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In the final debate between the leaders of the major parties (CDA, PvdA, SP, VVD, PvdV, GL and CU) it was pointed out that the seated government lost 9 seats and the left wing parties (PdvA, Sp, GL, PvdD) won 8 seats, which was interpreted as a signal from the voters that government policy should be more social. The big winner on the right was PvdV, but when asked if any of the other parties would be willing to enter in a coalition with PvdV, no-one responded. When asked about the possibility of a CDA-PvdA-CU coalition, PvdA leader Bos responded that during the campaign the differences between CDA and PvdA have turned out to be rather big<!-- "afgelopen weken en maanden zijn de verschillen met name tussen PvdA en CDA erg groot gebleken" --> and that the big winner SP also deserves a place at the negotiating table. SP leader Marijnisse responded to this that the SP had never excluded CDA as a coalition partner, but that the CDA of the previous cabinet is not one that the SP can enter in a coalition with.<!-- "coalitiebesprekingen met dit CDA, zoals we dat de afgelopen jaren hebben gekend, ik denk niet dat dat zal leiden tot een coalitie waartoe de SP kan toetreden" --> That, combined with the programme of the CDA and the list of CDA mp's would constitute many 'road bumps', but he would nevertheless be willing to enter talks about a CDA-PvdA-SP coalition.<ref>{{nl icon}}{{cite news|title=SP: kabinet met CDA, PvdA onderzoeken|url=http://www.nos.nl/nos/artikelen/2006/11/art000001C70F10824DCA01.html|publisher=NOS Nieuws|date=]}}</ref> | In the final debate between the leaders of the major parties (CDA, PvdA, SP, VVD, PvdV, GL and CU) it was pointed out that the seated government lost 9 seats and the left wing parties (PdvA, Sp, GL, PvdD) won 8 seats, which was interpreted as a signal from the voters that government policy should be more social. The big winner on the right was PvdV, but when asked if any of the other parties would be willing to enter in a coalition with PvdV, no-one responded. When PvdV leader Wilders called this a ], VVD leader Rutte responed fiercely, saying that the VVD does not exclude any possibilities but sees too many differences with the one-issue party that the PvdV is. | ||
<br>When asked about the possibility of a CDA-PvdA-CU coalition, PvdA leader Bos responded that during the campaign the differences between CDA and PvdA have turned out to be rather big<!-- "afgelopen weken en maanden zijn de verschillen met name tussen PvdA en CDA erg groot gebleken" --> and that the big winner SP also deserves a place at the negotiating table. SP leader Marijnisse responded to this that the SP had never excluded CDA as a coalition partner, but that the CDA of the previous cabinet is not one that the SP can enter in a coalition with.<!-- "coalitiebesprekingen met dit CDA, zoals we dat de afgelopen jaren hebben gekend, ik denk niet dat dat zal leiden tot een coalitie waartoe de SP kan toetreden" --> That, combined with the programme of the CDA and the list of CDA mp's would constitute many 'road bumps', but he would nevertheless be willing to enter talks about a CDA-PvdA-SP coalition.<ref>{{nl icon}}{{cite news|title=SP: kabinet met CDA, PvdA onderzoeken|url=http://www.nos.nl/nos/artikelen/2006/11/art000001C70F10824DCA01.html|publisher=NOS Nieuws|date=]}}</ref> | |||
== Trivia == | == Trivia == |
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The Dutch general election of 22 November 2006, necessary after the fall of the Second Balkenende cabinet, has seen a victory for the Christian-democratic CDA with 41 seats, a loss of 3 seats, while the biggest increase of seats in the Parliament, up 17 to 26, was for the Socialist Party (SP). The social-democratic PvdA (Labour) lost 10 seats and now holds 32 seats. The other parties that formed the cabinet Balkenende II have also lost seats; the liberal party VVD lost 6 seats and now hold 22 seats, whereas the social-liberal D66 have been reduced to 3 seats, a loss of 3 seats. The result for the newly created right-wing Party for Freedom (PvdV) of former VVD MP Geert Wilders was 9 seats. The Party for the Animals (PvdD), aided by an intense radio and television campaign by Dutch celebrities, gained 2 seats.
