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{{Short description|Croatian economist and demographer}}
{{POV check}}
{{Infobox person
'''Vladimir Žerjavić''' (], ] - ], ]) was a ]n ] and a ] specialist who published a series of revisionist historical articles and books during the ] and ] in which he argued that the scope of the ] in ]-era Croatia was exaggerated. Zerjavic also known for alleged inflating of death count during war 1991-1995 (compared to ICTY data, the counts are inflated) and also for making alledgedly inflated counts of the killed ] soldiers in Bleiburg. Most Serbs and Serbian historians see him as a ] and discount his claims completely, though there are some exceptions, most notably ]. But even Bogoljub Kocovic, who is often quoted together with Zerjavic, claimed that in the 90s Zerjavic has become an open Croatian nationalist, and has distanced from Zerjavic.
|name=Vladimir Žerjavić
|image =
|caption =
|birth_date = {{birth date|1912|08|02|df=yes}}
|birth_place = ], ]<br>(now ])
|death_date = {{death date and age|2001|09|05|1912|08|02|df=yes}}
|death_place = ], Croatia
|nationality = ], ], ]n
|alma_mater = ]
|occupation = Economist, demographer, U.N. adviser
}}


'''Vladimir Žerjavić''' (2 August 1912 – 5 September 2001)<ref name="Croatian Encyclopedia">{{cite news|url=http://www.enciklopedija.hr/natuknica.aspx?id=67703|language=hr|publisher=enciklopedija.hr|title=Žerjavić, Vladimir|access-date=12 December 2016}}</ref> was a ]n ] and demographer who published a series of historical articles and books during the 1980s and 1990s on demographic losses in Yugoslavia during ] and of Axis forces and civilians in the ] shortly after the capitulation of Germany. From 1964 to 1982, he worked as an adviser for industrial development in the ].<ref>{{cite book |last1=Goldstein |first1=Ivo |last2=Lengel-Krizman |first2=Narcisa |title=Anti-semitism, Holocaust, anti-Fascism |date=1997 |publisher=Jewish Community |isbn=978-9-53968-361-8 |page=255 |quote=Vladimir Žerjavić (1913), economist. UN expert from 1964, advisor for industrial development in the UN Economic Commission for Africa, advisor of some African, Asian and Central American governments. From 1982 engaged in analysing population changes in Yugoslavia.}}</ref>
Žerjavić asserted that ] lost 1,027,000 people in World War II. Of that, 295,000 died in Croatia, and 328,000 in ] (both part of the ] and under the ] regime at the time), and another 36,000 from those countries died abroad. His claim includes 153,000 civilian victims in Croatia and 174,000 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and of that, 85,000 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina and 48,000 from Croatia died in ]s. This was substantially smaller than in all officially accepted estimates before, especially with regard to previous estimates of hundreds of thousands of Serbian deaths in Jasenovac and other places.


==Early life==
With regard to the ], Žerjavić's calculation ended with a total of 197,000 Serbian civilian victims on the territory of the Independent State of Croatia: 50,000 in the ], 45,000 killed by the Germans, 34,000 civilians killed in battles between Ustaše, ] and ], 28,000 killed in prisons, pits and other camps, etc. Another 125,000 Serbian people from NDH were killed as combatants, raising the total to 322,000.
Žerjavić was born in ] and graduated at the Faculty of Economics at the ].<ref name="Croatian Encyclopedia" /> He was one of four siblings, having two sisters, Viktorija (1908–1993) and Darinka (1921–2009) and a brother, Slavko. After 1934 he worked in the private sector, and after 1945 in various institutions of ]. Between 1958 and 1982 he worked abroad as an industrial consultant. In 1964 he joined the ] and later consulted the governments of various nations.<ref name="Croatian Encyclopedia" />


==Žerjavić's calculations regarding ]==
This has caused many, especially among Serbian historians, to accuse Zerjavic of politically motivated and doctored estimates, which went so far as to call Zerjavic a ]. For instance, Zerjavic used growth rate for Serbs in Bosnia as 1,1%(as for all nations together), while critics point out that growth rate for Serbs was 2.4% (1921-1931) and 3.5% (1949-1953).{{fact}}
In the 1980s Žerjavić conducted a research on demographic losses in Yugoslavia during World War II, at about the same time as ], a Serb statistician.<ref name=Zimmermann>{{cite book |last=Zimmermann |first=Tanja |year=2014 |title=Balkan memories: Media constructions of national and transnational history |publisher=Transcript Verlag |isbn=978-3-83941-712-6 |page=195}}</ref> Žerjavić's calculations of total victims in Yugoslavia are based on looking at pre- and post-war censuses. Zerjavić asserted that Yugoslavia lost a total 1,027,000 people in World War II.


