Talk:2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season: Difference between revisions

Browse history interactively ← Previous edit Next edit →Content deleted Content addedVisual WikitextInline

Revision as of 06:50, 23 March 2021 editHurricaneEdgar (talk \| contribs)Extended confirmed users53,349 editsNo edit summaryTag: Reverted← Previous edit		Revision as of 06:53, 23 March 2021 edit undoLowercase sigmabot III (talk \| contribs)Bots, Template editors2,293,063 editsm Archiving 8 discussion(s) to Talk:2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season/Archive 3, Talk:2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season/Archive 2) (botTag: RevertedNext edit →
Line 12:		Line 12:
	\|archiveheader = {{talk archive navigation}}		\|archiveheader = {{talk archive navigation}}
	\|maxarchivesize = 20K		\|maxarchivesize = 20K
	\|counter = 2		\|counter = 3
	\|minthreadsleft = 1		\|minthreadsleft = 1
	\|minthreadstoarchive = 1		\|minthreadstoarchive = 1
Line 88:		Line 88:
	:		:
	{{clear}}		{{clear}}

	== About unnumbered systems ==

	With unnumbered systems, or ones mentioned in the ITCZ outlooks, La Reunion has determined that they do no count towards the season activity. Only systems with RMSC advisories do. See here .
	{{Quote box
	\| quote = The ITCZ daily outlook can not be consider as a warning advisory. It is only a daily diagnose of the state of the SWIO tropics and a probability of cyclogenesis.
	We usually issue regular numbered warnings over our area of responsibility for tropical system that as reached Maximum Winds at 25kt (Tropical Disturbance Stage), sometimes at earlier stage, if needed.
	If an area of disturbed weather is mentioned but not numbered within the ITCZ daily outlook, it can therefore not be consider as a storm for the season.
	The exemple you mentioned can not consequently be consider as the first storm of the 2014/2015 South West Indian Ocean Cyclonic Season.
	The first system of the 2014/2015 season is the currently monitored ADJALI.
	Regards
	:—Philippe Garnier.
	\| width =
	\| align = left
	\| quoted = 1
	}}
	] (]) 20:08, 21 December 2020 (UTC)

	== Chalane Draft ==

	Since Chalane is threatening impacts in ], ], and ], I have made a ] for the storm.] (]) 00:15, 25 December 2020 (UTC)

	Whoops the ] is here, sorry lol] (]) 00:16, 25 December 2020 (UTC)

	== Danilo Dead or Alive? ==
	Will you consider Severe Tropical Storm Danilo as dead/dissipated in January 10 or still alive/active? <span style="font-family: Georgia; color:#00aeff;">'''Beraniladri19'''</span>] (<span style="font-size:85%;">]</span>) (<span style="font-size:85%;">]</span>) 06:58, 11 January 2021 (UTC)
	:{{re\|Beraniladri19}} Still Active Per MFR <span style="font-family: Georgia; background-color: maroon; padding: 2px 3px 1px 3px;">] ]</span> 10:55, 11 January 2021 (UTC)
	::{{ping\|HurricaneEdgar}} But https://zoom.earth/ is saying that it is dissipated. <span style="font-family: Georgia; color:#00aeff;">'''Beraniladri19'''</span>] (<span style="font-size:85%;">]</span>) (<span style="font-size:85%;">]</span>) 12:03, 11 January 2021 (UTC)
	::{{ping\|Beraniladri19}} according to MFR Bulletin still active <span style="font-family: Georgia; background-color: maroon; padding: 2px 3px 1px 3px;">] ]</span> 12:17, 11 January 2021 (UTC)
	:::{{ping\|Beraniladri19\|HurricaneEdgar}} Zoom Earth is based on the JTWC which is superseded by data from RSMC La Reunion, however, upon further analysis of the Reunion advisory I realsied that this is where things get tricky. RSMC La Reunion states that the system is a remnant low and that they would not normally be in advisory still, however, the system is posing a threat to the Mascarene Islands. So its basically a post tropical cyclone.] (]) 14:46, 11 January 2021 (UTC)
	:{{Ping\|Jason Rees}} Yeah that's the problem. Remnant low is kind of(ish) a post tropical cyclone which therefore means as dead/inactive. <span style="font-family: Georgia; color:#00aeff;">'''Beraniladri19'''</span>] (<span style="font-size:85%;">]</span>) (<span style="font-size:85%;">]</span>) 15:37, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