Formation of a new cabinet will be difficult, as no two parties can form a majority in parliament together. The most feasible result would be a Christian center-left cabinet of CDA-PvdA-CU. On the other hand, several parties are indicating that the largest winner, the SP, should be part of the cabinet, which would most likely be possible by a coalition of CDA-PvdA-SP.
Issues at stake
As in the elections of 2003, the most important question of the elections was which one of the two largest parties, the PvdA or the CDA, would become the larger. The largest party will have the initiative in the cabinet formation talks. Furthermore, if it becomes part of the cabinet, the largest party in practice always supplies the prime minister. Only when the largest party is kept outside the cabinet do other parties supply the prime minister, but this has happened only three times since WWII, lastly in 1982. The media have framed the elections as a 'Clash of the Titans' between prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende (CDA) and candidate prime minister Wouter Bos (PvdA). The CDA has, unlike it did in 2003, not yet expressed that it prefers to govern with the liberal VVD, although the VVD is part of the coalition Balkenende III and prefers another coalition with the CDA. The PvdA has consciously left its options open, expressing no preference for its three options: a centre-left CDA-PvdA coalition, a purple VVD-PvdA coalition and left-wing PvdA-GL-SP coalition. The strong rise in the polls for the SP is generally explained as a tactical move of former PvdA voters, to force that party to form a left wing coalition.
Climate change received little attention in the media and from politicians, but polls like 21minuten showed that voters find this a major issue, so several organisations rated the parties on environmental issues, largely focusing on climate change. Results varied but the parties that were overall considered most environmentally friendly were GroenLinks (GL - GreenLeft), ChristenUnie and SP, followed at some distance by PvdA. According to the polls, this much talked about 'Christian left' coalition might only just get a majority.
Events leading up to the election
In the month before the fall of the cabinet two parties held internal elections on who would lead their parties in the next elections, which were scheduled for 2007. In the internal election of the liberal VVD the more liberal secretary of state for science and higher education Mark Rutte beat the more conservative minister without portfolio for immigration and integration Rita Verdonk. In the internal election of the social-liberal D66 the more radical democratic minister without portfolio for government reform Alexander Pechtold beat the more social-liberal chair of the parliamentary party Lousewies van der Laan.
The next Dutch general election was originally scheduled for May 15 2007 as the parliament was to be dissolved on April 2 2007. However, it was announced that elections would be held on 22 November 2006, as Prime Minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, offered the resignation of the cabinet on June 30 2006 after one of coalition partners, D66, withdrew their support from the cabinet the day before over Rita Verdonk's treatment of the Ayaan Hirsi Ali case. A new cabinet continued as a care taker cabinet until the elections.
After the fall of the cabinet several new small right-wing parties announced that they would run. Most of these parties either came out of the remains of Pim Fortuyn's List Pim Fortuyn (LPF) or the liberal VVD. In the period before the elections the small right was characterised by a chaos of secessions, new formations and party switches. Former Rotterdam alderman Marco Pastors and member of parliament for the LPF Joost Eerdmans formed Eén NL. Party for Freedom is led by former VVD MP Geert Wilders. Party for the Netherlands led by former LPF minister Hilbrand Nawijn. Nawijn and Wilders currently form one man parties in parliament, while Eerdmans has formed the "Group Eerdmans-Van Schijndel" along with former VVD MP Anton van Schijndel. Two other LPF politicians have formed one man fractions but they have not formed their own party: Gerard van As, former leader of the LPF, and Gonny van Oudenallen, also former LPF. Margot Kraneveldt left the LPF, returned her seat to the party and joined the social-democratic PvdA. Meanwhile the LPF announced that it would also run the next elections, under the name "Fortuyn". The party is lead by Olaf Stuger, who served as member of parliament between in the period 2002-2003 and returned to parliament in 2006, to replace Gerard van As.
