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{{short description|American physicist and climatologist}} | |||
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{{Use mdy dates|date=January 2021}} | |||
{{Infobox scientist | |||
| name = Michael E. Mann | |||
| image = Michael E. Mann, 2019 (cropped).jpg | |||
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| caption = Mann in 2019 | |||
| birth_name = Michael Evan Mann | |||
| birth_date = {{Birth year and age|1965}} | |||
| birth_place = ], U.S. | |||
| known_for = ]<br /> ]<br />Lead author on the ] | |||
| education = ] (])<br /> ] (], ], ])<ref name=cv/> | |||
| alma_mater = | |||
| workplaces = ], ], ] | |||
| fields = ] | |||
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| awards = ] Fellow (2012)<ref name="AGU Fellow"/><br /> ] (2012)<ref name=cv/><br /> ] Public Engagement with Science Award (AAAS)<br />AGU Climate Communication Prize (2018)<ref>{{Cite news| url=https://news.psu.edu/story/534583/2018/09/04/research/mann-receives-2018-agu-climate-communication-prize| title=Mann receives 2018 AGU Climate Communication Prize | publisher= Penn State University| website= news.psu.edu| language=en|access-date=February 13, 2019}}</ref><br />Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement (2019)<ref>{{Cite web| url= https://news.psu.edu/story/558486/2019/02/12/research/michael-mann-awarded-2019-tyler-prize-environmental-achievement|title=Michael Mann awarded the 2019 Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement | publisher= Penn State University| website= news.psu.edu| language=en|access-date=February 12, 2019}}</ref><br /> Member of the ] (2020)<ref name="NAS">{{cite web |url= http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/news/2020-nas-election.html |title=2020 NAS Election |publisher= National Academy of Sciences}}</ref><br> | |||
Foreign Member ] (2024) <ref>{{cite web |title=Outstanding scientists elected as Fellows of the Royal Society |url=https://royalsociety.org/news/2024/05/new-fellows-2024/}}</ref> | |||
| website = | |||
'''Michael Mann''' is a well-known ], author of more than 80 ]ed journal publications. He has attained public prominence as lead author of a number of articles on ] which feature a graph of temperature trends dubbed the "hockey stick graph" for the shape of the trend line. In August 2005 he was appointed Associate Professor at ], in the Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, and Director of the university's interdepartmental Earth System Science Center. He previously taught at the ], in the Department of Environmental Sciences (1999 - 2005). | |||
}} | |||
'''Michael Evan Mann''' (born 1965) is an American ] and ].<ref name= cv/><ref>{{cite web |website= earth.stanford.edu |url= https://earth.stanford.edu/events/conversation-michael-e-mann#gs.jc0lmm |title=A Conversation With Michael E. Mann |publisher=Stanford University |access-date=June 16, 2018}}</ref> He is the director of the Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the ]. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic ] based on the ]. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change and to isolate climate signals from ].<ref name= "EGU hans-oeschger">{{Cite web | title = EGU – Awards & Medals – Hans Oeschger Medal – Michael Mann | url = http://www.egu.eu/awards-medals/hans-oeschger/2012/michael-mann/ |website= egu.eu | publisher = ] | year = 2012 | access-date = September 19, 2013 }}</ref> | |||
== Career == | |||
He was a Lead Author on the “” chapter of the ] (IPCC) ] (2001). He has been organizing committee chair for the ] ‘Frontiers of Science’ and has served as a committee member or advisor for other National Academy of Sciences panels. He served as editor for the '']'' and has been a member of numerous international and U.S. scientific advisory panels and steering groups. Dr. Mann has been the recipient of several fellowships and prizes, including selection as one of the 50 leading visionaries in Science and Technology by '']'', the outstanding scientific publication award of the ] (NOAA), and recognition by the ] (ISI) for notable citation of his refereed scientific research. | |||
As lead author of a paper produced in 1998 with co-authors ] and ], Mann used advanced statistical techniques to find regional variations in a hemispherical climate reconstruction covering the past 600 years. In 1999 the same team used these techniques to produce a reconstruction over the past 1,000 years (MBH99), which was dubbed the "]" because of its shape. He was one of eight lead authors of the "Observed Climate Variability and Change" chapter of the ] (IPCC) ] published in 2001. A graph based on the MBH99 paper was highlighted in several parts of the report and was given wide publicity. The IPCC acknowledged that his work, along with that of the many other lead authors and review editors, contributed to the award of the ], which was won jointly by the IPCC and ]. | |||
He is best known for his ] 'hockey stick' reconstructions of the past several millennia from tree ring, ice core, coral and other data. See ] for more details and dispute. Mann's recent work has been on modelling ], and he has warned that "we are already committed to 50 to 100 years of global warming and several centuries of sea level rise" and that reduction in ] emissions is required to slow the process down to a level that can be coped with. | |||
Mann was organizing committee chair for the ] Frontiers of Science in 2003 and has received a number of honors and awards including selection by '']'' as one of the fifty leading visionaries in science and technology in 2002. In 2012 he was inducted as a Fellow of the ] and was awarded the ] of the ]. In 2013, he was elected a Fellow of the ] and awarded the status of ] in Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. In 2017, he was elected a Fellow of the ].<ref name= "csifellow"/> | |||
=== Hockey stick === | |||
] | |||
Mann is author of more than 200 peer-reviewed and edited publications. He has also published six books: ''Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming '' (2008), '']'' (2012), together with co-author ], ''The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy'' (2016) with Megan Herbert, ''The Tantrum That Saved the World'' (2018), '']'' (2021), and ''Our Fragile Moment'' (2023). In 2012, the European Geosciences Union described his publication record as "outstanding for a scientist of his relatively young age". Mann is a co-founder and contributor to the climatology blog '']''. | |||
''Scientific American'' magazine described him as the "Man behind the Hockey Stick", referring to his reconstruction of temperatures, originally published in 1998. He has been personally involved in the debate over climate change. In testimony before the US Senate in 2003, he stated: | |||
==Early life, undergraduate studies== | |||
: ''It is the consensus of the climate research community that the anomalous warmth of the late 20th century cannot be explained by natural factors, but instead indicates significant anthropogenic, that is human influences... More than a dozen independent research groups have now reconstructed the average temperature of the northern hemisphere in past centuries... The proxy reconstructions, taking into account these uncertainties, indicate that the warming of the northern hemisphere during the late 20th century... is unprecedented over at least the past millennium and it now appears based on peer-reviewed research, probably the past two millennia''. | |||
Mann was born in 1965,<ref name="BecherRichey2008">{{cite book| author1=Anne Becher|author2=Joseph Richey|title=American Environmental Leaders: M–Z|url= https://books.google.com/books?id=AGtYAAAAYAAJ|year=2008|publisher=Grey House Pub.|isbn=978-1-59237-119-8}}</ref> and brought up in ], where his father was a professor of mathematics at the ].<ref>{{MathGenealogy|id=25108|name=Lawrence N. Mann}}</ref> He is of Jewish ancestry.<ref>{{cite web |author1=MichaelEMann |title=MichaelEMann on Twitter |url=https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/963512449130532864 |website=twitter.com |access-date=9 April 2024 |date=2018-02-13 |quote=As someone of Jewish ancestry, I'm truly horrified that anyone could be so cynical and insensitive}}</ref> At school he was interested in math, science, and computing. In August 1984 he went to the ], to major in physics with a second major in applied math. His second-year research in the theoretical behaviour of ]s used the ] applying randomness in computer simulations. Late in 1987, he joined a research team under Didier de Fontaine which was using similar Monte Carlo methodology to investigate the superconducting properties of ], modelling transitions between ordered and disordered phases.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=5–6}}</ref> He graduated with honors in 1989 with an A.B. in applied mathematics and physics.<ref name=cv/> | |||
===Doctoral and postgraduate studies=== | |||
The battle over his work has been unusually personal, with Senator ] (R-OK) saying his work was "a hoax", while Mann has replied that the attacks were "intellectually pathetic" and "deceptive". More recently, Representative ] (R-TX-06) has requested information from Mann and co-authors about his work ; this has been widely seen as "a search for some basis on which to discredit these particular scientists and findings, rather than a search for understanding" . It was later discovered that the whole controversy was based upon the research of ]. McIntyre claims that many statistical methods used to generate Mann's hockey stick were applied incorrectly and that Mann used data known to be faulty. McIntyre created his own plot of past temperatures which shows a smaller temperature rise in the 20th century than in the 14th century. | |||
Mann then attended ], intending to obtain a ] in physics, and received both an ] and an ] in physics in 1991. His interest was in theoretical ] but he found himself being pushed towards detailed semiconductor work. He looked at course options with a wider topic area and was enthused by PhD adviser Barry Saltzman about climate modelling and research. To try this out he spent the summer of 1991 assisting a ]er in simulating the period of peak ] warmth when ] levels were high, but fossils indicated most warming at the poles, with little warming in the tropics. Mann then joined the Yale Department of Geology and Geophysics, obtaining an MPhil in geology and geophysics in 1993. His research focused on natural variability and ]s. He worked with the ] Jeffrey Park, and their joint research adapted a statistical method developed for identifying seismological oscillations to find various periodicities in the instrumental temperature record, the longest being about 60 to 80 years. The paper Mann and Park published in December 1994 came to conclusions similar to those from a study developed in parallel using different methodology and published in January of that year, which found what was later called the ].<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=1–2, 6–10, 28–30}}<br />{{cite journal |last1=Mann |first1=M.E. |last2=Park |first2=J. |year=1994 |url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/MannPark1994.pdf |title=Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scales |doi=10.1029/94JD02396 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research |volume=99 |issue=D12 |pages=25819–25833 |bibcode=1994JGR....9925819M}}<br />{{Cite journal | last1 = Schlesinger | first1 = M. E. | last2 = Ramankutty | first2 = N. | doi = 10.1038/367723a0 | title = An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years | journal = Nature | volume = 367 | issue = 6465 | pages = 723–726 | year = 1994 | bibcode = 1994Natur.367..723S | s2cid = 4351411 }}</ref> | |||
In 1994, Mann participated as a graduate student in the inaugural workshop of the ]'s Geophysical Statistics Project aimed at encouraging active collaboration between statisticians, climatologists and atmospheric scientists. Leading statisticians participated, including ] and ].<ref>{{Citation|mode=cs1 |author= House Committee on Energy and Commerce |year=2006 |title= Questions surrounding the 'Hockey stick' temperature studies; implications for climate change assessments |publisher= ] |url= http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109hhrg31362/html/CHRG-109hhrg31362.htm |access-date= August 1, 2010 |pages=765–766 |series= Hearings before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, 109th Congress, Second session }} ().</ref> | |||
More recently, the National Research Council considered the matter. On June 22, 2006, the Council released a pre-publication version of its report ''Report-Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years.'' This publication reported mixed results. | |||
While still finishing his PhD research, Mann met UMass climate science professor ] and began research in collaboration with him and Park. Their research used paleoclimate proxy data from Bradley's previous work and methods Mann had developed with Park, to find oscillations in the longer proxy records. "Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries" was published by '']'' in November 1995.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=30–34}}<br />{{Cite journal | last1 = Mann | first1 = Michael E. | last2 = Park | first2 = Jeffrey | last3 = Bradley | first3 = R. S. | doi = 10.1038/378266a0 | title = Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries | journal = Nature | volume = 378 | issue = 6554 | pages = 266–270 | year = 1995 |bibcode = 1995Natur.378..266M | s2cid = 30872107 }}</ref> | |||
] has posted that ''the panel has found reason to support the key mainstream findings of past research, including points that we have highlighted previously''. According to ] this produced a ''near-complete vindication for the work of Mann et al.'' ; Nature reported it as ''Academy affirms hockey-stick graph'' . | |||
Another study by Mann and Park raised a minor technical issue with a climate model about human influence on climate change: this was published in 1996. In the context of the controversy over the ] the paper was praised by those opposed to action on climate change, and the conservative organization ] claimed that it had not been publicized due to ]. Mann defended his PhD thesis on ''A study of ocean-atmosphere interaction and low-frequency variability of the climate system'' in the spring of 1996,<ref>{{cite book | title=A study of ocean-atmosphere interaction and low-frequency variability of the climate system | year=1998 | publisher=] | isbn=9780231152549 |oclc = 54219996}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=1–2, 41, 265–266}}</ref> and was awarded the Phillip M. Orville Prize for outstanding dissertation in the earth sciences in the following year. He was granted his PhD in geology and geophysics in 1998.<ref name=cv/> | |||
According to , and , "With respect to methods, the (National Research Council’s Report-Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006)) is showing reservations concerning the methodology of Mann et al. The committee notes explicitly on pages 91 and 111 that the method has no validation (CE) skill significantly different from zero. In the past, however, it has always been claimed that the method has a significant nonzero validation skill. Methods without a validation skill are usually considered useless." . | |||
===Postdoctoral research: the hockey stick graph=== | |||
However, CE is not the only measure of skill; Mann et al (1998) used the more traditional "RE" score, which, unlike CE, accounts for the fact that time series change their mean value over time. The statistically significant reconstruction skill in the Mann et al. reconstruction is independently supported in the peer-reviewed literature by Huybers (2005) and Wahl and Ammann (2006) . | |||
] of Mann et al. 1999, smoothed curve shown in blue with its uncertainty range in light blue, overlaid with green dots showing the 30-year global average of the {{harvnb|PAGES 2k Consortium|2013}} reconstruction. The red curve shows measured global mean temperature, according to ]4 data from 1850 to 2013.]] | |||
] 2016]] | |||
From 1996 to 1998, after defending his PhD thesis at Yale, Mann carried out ] research at the ] funded by a ] postdoctoral fellowship. He collaborated with ] and Bradley's colleague ], a Professor of ] at the ], with the aim of developing and applying an improved statistical approach to ] reconstructions. He taught a course in Data Analysis and Climate Change in 1997 and became a research assistant professor the following year.<ref name=cv /><ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=41–42}}</ref> | |||
The first truly quantitative reconstruction of ] temperatures had been published in 1993 by Bradley and ], but it and subsequent reconstructions compiled averages for decades, covering the whole hemisphere. Mann wanted temperatures of individual years showing differences between regions, to find spatial patterns showing natural oscillations and the effect of events such as volcanic eruptions. Sophisticated statistical methods had already been applied to ], but to get wider geographical coverage these tree ring records had to be related to sparser proxies such as ice cores, corals and lake sediments. To avoid giving too much weight to the more numerous tree data, Mann, Bradley and Hughes used the statistical procedure of ] to represent these larger datasets in terms of a small number of representative series and compare them to the sparser proxy records. The same procedure was also used to represent key information in the ] for comparison with the proxy series, enabling ] of the reconstruction. They chose the period 1902–1980 for calibration, leaving the previous 50 years of instrumental data for validation. This showed that the statistical reconstructions were only skillful (statistically meaningful) back to 1400.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=40–48}}</ref> | |||
A report (July 19, 2006) by statistical experts done for the Committee on Energy and Commerce of the U.S. Congress largely repeats the criticisms of M&M ; Mann has said that the report ''uncritically parrots claims by two Canadians (an economist and an oil industry consultant) that have already been refuted by several papers in the peer-reviewed literature inexplicably neglected by Barton’s “panel”. These claims were specifically dismissed by the National Academy in their report just weeks ago'' . | |||