{| class="wikitable floatright"
Some international agencies have accepted Croat Žerjavić's (and almost equal data achieved by Serbian statistician ]) calculations as the most reliable data on war losses in Yugoslavia during ].{{fact}}
|+ Victims by nationality comparison
|-
!Nationality!!1964 list!!Kočović !!Žerjavić
|-
|Serbs || 346,740 || 487,000 || 530,000
|-
|Croats || 83,257 || 207,000 || 192,000
|-
|Slovenes || 42,027 || 32,000 || 42,000
|-
|Montenegrins || 16,276 || 50,000 || 20,000
|-
|Macedonians || 6,724 || 7,000 || 6,000
|-
|Muslims || 32,300 || 86,000 || 103,000
|-
|Other Slavs || – || 12,000 || 7,000
|-
|Albanians || 3,241 || 6,000 || 18,000
|-
|Jews || 45,000 || 60,000 || 57,000
|-
|Gypsies || – || 27,000 || 18,000
|-
|Germans || – || 26,000 || 28,000
|-
|Hungarians || 2,680 || – || –
|-
|Slovaks || 1,160 || – || –
|-
|Turks || 686 || – || –
|-
|Others || – || 14,000 || 6,000
|-
|Unknown || 16,202 || – || –
|-
! Total || 597,323 || 1,014,000 || 1,027,000
|}


{| class="wikitable" style="margin-right: auto; margin-right: auto; border: none;"
Žerjavić's (and Bogoljub Kočović's) calculations of war losses in Yugoslavia during ] were accepted by the ], together with other typically higher estimates:
|+ Victims by country and nationality{{sfn|Geiger|2011|p=714}}
|-
!!!Serbs!!Montenegrins!!Croats!!Muslims!!Jews!!Others!!Total
|-
|Bosnia and Herzegovina|| 164,000 || - || 64,000 || 75,000 || 9,000 || 4,000 || 316,000
|-
|Montenegro || 6,000 || 20,000 || 1,000 || 4,000 || - || 6,000 || 37,000
|-
|Croatia || 131,000 || - || 106,000 || 2,000 || 10,000 || 22,000 || 271,000
|-
|Kosovo || 3,000 || - || 1,000 || 2,000 || - || 17,000 || 23,000
|-
|Macedonia || 6,000 || - || - || 4,000 || - || 7,000 || 17,000
|-
|Slovenia || - || - || - || - || - || 33,000 || 33,000
|-
|Serbia || 142,000 || - || - || 13,000 || 7,000 || 5,000 || 167,000
|-
|Vojvodina || 45,000 || - || 6,000 || - || 7,000 || 25,000 || 83,000
|-
|Abroad || 33,000 || - || 14,000 || 3,000 || 24,000 || 6,000 || 80,000
|-
! Total || 530,000 || 20,000 || 192,000 || 103,000 || 57,000 || 125,000 || 1,027,000
|}


Of those, the vast majority, 623,000 people, died in the Independent State of Croatia - 295,000 in Croatia itself, and 328,000 in ] (both part of the ] and under the ] regime at the time), and another 36,000 from those countries died abroad. According to ethnicity and/or religion as needed, Žerjavić provided the following estimates of victims in the Independent State of Croatia, for both the war and immediate post-war period:{{sfn|Žerjavić|1993|p=}}<ref>{{cite web|url=http://starisajt.nspm.rs/Debate/2006_POM_nikolic_zrtve111.htm|title=Komentari|website=Starisajt.nspm.rs|access-date=19 October 2016|language=hr}}</ref>
: ''"Due to differing views and lack of documentation, estimates for the number of Serbian victims in Croatia range widely, from 25,000 to more than one million. The estimated number of Serbs killed in Jasenovac ranges from 25,000 to 700,000. The most reliable figures place the number of Serbs killed by the Ustaša between 330,000 and 390,000, with 45,000 to 52,000 Serbs murdered in Jasenovac."''


