months to carry out the data update, migration and inscription of new voters journeys in the Electoral Registry, in the 2018 elections the voters only had ten days between 10 and 20 February according to the both the first 22 April and the definitive 20 May electoral schedules, both inside and abroud the country, and the audits to the data were shortened from months to a few days.
In 2012 more than 1 300 update of the Electoral Registry points were deployed on a national scale, but in 2018 less than half were opened, 531. The Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy estimated in the report The citizen observation of the electoral registry 2017 that at least 1 769 035 young voters were not inscribed in the Electoral Registry by December 2017. For the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, the "CNE has done little to encourage the inscription of these new voters in the registry with institutional campaigns, breaking the current electoral law that which obligates it to deploy inscription and update centers in 'sectors of difficult access and/or of highest population concentration' in all the national territory and in any moment of the year" according to article 33 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes [es], and that "what is needed for the citizen to exercise their right to vote is not being done". On 15 February president Maduro, without being the electoral authority, announced the extension for five days for the inscription in the electoral registry abroad and informed the opening of the Venezuelan consulate in Miami so that Venezuelans living in the city could make changes and participate. The second opening of the registry happened with the elections date change to 20 May and it was opened from 2 to 10 March. In theory, the registry allowed to update information or inscribe new voters for 24 days abroad the country and 19 in Venezuela, but electoral experts denounced obstacles for the inscription of Venezuelans abroad, because besides being insufficient it led to other obstacles that did not allow a massive assistance to embassies or consultares. The electoral registry abroad only increased by 7 028 voters, which does not represent even the 0.5 % of the Venezuelans estimated abroad, and nationally by 910 272 new voters, to locate itself in 20 759 809 voters. Voto Joven complained because the consultes did not work on holidays, only worked on office hours without enough time or information, as well as the requirement to ask for a permanent visa to those who live in the countries where the opening was formalized, even though to vote only the laminated identity card is needed.
The Observatory also denounced that "The ER of Venezuelans abroad has been in a sort of illegal suspension since 2012, a measure violatoryof the current electoral law" yand that according to the last report of the CNE on 30 April 2017, the Venezuelans with the right to vote abroad are only 101 595 voters, "a number much lower of the migrants with the right to vote" in comparison to the estimates of between 2 and 4 million Venezuelans abroad. Even though to vote only the laminated identity card is needed, passports in force, original birth certificates, visas, residence letters and other administrative requirements not covered by law were requested by consulates and embassies, preventing their participation in the elections.
Agreement of Electoral Guarantees
The signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees between three of the original five presidential candidates, Maduro, Falcón y Bertucci, was presented as an extension of the norms to the process when considering, among other aspects, the elimination of "red points" controlled by the chavismo, which after the agreement had to be farther away from voting centers, international observers and the return of the voting centers changed during the Constituent Assembly elections and the 2017 regional elections, what was presented as a concession of the Electoral Branch with parties, candidates and the citizenship. The agreement has been questioned and rejected by the NGOs Voto Joven, the Cepaz and the Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy. On 27 March, the Cepaz director Beatriz Borges declared that "the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees is a scam for the citizen since it covers points already established in the Law and that the CNE has not met". Despite that the presidential candidates Henri Falcón, Javier Bertucci and Luis Alejandro Ratti have denounced the violation of guarantees provded in the agreement, on 2 May the president of the CNE, Tibisay Lucena, contradicted the complaints and assured that the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees was "fulfilled in its entirety".
Campaigning
The presidential and elections and legislative councils campaign started on 22 April and ends on 17 May at midnight, according to the schedule approved by the CNE. However, candidates postulated for the presidency or the reelection have carried out activities with the electorate and have exposed proposals that will be executed in case of being elected, violating article 75 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes [es]. Francisco Castro, national coordinator of Súmate, pointed out that the CNE provided only 26 for the national campaign, explaining that the term "does not allow candidates to have enough time to promove their ideas and call for participation, so they are forced to anticipate their campaign. By tradition, the process lasts more than 60 days", and reminded that the CNE summoned with 80 days of anticipation an election of more than 500 positions, reducing the time of the activities. Equally, he indicated that the CNE does not regulate pre-campaign and claims that as long as there isn't an explicit call to vote the candidate cannot be sanctioned. Castro reminded that the pattern carried out since the government of Hugo Chávez is repeated, in which electoral campaign is made with public officials and governors are used to inaugurate works and make promises.
