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Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243

4K-AZ65, the Embraer 190AR involved in the accident
Occurrence
Date	25 December 2024 (2024-12-25)
Summary	Crashed on approach during emergency landing due to shootdown.
Site	Near Aktau International Airport, Aktau, Kazakhstan 43°52′57″N 51°0′36″E / 43.88250°N 51.01000°E / 43.88250; 51.01000
Aircraft
Aircraft type	Embraer 190AR
Aircraft name	Gusar
Operator	Azerbaijan Airlines
IATA flight No.	J28243
ICAO flight No.	AHY8243
Call sign	AZAL 8243
Registration	4K-AZ65
Flight origin	Heydar Aliyev International Airport, Baku, Azerbaijan
Destination	Kadyrov Grozny International Airport, Chechnya, Russia
Occupants	67
Passengers	62
Crew	5
Fatalities	38
Injuries	29
Survivors	29

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was a scheduled international passenger flight from Heydar Aliyev International Airport in Baku, Azerbaijan, to Kadyrov Grozny International Airport near Grozny, Russia. On 25 December 2024, the Embraer 190AR that Azerbaijan Airlines was using to operate the flight crashed near Aktau International Airport, Kazakhstan, with sixty-two passengers and five crew on board. Of those sixty-seven people, thirty-eight died in the accident, including both of the pilots and one flight attendant, while twenty-nine people survived with injuries.

Russian news agencies said that the plane had been flying from Baku to Grozny in the Russian republic of Chechnya but had been rerouted due to fog in Grozny. The plane reportedly squawked 7700 on its transponder, signalling an emergency on board while flying over the Caspian Sea. Survivors reported that there was an explosion and shrapnel hit the aircraft during the aircraft's approach to Grozny. In the initial aftermath, the airline and Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency suggested that the cause might have been a bird strike, though both Russian and Azerbaijani authorities said it was too early to speculate. Images from the crash scene showed multiple perforative holes in the tail section, damage that experts found inconsistent with a bird strike.

On 27 December The New York Times reported that Azerbaijani investigators believed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defence system was responsible for the accident.On 28 December Vladimir Putin apologized to the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, for the "tragic incident" involving the aircraft that occurred in Russian airspace, although he did not confirm that the flight had been shot down and did not take responsibility. He also added that Ukrainian drones had been targeting Grozny and that Russian air defence systems had been activated to respond the attack, which can raise red flags for a direct link.

Accident

The aircraft took off from Heydar Aliyev International Airport, Baku, at 07:55 Azerbaijan Time (AZT, UTC+04:00) on a flight to Kadyrov Grozny International Airport. According to flight tracking service Flightradar24, the aircraft was "exposed to strong GPS jamming and spoofing" while flying near Grozny. GPS jamming has been a known issue on flights and has been encountered while entering Russian airspace. Multiple checklists were made to handle such jamming, while spoofing is seen as more insidious. A surviving passenger said that on the third attempt to land in dense fog at Grozny, an explosion blew out some of the aircraft skin.

At 08:16, the crew reported that the aircraft had suffered a bird strike. Experiencing control difficulties, the crew requested that the aircraft be diverted to Makhachkala. At 08:22, the crew reported a hydraulics failure. The aircraft then attempted to divert to Makhachkala's Uytash Airport in Dagestan, Russia. However, the weather in Makhachkala was also poor and the aircraft was unable to land. It was subsequently diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan. It disappeared from radar coverage at 08:40 AZT.

The crew issued a distress signal by squawking 7700 at 09:35 AZT, reporting a failure of the control system. At 09:49 AZT, the pilots requested an emergency landing at Aktau International Airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, and attempted to manage the approach in direct mode, with the estimated landing time set for 11:25 Kazakhstan time (AQTT, UTC+05:00). At 11:00 AQTT, the Emergency Situations Department of the Mangystau Region dispatched emergency response teams and resources to Aktau airport.

The plane entered Kazakh airspace at 11:02 AQTT, then reappeared on radar at 11:07 AQTT, flying over the Caspian Sea toward Aktau. Altitude and speed data from Flightradar24 indicate the aircraft experienced extremely varying altitude and speed values.