	== Eloise Intense Tropical Cyclone? ==
	Would it be considered that Eloise is an intense tropical cyclone? A few sources say that peak winds were between 100 and 120 mph, so therefore I think that it should be deemed an intense tropical cyclone. Kind of the same way that ] and ] was as well. For both of those some sources deemed them intense. But others no. It's kinda the same here with Eloise. ] (]) 13:52, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

	:{{re\|AwesomeHurricaneBoss}} <s>that is fake</s> . cyclone eloise is tropical cyclone not intense tropical cyclone pls see in the <span style="font-family: Georgia; background-color: maroon; padding: 2px 3px 1px 3px;">] ]</span> 14:05, 27 January 2021 (UTC)
	::{{ping\|HurricaneEdgar}} Fake is the wrong word. For what its worth {{ping\|AwesomeHurricaneBoss}} we take our classifications from Meteo France in Reunion estimated the 10-min winds at , which makes it a tropical cyclone on their scale. For it to have been rated as an intense tropical scale, MFR would need to estimate 10-min winds estimated at between 90 kts and 120kts. 120 kts or more then MFR would have classified it as a very intense tropical cyclone.] (]) 14:43, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

	:{{re\|Jason Rees}} Oh, okay, sorry I misunderstood! ] (]) 15:39, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

	::{{re\|AwesomeHurricaneBoss}} You cannot take Force thirteen as a source. <span style="color:#FF011A;">Dam222</span> ] (]) 16:16, 27 January 2021 (UTC)
	since when did they mention force thirteen?! This is getting ANNOYING. People keep assuming people who make mistakes is in force thirteen. Stop trying to put them down when you have no evidence for these FALSE CLAIMS. <!-- Template:Unsigned IP --><small class="autosigned">— Preceding ] comment added by ] (]) 11:19, 10 February 2021 (UTC)</small> <!--Autosigned by SineBot-->

	== Reminder ==

	{{ping\|Hurricaneboy23}} and {{ping\|Gummycow}}, just a friendly reminder to not forget to archive your sources. Its quite easy, just use archive.is by entering in the source’s url, and it will generate an archived copy so you can add it into the article. Thanks for expanding Faraji!] (]) 01:56, 6 February 2021 (UTC)
	: MFR already archives their advisories without the use of third-party websites. However thanks for the advice (I use the for JWTC and FMS advisories already). <span style="color:blue">Hurricaneboy23</span> ] * ] 02:50, 6 February 2021 (UTC)
	: Oh thanks. I usually use JTWC as a source, and it doesn't keep an archive. Thanks, it'll really help.]]] 05:30, 6 February 2021 (UTC)

	{{ping\|Hurricaneboy23}}, yep I like how MFR, NHC, and IMD Archive their advisories, but the JTWC doesn’t. Also I wouldn't recommend the Wayback Machine since it’s now starting to overwrite archives, as seen by other editors. Thanks for your hard work!] (]) 17:01, 6 February 2021 (UTC)

	== Be Ready ==

	Hello everybody working very hard to edit and update this page. We’re currently working on updating and maintaining the section for Faraji. A big thanks to everybody who has worked hard on this section, it is very well-written. Also thanks for being sure to archive your sources using either the Wayback Machine or Archive.is. Although, I prefer the latter due to the Wayback Machine beginning to overwrite some archives, as noticed by other editors.

	Recently global forecasting models have been hinting at a cyclone forming in the ] around this upcoming weekend. Some models have this system meandering close to ], dropping several inches of rainfall. We need to start looking out for formation warnings from the MFR and JTWC on this system in the coming days. Also be sure to archive anything from the JTWC. If needed, I may start a draft for this storm, if it does form. Just be sure to be on the lookout for anything.