Their study highlighted interesting findings, such as confirming anecdotal evidence that there had been a strong ] in 1791, and finding that in 1816 the "]" in Eurasia and much of North America had been offset by warmer than usual temperatures in Labrador and the Middle East. It was also an advance on earlier reconstructions in that it went back further, showed individual years, and showed ] with ]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|p=48}}</ref> "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries" (MBH98) was published on April 23, 1998, in the journal '']''. In it, "Spatially resolved global reconstructions of annual surface temperature patterns" were related to "changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations, ], and volcanic aerosols" leading to the conclusion that "each of these factors has contributed to the climate variability of the past 400 years, with greenhouse gases emerging as the dominant ] during the twentieth century. Northern Hemisphere mean annual temperatures for three of the past eight years are warmer than any other year since (at least) AD 1400.<ref>{{Cite journal | last1 = Mann | first1 = M. E. | title = Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries | last2 = Bradley | first2 = R. S. | last3 = Hughes | first3 = M. K. | journal = Nature | volume = 392 | issue = 6678 | pages = 779–787 | year = 1998 | doi = 10.1038/33859 |bibcode = 1998Natur.392..779M | s2cid = 129871008 }}</ref> The last point received most media attention. Mann was surprised by the extent of coverage which may have been due to the chance release of the paper on ] in an unusually warm year. In a ] interview, ] repeatedly asked him if it proved that humans were responsible for global warming, to which he would go no further than that it was "highly suggestive" of that inference.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=48–50}}</ref> | |||
== Selected publications == | |||
In May 1998, ], ] and colleagues published a reconstruction going back a thousand years, but not specifically estimating uncertainties. As Bradley recalls, Mann's initial reaction to the paper was "Look at this. This is rubbish. You can't do this. There isn't enough information. There's too much uncertainty." Bradley suggested using the MBH98 methodology to go further back. Within a few weeks, Mann responded that to his surprise, "There is a certain amount of skill. We can actually say something, although there are large uncertainties."<ref>{{Cite journal | last1 = Jones | first1 = P. D. | last2 = Briffa | first2 = K. R. | last3 = Barnett | first3 = T. P. | last4 = Tett | first4 = S. F. B. | title = High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures | doi = 10.1191/095968398667194956 | journal = The Holocene | volume = 8 | issue = 4 | pages = 455–471 | year = 1998 | bibcode = 1998Holoc...8..455J | s2cid = 2227769 }}</ref><ref name="Monastersky">{{cite news |url=http://chronicle.com/article/Climate-Science-on-Trial/34665 |title=Climate Science on Trial – Research |first=Richard |last=Monastersky |date=September 8, 2006 |newspaper=] |page=10 |access-date=March 6, 2011}}</ref> Mann carried out a series of statistical ] on 24 long term datasets, in which he statistically "]" each proxy in turn to see the effect its removal had on the result. He found that a dataset which would otherwise have been reliable diverged from 1800 until around 1900, suggesting that it had been affected for that time by the {{CO2}} "]". Using this dataset corrected in comparisons with other tree series, their reconstruction passed the validation tests for the extended period, but they were cautious about the increased uncertainties involved.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=50–53}}</ref> | |||
* Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005. | |||
* Schmidt, G.A., Shindell, D.T., Miller, R.L., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., General Circulation Modeling of Holocene climate variability, Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2167-2181, 2004. | |||
The Mann, Bradley and Hughes reconstruction covering 1,000 years (MBH99) was published by '']'' in March 1999 with the cautious title ''Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations''.<ref name="Monastersky" /><ref>{{Cite journal | last1 = Mann | first1 = M. E. | last2 = Bradley | first2 = R. S. | last3 = Hughes | first3 = M. K. | doi = 10.1029/1999GL900070 | title = Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations | journal = Geophysical Research Letters | volume = 26 | issue = 6 | pages = 759–762 | year = 1999 | bibcode=1999GeoRL..26..759M| url = https://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1033&context=raymond_bradley | doi-access = free }}</ref> Mann said that "As you go back farther in time, the data becomes sketchier. One can't quite pin things down as well, but, our results do reveal that significant changes have occurred, and temperatures in the latter 20th century have been exceptionally warm compared to the preceding 900 years. Though substantial uncertainties exist in the estimates, these are nonetheless startling revelations."<ref name="MBH99 News Release">{{cite web|url=http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/newsreleases/articles/12577.php |title=News Releases : 1998 Was Warmest Year of Millennium, UMass Amherst Climate Researchers Report |date=March 3, 1999 |website=www.umass.edu |publisher=] Office of News & Information |access-date=March 6, 2011 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629171730/http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/newsreleases/articles/12577.php |archive-date=June 29, 2011 }}</ref> When Mann gave a talk about the study to the ]'s ], climatologist ] nicknamed the graph the "hockey stick".<ref name="Monastersky" /> | |||
* Andronova, N.G., Schlesinger, M.E., Mann, M.E., Are Reconstructed Pre-Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures Consistent With Instrumental Hemispheric Temperatures?, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12202, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019658, 2004. | |||
* Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004. | |||
==Career== | |||
* Mann, M.E., On Smoothing Potentially Non-Stationary Climate Time Series, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07214, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019569, 2004. | |||
===University positions=== | |||
* Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Faluvegi, G., Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D05104, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004. | |||
In 1999, Mann secured a position as a tenure-track assistant professor in the department of environmental sciences at the ]. He left Virginia in 2005 to become an associate professor in the department of meteorology (with joint appointments in department of geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute) at ], where he was also appointed the director of its Earth System Science Center. He was promoted to ] in 2009 and to "Distinguished Professor of Meteorology" in 2013.<ref name=cv /> In fall 2022 Mann was appointed presidential distinguished professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science with a secondary appointment in the Annenberg School for Communication at the ].<ref name=cv /> | |||
* Mann, M.E., Jones, P.D., Global surface temperature over the past two millennia, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (15), 1820, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017814, 2003. | |||
* Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J.T., Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., On Past Temperatures and Anomalous Late 20th Century Warmth,Eos, 84, 256-258, 2003. | |||
===IPCC Third Assessment Report=== | |||
* Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ground vs. Surface Air Temperature Trends: Implications for Borehole Surface Temperature Reconstructions,Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (12), 1607, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017170, 2003. | |||
Before the publication of MBH98, Mann had been nominated to be an author on the ]. Late in 1998 he heard that he had been selected as a lead author for the "observations" chapter of the Working Group I report. He was to work with the numerous contributing authors in preparing an assessment of the state of knowledge of the paleoclimate record, starting by soliciting input from the leading experts in that field.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|2012|p=53}}</ref> | |||
* Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Keimig, F.T., Optimal Surface Temperature Reconstructions using Terrestrial Borehole Data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D7), 4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532, 2003. | |||
* Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Delworth, T.L., Stouffer, R., Climate Field Reconstruction Under Stationary and Nonstationary Forcing, Journal of Climate, 16, 462-479, 2003. | |||
Mann was one of eight lead authors of the "Observed Climate Variability and Change" chapter of the report, working under the two co-ordinating lead authors for the chapter. The report was published in 2001.<ref>{{cite book | year = 2001 | title = Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis | first1 = J. R. | last1 = Christy | first2 = R. A. | last2 = Clarke | first3 = G. V. | last3 = Gruza | first4 = J. | last4 = Jouzel | first5 = M. E. | last5 = Mann | first6 = J. | last6 = Oerlemans | first7 = M. J. | last7 = Salinger | first8 = S.-W. | last8 = Wang | chapter = Observed Climate Variability and Change | publisher = Cambridge University Press | chapter-url = http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/048.htm | isbn = 978-0-521-80767-8 | url-access = registration | url = https://archive.org/details/climatechange2000000unse }}</ref> | |||
* Mann, M.E. , The Value of Multiple Proxies, Science, 297, 1481-1482, 2002. | |||
* Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Climate Reconstruction Using 'Pseudoproxies', Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10), 1501, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014554, 2002. | |||
===Research=== | |||
* Mann, M.E., Hughes, M.K., Tree-Ring Chronologies and Climate Variability, Science, 296, 848, 2002. | |||
Mann continued his interest in improving methodology to find patterns in high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions: he was the lead author with Bradley and Hughes on a study of long term variability in the ] southern oscillations and related ]s, published in 2000.<ref>{{harvnb|Mann|Bradley|Hughes|2000}}</ref> | |||
* Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Cole, J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, J.M., Overpeck, J.T., von Storch, H., Wanner, H., Weber, S.L., Widmann, M., Reconstructing the Climate of the Late Holocene, Eos, 82, 553, 2001. | |||
His areas of research have included climate signal detection, ] and ], developing and assessing methods of statistical and ] analysis and comparing the results of modelling against data.<ref name=cv /> | |||
* Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E.,Mann, M.E. Medieval Climatic Optimum, Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change,John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 514-516, 2001. | |||
* Mann, M.E. "Little Ice Age", ''Encylopedia of Global Environmental Change'', John Wiley and Sons Ltd, London, UK, pp. 504-509, 2001. | |||
The original MBH98 and MBH99 papers avoided undue representation of large numbers of tree ring proxies by using a ] step to summarise these proxy networks, but from 2001 Mann stopped using this method and introduced a ] Climate Field Reconstruction (CFR) technique using a ] ] (RegEM) method which did not require this PCA step. In May 2002 Mann and Scott Rutherford published a paper on testing methods of climate reconstruction which discussed this technique. By adding artificial noise to actual temperature records or to model simulations they produced synthetic datasets which they called "pseudo proxies". When the reconstruction procedure was used with these pseudoproxies, the result was then compared with the original record or simulation to see how closely it had been reconstructed.<ref name="MR 02">{{harvnb|Mann|2012|pp=104–105, 306}}</ref> | |||
* Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 7, 2149-2152, 2001. | |||
* Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Scope of Medieval Warming, Science, 292, 2011-2012, 2001. | |||
In August 2003 Mann with ] published reconstructions using various high-resolution proxies including tree rings, ice cores and sediments. This study indicated that that Northern Hemisphere late 20th century warmth had no precedent for roughly 2,000 years, dwarfing Medieval warmth, but proxy data was still too sparse to evaluate the Southern Hemisphere.<ref name="MJ2003">{{Harvnb|Mann|Jones|2003}}.</ref> | |||
* Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., Christy, J.R., Clarke, R. A., Gruza, G.V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M.E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M.J., Wang, S.-W., Observed Climate Variability and Change, in 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 99-181, 2001. | |||
More recently, Mann's areas of research have included hurricanes and climate change, and climate modelling.<ref name="research findings">{{Cite web | last = Mann | first = Michael E. | title = Research Findings |url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/research/research_findings.php |website=www.meteo.psu.edu | publisher = Penn State University | access-date = October 1, 2013 }}</ref> His work using comparisons with the results of climate models indicated that cooling from large volcanoes was not fully shown by tree ring reconstructions, and suggested that in extreme cases cooling caused by eruptions could result in trees showing no growth, and hence no tree ring for that year. The result would be that tree ring reconstructions could understate climate variability, and there has been scientific debate about the methodology and validity of these findings.<ref name="ars volcanoes">{{cite web | last = Johnson | first = Scott K. | title = Tree ring history spurs actual climate science debate |url=https://arstechnica.com/science/2013/02/tree-ring-records-spur-actual-climate-science-debate/ | website = ] | date = February 4, 2013 | access-date = October 1, 2013 }}</ref> | |||
A paper published in April 2014 by Mann and co-authors set out a new method of defining the ] (AMO) in place of a problematic method based on detrending the climate signal. They found that in recent decades the AMO had been in a cooling phase, rather than a warming phase as researchers had thought. This cooling had contributed towards the recent ] in surface temperatures, and would change to enhanced surface warming in the next phase of the oscillation.<ref name="news.psu 7Apr14">{{Cite web | last = Messer | first = A'ndrea Elyse | title = Slowdown of global warming fleeting | url = http://news.psu.edu/story/310769/2014/04/07/research/slowdown-global-warming-fleeting |website=news.psu.edu | publisher = Penn State University| date = April 7, 2014 | access-date = April 28, 2014 }}, {{Cite journal | doi = 10.1002/2014GL059233| title = On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO| journal = Geophysical Research Letters| pages = 3211–3219| year = 2014| last1 = Mann | first1 = M. E. | last2 = Steinman | first2 = B. A. | last3 = Miller | first3 = S. K. | volume=41| issue = 9| bibcode = 2014GeoRL..41.3211M| url = http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MannEtAlGRLPreprint.pdf| doi-access = free}} </ref> | |||
In 2018, Mann explained that the west Antarctic ice sheet may lose twice as much ice by the end of the century as previously thought, which also doubles the projected rise in sea level from three feet to more than six feet.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Mann |first1=Michael E.|author-link=Michael E. Mann |title=Climate Scientist Won't Back Down Despite Threats, Harassment |url=https://www.kqed.org/science/1923414/why-this-climate-scientist-is-optimistic-despite-record-co2-levels |website=KQED Science |date=May 7, 2018 |publisher=KQED |access-date=November 27, 2018}}</ref> | |||
In 2020, Mann raised the hypothesis that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), hitherto regarded as internal oscillations of the climate system, are due to climatic noise and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols.<ref>{{Cite journal | doi = 10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w| title = Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations| journal = Nature Communications| last1 = Mann | first1 = M. E. | last2 = Steinman | first2 = B. A. | last3 = Miller | first3 = S. K. | volume=11| issue = 1| bibcode = 2020NatCo..11...49M| url = https://rdcu.be/cgUE0 | date = January 3, 2020 | page = 49| pmid = 31900412| pmc = 6941994| access-date = March 17, 2021 }}</ref> | |||
==Controversy over hockey stick graph== | |||
Figures based on the northern hemisphere mean temperatures graph from MBH99 were prominently featured in the ] of 2001, and became the focus of controversy when some individuals and groups disputed the data and methodology of this reconstruction.<ref name="Part three guardian">{{cite news |url = https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/09/hockey-stick-graph-ipcc-report |title=Part three: Hockey stick graph took pride of place in IPCC report, despite doubts | Environment | first = Fred | last = Pearce | author-link = Fred Pearce |date=February 9, 2010 |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=March 8, 2010 | location=London}}</ref> | |||
