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Revision as of 15:57, 16 November 2004 editEd Poor (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers59,195 edits There are not only 2 alternatives being discussed: action now or action soon. The 3rd alternative is to do nothing← Previous edit Latest revision as of 19:03, 4 December 2024 edit undo216.49.130.33 (talk) →Debates over most effective response to warming: Changing and adding links. 
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{{Short description|List of debates over global warming}}
{{mergefrom}} ]
{{Use American English|date=August 2021}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=January 2020}}


There are past and present public debates over certain aspects of climate change: how much has occurred in modern times, ], what ] will be, and what action should be taken to curb it now or later, and so forth. In the ], there is a ] in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of ]es.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf |title='Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.' IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Summary for Policymakers. 'The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.' |access-date=26 December 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181022184656/https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf |archive-date=22 October 2018 |url-status=dead }}</ref>
The '''global warming controversy''' is a long-running dispute about whether the Global Warming Theory (GWT) is true or not. Can human activities - past, present and future - have such an effect on climate as to cause significant ], as by industrial emissions of ]?


The controversies are, by now, mostly political rather than scientific: there is a scientific consensus that global warming is happening and is caused by human activity.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ |title=Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming |website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet |access-date=16 September 2018}}</ref> Public debates that also reflect scientific debate include estimates of how responsive the climate system might be to any given level of greenhouse gases (]). Disputes over the key scientific facts of global warming are more prevalent in the ] than in the scientific literature, where such issues are treated as resolved, and such disputes are more prevalent in the ] and ] than ].<ref name="Stoddard">{{cite journal |last1=Stoddard |first1=Isak |last2=Anderson |first2=Kevin |last3=Capstick |first3=Stuart |last4=Carton |first4=Wim |last5=Depledge |first5=Joanna |last6=Facer |first6=Keri |last7=Gough |first7=Clair |last8=Hache |first8=Frederic |last9=Hoolohan |first9=Claire |last10=Hultman |first10=Martin |last11=Hällström |first11=Niclas |last12=Kartha |first12=Sivan |last13=Klinsky |first13=Sonja |last14=Kuchler |first14=Magdalena |last15=Lövbrand |first15=Eva |display-authors=etal |date=18 October 2021 |title=Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve? |url=https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104 |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |language=en |volume=46 |issue=1 |pages=653–689 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104 |issn=1543-5938 |s2cid=233815004 |access-date=31 August 2022 |last16=Nasiritousi |first16=Naghmeh |last17=Newell |first17=Peter |last18=Peters |first18=Glen P. |last19=Sokona |first19=Youba |last20=Stirling |first20=Andy |last21=Stilwell |first21=Matthew |last22=Spash |first22=Clive L. |last23=Williams |first23=Mariama |hdl=1983/93c742bc-4895-42ac-be81-535f36c5039d|hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|first1=M. |first2=J. |title=Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press |last1=Boykoff |journal=Global Environmental Change Part A |volume=14 |issue=2 |pages=125–136 |date=July 2004 |doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001 |last2=Boykoff |bibcode=2004GEC....14..125B |url=http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/boykoff04-gec.pdf |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151106081048/http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/boykoff04-gec.pdf |archive-date= 6 November 2015 }}</ref><ref name="merchants_doubt">{{cite book | title=Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming | first1=Naomi | last1=Oreskes | author-link1=Naomi Oreskes | first2=Erik | last2=Conway | publisher=Bloomsbury Press | edition=first | isbn=978-1-59691-610-4 | date=2010 | url=https://archive.org/details/merchantsofdoubt00ores }}</ref>
This would be a scientific argument confined to the scientific press if there were no ecological or social impacts. The point that leads to major controversy - because it could have significant economic impacts - is whether action (usually, restrictions on the use of ]s to reduce ] emmissions) should be taken -- and, if so, now or in the near future.