:*322,000 Serbs
The ] and ] on the other side did not accept Žerjavić estimates .
:*192,000 Croats
:*77,000 Muslims
:*26,000 Jews
:*16,000 Roma


His claims include 153,000 civilian victims in Croatia and 174,000 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and of that, 85,000 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina and 48,000 from Croatia died in ]s.{{sfn|Geiger|2011|p=741}} As for the total casualties in ], he estimated that 85,000 were killed, of which 45–52,000 were Serbs, 13,000 were Jews, 10,000 were Roma, 10,000 were Croats and 2,000 were Muslims.{{sfn|Geiger|2011|p=728}}


With regard to ], Žerjavić's calculation ended with a total of 197,000 Serbian civilian victims within the borders of the ]: 50,000 at Jasenovac concentration camp, 25,000 of typhoid, 45,000 killed by the Germans, 15,000 killed by Italians, 34,000 civilians killed in battles between Ustaše, ] and ], 28,000 killed in prisons, pits and other camps, etc. Another 125,000 Serbs inside the ] were killed as combatants, raising the total to 322,000.{{sfn|Žerjavić|1993|p=}}


Regarding the ], when soldiers and civilians associated with the NDH and other Axis forces were killed by the Yugoslav Partisans, Žerjavić estimated that around 45–55,000 Croats and Bosniaks, 8-10,000 Slovenes, and around 2,000 Serbs and Montenegrins were killed.{{sfn|Geiger|2012|p=94}}
==Žerjavić's opinions and statements==


===Žerjavić's opinions and statements===
His investigations and statistical analysis aim to show that the original number of lives lost on all sides in the ] was considerably exaggerated for the sake of ] claims by the ] government shortly after the war. His primary intent was to demonstrate with these findings that there should be no argument for further bloodshed between ] and ] based on these exaggerated figures, that much of the revenge had already occurred between Croats and Serbs during the war, and that Croats and Serbs could continue to live together peacefully, as they had for centuries.
{{POV section|date=November 2015}}
Žerjavić's investigations and statistical analyses, like others such as Kočović's examinations, aim to show that the original number of lives lost on all sides during ] in Yugoslavia was considerably exaggerated, partly due to the ].<ref>{{cite book |last1=Danchev |first1=Alex |last2=Halverson |first2=Thomas |title=International Perspectives on the Yugoslav Conflict |date=2016 |publisher=Springer |isbn=978-1-34924-541-3 |page=133 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JhW_DAAAQBAJ&pg=PA133}}</ref>


An excerpt from Žerjavić's book ''Manipulations with WW2 victims in Yugoslavia'' reads:{{sfn|Žerjavić|1993|p=33}}
Žerjavić also stated that the majority of Croats and Serbs fought side by side against the ], as did he, in ]'s partisan army.
{{quote|One should also believe that the Serbs in Croatia, who have lived in these territories for more than four centuries, will realize that they are not endangered in a community with Croats. They especially should not be afraid that any form of genocide could occur, because they themselves know best that during the Second World War a large number of Croats stood at their defense, and that they, along with Serbians, contributed to the National Liberation War, and even prevented a larger number of victims.


It should be mentioned that the regular Croatian Army (Domobrani) also helped with their passive role and even by logistic support to the partisan units. engeance for the crimes committed by the Ustaše was executed immediately after the war, with ], when many innocent opponents of the Communist regime were also killed. Therefore, enacting vengeance against the Croats, with whom the Serbs in Croatia have peacefully lived for the past 45 years, could not be excused, neither morally nor politically. After the artificially created euphoria is over, and once peace is established, all reasonable and objective Serbs will -- I strongly believe -- realize that their common life with Croats, in a state with a prosperous economic future, is the most acceptable solution for them.}}
<u>Excerpt from Žerjavić's book "Manipulations with WW2 victims in Yugoslavia":</u>


===Independent verification ===
: ''“One should also believe that the Serbians in Croatia, who have lived in these territories for more than four centuries, will realize that they are not endangered in a community with Croatians. They especially should not be afraid that any form of genocide could occur, because they themselves know best that during the Second World War a large number of Croatians stood at their defense, and that they, along with Serbians, contributed to the National Liberation War, and even prevented a larger number of victims. It should be mentioned that the regular Croatian Army (Domobrani) also helped with their passive role and even by logistic support to the partisan units.''
====Positive====
Some international agencies and experts have accepted Žerjavić's (and almost equal data achieved by Serbian statistician Bogoljub Kočović) calculations as the most reliable data on war losses in Yugoslavia during ]. A U.S. Census report from 1954 states: "Details of the (Yugoslav) 1948 census were kept secret but, in negotiations with Germany, it became apparent that the real figure of the dead was about one million. An American study in 1954 calculated 1,067,000."<ref>Mayers, Paul and Campbell, Arthur; ''The Population of Yugoslavia''; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington D.C., 1954; p. 23</ref>


