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{{Short description|1997 international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions}}
{{Treatybox|
{{About|the international treaty|the rock band|Kyoto Protocol (band)}}
treaty_name=Kyoto Protocol
<noinclude>{{Infobox Treaty
|colour_scheme=background:green
| name = Kyoto Protocol
|image=]
| long_name = Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC
|caption=The Kyoto Protocol is an amendment to the ].
| image = Kyoto Protocol parties.svg
|date_signed=] ]
| image_width = 355
|place_signed=]
| caption ={{legend|#008000|Annex B parties with binding targets in the second period}} {{legend|purple|Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but not the second}} {{legend|#0000FF|Non-Annex B parties without binding targets}} {{legend|#EEEE00|Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but which withdrew from the Protocol}} {{legend|orange|Signatories to the Protocol that have not ratified}} {{legend|#FF1111|Other UN member states and observers that are not party to the Protocol}}
|date_entered_into_force=], ].
| date_drafted =
|conditions_for_entry_into_force=55 parties and at least 55% ] ] emissions by ] parties.
| date_signed = {{dts|11 December 1997}}<ref name=parties/>
|parties=156 countries (as of Sep, 2005)
| location_signed = ], ]
|}}
| date_sealed =
| date_effective = 16 February 2005<ref name=parties/>
| condition_effective = Ratification by at least 55 states to the Convention
| date_expiration = 31 December 2012 (first commitment period)<ref>{{cite web|url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf|title=Kyoto Protocol on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|publisher=United Nations|access-date=17 November 2004|archive-date=5 October 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111005085911/http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref><br />31 December 2020 (second commitment period)<ref>{{cite web|url=https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol|title=What is the Kyoto Protocol?|publisher=UNFCCC|access-date=31 May 2021|archive-date=13 December 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231213141052/https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol|url-status=live}}</ref>
| signatories = 84<ref name=parties/> (1998–1999 signing period)
| parties = ]<ref>{{cite web |url=https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/status-of-ratification |title=Status of Ratification |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |website=unfccc.int |access-date=28 February 2020 |archive-date=5 September 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200905124014/http://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/status-of-ratification |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name=UNlist/> (the European Union, Cook Islands, Niue, and all ] except Andorra, Canada, South Sudan, and the United States as of 2022)
| depositor = ]
| language =
| languages = Arabic, Mandarin, English, French, Russian, and Spanish
| website =
| wikisource = Kyoto Protocol
}}</noinclude>
<noinclude>{{Infobox Treaty
| name = Kyoto Protocol Extension (2012–2020)
| long_name = Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol
| type = Amendment to international agreement
| image = Doha Amendment of Kyoto.svg
| image_width = 350
| caption = Acceptance of the Doha Amendment
{{legend|#32CD32|States that ratified}}
{{legend|#b9b9b9|Kyoto protocol parties that did not ratify}}
{{legend|#e9e9e9|Non-parties to the Kyoto Protocol}}
| date_drafted = 8 December 2012
| location_signed = ], ]
| date_sealed =
| date_effective = 31 December 2020<ref name=DOHARAT/>
| condition_effective = Ratification by 144 state parties required
| date_expiration = 31 December 2020<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/10/02/nigeria-jamaica-bring-closure-kyoto-protocol-era-last-minute-dash/|title=Nigeria, Jamaica bring closure to the Kyoto Protocol era, in last-minute dash|publisher=Climate Change News|date=2 October 2020|access-date=31 May 2021|archive-date=6 April 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230406105609/https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/10/02/nigeria-jamaica-bring-closure-kyoto-protocol-era-last-minute-dash/|url-status=live}}</ref>
| signatories = <!--there is only ratification/acception...-->
| ratifiers = 147<ref name=DOHARAT>{{cite web|url=https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-c&chapter=27&clang=_en|title=7 .c Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol|work=UN Treaty Database|access-date=19 April 2015|archive-date=4 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210204160337/https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-c&chapter=27&clang=_en|url-status=live}}</ref>
| depositor =
| language =
| languages =
| website =
| wikisource = Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol
}}</noinclude>
{{Use dmy dates|date=August 2020}}
]]]
The {{nihongo|'''Kyoto Protocol'''|京都議定書|Kyōto Giteisho|lead=yes}} was an ] which extended the 1992 ] (UNFCCC) that commits state parties to reduce ], based on the ] that ] is occurring and that human-made ] are driving it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in ], Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. There were 192 parties (] withdrew from the protocol, effective December 2012)<ref name=UNlist>{{cite web |url=https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en |title=7 .a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |work=UN Treaty Database |access-date=27 November 2014 |archive-date=8 October 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181008095709/https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en |url-status=dead }}</ref> to the Protocol in 2020.


The Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to reduce the onset of global warming by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Article 2). The Kyoto Protocol applied to the seven greenhouse gases listed in Annex A: ], ], ], ]s (HFCs), ] (PFCs), ], ].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://naei.beis.gov.uk/overview/ghg-overview.php|title=Overview of greenhouse gases - Defra, UK|website=Naei.beis.gov.uk|access-date=2 March 2022|archive-date=23 January 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230123114338/https://naei.beis.gov.uk/overview/ghg-overview.php|url-status=live}}</ref> Nitrogen trifluoride was added for the second compliance period during the Doha Round.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kp_doha_amendment_english.pdf|title=Doha amendment to the Kyoto Protocol|website=Unfcc.int|access-date=2 March 2022|archive-date=24 December 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221224054705/http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kp_doha_amendment_english.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref>
The '''Kyoto Protocol''' or '''Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change''' is an international ] on ]. It is actually an ] to the ]. ] which ] this ] commit to reduce their emissions of ] and five other ]es, or engage in ] if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.


The Protocol was based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities: it acknowledged that individual countries have different capabilities in combating climate change, owing to ], and therefore placed the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" .


The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. All 36 countries that fully participated in the first commitment period complied with the Protocol. However, nine countries had to resort to the flexibility mechanisms by funding emission reductions in other countries because their national emissions were slightly greater than their targets. The ] reduced emissions. The greatest emission reductions were seen in the former ] countries because the ] reduced their emissions in the early 1990s.<ref name="Shislov">{{cite journal |last1=Shishlov |first1=Igor |last2=Morel |first2=Romain |last3=Bellassen |first3=Valentin |date=2016 |title=Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period |journal=Climate Policy |volume=16 |issue=6 |pages=768–782 |doi=10.1080/14693062.2016.1164658 |bibcode=2016CliPo..16..768S |s2cid=156120010 |url=https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01425106/file/2016%20-%20Shishlov%20et%20al%20-%20Climate%20Policy%20-%20Compliance%20of%20the%20Parties%20to%20the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20in%20the%20first%20commitment%20period_preprint.pdf |access-date=5 September 2021 |archive-date=23 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230123111240/https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01425106/file/2016%20-%20Shishlov%20et%20al%20-%20Climate%20Policy%20-%20Compliance%20of%20the%20Parties%20to%20the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20in%20the%20first%20commitment%20period_preprint.pdf |url-status=live | issn=1469-3062 }}</ref> Even though the 36 developed countries reduced their emissions, the global emissions increased by 32% from 1990 to 2010.<ref name="GapReport">{{cite web |url=http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/8526/-The%20emissions%20gap%20report%202012_%20a%20UNEP%20synthesis%20reportemissionGapReport2012.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y |title=The Emissions Gap Report 2012 |date=2012 |publisher=United Nations Environment Programme |page=2 |access-date=2019-12-07 |archive-date=23 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230123114216/https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/8526/-The%20emissions%20gap%20report%202012_%20a%20UNEP%20synthesis%20reportemissionGapReport2012.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y |url-status=live }}</ref>
The IPCC has predicted an average global rise in ] of 1.4°] to 5.8°C between 1990 and 2100. Some current estimates indicate that even if successfully and completely implemented, the Kyoto Protocol will reduce that increase by somewhere between 0.02°C and 0.28°C by the year ] (source: '']'', ] ]). Because of this, many critics and environmentalists question the value of the Kyoto Protocol, should subsequent measures fail to produce deeper cuts in the future.


A second commitment period was agreed to in 2012 to extend the agreement to 2020, known as the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, in which 37 countries had binding targets: ], the ] (and its then 28 ], now 27), ], ], ], ], ], ], and ]. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine stated that they may withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol or not put into legal force the Amendment with second round targets.<ref name="figueres doha summary">{{citation | last=Figueres | first=C. | title=Environmental issues: Time to abandon blame-games and become proactive - Economic Times | work=The Economic Times / Indiatimes.com | publisher=Times Internet | url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-15/news/35836633_1_emission-reduction-targets-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-climate-change | date=15 December 2012 | access-date=2012-12-18 | archive-date=23 January 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230123111242/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-12-15/news/35836633_1_emission-reduction-targets-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-climate-change | url-status=dead }}</ref> Japan, ], and ] had participated in Kyoto's first-round but did not take on new targets in the second commitment period. Other developed countries without second-round targets were Canada (which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2012) and the ] (which did not ratify). If they were to remain as a part of the protocol, Canada would be hit with a $14 billion fine, which would be devastating to their economy, hence the reluctant decision to exit.<ref>{{cite news |first1= |date=December 12, 2011 |title=Canada pulls out of Kyoto Protocol |work=CBC News |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-pulls-out-of-kyoto-protocol-1.999072 |access-date=11 January 2023 |archive-date=11 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230111115157/https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-pulls-out-of-kyoto-protocol-1.999072 |url-status=live }}</ref> As of October 2020, 147<ref name=DOHARAT/><ref>{{cite web|title=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/doha_amendment/items/7362.php|website=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|access-date=23 July 2016|ref=66|archive-date=8 December 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221208170819/https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/doha_amendment/items/7362.php|url-status=live}}</ref> states had accepted the Doha Amendment. It entered into force on 31 December 2020, following its acceptance by the mandated minimum of at least 144 states, although the second commitment period ended on the same day. Of the 37 parties with binding commitments, 34 had ratified.
] emissions of ].]]


Negotiations were held in the framework of the yearly UNFCCC Climate Change Conferences on measures to be taken after the second commitment period ended in 2020. This resulted in the 2015 adoption of the ], which is a separate instrument under the UNFCCC rather than an amendment of the Kyoto Protocol.
Proponents also note that Kyoto is a first step , as requirements to meet the UNFCCC will be modified until the objective is met, as required by UNFCCC Article 4.2(d).


== Status of the agreement == == Chronology ==
{{See also|History of climate change policy and politics|United Nations Climate Change Conference}}


'''1992''' – The UN Conference on the Environment and Development is held in Rio de Janeiro. It results in the ] (UNFCCC) among other agreements.
] and the ] have signed but, currently, decline to ratify it.]]The treaty was negotiated in ] in ] ], opened for signature on ], ], and closed on ], ]. The agreement came into force on ], ] following ratification by ] on ], ]. ], a total of 156 countries have ratified the agreement (representing over 61% of global emissions) . Notable exceptions include the ] and ].


'''1995''' – Parties to the UNFCCC meet in Berlin (the 1st Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC) to outline specific targets on emissions.
According to terms of the protocol, it enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.". Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on ] ] when ] ratified. The ratification by Russia on ] ] satisfied the "55 percent" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective ], ].


'''1997''' – In December the parties conclude the Kyoto Protocol in Kyoto, Japan, in which they agree to the broad outlines of emissions targets.
== Details of the agreement ==


'''2004''' – Russia and Canada ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC bringing the treaty into effect on 16 February 2005.
According to press release from the ]:


'''2011''' – Canada became the first signatory to announce its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/default.asp?lang=En&n=EE4F06AE-1&xml=EE4F06AE-13EF-453B-B633-FCB3BAECEB4F&offset=3&toc=show|title=A Climate Change Plan for the Purposes of the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act 2012: Canada's Withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol|date=11 February 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150211142508/http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/default.asp?lang=En&n=EE4F06AE-1&xml=EE4F06AE-13EF-453B-B633-FCB3BAECEB4F&offset=3&toc=show|archive-date=11 February 2015|access-date=2 March 2022}}</ref>
:"''The Kyoto Protocol is a legal agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of ]es by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut). The goal is to lower overall emissions from six greenhouse gases - ], ], ], ], ]s, and ] - calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12. National targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.''"


'''2012''' – On 31 December 2012, the first commitment period under the Protocol expired.
It is an agreement negotiated as an amendment to the ] (UNFCCC, which was adopted at the ] in ] in ]). All parties to the UNFCCC can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol, while non-parties to the UNFCCC cannot. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in ] in ], ].


The official meeting of all states party to the Kyoto Protocol is the annual ] to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The first conference was held in 1995 in Berlin (]). The first Meeting of Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) was held in 2005 in conjunction with ].
Most provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to the UNFCCC.


==Objectives==
=== Financial commitments ===
{{Multiple image
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay, and supply technology to, other countries for climate-related studies and projects. This was originally agreed in the ].
|direction=vertical
| align=left
| image1= Major greenhouse gas trends.png
| alt1=Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
| image2= Stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at a constant level would require emissions to be effectively eliminated (vertical).png
| alt2=Refer to caption
| caption1=Kyoto is intended to cut ] emissions of ]es.
| caption2=In order to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of {{CO2}}, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.<ref>{{cite book | year = 2009 | contribution = BOX NT.1 Summary of Climate Change Basics | title = Non-Technical Summary | series = Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making. A Report by the U.S. ] and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research | publisher = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | location = Washington D.C., USA. | page = 11 | last1 = Granger Morgan * | first1 = M. | quote = (* is Lead Author) | first2 = H. | last2 = Dowlatabadi | first3 = M. | last3 = Henrion | first4 = D. | last4 = Keith | first5 = R. | last5 = Lempert | first6 = S. | last6 = McBride | first7 = M. | last7 = Small | first8 = T. | last8 = Wilbanks | url = http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps/311 | url-status = dead | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100527134225/http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps/311 | archive-date = 27 May 2010 | df = dmy-all }}
</ref>
}}


The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol was to control emissions of the main anthropogenic (human-emitted) greenhouse gases (GHGs) in ways that reflect underlying national differences in GHG emissions, wealth, and capacity to make the reductions.<ref name="2004 grubb kyoto">
=== Emissions trading ===
{{cite journal
''General article: ]''
|last = Grubb
|first = M.
|year = 2004
|title = Kyoto and the Future of International Climate Change Responses: From Here to Where?
|journal = International Review for Environmental Strategies
|volume = 5
|issue = 1
|page = 2 (PDF version)
|url = http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/rstaff/grubb/publications/J37.pdf
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120111215457/http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/rstaff/grubb/publications/J37.pdf
|archive-date = 11 January 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}
</ref> The treaty follows the main principles agreed in the original 1992 UN Framework Convention.<ref name="2004 grubb kyoto"/> According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I Parties who have ratified the treaty must have fulfilled their obligations of greenhouse gas emissions limitations established for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008–2012). These emissions limitation commitments are listed in Annex B of the Protocol.


The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the first detailed step taken within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.<ref name=gupta/> The Protocol establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods. It set a timetable starting in 2006 for negotiations to establish emission reduction commitments for a second commitment period.<ref name="grubb commitments">{{harvnb|Grubb|Depledge|2001|p=269}}</ref> The first period emission reduction commitments expired on 31 December 2012.
Each Annex I country has agreed to limit emissions to the levels described in the protocol, but many countries have limits that are set above their current production. These &quot;extra amounts&quot; can be purchased by other countries on the open market. So, for instance, ] currently easily meets its targets, and can sell off its ''credits'' for millions of dollars to countries that don't yet meet their targets, to Canada for instance. This rewards countries that meet their targets, and provides financial incentives to others to do so as soon as possible:


The first-round Kyoto emissions limitation commitments were not sufficient to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of GHGs. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations will require further emissions reductions after the end of the first-round Kyoto commitment period in 2012.<ref name="grubb commitments" /><ref name="ipcc kyoto stabilization">
Countries also receive credits through various shared &quot;clean energy&quot; programs and "]" in the form of forests and other systems that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
{{citation |title=Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations would depend upon emissions reductions beyond those agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol |df=dmy-all |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121030105841/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/058.htm |chapter=Question 7 |chapter-url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/058.htm |archive-date=30 October 2012}}
, p.122, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR SYR|2001}}
</ref>


The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would stop dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."<ref name="unfccc2005">{{cite web
A Washington D.C.-based NGO, in the report "Getting It Right: Emerging Markets for Storing Carbon in Forests", assumes values of $30-40/ton in the US and $70-80/ton in Europe. On ] ], ] purchased credits for 4 megatons of ] emissions from Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic; this was part of the ERUPT procurement procedure. These purchase agreements however contained conditions precedent, e.g. referring to the financing of the underlying projects. Since several of these conditions have not been met, the amount of purchased credits has since then decreased.
|title=Article 2
|work=The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
|quote=Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
|url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php
|access-date=15 November 2005
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051028023600/http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php
|archive-date= 28 October 2005
}}</ref> Even if Annex I Parties succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations.<ref name="grubb commitments"/><ref name="ipcc kyoto stabilization"/>


For each of the different anthropogenic GHGs, different levels of emissions reductions would be required to meet the objective of ].<ref name="2007 meehl stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs">{{cite book
=== Revisions ===
|year = 2007
|contribution = FAQ 10.3 If Emissions of Greenhouse Gases are Reduced, How Quickly do Their Concentrations in the Atmosphere Decrease?
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-10-3.html
|last = Meehl
|first = G. A.
|title = Global Climate Projections
|series = Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor = Solomon, S.
|display-editors = etal
|publisher = Cambridge University Press
|display-authors = etal
|access-date = 26 December 2011
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20111224051815/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-10-3.html
|archive-date = 24 December 2011
|url-status = dead
|df = dmy-all
}}</ref> ] ({{CO2}}) is the most important anthropogenic GHG.<ref>{{cite book
| year=2007
| contribution=Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
| url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html
| author=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
| title=Summary for Policymakers
| series=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
| editor=Solomon, S.
| publisher=Cambridge University Press
| display-editors=etal
| access-date=26 December 2011
| archive-date=2 November 2018
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181102212113/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html
| url-status=dead
}}</ref> Stabilizing the concentration of {{CO2}} in the atmosphere would ultimately require the effective elimination of anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions.<ref name="2007 meehl stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs"/>


To achieve stabilization, global GHG emissions must peak, then decline.<ref name="emissions peak and decline">{{citation |title=5.4 Emission trajectories for stabilisation |df=dmy-all |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141127224337/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains5-4.html |url-status=dead |chapter=Synthesis report |chapter-url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains5-4.html |archive-date=27 November 2014}}
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the ] (COP). ] attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in ] in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}</ref> The lower the desired stabilization level, the sooner this peak and decline must occur.<ref name="emissions peak and decline" /> For a given stabilization level, larger emissions reductions in the near term allow for less stringent emissions reductions later.<ref name="near term emissions reductions">
{{citation |title=Sec 8.5 Pathways to stabilisation |df=dmy-all |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121006161506/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_8_The_Challenge_of_Stabilisation.pdf |url-status=dead |chapter=Chapter 8 The challenge of stabilisation |chapter-url=http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_8_The_Challenge_of_Stabilisation.pdf |archive-date=6 October 2012}}, in {{harvnb|Stern|2006|p=199}}
</ref> On the other hand, less stringent near term emissions reductions would, for a given stabilization level, require more stringent emissions reductions later on.<ref name="near term emissions reductions" />


The first period Kyoto emissions limitations can be viewed as a first-step towards achieving atmospheric stabilization of GHGs.<ref name="gupta" /> In this sense, the first period Kyoto commitments may affect what future atmospheric stabilization level can be achieved.<ref>{{citation |last=Höhne |first=N. |title=Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on Stabilization of Carbon Dioxide Concentration |url=http://stabilisation.metoffice.com/posters/Hohne_Niklas.pdf |location=Cologne, Germany |publisher=ECOFYS energy & environment |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-date=13 January 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200113095438/http://stabilisation.metoffice.com/posters/Hohne_Niklas.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref>
In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in ] where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the ]) managed to get ] and ] in as well by allowing more use of ].