== Debates around details in the science ==
The science of global warming is spread over several articles:
{{See also|Scientific consensus on climate change}}
*The basic science is covered in ]
There have been many debates around the details of climate change science. ] and "skeptics" tend to ] data or studies, and then trump up any scientific discussions or apparent discrepancies that match with their agenda.{{citation needed|date=December 2023}} Many of those apparent discrepancies have been reconciled in the meantime, ] have become more accurate, the ] has strengthened and so forth. For example, climatologist ] has published widely on the topic of ] and has exposed flaws in the publications of other scientists.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E. |last2=Fasullo |first2=John T. |last3=Abraham |first3=John P. |date=2011 |title=Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies |journal=Remote Sensing |language=en |volume=3 |issue=9 |pages=2051–2056 |doi=10.3390/rs3092051 |bibcode=2011RemS....3.2051T |issn=2072-4292 |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E. |last2=Fasullo |first2=John T. |last3=O'Dell |first3=Chris |last4=Wong |first4=Takmeng |date=2010 |title=Relationships between tropical sea surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere radiation |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |language=en |volume=37 |issue=3 |doi=10.1029/2009GL042314 |bibcode=2010GeoRL..37.3702T |s2cid=6402800 |issn=0094-8276|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Foster |first1=G. |last2=Annan |first2=J. D. |last3=Jones |first3=P. D. |last4=Mann |first4=M. E. |last5=Mullan |first5=B. |last6=Renwick |first6=J. |last7=Salinger |first7=J. |last8=Schmidt |first8=G. A. |last9=Trenberth |first9=K. E. |date=2010 |title=Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |language=en |volume=115 |issue=D9 |doi=10.1029/2009JD012960 |bibcode=2010JGRD..115.9110F |issn=0148-0227|doi-access=free }}</ref>
*Recent climate trends include: ], ]
*Past climate behavior, being studied in determining normal variation as well as recent climate: ], ], ]
*Causes of recent climate trends: ]


For past debates and controversies on scientific details see for example:
== Supporters' position ==
* ]
* ]
* ] (the ] assessment reports, like the most recent ] summarise the state of the art of climate science at the time).
== Debates over most effective response to warming ==
{{See also|Politics of climate change|}}


There have been debates on the best responses to slow global warming, and their timing. The debates are around the specific actions for ] and ], or ] in general. See for example:
Supporters of the ] theory assert that:
*]
*]
*]
*] (])


== See also ==
* the ] reports correctly summarise the state of climate science
{{portal|border=no|Global warming|Ecology|Environment|World}}
* the ] shows a rise of 0.4-0.8 &deg;C over the last 100 years
* ]
* this rise is unprecedented in the ]
* ]
* ]s can reproduce this trend, but only when using ] forcing
* ]
* ] shows that the rise can be attributed to human emissions of ]
* ]
* climate models predict more warming, and other climate effects (], etc) in the future
* ]
* there is a scientific consensus behind all of the above
* humankind is performing a great geophysical experiment and if it turns out badly - however that is defined - we cannot undo it.


== References ==
Proponents of global warming tend to support the IPCC position and thus represent a broadly unified viewpoint, though with considerable differences over what action should be taken. Optionally, supporters may go on to point out that there is a good chance that the future changes may be undesirable, and that planning to avoid or mitigate them would be a good idea.
{{Reflist}}


{{Climate change|state=expanded}}
Participation in the IPCC process does not imply endorsement of it. However, only 2 of the 120 contributing authors to the IPCC ] are known to have voiced any complaint.


]
== Opponents' position ==
]

]
There are many reasons for opposition to the global warming theory and these major positions are independent of each other. Some items in this list may contradict others:
]

]
* IPCC draw firm conclusions unjustified by the science, especially given the acknowledged weakness of cloud physics in the climate models.
]
* Using "consensus" as evidence is an ] argument rather than scientific discussion.
]
* Earth's climate has been both colder and warmer than today, and these changes are adequately explained by mechanisms that do not involve human greenhouse gas emissions.
]
* There is no significant global warming relative to the expected natural trends.
* Climate science can not make definitive predictions yet, since the computer models used to make these predictions are still evolving and do not yet take into account recently discovered feedback mechanisms.
* Global warming studies have errors or have not been reproduced.

Members of this faction give more weight to data such as paleoclimatic studies, temperature measurements made from ], and satellites which they claim show less warming than surface land and sea records.

Opponents tend to define themselves in terms of opposition to the ] position. They generally believe that climate science is not yet able to provide us with solid answers to all the major questions about the global climate.

Opponents frequently characterise supporters claims as ] and premature, so as to emphasise what they perceive as the lack of scientific evidence supporting global warming scenarios.