Both Femke Halsema, leader of the GreenLeft, and Jan Marijnissen, leader of the Socialist Party (SP) advocated a left-wing bloc of SP, GreenLeft and the social-democratic PvdA. This idea was called the "Left-wing Spring" (Linkse Lente), a term first used by the GreenLeft. Wouter Bos, leader of the PvdA, always distanced himself from this idea, claiming that the PvdA should not bind itself to a particular party before the elections. In 2004 and 2005 the polls indeed indicated that the united left would gain a majority in the Tweede Kamer. The polls predicted two head-to-head races. One between the PvdA and ruling CDA and another between the left-wing bloc (PvdA, SP, GreenLeft) and the right-wing bloc (CDA, VVD) with neither gaining a majority. Early November polls however showed that the CDA was gaining on and surpassing the PvdA. Mid-November polls indicated that the PvdA was bleeding votes to the SP while the CDA remained more or less stable. The left- and right-wing blocks remained in an equilibrium with neither side gaining enough votes for an overall majority.
Several prominent politicians announced they would step down before the elections. Some commentators spoke of a large exodus. Within the liberal VVD former chair of the parliamentary party Jozias van Aartsen announced he would retire, as did his vice-chair Bibi de Vries, Frans Weisglas the current speaker of parliament, and ministers Hans Hoogervorst, Sybilla Dekker, state secretary Melanie Schultz van Haegen and Henk van Hoof. Within the CDA ministers Cees Veerman and Karla Peijs announced they would not return, as did state secretary Clemence Ross. Both D66's current chairperson Lousewies van der Laan and her predecessor Boris Dittrich also announced they would not return.
Taxes on pensions
Several months before the elections, Wouter Bos, the leader of Labour Party, announced that he wanted to tax the elderly pension in such a way that rich elderly would pay more taxes on their pensions than poor elderly. The Dutch pension systems consists out of government supplied (AOW) and mandatory self-saved pensions. It is the latter portion Bos wanted to tax progressively. The proposal led to considerable controversy, both outside and within Bos' own party. Former minister and de Volkskrant columnist Marcel van Dam wrote a critical column on 22 june concerning Bos' proposal. The second man of the Christian Democratic Appeal Maxime Verhagen used soundbites from the proposal continually to emphasize that the PvdA was an unreliable partner for the elderly. Bos later moderated his plans: only new cases would pay taxes over their pension. The image of Bos as an unreliable partner, taxing elderly and changing his plans opportunistically remained, denting Bos' popularity.
Turkish-Dutch candidates and the Armenian Genocide
On September 26, 2006, a candidate for the Labour Party, Erdinç Saçan, was removed by his party, because he would not hold to the party stance that the Armenian Genocide was caused by the Young Turks. That same evening, the CDA announced that two of their candidates, Ayhan Tonca and Osman Elmaci, have been removed as well, because of the same issue. Both parties agreed that all their members should openly conform to the party's point of view on this sensitive human rights issue. The sensitivity over this issues was underlined when the speaker of the Turkish parliament, Bülent Arınç, in response threatened the Netherlands with diplomatic action over this incident. Namik Tan, spokesperson for the Turkish Department of Foreign Affairs said that "we are deeply worried about the one-sided approach of our ally Netherlands’ political parties on the so-called Armenian genocide as this puts a limit on the freedom of expression."
Greenpeace interference with CDA party congress
The CDA party held its party congress on September 30, 2006. During a speech of parliamentary chairman Maxime Verhagen, activists of Greenpeace rolled down a large sign saying "CDA chooses for 240,000 years of nuclear waste," referring to the news a day earlier that the CDA junior minister of the environment Pieter van Geel is open to new possibilities for nuclear energy in the Netherlands. Four activists were apprehended by the police afterwards. Minister of the Interior, Johan Remkes (VVD), said in parliament on October 3, that organisations that disturb political meetings, might be struck from their government subsidy. He called the Greenpeace action "totally irresponsible behaviour." Greenpeace in reaction stated that it does not receive any government money, and that they would like to talk with Remkes about "the safety of CDA congresses and nuclear power plants." On November 20, 2006, a similar Greenpeace action took place at a CDA event, this time a speech by Prime Minister Balkenende, who remarked that that was an indication that CDA matters and consequently ignored the action.
News of possible mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners in 2003
De Volkskrant newspaper published a story just a week before the election saying that Dutch soldiers "tortured" Iraqi prisoners in Iraq, back in 2003. Defense minister Henk Kamp ordered an immediate (re-)investigation into matter, but said earlier information about this case did not result in the military police and Dutch public prosecutors to start a criminal investigation. Left-wing parties, such as the Labour Party (PvdA), which demanded an immediate parliamentary investigation were later rebuked by military commander Dick Berlijn, who stated that the left-wing oppposition tarnished the reputation of the Dutch Department of Defense by their inscriminating language, while nothing happened in Iraq. Mark Rutte, leader of the VVD, even went as far as to say that this Iraq story was a manipulation in order to influence the elections. In an open letter to De Volkskrant on the day of the Dutch elections, defense minister Kamp said the news about possible mistreatment was deceptive, and that the editor of De Volkskrant should feel being misused by the sources for this story. The Department of Defense in the mean time is demanding a rectification of the story published by De Volkskrant.
Burqa ban
On November 17, 2006, the cabinet announced that it would seek to outlaw the burqa and other face-covering clothing in public. Minister of Integration Rita Verdonk stated "The Cabinet finds it undesirable that face-covering clothing — including the burqa — is worn in public places for reasons of public order, security and protection of citizens".. The opposition Partij van de Arbeid, or Labour Party, called the law an "election ploy", and a Muslim leader described it as "a big law for a small problem".
Floating voters
The day before the elections, about one third of the electorate had not yet made up their minds, resulting in polls giving strongly varying results. For this reason campaigning continued on election day itself. An aspect of this was tactical voting, with SP telling PvdA voters that a strong SP would force PvdA to form a left-wing coalition, VVD saying something similar to CDA voters concerning a right-wing coalition, PvdA and CDA saying they need to be strong to prevent the other party from forming or dominating a coalition and ChristenUnie saying it has the best cards to participate in any coalition. Shortly before the elections, PvdA leader Bos showed himself more interested in the much talked about left-wing coalition of PvdA, SP and Groenlinks (possibly with ChristenUnie), which he had refused to talk about for months.
Voting issues
Voting machine controversy
A report by action group Wij vertrouwen stemcomputers niet (We don't trust voting computers) details serious security flaws in the Nedap voting machines used in the election. The report was made public which was described by the national TV program EenVandaag . It proved to be surprisingly easy to open the case of the voting machines. The inner casing around the electronics was only protected by a very simple lock. Thus replacements of software and even hardware were relatively easily possible (by a simple memory chip swap, meaning that the memory that holds the voting data is not encrypted). Voting machines manufactured by Nedap cover 90% of the voters in the Netherlands. Another machine is made by SDU and called "NewVote". It is based on a PC and uses a touchscreen instead of buttons. Both systems lack a paper trail, thus, when doubting the outcome a non-electronic recount is not possible. Only ten small districts still use paper and pencil.
Wij vertrouwen stemcomputers niet has threatened to bring minister Atzo Nicolaï to court since they are not convinced by his assurances that there will be no fraud in the upcoming election. In response to the allegations, Nicolaï introduced new security measures for the voting machines. . Currently Nedap is checking all its machines for tampering, is installing new chips and software that is less easily hacked, and seals the machines with an unique metal seal . Based on inspections, on October 30 the government decided that there was a problem with SDU voting machines, due to the fact that within a radius of 10 metres the machines could be wirelessly monitored, so that these machines could not guarantee anonymity of voting to a sufficient degree. These machines, which are in use in 35 municipalities, including Amsterdam, have to be improved or replaced with an alternative before the elections . Many municipalities, including Amsterdam, decided to switch to the traditional pen and red pencil method of voting instead of the SDU machines.. Machines made by Nedap are still in use.
Experiments
Two experiments will be conducted during this elections: "Stemmen in een Willekeurig Stemlokaal (SWS) ('voting in a random polling-booth') and "Kiezen Op Afstand" (KOA) ('remote voting'), also called the experiment with internetstemmen (internet voting).
Public debates
Radio debate
The first public election debate between the leaders of the seven largest parties was held on October 29, 2006, on public radio. Mark Rutte, whose VVD is junior partner in the third Balkenende cabinet of CDA prime-minister Jan Peter Balkenende, was worried that the CDA will choose for a coalition with the PvdA after the elections, as this, at the time of the debate, was the only two-party coalition possible according to polls. Balkenende, however, kept his options open, and did not rule out a coalition with the PvdA. The PvdA's Wouter Bos stated that he will not become a deputy prime-minister in case Balkenende leads a CDA-PvdA coalition. He will then remain as chairman of the parliamentary party.