== Principal concepts ==
] was held from ] ] &ndash; ] ] in ] to establish the final details of the protocol.
Some of the principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:
* Binding commitments for the Annex I Parties. The main feature of the Protocol<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol overview">{{citation
| year=2011
| author=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
| title=Kyoto Protocol
| publisher=UNFCCC
| url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
| access-date=30 December 2011
| archive-date=16 May 2011
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110516211124/http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
| url-status=live
}}</ref> is that it established legally binding commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for Annex I Parties. The commitments were based on the Berlin Mandate, which was a part of UNFCCC negotiations leading up to the Protocol.{{sfn|Depledge|2000|p=6}}<ref name="liverman">{{cite journal |last=Liverman |first=D. M. |year=2008 |title=Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere |url=http://www.environment.arizona.edu/files/env/profiles/liverman/liverman-2009-jhg.pdf |url-status=dead |journal=Journal of Historical Geography |volume=35 |issue=2 |pages=279–296 |doi=10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140912161138/http://www.environment.arizona.edu/files/env/profiles/liverman/liverman-2009-jhg.pdf |archive-date=12 September 2014 |access-date=10 May 2011 |df=dmy-all}}</ref>{{Rp|290|date=November 2012}}
* Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I Parties are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home.
* Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an ] fund for climate change.
* Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
* Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol.


=== Flexibility mechanisms ===
== Current positions of governments ==
The Protocol defines three "]" that can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.<ref>
''See also: ]''
{{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/225.htm
|title = Executive summary
|chapter = Measures, and Instruments
|last1 = Bashmakov
|first1 = I.
|display-authors = etal
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120117023130/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/225.htm
|df = dmy-all
|archive-date = 17 January 2012
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref>{{Rp|402|date=November 2012}} The flexibility mechanisms are International Emissions Trading (IET), the ] (CDM), and ] (JI). IET allows Annex I Parties to "trade" their emissions (], AAUs, or "allowances" for short).<ref>Clifford Chance LLP (2012). "Clean Development Mechanism: CDM and the UNFCC" {{cite web |url=http://a4id.org/sites/default/files/user/CDM%26UNFCCCcorrected.pdf |title=Archived copy |access-date=2013-09-19 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130921060112/http://a4id.org/sites/default/files/user/CDM%26UNFCCCcorrected.pdf |archive-date=21 September 2013 |df=dmy-all }}. Advocates for International Development. Retrieved: 19 September 2013.</ref>


The economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the ] cost of reducing (or abating) emissions differs among countries.<ref name="toth 2001 flexibility mechanisms">
]
{{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/441.htm
|title = 10.4.4. Where Should the Response Take Place? The Relationship between Domestic Mitigation and the Use of International Mechanisms
|chapter = 10. Decision-making Frameworks
|last1 = Toth
|first1 = F. L.
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120117032405/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/441.htm
|archive-date = 17 January 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref>{{Rp|660|date=November 2012}}<ref>
{{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/246.htm
|title = 6.3 International Policies, Measures, and Instruments
|chapter = 6. Policies, Measures, and Instruments
|last1 = Bashmakov
|first1 = I.
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20090805204450/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar///wg3/246.htm
|archive-date = 5 August 2009
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> "Marginal cost" is the cost of abating the last tonne of {{CO2}}-eq for an Annex I/non-Annex I Party. At the time of the original Kyoto targets, studies suggested that the flexibility mechanisms could reduce the overall (]) cost of meeting the targets.<ref name="hourcade 2001 economic costs of flexibility mechanisms">
{{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/341.htm
|title = 8.3.1 International Emissions Quota Trading Regimes
|chapter = 8. Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation
|last1 = Hourcade
|first1 = J.-C.
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120111150919/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/341.htm
|archive-date = 11 January 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> Studies also showed that national losses in Annex I ] (GDP) could be reduced by the use of the flexibility mechanisms.<ref name="hourcade 2001 economic costs of flexibility mechanisms" />


The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms", in that they generate emission reductions from projects. The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions.<ref name="toth 2001 flexibility mechanisms" /> The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I Parties, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I Parties.
=== Position of Russia ===


The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.<ref>
] approved the treaty on ], ] and Russia officially notified the United Nations of its ratification on ], ]. With that, the Russian ratification is complete. The issue of Russian ratification was particularly closely watched in the international community, as the accord was brought into force 90 days after Russian ratification (], ]).
{{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/247.htm
|title = 6.3.2 Project-based Mechanisms (Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism)
|chapter = 6. Policies, Measures, and Instruments
|last1 = Bashmakov
|first1 = I.
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120113181950/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/247.htm
|archive-date = 13 January 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured against a hypothetical ] of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called ]s (CERs); reductions produced by JI are called ]s (ERUs). The reductions are called "]" because they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Fernandez Quesada|first=Nicolas|title=Kyoto Protocol, Emissions Trading and Reduction Technologies for Climate Change Mitigation|date=2013|publisher=GRIN Verlag GmbH|isbn=978-3-656-47173-8|location=Munich|oclc=862560217}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=2lqtDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA14 |title=International Conventions on Atmosphere Handbook|publisher=International Business Publications, USA|isbn=9781433066290|pages=14|date=3 March 2008}}</ref>


Only emission reduction projects that do not involve using nuclear energy are eligible for accreditation under the CDM, in order to prevent nuclear technology exports from becoming the default route for obtaining credits under the CDM.
President Putin had earlier decided in favour of the protocol in September ], along with the Russian cabinet . As anticipated after this, ratification by the lower (] ]) and upper house of parliament did not encounter any obstacles.


Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its ]. Virtually all of the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage their Kyoto obligations, specifically the "CDM process". This determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board.
The Kyoto Protocol limits emissions to a percentage increase or decrease from their 1990 levels. Since 1990 the economies of most countries in the former ] have collapsed, as have their greenhouse gas emissions. Because of this, Russia should have no problem meeting its commitments under Kyoto, as its current emission levels are substantially below its targets. Indeed, it may be able to benefit from selling emissions credits to other countries in the Kyoto Protocol, which are currently using more than their target levels of emissions.


==== International emissions trading ====
=== Position of the European Union ===
{{excerpt|Carbon emission trading}}


===== Intergovernmental emissions trading =====
On ], ], all fifteen then-members of the ] deposited the relevant ratification paperwork at the UN. The EU produces around 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and has agreed to a cut, on average, by 8% from ] emission levels. The EU has consistently been one of the major supporters of the Kyoto Protocol, negotiating hard to get wavering countries on board.
The design of the ] (EU ETS) implicitly allows for trade of national Kyoto obligations to occur between participating countries.{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|p=24}} The Carbon Trust found that other than the trading that occurs as part of the EU ETS, no intergovernmental emissions trading had taken place.{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|pp=24–25}}


One of the environmental problems with IET is the large surplus of allowances that are available. Russia, Ukraine, and the new EU-12 member states (the Kyoto Parties Annex I Economies-in-Transition, abbreviated "EIT": Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine)<ref>{{citation
In December, ], the EU created a system of emissions trading in an effort to meet these tough targets. Quotas were introduced in six key industries: energy, steel, cement, glass, brick making, and paper/cardboard. There are also fines for member nations that fail to meet their obligations, starting at &euro;40/ton of carbon dioxide in ], and rising to &euro;100/ton in ]. Current EU projections suggest that by 2008 the EU will be at 4.7% below 1990 levels.
|title=Development and Climate Change: A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group: Technical Report
|year=2008
|author=World Bank
|url=http://beta.worldbank.org/overview/strategic-framework-development-and-climate-change
|publisher=The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.
|location=Washington, DC, USA
|access-date=3 April 2010
|archive-date=24 December 2009
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091224213652/http://beta.worldbank.org/overview/strategic-framework-development-and-climate-change
|url-status=dead
}}</ref>{{Rp|59|date=November 2012}} have a surplus of allowances, while many ] countries have a deficit.{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|p=24}} Some of the EITs with a surplus regard it as potential compensation for the trauma of their economic restructuring.{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|p=25}} When the Kyoto treaty was negotiated, it was recognized that emissions targets for the EITs might lead to them having an excess number of allowances.<ref>
{{cite book
|year = 2001
|contribution = 8.3.1.1 "Where Flexibility"
|title = 8. Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation
|page = 538
|series = Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. A Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor = B. Metz
|display-editors = etal
|publisher = Cambridge University Press
|last1 = Hourcade
|first1 = J.-C.
|url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/341.htm
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120111150919/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/341.htm
|archive-date = 11 January 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}
</ref> This excess of allowances were viewed by the EITs as "headroom" to grow their economies.<ref>{{citation
| year=2003
| title=Green Investment Schemes: Options and Issues
| last1=Blyth
| first1=W.
| first2=R.
| last2=Baron
| page=11
| publisher=Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Environment Directorate and International Energy Agency (IEA)
| location=Paris, France
| url=http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/54/19842798.pdf
| access-date=16 December 2011
| archive-date=22 December 2011
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111222054248/http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/54/19842798.pdf
| url-status=live
}} OECD reference: COM/ENV/EPOC/IEA/SLT(2003)9</ref> The surplus has, however, also been referred to by some as "hot air", a term which Russia (a country with an estimated surplus of 3.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent allowances) views as "quite offensive".<ref>
{{citation
|date = 30 June 2008
|title = Energy and Climate Change in Russia (note requested by the European Parliament's temporary committee on Climate Change, Policy Department Economy and Science, DG Internal Policies, European Parliament)
|last1 = Chiavari
|first1 = J.
|first2 = M.
|last2 = Pallemaerts
|page = 11
|publisher = Institute for European Environmental Policy
|location = Brussels, Belgium
|url = http://www.ieep.eu/assets/433/ecc_russia.pdf
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20111222054254/http://www.ieep.eu/assets/433/ecc_russia.pdf
|url-status = dead
|archive-date = 22 December 2011
}}
</ref>


OECD countries with a deficit could meet their Kyoto commitments by buying allowances from transition countries with a surplus. Unless other commitments were made to reduce the total surplus in allowances, such trade would not actually result in emissions being reduced{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|p=25}} (see also the section below on the ]).
The position of the EU is not without controversy in Protocol negotiations, however. The collapse of Eastern Bloc countries who now are members of the EU may mean that the region's 1990 baseline emissions rate is inflated compared to that of other developed countries, thus giving European economies a potential competitive advantage over the US.


=== Position of the United States === ===== "Green Investment Schemes" =====
The "Green Investment Scheme" (GIS) is a plan for achieving environmental benefits from trading surplus allowances (AAUs) under the Kyoto Protocol.<ref name="Definition of Green Investment Scheme (GIS)">{{citation
The ], although a signatory to the protocol, has neither ratified nor withdrawn from the protocol. The protocol is non-binding over the United States until ratified.
| year=2011
| title=Carbon Finance - Glossary of Terms: Definition of "Green Investment Scheme" (GIS)
| author=Carbon Finance at the World Bank
| publisher=World Bank Carbon Finance Unit (CFU)
| location=Washington, DC, US
| url=http://go.worldbank.org/HZGVW3QN20
| archive-url=http://webarchive.loc.gov/all/20100817010146/http://go.worldbank.org/HZGVW3QN20
| url-status=dead
| archive-date=17 August 2010
| access-date=15 December 2011
}}</ref> The Green Investment Scheme (GIS), a mechanism in the framework of International Emissions Trading (IET), is designed to achieve greater flexibility in reaching the targets of the Kyoto Protocol while preserving environmental integrity of IET. However, using the GIS is not required under the Kyoto Protocol, and there is no official definition of the term.<ref name="Definition of Green Investment Scheme (GIS)" />


Under the GIS a party to the protocol expecting that the development of its economy will not exhaust its Kyoto quota, can sell the excess of its Kyoto quota units (AAUs) to another party. The proceeds from the AAU sales should be "greened", i.e. channelled to the development and implementation of the projects either acquiring the greenhouse gases emission reductions (hard greening) or building up the necessary framework for this process (soft greening).{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|p=25}}
On ], ], before the Kyoto Protocol was to be negotiated, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95&ndash;0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States". On ], ], Vice President ] symbolically signed the protocol. Aware of the Senate's view of the protocol, the Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol for ratification.


===== Trade in AAUs =====
The Clinton Administration released an economic analysis in ] ], prepared by the ], which concluded that with emissions trading among the Annex B/Annex I countries, and participation of key developing countries in the "]" &mdash; which grants the latter business-as-usual emissions rates through ] &mdash; the costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol could be reduced as much as 60% from many estimates. Other economic analyses, however, prepared by the ] and the ] ] (EIA), and others, demonstrated a potentially large decline in GDP from implementing the Protocol.
Latvia was one of the front-runners of GISs. World Bank (2011)<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus">{{citation
| year=2011
| author=World Bank
| title=State and Trends of the Carbon Market Report 2011
| url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_Updated_June_2011.pdf
| publisher=World Bank Environment Department, Carbon Finance Unit
| location=Washington, DC, USA
| access-date=26 January 2012
| archive-date=25 March 2020
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200325045048/http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_Updated_June_2011.pdf
| url-status=live
}}</ref>{{Rp|53|date=November 2012}} reported that Latvia has stopped offering AAU sales because of low AAU prices. In 2010, Estonia was the preferred source for AAU buyers, followed by the Czech Republic and Poland.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus" />{{Rp|53|date=November 2012}}


Japan's national policy to meet their Kyoto target includes the purchase of AAUs sold under GISs.<ref>{{citation
The current President, ], has indicated that he does not intend to submit the treaty for ratification, not because he does not support the general idea, but because of the strain he believes the treaty would put on the economy; he emphasizes the uncertainties he asserts are present in the climate change issue . Furthermore, he is not happy with the details of the treaty. For example, he does not support the split between Annex I countries and others. Bush said of the treaty:
| date=28 March 2008
| author=Government of Japan
| title=Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan (Provisional Translation)
| url=http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/kptap.pdf
| publisher=Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan
| location=Tokyo, Japan
| pages=81–82
| access-date=26 January 2012
| archive-date=20 April 2012
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120420003913/https://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/kptap.pdf
| url-status=live
}}</ref> In 2010, Japan and Japanese firms were the main buyers of AAUs.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus" />{{Rp|53|date=November 2012}} In terms of the international carbon market, trade in AAUs are a small proportion of overall market value.<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus" />{{Rp|9|date=November 2012}} In 2010, 97% of trade in the international carbon market was driven by the ] (EU ETS).<ref name="world bank 2011 trade in aaus" />{{Rp|9|date=November 2012}}


===== Clean Development Mechanism =====
: ''This is a challenge that requires a 100 percent effort; ours, and the rest of the world's. The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is ]. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. India and Germany are among the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto. . . . America's unwillingness to embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change. . . . . Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.'' ''President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change''.
Between 2001, which was the first year ] (CDM) projects could be registered, and 2012, the end of the first Kyoto commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5&nbsp;billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO<sub>2</sub>e) in emission reductions.{{sfn|World Bank|2010}} Most of these reductions are through ], ], and fuel switching (World Bank, 2010, p.&nbsp;262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are estimated in ] (52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make up 15% of the potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).


===== Joint Implementation =====
According to the information from ], recently China energy-related usage produced 3,541 million metric tons of CO<sub>2</sub>, while the U.S. produced 5,796 million metric tons.
The formal crediting period for ] (JI) was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p.&nbsp;20).{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009}} In November 2008, only 22 JI projects had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions.


==Details of the agreement==
In ], the American ] (EPA) released the "Climate Action Report 2002". Some observers have interpreted this report as being supportive of the protocol, although the report itself does not explicitly endorse the protocol. Later that year, Congressional researchers who examined the legal status of the Protocol advised that signature of the UNFCCC imposes an obligation to refrain from undermining the Protocol's object and purpose, and that while the President probably cannot implement the Protocol alone, Congress can create compatible laws on its own initiative.
The agreement is a protocol to the ] (UNFCCC) adopted at the ] in ] in 1992, which did not set any legally binding limitations on emissions or enforcement mechanisms. Only Parties to the UNFCCC can become Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.


National emission targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use ], ], and ] (LULUCF) in meeting their targets.<ref name="Dessai 2001 3">{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=3}}</ref> LULUCF activities are also called "sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate,<ref>{{citation
The White House has come under criticism for downplaying reports that link human activity and greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and that a White House official and former oil industry advocate, Philip Cooney, adjusted descriptions of climate research that had already been approved by government scientists. The White House has denied that Philip Cooney watered down reports. In June 2005, State Department papers showed the administration thanking ] executives for the company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, including the US stance on Kyoto. Input from the business lobby group ] was also a factor.
|chapter-url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/annexessglossary-j-p.html
|title = Glossary: Land use and Land-use change
|chapter = Annex II
|editor = Baede, A.P.M.
|access-date = 28 May 2010
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100501184723/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/annexessglossary-j-p.html
|archive-date = 1 May 2010
|url-status = dead
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 SYR|2007}}</ref> and indeed the ]'s Special Report on ] estimates that since 1750 a third of global warming has been caused by land use change.<ref>Robert T. Watson, Ian R. Noble, Bert Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, David J. Verardo and David J. Dokken (editors), 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Cambridge University Press, UK</ref> Particular criteria apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.


], ] management, ] land management, and ] are all eligible LULUCF activities under the Protocol.<ref name="forest management">
At the ] meeting in June 2005 administration officials expressed a desire for "practical commitments industrialized countries can meet without damaging their economies". According to those same officials, the United States is on track to fulfill its pledge to reduce its ] 18 percent by 2012.
{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=9}}
Paul Krugman notes that the use of "carbon intensity" means the target reduction of 18 percent is still actually an increase in overall emissions.
</ref> Annex I Parties use of forest management in meeting their targets is capped.<ref name="forest management" />


=== First commitment period: 2008–2012 ===
The position Bush has taken on climate change has shifted with a gradual increasing acceptance that global warming is a problem, and that it is partly caused by human activity. The United States has signed the ], a pact allows those countries to set their goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions individually, but with no enforcement mechanism. Supporters of the pact see it as complementing the Kyoto Protocol whilst being more flexible whilst critics have said the pact will be ineffective without any enforcement measures. Nine north-eastern states and in California, Republican Governor ], along with 187 mayors from US towns and cities, have pledged to adopt Kyoto style legal limits on greenhouse gas emissions.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, 37 ] and the ] (the ]-15, made up of 15 states at the time of the Kyoto negotiations) commit themselves to binding targets for GHG emissions.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol overview" /> The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases ] ({{CO2}}), ] ({{chem2|CH4}}), ] ({{chem2|N2O}}), ] ({{chem2|SF6}}), and two groups of gases, ]s (HFCs) and ]s (PFCs).<ref name="grubb kyoto gases">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=147}}
</ref> The six GHG are translated into ] in determining reductions in emissions.<ref>The benchmark 1990 emission levels accepted by the ] of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3) were the values of "]" calculated for the ]. These figures are used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable ] (CO<sub>2</sub>-eq) when computing overall sources and sinks. Source: {{cite web |date=25 March 1998 |title=Methodological issues related to the Kyoto protocol |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop3/07a01.pdf#page=31 |access-date=13 February 2010 |publisher=Report of the Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |archive-date=23 August 2000 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20000823193833/http://www.unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop3/07a01.pdf#page=31 |url-status=live }}</ref> These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases, ]s, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 ].


Under the Protocol, only the Annex I Parties have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) – Article 4.1).<ref name="unfccc1997">{{cite press release |url=http://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/info/indust.htm |title=Industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% |publisher=] |date=11 December 1997 |access-date=6 August 2007 |archive-date=14 October 2007 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071014231213/http://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/info/indust.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> Parties to the Kyoto Protocol not listed in Annex I of the convention (the non-Annex I Parties) are mostly low-income developing countries,<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary" />{{Rp|4|date=November 2012}} and may participate in the Kyoto Protocol through the Clean Development Mechanism (explained below).<ref name="grubb commitments" />
=== Position of Canada ===
On ], ], ] ratified the treaty. While numerous polls have shown support for the Kyoto protocol around 70% , there is still some opposition, particularly by some business groups, non-governmental climate scientists and energy concerns, using arguments similar to those being used in the US. There is also a fear that since US companies will not be affected by the Kyoto Protocol that Canadian companies will be at a disadvantage in terms of trade.


The emissions limitations of Annex I Parties varies between different Parties.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets">{{cite web |title=Kyoto Protocol - Targets for the first commitment period |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-kyoto-protocol/what-is-the-kyoto-protocol/kyoto-protocol-targets-for-the-first-commitment-period |access-date=28 January 2019 |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |archive-date=26 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230926060848/https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-kyoto-protocol/what-is-the-kyoto-protocol/kyoto-protocol-targets-for-the-first-commitment-period |url-status=live }}</ref> Some Parties have emissions limitations reduce below the base year level, some have limitations at the base year level (no permitted increase above the base year level), while others have limitations above the base year level.
], the result has been limited to an ongoing &quot;war of words&quot;, primarily between the government of ] (Canada's primary oil and gas producer) and the federal government. However, there are fears that Kyoto ], ].


Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping.<ref name="shippingandaviation">
To mitigate these threats, it appears that the federal government will ask for additional credits for &quot;clean&quot; fuels sold to the United States, most notably natural gas.
{{citation |last=Adam |first=David |title=UK to seek pact on shipping and aviation pollution at climate talks |date=2 December 2007 |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/dec/03/climatechange.greenpolitics |work=The Guardian}}
</ref> Although Belarus and Turkey are listed in the convention's Annex I, they do not have emissions targets as they were not Annex I Parties when the Protocol was adopted.<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets" /> Kazakhstan does not have a target, but has declared that it wishes to become an Annex I Party to the convention.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Proposal to amend Annexes I and II to remove the name of Turkey and to amend Annex I to add the name of Kazakhstan |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/history-of-the-convention/proposal-to-amend-annexes-i-and-ii-to-remove-the-name-of-turkey-and-to-amend-annex-i-to-add-the-name |access-date=2020-04-22 |website=unfccc.int |archive-date=28 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728202017/https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/history-of-the-convention/proposal-to-amend-annexes-i-and-ii-to-remove-the-name-of-turkey-and-to-amend-annex-i-to-add-the-name |url-status=live }}</ref>


{{hidden begin|title=Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol, their 2008–2012 commitments as % of base year, and 1990 emission levels (% of all Annex I countries)<ref name="2011 unfccc kyoto protocol targets" /><ref>{{cite web
=== Position of Australia ===
|date = 12 November 2009
Australia has refused to sign the Agreement due to issues with the protocol. The Australian Prime Minister, ], has argued that the protocol would cost Australians jobs, and that Australia is already doing enough to cut emissions. The Federal Opposition, the ] is in full support of the protocol and it is currently a heavily debated issue within the political establishment. Australia is the world's second-largest emitter per capita of greenhouse gases.
|title = Kyoto burden-sharing targets for EU-15 countries
|publisher = European Environment Agency (EEA)
|url = https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/kyoto-burden-sharing-targets-for-eu-15-countries
|access-date = 28 January 2019
|archive-date = 22 December 2018
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20181222030424/https://www.eea.europa.eu//data-and-maps/figures/kyoto-burden-sharing-targets-for-eu-15-countries
|url-status = live
}}</ref>}}
{|
|-
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
] – 108% (2.1% of 1990 emissions) <br />
] – 87% <br />
] – 95% (subject to acceptance by other parties)<br />
] – 92.5% <br />
] – 92% (0.6%) <br />
] – 94% (3.33%) (withdrew) <br />
] – 95% () <br />
] – 92% (1.24%) <br />
] – 79% <br />
] – 92% (0.28%)
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
] – 100% <br />
] – 100% <br />
] – 79% <br />
] – 125% <br />
] – 94% (0.52%) <br />
] – 110% (0.02%) <br />
] – 113% <br />
] – 93.5% <br />
] – 94% (8.55%) <br />
] – 92% (0.17%)
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
] – 92% (0.0015%) <br />
] – 92% <br />
] – 72% <br />
] – 94% <br />
] – 100% (0.19%) <br />
] – 101% (0.26%) <br />
] – 94% (3.02%) <br />
] – 92% <br />
] – 92% (1.24%)
| style="width:25%; vertical-align:top;"|
] – 100% (17.4%) <br />
] – 92% (0.42%) <br />
] – 92% <br />
] – 115% <br />
] – 104% <br />
] – 92% (0.32%) <br />
] – 100% <br />
] – 87.5% <br />
] – 93% (36.1%) (non-party)
|}
{{hidden end}}


For most state parties, 1990 is the base year for the national GHG inventory and the calculation of the assigned amount.<ref name="2008 unfccc kyoto protocol reference manual">{{citation |author=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) |title=Kyoto Protocol Reference Manual On Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf |page=55 |year=2008 |location=Bonn, Germany |publisher=Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC) |isbn=978-92-9219-055-2 |access-date=30 December 2011 |archive-date=29 April 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100429230813/http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> However, five state parties have an alternative base year:<ref name="2008 unfccc kyoto protocol reference manual" />
The Australian government, along with the United States, agreed to sign the ] at the ] regional forum on ] ].
* Bulgaria: 1988;
* Hungary: the average of the years 1985–1987;
* Poland: 1988;
* Romania: 1989;
* Slovenia: 1986.


Annex I Parties can use a range of sophisticated "flexibility" mechanisms (see below) to meet their targets. Annex I Parties can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying ] from other operators which have excess emissions credits.
===Position of India===
India signed and ratified the Protocol in ], ]. Since India is exempted from the framework of the treaty, it is expected to gain from the protocol in terms of transfer of technology and related foreign investments. At the ] meeting in June 2005, Indian Prime Minister ] pointed out that the per-capita emission rates of the developing countries are a tiny fraction of those in the developed world. Following the principle of ''common but differentiated responsibility'', India maintains that the major responsibility of curbing emission rests with the developed countries, which have accumulated emissions over a long period of time.


===Negotiations===
== Common but differentiated responsibility ==
The position of some industrialized nations on developing countries has often been criticized in the developing world. For example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to a set of a "common but differentiated responsibilities." The parties agreed that


{{See also|Views on the Kyoto Protocol#Commentaries on negotiations}}
#The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries;
#Per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;
#The share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs.


Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to " the lead" in reducing emissions.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target">
In other words, China, India, and other developing countries were exempt from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol because they were not the main contributors to the greenhouse gas emissions during the industrialization period that is believed to be causing today's climate change.
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=144}}
</ref> The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by 2000.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"/> The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto moved to binding commitments.<ref name="grubb original unfccc target"/>


At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the ] was able to push for a mandate (the "Berlin mandate") where it was recognized that:<ref name="liverman berlin mandate">
== Support for Kyoto ==
{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}
Advocates of the Kyoto Protocol claim that reducing these emissions is crucially important; ], they believe, is causing the earth's atmosphere to heat up (see ]). This is supported by ].
</ref>
* developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere (see ]).
* developing country emissions per-capita (i.e., average emissions per head of population)<ref>{{citation
| title=Table A1: Energy-related emissions: Indicator: per capita (metric tons)
| chapter=Part II: Selected Development Indicators
| chapter-url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Statistical-Annex.pdf
| access-date=31 August 2012
| archive-date=1 November 2012
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121101133001/http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Statistical-Annex.pdf
| url-status=live
}}, in {{harvnb|World Bank|2010|p=370}}</ref> were still relatively low.
* and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.
During negotiations, the G-77 represented 133 developing countries. China was not a member of the group but an associate.<ref>
{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}
</ref> It has since become a member.<ref>
{{harvnb|G-77|2011}}
</ref>


The Berlin mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period.<ref name="liverman berlin mandate"/> However, the large potential for growth in developing country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions">
The governments of all of the countries whose parliaments have ratified the Protocol are supporting it. Most prominent among advocates of Kyoto have been the European Union and many ] organizations. The United Nations and some individual nations' scientific advisory bodies (including the ] national science academies) have also issued reports favoring the Kyoto Protocol.
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|pp=145–146}}
</ref> In the final agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"/> The general assumption was that developing countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet their first round commitments.<ref name="grubb developing country emissions"/>


====Emissions cuts====
An international day of action is planned for ] ], to coincide with the Meeting of the Parties in Montreal. The planned demonstrations are endorsed by the Assembly of Movements of the ].
].]]
[[File:Overview map of states committed to greenhouse gas limitations in the first Kyoto Protocol period (years 2008-2012) (greyscale).png|thumb|upright=1.8|alt=Refer to caption|Overview map of states committed to greenhouse gas (GHG) limitations in the first Kyoto Protocol period (2008–12):<ref>{{cite web | date=n.d. | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php | title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Annex B | publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | access-date= 8 October 2011}}</ref><br />
{{legend|#000000|Annex I Parties who have agreed to reduce their GHG emissions below their individual base year levels (see definition in this article)}}
{{legend|#737373|Annex I Parties who have agreed to cap their GHG emissions at their base year levels}} {{legend|#f2f2f2|Non-Annex I Parties who are not obligated by caps or Annex I Parties with an emissions cap that allows their emissions to expand above their base year levels or countries that have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol}}
<br />
For specific emission reduction commitments of Annex I Parties, see the section of the article on ].<br />
<br />
The European Union as a whole has, in accordance with this treaty, committed itself to a reduction of 8%. However, many member states (such as Greece, Spain, Ireland and Sweden) have not committed themselves to any reduction while France has committed itself not to expand its emissions (0% reduction).<ref>{{cite web |title=Kyoto 1st commitment period (2008–12) |url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/progress/kyoto_1_en |website=] |access-date=2020-03-15 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161221064248/https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/progress/kyoto_1_en |archive-date=2016-12-21 |url-status=unfit}}</ref>]]
There were multiple emissions cuts ] during negotiations. The G77 and China were in favour of strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world.<ref name="liverman negotiations">
{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=291}}
</ref> The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations of the first.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=148}}
</ref> In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than 2005.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"/> Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the subsequent period.<ref name="grubb second round negotiations"/>


The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – {{CO2}}, {{chem2|CH4}}, and {{chem2|N2O}} – with other gases such as HFCs regulated separately.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/>
A group of major Canadian corporations have recently called for urgent action regarding climate change, and have suggested that Kyoto is only a first step.


The most vulnerable nations – the ] (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> Countries that had supported differentiation of targets had different ideas as to how it should be calculated, and many different indicators were proposed.<ref name="grubb differentiation"/> Two examples include differentiation of targets based on ] (GDP), and differentiation based on ] (energy use per unit of economic output).<ref name="grubb differentiation">
=== Grassroots support in the US ===
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=151}}
</ref>


The final targets negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises.<ref name="liverman negotiations"/> The targets closely match those decided by Argentinian Raul Estrada, the ] who chaired the negotiations.<ref>
In the US, there is at least one student group ] which aims to use student interest to support pressure towards reducing emissions as targeted by the Kyoto Protocol compliance.
{{harvnb|Depledge|2000|p=46}}
</ref> The numbers given to each Party by Chairman Estrada were based on targets already pledged by Parties, information received on latest negotiating positions, and the goal of achieving the strongest possible environmental outcome.<ref>
{{harvnb|Depledge|2000|p=44}}
</ref> The final targets are weaker than those proposed by some Parties, e.g., the ] and the G-77 and China, but stronger than the targets proposed by others, e.g., Canada and the United States.<ref>
{{harvnb|Depledge|2000|p=45}}
</ref>


==== Relation to temperature targets ====
As of ], ], nine Northeastern US states are involved in the ] (RGGI) , which is a state level emissions capping and trading program. It is believed that the state-level program will indirectly apply pressure on the federal government by demonstrating that reductions can be achieved without being a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol.
At the ] held in 2010, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed that future global warming should be limited ] relative to the pre-industrial temperature level.<ref>{{citation |author=] (UNFCCC) |title=Conference of the Parties - Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4 |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2 |page=3 |year=2011 |location=], ] |publisher=UNFCCC Secretariat |format=PDF |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-date=13 January 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200113095453/https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2 |url-status=live }}</ref> One of the stabilization levels discussed in relation to this temperature target is to hold atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at 450 ] (ppm) {{CO2}}- eq.<ref>{{citation |author=] (IEA) |title=World Energy Outlook 2010 |page=380 |year=2010 |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120715234406/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo2010.pdf |url-status=dead |chapter=13. Energy and the ultimate climate change target |chapter-url=http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo2010.pdf |location=Paris, France |publisher=IEA |isbn=978-92-64-08624-1 |archive-date=15 July 2012 |title-link=World Energy Outlook}}</ref> Stabilization at 450&nbsp;ppm could be associated with a 26 to 78% risk of exceeding the 2&nbsp;°C target.<ref>{{citation |last1=Levin |first1=K. |title=Working Paper: Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges |date=February 2010 |url=http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/comparability_of_annex1_emission_reduction_pledges_2010-02-01.pdf |page=16 |location=Washington DC, USA |publisher=] |last2=Bradley |first2=R. |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-date=13 May 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130513000602/http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/comparability_of_annex1_emission_reduction_pledges_2010-02-01.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref>
* '''Participating states''': ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ].
* '''Observer states and regions''': ], ], ], ].


Scenarios assessed by Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios">{{citation |last1=Gupta |first1=S. |title=Box 13.7 The range of the difference between emissions in 1990 and emission allowances in 2020/2050 for various GHG concentration levels for Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group |df=dmy-all |access-date=17 July 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121210151654/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-3.html |url-status=dead |chapter=Chapter 13: Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements |chapter-url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-3.html |display-authors=etal |archive-date=10 December 2012}}
As of ], ], 165 US cities representing 35 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor ] of ] started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}</ref> suggest that Annex I emissions would need to be 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The only Annex I Parties to have made voluntary pledges in line with this are Japan (25% below 1990 levels by 2020) and Norway (30–40% below 1990 levels by 2020).<ref>
*'''Large participating cities''': ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ]
{{citation |author=King, D. |title=International climate change negotiations: Key lessons and next steps |date=July 2011 |url=http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf |page=12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120113033748/http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf |url-status=dead |chapter=Copenhagen and Cancun |location=Oxford, UK |publisher=Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford |display-authors=etal |archive-date=13 January 2012}}
</ref>


Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="450ppm scenarios" /> also looked at what 450&nbsp;ppm scenarios projected for non-Annex I Parties. Projections indicated that by 2020, non-Annex I emissions in several regions (], the ], ], and ] ]) would need to be substantially reduced below ].<ref name="450ppm scenarios" /> "Business-as-usual" are projected non-Annex I emissions in the absence of any new policies to control emissions. Projections indicated that by 2050, emissions in all non-Annex I regions would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual".<ref name="450ppm scenarios" />
== Opposition to Kyoto ==


===Financial commitments===
The two major countries currently opposed to the treaty are the USA and Australia, based on the public statements of both governments and the US Senate.
Some public policy experts who are skeptical of the ] see Kyoto as a scheme to either retard the growth of the world's industrial democracies or to transfer wealth to the ] in what they claim is a global ] initiative.


The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in ]. One such project is ],<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.adaptation-fund.org/|title=AF - Adaptation Fund|website=www.adaptation-fund.org|access-date=20 June 2011|archive-date=1 January 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110101083317/http://www.adaptation-fund.org/|url-status=live}}</ref> which has been established by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
Some critics say there are problems with the underlying science (see ]).


===Implementation provisions===
Some critics state that the protocol will prevent or damage economic growth.
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties ] of the UNFCCC, which attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in ] in late 2000, but it was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union (who favoured a tougher implementation) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia (who wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).
:* American Council for Capital Formation
:* United States Department of Energy
:* National Bank of New Zealand


In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6-bis) was held in ],<ref>], {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728204839/https://enb.iisd.org/climate/cop6bis/ |date=28 July 2020 }}, accessed 27 May 2020</ref> where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the ]) managed to secure the agreement of Japan and ] by allowing more use of ].
The 1997 ] called the Kyoto Protocol "dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive to jobs and standards-of-living". However, most of the signers of the Leipzig Declaration were non-scientists or lacked credentials in the specific field of climate research.


] was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in ] to establish the final details of the protocol.
Some argue that the protocol does not go far enough to curb greenhouse emissions (], The ], and ] added notes to this effect when signing the protocol ), and the standards it sets would be ineffective at curbing or slowing climate change. In addition, there have been recent scientific challenges to the idea of carbon credits, planting "Kyoto forests" or ]s to reduce total carbon dioxide output. Recent evidence shows that this may in fact increase carbon dioxide emissions for the first 10 years, due to the growth pattern of young forests and the effect it has on soil-trapped carbon dioxide. Several industrial countries have made carbon credits an important part of their strategies for reducing their net greenhouse gas outputs, further calling into question the effectiveness of the protocols.


The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in ] from 28 November to 9 December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See ].
Additionally, some theorists predict that even if the world's leading industrial nations agree to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as mandated by the Kyoto Protocol, it is likely that there would be no net change in emissions worldwide. If the industrialized countries cut their demand for fossil fuels to meet the emission reduction responsibilties, the law of supply and demand would tend to cause the world prices of coal, oil and gas to go down, making fuel use more affordable for poorer nations. These theorists predict increased fuel use (primarily coal) in the "non-Annex I" countries, tending to offset the reductions of the "Annex I" countries.


During COP13 in Bali, 36 developed ] countries (plus the EU as a party in the ]) agreed to a 10% emissions increase for ]; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,<ref>{{cite web | title=The Kyoto protocol – A brief summary | work=European Commission | url=http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/kyoto.htm | access-date=19 April 2007 | archive-date=10 August 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090810105055/http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/kyoto.htm | url-status=dead }}</ref> much larger increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below {{Section link||Increase in greenhouse gas emission since 1990}}).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/background/items/3145.php |title=Kyoto Protocol |publisher=UNFCCC |date=14 May 2008 |access-date=21 May 2009 |archive-date=13 May 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080513194415/http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/background/items/3145.php |url-status=live }}</ref> Reduction limitations expired in 2013.
It is argued by many that Kyoto fails to address larger issues of ]. While one may agree with establishing an international precedent for regulation of greenhouse gasses, failing to address other sustainability issues, such as typically rapid population growth among "non-Annex I" countries, suggests to some that Kyoto represents an anti-industrial agenda rather than a fair attempt to mitigate climate change. But the supporters of Kyoto emphasize the protocol is just deal with the greenhouse gas emission issues, and other sustainability issues should have other protocols to be addressed naturally, which is not be solved by Kyoto, one protocol, one time. This point is just to confuse the focus of greenhouse gas emission issues.


===Mechanism of compliance===
== Cost-benefit analysis ==


The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties for ]."<ref>{{cite web
It is possible to try to evaluate the Kyoto Protocol by ], though there are large uncertainties. Economic analyses disagree as to whether the Kyoto Protocol is more expensive than the global warming that it avoids; the recent ] project analysis found it to have an overall benefit, though less than an "optimal" carbon tax. Defenders of the Kyoto Protocol argue however that while the initial greenhouse gas cuts may have little effect, they set the political precedent for bigger (and more effective) cuts in the future. Also, they demonstrate commitment to the ].
|title=Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change
|first=S
|last=Maljean-Dubois
|work=Synthèse, n° 01, 2007
|publisher=Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations
|url=http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Syntheses/Compliance-with-the-Kyoto-Protocol-on-Climate-Change
|access-date=11 July 2008
|archive-date=10 November 2009
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091110071921/http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Syntheses/Compliance-with-the-Kyoto-Protocol-on-Climate-Change
|url-status=dead
}}</ref> According to Grubb (2003),<ref name="grubb compliance">
{{harvnb|Grubb|2003|p=157}}
</ref> the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the treaty are weak compared to domestic law.<ref name="grubb compliance"/> Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the Marrakesh Accords.<ref name="grubb compliance"/>


===Monitoring emissions===
== Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate ==
Monitoring emissions in international agreements is tough as in international law, there is no police power, creating the incentive for states to find 'ways around' monitoring. The Kyoto Protocol regulated six sinks and sources of Gases. Carbon dioxide, Methane, Nirous oxide, Hydroflurocarbons, Sulfur hexafluouride and Perfluorocarbons. Monitoring these gases can become quite a challenge. Methane can be monitored and measured from irrigated rice fields and can be measured by the seedling growing up to harvest. Future implications state that this can be affected by more cost effective ways to control emissions as changes in types of fertilizer can reduce emissions by 50%. In addition to this, many countries are unable to monitor certain ways of carbon absorption through trees and soils to an accurate level.<ref>Victor, David G. The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming. Princeton, N.J., Princeton University Press, 2004.</ref>


===Enforcing emission cuts===
The '''Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate''' is an agreement between six ] nations: ], the ], ], ], ], and the ]. It was introduced at the ] (ASEAN), regional forum on ], ]. The pact allows those countries to set their goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions individually, but with no enforcement mechanism. Supporters of the pact see it as complementing the Kyoto Protocol whilst being more flexible whilst critics have said the pact will be ineffective without any enforcement measures. ''See article'' ]


If the enforcement branch determines that an Annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference during the second commitment period plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program.<ref>{{cite web
==See also==
| url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_mechanisms/compliance/introduction/items/3024.php
{{wikisource}}
{{wikinews|Kyoto Protocol comes into effect}} | title=An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Compliance Mechanism
| publisher=UNFCC
*]
| access-date=30 October 2006
*]
| archive-date=14 May 2021
*]
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210514012212/https://unfccc.int/kyoto_mechanisms/compliance/introduction/items/3024.php
*]
| url-status=live
*]
}}</ref>
*]
*]
*]
*]


==Ratification process==
==References==
===Countries that ratified the Protocol===
* ACCF {{Web reference | title=The Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Economic Growth and Projected Budget Surpluses | url=http://www.accf.org/publications/testimonies/test-impactkyoto-march25-1999.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
The Protocol was adopted by ] of UNFCCC on 11 December 1997 in ], ]. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for signature during one year by parties to ], when it was signed Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, the Maldives, Samoa, St. Lucia and Switzerland. At the end of the signature period, 82 countries and the ] had signed. ] (which is required to become a party to the Protocol) started on 17 September with ratification by Fiji. Countries that did not sign acceded to the convention, which has the same legal effect.<ref name=parties/>
* Alternet.org {{Web reference | title=AlterNet: George W. Bush: The Un-science Guy | url=http://www.alternet.org/story/11054/ | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* BBC-1 {{Citenews | org=BBC | title=Bush aide 'edited climate papers' | url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4075986.stm | date=November 15 2005 }}
* BBC-2 {{Citenews | org=BBC | title='Gas muzzlers' challenge Bush | url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4400534.stm | date=November 15 2005 }}
* CBC {{Citenews | title=Business leaders call for climate change action | org=CBC | date=17 November 2005 | url=http://www.cbc.ca/story/business/national/2005/11/17/kyotobiz-051117.html }}
* Climnet {{Web reference | title=CAN Europe: Ratification Calendar - up-to-date score on ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, time-table and dates of events and decisions up until the WSSD Johannesburg summit and beyond | url=http://www.climnet.org/EUenergy/ratification/calendar.htm | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* DOE-2 {{Web reference | title=Summary of the Kyoto Report - Part I | url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/kyotobrf.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* DOE.gov-China {{Web reference | title=China Country Analysis Brief | url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* DOE.gov-USA {{Web reference | title=United States Country Analysis Brief | url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Ekos.com {{Web reference | title=Public Attitudes Towards the Kyoto Protocol | url=http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/10June02KyotoProt.pdf | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Globefox {{Web reference | title=Global Climate Climate | url=http://www.globefox.com/cacc/globalclimatecampaign.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Grida.no {{Web reference | title=Executive Summary. Chapter 9: Projections of Future Climate Change | work=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/339.htm | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Guardian {{Web reference | title=Special reports: Revealed: how oil giant influenced Bush | url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1501646,00.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* IIASA {{Web reference | title=Appendix: All Tables | url=http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gkh1/alltab.htm | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* IPSOS-NA {{Web reference | title=Support (74%) Remains High for Kyoto Protocol . . . | url=http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=1667 | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Mosnews.com {{Web reference | title=Russian Government Approves Kyoto Protocol Ratification - MONEY - MOSNEWS.COM | url=http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/09/30/kyotoapproved.shtml | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* NY Times {{Web reference | first=Paul | last=Krugman | title=Ersatz Climate Policy | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/15/opinion/15KRUG.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Opencrs.com {{Web reference | first=David M. | last=Ackerman | title=Global Climate Change: Selected Legal Questions About the Kyoto Protocol | url=http://www.opencrs.com/getfile.php?rid=33856 | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Pdf.wri.org {{Web reference | title= "Getting It Right: Emerging Markets for Storing Carbon in Forests" | url=http://pdf.wri.org/ftcarbonbro.pdf | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Planetark {{Web reference | title=Planet Ark : Kyoto pact could see weak NZ economic growth - NBNZ | url=http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/13519/newsDate/30-Nov-2001/story.htm | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* RGGI {{Web reference | title=Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) | url=http://www.rggi.org/ | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Ucar.edu {{Web reference | title=On the Record - NCAR/UCAR/UOP | url=http://www.ucar.edu/news/record/ | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* UNFCCC-2 {{Web reference | title=FULL TEXT OF THE CONVENTION, ARTICLE 2 | work=The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* UNFCCC-4 {{Web reference | title=FULL TEXT OF THE CONVENTION, ARTICLE 4 | work=The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1362.php | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* UNFCCC background {{Web reference | title=FULL TEXT OF THE CONVENTION | work=The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1349.php | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* UNFCCC.int {{Web reference | title=UNFCCC Status of Ratification | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* UNFCCC kpstats {{Web reference | title=Kyoto Protocol > Status of Ratification | url=http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstats.pdf | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* UoGuelph {{Web reference | title=Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties | url=http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/australia.pdf | format=PDF | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Washington Post {{Web reference | first=Juliet | last=Eilperin | title=Climate Plan Splits U.S. and Europe | url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/01/AR2005070101915.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}
* Whitehouse.gov {{Web reference | title= President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change | url=http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html | date=November 15 | year=2005 }}


Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in ] which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the ] countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."<ref>{{cite web|title=The Kyoto Protocol full text (PDF)|url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf|publisher=UNFCC Homepage|access-date=17 November 2004|archive-date=5 October 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111005085911/http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref>
== External links ==
===Protocol===
* ,
* - fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
* - List of countries who have ratified, accepted, approved, or accessed the Kyoto Protocol


The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.<ref>{{cite press release |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/02/794&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en |title=European Union ratifies the Kyoto Protocol |publisher=European Union |date=31 May 2002 |access-date=13 February 2010 |archive-date=17 December 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091217030944/http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/02/794&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en |url-status=live }}</ref> Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on 23 May 2002 when ] ratified the Protocol.<ref name=parties>{{cite web|title=Status of ratification|url=http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php|publisher=UNFCC Homepage|access-date=5 June 2012|archive-date=4 April 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160404010136/http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php|url-status=live}}</ref> The ratification by ] on 18 November 2004 satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of 90 days.<ref>{{cite web|last=West|first=Larry|title=What is the Kyoto Protocol|url=http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/i/kyotoprotocol.htm|publisher=About.com (Part of NYT)|access-date=5 June 2012|archive-date=2 March 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120302123655/http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/i/kyotoprotocol.htm|url-status=dead}}</ref>
===Implementation===

* . Source from the ]. Comprehensive analysis of China's recent economic development and its effects on Chinese emissions.
As of May 2013, ] and one regional economic organization (the ]) have ratified the agreement, representing over 61.6% of the 1990 emissions from ] countries.<ref name = "Kyoto-PDF-unfccc">{{cite web | title=Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification | url=http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf | date=14 January 2009 | access-date=6 May 2009 | publisher=] | archive-date=25 March 2009 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090325015751/http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf | url-status=live }}</ref> One of the 191 ratifying states—Canada—has renounced the protocol.
*

*
{{hidden begin|title=Convention Parties|titlestyle=text-align:left;|bodystyle=text-align:left;}}
* - Broadcast ] ] on ]' '']'' (] format).
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* - Article by Jamais Cascio on the Kyoto Protocol
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* - junkscience.com's Kyoto Protocol implementation cost claims, with counting clock.
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{{hidden end}}

===Non-ratification by the US===
The US signed the Protocol on 12 November 1998,<ref>{{cite web|title=Congressional Research Service Reports #98-349: Global Climate Change: Selected Legal Questions About the Kyoto Protocol|url=http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/ern/01jul/98-349.php|access-date=22 April 2014|archive-date=6 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506234653/http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/ern/01jul/98-349.php|url-status=dead}}</ref> during the ] presidency. To become binding in the US, however, the treaty had to be ratified by the ], which had already passed the 1997 non-binding ], expressing disapproval of any international agreement that did not require developing countries to make emission reductions and "would seriously harm the economy of the United States". The resolution passed 95–0.<ref>Byrd-Hagel Resolution ({{cite web |url=http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html |title=Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98) Expressing the Sense of the Senate Regarding Conditions for the U.S. Signing the Global Climate Change Treaty |access-date=2014-12-14 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100626110143/http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html |archive-date=26 June 2010 |df=dmy-all }})</ref> Therefore, even though the ] signed the treaty,<ref> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090502014031/http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/12/11/kyoto/ |date=2 May 2009 }}. All Politics (CNN). 11 December 1997. Retrieved 5 November 2006.</ref> it was never submitted to the Senate for ratification.