Opponents also say that if global warning is real and man-made, no action need be taken now because:
* Future scientific advances or engineering projects will remedy the problem before it becomes serious and for less money.
* A small amount of global warming would be benign or even beneficial.
* There is a distinct correlation between GDP growth and greenhouse gas emissions. A cutback in emissions would lead to a decrease in the rate of GDP growth.
* Climate models will never be able to predict the future climate, until they can predict solar and volcanic activity


See-also: ].

==Scope of the controversy==

The controversy occurs almost entirely within the press and political arenas. In the scientific press and amongst climate researchers, there is little "controversy" about global warming, only a desire to investigate a scientific problem and determine its consequences. As ] writes:

: ''In 1995 the IPCC assessment concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate". Since then the evidence has become much stronger ... Thus the headline in IPCC (2001) is "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"... While some changes arising from global warming are benign or even beneficial, the economic effects of the weather extremes are substantial and clearly warrant attention in policy debates... Consequently, there is a strong case for slowing down the projected rates of climate change from human influences.''

Trenberth also provides evidence for the controversy that occurs when science meets the political arene:

: ''The ] was approved line by line by governments... The argument here is that the scientists determine what can said, but the governments determine how it can best be said. Negotiations occur over wording to ensure accuracy, balance, clarity of message, and relevance to understanding and policy. The IPCC process is dependent on the good will of the participants in producing a balanced assessment. However, in Shanghai, it appeared that there were attempts to blunt, and perhaps obfuscate, the messages in the report, most notably by Saudi Arabia. This led to very protracted debates over wording on even bland and what should be uncontroversial text... The most contentious paragraph in the IPCC (2001) SPM was the concluding one on attribution. After much debate the following was carefully crafted: "In the light of new evidence, and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."''

==Counting experts==
The proportion of scientists who support or oppose any of the global warming theories is a matter of controversy in its own right (see ]). Environmentalists and their allies claim virtually unanimous support for the global warming theory from the scientific community. Opponents maintain that it is the other way around, claiming that the overwhelming majority of scientists either dismiss global warming altogether or merely consider it "unproven" (see ]).

==Arguments around the world==
The arguments over global warming are viewed differently in different parts of the world. In ] for example the environmentalist argument over Global warming has gained wider acceptance than in other parts of the world, most notably North America.

==Beneficial or detrimental==
There is also disagreement on whether the effects of global warming will be beneficial or detrimental. Many researchers predict disastrous consequences for a warming of 1.5 to 7 degrees Celsius. The UN's ] (IPCC) predicts such a warming is likely within the 21st century, unless severe measures are taken (see ]).

Other researchers feel that up to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming would increase crop yields and stabilize weather. Many of these doubt a larger warming is likely. In response, some advocates of strong early measures (well beyond Kyoto) note that the belief in beneficial effects and the doubt that a large warming is possible should be independent if these conclusions were in fact neutrally derived from scientific research.

==Wait and see==
Others suggest that a "wait and see" strategy disadvantages 3.5 billion people in favor of narrow advantage for a few growing regions and ]s. However, those others have not provided details for their claims nor the advantages given to the other 3 billion people.

==An unstable world==
New findings have suggested that the earth's climate system is inherently unstable, and that global warming could thus precipitate non-linear sudden climate shifts, as have been discovered to have occurred within the earth's past. Ocean circulation, believed to be the key to such climate shifts, has been observed to be slowing, causing alarm among oceanographers.
Some scientists fear that the ], which conveys warm water from the ] across the ] and is partly responsible for the relative mildness of northern Europe's climate (though other factors also predominate: ), could be reduced or stopped altogether by the decreased salt content of sea water resulting from global warming. This could cause temperatures in northern Europe to drop.

The US ] issued a report on this phenomenon in 2002, titled ''Abrupt Climate Change - Inevitable Surprises.'' "It is important not to be fatalistic about the threats posed by abrupt climate change," it stated. "Societies have faced both gradual and abrupt climate changes for millennia and have learned to adapt through various mechanisms, such as moving indoors, developing irrigation for crops, and migrating away from inhospitable regions. Nevertheless, because climate change will likely continue in the coming decades, denying the likelihood or downplaying the relevance of past abrupt events could be costly."

==Recent reports==
However, the US ], both in its 2002 report to President George W. Bush, and in its latest publications, has strongly endorsed evidence of an average global temperature increase in the 20th century and stated that human activity is heavily implicated in causing this increase.
The ] (), the ] (), and other scientific societies have issued similar declarations. John Christy, who is usually placed in the skeptics camp, has signed the AGU statement on climate change.

Advocates of the ] hypothesis who predict adverse consequences from as little as 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming nearly all support the ] as a countermeasure. <!-- Others oppose it. --> Details of the agreement are in the article about the Kyoto Protocol, including both the pollution and fiscal requirements.


]

Latest revision as of 19:03, 4 December 2024

List of debates over global warming

There are past and present public debates over certain aspects of climate change: how much has occurred in modern times, what causes it, what its effects will be, and what action should be taken to curb it now or later, and so forth. In the scientific literature, there is a very strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

The controversies are, by now, mostly political rather than scientific: there is a scientific consensus that global warming is happening and is caused by human activity. Public debates that also reflect scientific debate include estimates of how responsive the climate system might be to any given level of greenhouse gases (climate sensitivity). Disputes over the key scientific facts of global warming are more prevalent in the media than in the scientific literature, where such issues are treated as resolved, and such disputes are more prevalent in the United States and Australia than globally.

Debates around details in the science

See also: Scientific consensus on climate change

There have been many debates around the details of climate change science. Climate change deniers and "skeptics" tend to cherry-pick data or studies, and then trump up any scientific discussions or apparent discrepancies that match with their agenda. Many of those apparent discrepancies have been reconciled in the meantime, climate models have become more accurate, the scientific consensus on climate change has strengthened and so forth. For example, climatologist Kevin E. Trenberth has published widely on the topic of climate variability and has exposed flaws in the publications of other scientists.

For past debates and controversies on scientific details see for example:

Debates over most effective response to warming

See also: Politics of climate change

There have been debates on the best responses to slow global warming, and their timing. The debates are around the specific actions for climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation, or climate action in general. See for example:

See also

References

  1. "'Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.' IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Summary for Policymakers. 'The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.'" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 October 2018. Retrieved 26 December 2018.
  2. "Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming". Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  3. Stoddard, Isak; Anderson, Kevin; Capstick, Stuart; Carton, Wim; Depledge, Joanna; Facer, Keri; Gough, Clair; Hache, Frederic; Hoolohan, Claire; Hultman, Martin; Hällström, Niclas; Kartha, Sivan; Klinsky, Sonja; Kuchler, Magdalena; Lövbrand, Eva; Nasiritousi, Naghmeh; Newell, Peter; Peters, Glen P.; Sokona, Youba; Stirling, Andy; Stilwell, Matthew; Spash, Clive L.; Williams, Mariama; et al. (18 October 2021). "Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 46 (1): 653–689. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104. hdl:1983/93c742bc-4895-42ac-be81-535f36c5039d. ISSN 1543-5938. S2CID 233815004. Retrieved 31 August 2022.
  4. Boykoff, M.; Boykoff, J. (July 2004). "Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press" (PDF). Global Environmental Change Part A. 14 (2): 125–136. Bibcode:2004GEC....14..125B. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 November 2015.
  5. Oreskes, Naomi; Conway, Erik (2010). Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (first ed.). Bloomsbury Press. ISBN 978-1-59691-610-4.
  6. Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Abraham, John P. (2011). "Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies". Remote Sensing. 3 (9): 2051–2056. Bibcode:2011RemS....3.2051T. doi:10.3390/rs3092051. ISSN 2072-4292.
  7. Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; O'Dell, Chris; Wong, Takmeng (2010). "Relationships between tropical sea surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere radiation". Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (3). Bibcode:2010GeoRL..37.3702T. doi:10.1029/2009GL042314. ISSN 0094-8276. S2CID 6402800.
  8. Foster, G.; Annan, J. D.; Jones, P. D.; Mann, M. E.; Mullan, B.; Renwick, J.; Salinger, J.; Schmidt, G. A.; Trenberth, K. E. (2010). "Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 115 (D9). Bibcode:2010JGRD..115.9110F. doi:10.1029/2009JD012960. ISSN 0148-0227.
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