RTL 4 debate
This debate took place on November 3, 2006 and was televised by RTL4. Participants were Jan Peter Balkenende and Wouter Bos. Balkenende focused on his achievements the last four years, stating "We are much better off than four years ago. We were behind in Europe and now we’re ahead but our work is not yet done". Bos felt that under Balkenende the gap between rich and poor had grown, stating "What have you asked of the wealthiest? Everybody has been asked to dig into their pockets to contribute to the economy". In an opinion poll conducted by TNS-Nipo following the televised debate, 50 procent of respondents thought Wouter Bos won the debate, against 46 procent for Jan Peter Balkenende.
NOS Jeugdjournaal debate
This debate was broadcast on November 11, 2006 and was televised by the Jeugdjournaal (YouthNews) of the NOS. The debate was aimed at children from 8 to 14 years of age. Participants were top-candidates from the four parties leading the polls: Jan Peter Balkenende (CDA), Wouter Bos (PvdA), Mark Rutte (VVD) and Jan Marijnissen (SP).. A poll among the young watchers after the debate showed that the Dutch children preferred Wouter Bos as the next prime minister (46%), before Marijnissen (26%), Balkenende (22%) and Mark Rutte (6%).
EenVandaag debate
This debate took place on November 15, 2006 and was organised by EenVandaag. Participants were Jan-Peter Balkenende, Wouter Bos, Mark Rutte, Jan Marijnissen , Femke Halsema and André Rouvoet. . According to an opinion poll following the debate, Jan Marijnissen won the debate.
NOS debates
- 21 November (NOS): two consecutive debates; the first between the leaders of the smaller parties in the polls, the second between leaders of the projected six largests parties:
- Alexander Pechtold (D66), Bas van der Vlies (SGP), Olaf Stuger (List Pim Fortuyn), Marco Pastors (One NL), Geert Wilders (PvdV) and Marianne Thieme (Partij voor de Dieren), at 19:05
- Jan Peter Balkenende (CDA), Wouter Bos (PVDA), Mark Rutte (VVD), Jan Marijnissen (SP), Femke Halsema (GreenLeft) and André Rouvoet (Christenunie) at 20:30.
National summary
Template:Netherlands general election, 2006
Parties and top candidates
Over 20 parties registered in one or more districts. Only those having a fair chance of being elected are listed here.
- Christian Democratic Appeal (Christen-Democratisch Appèl), led by current Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende;
- Christian Union (ChristenUnie), led by André Rouvoet;
- Democrats 66 (Democraten 66), led by former Minister for Government Reform & Kingdom Relations Alexander Pechtold after the 2006 D66 leadership election;
- GreenLeft (GroenLinks), led by Femke Halsema;
- Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid), led by Wouter Bos;
- Fortuyn (Fortuyn previously List Pim Fortuyn), led by Olaf Stüger;
- Party for the Animals (Partij voor de Dieren), led by Marianne Thieme;
- People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie), led by Mark Rutte, who was elected in an internal election;
- Political Reformed Party (Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij), led by Bas van der Vlies;
- Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij), led by Jan Marijnissen;
- Party for Freedom (Partij voor de Vrijheid a.k.a. Groep Wilders), led by Geert Wilders.
- One NL, led by Marco Pastors
Turnout
As voting has been voluntary in the Netherlands since the elections of 1971, not all voters exercise their right to vote. Thus, the turnout is always significantly less than 100%. Parliamentary elections score between 70% and 90% turnout, with the 2002 election having a 79% turnout.
Of the estimated 600,000 Dutch citizens living abroad (about 5% of all eligible voters), who have to register to be allowed to cast their vote, only 30,000 (about 0.3% of the voters) registered. Due to this low rate of registration, votes of the Dutch living abroad will have a negligeable effect on the outcome of the elections.
Results
In the Netherlands there are three agencies that conduct frequent polls throughout the year (usually weekly). There is usually a small difference which may be due to different sampling and surveying methods applied. From November 1st the 'Politieke Barometer' started with two polls each week, and from November 13th they increased the frequency to daily polls.
The last polls prior to the election of the Politieke Barometer , the poll by NOVA and Interview-NSS, the TNS-NIPO polls by RTL4 , and the poll by Maurice de Honds' peil.nl yield the following results:
Party | 2003 | Politieke Barometer | Peil.nl | TNS-NIPO | Election results (after 99.2% of the votes tallied) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | (%) | (seats) | Nov 21 2006 (seats) | Nov 21 2006 (seats) | Exit polls (seats) | Nov 20 2006 (seats) | Exit polls (seats) | (%) | (seats) |
CDA | 28.6 | 44 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 41 | 38 | 41 (-3) | |
PvdA | 27.3 | 42 | 37 | 38 | 35 | 31 | 34 | 32 (-10) | |
VVD | 17.9 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 22 (-6) | |
SP | 6.3 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 32 | 30 | 26 (+17) | |
Fortuyn | 5.7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (-8) | |
GL | 5.1 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 (-1) | |
D66 | 4.1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 (-3) | |
CU | 2.1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 (+3) | |
SGP | 1.6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 (±0) | |
PvdV | DNR | - | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 (+9) | |
PvdD | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 (+2) | |
EénNL | DNR | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (±0) | |
Others | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (±0) |
Possible coalitions
Possible coalitions | Orientation | 2003 (seats) | Election results 22 November 2006 (seats) - forecast 24h+ |
---|---|---|---|
CDA-VVD | (centre-right) | 72 | 63 |
CDA-VVD-D66 | (centre-right) | 78 | 66 |
CDA-VVD-D66-GL-CU | (christian liberal) | 89 | 79 |
CDA-VVD-GL-CU | (christian liberal) | 83 | 76 |
CDA-VVD-PvdV-CU | (christian liberal) | 75 | 78 |
CDA-VVD-SP | (chr. left-right) | 81 | 88 |
CDA-PvdA | (centre-left) | 86 | 73 |
CDA-PvdA-VVD | (chr. left-right) | 114 | 95 |
CDA-PvdA-SP | (christian left) | 95 | 99 |
CDA-PvdA-CU | (chr. centre-left) | 92 | 79 |
CDA-PvdA-GL | (christian left) | 94 | 80 |
PvdA-SP-GL | (left-wing) | 59 | 65 |
PvdA-SP-GL-CU | (left-wing) | 62 | 71 |
PvdA-SP-GL-CU-D66-PvdD | (left-wing extended) | 68 | 76 |
PvdA-VVD-D66 | (Purple) | 76 | 57 |
PvdA-VVD-SP | (left-liberal) | 79 | 80 |
PvdA-VVD-GL-CU-PvdD-D66 | (left-liberal) | 87 | 72 |
Current minority cabinet
Formed after 2003 elections, fell in June 2006
Formed coalition after 2006 elections
Bold numbers indicate a majority coalition
Traditionally, the biggest party starts negotiations, and that was CDA this time. However, some reasoned that considering the fact that SP was the biggest winner in terms of increased size, that party should also be considered as a partner. ChristenUnie is a conservative centre-left party that has kept all options open (provided it is without VVD's Rita Verdonk) and is therefore a likely candidate. CDA-PvdA-CU was by analists mentioned as the most likely first option to be looked into. However, ChristenUnie can be seen as left-wing party in subjects as immigration, social welfare, and many more subjects, but in subjects like same-sexmarriage, euthanasia, drugs-policy and abortion, the ChristenUnie is very conservative. At the same time, the PvdA is mostly been seen as progressive left-wing party. The CDA is a centre-conservative party. So if this coalition will emerge, the PvdA is the only progressive party in this combination. And the most Dutch inhabitants, left-wing and right-wing, are progressive. So those issues are possible 'dealbreakers'.
Any combination of three of the four major parties is sufficient for a majority. This also means that any coalition requires at least two of the 'big four'.
Of the 24 coalitions since WWII, only 3 were without the largest party (all three times PvdA) and the largest number of parties in a coalition was 5 (in 1971 and 1973). After that, the three major christian parties merged into CDA, and 2- or 3-party coalitions became standard. These elections, however, the 'big three' lost 19 seats, making a 2-party coalition impossible. 3-party coalitions among the (now) 'big four' might be problematic because that would leave one party too weak on one end of the political spectrum (eg, neither CDA nor VVD would feel very comfortable in a coalition with PvdA and SP). The next biggest party, PvdV, is unlikely to be an acceptable candidate to any of the other parties because of its strong message against Islam. For this reason a predominantly right-wing cabinet is unlikely. The combination of all left-wing and centre-left parties, PvdA-SP-GL-CU-D66-PvdD, is only just possible (76 seats), but such a small majority with so many parties makes this an unlikely first choice. However, the fact that these parties form a majority means that at least one of them will have to be part of any coalition, unless a minority coalition is formed, an option briefly mentioned by VVD's Gerrit Zalm.
CDA and PvdA together need only 3 more seats to form a majority, so that combination leaves many options, including several 3-party coalitions. CDA and SP together need 9 more seats, so they should be complemented with either PvdA or VVD or a combination of smaller parties. This combination is by 2006 much more likely than it has been in the past, largely due to SP dropping most of its more extreme points. VVD can only form a coalition with two more of the 'big four', or CDA plus at least two smaller parties.
The traditional two liberal parties are VVD (right) and D66 (centre-left), but GroenLinks (left) leader Femke Halsema was proclaimed 'Liberal of the year' by the youth organisation of the right-wing liberal VVD, so that combination might be politically possible, but has only 32 seats and no single party could give this combination a majority. A combination with CDA would be too much like the Balkenende cabinets, which GroenLinks has been fulminating against in their campaign, a combination with either PvdA or SP would require too many other parties and a combination of VVD with both PvdA and SP would not require GroenLinks.
An extra complicating factor is that provincial elections will be held in March 2007, only 4 months later. These direct elections are also indirect elections for the first chamber and any coalition will be stronger if it has a majority in both chambers. However, with many voters being on the move, the result for those elections might be completely different. Something to consider here is that the PvdA-SP combination draws a fairly constant number of votes.
Reactions
In the final debate between the leaders of the major parties (CDA, PvdA, SP, VVD, PvdV, GL and CU) it was pointed out that the seated government lost 9 seats and the left wing parties (PdvA, Sp, GL, PvdD) won 8 seats, which was interpreted as a signal from the voters that government policy should be more social. The big winner on the right was PvdV, but when asked if any of the other parties would be willing to enter in a coalition with PvdV, no-one responded. When PvdV leader Wilders called this a cordon sanitaire, VVD leader Rutte responed fiercely, saying that the VVD does not exclude any possibilities but sees too many differences with the one-issue party that the PvdV is.
When asked about the possibility of a CDA-PvdA-CU coalition, PvdA leader Bos responded that during the campaign the differences between CDA and PvdA have turned out to be rather big and that the big winner SP also deserves a place at the negotiating table. SP leader Marijnisse responded to this that the SP had never excluded CDA as a coalition partner, but that the CDA of the previous cabinet is not one that the SP can enter in a coalition with. That, combined with the programme of the CDA and the list of CDA mp's would constitute many 'road bumps', but he would nevertheless be willing to enter talks about a CDA-PvdA-SP coalition.
Trivia
- The CDA party congress was ended by The Beatles song "All You Need Is Love".
- The PVDA party congress was ended by the Marco Borsato song "Rood" (Red).
- The VVD party congress was ended by Mick Jagger song "Let's Work".
- Filemon Wesselink, presenter of the (political) television program Lijst-0 for the youth channel BNN was elected #30 on the D66 candidate list. Wesselink tried in the program to become a candidate for various political parties, secretely taping each party's interview process. Although a candidate for D66, Wesselink withdrew himself from the list.
- Cabaretier Freek de Jonge performed an 'election show' ('verkiezingsconference') on public television the night before the elections. In his ironic comedy show, which was totally focused on the elections, he ridiculed the candidates, making such a show a uniquely Dutch phenomenon. When asked whether this show would influence the upcoming elections de Jonge stated he would make a fool out of everyone, not favouring a single person. This was the second time he did such a show. The first one was in 2003, when it was the 33rd best watched tv-programme in the Netherlands that year. This year, the show was watched by 2,016,000 viewers.
- The voting district Schiermonnikoog was able to tally its result first.
See also
References
- "Dutch coalition under threat in row over Hirsi Ali". MSN Moneyline. June 6, 2006.