At the outset of the ], Senators ], ], ], and ] wrote a letter to ] seeking to identify his position on the Kyoto Protocol and climate change policy.<ref>{{Cite web|title=ParlInfo - GRIEVANCE DEBATE: Environment: Greenhouse Policy|url=https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22chamber/hansardr/2001-03-26/0103%22|access-date=2020-08-24|website=parlinfo.aph.gov.au}}</ref> In a letter dated March 13, 2001, President Bush responded that his "Administration takes the issue of global climate change very seriously", but that "I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns."<ref>{{Cite web|title=Text of a Letter From The President|url=https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/03/20010314.html|access-date=2020-08-24|website=georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov|archive-date=22 July 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090722073329/http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/03/20010314.html|url-status=live}}</ref> The administration also questioned the scientific certainty around climate change and cited potential harms of emissions reduction to the US economy.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Dessler |first=Andrew E. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Ivw7EAAAQBAJ |title=Introduction to Modern Climate Change |date=2021 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |isbn=978-1-108-84018-7 |pages=234 |language=en}}</ref>

The ] for Climate Change Research reported in 2001:<blockquote>This policy reversal received a massive wave of criticism that was quickly picked up by the international media. Environmental groups blasted the White House, while Europeans and Japanese alike expressed deep concern and regret. ... Almost all world leaders (e.g. China, Japan, South Africa, Pacific Islands, etc.) expressed their disappointment at Bush's decision.<ref name="Dessai 2001 5–6">{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|pp=5–6}}</ref></blockquote>In response to this criticism, Bush stated: "I was responding to reality, and reality is the nation has got a real problem when it comes to energy". The Tyndall Centre called this "an overstatement used to cover up the big benefactors of this policy reversal, i.e., the US oil and coal industry, which has a powerful lobby with the administration and conservative ] congressmen."<ref name="Dessai 2001 5–6"/>

As of 2023, the US is the only signatory that has not ratified the Protocol.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en|title=United Nations Treaty Collection|website=treaties.un.org|access-date=27 December 2014|archive-date=8 October 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181008095709/https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&lang=en|url-status=dead}}</ref> The US accounted for 36.1% of emissions in 1990.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Weiner |first1=John Barlow |last2=Bankobeza |first2=Gilbert |last3=Block |first3=Kitty |last4=Fraenkel |first4=Amy |last5=Hobgood |first5=Teresa |last6=Mattice |first6=Alice |last7=Wagner |first7=David W. |date=2003 |title=International Environmental Law |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/40707857 |journal=The International Lawyer |volume=37 |issue=2 |pages=575–587 |jstor=40707857 |issn=0020-7810 |access-date=27 June 2022 |archive-date=27 June 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220627045357/https://www.jstor.org/stable/40707857 |url-status=live }}</ref> As such, for the treaty to go into legal effect without US ratification, it would require a coalition including the EU, Russia, Japan, and small parties. A deal, without the US Administration, was reached in the Bonn climate talks (COP-6.5), held in 2001.<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|pp=5–10}}</ref>

===Withdrawal of Canada===

{{Main|Kyoto Protocol and government action#Withdrawal of Canada}}
{{See also|Canada and the Kyoto Protocol}}

In 2011, Canada, Japan and Russia stated that they would not take on further Kyoto targets.<ref name=canadaguardian>{{cite web
|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-pulls-out-kyoto-protocol
|title=Canada pulls out of Kyoto protocol
|work=The Guardian
|access-date=13 December 2011
|date=13 December 2011
|archive-date=17 December 2019
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191217115504/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-pulls-out-kyoto-protocol
|url-status=live
}}</ref> The Canadian government announced its withdrawal—possible at any time three years after ratification—from the Kyoto Protocol on 12 December 2011, effective 15 December 2012.<ref>{{cite web
|url=https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1100802--canada-withdrawing-from-kyoto?bn=1#article
|title=Canada withdrawing from Kyoto
|work=The Toronto Star
|date=12 December 2011
|access-date=12 December 2011
|archive-date=7 January 2012
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120107231408/http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1100802--canada-withdrawing-from-kyoto?bn=1#article
|url-status=live
}}</ref> Canada was committed to cutting its greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, but in 2009 emissions were 17% higher than in 1990. The ] government prioritized oil sands development in Alberta, and deprioritized the reduction of greenhouse emissions. Environment minister ] cited Canada's liability to "enormous financial penalties" under the treaty unless it withdrew.<ref name=canadaguardian/><ref>{{cite news
|url = http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/13/canada-to-pull-out-of-kyoto-protocol/
|title = Canada to pull out of Kyoto protocol
|agency = Reuters
|newspaper = Financial Post
|first1 = David
|last1 = Ljunggren
|first2 = Randall
|last2 = Palmer
|date = 13 December 2011
|access-date = 9 January 2012
|archive-date = 9 January 2012
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120109011937/http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/13/canada-to-pull-out-of-kyoto-protocol/
|url-status = live
}}</ref> He also suggested that the recently signed ] may provide an alternative way forward.<ref name="bbc canada withdrawal">{{cite news
|title=Canada under fire over Kyoto protocol exit
|newspaper=BBC News
|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16165033
|date=13 December 2011
|access-date=22 June 2018
|archive-date=19 November 2018
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181119061022/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16165033
|url-status=live
}}</ref> The Harper government claimed it would find a "Made in Canada" solution. Canada's decision received a generally negative response from representatives of other ratifying countries.<ref name="bbc canada withdrawal"/>

===Other states and territories where the treaty was not applicable===
Andorra, ], ], the United States and, following their withdrawal on 15 December 2012, Canada are the only UNFCCC Parties that are not party to the Protocol. Furthermore, the Protocol is not applied to UNFCCC observer the ]. Although the ] approved the protocol for the whole Kingdom, it did not deposit an instrument of ratification for Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten or the ].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.minbuza.nl/en/key-topics/treaties/search-the-treaty-database/1997/12/008415.html|work=]|title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|access-date=30 December 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140203014400/http://www.minbuza.nl/en/key-topics/treaties/search-the-treaty-database/1997/12/008415.html|archive-date=3 February 2014|url-status=dead}}</ref>

== Country types and their emissions ==
{{See also|List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita|List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions|GHG Protocol Corporate Standard}}

===Annex I countries===
Total aggregate GHG emissions excluding emissions/removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF, i.e., carbon storage in forests and soils) for all Annex I Parties (see list below) including the United States taken together decreased from 19.0 to 17.8 thousand ] (Tg, which is equal to 10<sup>9</sup>&nbsp;kg) {{CO2}} equivalent, a decline of 6.0% during the 1990–2008 period.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications">{{citation
| year=2011
| author=] (UNFCCC)
| title=Compilation and synthesis of fifth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the secretariat.
| url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sbi/eng/inf01.pdf
| publisher=United Nations Office at Geneva
| location=Geneva (Switzerland)
| access-date=9 December 2011
| archive-date=23 April 2022
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220423082034/http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sbi/eng/inf01.pdf
| url-status=live
}}</ref>{{Rp|3|date=November 2012}} Several factors have contributed to this decline.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} The first is due to the economic restructuring in the Annex I Economies in Transition<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} (the EITs – see ] for the list of EITs). Over the period 1990–1999, emissions fell by 40% in the EITs following the collapse of ] in the former ] and ] countries.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions">{{citation
|title=Long-term trend in global {{CO2}} emissions; 2011 report
|date=21 September 2011
|last1=Olivier
|first1=J. G. J.
|url=http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/C02%20Mondiaal_%20webdef_19sept.pdf
|publisher=PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC)
|location=The Hague, Netherlands
|isbn=978-90-78645-68-9
|display-authors=etal
|access-date=9 December 2011
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111221123511/http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/C02%20Mondiaal_%20webdef_19sept.pdf
|archive-date=21 December 2011
|url-status=dead
}} PBL publication number 500253004. JRC Technical Note number JRC65918.</ref>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} This led to a massive contraction of their heavy industry-based economies, with associated reductions in their fossil fuel consumption and emissions.{{sfn|Carbon Trust|2009|p=24}}

Emissions growth in Annex I Parties have also been limited due to policies and measures (PaMs).<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} In particular, PaMs were strengthened after 2000, helping to enhance energy efficiency and develop renewable energy sources.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}} Energy use also decreased during the economic crisis in 2007–2008.<ref name="2011 unfccc synthesis of annex I communications"/>{{Rp|14|date=November 2012}}

====Annex I parties with targets====
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+ Percentage changes in emissions from the base year (1990 for most countries) for Annex I Parties with Kyoto targets
! Country !! Kyoto<br />target<br />2008–2012<ref name="Shislov" /> !! Kyoto<br />target<br />2013–2020<ref>{{cite web | url=https://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kp_doha_amendment_english.pdf | title=Doha amendment to the Kyoto Protocol | date=2012 | publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | access-date=2019-12-13 | archive-date=24 December 2022 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221224054705/http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kp_doha_amendment_english.pdf | url-status=live }}</ref> !! GHG<br />emissions<br />2008–2012<br />including<br />]<ref name="Shislov" /> !! GHG<br />emissions<br />2008–2012<br />excluding<br />LULUCF<ref name="Shislov" />
|-
| ] || +8 || −0.5 || +3.2 || +30.3
|-
| ] || −13 || −20 || +3.2 || +4.9
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −13.9 || −14.0
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −53.4 || −52.8
|-
| ] (withdrew) || −6 || ''N/A'' || +18.5 || +18.5
|-
| ] || −5 || −20 || −10.8 || −7.5
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −30.6 || −30.0
|-
| ] || −21 || −20 || −17.3 || −14.8
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −54.2 || −55.3
|-
| ] || 0 || −20 || −5.5 || −4.7
|-
| ] || 0 || −20 || −10.5 || −10.0
|-
| ] || −21 || −20 || −24.3 || −23.6
|-
| ] || +25 || −20 || +11.5 || +11.9
|-
| ] || −6 || −20 || −43.7 || −41.8
|-
| ] || +10 || −20 || +10.2 || +19.4
|-
| ] || +13 || −20 || +11.0 || +5.1
|-
| ] || −6 || −20 || −7.0 || −4.0
|-
| ] || −6 || ''N/A'' || −2.5 || +1.4
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −61.2 || −56.4
|-
| ] || −8 || −16 || +4.1 || +2.4
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −57.9 || −55.6
|-
| ] || −28 || −20 || −9.3 || −8.7
|-
| ] || −8 || −22 || −12.5 || −12.5
|-
| ] || −6 || −20 || −6.2 || −6.4
|-
| ] || 0 || ''N/A'' || −2.7 || +20.4
|-
| ] || +1 || −16 || +4.6 || +7.5
|-
| ] || −6 || −20 || −29.7 || −28.8
|-
| ] || +27 || −20 || +5.5 || +22.4
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −57.0 || −55.7
|-
| ] || 0 || ''N/A'' || −36.3 || −32.7
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −37.2 || −36.8
|-
| ] || −8 || −20 || −9.7 || −3.2
|-
| ] || +15 || −20 || +20.0 || +23.7
|-
| ] || +4 || −20 || −18.2 || −15.3
|-
| ] || −8 || −15.8 || −3.9 || −0.8
|-
| ] || 0 || −24 || −57.1 || −56.6
|-
| ] || −13 || −20 || −23.0 || −22.6
|-
| ] (did not ratify) || −7 || ''N/A'' || +9.5 || +9.5
|}

]

Collectively the group of industrialized countries committed to a Kyoto target, i.e., the Annex I countries excluding the US, had a target of reducing their GHG emissions by 4.2% on average for the period 2008–2012 relative to the base year, which in most cases is 1990.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|24|date=November 2012}}

As noted in the preceding section, between 1990 and 1999, there was a large reduction in the emissions of the EITs.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} The reduction in the EITs is largely responsible for the total (aggregate) reduction (excluding LULUCF) in emissions of the Annex I countries, excluding the US.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} Emissions of the Annex II countries (Annex I minus the EIT countries) have experienced a limited increase in emissions from 1990 to 2006, followed by stabilization and a more marked decrease from 2007 onwards.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}} The emissions reductions in the early nineties by the 12 EIT countries who have since joined the EU, assist the present EU-27 in meeting its collective Kyoto target.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|25|date=November 2012}}

In December 2011, Canada's environment minister, ], formally announced that ] would withdraw from the Kyoto accord a day after the end of the ] (see the section on the ]).<ref name="vaughan 2011 canada withdrawal">{{cite web
| url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-withdrawal-kyoto-protocol?intcmp=239
| last= Vaughan
| first= A
| title= What does Canada's withdrawal from Kyoto protocol mean?
| work= The Guardian
| date= 13 December 2011
| access-date= 17 December 2011
| archive-date= 19 April 2015
| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20150419040405/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/dec/13/canada-withdrawal-kyoto-protocol?intcmp=239
| url-status= live
}}</ref>

====Annex I parties without Kyoto targets====
Belarus, Malta, and Turkey are Annex I Parties but did not have first-round Kyoto targets.<ref>{{citation
|title = CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2011 - Highlights
|year = 2011
|author = International Energy Agency (IEA)
|url = http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf
|publisher = IEA
|location = Paris, France
|page = 13
|access-date = 9 December 2011
|archive-date = 2 February 2012
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120202035728/http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf
|url-status = dead
}}</ref> The US had a Kyoto target of a 7% reduction relative to the 1990 level, but has not ratified the treaty.<ref name="Shislov" /> If the US had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the average percentage reduction in total GHG emissions for the Annex I group would have been a 5.2% reduction relative to the base year.<ref name="Long term trend in global CO2 emissions"/>{{Rp|26|date=November 2012}}

===Non-Annex I===

{{Multiple image
| direction = vertical
| align = right
| image1 = Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990-2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.png
| alt1 = Refer to caption
| image2 = Annual carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990-2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties.png
| alt2 = Refer to caption
| width = 200
| caption1 = Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions (i.e., average emissions per person) from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties
| caption2 = Annual carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties
}}

UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary">{{Citation
|date=25 October 2005
|author=UNFCCC
|title=Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. Document code FCCC/SBI/2005/18
|url=http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600003578#beg
|publisher=United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland
|access-date=20 May 2010
|archive-date=15 November 2023
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231115231850/http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600003578#beg
|url-status=live
}}</ref> Most non-Annex I Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|4|date=November 2012}} Most Parties included information on policies relating to ]. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|6|date=November 2012}} Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their ] to include global concerns such as climate change.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|7|date=November 2012}}

A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and ], stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions by Annex I Parties could adversely affect their economies.<ref name="2005 unfccc non-annex i summary"/>{{Rp|7|date=November 2012}} The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and export of ]s.

GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year 1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7&nbsp;billion tonnes (billion&nbsp;=&nbsp;1,000,000,000) of CO<sub>2</sub>-eq. CO<sub>2</sub> was the largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by ] (26%) and ] (N<sub>2</sub>O) (11%).

The ] was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8&nbsp;tonnes for the 122 non-Annex I Parties.
* The Africa region's ] emissions were 1.6&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4&nbsp;tonnes.
* The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.6&nbsp;tonnes.
* The Latin America and ] region's aggregate emissions were 2&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 4.6&nbsp;tonnes.
* The "other" region includes ], Armenia, ], Georgia, Malta, ], and ]. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, with per capita emissions of 5.1&nbsp;tonnes.

Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes, without LUCF, total aggregate emissions were 11.7&nbsp;billion&nbsp;tonnes.

==Problem areas==

=== Views and criticism of the Protocol ===
{{Main|Views on the Kyoto Protocol|Criticism of the Kyoto Protocol}}
{{Update section|date=June 2021}}
Gupta ''et al.'' (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem.<ref name=gupta>{{cite book
|year = 2007
|contribution = 13.3.1 Evaluations of existing climate change agreements. In (book chapter): Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements.
|title = Climate Change 2007: Mitigation.
|series = Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|editor = B. Metz
|display-editors = etal
|publisher = Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website
|last1 = Gupta
|first1 = S.
|url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-1.html
|access-date = 2 April 2010
|display-authors = etal
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100503040428/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-1.html
|archive-date = 3 May 2010
|url-status = dead
|df = dmy-all
}}</ref> In these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.

Gupta ''et al.'' (2007)<ref name="gupta kyoto assessment">{{citation
|last1 = Gupta
|first1 = S.
|chapter = Chapter 13: Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements
|chapter-url = http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-es.html
|title = Executive Summary
|display-authors = etal
|access-date = 31 August 2012
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120515123900/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-es.html
|archive-date = 15 May 2012
|url-status = dead
|df = dmy-all
}}
, in {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3|2007}}</ref> described the Kyoto first-round commitments as "modest", stating that they acted as a constraint on the treaty's effectiveness. It was suggested that subsequent Kyoto commitments could be made more effective with measures aimed at achieving deeper cuts in emissions, as well as having policies applied to a larger share of global emissions.<ref name="gupta kyoto assessment"/> In 2008, countries with a Kyoto cap made up less than one-third of annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fuel ].<ref>{{cite book
| title=CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions from Fuel Combustion - 2011 Highlights
| author=International Energy Agency (IEA)
| url=http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/CO2highlights.pdf
| publisher=IEA
| location=Paris, France
| page=12
| access-date=31 August 2012
| archive-date=2 February 2012
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120202035728/http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf
| url-status=dead
}}</ref>

World Bank (2010)<ref name="world bank kyoto comments">{{citation
| title=5. Integrating development into a global climate regime
| url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Chapter-5.pdf
| access-date=31 August 2012
| archive-date=12 June 2013
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130612091346/http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Chapter-5.pdf
| url-status=live
}}, in {{harvnb|World Bank|2010|p=233}}</ref> commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global emissions growth. The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but in 2006, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions had grown by 24%.<ref>{{citation
| title=5. Integrating development into a global climate regime
| url=http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Chapter-5.pdf
| access-date=31 August 2012
| archive-date=12 June 2013
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130612091346/http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/Chapter-5.pdf
| url-status=live
}}, in {{harvnb|World Bank|2010|p=248}}</ref> World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.<ref name="world bank kyoto comments"/>

Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town", and possibly because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions (Aldy ''et al.''., 2003, p.&nbsp;9).<ref name="aldy">{{cite journal
|title=Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures
|date=9 September 2003
|last1=Aldy
|first1=J. E.
|journal=Climate Policy
|volume=3
|issue=4
|pages=373–397
|url=https://www.feem.it/m/publications_pages/NDL2003-064.pdf
|access-date=2 April 2010
|doi=10.1016/j.clipol.2003.09.004
|bibcode=2003CliPo...3..373A
|display-authors=etal
|hdl=10419/118092
|s2cid=219598167
|archive-date=6 May 2020
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200506213826/https://www.feem.it/m/publications_pages/NDL2003-064.pdf
|url-status=live
}}</ref> In 2001, seventeen national science academies stated that ratification of the Protocol represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases."<ref>The joint-statement was made by the ], the ], the ], the ], the Caribbean Academy of Sciences, the ], the ], the ], the ], the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, the ], ] (Italy), the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, the ], the ], and the ] (UK). {{citation |author= |title=The Science of Climate Change (Joint statement by 17 National Science Academies) |date=17 May 2001 |url=http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf |location=London, UK |publisher=Royal Society |isbn=978-0854035588 |access-date=14 April 2013 |archive-date=19 April 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150419074652/https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf |url-status=live }}. Statement {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130513024522/http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2001/science-climate-change/ |date=13 May 2013 }} at the UK Royal Society. Also published as: {{citation |title=Joint statement: The Science of Climate Change (editorial) |date=18 May 2001 |journal=Science |volume=292 |issue=5520 |page=1261 |doi=10.1126/science.292.5520.1261 |pmid=11360966 |s2cid=129309907|author1=Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences the Arts |author2=Royal Society of Canada |author3=German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina |author4=Indian National Science Academy |author5=Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy) |author6=Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand |author7=Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences |author8=Royal Society (UK) }}</ref> Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000, p.&nbsp;5).<ref>{{cite journal
|date=April 2000
| last = Grubb | first = M.
|title=The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Appraisal. FEEM Working Paper No. 30 2000
|publisher=SSRN
|ssrn=229280
|doi=10.2139/ssrn.229280
|hdl=10419/155084
| s2cid = 54779393 |hdl-access=free
}}</ref>