Following Tito's death in 1980, the 1948 census results became available for comparison with those of 1931. Allowances had to be made for the birth rates of the different communities and for emigration. Research was pioneered by Professor Kočović, a Serb living in the West, whose findings were published in January 1985. He assessed the number of dead as 1,014,000. Later that year a ] Conference heard that the figure was 1,100,000.<ref>At the conference of the Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences, held on 6 June 1985, Dr Dusan Breznik stated that about 1,100,000 people were killed in the war.</ref>
: ''It should be noted that vengeance for the crimes committed by the Ustaše was executed immediately after the war, with the terrible massacres at ] in ] and during the so-called Way of the Cross (Death Marches), when many innocent opponents of the Communist regime were also killed. Therefore, enacting vengeance against the Croatians, with whom the Serbians in Croatia have peacefully lived for the past 45 years, could not be excused, neither morally nor politically.''


Žerjavić's and Kočović's calculations of war losses in Yugoslavia during ] were accepted by the ], together with other typically higher estimates:
: ''After the artificially created euphoria is over, and once peace is established, all reasonable and objective Serbians will -- I strongly believe -- realize that their common life with Croatians, in a state with a prosperous economic future, is the most acceptable solution for them.“''


<blockquote>Due to differing views and lack of documentation, estimates for the number of Serbian victims in Croatia range widely, from 25,000 to more than one million. The estimated number of Serbs killed in Jasenovac ranges from 25,000 to 700,000. The most reliable figures place the number of Serbs killed by the Ustaša between 330,000 and 390,000, with 45,000 to 52,000 Serbs murdered in Jasenovac.<ref>, ushmm.org; accessed 8 November 2015.</ref></blockquote>
:: - Vladimir Žerjavić, Zagreb, April 27, 1992


Concerning Žerjavić's calculations on the number of casualties linked to the Bleiburg repatriations, historian ] writes that it is "difficult to speak of the overall number" and that "the only option is to rely on the research by Vladimir Žerjavić, which has up to now shown itself to be the most reliable in overall estimates".<ref name="Zimmermann" />
==Controversy==
{{NPOV}}


<!-- Professor Vladeta Vučković, Serbian author of the official 1946 Yugoslav document, agrees with Žerjavić's and Kočović's estimates. She stated {{When|date=November 2015}} that he {{Who|date=November 2015}} had calculated a demographic loss of 1,700,000, and that later that number was interpreted as actual number of victims and presented by Yugoslav delegation on peace conference later that year in Paris.<ref>Nikolić, Goran. , nspm.rs; accessed 8 November 2015.{{in lang|sr}}</ref>
Critics consider his work to have been politically motivated, with the aim of downplaying nationalist ] atrocities during the war, such as at the ]. Some go so far to state he was a ].
::::: YEAH THIS MAKES NO SENSE -- How could she agree with both "agrees Žerjavić's and Kočović's estimates" when they are not entirely in agreement? And who is "he" who calculated a demographic loss of 1,700,000", more than 600,000 more than either calculation shown above.-->
====Negative====
Some Serb critics of Žerjavić consider his work to have been politically motivated, with the aim of downplaying Croatian nationalist atrocities during the war, such as at Jasenovac.


Critics point out that Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia lived in rural areas and therefore had much higher growth rate then others. Zerjavic used growth rate for Serbs in Bosnia as 1.1% (as for all nations together), while acctual growth rate was 2.4% (1921-1931) and 3.5% (1949-1953). He underestimated growth rate of Serbs in order to decrease Serbs death count, according to critics. Critics point out that Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia lived in rural areas and therefore had a much higher growth rate than others.{{clarify|date=September 2016}} Žerjavić used growth rates for Serbs in Bosnia as 1.1% (as for all nations together), while actual growth rate was 2.4% (1921–31) and 3.5% (1949–53). They posit he intentionally underestimated growth rate of Serbs to decrease the Serb death count, according to critics.{{citation needed|date=December 2016}} Some, like Đorđević, claimed that Serbian losses were in fact 1.6 million, a number which goes in other direction compared to the official estimates that Žerjavić denied. The higher numbers was opposed by Bogoljub Kočović's book,<!--name of book?--> published in 1997, which tries to refute Đorđević's efforts to "reinstate" the "great numbers" victims figures dominant in Communist Yugoslavia.<ref>{{cite news|last=Glišić|first=Venceslav|url=http://www.knjigainfo.com/index.php?gde=@http%3A//www.knjigainfo.com/pls/sasa/bip.text%3Ftid%3D38347@|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130801090050/http://www.knjigainfo.com/index.php?gde=%40http%3A%2F%2Fwww.knjigainfo.com%2Fpls%2Fsasa%2Fbip.text%3Ftid%3D38347%40|archive-date=1 August 2013|title=Žrtve licitiranja - Sahrana jednog mita, Bogoljub Kočović|website=knjigainfo.com|publisher=]|date=12 January 2006|url-status=dead|language=sr}}</ref>