Ignacio Ávalos, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, and political scientist Luis Salamanca agreed that so far that until now a electoral environment or government project does not exist, but rather "a struggle to achieve power", stressing that electoral competition was suppressed and that a electoral campaign was designed for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela convenience. Salamanca asserted that "Maduro distributes benefits to obtain votes and Falcón offers benefits in the future in exchange for votes. None has enough weigh to mobilize the country electorally".
Public opinion
In a January 2018 poll surrounding the presidential election, Meganalisis stated that only 29% of respondents desired to vote in the elections and 72.5% stated that they did not trust the CNE electoral body. Those who chose not to vote had various reasons; 45% believed that even if they voted, hunger would continue, 20% believed it was a "waste of time" and 13% believed that the opposition had betrayed the country. As for the support of political parties, 81% stated that they were not part of any party, 12% were part of the government PSUV party and 6% supported the opposition-led MUD.
According to Meganalisis an April 2018 poll found that 65.4% of respondents believed that Henri Falcón was working in collaboration with President Maduro to create the fraudulent appearance of a legitimate democratic election.
- Presidential election
Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Maduro | Falcón | Bertucci | Quijada | Ratti | Others | None/Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2-18 Apr 2018 | Hinterlaces | 1,050 | 51% | 28% | 16% | - | - | - | 5% | 23.0% |
18 Apr 2018 | Meganalisis | 1,050 | 15.3% | 6.2% | 0.9% | 0.07% | 0.05% | - | 77.1% | 61.8% |
11 Apr 2018 | Datanalisis | - | 32.0% | 37.0% | 14.0% | - | - | - | 17.0% | 5.0% |
9 Apr 2018 | Datincorp | 1,996 | 22.0% | 34.0% | 9% | - | - | 2.0% | 33.0% | 12.0% |
8 Apr 2018 | Datanalisis | 800 | 34.0% | 40.0% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0% |
19–29 Mar 2018 | Datanalisis | 800 | 34.3% | 41.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.1% |
27 Feb–4 Mar 2018 | Meganalisis | 1,090 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.01% | - | 82.5% | 68.8% |
19 Feb 2018 | Datincorp | 1,499 | 28.0% | 31.0% | - | - | - | 31.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% |
1–14 Feb 2018 | Datanalisis | 1,000 | 26.1% | 38.0% | - | - | - | 40,4% (Leopoldo López) |
- | 2.1% |
24 Jan–13 Feb 2018 | Hercon | 1,200 | 19.5% | 6.9% | - | - | - | 21.0% (Lorenzo Mendoza) |
26.8% | 5.8% |
8 Feb 2018 | Consultores 30.11 | - | 32% | 10.5% | - | - | - | 25% | 24.7% | 21.5% |
25 Jan–5 Feb 2018 | Ivad | 1,200 | 17.6% | 23.6% | - | - | - | 13.5% | 10.6% | 6.0% |
22–27 Jan 2018 | Meganalisis | 1,120 | 9.4% | - | - | - | - | 28.7% (Lorenzo Mendoza) |
52.3% | 23.6% |
Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Sample size | MUD | GPPSB | AP | Others | Undecided | Lead | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 Jan 2018 | MUD disqualified | ||||||||||
10 Jan 2018 | Datincorp | 1,009 | 55% | 21% | - | - | 4% | 34.0% | |||
10 Jan 2018 | Datincorp | 1,009 | 59% | 19% | - | - | - | 40.0% | |||
14 Dec 2017 | Delphos | - | 52.8% | 27.7% | - | - | 10.6% | 25.1% | |||
7 Dec 2017 | Venebarometro | 1,200 | 46.3% | 28.6% | - | - | 25.1% | 17.7% | |||
10 Nov–23 Nov 2017 | Datanalisis | 997 | 44.4% | 9.0% | - | - | - | 35.4% | |||
20–29 Aug 2017 | Hercon | 1,200 | 56.1% | 15.6% | - | 3.3% | 25.1% | 40.5% | |||
10–17 May 2017 | UCV | 1,200 | 52% | 14% | - | 22% | 12% | 38% | |||
28 Jan–8 Feb 2017 | Venebarometro | 1,200 | 44.8% | 25.8% | - | 23.4% | 6.1% | 29.0% | |||
20 Jan–6 Feb 2017 | Hercon | 1,200 | 55.4% | 19.9% | - | 16.0% | 8.6% | 35.5% | |||
29 Nov–12 Dec 2016 | Datanalisis | 1,200 | 58% | 14.4% | - | - | 9.6% | 43.6% | |||
15–30 Nov 2016 | Hercon | 1,300 | 53.13% | 22.1% | - | 15.53% | 9.13% | 31.03% | |||
12–24 Nov 2016 | Venebarometro | 1,200 | 52.8% | 26.5% | - | 14.4% | 6.3% | 26.3% | |||
20–24 Jul 2016 | Meganalisis | 1,220 | 66.1% | 23.2% | - | - | 10.6% | 52.5% | |||
1–16 Apr 2016 | Hercon | 1,200 | 73.2% | 20.7% | - | - | - | 42.9% | |||
5–15 Sep 2015 | Venebarometro | 1,200 | 70.9% | 17.0% | - | - | 12.1% | 53.9% | |||
8–16 Aug 2015 | Ivad | 1,200 | 69.2% | 18.1% | - | - | 18.1% | 51.1% | |||
29 Sep 2014 | Ivad | 800 | 61.1% | 26.8% | - | - | 12.1 | 34.3% | |||
4 Jun 2014 | Hercon | - | 62.5% | 27.1% | - | - | 10.4% | 35.4% | |||
10–22 Apr 2014 | Venebarometro | 1,200 | 49.6% | 34.6% | - | - | 15.8% | 15% | |||
10–26 Mar 2014 | ICS | 1,400 | 33.7% | 55.8% | - | - | 9.2% | 22.1% | |||
14 Feb–14 Mar 2014 | Keller | 1,200 | 48% | 34% | - | 3% | 10% | 14% | |||
19–26 Jul 2013 | Ivad | - | 45.1% | 39.3% | - | - | 15.7% | 5.8% | |||
17 Jun–6 Jul 2013 | Varianzas | 2,000 | 50.0% | 44.6% | - | - | 5.4% | 5.4% | |||
2–11 May 2013 | Hercon | 1,300 | 54.8% | 40.4% | - | - | 4.8% | 14.4% | |||
28 Apr–5 May 2013 | Ivad | 1,200 | 45.8% | 40.8% | - | - | - | 5% |
Reactions
Domestic
The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) opposition coalition confirmed on 21 February 2018 that it would not participate in the elections since they "do not comply with democratic conditions or guarantees". Movimiento Estudiantil rejected the elections through a public statement for being announced "outside of the lapses established by our Carta Magna" and for being "requested by an unconstitutional, incompetent body erected on the blood of hundreds of Venezuelans", considering that the elections do not for Venezuelans to choose, "but perpetuate the hell and the misery lived today", explaining that it would not participate in the process and exhorting the political leaders to not attend to the ballot boxes to not endorse the process.
The NGO Foro Penal decided not to endorse the announcement of the presidential elections based on the fact that the Constituent Assembly does not have constitutional faculties to summon an election because it is only empowered to draft a new constitution, assuring that it would be commiting an usurpation of functions when calling to elections and that the announcement is violatory of the right of the Venezuelans to choose in valid and fair conditions attached to the constitution. The Venezuelan Association of Political Consultants (Avencopol) pointed out in a public statement that the presidential election "does not guarantee the free, direct and secret vote of all the Venezuelans", declaring that "it equally does not offer the transparency and equality that guarantee a fair participation of the political actorts and the respect to the sovereign will of the citizens" and that "cayying out an electoral process in such circumstances, far from resolving a grave situation of governability that our nation goes through, will just end in its aggravation". The association suscribed the complaint with other associations, including the International, Latinamerican, Argentine, Ecuatorian and Mexican Associations of political consultants, and called for the civil society to not participate in the elections.
International
Supranational bodies
High Commissioner Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein of the United Nations Human Rights Council stated that the elections "does not in any way fulfill minimal conditions for free and credible elections". On 23 March 2018 a United Nations official informed that the organization would not offer electoral assistance in the elections, without explaining the motives. The spokesperson Farhan Haq informed that a letter was sent to Venezuelan authorities regarding the request of electoral experts, but did not explain the content.
Prior to the elections, the Lima Group, with its participating nations of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Saint Lucia, stated that they would not recognize the results of the presidential elections due to the perceived lack of transparency.
The Organization of American States (OAS) approved with 19 votes on 23 February 2018, in an extraordinary session supported by its Secretary General Luis Almagro, a resolution that asks the Venezuelan government to reconsider the announcement of the presidential elections and to present a new electoral schedule to make possible the performance of elections with all the guarantees needed. The countries that supported the resolution were Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia the United States and Uruguay.