The 2006 ] published by the ] endorsed the MBH studies with a few reservations. The principal component analysis methodology had a small tendency to bias results so was not recommended, but it had little influence on the final reconstructions, and other methods produced similar results.<ref>{{Citation|mode=cs1 |date= June 22, 2006 |last1= Revkin |first1= Andrew C. |author-link= Andrew Revkin |title= Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate |newspaper=The New York Times |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/22/science/22cnd-climate.html}}<br />{{cite book | author=((Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, National Research Council)) | url=http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11676 | title=Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the last 2,000 years | year=2006 | publisher=]|doi = 10.17226/11676|isbn = 978-0-309-10225-4}}</ref><ref name=Brumfiel06>{{cite journal | last = Brumfiel | first = G. |title=Academy affirms hockey-stick graph |journal=Nature |volume=441 |issue=7097 |pages=1032–3 |date=June 2006 |doi=10.1038/4411032a |pmid=16810211 |bibcode=2006Natur.441.1032B |doi-access=free }}</ref> Mann has said his findings have been "independently verified by independent teams using alternative methods and alternative data sources."<ref name=Warner_2010-03-28_TMC /> ], using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, support the broad consensus shown in the original hockey stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears.<ref name="Frank 2010">{{cite journal| last1 = Frank | first1 = David| last2 = Esper | first2 = Jan | author-link2 = Jan Esper| last3 = Zorita | first3 = Eduardo | author-link3 = Eduardo Zorita| last4 = Wilson | first4 = Rob| title = A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: A perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology | doi = 10.1002/wcc.53 | journal = ]| volume = 1 | issue = 4 | pages = 507–516 | date = May 14, 2010| s2cid = 16524970| doi-access = free | bibcode = 2010WIRCC...1..507F}}</ref><ref name="Part four guardian">{{cite news |url = https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/09/hockey-stick-michael-mann-steve-mcintyre |title=Part four: Climate change debate overheated after sceptics grasped 'hockey stick' | Environment | first = Fred | last = Pearce |author-link=Fred Pearce |date=February 9, 2010 |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=March 8, 2010 | location=London}}</ref> | |||
===CRU email controversy=== | |||
In November 2009, hackers obtained a large number of emails exchanged among researchers at the ] of the ] and with other scientists, including Mann. The release of their correspondence on the Internet sparked the ], commonly known as "Climategate",<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Douglas |last1=Fischer |author2=The Daily Climate |url=http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climategate-scientist-cleared-in-inquiry-again/ |title=Climategate Scientist Cleared in Inquiry, Again |journal=Scientific American |date=July 1, 2010 |access-date=August 24, 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Damian |last=Carrington |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/20/climategate-longterm-level-climate-change-scepticism |title='Climategate' had only fleeting effect on global warming scepticism |work=The Guardian |date=May 20, 2014 |access-date=August 24, 2015}}</ref> in which extracts from emails were publicized to raise accusations against the scientists. A series of investigations cleared the scientists of wrongdoing. Detailed analysis by the ] (EPA) found that the critics made unsupported accusations of falsification and manipulation or destruction of data and were commonly mistaken about the scientific issues.<ref name="beeb 6 August 2010">{{cite news | title = Scientists' 'Climategate' e-mails 'just discussions' | url = https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-10899538 |publisher=BBC News | date = August 6, 2010 | access-date =January 2, 2014}}</ref><ref name="bloomberg 110822" /> | |||
Mann was specifically cleared by several inquiries. Pennsylvania State University (PSU) commissioned two reviews related to the emails and his research, which reported in February and July 2010. They cleared Mann of misconduct, stating there was no substance to the allegations, but criticized him for sharing unpublished manuscripts with third parties.<ref name="PSU Report">{{cite web|url=http://live.psu.edu/fullimg/userpics/10026/Final_Investigation_Report.pdf|title=Final Investigation Report Involving Dr. Michael E. Mann|date=June 4, 2010 |website=live.psu.edu |publisher=]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100713232736/http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/Final%20Investigation%20Report.pdf|archive-date=July 13, 2010}}</ref><ref name="PSU Findings">{{cite web |url=http://www.research.psu.edu/orp/Findings_Mann_Inquiry.pdf |title=RA-10 Inquiry Report: Concerning the Allegations of Research Misconduct Against Dr. Michael E. Mann, Department of Meteorology, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University |last1=Foley |first1=Henry C. |first2=Alan W. |last2=Scaroni |first3=Candice A. |last3=Yekel |date=February 3, 2010 |website=research.psu.edu |publisher=] |access-date=February 7, 2010 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100215071321/http://www.research.psu.edu/orp/Findings_Mann_Inquiry.pdf |archive-date=February 15, 2010 }} The allegations were of "manipulating data, destroying records and colluding to hamper the progress of scientific discourse around the issue of anthropogenic global warming from approximately 1998."</ref> | |||
The EPA gave detailed consideration to petitions with allegations against Mann from lobbyists including the ], ], the ], and the Ohio Coal Association: the EPA found their claims were not supported by the evidence.<ref name="beeb 6 August 2010" /><ref>{{cite web | url = http://epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment/petitions.html | title = Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act / Regulatory Initiatives / Climate Change / U.S. EPA | access-date =September 16, 2011 | date = July 29, 2010 |website=epa.gov |publisher = Environmental Protection Agency}}</ref> | |||
At the request of Senator ], who has called the science of ] a hoax, the ] of the ] investigated the emails in relation to ], and concluded that there was no evidence of inappropriate manipulation of data.<ref name="bloomberg 110822" /><ref>Zinser, Todd J., Inspector General of the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, in a letter to Sen. Inhofe, February 18, 2011, wrote, "We found no evidence in the CRU emails that NOAA inappropriately manipulated data comprising the GHCN-M dataset."</ref> The ] (OIG) of the ] also carried out a detailed investigation, which it closed on August 15, 2011. It agreed with the conclusions of the university inquiries, and exonerated Mann of charges of scientific misconduct.<ref name="bloomberg 110822">{{Cite news | last = Efstathiou | first = Jim Jr. | title = Climate-Change Scientist Cleared in Closing of U.S. Data-Altering Inquiry | url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-22/climate-change-scientist-cleared-in-u-s-data-altering-inquiry.html |website=bloomberg.com |publisher = ] | date = August 22, 2011 | access-date =January 2, 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | publisher = ] ] | url = http://www.science20.com/uploads/1770191916-429173860.pdf | title = Case Number: A09120086 }}</ref><ref name="IoP 110830">{{Cite web | title = Climate scientist cleared of research misconduct | url = http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/47043 |website=physicsworld.com |publisher=] | date = August 30, 2011 | access-date = January 3, 2012}}</ref> | |||
===Attorney General of Virginia's investigative demand=== | |||
{{main|Attorney General of Virginia's climate science investigation}} | |||
Based on the CRU email leak, Virginia Attorney General ] initiated a ] to obtain documentation relating to Mann's work at the university. The demand sparked widespread academic condemnation as a "blatantly political" attempt to intimidate and silence Mann,<ref name="Walker_2010-05-19_Virginian-Pilot">{{cite web | last = Walker | first = Julian | url = http://hamptonroads.com/2010/05/academics-fight-cuccinellis-call-climatechange-records | title = Academics fight Cuccinelli's call for climate-change records | work = The Virginian-Pilot | date = May 19, 2010 | access-date = May 29, 2010 | archive-date = July 3, 2010 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100703125650/http://hamptonroads.com/2010/05/academics-fight-cuccinellis-call-climatechange-records | url-status = dead }}</ref> and was denied in August 2010 by a judge for failure to state sufficient cause.<ref>{{cite news | url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/30/AR2010083004405.html | title = A judge puts a damper on Mr. Cuccinelli's U-Va. witch hunt | newspaper = The Washington Post | date = August 31, 2010 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | last = Fitzgerald | first = Brendan | url = http://www.c-ville.com/index.php?cat=1991704080566501&act=post&pid=12033008103906006 | title = Court sets aside Cuccinelli investigation of UVA climate scientist | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110716213634/http://www.c-ville.com/index.php?cat=1991704080566501&act=post&pid=12033008103906006 | archive-date = July 16, 2011 | date = August 30, 2010 | access-date = December 21, 2010 | work = ] }}</ref> Cuccinelli tried to re-open his case by issuing a revised subpoena,<ref name="cavalier">{{cite news | newspaper = ] | date = October 6, 2010 | url = http://www.cavalierdaily.com/2010/10/06/cuccinelli-orders-new-investigation | title = Cuccinelli orders new investigation | first = Rebecca | last = Rubin }}</ref> and appealed the case to the Virginia Supreme Court. The case was defended by the university, and the court ruled that Cuccinelli did not have the authority to make these demands. The decision, seen as supporting academic freedom, was welcomed by the ].<ref>{{cite news | last = Kumar | first = Anita | title = Va. Supreme Court tosses Cuccinelli's case against former U-Va. climate change researcher – Virginia Politics | url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/virginia-politics/post/va-supreme-court-tosses-cuccinellis-case-against-u-va/2012/03/02/gIQAeOqjmR_blog.html | newspaper = ] | date = March 2, 2012 | access-date = March 2, 2012}}<br />{{cite news | last = Goldenberg | first = Suzanne | title = Virginia court rejects sceptic's bid for climate science emails : Environment | url = https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/02/virginia-court-sceptic-access-climate-emails | newspaper = The Guardian | date = March 2, 2012 | access-date = March 2, 2012}}</ref> | |||
In October 2010, Mann wrote an op-ed in '']'' in which he described several past, present and projected attacks on climate science and scientists by politicians, drawing a link between them and "the pseudo-science that questioned the link between smoking cigarettes and lung cancer, and the false claims questioning the science of acid rain and the hole in the ozone layer." Saying they were "not good-faith questioning of scientific research anti-science", he called for all his fellow scientists to stand against the attacks.<ref name="washingtonpost_oped">{{cite news | first = Michael | last = Mann | newspaper =The Washington Post | date = October 8, 2010 | url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/07/AR2010100705484.html | title = Get the anti-science bent out of politics }}</ref> | |||
Mann was a supporter of Democratic candidate ]'s ] for ]; in that election, Cuccinelli was the Republican candidate. On the campaign trail, Mann promoted the role of scientific research and technology in job creation<ref name="Mann McA nbc29">{{Cite web | last = Sykes | first = Ed | title = McAuliffe, Mann Encourage Science & Technology Innovation | url = http://www.nbc29.com/story/22732611/mcauliffe-mann-encourage-science-technology-innovation | publisher = NBC29 WVIR Charlottesville, VA News, Sports and Weather | date = July 1, 2013 | access-date = July 5, 2013 }}</ref> and highlighted the costs of the Cuccinelli's Civil Investigative Demand case, and the threat it had presented to the scientific community.<ref>{{cite news | last = Hutchins | first = J. Reynolds | title = Ex-UVa professor Mann stumps with McAuliffe in Charlottesville | url = http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/local/ex-uva-professor-mann-stumps-with-mcauliffe-in-charlottesville/article_c05c90f8-e2b5-11e2-bcf5-001a4bcf6878.html | newspaper = ] | date = July 1, 2013 | access-date = July 5, 2013 }}</ref> | |||
=== Defamation lawsuits === | |||
; Lawsuit against Tim Ball, the Frontier Centre and interviewer | |||
In 2011, the ] ] interviewed ] and published his allegations about Mann and the ]. Mann promptly sued for defamation<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.courthousenews.com/2011/03/28/35274.htm | title=Prof Claims Climate-Denier Defamed Him |publisher=] | date=March 28, 2011 | access-date=June 12, 2019| author=Greer, Darryl}}</ref> against Ball, the Frontier Centre and its interviewer.<ref name="Notice of civil claim">{{cite court |litigants=Michael Mann v. Timothy Ball, Frontier Centre, John Doe |vol=VLC-SS-111913 |court=BCSC |date=2011 |url=http://blogs2.law.columbia.edu/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/non-us-case-documents/2011/20110325_Court-No.-VLC-S-S-111913_complaint.pdf}}</ref> In June 2019, the Frontier Centre apologized for publishing, on its website and in letters, "untrue and disparaging accusations which impugned the character of Dr. Mann". It said that Mann had "graciously accepted our apology and retraction".<ref name="Frontier Centre For Public Policy 2019">{{cite web | title=Retraction and Apology to Michael Mann | publisher=Frontier Centre For Public Policy | date=June 7, 2019 | url=https://fcpp.org/retraction-and-apology-to-michael-mann/ | access-date=June 12, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190609170116/https://fcpp.org/retraction-and-apology-to-michael-mann/|archive-date=June 9, 2019}}</ref> This did not settle Mann's claims against Ball, who remained a defendant.<ref name="McIntosh 2019">{{cite web | last= McIntosh | first= Emma | title=A Scientist Took Climate Change Deniers to Court and Wrested an Apology From Them | website=Mother Jones | date=June 16, 2019 | url=https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/06/a-scientist-took-climate-change-deniers-to-court-and-wrested-an-apology-from-them/ | access-date=June 16, 2019}} (story originally published by the '']'')</ref> On March 21, 2019, Ball applied to the court to dismiss the action for delay; this request was granted at a hearing on August 22, 2019, and court costs were awarded to Ball. The actual defamation claims were not judged, but instead, the case was dismissed due to delay, for which Mann and his legal team were held responsible.<ref name="BC Court Decision to Dismiss Mann v Ball">{{cite court |litigants=Michael Mann v. Timothy Ball |vol=1580 |reporter= |opinion= |pinpoint= |court=BCSC |date=2019 |url=https://www.bccourts.ca/jdb-txt/sc/19/15/2019BCSC1580.htm |quote=This is a relatively straightforward defamation action and should have been resolved long before now. That it has not been resolved is because the plaintiff has not given it the priority that he should have. In the circumstances, justice requires that the action be dismissed and, accordingly, I do hereby dismiss the action for delay.}}</ref> | |||
; Lawsuit against ''National Review'', the CEI, Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg | |||
As attacks on the work and reputation of climatologists continued, Mann discussed with colleagues the need for a strong response when they were slandered or libeled. In July 2012,<ref name="mag.newsweek.com" /> ] (CEI) blogger Rand Simberg accused Mann of "deception" and "engaging in data manipulation" and alleged that the Penn State investigation that had cleared Mann was a "cover-up and whitewash" comparable to the recent ], "except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data". The CEI blog editor then removed the sentence as "inappropriate", but a '']'' blog post by ] cited it and alleged that Mann's hockey stick graph was "fraudulent".<ref name="Timmer Oct12">{{cite web | last = Timmer | first = John | title = Climate scientist gets compared to Jerry Sandusky, files libel suit | url = https://arstechnica.com/science/2012/10/climate-scientist-gets-compared-to-jerry-sandusky-files-libel-suit/ | website = Ars Technica | date = October 26, 2012 | access-date = February 26, 2014 }}</ref><ref name="www.pennlive Jan 14">{{cite news | last = Orso | first = Anna | title = Michael Mann: The Penn State professor who went from stormless scientist to climate crusader : PennLive.com | url = http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/01/michael_mann_the_penn_state_pr.html | newspaper = ] | date = January 31, 2014 | access-date = February 25, 2014 }}</ref> | |||
Mann asked CEI and ''National Review'' to remove the allegations and apologize, or he would take action.<ref name="mag.newsweek.com">{{cite magazine | last = Eichenwald | first = Kurt | title = A Change in the Legal Climate | url = http://mag.newsweek.com/2014/01/31/change-legal-climate.html | magazine = Newsweek | date = January 30, 2014 | access-date = February 25, 2014 }}</ref> The CEI published further insults, and ''National Review'' editor ] responded in an article headed "Get Lost" with a declaration that, should Mann sue, the discovery process would be used to reveal and publish Mann's emails. Mann's lawyer filed the ] lawsuit with the ] in October 2012.<ref name="Timmer Oct12" /><ref name="DC suit" /> Defendants were the National Review, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-climate-change-for-lawsuits-11569279287|title=Opinion {{!}} A Climate Change for Lawsuits|last=McGurn|first=William|work=] |date=September 23, 2019|access-date=October 2, 2019}}</ref><ref name="DC suit">{{cite web |url=https://legaltimes.typepad.com/files/michael-mann-complaint.pdf |title=Michael E. Mann Ph.D. v. National Review Inc. and Competitive Enterprise Institute and Rand Stimberg and Mark Steyn: Complaint |website=legaltimes.typepad.com |publisher=Superior Court of the District of Columbia |date=October 22, 2012}}</ref> | |||
Before the case could go to discovery, CEI and ''National Review'' filed a court motion to dismiss it under ] legislation, with the claim that they had merely been using exaggerated language which was acceptable against a public figure. In July 2013, the judge ruled against this motion,<ref name="Timmer July 13">{{cite web | last = Timmer | first = John | title = 'Hockey stick graph' climate researcher's defamation suit to go forward | url = https://arstechnica.com/science/2013/07/hockey-stick-graph-climate-researchers-defamation-suit-to-go-forward/ | website = Ars Technica | date = July 22, 2013 | access-date = February 26, 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/07/michael-mann-defamation-national-review-cei | title=Climate Scientist Prevails in First Round of Defamation Suit Against Conservative Bloggers | work=] | date=July 24, 2013 | access-date=February 22, 2014 | last=Sheppard | first = Kate}}</ref> and when the defendants took this to appeal a new judge also denied their motion to dismiss, in January 2014. ''National Review'' changed its lawyers, and Steyn decided to represent himself in court.<ref name="mag.newsweek.com" /><ref name="arstechnica 26 Jan 14">{{cite web | last = Timmer | first = John | title = Climate scientist's defamation suit allowed to go forward | url = https://arstechnica.com/science/2014/01/climate-scientists-defamation-suit-allowed-to-go-forward/ | website = Ars Technica | date = January 26, 2014 | access-date = March 28, 2014 }}</ref> Journalist Seth Shulman, at the ], welcomed the judge's statement that accusations of fraud "go to the heart of scientific integrity. They can be proven true or false. If false, they are defamatory. If made with actual malice, they are actionable."<ref name="urlWhy a Climate Scientists Libel Case Matters | Michael Manns Libel Suit Progresses in Court">{{cite web |url=http://www.livescience.com/43332-why-libel-matters-to-climate-science.html |title=Why a Climate Scientist's Libel Case Matters | Michael Mann's Libel Suit Progresses in Court |author= Seth Shulman|date= February 12, 2014|publisher= ] |access-date=December 31, 2014}}</ref> | |||
The defendants again appealed the decision. In August 2014, the ] with 26 other organizations filed an ] in the ], arguing that the comments at issue were constitutionally protected under the ] as opinion.<ref name="RCFP">{{cite web | url = http://www.rcfp.org/browse-media-law-resources/briefs-comments/competitive-enterprise-institute-and-national-review-v-ma | title = Competitive Enterprise Institute and National Review v. Mann | date = August 11, 2014 | publisher = ] | access-date = December 31, 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Chakraborty |first=Barnini |url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/groups-rally-around-think-tank-publication-being-sued-for-global-warming-views/ |title=Groups rally around think tank, publication being sued for global warming views |date=August 14, 2014 |website=FoxNews.com |publisher=Fox News |access-date=December 31, 2014}} has been published by the RCFP.</ref> Steyn chose to be represented by attorney Daniel J. Kornstein.<ref>{{cite web |last=Kornstein |first=Daniel J. |url=http://kvwp.net/bio/kornstein2.htm |title=Representative Cases |website=kvwp.net |publisher=Kornstein Veisz Wexle, & Pollard LLP. |access-date=December 31, 2014}} Third in the list in the notice, ''Mann v. National Review, et al.'', (Super. Ct. D.C. 2014). "Represent political and cultural commentator Mark Steyn as defendant in libel suit brought by climate change scientist."</ref> On December 22, 2016, the D.C. appeals court ruled that Mann's case against Simberg and Steyn could go ahead. A "reasonable jury" could find against the defendants, and though the context should be considered, "if the statements assert or imply false facts that defame the individual, they do not find shelter under the First Amendment simply because they are embedded in a larger policy debate".<ref>{{cite web | title=Court: Climate scientist can sue conservative writers over alleged defamation | website=The Hill | date=December 22, 2016 | url=https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/311495-court-climate-scientist-can-sue-conservative-writers-over-alleged/ | access-date=December 23, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | title=District of Columbia Court of Appeals: No. 14-CV-101 Competitive Enterprise Institute and Rand Simburg v. Michael E. Mann, No. 14-CV-126 National Review, Inc. v. Michael E. Mann |website=dccourts.gov | publisher=District of Columbia Courts | date=December 22, 2016 | url=http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/documents/14-CV-101_14-CV-126.pdf | access-date=August 21, 2017 | url-status=dead | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170713061721/http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/documents/14-CV-101_14-CV-126.pdf | archive-date=July 13, 2017 }}</ref> A counterclaim Steyn filed through his attorneys on March 17, 2014, was dismissed with prejudice by the D.C. court on August 29, 2019, leaving Steyn to pay litigation costs.<ref>{{cite web | title=Decisions | website=williamslopatto.com |publisher=Williams Lopatto PLLC | date=August 29, 2019 | url=http://www.williamslopatto.com/decisions1.html | access-date=September 25, 2019}} – </ref> | |||
The defendants filed for '']'' with the ] in the hope it would hear their appeal. In November 2019, it denied the petition without comment. In a dissenting opinion, justice ] had favored hearing the case on the basis that, even though the defendants might yet prevail in the case, or the outcome itself come before the Court for review, the expense of litigating the case this far might itself ].<ref>{{cite news|last=Cole|first=Devan|title=Supreme Court won't throw out climate scientist's defamation suit against National Review|url=https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/25/politics/supreme-court-climate-scientist-michael-mann-national-review/index.html |website=cnn.com |publisher=]|date=November 25, 2019|access-date=November 26, 2019}}</ref> | |||
On March 19, 2021, the DC Superior Court ruled that "Steyn’s actual malice cannot be imputed" to ''National Review'', when the post was not reviewed by them before publication and was posted by someone who was not their employee. It therefore granted ''National Review'' summary judgment dismissing Mann's case against the publishers.<ref>NR Staff (March 19, 2021). ''National Review''. Retrieved March 23, 2021.</ref><ref>Superior Court of the District of Columbia (March 19, 2021). Retrieved March 23, 2021.</ref> | |||
The lawsuit against writers Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg, filed in 2012, went to trial on January 18, 2024.<ref name=Guardian_20240117>{{cite news |last1=Noor |first1=Dharna |title=US climate scientist's defamation case over online attacks finally comes to trial |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/17/michael-mann-climate-scientist-defamation-lawsuit |newspaper=The Guardian |date=17 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240119092544/https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/17/michael-mann-climate-scientist-defamation-lawsuit |archive-date=19 January 2024 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=DeSmog |date=2024-01-19 |title=After 12 Years, Climate Scientist's Lawsuit Against Alleged Defamers Begins Trial |url=https://www.desmog.com/2024/01/19/michael-mann-mark-steyn-rand-simberg-climate-science-defamation-trial/ |access-date=2024-01-20 |website=DeSmog |language=en-US |quote=The two conservative commentators accused of defamation mounted separate defenses, and both continued to disparage Mann during the first day of this long-anticipated trial... Back in 2022, Williams said Mann received about $3.5 million in funding a year. Today, that number is at $500,000, which Williams claimed is a direct result of Steyn and Simberg’s attacks on Mann and his personal and professional reputation.}}</ref> On February 8, 2024 Michael Mann was awarded punitive damages of $1000 against Simberg and $1{{nbsp}}million against Steyn.<ref>{{cite news |last=Erdenesanaa |first=Delger |date=February 8, 2024 |title=Michael Mann, a Leading Climate Scientist, Wins His Defamation Suit |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/climate/michael-mann-defamation-lawsuit.html |access-date=February 10, 2024 |newspaper=New York Times|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240210052021/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/climate/michael-mann-defamation-lawsuit.html |archive-date=February 10, 2024 }}</ref> Mann commented "I hope this verdict sends a message that falsely attacking climate scientists is not ]".<ref name="guardian-2024"> | |||
{{cite news | |||
| author = Guardian staff and agencies | |||
| title = US climate scientist Michael Mann wins $1m in defamation lawsuit | |||
| date = 9 February 2024 | |||
| work = The Guardian | |||
| location = London, United Kingdom | |||
| url = https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/us-climate-scientist-michael-mann-wins-1m-in-defamation-lawsuit | |||
| access-date = 10 February 2024 | |||
}} | |||
</ref> | |||
==Awards and honors== | |||
Mann's dissertation was awarded the Phillip M. Orville Prize in 1997 as an "outstanding dissertation in the earth sciences" at Yale University. His co-authorship of a scientific paper published by '']'' won him an award from the ] (ISI) in 2002, and another co-authored paper published in the same year won the ]'s outstanding scientific publication award. In 2002 he was named by '']'' as one of fifty "leading visionaries in science and technology”. The ] awarded him the John Russell Mather Paper of the Year award in 2005 for a co-authored paper published in the ''Journal of Climate''. The ] awarded him its Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing in 2006 to recognize his contributions in reviewing manuscripts for its '']'' journal.<ref name=PSU>{{cite web | url = http://www.met.psu.edu/people/mem45 | work = PSU People | title = Michael E. Mann | publisher = Penn State Meteorology and Atmospheric Science }}</ref> | |||
The ] presented Mann, along with all other "scientists that had contributed substantially to the preparation of IPCC reports", with a personalized certificate "for contributing to the award of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 to the IPCC", celebrating the joint award of the ] to the IPCC and to ].<ref>The ] was awarded to the IPCC as an organization, and the prize was not an award to any individual involved with the IPCC.</ref><ref name=ipcccert>{{Cite web | title = IPCC Statement about the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize | url = http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/nobel/Nobel_statement_final.pdf | publisher = IPCC Press Office | date = October 29, 2012 | access-date = January 2, 2014 | quote = personalized certificates .... were sent to coordinating lead authors, lead authors, review editors, Bureau members, staff of the technical support units and staff of the secretariat from the IPCC's inception in 1988 until the award of the prize in 2007 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20150525014000/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/nobel/Nobel_statement_final.pdf | archive-date = May 25, 2015 | url-status = dead }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web | title = Letter from Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC | url = https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=441602745895933&set=a.221233134599563.54502.221222081267335&type=1&relevant_count=1 | publisher = Michael E. Mann, Timeline Photos: Facebook | date = October 30, 2012 | access-date = November 2, 2012}}, retrieved December 12, 2012.<br />{{Cite web | last = Mann | first = Michael E. | title = Timeline Photos: Facebook | url = https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=438157782907096&set=a.221233134599563.54502.221222081267335&type=1&relevant_count=1 | publisher = facebook | date = October 25, 2012 | access-date = October 28, 2012|ref=none}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web | last1 = Bralower | first1 = Timothy | last2 = Rosenhoover | first2 = Christie| title =Nobel Prize Comes to Geosciences | url = http://www.geosc.psu.edu/sites/default/files/Newsletter_2007.pdf | publisher = ] | year = 2007 | access-date = October 28, 2012}}</ref> | |||
In 2012, he was elected a Fellow of the ]<ref name="AGU Fellow"/> and awarded the ] of the ] for "his significant contributions to understanding decadal-centennial scale climate change over the last two millennia and for pioneering techniques to synthesize patterns and northern hemispheric time series of past climate using proxy data reconstructions."<ref name="EGU hans-oeschger" /><ref name=PSU/> | |||
Following election by the ] he became a new Fellow of the society in 2013.<ref name="www.ametsoc.org">{{Cite web | title = Dr. Michael Mann named 2013 AMS Fellow – Penn State Meteorology and Atmospheric Science | url = http://ploneprod.met.psu.edu/news-events/news/dr.-michael-mann-named-ams-fellow-for-2013 | publisher = Penn State University | date = October 16, 2012 | access-date = November 4, 2012}}<br />{{Cite web | title = 2013 AMS Honorary Members, Awards, Lecturers and Fellows | url = http://ametsoc.org/awards/2013awardrecipients.pdf | publisher = ] | year =2012 | access-date = October 28, 2012}}</ref> In January 2013 he was designated with the status of ] in Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences.<ref>{{Cite web | title = Chen and Mann named distinguished professor in EMS | url = http://live.psu.edu/story/63610 | publisher = Penn State Live | date = January 24, 2013 | access-date = January 25, 2013 | url-status = dead | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130127155042/http://live.psu.edu/story/63610 | archive-date = January 27, 2013 }}</ref> | |||
In September 2013, Mann was named by ] in its third annual list of the "50 Most Influential" people, included in a group of "thinkers" with reference to his work with other scientists on the hockey stick graph, his responses on the ] blog "to ]s", and his book publications.<ref name="www.bloomberg.com">{{Cite news | last = Dieterich | first = Robert S. | title = Most Influential 50's New Names Show Shakeup in Finance | newspaper = Bloomberg.com | url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-03/most-influential-50-s-new-names-show-shakeup-bloomberg-markets.html | publisher = ] | date = September 3, 2013 | access-date = September 19, 2013 }}</ref><ref name="news.psu.edu">{{Cite web | title = Bloomberg Markets names Michael Mann to '50 Most Influential' list | url = http://news.psu.edu/story/287752/2013/09/16/bloomberg-markets-names-michael-mann-50-most-influential-list | publisher =Penn State University | date = September 16, 2013 | access-date = September 19, 2013 }}</ref> Later that month, he received the ]'s National Conservation Achievement Award for Science.<ref name="NWF">{{Cite web | last= Grant | first= Miles | title = BNWF to Honor Michael Mann with Conservation Achievement Award | url = https://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/News-by-Topic/General-NWF/2013/09-23-13-NWF-to-Honor-Michael-Mann-with-Conservation-Achievement-Award.aspx | publisher =] | date = September 23, 2013 | access-date = September 30, 2013 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web | last= Messer |first= A'ndrea Elyse | title = Mann receives Conservation Achievement Award | url = http://news.psu.edu/story/288766/2013/09/23/research/mann-receives-conservation-achievement-award |website=news.psu.edu |publisher =Penn State University | date = September 23, 2013 | access-date = September 30, 2013 }}</ref> | |||
On April 28, 2014, the ] announced that its first annual Friend of the Planet award had been presented to Mann and ].<ref name="ncse.com">{{Cite web | title = Friend of Darwin and Friend of the Planet awards for 2014 | url = http://ncse.com/news/2014/04/friend-darwin-friend-planet-awards-2014-0015556 |website=ncse.com | publisher = ] | date = April 28, 2014 | access-date = April 28, 2014 }}</ref> In the same year, Mann was named as a Highly Cited Researcher by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI). In 2015 he was elected Fellow of the ], and in 2016 he was elected Vice Chair of the Topical Group on Physics of Climate (GPC) at the ] (APS).<ref name=PSU /> | |||
On June 19, 2017, ] at the ] said that he would be honored with the 7th annual Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Science Communication.<ref name="climateone.org">{{Cite web | title = 2017 Stephen H. Schneider Award Bestowed Upon Dr. Michael Mann | url = http://climateone.org/2017-stephen-h-schneider-award-bestowed-upon-dr-michael-mann | publisher = ] | date = June 19, 2017 | access-date = June 26, 2017 }}</ref> | |||
He received the James H. Shea Award from the ] for his "exceptional contribution in writing or editing Earth science materials for the general public or teachers of Earth science."<ref>{{cite web|title=2017 Awardee – Michael E. Mann, Pennsylvania State University|url=https://nagt.org/nagt/awards/shea/2017_michael.html|website=The National Association of Geoscience Teachers|access-date=January 17, 2018}}</ref> | |||
On February 8, 2018, the ] announced that Mann had been elected as a 2017 Fellow of its ].<ref name="csifellow">{{cite web|title=Center for Inquiry News: Cause & Effect: The CFI Newsletter – No. 99|url=http://www.centerforinquiry.net/news/cause_effect_99/|website=www.centerforinquiry.net |access-date=February 8, 2018 |language=en |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180208134003/http://www.centerforinquiry.net/news/cause_effect_99/|archive-date=February 8, 2018 |url-status=dead}}</ref> | |||
On February 14, 2018, the ] announced that Mann was chosen to receive the 2018 Public Engagement with Science award.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.aaas.org/news/michael-e-mann-receives-aaas-public-engagement-science-award |title=Michael E. Man Receives Public Engagement with Science award |website=aaas.org}}</ref> | |||
On September 4, 2018, the ] announced Mann as the 2018 recipient of its Climate Communication Prize.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://news.psu.edu/story/534583/2018/09/04/research/mann-receives-2018-agu-climate-communication-prize |title=Mann Receives 2018 AGU Climate Communication Prize |website=news.psu.edu |publisher=Penn State University}}</ref> | |||
On February 12, 2019, Mann and Warren Washington were named to receive the 2019 ].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://news.psu.edu/story/558486/2019/02/12/research/michael-mann-awarded-2019-tyler-prize-environmental-achievement |title=Michael Mann Awarded Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement |website=news.psu.edu |publisher=Penn State University}}</ref> | |||
In April 2020, he was elected member of the ].<ref name="NAS" /> Along with Antonella Santuccione Chadha, he also received the World Sustainability Award from the ] Sustainability Foundation.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Messer|first=A'ndrea Elyse|date=September 14, 2020|title=Michael Mann receives World Sustainability Award|url=https://news.psu.edu/story/631498/2020/09/14/research/michael-mann-receives-world-sustainability-award|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200915215426/https://news.psu.edu/story/631498/2020/09/14/research/michael-mann-receives-world-sustainability-award|archive-date=September 15, 2020|access-date=September 15, 2020|website=Penn State News}}</ref> | |||
In 2022, the American Physical Society recognized Mann with the ] "for distinguished contributions to the public's understanding of climate science controversies, and to how our individual and collective actions can mitigate climate change."<ref>{{cite web | website=Pennsylvania State University | date=October 15, 2021 | last=Craig | first=Patricia | title=Mann to receive Leo Szilard Lectureship Award from American Physical Society | url=https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/mann-receive-leo-szilard-lectureship-award-american-physical-society/}}</ref> | |||
In 2023 the ] gave Mann their 2023 Humanist of the Year award.<ref>{{cite web |title=Annual Humanist Awardees |url=https://americanhumanist.org/awardees/ |website=American Humanist |publisher=American Humanist Association |access-date=20 April 2023}}</ref> | |||
In 2024, the British ] named Mann as a Foreign Member. <ref>{{cite web |title=Outstanding scientists elected as Fellows of the Royal Society |url=https://royalsociety.org/news/2024/05/new-fellows-2024/ |access-date=16 May 2024}}</ref> | |||
==Public outreach== | |||
] 2016]] | |||
Mann, along with ], ], and others, co-founded the ] website, launched in December 2004. The website's purpose is to provide a site for commentaries by working climate scientists, "for interested public and journalists".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/about/ |title=RealClimate: About |date=December 1, 2004 |publisher=] |access-date=September 13, 2010}}<br />{{Cite journal | title = Welcome climate bloggers | journal = Nature | volume = 432 | page = 933| year = 2004 | doi = 10.1038/432933a| pmid=15616516|bibcode = 2004Natur.432Q.933.| issue=7020| doi-access = free}}</ref> | |||
After repeated attacks against his and his colleagues' academic work and being "hounded by elected officials, threatened with violence, and more", Mann decided to "enter the fray" and "speak out about the very real implications of our research."<ref>{{cite news |last1=Mann|first1=Michael E.|title=If You See Something, Say Something|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/19/opinion/sunday/if-you-see-something-say-something.html|access-date=January 15, 2017|newspaper=The New York Times|date=January 17, 2014}}</ref> Mann has engaged with the public through film, television, radio, the press, and talks.<ref name=cv/> '']'' reported in 2014, "The professor operates active Twitter and Facebook accounts. In several weeks, he'll take part in an "Ask Me Anything" session on Reddit. For him, it's about engaging with the community."<ref>{{cite web |last=Orso |first=Anna |url=http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/01/michael_mann_the_penn_state_pr.html |title=Michael Mann: The Penn State professor who went from stormless scientist to climate crusader |work=The Patriot-News |date=January 30, 2014 |access-date=February 9, 2014}}</ref> | |||
Mann serves on the advisory board of ], an American grassroots advocacy group calling for a national economic mobilization against climate change on the scale of the ], with the goal of 100% clean energy and ] greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.<ref>{{cite web|title=Advisory Board|url=http://www.theclimatemobilization.org/advisory_board|website=The Climate Mobilization|access-date=August 30, 2016|archive-date=September 12, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160912115502/http://www.theclimatemobilization.org/advisory_board|url-status=dead}}</ref> Mann has often called for WWII-scale climate mobilization as a means of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Gathering Storm – Michael Mann & Daniel M. Kammen | |||
|url=http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2014/09/19/the-gathering-storm-michael-mann-daniel-m-kammen/|website=Berkeley Blog|date=September 19, 2014|access-date=September 19, 2014}}</ref> In June 2015, Mann criticized the G7 nations' goal of full decarbonization by 2100 as not very meaningful considering greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced dramatically within the next decade, well ahead of the G7's timeline. "In my view, the science makes clear that 2050 or 2100 is way too far down the road," he told ]. We will need near-term limits if we are going to avoid dangerous warming of the planet."<ref>{{cite web|title=G7 Carbon Goal May Come Too Late, Scientists Say|url=http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-goal-may-come-too-late-19086|website=Climate Central|access-date=June 9, 2015}}</ref> | |||
Since 2013, Mann has been listed on the Advisory Council of the ].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ncse.com/about/advisory-council |title=Advisory Council |website=ncse.com |publisher=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130810112828/https://ncse.com/about/advisory-council |archive-date=August 10, 2013 |access-date=October 30, 2018}}</ref> | |||
In July 2018, Mann commented on recent ] events striking across Europe, from the ] to ], and on the other side of the world, from ] to ]. He said, “This is the face of climate change", “We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change". “The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle", “We are seeing them play out in real-time and what is happening this summer is a perfect example of that". “We are seeing our predictions come true", “As a scientist that is reassuring, but as a citizen of planet Earth, it is very distressing to see that as it means we have not taken the necessary action".<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/27/extreme-global-weather-climate-change-michael-mann |title=Extreme global weather is 'the face of climate change' says leading scientist |website=] |date=July 27, 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180729014417/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/27/extreme-global-weather-climate-change-michael-mann |archive-date=July 29, 2018 |access-date=October 31, 2018}}</ref> | |||
==Publications== | |||
Mann has been organizing committee chair for the ] 'Frontiers of Science' and has served as a committee member or advisor for other National Academy of Sciences panels. He served as editor for the '']'' and has been a member of numerous international and U.S. scientific advisory panels and steering groups. By 2010 he was the lead author or co-author of over 90 scientific publications, the majority of which had appeared in leading peer-reviewed scientific journals:<ref name="PSU Report" /> as of 2016, his biographical sketch stated that he was author of more than 200 peer-reviewed and edited publications.<ref name="Biographical Sketch 2016">{{cite web | title=Michael E. Mann: Biographical Sketch | website=Penn State Meteo Computing System Home Page |publisher=Pennsylvania State University| url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/about/index.php | access-date=September 1, 2016}}</ref> Between 1999 and 2010 he served as principal or co-principal investigator on five research projects funded by the ] (NOAA) and four more funded by the ] (NSF). He was also co-investigator on other projects funded by the NOAA, NSF, ], ], and the ].<ref name="PSU Report" /> | |||
===Selected publications=== | |||
{{Scholia}} | |||
{{refbegin}} | |||
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* {{cite journal |last1=Mann |first1=M.E. |author2=Lees J.M. |title=Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series |journal=Climatic Change |volume=33 |issue=3 |pages=409–445 |year=1996 |url=http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/RedNoise-MTM/Rednoise_ClmChng96.ps |format=PS |doi=10.1007/BF00142586 |bibcode=1996ClCh...33..409M |s2cid=153423451 |access-date=January 2, 2010 |archive-date=August 17, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110817235340/http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/RedNoise-MTM/Rednoise_ClmChng96.ps |url-status=dead }} | |||
* {{cite journal |author1=Mann M.E. |author-mask=1 |author2=Bradley R.S. |author3=Hughes M.K. |title=Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries |journal=Nature |volume=392 |issue=6678 |pages=779–787 |year=1998 |url=http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/DaveLegates03-d/Mannetal98Nature.pdf |doi=10.1038/33859 |bibcode=1998Natur.392..779M |s2cid=129871008 }} | |||
* {{cite journal |last1=Mann |first1=M.E. |author-mask=1 |last2=Bradley |first2=R.S. |last3=Hughes |first3=M.K. |title=Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=26 |issue=6 |pages=759–762 |year=1999 |doi=10.1029/1999GL900070 |bibcode=1999GeoRL..26..759M |doi-access=free }} | |||
* {{Cite book | editor1-last = Diaz | editor1-first = Henry F. | editor2-last = Markgraf | editor2-first = Vera | last1 = Mann | first1 = M. E. | author-mask = 1 | last2 = Bradley | first2 = R. S. | last3 = Hughes | first3 = M. K. | title = El Niño and the southern oscillation : multiscale variability and global and regional impact | year = 2000 | publisher = Cambridge University Press | location = Cambridge & New York | isbn = 978-0-521-62138-0 | chapter = Long-term variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections | chapter-url = http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/chapter-diaz.pdf | pages = 357–413 }} | |||
* {{cite journal |author=Shindell D.T. |author2=Schmidt G.A. |author3=Mann M.E. |author4=Rind D. |author5=Waple A. |author-mask3=1 |title=Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum |journal=Science |volume=294 |issue=5549 |pages=2149–2152 |year=2001 |url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/Shindelletal01.pdf |doi=10.1126/science.1064363 |pmid=11739952 |bibcode=2001Sci...294.2149S |hdl=2060/20020049982 |s2cid=1545207 |hdl-access=free }} | |||
* {{cite journal |last1=Mann |first1=M.E. |author-mask=1 |last2=Jones |first2=P.D. |title=Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=30 |issue=15 |pages=1820–1823 |year=2003 |url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/mannjones03.pdf |doi=10.1029/2003GL017814 |bibcode=2003GeoRL..30.1820M |citeseerx=10.1.1.408.3837 |s2cid=5942198 }} | |||
* {{cite journal |author=Mann M.E. |author-mask=1 |title=Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference |journal=Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. |volume=106 |pages=4065–4066 |year=2009 |doi=10.1073/pnas.0901303106 |pmid=19276105 |issue=11 |pmc=2657409 |bibcode = 2009PNAS..106.4065M |doi-access=free }} | |||
* {{cite journal | last=Mann | first=M. E. |author-mask=1 | title=The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back | journal=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | publisher=Sage | volume=71 | issue=1 | year=2015 | pages=33–45 | doi=10.1177/0096340214563674 | bibcode=2015BuAtS..71a..33M | s2cid=145469167 }} | |||
* {{cite journal |last1=Mann |first1=Michael E. |author-mask=1 |last2=Rahmstorf|first2=Stefan|title=Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events |journal=] |publisher=] |volume=7 |page= 45242|date=March 27, 2017 |doi=10.1038/srep45242 |pmid=28345645 |pmc=5366916 |bibcode=2017NatSR...745242M}} | |||
===Books=== | |||
<!-- The strange display is due to the parameter author-mask (e.g. |author-mask=1 or |author-mask3=1) aimed at hiding the name of Michael Mann in the list of selected publications. See Template:Cite book for the syntax. Is it pertinent to do that here? The main disadvantage is a poor display of the selected publications list. Why not to remove this parameter? --> | |||
* {{cite book |last2=Kump |first2=Lee R. |last1=Mann |first1=Michael |title=Dire predictions: understanding global warming |url=https://archive.org/details/direpredictionsu00mann_0 |url-access=registration |publisher=] |year=2008 |isbn=978-0-7566-3995-2 }} | |||
* {{Cite book |last1=Mann |first1=Michael |author-mask=1 |title=The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines |publisher=] |year=2012 |isbn=978-0-231-15254-9 |title-link=The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines|ref=none }} | |||
* {{cite book |last2=Kump |first2=Lee R. |last1=Mann |first1=Michael |author-mask=1 |title=Dire predictions: understanding global warming |edition=2nd |publisher=DK |year=2015 |isbn=978-1-4654-3364-0}} | |||
** by permission of ] & ] | |||
* {{cite book |last2=Toles |first2=Tom | last1=Mann | first1=Michael |author-mask=1 | title=The Madhouse Effect : How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy | publisher=Columbia University Press | location=New York | year=2016 | isbn=978-0-231-17786-3 }}<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1109/MTS.2019.2934588 |title=Climate Madhouse (Review of "The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy") [Book Reviews] |date=2019 |last1=Wunsch |first1=A. David |journal=IEEE Technology and Society Magazine |volume=38 |issue=3 |pages=12–20 |s2cid=203994009 |doi-access=free }}</ref> ({{cite web | title=A preview of The Madhouse Effect | website=] | url=https://ncse.com/news/2016/08/preview-madhouse-effect-0018345 | access-date=September 1, 2016 }}) | |||
* {{cite book |last2=Herbert |first2=Megan |last1=Mann |first1=Michael |author-mask=1 |title=The Tantrum That Saved The World |publisher=World Saving Books |url=https://www.worldsavingbooks.com/ |year=2018 |isbn=978-90-828110-0-1 }} | |||
* {{Cite book |last1=Mann |first1=Michael |author-mask=1 |title= ] |publisher=] |year=2021 |isbn=978-1-541-75822-3 }} | |||
* — (2023). ''Our Fragile Moment: How Lessons from Earth's Past Can Help Us Survive the Climate Crisis''. PublicAffairs. {{ISBN|978-1541702899}}. | |||
===Selected editorials and opinion articles=== | |||
<!-- Listed, newest first, from those listed in Prof. Mann's PSU CV --> | |||
* by Michael Mann, '']'', January 31, 2014. | |||
*, '']'', January 17, 2014. | |||
* {{cite magazine | title=The Single Shining Hope to Stop Climate Change | magazine=] | date=April 8, 2017 | url=https://time.com/4731632/climate-change-2020-trump/ | access-date=April 25, 2017 }} | |||
{{refend}} | |||
==See also== | |||
{{Portal|Earth sciences|Global warming}} | |||
* ] | |||
{{Clear}} | |||
==References== | |||
{{reflist|30em|refs= | |||
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order refences by Author, Publication date, Publisher | |||
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<ref name="AGU Fellow">{{cite web| title = Fellows Search Results| url = http://sites.agu.org/honors/fellows/?fellow_name=Michael+Mann&fellow_year=&fellow_section=0&fellow_institution=&fellow_country=0&run_search=1&x=53&y=20| publisher = American Geophysical Union| access-date = October 25, 2012}}</ref> | |||
<ref name=cv>{{cite web | last = Mann | first = Michael E. | url = https://earth.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/2022-09/M.%20Mann%20CV%202022.pdf | title = Curriculum Vitae | publisher = University of Pennsylvania Department of Earth and Environmental Science | date = 2022 | access-date = September 3, 2024 }}</ref> | |||
<ref name=Warner_2010-03-28_TMC>{{cite news|last=Warner |first=Frank |title=Penn State climate professor: 'I'm a skeptic' |url=http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-global-warming-penn-state-0328,0,777593,print.story |date=January 3, 2010 |access-date=July 6, 2010 |work=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100331134206/http://articles.mcall.com/2010-03-28/news/all-a1_5warming.7216773mar28_1_mails-e-mails-global-warming |archive-date=March 31, 2010 |quote=And in a wide-ranging interview, Mann says that not all global warming science is settled. It's not yet certain, for example, that the heat is reducing the world population of polar bears or that it increases the number of hurricanes, he said. |url-status=dead }}</ref> | |||
}} | |||
==Sources== | |||
* {{Cite book |last1=Mann |first1=Michael |title=The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines |publisher=] |year=2012 |isbn=978-0-231-15254-9 |title-link=The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines }} | |||
==External links== | ==External links== | ||
{{Commons category}} | |||
*; ; | |||
{{Wikiquote}} | |||
* Climate science ] to which Mann is a contributor. | |||
*, Pennsylvania State University | |||
* The weblog of Stephen McIntyre who has published most of the key criticisms of Mann's 1998 and 1999 multiproxy studies | |||
* {{IMDb name|3134128}} | |||
* | |||
* {{Muckrack}} | |||
*, Natuurwetenschap & Techniek article | |||
* {{cite web|title=EPA Climate Lecture with Professor Michael Mann (on 15th November 2021)|date=November 18, 2021|publisher=EPA Ireland|website=YouTube|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6VTnnpUFx8&t=1740}} | |||
* Using Real Player. | |||
* {{cite web|title=Michael E. Mann: The New Climate War|publisher=UH (University of Hawaii) Better Tomorrow Speaker Series|website=YouTube|date=January 13, 2022|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC7Q3mKguMc}} | |||
* Using Real Player, and | |||
* | |||
{{Authority control}} | |||
*'']'', ] 2005, - interview | |||
* Environmental Science & Technology, 31 August 2005, | |||
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Latest revision as of 14:56, 13 December 2024
American physicist and climatologist
Michael E. Mann | |
---|---|
Mann in 2019 | |
Born | Michael Evan Mann 1965 (age 58–59) Amherst, Massachusetts, U.S. |
Education | University of California, Berkeley (BA) Yale University (MS, MPhil, PhD) |
Known for | Temperature record of the past 1000 years Hockey stick graph Lead author on the IPCC Third Assessment Report |
Awards | American Geophysical Union Fellow (2012) Hans Oeschger Medal (2012) AAAS Public Engagement with Science Award (AAAS) AGU Climate Communication Prize (2018) Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement (2019) Member of the National Academy of Sciences (2020) Foreign Member Royal Society (2024) |
Scientific career | |
Fields | Climatology |
Institutions | University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania State University, University of Virginia |
Website | michaelmann.net |
Michael Evan Mann (born 1965) is an American climatologist and geophysicist. He is the director of the Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change and to isolate climate signals from noisy data.
As lead author of a paper produced in 1998 with co-authors Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes, Mann used advanced statistical techniques to find regional variations in a hemispherical climate reconstruction covering the past 600 years. In 1999 the same team used these techniques to produce a reconstruction over the past 1,000 years (MBH99), which was dubbed the "hockey stick graph" because of its shape. He was one of eight lead authors of the "Observed Climate Variability and Change" chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Scientific Assessment Report published in 2001. A graph based on the MBH99 paper was highlighted in several parts of the report and was given wide publicity. The IPCC acknowledged that his work, along with that of the many other lead authors and review editors, contributed to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, which was won jointly by the IPCC and Al Gore.
Mann was organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences Frontiers of Science in 2003 and has received a number of honors and awards including selection by Scientific American as one of the fifty leading visionaries in science and technology in 2002. In 2012 he was inducted as a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and was awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union. In 2013, he was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and awarded the status of distinguished professor in Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. In 2017, he was elected a Fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.
Mann is author of more than 200 peer-reviewed and edited publications. He has also published six books: Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming (2008), The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars (2012), together with co-author Tom Toles, The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy (2016) with Megan Herbert, The Tantrum That Saved the World (2018), The New Climate War (2021), and Our Fragile Moment (2023). In 2012, the European Geosciences Union described his publication record as "outstanding for a scientist of his relatively young age". Mann is a co-founder and contributor to the climatology blog RealClimate.
Early life, undergraduate studies
Mann was born in 1965, and brought up in Amherst, Massachusetts, where his father was a professor of mathematics at the University of Massachusetts. He is of Jewish ancestry. At school he was interested in math, science, and computing. In August 1984 he went to the University of California, Berkeley, to major in physics with a second major in applied math. His second-year research in the theoretical behaviour of liquid crystals used the Monte Carlo method applying randomness in computer simulations. Late in 1987, he joined a research team under Didier de Fontaine which was using similar Monte Carlo methodology to investigate the superconducting properties of yttrium barium copper oxide, modelling transitions between ordered and disordered phases. He graduated with honors in 1989 with an A.B. in applied mathematics and physics.
Doctoral and postgraduate studies
Mann then attended Yale University, intending to obtain a PhD in physics, and received both an MS and an MPhil in physics in 1991. His interest was in theoretical condensed matter physics but he found himself being pushed towards detailed semiconductor work. He looked at course options with a wider topic area and was enthused by PhD adviser Barry Saltzman about climate modelling and research. To try this out he spent the summer of 1991 assisting a postdoctoral researcher in simulating the period of peak Cretaceous warmth when carbon dioxide levels were high, but fossils indicated most warming at the poles, with little warming in the tropics. Mann then joined the Yale Department of Geology and Geophysics, obtaining an MPhil in geology and geophysics in 1993. His research focused on natural variability and climate oscillations. He worked with the seismologist Jeffrey Park, and their joint research adapted a statistical method developed for identifying seismological oscillations to find various periodicities in the instrumental temperature record, the longest being about 60 to 80 years. The paper Mann and Park published in December 1994 came to conclusions similar to those from a study developed in parallel using different methodology and published in January of that year, which found what was later called the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
In 1994, Mann participated as a graduate student in the inaugural workshop of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Geophysical Statistics Project aimed at encouraging active collaboration between statisticians, climatologists and atmospheric scientists. Leading statisticians participated, including Grace Wahba and Arthur P. Dempster.
While still finishing his PhD research, Mann met UMass climate science professor Raymond S. Bradley and began research in collaboration with him and Park. Their research used paleoclimate proxy data from Bradley's previous work and methods Mann had developed with Park, to find oscillations in the longer proxy records. "Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries" was published by Nature in November 1995.
Another study by Mann and Park raised a minor technical issue with a climate model about human influence on climate change: this was published in 1996. In the context of the controversy over the IPCC Second Assessment Report the paper was praised by those opposed to action on climate change, and the conservative organization Accuracy in Media claimed that it had not been publicized due to media bias. Mann defended his PhD thesis on A study of ocean-atmosphere interaction and low-frequency variability of the climate system in the spring of 1996, and was awarded the Phillip M. Orville Prize for outstanding dissertation in the earth sciences in the following year. He was granted his PhD in geology and geophysics in 1998.
Postdoctoral research: the hockey stick graph
From 1996 to 1998, after defending his PhD thesis at Yale, Mann carried out paleoclimatology research at the University of Massachusetts Amherst funded by a United States Department of Energy postdoctoral fellowship. He collaborated with Raymond S. Bradley and Bradley's colleague Malcolm K. Hughes, a Professor of Dendrochronology at the University of Arizona, with the aim of developing and applying an improved statistical approach to climate proxy reconstructions. He taught a course in Data Analysis and Climate Change in 1997 and became a research assistant professor the following year.
The first truly quantitative reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperatures had been published in 1993 by Bradley and Phil Jones, but it and subsequent reconstructions compiled averages for decades, covering the whole hemisphere. Mann wanted temperatures of individual years showing differences between regions, to find spatial patterns showing natural oscillations and the effect of events such as volcanic eruptions. Sophisticated statistical methods had already been applied to dendroclimatology, but to get wider geographical coverage these tree ring records had to be related to sparser proxies such as ice cores, corals and lake sediments. To avoid giving too much weight to the more numerous tree data, Mann, Bradley and Hughes used the statistical procedure of principal component analysis to represent these larger datasets in terms of a small number of representative series and compare them to the sparser proxy records. The same procedure was also used to represent key information in the instrumental temperature record for comparison with the proxy series, enabling validation of the reconstruction. They chose the period 1902–1980 for calibration, leaving the previous 50 years of instrumental data for validation. This showed that the statistical reconstructions were only skillful (statistically meaningful) back to 1400.
Their study highlighted interesting findings, such as confirming anecdotal evidence that there had been a strong El Niño in 1791, and finding that in 1816 the "Year Without a Summer" in Eurasia and much of North America had been offset by warmer than usual temperatures in Labrador and the Middle East. It was also an advance on earlier reconstructions in that it went back further, showed individual years, and showed uncertainty with error bars. "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries" (MBH98) was published on April 23, 1998, in the journal Nature. In it, "Spatially resolved global reconstructions of annual surface temperature patterns" were related to "changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols" leading to the conclusion that "each of these factors has contributed to the climate variability of the past 400 years, with greenhouse gases emerging as the dominant forcing during the twentieth century. Northern Hemisphere mean annual temperatures for three of the past eight years are warmer than any other year since (at least) AD 1400. The last point received most media attention. Mann was surprised by the extent of coverage which may have been due to the chance release of the paper on Earth Day in an unusually warm year. In a CNN interview, John Roberts repeatedly asked him if it proved that humans were responsible for global warming, to which he would go no further than that it was "highly suggestive" of that inference.
In May 1998, Jones, Briffa and colleagues published a reconstruction going back a thousand years, but not specifically estimating uncertainties. As Bradley recalls, Mann's initial reaction to the paper was "Look at this. This is rubbish. You can't do this. There isn't enough information. There's too much uncertainty." Bradley suggested using the MBH98 methodology to go further back. Within a few weeks, Mann responded that to his surprise, "There is a certain amount of skill. We can actually say something, although there are large uncertainties." Mann carried out a series of statistical sensitivity tests on 24 long term datasets, in which he statistically "censored" each proxy in turn to see the effect its removal had on the result. He found that a dataset which would otherwise have been reliable diverged from 1800 until around 1900, suggesting that it had been affected for that time by the CO2 "fertilisation effect". Using this dataset corrected in comparisons with other tree series, their reconstruction passed the validation tests for the extended period, but they were cautious about the increased uncertainties involved.
The Mann, Bradley and Hughes reconstruction covering 1,000 years (MBH99) was published by Geophysical Research Letters in March 1999 with the cautious title Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Mann said that "As you go back farther in time, the data becomes sketchier. One can't quite pin things down as well, but, our results do reveal that significant changes have occurred, and temperatures in the latter 20th century have been exceptionally warm compared to the preceding 900 years. Though substantial uncertainties exist in the estimates, these are nonetheless startling revelations." When Mann gave a talk about the study to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, climatologist Jerry D. Mahlman nicknamed the graph the "hockey stick".
Career
University positions
In 1999, Mann secured a position as a tenure-track assistant professor in the department of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia. He left Virginia in 2005 to become an associate professor in the department of meteorology (with joint appointments in department of geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute) at Pennsylvania State University, where he was also appointed the director of its Earth System Science Center. He was promoted to full professor in 2009 and to "Distinguished Professor of Meteorology" in 2013. In fall 2022 Mann was appointed presidential distinguished professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science with a secondary appointment in the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Before the publication of MBH98, Mann had been nominated to be an author on the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Late in 1998 he heard that he had been selected as a lead author for the "observations" chapter of the Working Group I report. He was to work with the numerous contributing authors in preparing an assessment of the state of knowledge of the paleoclimate record, starting by soliciting input from the leading experts in that field.
Mann was one of eight lead authors of the "Observed Climate Variability and Change" chapter of the report, working under the two co-ordinating lead authors for the chapter. The report was published in 2001.
Research
Mann continued his interest in improving methodology to find patterns in high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions: he was the lead author with Bradley and Hughes on a study of long term variability in the El Niño southern oscillations and related teleconnections, published in 2000. His areas of research have included climate signal detection, attribution of climate change and coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling, developing and assessing methods of statistical and time series analysis and comparing the results of modelling against data.
The original MBH98 and MBH99 papers avoided undue representation of large numbers of tree ring proxies by using a principal component analysis step to summarise these proxy networks, but from 2001 Mann stopped using this method and introduced a multivariate Climate Field Reconstruction (CFR) technique using a regularized expectation–maximization (RegEM) method which did not require this PCA step. In May 2002 Mann and Scott Rutherford published a paper on testing methods of climate reconstruction which discussed this technique. By adding artificial noise to actual temperature records or to model simulations they produced synthetic datasets which they called "pseudo proxies". When the reconstruction procedure was used with these pseudoproxies, the result was then compared with the original record or simulation to see how closely it had been reconstructed.
In August 2003 Mann with Phil Jones published reconstructions using various high-resolution proxies including tree rings, ice cores and sediments. This study indicated that that Northern Hemisphere late 20th century warmth had no precedent for roughly 2,000 years, dwarfing Medieval warmth, but proxy data was still too sparse to evaluate the Southern Hemisphere.
More recently, Mann's areas of research have included hurricanes and climate change, and climate modelling. His work using comparisons with the results of climate models indicated that cooling from large volcanoes was not fully shown by tree ring reconstructions, and suggested that in extreme cases cooling caused by eruptions could result in trees showing no growth, and hence no tree ring for that year. The result would be that tree ring reconstructions could understate climate variability, and there has been scientific debate about the methodology and validity of these findings.
A paper published in April 2014 by Mann and co-authors set out a new method of defining the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in place of a problematic method based on detrending the climate signal. They found that in recent decades the AMO had been in a cooling phase, rather than a warming phase as researchers had thought. This cooling had contributed towards the recent Global warming hiatus in surface temperatures, and would change to enhanced surface warming in the next phase of the oscillation.
In 2018, Mann explained that the west Antarctic ice sheet may lose twice as much ice by the end of the century as previously thought, which also doubles the projected rise in sea level from three feet to more than six feet.
In 2020, Mann raised the hypothesis that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), hitherto regarded as internal oscillations of the climate system, are due to climatic noise and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols.
Controversy over hockey stick graph
Figures based on the northern hemisphere mean temperatures graph from MBH99 were prominently featured in the IPCC Third Assessment Report of 2001, and became the focus of controversy when some individuals and groups disputed the data and methodology of this reconstruction.
The 2006 North Report published by the United States National Academy of Sciences endorsed the MBH studies with a few reservations. The principal component analysis methodology had a small tendency to bias results so was not recommended, but it had little influence on the final reconstructions, and other methods produced similar results. Mann has said his findings have been "independently verified by independent teams using alternative methods and alternative data sources." More than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, support the broad consensus shown in the original hockey stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears.
CRU email controversy
In November 2009, hackers obtained a large number of emails exchanged among researchers at the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and with other scientists, including Mann. The release of their correspondence on the Internet sparked the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, commonly known as "Climategate", in which extracts from emails were publicized to raise accusations against the scientists. A series of investigations cleared the scientists of wrongdoing. Detailed analysis by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that the critics made unsupported accusations of falsification and manipulation or destruction of data and were commonly mistaken about the scientific issues.
Mann was specifically cleared by several inquiries. Pennsylvania State University (PSU) commissioned two reviews related to the emails and his research, which reported in February and July 2010. They cleared Mann of misconduct, stating there was no substance to the allegations, but criticized him for sharing unpublished manuscripts with third parties.
The EPA gave detailed consideration to petitions with allegations against Mann from lobbyists including the Southeastern Legal Foundation, Peabody Energy, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and the Ohio Coal Association: the EPA found their claims were not supported by the evidence.
At the request of Senator Jim Inhofe, who has called the science of man-made climate change a hoax, the Inspector General of the United States Department of Commerce investigated the emails in relation to NOAA, and concluded that there was no evidence of inappropriate manipulation of data. The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) of the National Science Foundation also carried out a detailed investigation, which it closed on August 15, 2011. It agreed with the conclusions of the university inquiries, and exonerated Mann of charges of scientific misconduct.
Attorney General of Virginia's investigative demand
Main article: Attorney General of Virginia's climate science investigationBased on the CRU email leak, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli initiated a Civil Investigative Demand against the University of Virginia to obtain documentation relating to Mann's work at the university. The demand sparked widespread academic condemnation as a "blatantly political" attempt to intimidate and silence Mann, and was denied in August 2010 by a judge for failure to state sufficient cause. Cuccinelli tried to re-open his case by issuing a revised subpoena, and appealed the case to the Virginia Supreme Court. The case was defended by the university, and the court ruled that Cuccinelli did not have the authority to make these demands. The decision, seen as supporting academic freedom, was welcomed by the Union of Concerned Scientists.
In October 2010, Mann wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post in which he described several past, present and projected attacks on climate science and scientists by politicians, drawing a link between them and "the pseudo-science that questioned the link between smoking cigarettes and lung cancer, and the false claims questioning the science of acid rain and the hole in the ozone layer." Saying they were "not good-faith questioning of scientific research anti-science", he called for all his fellow scientists to stand against the attacks.
Mann was a supporter of Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe's successful 2013 campaign for governor of Virginia; in that election, Cuccinelli was the Republican candidate. On the campaign trail, Mann promoted the role of scientific research and technology in job creation and highlighted the costs of the Cuccinelli's Civil Investigative Demand case, and the threat it had presented to the scientific community.
Defamation lawsuits
- Lawsuit against Tim Ball, the Frontier Centre and interviewer
In 2011, the Frontier Centre for Public Policy think tank interviewed Tim Ball and published his allegations about Mann and the CRU email controversy. Mann promptly sued for defamation against Ball, the Frontier Centre and its interviewer. In June 2019, the Frontier Centre apologized for publishing, on its website and in letters, "untrue and disparaging accusations which impugned the character of Dr. Mann". It said that Mann had "graciously accepted our apology and retraction". This did not settle Mann's claims against Ball, who remained a defendant. On March 21, 2019, Ball applied to the court to dismiss the action for delay; this request was granted at a hearing on August 22, 2019, and court costs were awarded to Ball. The actual defamation claims were not judged, but instead, the case was dismissed due to delay, for which Mann and his legal team were held responsible.
- Lawsuit against National Review, the CEI, Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg
As attacks on the work and reputation of climatologists continued, Mann discussed with colleagues the need for a strong response when they were slandered or libeled. In July 2012, Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) blogger Rand Simberg accused Mann of "deception" and "engaging in data manipulation" and alleged that the Penn State investigation that had cleared Mann was a "cover-up and whitewash" comparable to the recent Jerry Sandusky sex scandal, "except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data". The CEI blog editor then removed the sentence as "inappropriate", but a National Review blog post by Mark Steyn cited it and alleged that Mann's hockey stick graph was "fraudulent".
Mann asked CEI and National Review to remove the allegations and apologize, or he would take action. The CEI published further insults, and National Review editor Rich Lowry responded in an article headed "Get Lost" with a declaration that, should Mann sue, the discovery process would be used to reveal and publish Mann's emails. Mann's lawyer filed the defamation lawsuit with the DC Superior Court in October 2012. Defendants were the National Review, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg.
Before the case could go to discovery, CEI and National Review filed a court motion to dismiss it under anti-SLAPP legislation, with the claim that they had merely been using exaggerated language which was acceptable against a public figure. In July 2013, the judge ruled against this motion, and when the defendants took this to appeal a new judge also denied their motion to dismiss, in January 2014. National Review changed its lawyers, and Steyn decided to represent himself in court. Journalist Seth Shulman, at the Union of Concerned Scientists, welcomed the judge's statement that accusations of fraud "go to the heart of scientific integrity. They can be proven true or false. If false, they are defamatory. If made with actual malice, they are actionable."
The defendants again appealed the decision. In August 2014, the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press with 26 other organizations filed an amicus brief in the D.C. appeals court, arguing that the comments at issue were constitutionally protected under the First Amendment as opinion. Steyn chose to be represented by attorney Daniel J. Kornstein. On December 22, 2016, the D.C. appeals court ruled that Mann's case against Simberg and Steyn could go ahead. A "reasonable jury" could find against the defendants, and though the context should be considered, "if the statements assert or imply false facts that defame the individual, they do not find shelter under the First Amendment simply because they are embedded in a larger policy debate". A counterclaim Steyn filed through his attorneys on March 17, 2014, was dismissed with prejudice by the D.C. court on August 29, 2019, leaving Steyn to pay litigation costs.
The defendants filed for certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the hope it would hear their appeal. In November 2019, it denied the petition without comment. In a dissenting opinion, justice Samuel Alito had favored hearing the case on the basis that, even though the defendants might yet prevail in the case, or the outcome itself come before the Court for review, the expense of litigating the case this far might itself deter speakers.
On March 19, 2021, the DC Superior Court ruled that "Steyn’s actual malice cannot be imputed" to National Review, when the post was not reviewed by them before publication and was posted by someone who was not their employee. It therefore granted National Review summary judgment dismissing Mann's case against the publishers.
The lawsuit against writers Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg, filed in 2012, went to trial on January 18, 2024. On February 8, 2024 Michael Mann was awarded punitive damages of $1000 against Simberg and $1 million against Steyn. Mann commented "I hope this verdict sends a message that falsely attacking climate scientists is not protected speech".
Awards and honors
Mann's dissertation was awarded the Phillip M. Orville Prize in 1997 as an "outstanding dissertation in the earth sciences" at Yale University. His co-authorship of a scientific paper published by Nature won him an award from the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) in 2002, and another co-authored paper published in the same year won the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's outstanding scientific publication award. In 2002 he was named by Scientific American as one of fifty "leading visionaries in science and technology”. The Association of American Geographers awarded him the John Russell Mather Paper of the Year award in 2005 for a co-authored paper published in the Journal of Climate. The American Geophysical Union awarded him its Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing in 2006 to recognize his contributions in reviewing manuscripts for its Geophysical Research Letters journal.
The IPCC presented Mann, along with all other "scientists that had contributed substantially to the preparation of IPCC reports", with a personalized certificate "for contributing to the award of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 to the IPCC", celebrating the joint award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and to Al Gore.
In 2012, he was elected a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union for "his significant contributions to understanding decadal-centennial scale climate change over the last two millennia and for pioneering techniques to synthesize patterns and northern hemispheric time series of past climate using proxy data reconstructions."
Following election by the American Meteorological Society he became a new Fellow of the society in 2013. In January 2013 he was designated with the status of distinguished professor in Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences.
In September 2013, Mann was named by Bloomberg Markets in its third annual list of the "50 Most Influential" people, included in a group of "thinkers" with reference to his work with other scientists on the hockey stick graph, his responses on the RealClimate blog "to climate change deniers", and his book publications. Later that month, he received the National Wildlife Federation's National Conservation Achievement Award for Science.
On April 28, 2014, the National Center for Science Education announced that its first annual Friend of the Planet award had been presented to Mann and Richard Alley. In the same year, Mann was named as a Highly Cited Researcher by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI). In 2015 he was elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and in 2016 he was elected Vice Chair of the Topical Group on Physics of Climate (GPC) at the American Physical Society (APS).
On June 19, 2017, Climate One at the Commonwealth Club of California said that he would be honored with the 7th annual Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Science Communication.
He received the James H. Shea Award from the National Association of Geoscience Teachers for his "exceptional contribution in writing or editing Earth science materials for the general public or teachers of Earth science."
On February 8, 2018, the Center for Inquiry announced that Mann had been elected as a 2017 Fellow of its Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.
On February 14, 2018, the American Association for the Advancement of Science announced that Mann was chosen to receive the 2018 Public Engagement with Science award.
On September 4, 2018, the American Geophysical Union announced Mann as the 2018 recipient of its Climate Communication Prize.
On February 12, 2019, Mann and Warren Washington were named to receive the 2019 Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement.
In April 2020, he was elected member of the National Academy of Sciences. Along with Antonella Santuccione Chadha, he also received the World Sustainability Award from the MDPI Sustainability Foundation.
In 2022, the American Physical Society recognized Mann with the Leo Szilard Lectureship Award "for distinguished contributions to the public's understanding of climate science controversies, and to how our individual and collective actions can mitigate climate change."
In 2023 the American Humanist Association gave Mann their 2023 Humanist of the Year award.
In 2024, the British Royal Society named Mann as a Foreign Member.
Public outreach
Mann, along with Gavin Schmidt, Stefan Rahmstorf, and others, co-founded the RealClimate website, launched in December 2004. The website's purpose is to provide a site for commentaries by working climate scientists, "for interested public and journalists".
After repeated attacks against his and his colleagues' academic work and being "hounded by elected officials, threatened with violence, and more", Mann decided to "enter the fray" and "speak out about the very real implications of our research." Mann has engaged with the public through film, television, radio, the press, and talks. The Patriot-News reported in 2014, "The professor operates active Twitter and Facebook accounts. In several weeks, he'll take part in an "Ask Me Anything" session on Reddit. For him, it's about engaging with the community."
Mann serves on the advisory board of The Climate Mobilization, an American grassroots advocacy group calling for a national economic mobilization against climate change on the scale of the home front during World War II, with the goal of 100% clean energy and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. Mann has often called for WWII-scale climate mobilization as a means of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In June 2015, Mann criticized the G7 nations' goal of full decarbonization by 2100 as not very meaningful considering greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced dramatically within the next decade, well ahead of the G7's timeline. "In my view, the science makes clear that 2050 or 2100 is way too far down the road," he told Climate Central. We will need near-term limits if we are going to avoid dangerous warming of the planet."
Since 2013, Mann has been listed on the Advisory Council of the National Center for Science Education.
In July 2018, Mann commented on recent extreme weather events striking across Europe, from the Arctic Circle to Greece, and on the other side of the world, from North American to Japan. He said, “This is the face of climate change", “We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change". “The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle", “We are seeing them play out in real-time and what is happening this summer is a perfect example of that". “We are seeing our predictions come true", “As a scientist that is reassuring, but as a citizen of planet Earth, it is very distressing to see that as it means we have not taken the necessary action".
Publications
Mann has been organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences 'Frontiers of Science' and has served as a committee member or advisor for other National Academy of Sciences panels. He served as editor for the Journal of Climate and has been a member of numerous international and U.S. scientific advisory panels and steering groups. By 2010 he was the lead author or co-author of over 90 scientific publications, the majority of which had appeared in leading peer-reviewed scientific journals: as of 2016, his biographical sketch stated that he was author of more than 200 peer-reviewed and edited publications. Between 1999 and 2010 he served as principal or co-principal investigator on five research projects funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and four more funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). He was also co-investigator on other projects funded by the NOAA, NSF, Department of Energy, United States Agency for International Development, and the Office of Naval Research.
Selected publications
Scholia has a profile for Michael E. Mann (Q633081).- Mann, M.E.; Lees J.M. (1996). "Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series". Climatic Change. 33 (3): 409–445. Bibcode:1996ClCh...33..409M. doi:10.1007/BF00142586. S2CID 153423451. Archived from the original (PS) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved January 2, 2010.
- —; Bradley R.S.; Hughes M.K. (1998). "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries" (PDF). Nature. 392 (6678): 779–787. Bibcode:1998Natur.392..779M. doi:10.1038/33859. S2CID 129871008.
- —; Bradley, R.S.; Hughes, M.K. (1999). "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations". Geophysical Research Letters. 26 (6): 759–762. Bibcode:1999GeoRL..26..759M. doi:10.1029/1999GL900070.
- —; Bradley, R. S.; Hughes, M. K. (2000). "Long-term variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections" (PDF). In Diaz, Henry F.; Markgraf, Vera (eds.). El Niño and the southern oscillation : multiscale variability and global and regional impact. Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 357–413. ISBN 978-0-521-62138-0.
- Shindell D.T.; Schmidt G.A.; —; Rind D.; Waple A. (2001). "Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum" (PDF). Science. 294 (5549): 2149–2152. Bibcode:2001Sci...294.2149S. doi:10.1126/science.1064363. hdl:2060/20020049982. PMID 11739952. S2CID 1545207.
- —; Jones, P.D. (2003). "Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 30 (15): 1820–1823. Bibcode:2003GeoRL..30.1820M. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.408.3837. doi:10.1029/2003GL017814. S2CID 5942198.
- — (2009). "Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106 (11): 4065–4066. Bibcode:2009PNAS..106.4065M. doi:10.1073/pnas.0901303106. PMC 2657409. PMID 19276105.
- — (2015). "The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 71 (1). Sage: 33–45. Bibcode:2015BuAtS..71a..33M. doi:10.1177/0096340214563674. S2CID 145469167.
- —; Rahmstorf, Stefan (March 27, 2017). "Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events". Scientific Reports. 7. Springer Nature: 45242. Bibcode:2017NatSR...745242M. doi:10.1038/srep45242. PMC 5366916. PMID 28345645.
Books
- Mann, Michael; Kump, Lee R. (2008). Dire predictions: understanding global warming. DK. ISBN 978-0-7566-3995-2.
- — (2012). The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-15254-9.
- —; Kump, Lee R. (2015). Dire predictions: understanding global warming (2nd ed.). DK. ISBN 978-1-4654-3364-0.
- —; Toles, Tom (2016). The Madhouse Effect : How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-17786-3. ("A preview of The Madhouse Effect". National Center for Science Education. Retrieved September 1, 2016.)
- —; Herbert, Megan (2018). The Tantrum That Saved The World. World Saving Books. ISBN 978-90-828110-0-1.
- — (2021). The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet. PublicAffairs. ISBN 978-1-541-75822-3.
- — (2023). Our Fragile Moment: How Lessons from Earth's Past Can Help Us Survive the Climate Crisis. PublicAffairs. ISBN 978-1541702899.
Selected editorials and opinion articles
- "Approving Keystone XL could be the biggest mistake of Obama's presidency" by Michael Mann, The Guardian, January 31, 2014.
- "If You See Something, Say Something", The New York Times, January 17, 2014.
- "The Single Shining Hope to Stop Climate Change". Time. April 8, 2017. Retrieved April 25, 2017.