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(help) - "D66 withdraws support from coalition; confusion reigns". Expatica. June 6, 2006.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon Ter Braak, Bert, De grote uittocht?, Parlement.com, August 25, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Van Dam, M. De bejaardenbelasting van Bos, De Volkskrant, June 22, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Van ‘bejaardenbelasting’ tot ‘regelrutter’, De Volkskrant, September 29, 2006
- Template:Nl icon ‘Opportunisme domineert het debat’, De Volkskrant, September 1, 2006
- Template:Nl icon PvdA trekt kandidatuur Sacan in, NOS, September 26, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Turkse CDA'ers weg om Armenië-rel NOS, September 26, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Genocide: Turkije woedend op PvdA, CDA Elsevier, September 29, 2006
- Alleged Armenian genocide not a historical reality: Tan, NTVMSNBC, September 28, 2006
- ^ Template:Nl icon Van Geel: 'Kerncentrale kan, onder voorwaarden', Regering.nl, September 29, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Greenpeace verstoort CDA-congres met spandoekTrouw, September 30, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Greenpeace verstoort toespraak VerhagenTrouw, September 30, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Remkes woedend over actie GreenpeaceElsevier, October 3, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Balkenende: in elke plaats een centrum voor jeugd en gezin, Trouw, November 20, 2006
- "Dutch inquiry into Iraq 'abuses'". BBC News. 2006-11-17.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"Nederlanders martelden Irakezen". De Volkskrant. 2006-11-17.
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(help) - "Defence minister denies abuse in Iraq". Expatica. 2006-11-17.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"OM: Geen reden tot onderzoek naar verhoren". Trouw. 2006-11-17.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"Berlijn haalt uit naar linkse oppositiepartijen". De Telegraaf. 2006-11-19.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"Rutte: informatie over Irak gemanipuleerd". Trouw. 2006-11-20.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"Kamp: Berichtgeving 'martelingen' deugde niet". Elsevier. 2006-11-22.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"Defensie eist rectificatie Volkskrant". Elsevier. 2006-11-22.
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(help) - ^ Seeking re-election, incumbent Dutch government promises to ban burqa, International Herald Tribune, November 17, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Beveiliging stemcomputer zo lek als een mandje, EenVandaag, October 4, 2006
- Nedap/Groenendaal ES3B voting computer - a security analysis Wij vertrouwen stemcomputers niet, October 4, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Nicolaï mogelijk voor rechter gedaagd, EenVandaag, October 5, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Stemcomputers krijgen nieuwe software, Elsevier, October 12, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Stemmachines in 35 gemeentes afgekeurd, Volkskrant, October 30, 2006
- ^ Template:Nl icon Stemcomputer of potlood?, EenVandaag, October 31, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Stemmachines in 35 gemeentes afgekeurd nu.nl, October 30, 2006
- Template:Nl iconBurger ziet internetstemmen zitten, Hoogheemraadschap Rijnland, August 25, 2004
- Template:Nl icon "Rutte vreest voor coalitie PvdA-CDA". NOS. October 29, 2006.
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(help) - ^ Netherlands - Balkenende might get new term, Angus Reid Global Monitor
- Template:Nl icon Enquête: Bos winnaar van tv-debat, de Volkskrant, November 4, 2006
- Template:Nl icon "Verkiezingsdebat". NOS Jeugdjournaal. November 7, 2006.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon "Wouter scoort het best". NOS Jeugdjournaal. November 7, 2006.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon Het grote lijsttrekkersdebat, EenVandaag, November 15, 2006
- Template:Nl icon Bos en Balkenende botsen hard in lijsttrekkersdebat, de Volkskrant, November 15, 2006
- Template:Nl icon"SP: kabinet met CDA, PvdA onderzoeken". NOS Nieuws. 2006-11-23.
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(help) - Template:Nl icon"Freek kraakt politici". NRC Handelsblad. 2006-11-21.
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(help) - "Stichting KijkOnderzoek".
- Template:Nl icon"Schiermonnikoog als eerste klaar met tellen". Volkskrant. 2006-11-22.
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(help)
External links
- Dutch Electoral Council
- Netherlands Election 2006 - Election news from Angus Reid Global Monitor. (see also: Election summary)
- "We don't trust voting computers" action group