On 8 February, the European Parliament approved a resolution with 480 votes in favor, 51 against and 70 abstentions demanding the applications of sanctions against President Nicolás Maduro, Vice President Tareck el Aissami and other officials, considering them "responsible for the aggravation of the crisis. The European Union, through the European Parliament, also ruled that it would not recognize the 20 May elections and called the electoral process "fraudulent". Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in a joint declaration in the name of 28 European countries, said "We deeply regret that elections were summoned without a broad agreement of its schedule nor of the conditions for a inclusive and credible electoral process". On 3 May 2018, the European Parliament called for the immediate suspension of the 20 May election until "free and fair elections were held on a schedule agreed upon with the participation of all relevant actors and political parties".
Governments
The governments of Argentina, Canada, Colombia and France directly criticized the disqualification of the MUD opposition coalition and the lack of an advanced notice to the election date, calling such actions by the Venezuelan government antidemocratic. Argentina's president Mauricio Macri declared that "Maduro says he will carry out presidential elections making the world believe they're democratic but he does not allow the opposition to participate … Argentina will not recognize those results”. The Canadian government released a statement declaring that “Canada rejects the regime's unilateral decision to have presidential elections in Venezuela in the year's first trimester. The decision of the Supreme Tribunal makes it impossible to have democratic, transparent and credible elections”. The Canadian embassy assured that the postponement of the elections would not change the situation, insisting that a democracy and free elections cannot exist in the context where there are political prisoners, free press limitations and house arrest for opposition leaders. Chilean president Sebastián Piñera said “no country that respects democracy should recognize these elections.” The Chilean foreign minister Heraldo Muñoz assured that it was a "enourmous step back" the decision in late 2017 that "the parties that did not participate in the previous municipal elections could not participate in the presidential elections”. Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos reiterated that Colombia would not recognize the results in what he defined as an "unjust" election. Costa Rica backed the OAS pronouncement and stressed "Cotsta Rica joins the call for the Venezuelan government to implement the necessary measures to prevent the aggravationsof the humanitarian eituation, including the acceptance of the assistance offered by the international community"
Panama's vicepresident Isabel Saint Malo indicated that there are no minimal conditions in the country to have elections in a democratic scope. Paraguay's foreign minister Eladio Loizaga stated that the presidential elections in Venezuela are not a "synonym of democracy" as long there are "disqualified opposition parties and political prisoners" With the support of the Lima Group, the Peruvian foreign minister Cayetana Aljovín informed that the presence of President Maduro in the 8th Summit of the Americas "would not be welcome in said encounter", quoting the 2001 Quebec Declaration, which states that "the rupture of the democracy constitutes an insuperable obstacle for the participation of a State in the Summit of the Americas". Uruguay's foreign minister Rodolfo Nin Novoa reflected saying "Would Uruguay go to elections with jailed political leaders? Would it go with a judicial branch that responds to the orders of the executive branch with proscribed parties? I think not, and what we don't want for ourselves we can't wish it for others". Spain's foreign minister Alfonso Dastis expressed that “if the opposition's passive suffrage rights are restricted, it does not seem that clean, fair and even elections can be carried out”. The United States Deparment of State pointed out in a statement that the presidential elections "do not have the agreement of all the political parties and limit the capacity of the persons to participate in the elections".
Bolivia and Cuba, have supported Venezuela in the Summit of the Americas, criticizing the stance taken by the United States. Evo Morales, the president of Bolivia, has stated that "the main threat against democracy, against peace, against freedom ... against multilateralism is the United States" and the Cuban foreign minister, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla said “the United States’ moral vacuum cannot be, is not, a reference for Latin America and the Caribbean" whilst claiming that efforts to not recognise the upcoming elections were “completely undemocratic”. Russia has pledged support for the elections and Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry has stated the goal of US-sponsored sanctions "is to provoke a debt crisis and as a consequence worsen the socio-economic situation … to create the bases for widespread popular discontent.” Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the former Prime Minister of Spain and the president of the Advisory Board of the Institute for Cultural Diplomacy has criticised the approach of nations like the United States and the Venezuelan opposition saying sarcastically that "We all celebrate dialogue, but not with president Maduro, who was democratically elected" and that "there is no other way out for Venezuela other than dialogue and consensus".
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Elections and referendums in Venezuela | |
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Parliamentary elections | |
Regional elections | |
Municipal elections | |
Constituent Assemblies | |
Referendums |