See also
References
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- "Michael Mann awarded the 2019 Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement". news.psu.edu. Penn State University. Retrieved February 12, 2019.
- ^ "2020 NAS Election". National Academy of Sciences.
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- ^ "EGU – Awards & Medals – Hans Oeschger Medal – Michael Mann". egu.eu. European Geosciences Union. 2012. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
- ^ "Center for Inquiry News: Cause & Effect: The CFI Newsletter – No. 99". www.centerforinquiry.net. Archived from the original on February 8, 2018. Retrieved February 8, 2018.
- Anne Becher; Joseph Richey (2008). American Environmental Leaders: M–Z. Grey House Pub. ISBN 978-1-59237-119-8.
- Lawrence N. Mann at the Mathematics Genealogy Project
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As someone of Jewish ancestry, I'm truly horrified that anyone could be so cynical and insensitive
- Mann 2012, pp. 5–6
- Mann 2012, pp. 1–2, 6–10, 28–30
Mann, M.E.; Park, J. (1994). "Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scales" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research. 99 (D12): 25819–25833. Bibcode:1994JGR....9925819M. doi:10.1029/94JD02396.
Schlesinger, M. E.; Ramankutty, N. (1994). "An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years". Nature. 367 (6465): 723–726. Bibcode:1994Natur.367..723S. doi:10.1038/367723a0. S2CID 4351411. - House Committee on Energy and Commerce (2006). Questions surrounding the 'Hockey stick' temperature studies; implications for climate change assessments. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, 109th Congress, Second session. U.S. Government Printing Office. pp. 765–766. Retrieved August 1, 2010. (PDF).
- Mann 2012, pp. 30–34
Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey; Bradley, R. S. (1995). "Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries". Nature. 378 (6554): 266–270. Bibcode:1995Natur.378..266M. doi:10.1038/378266a0. S2CID 30872107. - A study of ocean-atmosphere interaction and low-frequency variability of the climate system. Yale University. 1998. ISBN 9780231152549. OCLC 54219996.
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- Mann 2012, pp. 48–50
- Jones, P. D.; Briffa, K. R.; Barnett, T. P.; Tett, S. F. B. (1998). "High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures". The Holocene. 8 (4): 455–471. Bibcode:1998Holoc...8..455J. doi:10.1191/095968398667194956. S2CID 2227769.
- ^ Monastersky, Richard (September 8, 2006). "Climate Science on Trial – Research". The Chronicle of Higher Education. p. 10. Retrieved March 6, 2011.
- Mann 2012, pp. 50–53
- Mann, M. E.; Bradley, R. S.; Hughes, M. K. (1999). "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations". Geophysical Research Letters. 26 (6): 759–762. Bibcode:1999GeoRL..26..759M. doi:10.1029/1999GL900070.
- "News Releases : 1998 Was Warmest Year of Millennium, UMass Amherst Climate Researchers Report". www.umass.edu. UMass Amherst Office of News & Information. March 3, 1999. Archived from the original on June 29, 2011. Retrieved March 6, 2011.
- Mann 2012, p. 53
- Christy, J. R.; Clarke, R. A.; Gruza, G. V.; Jouzel, J.; Mann, M. E.; Oerlemans, J.; Salinger, M. J.; Wang, S.-W. (2001). "Observed Climate Variability and Change". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-80767-8.
- Mann, Bradley & Hughes 2000
- Mann 2012, pp. 104–105, 306
- Mann & Jones 2003.
- Mann, Michael E. "Research Findings". www.meteo.psu.edu. Penn State University. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
- Johnson, Scott K. (February 4, 2013). "Tree ring history spurs actual climate science debate". Ars Technica. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
- Messer, A'ndrea Elyse (April 7, 2014). "Slowdown of global warming fleeting". news.psu.edu. Penn State University. Retrieved April 28, 2014., Mann, M. E.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K. (2014). "On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (9): 3211–3219. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.3211M. doi:10.1002/2014GL059233. pdf
- Mann, Michael E. (May 7, 2018). "Climate Scientist Won't Back Down Despite Threats, Harassment". KQED Science. KQED. Retrieved November 27, 2018.
- Mann, M. E.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K. (January 3, 2020). "Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations". Nature Communications. 11 (1): 49. Bibcode:2020NatCo..11...49M. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w. PMC 6941994. PMID 31900412. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
- Pearce, Fred (February 9, 2010). "Part three: Hockey stick graph took pride of place in IPCC report, despite doubts | Environment". The Guardian. London. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
- Revkin, Andrew C. (June 22, 2006). "Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate". The New York Times.
Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, National Research Council (2006). Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the last 2,000 years. National Academies Press. doi:10.17226/11676. ISBN 978-0-309-10225-4. - Brumfiel, G. (June 2006). "Academy affirms hockey-stick graph". Nature. 441 (7097): 1032–3. Bibcode:2006Natur.441.1032B. doi:10.1038/4411032a. PMID 16810211.
- Warner, Frank (January 3, 2010). "Penn State climate professor: 'I'm a skeptic'". The Morning Call. Archived from the original on March 31, 2010. Retrieved July 6, 2010.
And in a wide-ranging interview, Mann says that not all global warming science is settled. It's not yet certain, for example, that the heat is reducing the world population of polar bears or that it increases the number of hurricanes, he said.
- Frank, David; Esper, Jan; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilson, Rob (May 14, 2010). "A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: A perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology". Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 1 (4): 507–516. Bibcode:2010WIRCC...1..507F. doi:10.1002/wcc.53. S2CID 16524970.
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- Fischer, Douglas; The Daily Climate (July 1, 2010). "Climategate Scientist Cleared in Inquiry, Again". Scientific American. Retrieved August 24, 2015.
- Carrington, Damian (May 20, 2014). "'Climategate' had only fleeting effect on global warming scepticism". The Guardian. Retrieved August 24, 2015.
- ^ "Scientists' 'Climategate' e-mails 'just discussions'". BBC News. August 6, 2010. Retrieved January 2, 2014.
- ^ Efstathiou, Jim Jr. (August 22, 2011). "Climate-Change Scientist Cleared in Closing of U.S. Data-Altering Inquiry". bloomberg.com. Bloomberg. Retrieved January 2, 2014.
- ^ "Final Investigation Report Involving Dr. Michael E. Mann" (PDF). live.psu.edu. The Pennsylvania State University. June 4, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 13, 2010.
- Foley, Henry C.; Scaroni, Alan W.; Yekel, Candice A. (February 3, 2010). "RA-10 Inquiry Report: Concerning the Allegations of Research Misconduct Against Dr. Michael E. Mann, Department of Meteorology, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University" (PDF). research.psu.edu. The Pennsylvania State University. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 15, 2010. Retrieved February 7, 2010. The allegations were of "manipulating data, destroying records and colluding to hamper the progress of scientific discourse around the issue of anthropogenic global warming from approximately 1998."
- "Denial of Petitions for Reconsideration of the Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act / Regulatory Initiatives / Climate Change / U.S. EPA". epa.gov. Environmental Protection Agency. July 29, 2010. Retrieved September 16, 2011.
- Zinser, Todd J., Inspector General of the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, in a letter to Sen. Inhofe, February 18, 2011, wrote, "We found no evidence in the CRU emails that NOAA inappropriately manipulated data comprising the GHCN-M dataset."
- "Case Number: A09120086" (PDF). National Science Foundation Office of Inspector General.
- "Climate scientist cleared of research misconduct". physicsworld.com. Institute of Physics. August 30, 2011. Retrieved January 3, 2012.
- Walker, Julian (May 19, 2010). "Academics fight Cuccinelli's call for climate-change records". The Virginian-Pilot. Archived from the original on July 3, 2010. Retrieved May 29, 2010.
- "A judge puts a damper on Mr. Cuccinelli's U-Va. witch hunt". The Washington Post. August 31, 2010.
- Fitzgerald, Brendan (August 30, 2010). "Court sets aside Cuccinelli investigation of UVA climate scientist". C-Ville Weekly. Archived from the original on July 16, 2011. Retrieved December 21, 2010.
- Rubin, Rebecca (October 6, 2010). "Cuccinelli orders new investigation". The Cavalier Daily.
- Kumar, Anita (March 2, 2012). "Va. Supreme Court tosses Cuccinelli's case against former U-Va. climate change researcher – Virginia Politics". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
Goldenberg, Suzanne (March 2, 2012). "Virginia court rejects sceptic's bid for climate science emails : Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved March 2, 2012. - Mann, Michael (October 8, 2010). "Get the anti-science bent out of politics". The Washington Post.
- Sykes, Ed (July 1, 2013). "McAuliffe, Mann Encourage Science & Technology Innovation". NBC29 WVIR Charlottesville, VA News, Sports and Weather. Retrieved July 5, 2013.
- Hutchins, J. Reynolds (July 1, 2013). "Ex-UVa professor Mann stumps with McAuliffe in Charlottesville". The Daily Progress. Retrieved July 5, 2013.
- Greer, Darryl (March 28, 2011). "Prof Claims Climate-Denier Defamed Him". Courthouse News Service. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
- Michael Mann v. Timothy Ball, Frontier Centre, John Doe, VLC-SS-111913 (BCSC 2011).
- "Retraction and Apology to Michael Mann". Frontier Centre For Public Policy. June 7, 2019. Archived from the original on June 9, 2019. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
- McIntosh, Emma (June 16, 2019). "A Scientist Took Climate Change Deniers to Court and Wrested an Apology From Them". Mother Jones. Retrieved June 16, 2019. (story originally published by the National Observer)
- Michael Mann v. Timothy Ball, 1580 (BCSC 2019) ("This is a relatively straightforward defamation action and should have been resolved long before now. That it has not been resolved is because the plaintiff has not given it the priority that he should have. In the circumstances, justice requires that the action be dismissed and, accordingly, I do hereby dismiss the action for delay.").
- ^ Eichenwald, Kurt (January 30, 2014). "A Change in the Legal Climate". Newsweek. Retrieved February 25, 2014.
- ^ Timmer, John (October 26, 2012). "Climate scientist gets compared to Jerry Sandusky, files libel suit". Ars Technica. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
- Orso, Anna (January 31, 2014). "Michael Mann: The Penn State professor who went from stormless scientist to climate crusader : PennLive.com". The Patriot-News. Retrieved February 25, 2014.
- ^ "Michael E. Mann Ph.D. v. National Review Inc. and Competitive Enterprise Institute and Rand Stimberg and Mark Steyn: Complaint" (PDF). legaltimes.typepad.com. Superior Court of the District of Columbia. October 22, 2012.
- McGurn, William (September 23, 2019). "Opinion | A Climate Change for Lawsuits". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
- Timmer, John (July 22, 2013). "'Hockey stick graph' climate researcher's defamation suit to go forward". Ars Technica. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
- Sheppard, Kate (July 24, 2013). "Climate Scientist Prevails in First Round of Defamation Suit Against Conservative Bloggers". Mother Jones. Retrieved February 22, 2014.
- Timmer, John (January 26, 2014). "Climate scientist's defamation suit allowed to go forward". Ars Technica. Retrieved March 28, 2014.
- Seth Shulman (February 12, 2014). "Why a Climate Scientist's Libel Case Matters | Michael Mann's Libel Suit Progresses in Court". LiveScience. Retrieved December 31, 2014.
- "Competitive Enterprise Institute and National Review v. Mann". Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press. August 11, 2014. Retrieved December 31, 2014.
- Chakraborty, Barnini (August 14, 2014). "Groups rally around think tank, publication being sued for global warming views". FoxNews.com. Fox News. Retrieved December 31, 2014. The brief has been published by the RCFP.
- Kornstein, Daniel J. "Representative Cases". kvwp.net. Kornstein Veisz Wexle, & Pollard LLP. Retrieved December 31, 2014. Third in the list in the notice, Mann v. National Review, et al., (Super. Ct. D.C. 2014). "Represent political and cultural commentator Mark Steyn as defendant in libel suit brought by climate change scientist."
- "Court: Climate scientist can sue conservative writers over alleged defamation". The Hill. December 22, 2016. Retrieved December 23, 2016.
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- "Decisions". williamslopatto.com. Williams Lopatto PLLC. August 29, 2019. Retrieved September 25, 2019. – August 29th, 2019: Order Granting Motion to Dismiss the Counterclaims of Counter-Plaintiff Steyn
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- NR Staff (March 19, 2021). National Review Prevails against Michael Mann National Review. Retrieved March 23, 2021.
- Superior Court of the District of Columbia (March 19, 2021). Order Granting Defendant National Review’s Motion For Summary Judgment Retrieved March 23, 2021.
- Noor, Dharna (January 17, 2024). "US climate scientist's defamation case over online attacks finally comes to trial". The Guardian. Archived from the original on January 19, 2024.
- DeSmog (January 19, 2024). "After 12 Years, Climate Scientist's Lawsuit Against Alleged Defamers Begins Trial". DeSmog. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
The two conservative commentators accused of defamation mounted separate defenses, and both continued to disparage Mann during the first day of this long-anticipated trial... Back in 2022, Williams said Mann received about $3.5 million in funding a year. Today, that number is at $500,000, which Williams claimed is a direct result of Steyn and Simberg's attacks on Mann and his personal and professional reputation.
- Erdenesanaa, Delger (February 8, 2024). "Michael Mann, a Leading Climate Scientist, Wins His Defamation Suit". New York Times. Archived from the original on February 10, 2024. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
- Guardian staff and agencies (February 9, 2024). "US climate scientist Michael Mann wins $1m in defamation lawsuit". The Guardian. London, United Kingdom. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
- ^ "Michael E. Mann". PSU People. Penn State Meteorology and Atmospheric Science.
- The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the IPCC as an organization, and the prize was not an award to any individual involved with the IPCC.
- "IPCC Statement about the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize" (PDF). IPCC Press Office. October 29, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 25, 2015. Retrieved January 2, 2014.
personalized certificates .... were sent to coordinating lead authors, lead authors, review editors, Bureau members, staff of the technical support units and staff of the secretariat from the IPCC's inception in 1988 until the award of the prize in 2007
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Mann, Michael E. (October 25, 2012). "Timeline Photos: Facebook". facebook. Retrieved October 28, 2012. - Bralower, Timothy; Rosenhoover, Christie (2007). "Nobel Prize Comes to Geosciences" (PDF). Penn State College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. Retrieved October 28, 2012.
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"2013 AMS Honorary Members, Awards, Lecturers and Fellows" (PDF). American Meteorological Society. 2012. Retrieved October 28, 2012. - "Chen and Mann named distinguished professor in EMS". Penn State Live. January 24, 2013. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved January 25, 2013.
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- Wunsch, A. David (2019). "Climate Madhouse (Review of "The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy") [Book Reviews]". IEEE Technology and Society Magazine. 38 (3): 12–20. doi:10.1109/MTS.2019.2934588. S2CID 203994009.
Sources
- Mann, Michael (2012). The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-15254-9.
External links
- Mann's home page, Pennsylvania State University
- Michael E. Mann at IMDb
- Michael E. Mann on the Muck Rack journalist listing site
- "EPA Climate Lecture with Professor Michael Mann (on 15th November 2021)". YouTube. EPA Ireland. November 18, 2021.
- "Michael E. Mann: The New Climate War". YouTube. UH (University of Hawaii) Better Tomorrow Speaker Series. January 13, 2022.
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