The United States (under former President ]) and Australia (initially, under former Prime Minister ]) did not ratify the Kyoto treaty.<ref name="stern us and australia">
{{citation
|title = 22. Creating a global price for carbon
|url = http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_22_Creating_a_Global_Price_for_Carbon.pdf
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120818155729/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Chapter_22_Creating_a_Global_Price_for_Carbon.pdf
|archive-date = 18 August 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|Stern|2006|p=478}}
</ref> According to Stern (2006),<ref name="stern us and australia"/> their decision was based on the lack of quantitative emission commitments for emerging economies (see also the ] section). Australia, under former Prime Minister ], has since ratified the treaty,<ref>{{cite news
|url = http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200610/s1772952.htm
|title = Govt still not serious about climate change: Labor
|work = ABC News Online
|date = 26 October 2006
|access-date = 30 October 2006
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20071011163324/http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200610/s1772952.htm
|archive-date = 11 October 2007
|df = dmy-all
}}</ref><ref name="australia signing">{{cite news
|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7124236.stm
|title=Rudd takes Australia inside Kyoto
|work=BBC News
|date=3 December 2007
|access-date=5 December 2007
|archive-date=10 September 2008
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910120527/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7124236.stm
|url-status=live
}}</ref> which took effect in March 2008.<ref>{{cite news
|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7124236.stm
|title=Australia's Rudd sworn in as PM
|work=BBC News
|publisher=BBC
|date=3 December 2007
|access-date=3 December 2007
|archive-date=3 December 2007
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071203201241/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7124236.stm
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

=== Compliance ===
38 developed countries committed to limiting their greenhouse gas emissions. Because the United States did not ratify and Canada withdrew, the emission limits remained in force for 36 countries. All of them complied with the Protocol. However, nine countries (Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain and Switzerland) had to resort to the flexibility mechanisms because their national emissions were slightly greater than their targets.<ref name="Shislov" />

In total, the 36 countries that fully participated in the Protocol were committed to reducing their aggregate emissions by 4% from the 1990 base year. Their average annual emissions in 2008–2012 were 24.2% below the 1990 level. Hence, they surpassed their aggregate commitment by a large margin. If the United States and Canada are included, the emissions decreased by 11.8%. The large reductions were mainly thanks to the ], which reduced the emissions of the ] by tens of percents in the early 1990s. In addition, the ] significantly reduced emissions during the first Kyoto commitment period.<ref name="Shislov" />

The 36 countries that were committed to emission reductions only accounted for 24% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010.<ref name="Shislov" /> Even though these countries significantly reduced their emissions during the Kyoto commitment period, other countries increased their emissions so much that the global emissions increased by 32% from 1990 to 2010.<ref name="GapReport" />

=== Emission trends in developing countries ===
In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).<ref>{{cite web |author=PBL |date=16 October 2009 |title=Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target |url=http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/COP13Bali/moreinfo/Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100409000327/http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/COP13Bali/moreinfo/Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target.html |archive-date=9 April 2010 |access-date=3 April 2010 |publisher=Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) website}}</ref> For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990–2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.

===Views on the flexibility mechanisms===

{{Further|Flexible Mechanisms#Views on the flexibility mechanisms|carbon emission trading}}

Another area which has been commented on is the role of the Kyoto ] – ], ], and the ] (CDM).<ref name="toth flexibility mechanisms">
Toth ''et al.'' summarize the arguments for and against flexibility: {{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/441.htm
|title = Sec 10.4.4. Where Should the Response Take Place? The Relationship between Domestic Mitigation and the Use of International Mechanisms
|chapter = Ch 10: Decision-making Frameworks
|last1 = Toth
|first1 = F. L.
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120117032405/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/441.htm
|archive-date = 17 January 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref><ref>
{{citation
|chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/059.htm
|title = Sec 1.3.3 How Has Global Climate Policy Treated Equity?
|chapter = Ch 1: Setting the Stage: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
|last1 = Banuri
|first1 = T.
|display-authors = etal
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121030113019/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/059.htm
|archive-date = 30 October 2012
|df = dmy-all
}}, in {{harvnb|IPCC TAR WG3|2001}}
</ref> The flexibility mechanisms have attracted both positive and negative comments.<ref>
{{citation
| title=Part III: How good (or bad) are the Mechanisms?
}}, in {{harvnb|Carbon Trust|2009|pp=53–79}}
</ref><ref>
{{Citation
|date = 5 November 2007
|last = Schneider
|first = L.
|title = Is the CDM fulfilling its environmental and sustainable development objectives? An evaluation of the CDM and options for improvement. A report prepared for the WWF
|chapter = Ch 5: Overall conclusions
|pages = 72–73
|publisher = Institute for Applied Ecology
|location = Berlin, Germany
|chapter-url = http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/resources/?118000/An-evaluation-of-the-CDM-and-options-for-improvement
|archive-url = https://archive.today/20130415150840/http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/resources/?118000/An-evaluation-of-the-CDM-and-options-for-improvement
|url-status = dead
|archive-date = 15 April 2013
}}
</ref><ref>
{{harvnb|Spash|2010}}
</ref>

One of the arguments made in favour of the flexibility mechanisms is that they can reduce the costs incurred by Annex I Parties in meeting their Kyoto commitments.<ref name="toth flexibility mechanisms"/> Criticisms of flexibility have, for example, included the ineffectiveness of emissions trading in promoting investment in non-fossil energy sources,<ref>{{citation
| author=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
| title=World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet
| chapter=VI. Financing the development response to climate change
| year=2009
| page=162
| chapter-url=https://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wess2009files/wess09/wess2009.pdf
| publisher=United Nations
| location=New York, USA
| isbn=978-92-1-109159-5
| access-date=28 June 2017
| archive-date=17 June 2013
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130617053100/http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wess2009files/wess09/wess2009.pdf
| url-status=live
}}</ref> and adverse impacts of CDM projects on local communities in developing countries.<ref>
{{harvnb|Spash|2010|p=185}}
</ref>

China, India, Indonesia and Brazil were not required to reduce their CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The remaining signatory countries were not obliged to implement a common framework nor specific measures, but to reach an emission reduction target for which they can benefit of a ] for carbon credits multilaterally exchanged from each other.<ref name="OCLC 1027999644" /> The ] Scheme (ETS) allowed countries to host polluting industries and to buy from other countries the property of their environmental merits and virtuous patterns.<ref name="OCLC 1027999644">{{cite book | author =Geoffrey Wells| author2 = Janet Ratnanunga | chapter-url = https://books.google.com/books?id=V9K5XphOdukC&pg=PA89 | title = Sustainable Business: Theory and Practice of Business Under Sustainability Principles | page = 89 | publisher = Edward Elgar Publishing | date = January 1, 2013 | isbn = 9781781001868 | oclc = 1027999644 | chapter = 5 - Carbon accounting and carbon auditing for business}}</ref>

A 2021 review considers both the institutional design and the political strategies that have affected the adoption of the Kyoto protocol. It concludes that the Kyoto protocol's relatively small impact on global carbon dioxide emissions reflects a number of factors, including "deliberate political strategy, unequal power, and the absence of leadership" among and within nations.<ref name="Stoddard"/> The efforts of fossil fuel interests and conservative think tanks to spread ] and ] have influenced public opinion and political action both within the United States and beyond it. The direct lobbying of fossil fuel companies and their funding of political actors have slowed political action to address climate change at regional, national, and international levels.<ref name="Stoddard">{{cite journal |last1=Stoddard |first1=Isak |display-authors=etal |last2=Anderson |first2=Kevin |last3=Capstick |first3=Stuart |last4=Carton |first4=Wim |last5=Depledge |first5=Joanna |last6=Facer |first6=Keri |last7=Gough |first7=Clair |last8=Hache |first8=Frederic |last9=Hoolohan |first9=Claire |last10=Hultman |first10=Martin |last11=Hällström |first11=Niclas |last12=Kartha |first12=Sivan |last13=Klinsky |first13=Sonja |last14=Kuchler |first14=Magdalena |last15=Lövbrand |first15=Eva |last16=Nasiritousi |first16=Naghmeh |last17=Newell |first17=Peter |last18=Peters |first18=Glen P. |last19=Sokona |first19=Youba |last20=Stirling |first20=Andy |last21=Stilwell |first21=Matthew |last22=Spash |first22=Clive L. |last23=Williams |first23=Mariama |title=Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve? |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |date=18 October 2021 |volume=46 |issue=1 |pages=653–689 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104 |hdl=1983/93c742bc-4895-42ac-be81-535f36c5039d |s2cid=233815004 |url=https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/files/305689845/Full_text_PDF_final_published_version_.pdf |access-date=31 August 2022 |language=en |issn=1543-5938 }}{{Dead link|date=June 2024 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref>

==Amendment and successor==
{{Main|Post–Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions}}

In the non-binding "]" agreed on 16 February 2007, heads of governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisaged a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations and ], and initially hoped that it would be in place by 2009.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6364663.stm|title=Politicians sign new climate pact|publisher=BBC|date=16 February 2007|access-date=28 May 2007|archive-date=5 May 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070505000449/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6364663.stm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2014683,00.html|title=Global leaders reach climate change agreement|work=The Guardian|location=UK|date=16 February 2007|access-date=28 May 2007|archive-date=5 June 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070605050658/http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2014683,00.html|url-status=live}}</ref>

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was one of the annual series of UN meetings that followed the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. In 1997 the talks led to the Kyoto Protocol, and the conference in Copenhagen was considered to be the opportunity to agree a successor to Kyoto that would bring about meaningful carbon cuts.<ref>{{cite news
| url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/25/copenhagen-climate-change-summit
| title=Why the Copenhagen climate change cliffhanger could drag on a little longer
| last=Adam
| first=David
| newspaper=The Guardian
| date=25 March 2009
| access-date=14 April 2009
| archive-date=6 September 2013
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130906061004/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/25/copenhagen-climate-change-summit
| url-status=live
}}</ref><ref>{{cite news
|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
|quote=The poll comes as UN negotiations to agree a new global treaty to regulate carbon pollution gather pace in advance of a key meeting in Copenhagen in December. Officials will try to agree a successor to the Kyoto protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012.
|title=World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree
|newspaper=The Guardian
|last=Adam
|first=David
|date=14 April 2009
|access-date=14 April 2009
|archive-date=6 September 2013
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130906090708/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

The ] include voluntary pledges made by 76 developed and developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases.<ref name="king 2011 cancun agreement">
{{citation
|date= July 2011
|author= King, D.
|chapter= Copenhagen and Cancun
|title= International climate change negotiations: Key lessons and next steps
|publisher= Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
|location= Oxford, UK
|page= 12
|url = http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf
|display-authors = etal
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120113033748/http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Climate-Negotiations-report_Final.pdf
|archive-date = 13 January 2012
|url-status=dead
}}
</ref> In 2010, these 76 countries were collectively responsible for 85% of annual global emissions.<ref name="king 2011 cancun agreement"/><ref name="unep 2012 emissions gap">{{citation
| date=November 2012
| author=United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
| title=The Emissions Gap Report 2012
| publisher=UNEP
| location=Nairobi, Kenya
| pages=14–18
| url=http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf
| access-date=10 December 2012
| archive-date=13 May 2016
| archive-url=http://arquivo.pt/wayback/20160513232928/http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf
| url-status=dead
}} Executive summary in {{Webarchive|url=http://arquivo.pt/wayback/20160513232948/http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgap2012/ |date=13 May 2016 }}</ref>

By May 2012, the US, Japan, Russia, and Canada had indicated they would not sign up to a second Kyoto commitment period.<ref>{{cite news
|url= https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/may/16/bonn-climate-talks-eu-kyoto
|title= Bonn climate talks: EU plays down talk of Kyoto protocol rift
|first= James
|last= Murray
|work= The Guardian
|date= 16 May 2012
|quote= A number of large emitters, including the US, Japan, Russia, and Canada, have signalled they will not sign up to Kyoto or to a second commitment period of Kyoto, while large emerging economies will only sign up to an agreement that does not impose binding emission reduction targets on them.
|access-date= 21 November 2012
|archive-date= 19 April 2015
|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20150419033029/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/may/16/bonn-climate-talks-eu-kyoto
|url-status= live
}}</ref> In November 2012, Australia confirmed it would participate in a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol and New Zealand confirmed that it would not.<ref>{{cite news |last=Harvey |first=Fiona |author-link=Fiona Harvey |date=9 November 2012 |title=Kyoto protocol: Australia signs up to second phase |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/nov/09/australia-kyoto-protocol-second-phase |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140903165834/http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/nov/09/australia-kyoto-protocol-second-phase |archive-date=3 September 2014 |access-date=21 November 2012 |work=The Guardian}}</ref>

New Zealand's climate minister Tim Groser said the 15-year-old Kyoto Protocol was outdated, and that New Zealand was "ahead of the curve" in looking for a replacement that would include developing nations.<ref>{{cite news | url= http://www.3news.co.nz/Groser-NZ-ahead-of-the-curve-in-quitting-Kyoto-Protocol/tabid/1160/articleID/278937/Default.aspx | work= 3 News NZ | title= Groser defends quitting Kyoto Protocol | date= 3 December 2012 | access-date= 7 December 2018 | archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20140701131342/http://www.3news.co.nz/Groser-NZ-ahead-of-the-curve-in-quitting-Kyoto-Protocol/tabid/1160/articleID/278937/Default.aspx | archive-date= 1 July 2014 | url-status= dead | df= dmy-all }}</ref> Non-profit environmental organisations such as the ] criticised New Zealand's decision to pull out.<ref>{{cite news| url= http://www.3news.co.nz/NZs-environmental-reputation-nosedive/tabid/1160/articleID/279779/Default.aspx| work= 3 News NZ| title= NZ's climate reputation 'nosedive'| date= 10 December 2012| access-date= 7 December 2018| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20140701140314/http://www.3news.co.nz/NZs-environmental-reputation-nosedive/tabid/1160/articleID/279779/Default.aspx| archive-date= 1 July 2014| url-status= dead| df= dmy-all}}</ref>

On 8 December 2012, at the end of the ], an agreement was reached to extend the Protocol to 2020 and to set a date of 2015 for the development of a successor document, to be implemented from 2020 (see lede for more information).<ref>{{cite news
|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20653018
|title=UN climate talks extend Kyoto Protocol, promise compensation
|work=BBC News
|date=8 December 2012
|access-date=22 June 2018
|archive-date=16 July 2018
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180716140524/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20653018
|url-status=live
}}</ref> The outcome of the Doha talks has received a mixed response, with small island states critical of the overall package. The Kyoto second commitment period applies to about 11% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. Other results of the conference include a timetable for a global agreement to be adopted by 2015 which includes all countries.<ref name="unfccc 2012 doha press release">
{{citation
|author=UN Climate Change Secretariat
|title=Doha climate conference opens gateway to greater ambition and action on climate change (press release)
|publisher=UN Climate Change Secretariat
|location=Bonn, Germany
|date=8 December 2012
|url=http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press_releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/121208_final_pr_cop18_cf.pdf
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130330051943/http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press_releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/121208_final_pr_cop18_cf.pdf
|archive-date=30 March 2013
}}, p.2.
</ref> At the Doha meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC on 8 December 2012, the European Union chief climate negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, pledged to extend the treaty, binding on the 27 European Member States, up to the year 2020 pending an internal ratification procedure.

], ], called on world leaders to come to an agreement on halting global warming during the 69th Session of the UN General Assembly<ref>{{Cite web | url=http://sd.iisd.org/events/69th-session-of-the-un-general-assembly-unga-69 | title=Event: 69th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 69) &#124; SDG Knowledge Hub | website=Sd.iisd.org | access-date=6 October 2014 | archive-date=10 March 2016 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160310204438/http://sd.iisd.org/events/69th-session-of-the-un-general-assembly-unga-69 | url-status=dead }}</ref> on 23 September 2014 in New York. The next climate summit was held ], out of which emerged the ], the successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

==See also==
{{portal|border=no|Global warming|Ecology|Energy|Environment|World}}
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]
* ]

==References==
{{Reflist}}


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==External links==
{{Wikisource}}
{{Commons category|Kyoto Protocol}}
* Protocol text ( {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090825212122/http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html |date=25 August 2009 }} and {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111005085911/http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf |date=5 October 2011 }}), {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130617035353/http://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/CTC/Ch_XXVII-7-b.pdf |date=17 June 2013 }} and {{dead link|date=April 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}
* {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210417192203/https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-a&chapter=27&clang=_en |date=17 April 2021 }}, its {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210417184545/https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-b&chapter=27&clang=_en |date=17 April 2021 }} (Targets for Belarus) and its {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230601190245/https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-c&chapter=27&clang=_en |date=1 June 2023 }} (extension period 2012–2020)
* – fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
* {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090814111134/http://mindprod.com/environment/kyoto.html |date=14 August 2009 }}


] {{Climate change}}
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Latest revision as of 23:03, 26 December 2024

1997 international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions This article is about the international treaty. For the rock band, see Kyoto Protocol (band).
Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC
  Annex B parties with binding targets in the second period   Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but not the second   Non-Annex B parties without binding targets   Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but which withdrew from the Protocol   Signatories to the Protocol that have not ratified   Other UN member states and observers that are not party to the Protocol
Signed11 December 1997
LocationKyoto, Japan
Effective16 February 2005
ConditionRatification by at least 55 states to the Convention
Expiration31 December 2012 (first commitment period)
31 December 2020 (second commitment period)
Signatories84 (1998–1999 signing period)
Parties192 (the European Union, Cook Islands, Niue, and all UN member states except Andorra, Canada, South Sudan, and the United States as of 2022)
DepositarySecretary-General of the United Nations
LanguagesArabic, Mandarin, English, French, Russian, and Spanish
Full text
Kyoto Protocol at Wikisource
Kyoto Protocol Extension (2012–2020)
Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol
Acceptance of the Doha Amendment   States that ratified   Kyoto protocol parties that did not ratify   Non-parties to the Kyoto Protocol
TypeAmendment to international agreement
Drafted8 December 2012
LocationDoha, Qatar
Effective31 December 2020
ConditionRatification by 144 state parties required
Expiration31 December 2020
Ratifiers147
Full text
Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol at Wikisource

Kyoto International Conference Center

The Kyoto Protocol (Japanese: 京都議定書, Hepburn: Kyōto Giteisho) was an international treaty which extended the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that commits state parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, based on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and that human-made CO2 emissions are driving it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. There were 192 parties (Canada withdrew from the protocol, effective December 2012) to the Protocol in 2020.

The Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to reduce the onset of global warming by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (Article 2). The Kyoto Protocol applied to the seven greenhouse gases listed in Annex A: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). Nitrogen trifluoride was added for the second compliance period during the Doha Round.

The Protocol was based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities: it acknowledged that individual countries have different capabilities in combating climate change, owing to economic development, and therefore placed the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. All 36 countries that fully participated in the first commitment period complied with the Protocol. However, nine countries had to resort to the flexibility mechanisms by funding emission reductions in other countries because their national emissions were slightly greater than their targets. The 2007–2008 financial crisis reduced emissions. The greatest emission reductions were seen in the former Eastern Bloc countries because the dissolution of the Soviet Union reduced their emissions in the early 1990s. Even though the 36 developed countries reduced their emissions, the global emissions increased by 32% from 1990 to 2010.

A second commitment period was agreed to in 2012 to extend the agreement to 2020, known as the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, in which 37 countries had binding targets: Australia, the European Union (and its then 28 member states, now 27), Belarus, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, and Ukraine. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine stated that they may withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol or not put into legal force the Amendment with second round targets. Japan, New Zealand, and Russia had participated in Kyoto's first-round but did not take on new targets in the second commitment period. Other developed countries without second-round targets were Canada (which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2012) and the United States (which did not ratify). If they were to remain as a part of the protocol, Canada would be hit with a $14 billion fine, which would be devastating to their economy, hence the reluctant decision to exit. As of October 2020, 147 states had accepted the Doha Amendment. It entered into force on 31 December 2020, following its acceptance by the mandated minimum of at least 144 states, although the second commitment period ended on the same day. Of the 37 parties with binding commitments, 34 had ratified.

Negotiations were held in the framework of the yearly UNFCCC Climate Change Conferences on measures to be taken after the second commitment period ended in 2020. This resulted in the 2015 adoption of the Paris Agreement, which is a separate instrument under the UNFCCC rather than an amendment of the Kyoto Protocol.

Chronology

See also: History of climate change policy and politics and United Nations Climate Change Conference

1992 – The UN Conference on the Environment and Development is held in Rio de Janeiro. It results in the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) among other agreements.

1995 – Parties to the UNFCCC meet in Berlin (the 1st Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC) to outline specific targets on emissions.

1997 – In December the parties conclude the Kyoto Protocol in Kyoto, Japan, in which they agree to the broad outlines of emissions targets.

2004 – Russia and Canada ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC bringing the treaty into effect on 16 February 2005.

2011 – Canada became the first signatory to announce its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.

2012 – On 31 December 2012, the first commitment period under the Protocol expired.

The official meeting of all states party to the Kyoto Protocol is the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The first conference was held in 1995 in Berlin (COP 1). The first Meeting of Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) was held in 2005 in conjunction with COP 11.

Objectives

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrationsKyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases.Refer to captionIn order to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.

The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol was to control emissions of the main anthropogenic (human-emitted) greenhouse gases (GHGs) in ways that reflect underlying national differences in GHG emissions, wealth, and capacity to make the reductions. The treaty follows the main principles agreed in the original 1992 UN Framework Convention. According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I Parties who have ratified the treaty must have fulfilled their obligations of greenhouse gas emissions limitations established for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008–2012). These emissions limitation commitments are listed in Annex B of the Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the first detailed step taken within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Protocol establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods. It set a timetable starting in 2006 for negotiations to establish emission reduction commitments for a second commitment period. The first period emission reduction commitments expired on 31 December 2012.

The first-round Kyoto emissions limitation commitments were not sufficient to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of GHGs. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations will require further emissions reductions after the end of the first-round Kyoto commitment period in 2012.

The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would stop dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Even if Annex I Parties succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations.

For each of the different anthropogenic GHGs, different levels of emissions reductions would be required to meet the objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would ultimately require the effective elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

To achieve stabilization, global GHG emissions must peak, then decline. The lower the desired stabilization level, the sooner this peak and decline must occur. For a given stabilization level, larger emissions reductions in the near term allow for less stringent emissions reductions later. On the other hand, less stringent near term emissions reductions would, for a given stabilization level, require more stringent emissions reductions later on.

The first period Kyoto emissions limitations can be viewed as a first-step towards achieving atmospheric stabilization of GHGs. In this sense, the first period Kyoto commitments may affect what future atmospheric stabilization level can be achieved.

Principal concepts

Some of the principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

  • Binding commitments for the Annex I Parties. The main feature of the Protocol is that it established legally binding commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for Annex I Parties. The commitments were based on the Berlin Mandate, which was a part of UNFCCC negotiations leading up to the Protocol.
  • Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I Parties are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home.
  • Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
  • Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
  • Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol.

Flexibility mechanisms

The Protocol defines three "Flexibility Mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments. The flexibility mechanisms are International Emissions Trading (IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI). IET allows Annex I Parties to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units, AAUs, or "allowances" for short).

The economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the marginal cost of reducing (or abating) emissions differs among countries. "Marginal cost" is the cost of abating the last tonne of CO2-eq for an Annex I/non-Annex I Party. At the time of the original Kyoto targets, studies suggested that the flexibility mechanisms could reduce the overall (aggregate) cost of meeting the targets. Studies also showed that national losses in Annex I gross domestic product (GDP) could be reduced by the use of the flexibility mechanisms.

The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms", in that they generate emission reductions from projects. The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions. The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I Parties, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I Parties.

The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments. The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured against a hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called Certified emission reductions (CERs); reductions produced by JI are called emission reduction units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits" because they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.

Only emission reduction projects that do not involve using nuclear energy are eligible for accreditation under the CDM, in order to prevent nuclear technology exports from becoming the default route for obtaining credits under the CDM.

Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its greenhouse gas inventory. Virtually all of the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage their Kyoto obligations, specifically the "CDM process". This determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board.

International emissions trading

This section is an excerpt from Carbon emission trading.
Allowance prices for carbon emission trade in all major emission trading schemes in Euro per ton of CO2 emitted (from 2008 until August 2024)
Carbon emission trading (also called carbon market, emission trading scheme (ETS) or cap and trade) is a type of emissions trading scheme designed for carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). A form of carbon pricing, its purpose is to limit climate change by creating a market with limited allowances for emissions. Carbon emissions trading is a common method that countries use to attempt to meet their pledges under the Paris Agreement, with schemes operational in China, the European Union, and other countries.

Emissions trading sets a quantitative total limit on the emissions produced by all participating emitters, which correspondingly determines the prices of emissions. Under emission trading, a polluter having more emissions than their quota has to purchase the right to emit more from emitters with fewer emissions. This can reduce the competitiveness of fossil fuels, which are the main driver of climate change. Instead, carbon emissions trading may accelerate investments into renewable energy, such as wind power and solar power.

However, such schemes are usually not harmonized with defined carbon budgets that are required to maintain global warming below the critical thresholds of 1.5 °C or "well below" 2 °C, with oversupply leading to low prices of allowances with almost no effect on fossil fuel combustion. Emission trade allowances currently cover a wide price range from €7 per tonne of CO2 in China's national carbon trading scheme to €63 per tonne of CO2 in the EU-ETS (as of September 2021).

Other greenhouse gases can also be traded but are quoted as standard multiples of carbon dioxide with respect to their global warming potential.
Intergovernmental emissions trading

The design of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) implicitly allows for trade of national Kyoto obligations to occur between participating countries. The Carbon Trust found that other than the trading that occurs as part of the EU ETS, no intergovernmental emissions trading had taken place.

One of the environmental problems with IET is the large surplus of allowances that are available. Russia, Ukraine, and the new EU-12 member states (the Kyoto Parties Annex I Economies-in-Transition, abbreviated "EIT": Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine) have a surplus of allowances, while many OECD countries have a deficit. Some of the EITs with a surplus regard it as potential compensation for the trauma of their economic restructuring. When the Kyoto treaty was negotiated, it was recognized that emissions targets for the EITs might lead to them having an excess number of allowances. This excess of allowances were viewed by the EITs as "headroom" to grow their economies. The surplus has, however, also been referred to by some as "hot air", a term which Russia (a country with an estimated surplus of 3.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent allowances) views as "quite offensive".

OECD countries with a deficit could meet their Kyoto commitments by buying allowances from transition countries with a surplus. Unless other commitments were made to reduce the total surplus in allowances, such trade would not actually result in emissions being reduced (see also the section below on the Green Investment Scheme).

"Green Investment Schemes"

The "Green Investment Scheme" (GIS) is a plan for achieving environmental benefits from trading surplus allowances (AAUs) under the Kyoto Protocol. The Green Investment Scheme (GIS), a mechanism in the framework of International Emissions Trading (IET), is designed to achieve greater flexibility in reaching the targets of the Kyoto Protocol while preserving environmental integrity of IET. However, using the GIS is not required under the Kyoto Protocol, and there is no official definition of the term.

Under the GIS a party to the protocol expecting that the development of its economy will not exhaust its Kyoto quota, can sell the excess of its Kyoto quota units (AAUs) to another party. The proceeds from the AAU sales should be "greened", i.e. channelled to the development and implementation of the projects either acquiring the greenhouse gases emission reductions (hard greening) or building up the necessary framework for this process (soft greening).

Trade in AAUs

Latvia was one of the front-runners of GISs. World Bank (2011) reported that Latvia has stopped offering AAU sales because of low AAU prices. In 2010, Estonia was the preferred source for AAU buyers, followed by the Czech Republic and Poland.

Japan's national policy to meet their Kyoto target includes the purchase of AAUs sold under GISs. In 2010, Japan and Japanese firms were the main buyers of AAUs. In terms of the international carbon market, trade in AAUs are a small proportion of overall market value. In 2010, 97% of trade in the international carbon market was driven by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

Clean Development Mechanism

Between 2001, which was the first year Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects could be registered, and 2012, the end of the first Kyoto commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in emission reductions. Most of these reductions are through renewable energy commercialisation, energy efficiency, and fuel switching (World Bank, 2010, p. 262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are estimated in China (52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make up 15% of the potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).

Joint Implementation

The formal crediting period for Joint Implementation (JI) was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20). In November 2008, only 22 JI projects had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and N2O emissions.

Details of the agreement

The agreement is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which did not set any legally binding limitations on emissions or enforcement mechanisms. Only Parties to the UNFCCC can become Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.

National emission targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) in meeting their targets. LULUCF activities are also called "sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate, and indeed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Land use, land-use change, and forestry estimates that since 1750 a third of global warming has been caused by land use change. Particular criteria apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.

Forest management, cropland management, grazing land management, and revegetation are all eligible LULUCF activities under the Protocol. Annex I Parties use of forest management in meeting their targets is capped.

First commitment period: 2008–2012

Under the Kyoto Protocol, 37 industrialized countries and the European Community (the European Union-15, made up of 15 states at the time of the Kyoto negotiations) commit themselves to binding targets for GHG emissions. The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and two groups of gases, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). The six GHG are translated into CO2 equivalents in determining reductions in emissions. These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

Under the Protocol, only the Annex I Parties have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) – Article 4.1). Parties to the Kyoto Protocol not listed in Annex I of the convention (the non-Annex I Parties) are mostly low-income developing countries, and may participate in the Kyoto Protocol through the Clean Development Mechanism (explained below).

The emissions limitations of Annex I Parties varies between different Parties. Some Parties have emissions limitations reduce below the base year level, some have limitations at the base year level (no permitted increase above the base year level), while others have limitations above the base year level.

Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping. Although Belarus and Turkey are listed in the convention's Annex I, they do not have emissions targets as they were not Annex I Parties when the Protocol was adopted. Kazakhstan does not have a target, but has declared that it wishes to become an Annex I Party to the convention.

Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol, their 2008–2012 commitments as % of base year, and 1990 emission levels (% of all Annex I countries)

Australia – 108% (2.1% of 1990 emissions)
Austria – 87%
Belarus – 95% (subject to acceptance by other parties)
Belgium – 92.5%
Bulgaria – 92% (0.6%)
Canada – 94% (3.33%) (withdrew)
Croatia – 95% ()
Czech Republic – 92% (1.24%)
Denmark – 79%
Estonia – 92% (0.28%)

Finland – 100%
France – 100%
Germany – 79%
Greece – 125%
Hungary – 94% (0.52%)
Iceland – 110% (0.02%)
Ireland – 113%
Italy – 93.5%
Japan – 94% (8.55%)
Latvia – 92% (0.17%)

Liechtenstein – 92% (0.0015%)
Lithuania – 92%
Luxembourg – 72%
Netherlands – 94%
New Zealand – 100% (0.19%)
Norway – 101% (0.26%)
Poland – 94% (3.02%)
Portugal – 92%
Romania – 92% (1.24%)

Russian Federation – 100% (17.4%)
Slovakia – 92% (0.42%)
Slovenia – 92%
Spain – 115%
Sweden – 104%
Switzerland – 92% (0.32%)
Ukraine – 100%
United Kingdom – 87.5%
United States of America – 93% (36.1%) (non-party)

For most state parties, 1990 is the base year for the national GHG inventory and the calculation of the assigned amount. However, five state parties have an alternative base year:

  • Bulgaria: 1988;
  • Hungary: the average of the years 1985–1987;
  • Poland: 1988;
  • Romania: 1989;
  • Slovenia: 1986.

Annex I Parties can use a range of sophisticated "flexibility" mechanisms (see below) to meet their targets. Annex I Parties can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying emission allowances from other operators which have excess emissions credits.

Negotiations

See also: Views on the Kyoto Protocol § Commentaries on negotiations

Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to " the lead" in reducing emissions. The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto moved to binding commitments.

At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 was able to push for a mandate (the "Berlin mandate") where it was recognized that:

  • developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere (see Greenhouse gas emissions).
  • developing country emissions per-capita (i.e., average emissions per head of population) were still relatively low.
  • and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.

During negotiations, the G-77 represented 133 developing countries. China was not a member of the group but an associate. It has since become a member.

The Berlin mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period. However, the large potential for growth in developing country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense. In the final agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions. The general assumption was that developing countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet their first round commitments.

Emissions cuts

Refer to caption
Kyoto Parties with first period (2008–12) greenhouse gas emissions limitations targets, and the percentage change in their carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009. For more detailed country/region information, see Kyoto Protocol and government action.
Refer to caption
Overview map of states committed to greenhouse gas (GHG) limitations in the first Kyoto Protocol period (2008–12):
  Annex I Parties who have agreed to reduce their GHG emissions below their individual base year levels (see definition in this article)   Annex I Parties who have agreed to cap their GHG emissions at their base year levels   Non-Annex I Parties who are not obligated by caps or Annex I Parties with an emissions cap that allows their emissions to expand above their base year levels or countries that have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol
For specific emission reduction commitments of Annex I Parties, see the section of the article on 2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms".

The European Union as a whole has, in accordance with this treaty, committed itself to a reduction of 8%. However, many member states (such as Greece, Spain, Ireland and Sweden) have not committed themselves to any reduction while France has committed itself not to expand its emissions (0% reduction).

There were multiple emissions cuts proposed by UNFCCC parties during negotiations. The G77 and China were in favour of strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world. The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations of the first. In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than 2005. Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the subsequent period.

The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – CO2, CH4, and N2O – with other gases such as HFCs regulated separately. The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.

The most vulnerable nations – the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent. Countries that had supported differentiation of targets had different ideas as to how it should be calculated, and many different indicators were proposed. Two examples include differentiation of targets based on gross domestic product (GDP), and differentiation based on energy intensity (energy use per unit of economic output).

The final targets negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises. The targets closely match those decided by Argentinian Raul Estrada, the diplomat who chaired the negotiations. The numbers given to each Party by Chairman Estrada were based on targets already pledged by Parties, information received on latest negotiating positions, and the goal of achieving the strongest possible environmental outcome. The final targets are weaker than those proposed by some Parties, e.g., the Alliance of Small Island States and the G-77 and China, but stronger than the targets proposed by others, e.g., Canada and the United States.

Relation to temperature targets

At the 16th Conference of the Parties held in 2010, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed that future global warming should be limited below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial temperature level. One of the stabilization levels discussed in relation to this temperature target is to hold atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at 450 parts per million (ppm) CO2- eq. Stabilization at 450 ppm could be associated with a 26 to 78% risk of exceeding the 2 °C target.

Scenarios assessed by Gupta et al. (2007) suggest that Annex I emissions would need to be 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The only Annex I Parties to have made voluntary pledges in line with this are Japan (25% below 1990 levels by 2020) and Norway (30–40% below 1990 levels by 2020).

Gupta et al. (2007) also looked at what 450 ppm scenarios projected for non-Annex I Parties. Projections indicated that by 2020, non-Annex I emissions in several regions (Latin America, the Middle East, East Asia, and centrally planned Asia) would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual". "Business-as-usual" are projected non-Annex I emissions in the absence of any new policies to control emissions. Projections indicated that by 2050, emissions in all non-Annex I regions would need to be substantially reduced below "business-as-usual".

Financial commitments

The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in UNFCCC. One such project is The Adaptation Fund, which has been established by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.

Implementation provisions

The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties COP6 of the UNFCCC, which attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but it was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union (who favoured a tougher implementation) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia (who wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).

In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6-bis) was held in Bonn, where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to secure the agreement of Japan and Russia by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.

COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the protocol.

The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from 28 November to 9 December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations Climate Change Conference.

During COP13 in Bali, 36 developed Contact Group countries (plus the EU as a party in the European Union) agreed to a 10% emissions increase for Iceland; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations, much larger increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below § Increase in greenhouse gas emission since 1990). Reduction limitations expired in 2013.

Mechanism of compliance

The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties for non-compliance." According to Grubb (2003), the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the treaty are weak compared to domestic law. Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the Marrakesh Accords.

Monitoring emissions

Monitoring emissions in international agreements is tough as in international law, there is no police power, creating the incentive for states to find 'ways around' monitoring. The Kyoto Protocol regulated six sinks and sources of Gases. Carbon dioxide, Methane, Nirous oxide, Hydroflurocarbons, Sulfur hexafluouride and Perfluorocarbons. Monitoring these gases can become quite a challenge. Methane can be monitored and measured from irrigated rice fields and can be measured by the seedling growing up to harvest. Future implications state that this can be affected by more cost effective ways to control emissions as changes in types of fertilizer can reduce emissions by 50%. In addition to this, many countries are unable to monitor certain ways of carbon absorption through trees and soils to an accurate level.

Enforcing emission cuts

If the enforcement branch determines that an Annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference during the second commitment period plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program.

Ratification process

Countries that ratified the Protocol

The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 of UNFCCC on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for signature during one year by parties to UNFCCC, when it was signed Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, the Maldives, Samoa, St. Lucia and Switzerland. At the end of the signature period, 82 countries and the European Community had signed. Ratification (which is required to become a party to the Protocol) started on 17 September with ratification by Fiji. Countries that did not sign acceded to the convention, which has the same legal effect.

Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."

The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002. Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on 23 May 2002 when Iceland ratified the Protocol. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004 satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of 90 days.

As of May 2013, 191 countries and one regional economic organization (the EC) have ratified the agreement, representing over 61.6% of the 1990 emissions from Annex I countries. One of the 191 ratifying states—Canada—has renounced the protocol.

Convention Parties

Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Angola
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Myanmar
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China
Colombia
Comoros
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Republic of the Congo
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Ivory Coast
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica

Dominican Republic
Ecuador
East Timor
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Eswatini
Ethiopia
European Union
Fiji
Finland
France
Gabon
Gambia
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Greece
Grenada
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Kiribati
North Korea
South Korea
Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya

Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Federated States of Micronesia
Moldova
Monaco
Mongolia
Montenegro
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Nauru
Nepal
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Niue
North Macedonia
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Rwanda
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Samoa
San Marino

São Tomé and Príncipe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia (non-party to Kyoto)
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Sweden
Switzerland
Syria
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Tuvalu
Uganda
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States (non-party to Kyoto)
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe

  • Observers:

Andorra (non-party to Kyoto)
Holy See (non-party to Kyoto)

Non-ratification by the US

The US signed the Protocol on 12 November 1998, during the Clinton presidency. To become binding in the US, however, the treaty had to be ratified by the Senate, which had already passed the 1997 non-binding Byrd-Hagel Resolution, expressing disapproval of any international agreement that did not require developing countries to make emission reductions and "would seriously harm the economy of the United States". The resolution passed 95–0. Therefore, even though the Clinton administration signed the treaty, it was never submitted to the Senate for ratification.

At the outset of the Bush administration, Senators Chuck Hagel, Jesse Helms, Larry Craig, and Pat Roberts wrote a letter to President George W. Bush seeking to identify his position on the Kyoto Protocol and climate change policy. In a letter dated March 13, 2001, President Bush responded that his "Administration takes the issue of global climate change very seriously", but that "I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns." The administration also questioned the scientific certainty around climate change and cited potential harms of emissions reduction to the US economy.

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research reported in 2001:

This policy reversal received a massive wave of criticism that was quickly picked up by the international media. Environmental groups blasted the White House, while Europeans and Japanese alike expressed deep concern and regret. ... Almost all world leaders (e.g. China, Japan, South Africa, Pacific Islands, etc.) expressed their disappointment at Bush's decision.

In response to this criticism, Bush stated: "I was responding to reality, and reality is the nation has got a real problem when it comes to energy". The Tyndall Centre called this "an overstatement used to cover up the big benefactors of this policy reversal, i.e., the US oil and coal industry, which has a powerful lobby with the administration and conservative Republican congressmen."

As of 2023, the US is the only signatory that has not ratified the Protocol. The US accounted for 36.1% of emissions in 1990. As such, for the treaty to go into legal effect without US ratification, it would require a coalition including the EU, Russia, Japan, and small parties. A deal, without the US Administration, was reached in the Bonn climate talks (COP-6.5), held in 2001.

Withdrawal of Canada

Main article: Kyoto Protocol and government action § Withdrawal of Canada See also: Canada and the Kyoto Protocol

In 2011, Canada, Japan and Russia stated that they would not take on further Kyoto targets. The Canadian government announced its withdrawal—possible at any time three years after ratification—from the Kyoto Protocol on 12 December 2011, effective 15 December 2012. Canada was committed to cutting its greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, but in 2009 emissions were 17% higher than in 1990. The Harper government prioritized oil sands development in Alberta, and deprioritized the reduction of greenhouse emissions. Environment minister Peter Kent cited Canada's liability to "enormous financial penalties" under the treaty unless it withdrew. He also suggested that the recently signed Durban agreement may provide an alternative way forward. The Harper government claimed it would find a "Made in Canada" solution. Canada's decision received a generally negative response from representatives of other ratifying countries.

Other states and territories where the treaty was not applicable

Andorra, Palestine, South Sudan, the United States and, following their withdrawal on 15 December 2012, Canada are the only UNFCCC Parties that are not party to the Protocol. Furthermore, the Protocol is not applied to UNFCCC observer the Holy See. Although the Kingdom of the Netherlands approved the protocol for the whole Kingdom, it did not deposit an instrument of ratification for Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten or the Caribbean Netherlands.

Country types and their emissions

See also: List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita, List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions, and GHG Protocol Corporate Standard

Annex I countries

Total aggregate GHG emissions excluding emissions/removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF, i.e., carbon storage in forests and soils) for all Annex I Parties (see list below) including the United States taken together decreased from 19.0 to 17.8 thousand teragrams (Tg, which is equal to 10 kg) CO2 equivalent, a decline of 6.0% during the 1990–2008 period. Several factors have contributed to this decline. The first is due to the economic restructuring in the Annex I Economies in Transition (the EITs – see Intergovernmental Emissions Trading for the list of EITs). Over the period 1990–1999, emissions fell by 40% in the EITs following the collapse of central planning in the former Soviet Union and east European countries. This led to a massive contraction of their heavy industry-based economies, with associated reductions in their fossil fuel consumption and emissions.

Emissions growth in Annex I Parties have also been limited due to policies and measures (PaMs). In particular, PaMs were strengthened after 2000, helping to enhance energy efficiency and develop renewable energy sources. Energy use also decreased during the economic crisis in 2007–2008.

Annex I parties with targets

Percentage changes in emissions from the base year (1990 for most countries) for Annex I Parties with Kyoto targets
Country Kyoto
target
2008–2012		 Kyoto
target
2013–2020		 GHG
emissions
2008–2012
including
LULUCF		 GHG
emissions
2008–2012
excluding
LULUCF
Australia +8 −0.5 +3.2 +30.3
Austria −13 −20 +3.2 +4.9
Belgium −8 −20 −13.9 −14.0
Bulgaria −8 −20 −53.4 −52.8
Canada (withdrew) −6 N/A +18.5 +18.5
Croatia −5 −20 −10.8 −7.5
Czech Republic −8 −20 −30.6 −30.0
Denmark −21 −20 −17.3 −14.8
Estonia −8 −20 −54.2 −55.3
Finland 0 −20 −5.5 −4.7
France 0 −20 −10.5 −10.0
Germany −21 −20 −24.3 −23.6
Greece +25 −20 +11.5 +11.9
Hungary −6 −20 −43.7 −41.8
Iceland +10 −20 +10.2 +19.4
Ireland +13 −20 +11.0 +5.1
Italy −6 −20 −7.0 −4.0
Japan −6 N/A −2.5 +1.4
Latvia −8 −20 −61.2 −56.4
Liechtenstein −8 −16 +4.1 +2.4
Lithuania −8 −20 −57.9 −55.6
Luxembourg −28 −20 −9.3 −8.7
Monaco −8 −22 −12.5 −12.5
Netherlands −6 −20 −6.2 −6.4
New Zealand 0 N/A −2.7 +20.4
Norway +1 −16 +4.6 +7.5
Poland −6 −20 −29.7 −28.8
Portugal +27 −20 +5.5 +22.4
Romania −8 −20 −57.0 −55.7
Russia 0 N/A −36.3 −32.7
Slovakia −8 −20 −37.2 −36.8
Slovenia −8 −20 −9.7 −3.2
Spain +15 −20 +20.0 +23.7
Sweden +4 −20 −18.2 −15.3
Switzerland −8 −15.8 −3.9 −0.8
Ukraine 0 −24 −57.1 −56.6
United Kingdom −13 −20 −23.0 −22.6
United States (did not ratify) −7 N/A +9.5 +9.5
Refer to caption and image description
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion of Annex I Kyoto Protocol (KP) Parties, 1990–2009. Total Annex I KP emissions are shown, along with emissions of Annex II KP and Annex I EITs.

Collectively the group of industrialized countries committed to a Kyoto target, i.e., the Annex I countries excluding the US, had a target of reducing their GHG emissions by 4.2% on average for the period 2008–2012 relative to the base year, which in most cases is 1990.

As noted in the preceding section, between 1990 and 1999, there was a large reduction in the emissions of the EITs. The reduction in the EITs is largely responsible for the total (aggregate) reduction (excluding LULUCF) in emissions of the Annex I countries, excluding the US. Emissions of the Annex II countries (Annex I minus the EIT countries) have experienced a limited increase in emissions from 1990 to 2006, followed by stabilization and a more marked decrease from 2007 onwards. The emissions reductions in the early nineties by the 12 EIT countries who have since joined the EU, assist the present EU-27 in meeting its collective Kyoto target.

In December 2011, Canada's environment minister, Peter Kent, formally announced that Canada would withdraw from the Kyoto accord a day after the end of the 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference (see the section on the withdrawal of Canada).

Annex I parties without Kyoto targets

Belarus, Malta, and Turkey are Annex I Parties but did not have first-round Kyoto targets. The US had a Kyoto target of a 7% reduction relative to the 1990 level, but has not ratified the treaty. If the US had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the average percentage reduction in total GHG emissions for the Annex I group would have been a 5.2% reduction relative to the base year.

Non-Annex I

Refer to captionAnnual per capita carbon dioxide emissions (i.e., average emissions per person) from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I PartiesRefer to captionAnnual carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1990 and 2009 for the Kyoto Annex I and non-Annex I Parties

UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties. Most non-Annex I Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income. Most Parties included information on policies relating to sustainable development. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care. Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their environmental legislation to include global concerns such as climate change.

A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions by Annex I Parties could adversely affect their economies. The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and export of fossil fuels.

GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year 1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO2-eq. CO2 was the largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by methane (26%) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (11%).

The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO2-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122 non-Annex I Parties.

  • The Africa region's aggregate emissions were 1.6 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4 tonnes.
  • The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.6 tonnes.
  • The Latin America and Caribbean region's aggregate emissions were 2 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 4.6 tonnes.
  • The "other" region includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Moldova, and North Macedonia. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 5.1 tonnes.

Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9 billion tonnes, without LUCF, total aggregate emissions were 11.7 billion tonnes.

Problem areas

Views and criticism of the Protocol

Main articles: Views on the Kyoto Protocol and Criticism of the Kyoto Protocol
This section needs to be updated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (June 2021)

Gupta et al. (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem. In these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.

Gupta et al. (2007) described the Kyoto first-round commitments as "modest", stating that they acted as a constraint on the treaty's effectiveness. It was suggested that subsequent Kyoto commitments could be made more effective with measures aimed at achieving deeper cuts in emissions, as well as having policies applied to a larger share of global emissions. In 2008, countries with a Kyoto cap made up less than one-third of annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion.

World Bank (2010) commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global emissions growth. The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but in 2006, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions had grown by 24%. World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.

Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town", and possibly because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions (Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 9). In 2001, seventeen national science academies stated that ratification of the Protocol represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases." Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000, p. 5).

The United States (under former President George W. Bush) and Australia (initially, under former Prime Minister John Howard) did not ratify the Kyoto treaty. According to Stern (2006), their decision was based on the lack of quantitative emission commitments for emerging economies (see also the 2000 onwards section). Australia, under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has since ratified the treaty, which took effect in March 2008.

Compliance

38 developed countries committed to limiting their greenhouse gas emissions. Because the United States did not ratify and Canada withdrew, the emission limits remained in force for 36 countries. All of them complied with the Protocol. However, nine countries (Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain and Switzerland) had to resort to the flexibility mechanisms because their national emissions were slightly greater than their targets.

In total, the 36 countries that fully participated in the Protocol were committed to reducing their aggregate emissions by 4% from the 1990 base year. Their average annual emissions in 2008–2012 were 24.2% below the 1990 level. Hence, they surpassed their aggregate commitment by a large margin. If the United States and Canada are included, the emissions decreased by 11.8%. The large reductions were mainly thanks to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which reduced the emissions of the Eastern Bloc by tens of percents in the early 1990s. In addition, the financial crisis of 2007–08 significantly reduced emissions during the first Kyoto commitment period.

The 36 countries that were committed to emission reductions only accounted for 24% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. Even though these countries significantly reduced their emissions during the Kyoto commitment period, other countries increased their emissions so much that the global emissions increased by 32% from 1990 to 2010.

Emission trends in developing countries

In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009). For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990–2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.

Views on the flexibility mechanisms

Further information: Flexible Mechanisms § Views on the flexibility mechanisms, and carbon emission trading

Another area which has been commented on is the role of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms – carbon emission trading, Joint Implementation, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The flexibility mechanisms have attracted both positive and negative comments.

One of the arguments made in favour of the flexibility mechanisms is that they can reduce the costs incurred by Annex I Parties in meeting their Kyoto commitments. Criticisms of flexibility have, for example, included the ineffectiveness of emissions trading in promoting investment in non-fossil energy sources, and adverse impacts of CDM projects on local communities in developing countries.

China, India, Indonesia and Brazil were not required to reduce their CO2 emissions. The remaining signatory countries were not obliged to implement a common framework nor specific measures, but to reach an emission reduction target for which they can benefit of a secondary market for carbon credits multilaterally exchanged from each other. The Emissions-trading Scheme (ETS) allowed countries to host polluting industries and to buy from other countries the property of their environmental merits and virtuous patterns.

A 2021 review considers both the institutional design and the political strategies that have affected the adoption of the Kyoto protocol. It concludes that the Kyoto protocol's relatively small impact on global carbon dioxide emissions reflects a number of factors, including "deliberate political strategy, unequal power, and the absence of leadership" among and within nations. The efforts of fossil fuel interests and conservative think tanks to spread disinformation and climate change denial have influenced public opinion and political action both within the United States and beyond it. The direct lobbying of fossil fuel companies and their funding of political actors have slowed political action to address climate change at regional, national, and international levels.

Amendment and successor

Main article: Post–Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions

In the non-binding "Washington Declaration" agreed on 16 February 2007, heads of governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisaged a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and initially hoped that it would be in place by 2009.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was one of the annual series of UN meetings that followed the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. In 1997 the talks led to the Kyoto Protocol, and the conference in Copenhagen was considered to be the opportunity to agree a successor to Kyoto that would bring about meaningful carbon cuts.

The 2010 Cancún agreements include voluntary pledges made by 76 developed and developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases. In 2010, these 76 countries were collectively responsible for 85% of annual global emissions.

By May 2012, the US, Japan, Russia, and Canada had indicated they would not sign up to a second Kyoto commitment period. In November 2012, Australia confirmed it would participate in a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol and New Zealand confirmed that it would not.

New Zealand's climate minister Tim Groser said the 15-year-old Kyoto Protocol was outdated, and that New Zealand was "ahead of the curve" in looking for a replacement that would include developing nations. Non-profit environmental organisations such as the World Wildlife Fund criticised New Zealand's decision to pull out.

On 8 December 2012, at the end of the 2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference, an agreement was reached to extend the Protocol to 2020 and to set a date of 2015 for the development of a successor document, to be implemented from 2020 (see lede for more information). The outcome of the Doha talks has received a mixed response, with small island states critical of the overall package. The Kyoto second commitment period applies to about 11% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. Other results of the conference include a timetable for a global agreement to be adopted by 2015 which includes all countries. At the Doha meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC on 8 December 2012, the European Union chief climate negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, pledged to extend the treaty, binding on the 27 European Member States, up to the year 2020 pending an internal ratification procedure.

Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, called on world leaders to come to an agreement on halting global warming during the 69th Session of the UN General Assembly on 23 September 2014 in New York. The next climate summit was held in Paris in 2015, out of which emerged the Paris Agreement, the successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

See also

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