The ] and ] still use the old estimates given by the Yugoslav authorities.{{cn|date=November 2019}} The ] cites the Yad Vashem document, the '']''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://motlc.learningcenter.wiesenthal.org/pages/t034/t03448.html|title=Blackbaud Internet Solutions - Online Events and Marketing Solutions|website=Motlc.learningcenter.wiesenthal.org|date=2 April 2013|access-date=19 October 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060512122324/http://motlc.learningcenter.wiesenthal.org/pages/t034/t03448.html|archive-date=12 May 2006|url-status=dead}}</ref> In a separate entry on the Ustasha movement in general, however, Yad Vashem cites the extermination of "over 500,000" Serbs in the entire NDH.<ref>{{cite web |title=Ustasa |url=https://www.yadvashem.org/odot_pdf/Microsoft%20Word%20-%205904.pdf |publisher=Yad Vashem}}</ref>
Proponents point out that ] proper had circa 650,000 Serb inhabitants in 1941 &mdash; virtually the same percentage of Croatia's population as in the first post-war census. In 1931, there were 3,430,270 people in Croatia, of which around 633,000 Serbs (~18.5%). In 1948, there were 3,779,858 inhabitants, of which the Serbs numbered 543,795 (14.38%).


Regarding Žerjavić's research on World War Two casualties, Croatian historian Vladimir Geiger notes that individual researchers who assert the inevitability of using identification of casualties and fatalities by individual names have raised serious objections to Žerjavić's calculations/estimates of human losses by using standard statistical methods and consolidation of data from various sources, pointing out that such an approach is insufficient and unreliable in determining the number and character of casualties and fatalities, as well as the affiliation of the perpetrators of the crimes.{{sfn|Geiger|2012|p=103}}
Had genocide of such monstrous proportions as those for whom Žerjavić is a ''bete noire'' claim really happened, this would certainly have left a vast and all-too-visible hole in the country's demographics. No such thing, as other researchers and comparison of official censa in 1931 and 1948 have shown.


==Žerjavić's calculations regarding the Bosnian war==
Also &mdash; had this martyrological numerology been at least partially true, there wouldn't have been Serbs left to start their ] "spontaneous" rebellion during which they had temporarily carved out and seceded 1/4 of Croatia's territory. This crucial point, that the exaggeration of Serbian death toll in NDH is the cornerstone for the post-1945 variant of ]n drive for expansion is frequently overlooked: a very puzzling thing, since this distorted self-image of a people victimized (especially by Croats) led to hostility and aggression on almost all neighboring nations that constituted Communist Yugoslavia, particularly ] and ]. This state of mind was intentionally nourished and intensified in the concentrated effort of the vast majority of Serbian intelligentsia to create a ] on the ruins of a destroyed ].
According to Žerjavić's calculations, there were 215,000 victims in ] in the ] of 1992–95, of which 160,000 were ], 30,000 ]s and 25,000 ]s.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Kennedy |first1=Michael D. |title=Cultural Formations of Postcommunism: Emancipation, Transition, Nation, and War |date=2002 |publisher=University of Minnesota Press |isbn=978-0-81663-857-4 |page=252 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=MS3kMFAyLZ0C&pg=PA252}}</ref> However, according to newer research done by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (]), the number of people killed in the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina was around 102,000: 69.24% (70,625) Bosniaks, 25.35% (25,857) Serbs, and 5.33% (5,437) Croats.<ref name=Republic>Nilsen, Av Kjell Arild. "Death toll in Bosnian war was 102,000"; Norwegian News Agency; accessed 10 September 2016.</ref>


==References==
According to investigations of Vladimir Zerjavic overall there are 220,000 victims in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 92-95 war of which 160,000 Muslims, 30,000 Croasts and 25.000 Serbs ].
{{Reflist}}
The number of people killed in the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina was around 102,000, according to research done by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).
Among killed it was found 69.24% Muslims, 25.35% Serbs and 5.33% Croats.


===Sources===
==External links==
*{{cite book |last1=Žerjavić |first1=Vladimir |title=Yugoslavia-manipulations with the number of Second World War victims |date=1993 |publisher=Croatian Information Centre |isbn=978-0-91981-732-6 }}
*
*{{cite journal|last=Geiger|first=Vladimir|title=Ljudski gubici Hrvatske u Drugom svjetskom ratu koje su prouzročili "okupatori i njihovi pomagači" Brojidbeni pokazatelji (procjene, izračuni, popisi)|journal=Journal of Contemporary History|volume=43|issue=3|date=2011|pages=699–749|url=https://hrcak.srce.hr/76758?lang=en}}
*
*{{cite journal|last=Geiger|first=Vladimir|title=Human losses of Croats in World War II and the immediate post-war period caused by the Chetniks (Yugoslav Army in the Fatherland) and the Partizans (People's Liberation Army and the partizan detachment of Yugoslavia/Yugoslav Army) and the Yugoslav Communist authoritities. Numerical indicators|journal=Review of Croatian History|volume=VIII|issue=1|date=2012|pages=77–121|url=https://hrcak.srce.hr/103223?lang=en}}
*


==External links==
]
*, srce.hr; accessed 10 November 2015.
]
*, knjizara.com; accessed 10 November 2015. {{in lang|sr}}
]
*; accessed 10 November 2015. {{in lang|bs}}


{{Authority control}}
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Latest revision as of 18:34, 10 September 2024

Croatian economist and demographer
Vladimir Žerjavić
Born(1912-08-02)2 August 1912
Croatia-Slavonia, Austria-Hungary
(now Croatia)
Died5 September 2001(2001-09-05) (aged 89)
Zagreb, Croatia
NationalityAustro-Hungarian, Yugoslav, Croatian
Alma materUniversity of Zagreb
Occupation(s)Economist, demographer, U.N. adviser

Vladimir Žerjavić (2 August 1912 – 5 September 2001) was a Croatian economist and demographer who published a series of historical articles and books during the 1980s and 1990s on demographic losses in Yugoslavia during World War II and of Axis forces and civilians in the Bleiburg repatriations shortly after the capitulation of Germany. From 1964 to 1982, he worked as an adviser for industrial development in the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

Early life

Žerjavić was born in Križ, Zagreb County and graduated at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Zagreb. He was one of four siblings, having two sisters, Viktorija (1908–1993) and Darinka (1921–2009) and a brother, Slavko. After 1934 he worked in the private sector, and after 1945 in various institutions of SFR Yugoslavia. Between 1958 and 1982 he worked abroad as an industrial consultant. In 1964 he joined the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and later consulted the governments of various nations.

Žerjavić's calculations regarding World War II in Yugoslavia

In the 1980s Žerjavić conducted a research on demographic losses in Yugoslavia during World War II, at about the same time as Bogoljub Kočović, a Serb statistician. Žerjavić's calculations of total victims in Yugoslavia are based on looking at pre- and post-war censuses. Zerjavić asserted that Yugoslavia lost a total 1,027,000 people in World War II.

Victims by nationality comparison
Nationality 1964 list Kočović Žerjavić
Serbs 346,740 487,000 530,000
Croats 83,257 207,000 192,000
Slovenes 42,027 32,000 42,000
Montenegrins 16,276 50,000 20,000
Macedonians 6,724 7,000 6,000
Muslims 32,300 86,000 103,000
Other Slavs – 12,000 7,000
Albanians 3,241 6,000 18,000
Jews 45,000 60,000 57,000
Gypsies – 27,000 18,000
Germans – 26,000 28,000
Hungarians 2,680 – –
Slovaks 1,160 – –
Turks 686 – –
Others – 14,000 6,000
Unknown 16,202 – –
Total 597,323 1,014,000 1,027,000
Victims by country and nationality
Serbs Montenegrins Croats Muslims Jews Others Total
Bosnia and Herzegovina 164,000 - 64,000 75,000 9,000 4,000 316,000
Montenegro 6,000 20,000 1,000 4,000 - 6,000 37,000
Croatia 131,000 - 106,000 2,000 10,000 22,000 271,000
Kosovo 3,000 - 1,000 2,000 - 17,000 23,000
Macedonia 6,000 - - 4,000 - 7,000 17,000
Slovenia - - - - - 33,000 33,000
Serbia 142,000 - - 13,000 7,000 5,000 167,000
Vojvodina 45,000 - 6,000 - 7,000 25,000 83,000
Abroad 33,000 - 14,000 3,000 24,000 6,000 80,000
Total 530,000 20,000 192,000 103,000 57,000 125,000 1,027,000

Of those, the vast majority, 623,000 people, died in the Independent State of Croatia - 295,000 in Croatia itself, and 328,000 in Bosnia and Herzegovina (both part of the Independent State of Croatia and under the Ustaše regime at the time), and another 36,000 from those countries died abroad. According to ethnicity and/or religion as needed, Žerjavić provided the following estimates of victims in the Independent State of Croatia, for both the war and immediate post-war period:

  • 322,000 Serbs
  • 192,000 Croats
  • 77,000 Muslims
  • 26,000 Jews
  • 16,000 Roma

His claims include 153,000 civilian victims in Croatia and 174,000 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and of that, 85,000 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina and 48,000 from Croatia died in concentration camps. As for the total casualties in Jasenovac concentration camp, he estimated that 85,000 were killed, of which 45–52,000 were Serbs, 13,000 were Jews, 10,000 were Roma, 10,000 were Croats and 2,000 were Muslims.

With regard to Serbs, Žerjavić's calculation ended with a total of 197,000 Serbian civilian victims within the borders of the Independent State of Croatia: 50,000 at Jasenovac concentration camp, 25,000 of typhoid, 45,000 killed by the Germans, 15,000 killed by Italians, 34,000 civilians killed in battles between Ustaše, Chetniks and Partisans, 28,000 killed in prisons, pits and other camps, etc. Another 125,000 Serbs inside the Independent State of Croatia were killed as combatants, raising the total to 322,000.

Regarding the Yugoslav Partisan pursuit of Nazi collaborators, when soldiers and civilians associated with the NDH and other Axis forces were killed by the Yugoslav Partisans, Žerjavić estimated that around 45–55,000 Croats and Bosniaks, 8-10,000 Slovenes, and around 2,000 Serbs and Montenegrins were killed.

Žerjavić's opinions and statements

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Žerjavić's investigations and statistical analyses, like others such as Kočović's examinations, aim to show that the original number of lives lost on all sides during World War II in Yugoslavia was considerably exaggerated, partly due to the war reparations claims by the Yugoslav government shortly after the war.

An excerpt from Žerjavić's book Manipulations with WW2 victims in Yugoslavia reads:

One should also believe that the Serbs in Croatia, who have lived in these territories for more than four centuries, will realize that they are not endangered in a community with Croats. They especially should not be afraid that any form of genocide could occur, because they themselves know best that during the Second World War a large number of Croats stood at their defense, and that they, along with Serbians, contributed to the National Liberation War, and even prevented a larger number of victims. It should be mentioned that the regular Croatian Army (Domobrani) also helped with their passive role and even by logistic support to the partisan units. engeance for the crimes committed by the Ustaše was executed immediately after the war, with the terrible massacres at Bleiburg and during the so-called Way of the Cross (Death Marches), when many innocent opponents of the Communist regime were also killed. Therefore, enacting vengeance against the Croats, with whom the Serbs in Croatia have peacefully lived for the past 45 years, could not be excused, neither morally nor politically. After the artificially created euphoria is over, and once peace is established, all reasonable and objective Serbs will -- I strongly believe -- realize that their common life with Croats, in a state with a prosperous economic future, is the most acceptable solution for them.

Independent verification

Positive

Some international agencies and experts have accepted Žerjavić's (and almost equal data achieved by Serbian statistician Bogoljub Kočović) calculations as the most reliable data on war losses in Yugoslavia during World War II. A U.S. Census report from 1954 states: "Details of the (Yugoslav) 1948 census were kept secret but, in negotiations with Germany, it became apparent that the real figure of the dead was about one million. An American study in 1954 calculated 1,067,000."

Following Tito's death in 1980, the 1948 census results became available for comparison with those of 1931. Allowances had to be made for the birth rates of the different communities and for emigration. Research was pioneered by Professor Kočović, a Serb living in the West, whose findings were published in January 1985. He assessed the number of dead as 1,014,000. Later that year a Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts Conference heard that the figure was 1,100,000.

Žerjavić's and Kočović's calculations of war losses in Yugoslavia during World War II were accepted by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, together with other typically higher estimates:

Due to differing views and lack of documentation, estimates for the number of Serbian victims in Croatia range widely, from 25,000 to more than one million. The estimated number of Serbs killed in Jasenovac ranges from 25,000 to 700,000. The most reliable figures place the number of Serbs killed by the Ustaša between 330,000 and 390,000, with 45,000 to 52,000 Serbs murdered in Jasenovac.

Concerning Žerjavić's calculations on the number of casualties linked to the Bleiburg repatriations, historian Ivo Goldstein writes that it is "difficult to speak of the overall number" and that "the only option is to rely on the research by Vladimir Žerjavić, which has up to now shown itself to be the most reliable in overall estimates".

Negative

Some Serb critics of Žerjavić consider his work to have been politically motivated, with the aim of downplaying Croatian nationalist atrocities during the war, such as at Jasenovac.

Critics point out that Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia lived in rural areas and therefore had a much higher growth rate than others. Žerjavić used growth rates for Serbs in Bosnia as 1.1% (as for all nations together), while actual growth rate was 2.4% (1921–31) and 3.5% (1949–53). They posit he intentionally underestimated growth rate of Serbs to decrease the Serb death count, according to critics. Some, like Đorđević, claimed that Serbian losses were in fact 1.6 million, a number which goes in other direction compared to the official estimates that Žerjavić denied. The higher numbers was opposed by Bogoljub Kočović's book, published in 1997, which tries to refute Đorđević's efforts to "reinstate" the "great numbers" victims figures dominant in Communist Yugoslavia.

The Simon Wiesenthal Center and Yad Vashem still use the old estimates given by the Yugoslav authorities. The Simon Wiesenthal Center cites the Yad Vashem document, the Encyclopedia of the Holocaust. In a separate entry on the Ustasha movement in general, however, Yad Vashem cites the extermination of "over 500,000" Serbs in the entire NDH.

Regarding Žerjavić's research on World War Two casualties, Croatian historian Vladimir Geiger notes that individual researchers who assert the inevitability of using identification of casualties and fatalities by individual names have raised serious objections to Žerjavić's calculations/estimates of human losses by using standard statistical methods and consolidation of data from various sources, pointing out that such an approach is insufficient and unreliable in determining the number and character of casualties and fatalities, as well as the affiliation of the perpetrators of the crimes.

Žerjavić's calculations regarding the Bosnian war

According to Žerjavić's calculations, there were 215,000 victims in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Bosnian war of 1992–95, of which 160,000 were Bosniaks, 30,000 Croats and 25,000 Serbs. However, according to newer research done by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), the number of people killed in the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina was around 102,000: 69.24% (70,625) Bosniaks, 25.35% (25,857) Serbs, and 5.33% (5,437) Croats.

References

  1. ^ "Žerjavić, Vladimir" (in Croatian). enciklopedija.hr. Retrieved 12 December 2016.
  2. Goldstein, Ivo; Lengel-Krizman, Narcisa (1997). Anti-semitism, Holocaust, anti-Fascism. Jewish Community. p. 255. ISBN 978-9-53968-361-8. Vladimir Žerjavić (1913), economist. UN expert from 1964, advisor for industrial development in the UN Economic Commission for Africa, advisor of some African, Asian and Central American governments. From 1982 engaged in analysing population changes in Yugoslavia.
  3. ^ Zimmermann, Tanja (2014). Balkan memories: Media constructions of national and transnational history. Transcript Verlag. p. 195. ISBN 978-3-83941-712-6.
  4. Geiger 2011, p. 714.
  5. ^ Žerjavić 1993.
  6. "Komentari". Starisajt.nspm.rs (in Croatian). Retrieved 19 October 2016.
  7. Geiger 2011, p. 741.
  8. Geiger 2011, p. 728.
  9. Geiger 2012, p. 94.
  10. Danchev, Alex; Halverson, Thomas (2016). International Perspectives on the Yugoslav Conflict. Springer. p. 133. ISBN 978-1-34924-541-3.
  11. Žerjavić 1993, p. 33.
  12. Mayers, Paul and Campbell, Arthur; The Population of Yugoslavia; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington D.C., 1954; p. 23
  13. At the conference of the Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences, held on 6 June 1985, Dr Dusan Breznik stated that about 1,100,000 people were killed in the war.
  14. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, ushmm.org; accessed 8 November 2015.
  15. Glišić, Venceslav (12 January 2006). "Žrtve licitiranja - Sahrana jednog mita, Bogoljub Kočović". knjigainfo.com (in Serbian). NIN. Archived from the original on 1 August 2013.
  16. "Blackbaud Internet Solutions - Online Events and Marketing Solutions". Motlc.learningcenter.wiesenthal.org. 2 April 2013. Archived from the original on 12 May 2006. Retrieved 19 October 2016.
  17. "Ustasa" (PDF). Yad Vashem.
  18. Geiger 2012, p. 103.
  19. Kennedy, Michael D. (2002). Cultural Formations of Postcommunism: Emancipation, Transition, Nation, and War. University of Minnesota Press. p. 252. ISBN 978-0-81663-857-4.
  20. Nilsen, Av Kjell Arild. "Death toll in Bosnian war was 102,000"; Norwegian News Agency; accessed 10 September 2016.

Sources

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