The aircraft completed two turns near Aktau Airport. As it was making a third turn, at 11:28 AQTT, communication between the pilots and air traffic control was lost. At 11:30 AQTT, the airplane struck the ground three kilometers from the airport, with its right-wing hitting first. It then tumbled, exploded, and broke into two major pieces. The explosion, combined with the fire that broke out after the plane crashed, destroyed the front section of the plane. The tail section of the plane came to rest upside down away from the main wreckage, and remained largely intact. The crash was captured on video, which showed that the landing gear was deployed when the plane hit the ground. In response, additional resources and personnel from the Emergency Situations Department, initially stationed at the Aktau airport, arrived promptly at the scene at 11:35 AQTT and were deployed at an elevated emergency rank, extinguishing the fire by 12:05 AQTT. A surviving crew member said that the pilots initially ordered them to prepare for a water landing before changing to a ground landing.

Of the 67 people on board, 29 survived, and 38 died. Of the five crew members aboard, two flight attendants survived, while both pilots and one flight attendant were killed. Authorities said all of the fatalities occurred at the scene. The 29 survivors, including two children, were hospitalised following the accident for injuries that included closed craniocerebral injuries, brain concussion, closed chest injuries, and traumatic shocks. Eleven of them were in critical condition. Most of the survivors were believed to have been seated in the rear section of the aircraft.

Timeline

Background

Aircraft

The aircraft involved, which was manufactured in 2013, was an Embraer 190AR, registered as 4K-AZ65, and named Gusar after the Azerbaijan regional capital city. It was powered by two General Electric CF34-10E6 engines, and underwent its last maintenance on 18 October 2024. It made its first flight on 22 July 2013 and was owned by Azerbaijan Airlines. Since 2013, the aircraft was operated by the airline, except from 2017 to 2023, when it flew under the airline's subsidiary Buta Airways. The aircraft was 11 years old at the time of the accident.

Passengers and crew

The aircraft was carrying sixty-two passengers. Of those, thirty-seven people were citizens of Azerbaijan, sixteen of Russia, six of Kazakhstan, and three of Kyrgyzstan. Four minors were on board.

The aircraft had a crew of five: two pilots and three flight attendants, all of whom were Azerbaijanis. Captain Igor Kshnyakin was the pilot in command. He and First Officer Aleksandr Kalyaninov had a combined 10,000 hours of flight time. The pilots of the plane and flight attendant Hokume Aliyeva will be buried at the II Alley of Honor.

Aftermath

Following the accident, a state of emergency was declared in Tupkaragan District, where the aircraft crashed. A total of 482 emergency response personnel, 97 pieces of special equipment, 10 canine brigades, and 2 aircraft were deployed to the crash site. Additional doctors were flown in from Astana to treat the injured. The Blood Centre of the Mangystau Region reached out to the public, asking that healthy people donate blood. Soon after, residents of Aktau arrived at the centre to donate their blood, with around 300 participating. Residents of Astana also lined up at the city's blood centre to donate blood. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations flew equipment and medical workers to Kazakhstan to help with the response to the crash. It later airlifted Russian nationals injured in the accident to Moscow. On 26 December, seven injured Azerbaijanis were repatriated by Baku's Ministry of Emergency Situations.

A Republican headquarters was created on the basis of Kazakhstan's Emergencies Ministry Command Centre, which included representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Healthcare, the Ministry of Transport, the National Guard, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other agencies. A blogger, Azamat Sarsenbayev, was arrested and detained for 10 days after taking photos and video of the crash site. The police claimed he operated a drone, obstructed rescue operations and refused to obey police orders.

A crisis centre was established at the Russian consulate in Oral. Diplomatic staff were also sent to the crash site. Representatives from the Azerbaijani consulate in Aktau were also deployed to the crash site. A special medical team and related equipment were also dispatched from Azerbaijan. On the day of the accident, one of the aircraft's two flight recorders was located by a search team. The second was confirmed to be recovered the next day.

Azerbaijan Airlines suspended its Baku–Grozny–Baku and Baku–Makhachkala–Baku flights for the duration of the investigation. It also opened a hotline for relatives of those on board and changed its social media profiles to black as a sign of mourning. The Israeli flag carrier, El Al, suspended flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow for a week "citing developments in Russia's airspace". On 27 December Azerbaijan Airlines also suspended flights to Sochi, Volgograd, Ufa, Samara, Mineralnye Vody, Nizhny Novgorod, Vladikavkaz and Saratov, citing "security reasons". Qazaq Air also suspended its flights from Astana to Yekaterinburg until 27 January 2025 citing similar concerns. FlyDubai also suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody.

According to Azerbaijani government sources, preliminary investigation indicated that the accident was caused by a Russian missile. The Kremlin has stated it would not comment on the causes of the plane crash in Aktau until the results of the investigation are announced. NATO called for a comprehensive investigation into the accident.

Azerbaijan Airlines said it would pay 20,000 manats (approximately US$12,000) as compensation to each of the injured passengers, and 40,000 manats (approximately US$23,000) to the families of those who were killed. Additionally, all surviving passengers will receive the relevant insurance payment, in accordance with Azerbaijani law.

Azerbaijan demanded Russian president Vladmir Putin apologize for the shootdown and take responsibility for the innocent lives lost, which would be preventable if they accepted an emergency landing.

Reactions

International and domestic reactions to Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was en route to the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, when news of the accident broke out, leading him to return to Baku, where he held an emergency meeting on the accident shortly after landing at Baku airport. He declared a day of national mourning for 26 December. First lady and vice president Mehriban Aliyeva also expressed condolences. Condolences to Azerbaijan were expressed by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as leaders from countries outside the flight's path. Flowers were laid at the Azerbaijani embassy in Astana in mourning for the victims. Amid reports that the aircraft was fired at during a Ukrainian drone attack, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for a "thorough investigation", adding that visual evidence at the crash site "points to Russia's responsibility". White House spokesperson John Kirby said that the United States had seen "early indications" that Russia may have been responsible for the crash, adding that Washington had offered to assist in the investigation. On 28 December Vladimir Putin apologized to Ilham Aliyev, for the "tragic incident" involving the aircraft that occurred in Russian airspace, although he did not confirm that the flight had been shot down and did not take responsibility. He also added that Ukrainian drones had been targeting Grozny and that Russian air defence systems had been activated to respond the attack.

A moment of silence was held at noon across Azerbaijan to mark the day of national mourning on 26 December. It was decided that the matches of the eighth round of Azerbaijan Futsal Premier League and the Azerbaijan National Futsal Cup scheduled for 26 December will begin with a one-minute silence. Due to the day of national mourning, the matches of the Azerbaijan Taekwondo Championship, as well as the Azerbaijan Wrestling Championship scheduled for 26 December, were postponed. Additionally, all cultural and mass events planned in theater and concert venues on that date were also postponed.

A day of mourning was declared for 28 December in Chechnya by order of the head of the Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov.

According to the Flight Safety Foundation's Aviation Safety Network, it would be the third major shooting down of a civilian aircraft linked to armed conflict since 2014, along with Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. Iran Air Flight 655 was also accidentally shot down near a war zone. The Wall Street Journal highlighted the risks of civil aviation near war zones, stating that accidental shooting down of civilian aircraft has become the leading cause of deaths in commercial aviation in recent years.

Investigation

Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan opened commissions to investigate the disaster. The Kazakh commission was headed by deputy prime minister Qanat Bozymbaev, while Kazakh emergencies minister Chingis Arinov also visited Aktau. The Azerbaijani commission was headed by Prime Minister Ali Asadov. Azerbaijan sent a delegation consisting of its emergency situations minister, deputy general prosecutor, and the vice president of Azerbaijan Airlines to Aktau to conduct an on-site investigation. It also invited a group of civil aviation experts from Turkey for assistance. Embraer said it would assist in the investigation. It along with the Brazilian air incident investigation agency CENIPA sent representatives to Kazakhstan.

On 26 December, Kazakhstan said that law enforcement officials from Russia and Azerbaijan were not allowed to participate in the forensic investigation, citing existing laws. On 27 December, Azerbaijan rejected a proposal by Russia and Kazakhstan to have the accident investigated by the Interstate Aviation Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, saying that it wanted the investigation to be conducted by international experts and Embraer specialists.

In the initial aftermath, Azerbaijan Airlines stated that bird strikes could have caused the plane to crash, with Azerbaijan Airlines President Samir Rzayev, speaking to journalists, ruling out a technical failure as a potential cause. Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency suggested that based on preliminary information, the request for emergency landing was due to a bird strike, Later, Kazakhstan's emergency services reported that an oxygen cylinder on board might have exploded.

The bird strike hypothesis was soon questioned, as images from the scene showed significant perforating holes on the tail surfaces. Survivors of the crash reported hearing an explosion followed by shrapnel hitting the plane and some passengers. The crew had reported a strong impact on the fuselage from what was initially assumed to have been birds. Multiple experts from multiple countries stated that the damage in the images were not consistent with a bird strike, and that birds do not fly at the altitude that the plane was flying when the initial damage occurred.

On 26 December, Azerbaijani government sources stated to AnewZ and Euronews that a Russian Pantsir-S1 had fired a missile at the aircraft above Grozny, detonating near the plane, injuring passengers and crew members. According to the same sources, despite the pilots' requests to perform an emergency landing, they were denied to do so at any Russian airport, instead being ordered to fly towards Aktau. Subsequent analysis indicated that the crash occurred at an altitude of 2,400 metres (7,900 ft) over Naursky District, 18 kilometres north-northwest of Grozny airport. Reports indicate that the plane's GPS navigation systems were jammed along the flight route over the sea. Baku-based media outlets, citing Azerbaijani government sources, reported that the missile was fired by a Pantsir-S air defence system. According to Russian sources, as Flight 8243 flew over Chechen airspace, Russian air defence forces were actively engaging Ukrainian drones. On the morning of 25 December, the head of the Security Council of the Chechen Republic, Khamzat Kadyrov, confirmed that Grozny had been attacked by drones. He stated that there were no casualties or damage resulting from the accident. Azerbaijani media also published similar reports, citing Euronews' statement.

Subsequently, four sources in Azerbaijan with knowledge of the investigation informed Reuters that the airplane was downed by a Russian air defence system. According to one of the sources, preliminary investigation showed that the plane was hit by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system, and its communication systems were jammed by electronic warfare systems when approaching Grozny. In response, Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabayov demanded from Russia an official apology and bringing to justice those responsible, adding that otherwise "relations will be affected".

In the article published in The Times on 27 December, an American pilot, as well as two French experts analyzing the post-crash video noted that the plane was probably hit by a missile. The article stated that after losing all flight control systems, the pilots attempted to make an emergency landing using only the thrust from the engines. Experts reported that videos taken before and after the crash indicate that shrapnel pierced the rear of the aircraft, disabling all three parallel hydraulic systems located in the wings and tail section. When the control systems failed, the crew likely tried to manage the aircraft’s pitch and roll angles by independently adjusting the thrust power of the two jet engines.

On 27 December, the Azerbaijani minister of digital development and transportation Rashad Nabiyev said that preliminary results showed that Flight 8243 crashed due to "physical and technical external interference" from an unspecified weapon. That same day, Rosaviatsia confirmed that a closed-skies protocol had been imposed in Grozny on the day of the crash, citing the presence of Ukrainian drones.

Hypotheses

Flight 8243 was flying in an area where Russia claims to have recently downed Ukrainian drones attacking Russia as part of the Russo-Ukrainian War when it crashed. According to Flightradar24, Flight 8243 encountered GPS interference, with invalid ADS-B position data starting at 04:25 UTC due to significant interference.

Damage to the plane included apparent shrapnel marks on the vertical stabilizer and wings, suggesting an explosion nearby. Witness accounts reported injuries, with one woman wounded in the leg, and another witness's life jacket pierced by shrapnel. Military analyst Yan Matveyev hypothesized that Russian anti-aircraft systems, possibly the Pantsir-S1, may have mistaken the plane for a UAV due to a failure in the Pantsir's friend-or-foe identification system. Speaking to Türkiye Today, aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia challenged the bird strike hypothesis, saying "You can lose control of the plane, but you don't fly wildly off course as a consequence." Türkiye Today noted that the extensive shrapnel damage patterns across the aircraft’s fuselage and tail section was inconsistent with damage from bird strikes, instead resembling those of impacts of anti-aircraft ammunition, adding that "The concentration of puncture holes in the tail section suggests a possible loss of hydraulic systems, similar to the United Airlines Flight 232 accident". Militarnyi also noted similarities between this flight and an Ilyushin Il-22PP damaged by an anti-aircraft missile, stating that "one can see the similarity of damage and the number of holes in the hull, which probably indicates damage by a high-explosive fragment". Meduza similarly described evidence suggesting that the jet was hit by Russian air defence. Osprey Flight Solutions, a United Kingdom-based aviation security firm which provides analysis for airlines still flying into Russia, warned its clients that a Russian military air defence system had likely shot down the aircraft. On 27 December, The New York Times reported that Azerbaijani investigators believed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air-defence system was responsible for the damage.

See also

• Attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• List of airliner shootdown incidents
• Flight with disabled controls
• Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, shot down over Ukraine on 17 July 2014 during the War in Donbas

References

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