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In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by or to a particular belligerent, casualties inflicted in one aspect or arena of a conflict or to casualties in the conflict as a whole. Casualties usually refer to both dead and injured. In some calculations, deaths resulting from famine and epidemics are included.

Global estimates of the civilian casualty ratio vary. In 1999, the International Committee of the Red Cross estimated that between 30–65% of conflict casualties were civilians, while the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) indicated, in 2002, that 30–60% of fatalities from conflicts were civilians. In 2017, the UCDP indicated that, for urban warfare, civilians constituted William Eckhardt found that, when averaged across a century, the civilian casualty ratio remained at about 50% for each of the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. It is frequently claimed that 90% of casualties are civilians, but research has shown that to be a myth.

Global estimates

Globally, the civilian casualty ratio often hovers around 50%. It is sometimes stated that 90% of victims of modern wars are civilians, but that is a myth.

In 1989, William Eckhardt studied casualties of conflicts from 1700 to 1987 and found that "the civilian percentage share of war-related deaths remained at about 50% from century to century." He noted the civilian casualty ratio remained consisted despite the fact that number of deaths from wars increased four times faster than the increase in world population, when comparing the 18th century to the 20th century.

In 1999, the International Committee of the Red Cross estimated that between 30–65% of conflict casualties were civilians. The 2005 Human Security Report noted that the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) indicated, in 2002, that 30–60% of fatalities from conflicts were civilians.

The "Cities and Armed Conflict Events (CACE)" database of the UCDP provides death counts for all urban conflicts between 1989 and 2017. According to the CACE, in urban conflicts, 42% of deaths are civilians, 37% are combatants, and 21% are unknown. The database defines as "urban warfare" all armed conflict events occurring in cities with a population of greater than 100,000.

Myth of the 90% of casualties are civilians

During the 1990s, an argument arose that civilian casualty ratio had dramatically increased. The argument stated that, as of 1900, civilians constituted 10% of all casualties, but by the 1990s, civilians constituted 90% of all casualties. This figure has been widely doubted, and research has found little to no evidence that 90% of casualties are civilians. The 2005 Human Security Report called it a "myth" and instead suggested that 30–60% of fatalities from conflicts in 2002 were civilians. Likewise, the International Committee of the Red Cross estimated in 1999, that between 30–65% of conflict casualties were civilians.

There are two original sources for the myth of 90% of casualties being civilians. The first source – Christa Ahlström and Kjell-Åke Nordquist’s 1991Casualties of Conflict published by Uppsala University – stated that "nine out of ten victims (dead and uprooted) of war and armed  conflict today are civilians". Some readers misconstrued it as 90% of fatalities being civilians. In fact, the same report counted only fatalities for the year of 1989 and in that case found only 67% of fatalities were civilians. The second source was Ruth Sivard's World Military and Social Expenditures, also published in 1991. Sivard did indeed say that 90% of deaths in conflicts, during the year 1990, were civilian. But Sivard included famine-related deaths, which are typically not counted in civilian casualty ratios. Sivard was also criticized for not stating her sources, and the Human Security Report 2005 noted there was insufficient global data on deaths caused by war-related famine. Nevertheless, these claims were erroneously picked up by Graca Machel's "The Machel Review 1996–2000: A Critical Analysis of Progress Made and Obstacles Encountered in Increasing Protection for War-Affected Children" written for the UNICEF.

Mexican Revolution (1910–20)

Although it is estimated that over 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 combatant deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.

World War I

Some 7 million combatants on both sides are estimated to have died during World War I, along with an estimated 10 million non-combatants, including 6.6 million civilians. The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 59%. Boris Urlanis notes a lack of data on civilian losses in the Ottoman Empire, but estimates 8.6 million military killed and dead and 6 million civilians killed and dead in the other warring countries. The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 42%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine, typhus, or Spanish flu rather than combat action. The relatively low ratio of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the Western Front, were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones.

Germany suffered 300-750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the Allied blockade. Russia and Turkey suffered civilian casualties in the millions in the Russian Civil War and invasion of Anatolia respectively. Armenia suffered up to 1.5 million civilians dead in the Armenian genocide.

World War II

According to most sources, World War II was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. According to some, the civilian to combatant fatality ratio in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%. According to others, the ratio is at least 3:1 and potentially higher. The high ratio of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing effectiveness and lethality of strategic weapons which were used to target enemy industrial or population centers, and famines caused by economic disruption. An estimated 2.1–3 million Indians died in the Bengal famine of 1943 in India during World War II. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by Axis Powers as a result of genocide such as the Holocaust or other ethnic cleansing campaigns.

Korean War

The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 2,730,000. The total estimated North Korean combatant deaths is 213,000 and the estimated Chinese combatant deaths is over 400,000. In addition to this the Republic of Korea combatant deaths is around 134,000 dead and the combatant deaths for the United Nations side is around 49,000 dead and missing (40,000 dead, 9,000 missing). The estimated total Korean war military dead is around 793,000 deaths. The civilian-combatant death ratio in the war is approximately 3:1 or 75%. One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.

Vietnam War

The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the Vietnam War at two million, and the number of NVA and Viet Cong killed at 1.1 million—estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources. This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 2:1, or 67%. These figures do not include civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos. However, the lowest estimate of 411,000 civilians killed during the war (including civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos) would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 1:3, or 25%. Using the lowest estimate of Vietnamese military deaths, 400,000, the ratio is about 1:1.

1982 Lebanon War

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the stated aim of driving the PLO away from its northern borders. The war culminated in a seven-week-long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.

According to the International Red Cross, by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of 4:1. Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians. This gives a civilian to military casualty ratio of about 6:1.

According to Richard A. Gabriel between 1,000 and 3,000 civilians were killed in the southern campaign. He states that an additional 4,000 to 5,000 civilians died from all actions of all sides during the siege of Beirut, and that some 2,000 Syrian soldiers were killed during the Lebanon campaign and a further 2,400 PLO guerillas were also killed. Of these, 1,000 PLO guerrillas were killed during the siege. According to Gabriel the ratio of civilian deaths to combatants during the siege was about 6 to 1 but this ratio includes civilian deaths from all actions of all sides.

Chechen wars

During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 4.3:1. The combined ratio for both wars is 7.6:1. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable. The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.

NATO in Yugoslavia

In 1999, NATO intervened in the Kosovo War with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.

Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo. Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. Human Rights Watch counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.

If the NATO figures are to be believed, the bombings achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.

Afghanistan War

According to the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, as of January 2015 roughly 92,000 people had been killed in the Afghanistan war, of which over 26,000 were civilians, for a civilian to combatant ratio of 1:2.5.

Iraq War

According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces (including Iraqi government forces) had killed at least 28,736 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating a civilian to combatant casualty ratio inflicted by coalition forces of 1:2. However, overall, figures by the Iraq Body Count from 20 March 2003 to 14 March 2013 indicate that of 174,000 casualties only 39,900 were combatants, resulting in a civilian casualty rate of 77%. Most civilians were killed by anti-government insurgents and unidentified third parties.

US drone strikes in Pakistan

The civilian casualty ratio for U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan conducted during 2004 and 2018 as part of the War on Terror is notoriously difficult to quantify. In 2010, the U.S. itself put the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the NGO CIVIC. At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution suggested in 2009 that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America. An ongoing study by the New America Foundation finds non-militant casualty rates started high but declined steeply over time, from about 60% (3 out of 5) in 2004–2007 to less than 2% (1 out of 50) in 2012. In 2011, the study put the overall non-militant casualty rate since 2004 at 15–16%, or a 1:5 ratio, out of a total of between 1,908 and 3,225 people killed in Pakistan by drone strikes since 2004.

War against the Islamic state

The global coalition's War against the Islamic State, from 2014, had led to as many as 50,000 ISIL combatant casualties by the end of 2016. Airwars calculated that 8,200–13,275 civilians were killed in Coalition airstrikes, mainly up to the end of 2017, with especially high casualty rates during the Battle of Mosul. An Associated Press investigation found that in the Battle of Mosul, of the >9,000 fatalities, between 42% and 60% were civilians.

Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Estimates of civilian casualties from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict differ.

2000–2007

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) estimated 4,228 Palestinians and 1,024 Israelis were killed between 2000 and 2007. It quoted B'Tselem estimating that of the Israelis killed by Palestinians, 31% were members of the IDF, while 69% were civilians. For the Palestinians killed by Israelis, 41% were combatants while 59% were civilians.

During this period various other claims were made regarding Palestinian civilian to combatants killed by Israel. Amos Harel wrote that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio of Israeli airstrikes (not including ground operations) was 1:1 in 2003, but by 2007 it had improved to 1:30. Meanwhile, the Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet claimed that of the Palestinians killed between 2006–2007 period in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank), only 20% were civilians. The Ha'aretz criticized the Shin Bet as underestimating the civilian casualties. B'Tselem data of Palestinians killed by Israel in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank) Jan 1, 2006 to Dec 31, 2007, shows 821 killed, of which 405 were combatants (49%), 346 non-combatants (42%) and the rest with unknown status.

Israel–Gaza conflict

In operations in Gaza since 2008, the ratio again dropped, as low as 3:1 during the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict.

Yagil Levy, an Israeli sociologist writing in Ha'aretz at the end of 2023, analysed civilian casualty rates in five Israeli aerial operations: Pillar of Defense (~1 week in November 2012); Guardian of the Walls (~10 days in May 2021); Breaking Dawn (3 days, August 2022); Shield and Arrow (5 days in May 2023); and the first two months of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, based on reports of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. He calculated civilian fatality rates for these as follows: 40%, 40%, 42%, 33% and 61%.

2008–09 Gaza War

Palestinian casualties

The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.