	We have been doing a great job with this season (especially compared to other SWIO seasons). Keep up the good work everybody!] (]) 04:26, 7 February 2021 (UTC)

	== A potential subtropical depression? ==

	Umm, since yesterday, I'm seeing these over zoom.earth, and the ITCZ bulletins:

	10/02/2021:
	The monsoon flow, currently in place in the channel, will strengthen over the next few days due to
	the baroclinic interaction between a high altitude trough rising from the South-West and the low
	pressure area in the South of the channel.
	On the satellite imagery we can discern a vortex near the island of Europa. The automatic station
	present on this island, shows a decrease in pressure.
	The depression is shifting westward under the influence of the subtropical ridge, and is positioned at
	the end of Thursday under the through. The system remains under the axis of the trough on Friday,
	which could allow the formation of a warm core near the coast of Mozambique.
	On Saturday, the through shifted towards the North- West, and the system could then deepen into a
	moderate tropical storm on the western edge of the ridge that strengthens south of Mada (the
	displacement of the system limiting the negative effect of the north flow, and benefiting from a
	good polar divergence). As it tracks towards the SSO, it remains near the coast of Mozambique ,
	whose proximity could have a limiting effect, but on waters with particularly favourable potential.
	The location near or on the land of the low pressure zone should not allow its deepening but rather
	favour the intensification of the monsoon flow.
	This situation should leave at least winds close to 35 knots over a good part of the canal.
	Related to this situation, weather conditions will be disturbed during the week on the coastal regions
	of the Mozambique channel in Madagascar and Mozambique.

	11/02/2021:
	The center of the low pressure area lies near 23S/38E in a baroclinic environment. Convective
	activity is mainly driven by the upper forcing related to the cut-off. Last scatterometric data and
	model analysis suggest near gale force wind in the southern semi-circle far from the center of this
	cold core low.
	Within the next hours, this low should come closer and land on the Mozambican shore while
	isolating a warm core in both lower and upper levels thanks to a warm seclusion. Given this track,
	the proximity to the land is likely to prevent a sufficient tropical deepening for the low to reach
	tropical or subtropical storm status. If it stays more oversea, gale force wind may appear close to the
	center, thanks to the disappearance of the vertical shear under the trough, overnight or tomorrow.
	Next week, the risk may increase again with the arrival of the upper subtropical ridge and the
	increase of the polar low level convergence. Still, the presence of landmasses could also hinder the
	chance for deepening.
	In any case, this low pressure area is likely to maintain disturbed weather on a wide portion of the
	region. Heavy rains are particularly likely in the southern parts of Mozambique during the next five
	days.

	12/02/2021:
	The depression with the hybrid characteristics followed since yesterday made landfall over the coast
	of Mozambique late last night without having managed to develop a sustained and durable
	convective activity near its center. At 0900 UTC, the circulation, fairly well defined, is centered
	over land at about 22.1°S and 34.1°E about 230 km northwest of Inhambane.
	This low pressure system is expected to remain over land in the southern region of Mozambique for
	the next 2-3 days near the border with Zimbabwe and South Africa. During this period, fairly heavy
	rains of up to 50 mm in 24 hours and locally up to 100 mm are expected near the low pressure
	center and locally on the coastal areas between Inhambane and Maputo in the onshore easterly
	winds
	Next week, the arrival of a South to South-East trade wind surge behind a cold front, will increase
	the low levels convergence within a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern which will settle over the
	southern channel. The current overland depression may move back overseas within this MT or a
	new low may develop. In spite of the installation of an upper levels ridge, the presence of land, the
	arrival of dry subtropical air in connection with the trade winds surge, and the lack of consensus
	within the numerical guidance, still leave a low potential of tropical storm formation over the
	Southern Channel during the first part of the week.
	Whatever the scenario, this situation will continue to generate sustained disturbed weather over a
	large part of the southern channel. The risk of heavy rains and induced flooding is therefore marked
	for the southern regions of Mozambique as well as some areas of the west coast of Madagascar.