The Goldstone Report into the conflict concluded that while there were many individual Gaza policemen who were members of militant groups, the Gaza police forces were a civilian police force and "cannot be said to have been taking a direct part in hostilities and thus did not lose their civilian immunity from direct attack as civilians".

Israeli casualties

13 Israelis were killed during the conflict, including 10 IDF soldiers (4 killed by friendly fire), giving a civilian casualty ratio for Palestinian forces of 24% or 3:10.

Israel in the 2014 Gaza war

Reports of casualties in the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict have been made available by a variety of sources. Most media accounts have used figures provided by the government in Gaza or non-governmental organizations. Differing methodologies have resulted in varied reports of both the overall death toll and the civilian casualty ratio.

According to the main estimates between 2,125 and 2,310 Gazans were killed and between 10,626 and 10,895 were wounded (including 3,374 children, of whom over 1,000 were left permanently disabled). 66 Israeli soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians (including one child) and one Thai civilian were killed and 469 IDF soldiers and 261 Israeli civilians were injured. The Gaza Health Ministry, UN and some human rights groups reported that 69–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians; Israeli officials estimated that around 50% of those killed were civilians., giving Israeli forces a ratio between 1:1 and 3:1 during the conflict.

In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed in the conflict, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status, giving Israeli forces a ratio of 3:1.

2023 Israel–Hamas war

On October 7, 2023, Hamas led an attack on Israel which killed 1,140 Israelis, of which 695 were Israeli civilians, as well as 373 soldiers from various military positions and 71 foreign civilians, a ratio of 2:1 between civilians and militant forces. During the invasion of the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported around 300 deaths of soldiers, while the Hamas al Qassam Brigade estimated the number around 4,000 to 5,000 deaths of Israeli soldiers, Following the attack, Israel started extensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip followed by a large-scale ground invasion beginning on the 27th.

As of September 2024, more than 41,000 people killed by Israel in Gaza according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, since October 7, 2023, in addition to an estimated 10,000 bodies missing under the rubble. Among these numbers, 56% are estimated to be women and children. An investigation by the UN Human Rights Office into a subset of 8,119 verified fatalities found around 70% of them to be women and children, with 5-9 year olds the most heavily represented group.

According to the Israeli Defense Force, over 17,000 Palestinian militants were killed out of about 41,000 total people killed as of September 2024, which would suggest a civilian to combatant ratio of about 1.4:1. Some sources have doubted the Israeli official reports. In March 2024, Haaretz interviewed several standing army commanders and reserve commanders who cast doubt on Israel's official figures of how many terrorists it had killed. It is possible that some of those included in the combatant killed count were "Palestinians who never held a gun in their lives". Some observers believe Israel treats all adult male casualties as militants. Other observers argue that Israel could be arriving at inflated figures of militant deaths by including all civil servants as militants. In early December, Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor estimated that 90% of the casualties were civilians. On May 30, professor Adam Gaffney of Harvard Medical School estimated civilians constituted 80% of total killed. On August 2, professor Michael Spagat also estimated that roughly 80% of GHM recorded deaths constituted civilians. These estimates do not include the indirect deaths (caused by the famine and the collapse of the healthcare system), which are likely to be much higher. In February 2024, a joint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University found the war continuing at status quo would result in between 58,260 and 74,290 excess deaths by 6 August. Claims of exacerbated civilian casualties by Hamas's or other militant group's use of civilians as human shields are unsubstantiated. No evidence has been found for similar allegations by Israeli authorities from 2009.

See also

• Non-combatant casualty value
• Casualty recording
• Collateral damage
• Asymmetric warfare
• Fourth generation warfare
• Loss exchange ratio
• Just war
  • Distinction (law)
  • Proportionality (law)
  • Military necessity

Notes

1. B'Tselem reported fatalities of 180 children 0-5 years old and 347 children 6-17 years old.
2. Women over 18 and under 60
3. B'Tselem includes men and women over 60 in the "elderly" category

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• Hartley, Cathy et al (2004): Survey of Arab-Israeli Relations, p. 91, Routledge, ISBN 978-1-85743-261-9.
• Larson, Eric V. (2007): Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime, pp. 65, 71, RAND Corp., ISBN 978-0-8330-3897-5.
• Layoun, Mary N. et al (2001): Wedded to the Land? Gender, Boundaries, & Nationalism in Crisis, p. 134, Duke University Press, ISBN 978-0-8223-2545-1.
• Mattar, Philip: (2005): Encyclopedia Of The Palestinians, p. 47, Facts on File, ISBN 978-0-8160-5764-1.
• Sadowski, Yahya M. (1998): The Myth of Global Chaos, p. 134, Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 978-0-8157-7664-2.
• Snow, Donald M. (1996): Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts, pp. 64-66, Lynne Rienner Publishers, ISBN 978-1-55587-655-5.

Further reading

• Dumas, Samuel; Vedel-Petersen, K. O. (1923). "Chapter VII: The mortality of the civilian population". In Westergaard, Harald (ed.). Losses of Life Caused by War. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

• Ratios
• War
• War on terror
• Civilian casualties