	The JTWC:
	THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
	NEAR 23.8S 37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 23.2E, APPROXIMATELY 92
	NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED
	AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION , GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH
	TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. RECENT ANIMATED
	MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 111901Z MHS NOAA 89H GHZ IMAGE
	DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST WRAPPING INTO
	THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE 111954Z ASCAT(METOP-C) PASS
	DEPICTS AN ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH 30-35KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLC
	AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
	OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
	SHEAR (VWS), BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
	SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
	INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC
	WINDFIELD, BEFORE ENCOUNTERING LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH
	MINIMAL OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE
	FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER
	TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
	SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
	PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
	DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
	HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

	Should we add it to the ''systems'' part of this article? <span style="font-family: Georgia; background-color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 1px 3px;">] ]</span> 13:36, 12 February 2021 (UTC)
	:{{re\|BrownieKing}} I also saw in Zoom Earth who also uses JTWC data that there's a invest designated as ''93S'' but unless RSMC La Reunion confirms, it shall not be added in the article. ]] ] 08:33, 13 February 2021 (UTC)

	Now I understand. Thanks! :) <span style="font-family: Georgia; background-color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 1px 3px;">] ]</span> 10:23, 13 February 2021 (UTC)

	== Faraji ==

	It says that Faraji had reached cat 5 on the saffr Simpson scale. Faraji was 145mph, cat 5 is 157 ] (]) 03:14, 14 February 2021 (UTC)

	Nvm, I'm an idiot ] (]) 03:14, 14 February 2021 (UTC)

Revision as of 06:53, 23 March 2021

This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season article.
This is not a forum for general discussion of the article's subject.

Put new text under old text. Click here to start a new topic.
New to Misplaced Pages? Welcome! Learn to edit; get help.

Article policies

Find sources: Google (books · news · scholar · free images · WP refs) · FENS · JSTOR · TWL

This page is not a forum for general discussion about 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season at the Reference desk.

This article has not yet been rated on Misplaced Pages's content assessment scale.
It is of interest to the following WikiProjects:

Current events

This article is part of WikiProject Current events, an attempt to expand and better organize information in articles related to current events. If you would like to participate in the project, visit the project page or contribute to the discussion.Current eventsWikipedia:WikiProject Current eventsTemplate:WikiProject Current eventsCurrent events

Please add the quality rating to the {{WikiProject banner shell}} template instead of this project banner. See WP:PIQA for details.

Africa: Madagascar / Mozambique / Zimbabwe Low‑importance

	Africa portal This article is within the scope of WikiProject Africa, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of Africa on Misplaced Pages. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.AfricaWikipedia:WikiProject AfricaTemplate:WikiProject AfricaAfrica
Low	This article has been rated as Low-importance on the project's importance scale.
	Madagascar portal This article is supported by WikiProject Madagascar.
	This article is supported by WikiProject Mozambique.
	This article is supported by WikiProject Zimbabwe.

Template:Hurricane

Other basin talkpages

2020: Atlantic - W. Pacific - Central and East Pacific - N. Indian - S. Hemisphere

2020-21: S. Hemisphere - SW. Indian - Australian - S. Pacific

2021: Atlantic - W. Pacific - Central and East. Pacific - N. Indian - S. Hemisphere

Archives

Index

Archive 1

This page has archives. Sections older than 5 days may be automatically archived by Lowercase sigmabot III when more than 1 section is present.

Location of advisories

English	French
Low pressure system	Système dépressionnaire faible
Zone of disturbed weather	Zone perturbée
Tropical disturbance	Perturbation tropicale
Tropical depression	Dépression tropicale
Moderate tropical storm	Tempête tropicale modérée
Severe tropical storm	Forte tempête tropicale
Tropical cyclone	Cyclone tropical
Intense tropical cyclone	Cyclone tropical intense
Very intense tropical cyclone	Cyclone tropical très intense
Subtropical depression	Dépression subtropicale
Post-tropical depression	Dépression post-tropicale
Extratropical depression	Dépression extratropicale
Dissipating	Dépression se dissipant Se dissipant
Overland depression Inland	Dépression sur terre
Filling up Low	Dépression se comblant
Remnant low	Dépression résiduelle

La Reunion

ITCZ advisories // Meteo.fr repository of WTIO2x & WTIO30

Technical Bulletins

Cyclone warnings: Metarea VIII // Metareas VII&VIII // Metarea VII (map)

JTWC:

Cyclone 1 \\ Cyclone 2 \\ Cyclone 3

Best track

Categories: