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Global warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

Global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations," which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes have probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a small cooling effect since 1950. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists is the only scientific society that officially rejects these conclusions, although it acknowledges that its skeptical viewpoint "is not supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members". A few individual scientists disagree with some of the main conclusions of the IPCC.

Climate models referenced by the IPCC project that global surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100. The range of values reflects the use of differing scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions and results of models with differences in climate sensitivity. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming and sea level rise are expected to continue for more than a millennium even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized. This reflects the large heat capacity of the oceans.

An increase in global temperatures is expected to cause other changes, including sea level rise, increased intensity of extreme weather events, and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation possibly resulting in more frequent floods and drought. Other effects include changes in agricultural yields, glacier retreat, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.

Remaining scientific uncertainties include the exact degree of climate change expected in the future, and how changes will vary from region to region around the globe. There is ongoing political and public debate on a world scale regarding what, if any, action should be taken to reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Terminology

The term "global warming" is a specific example of the broader term climate change, which can also refer to global cooling. In common usage the term refers to recent warming and implies a human influence. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) uses the term "climate change" for human-caused change, and "climate variability" for other changes. The term "anthropogenic climate change" is sometimes used when focusing on human-induced changes.

Causes

The climate system varies through natural, internal processes and in response to variations in external forcing factors including solar activity, volcanic emissions, variations in the earth's orbit (orbital forcing) and greenhouse gases. The detailed causes of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the scientific consensus identifies increased levels of greenhouse gases due to human activity as the main influence. This attribution is clearest for the most recent 50 years, for which the most detailed data are available. Contrasting with the scientific consensus, other hypotheses have been proposed to explain most of the observed increase in global temperatures. One such hypothesis is that the warming is caused by natural fluctuations in the climate or that warming is mainly a result of variations in solar radiation.

None of the effects of forcing are instantaneous. Due to the thermal inertia of the Earth's oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects, the Earth's current climate is not in equilibrium with the forcing imposed. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at present day levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warms a planet's atmosphere and surface.

Greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse effect, without which mean temperatures on Earth would be an estimated 30 °C (54 °F) lower so that Earth would be uninhabitable. Thus scientists do not "believe in" or "oppose" the greenhouse effect as such; rather, the debate concerns the net effect of the addition of greenhouse gases, while allowing for associated positive and negative feedback mechanisms.

On Earth, the major natural greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect (not including clouds); carbon dioxide (CO₂), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH₄), which causes 4–9%; and ozone, which causes 3–7%. Some other naturally occurring gases contribute very small fractions of the greenhouse effect; one of these, nitrous oxide (N₂O), is increasing in concentration owing to human activity such as agriculture. The atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ and CH₄ have increased by 31% and 149% respectively above pre-industrial levels since 1750. These levels are considerably higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. From less direct geological evidence it is believed that CO₂ values this high were last attained 20 million years ago. "About three-quarters of the anthropogenic man-made emissions of CO₂ to the atmosphere during the past 20 years are due to fossil fuel burning. The rest of the anthropogenic emissions are predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation."

The present atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is about 383 parts per million (ppm) by volume. Future CO₂ levels are expected to rise due to ongoing burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, natural developments, but may be ultimately limited by the availability of fossil fuels. The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO₂ scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100. Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach this level and continue emissions past 2100, if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively used.

Positive (reinforce) feedback effects such as the expected release of CH₄ from the melting of permafrost peat bogs in Siberia (possibly up to 70,000 million tonnes) may lead to significant additional sources of greenhouse gas emissions not included in climate models cited by the IPCC.

Feedbacks

The effects of forcing agents on the climate are complicated by various feedback processes.

One of the most pronounced feedback effects relates to the evaporation of water. In the case of warming by the addition of long-lived greenhouse gases such as CO₂, the initial warming by these gases will cause more water to be evaporated into the atmosphere. Since water vapor itself acts as a greenhouse gas, this causes still more warming; the warming causes more water vapor to be evaporated, and so forth until a new dynamic equilibrium concentration of water vapor is reached with a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO₂ alone. (Although this feedback process involves an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the air is warmer.) This feedback effect can only be reversed slowly as CO₂ has a long average atmospheric lifetime.

Feedback effects due to clouds are an area of ongoing research and debate. Seen from below, clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect. Seen from above, the same clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Increased global water vapor concentration may or may not cause an increase in global average cloud cover. The net effect of clouds thus has not been well modeled, however, cloud feedback is second only to water vapor feedback and is positive in all the models that were used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Another important feedback process is ice-albedo feedback. When global temperatures increase, ice near the poles melts at an increasing rate. As the ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on average less reflective than ice, and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues.

Positive feedback due to release of CO₂ and CH₄ from thawing permafrost is an additional mechanism contributing to warming. Possible positive feedback due to CH₄ release from melting seabed ices is a further mechanism to be considered.

The ocean's ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as it warms, because the resulting low nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone limits the growth of diatoms in favour of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.

Solar variation

Variations in solar output, possibly amplified by cloud feedbacks, may have contributed to recent warming. A difference between this mechanism and greenhouse warming is that an increase in solar activity should produce a warming of the stratosphere while greenhouse warming should produce a cooling of the stratosphere. Reduction of stratospheric ozone also has a cooling influence but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s. Cooling in the lower stratosphere has been observed since at least 1960. Thus, solar activity alone is not the main contributor to recent warming. Phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes have probably had a warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a cooling effect since 1950. However, some research has suggested that the Sun's contribution may have been underestimated. Two researchers at Duke University have estimated that the Sun may have contributed about 40–50% of the global surface temperature warming over the period 1900–2000, and about 25–35% between 1980 and 2000. Stott and coauthors suggest that climate models overestimate the relative effect of greenhouse gases compared to solar forcing; they also suggest that the cooling effects of volcanic dust and sulfate aerosols have been underestimated. Nevertheless, they conclude that even with an enhanced climate sensitivity to solar forcing, most of the warming during the latest decades is attributable to the increases in greenhouse gases.

In 2006, a team of scientists from the United States, Germany, and Switzerland presented results showing no net increase of brightness over the last thousand years. Solar cycles lead to a small increase of 0.07% in brightness over the last 30 years. This effect is far too minute to contribute significantly to global warming. A 2007 paper by Lockwood and Fröhlich further confirms the lack of a correlation between solar output and global warming for the time since 1985.

Temperature changes

Recent

Global temperatures on both land and sea have increased by 0.75 °C (1.35 °F) relative to the period 1860–1900, according to the instrumental temperature record. This measured temperature increase is not significantly affected by the urban heat island. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with possibly regional fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.

Sea temperatures increase more slowly than those on land both because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean can lose heat by evaporation more readily than the land . Since the northern hemisphere has more land mass than the southern it warms faster; also there are extensive areas of seasonal snow cover subject to the snow-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the northern than southern hemisphere this does not contribute to the asymmetry of warming as the major gases are essentially well-mixed between hemispheres.

Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree. Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.

Anthropogenic emissions of other pollutants—notably sulfate aerosols—can exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. This partially accounts for the cooling seen in the temperature record in the middle of the twentieth century, though the cooling may also be due in part to natural variability.

Paleoclimatologist William Ruddiman has argued that human influence on the global climate began around 8,000 years ago with the start of forest clearing to provide land for agriculture and 5,000 years ago with the start of Asian rice irrigation. Ruddiman's interpretation of the historical record, with respect to the methane data, has been disputed.

Pre-human climate variations

Earth has experienced warming and cooling many times in the past. The recent Antarctic EPICA ice core spans 800,000 years, including eight glacial cycles timed by orbital variations with interglacial warm periods comparable to present temperatures.

A rapid buildup of greenhouse gases caused warming in the early Jurassic period (about 180 million years ago), with average temperatures rising by 5 °C (9 °F). Research by the Open University indicates that the warming caused the rate of rock weathering to increase by 400%. As such weathering locks away carbon in calcite and dolomite, CO₂ levels dropped back to normal over roughly the next 150,000 years.

Sudden releases of methane from clathrate compounds (the clathrate gun hypothesis) have been hypothesized as a cause for other warming events in the distant past, including the Permian-Triassic extinction event (about 251 million years ago) and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 55 million years ago).

Climate models

Scientists have studied global warming with computer models of the climate. These models are based on physical principles of fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, and other processes, with some simplifications being necessary because of limitations in computer power. These models predict that the net effect of adding greenhouse gases is to produce a warmer climate. However, even when the same assumptions of fossil fuel consumption and CO₂ emission are used, the amount of projected warming varies between models and there still remains a considerable range of climate sensitivity.

Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate modelling, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100. Models have also been used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human derived causes.

Climate models can produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate. These models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects; however, they suggest that the warming since 1975 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Most global climate models, when run to project future climate, are forced by imposed greenhouse gas scenarios, generally one from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Less commonly, models may be run by adding a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain (under the A2 SRES scenario, responses vary between an extra 20 and 200 ppm of CO₂). Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.

The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models, though progress is being made on this problem. There is also an ongoing discussion as to whether climate models are neglecting important indirect and feedback effects of solar variability.

Attributed and expected effects

Though it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming, an increase in global temperatures may in turn cause other changes, including glacial retreat and worldwide sea level rise. Changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation may result in flooding and drought. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions and increases in the range of disease vectors.

Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being attributed in part to global warming. While changes are expected for overall patterns, intensity, and frequencies, it is difficult to attribute specific events to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.

Increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses projected due to extreme weather attributed to global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas, although temperate regions are projected to experience some minor benefits, such as fewer deaths due to cold exposure. A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II. The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.

Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and 2100, repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections. Two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly are being threatened by changes in precipitation, though few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change.

Economics

Some economists have tried to estimate the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change across the globe. Such estimates have so far failed to reach conclusive findings; in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon (tC) (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of carbon dioxide), with a mean of US$43 per tonne of carbon (US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide). One widely-publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review; it suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to 1%, and that in a worst case scenario global per capita consumption could fall 20%. The report's methodology, advocacy and conclusions have been criticized by many economists, primarily around the Review's assumptions of discounting and its choices of scenarios, while others have supported the general attempt to quantify economic risk, even if not the specific numbers.

In a summary of economic cost associated with climate change, the United Nations Environment Programme emphasizes the risks to insurers, reinsurers, and banks of increasingly traumatic and costly weather events. Other economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change include agriculture and transport. Developing countries, rather than the developed world, are at greatest economic risk.

Adaptation and mitigation

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement actions to try to curtail global warming or adjust to it. Many environmental groups encourage action against global warming, often by the consumer, but also by community and regional organizations. There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts at increased energy efficiency and (still limited) moves to alternative fuels. One important innovation has been the development of greenhouse gas emissions trading through which companies, in conjunction with government, agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances.

The world's primary international agreement on combating global warming is the Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The United States (historically the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter), Australia, and Kazakhstan have not ratified the treaty. China (which is expected to soon overtake the US in greenhouse gas emissions) and India have ratified the treaty, but as developing countries, are exempt from its provisions. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has called on the nation to redouble its efforts to tackle pollution and global warming.

This treaty expires in 2012, and international talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one.

The world's primary body for crafting a response is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN-sponsored activity which holds periodic meetings between national delegations on the problems of global warming, and issues working papers and assessments on the current status of the science of climate change, impacts, and mitigation. It convenes four different working groups examining various specific issues. For example, in May 2007, the IPCC held conferences in Bonn, Germany, and in Bangkok, Thailand.

In the absence of clear concerted action by the US Federal government, various state, local, and regional governments have begun their own initiatives to indicate support and compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, on a local basis. For example, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), is a state-level emissions capping and trading program, which was founded on January 18, 2007 and is comprised of eight Northeastern US states.

Issue debate, political processes and laws

Increased awareness of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the suggested effects of global warming, while their actual emissions have been negligible compared to the developed world. At the same time, developing country exemptions from provisions of the Kyoto Protocol have been criticized by the United States and have been used as part of its justification for continued non-ratification. In the Western world, the idea of human influence on climate and efforts to combat it has gained wider acceptance in Europe than in the United States.

Fossil fuel organizations and companies such as American Petroleum Institute and ExxonMobil, represented by Philip Cooney, and some think tanks such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute have campaigned to downplay the risks of climate change, while environmental groups and entertainers have launched campaigns emphasizing the risks. Recently, some fossil fuel companies have scaled back such efforts or called for policies to reduce global warming.

This issue has sparked debate in the U.S. about the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce impacts to the climate, versus the effects on economic activity and also about the politic manipulation of scientific testimonies and reports.

There has also been discussion in several countries about the cost of adopting alternate, cleaner energy sources in order to reduce emissions.

Another point of debate is the degree to which newly-developed economies, like India and China, should be expected to constrain their emissions and change to renewable energies. China's CO₂ emissions (mainly from coal power plants and cars), are expected to exceed those of the U.S. within the next few years (and according to one report may have already done so). China has contended that it has less obligation to reduce emissions, since its emissions per capita are about one-fifth those of the U.S.; the U.S. contends that if they must bear the costs of reducing emissions, so should China. India will also soon be one of the biggest sources of industrial emissions, and has made assertions similar to China's on this issue.

Related climatic issues

A variety of issues are often raised in relation to global warming. One is ocean acidification. Increased atmospheric CO₂ increases the amount of CO₂ dissolved in the oceans. CO₂ dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid resulting in acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.25 to 8.14 since the beginning of the industrial era, and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO₂. Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns, directly driven by increased atmospheric CO₂, that could disrupt food webs and impact human societies that depend on marine ecosystem services.

Another related issue that may have partially mitigated global warming in the late twentieth century is global dimming, the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface. From 1960 to 1990 human-caused aerosols likely precipitated this effect. Scientists have stated with 66–90% confidence that the effects of human-caused aerosols, along with volcanic activity, have offset some of global warming, and that greenhouse gases would have resulted in more warming than observed if not for these dimming agents.

Ozone depletion, the steady decline in the total amount of ozone in Earth's stratosphere, is frequently cited in relation to global warming. Although there are areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong.

See also

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• Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
• Glossary of climate change
• Low-carbon economy
• Renewable energy

References

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31. Lockwood, Mike. "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature" (PDF). Proceedings of the Royal Society A. doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880. Retrieved 2007-07-21. Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help); line feed character in |quote= at position 131 (help)
32. Smith, Thomas M. (2005-05-15). "A Global Merged Land–Air–Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Based on Historical Observations (1880–1997)" (PDF). Journal of Climate. 18 (12): 2021–2036. ISSN 0894-8755. Retrieved 2007-03-14. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
33. Hansen, James E. (2006-01-12). "Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis". NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Retrieved 2007-01-17. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
34. "Global Temperature for 2005: second warmest year on record" (PDF). Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. 2005-12-15. Retrieved 2007-04-13. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
35. "WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2005" (PDF). World Meteorological Organization. 2005-12-15. Retrieved 2007-04-13. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
36. Mitchell, J. F. B. (2001-01-20). "12.4.3.3 Space-time studies". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved 2007-01-04. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
37. Ruddiman, William F. (March 2005). "How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate?" (PDF). Scientific American. 292 (3): 46–53. Retrieved 2007-03-05.
38. Schmidt, Gavin (2004-12-10). "A note on the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation". Geophysical Research Letters. 31 (23). doi:10.1029/2004GL021083. L23206. Retrieved 2007-03-05. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
39. Hansen, James (2006-09-26). "Global temperature change" (PDF). PNAS. 103 (39): 14288–14293. Retrieved 2007-04-20. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Text "doi:10.1073/pnas.060291103" ignored (help)
40. "The Open University Provides Answers on Global Warming" (PDF) (Press release). Open University. 2004-01-30. Retrieved 2007-03-04. {{cite press release}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
41. Cohen, Anthony S. (2004). "Osmium isotope evidence for the regulation of atmospheric CO₂ by continental weathering" (PDF). Geology. 32 (2): 157–160. doi:10.1130/G20158.1. Retrieved 2007-03-04. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help); Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
42. "Summary for Policymakers". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001-01-20. Retrieved 2007-04-28. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
43. Torn, Margaret (2006-05-26). "Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming". Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (10). L10703. Retrieved 2007-03-04. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
44. Harte, John (2006-10-30). "Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought". Environmental Research Letters. 1 (1). 014001. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
45. Scheffer, Marten (2006-05-26). "Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 33. doi:10.1029/2005gl025044. Retrieved 2007-05-04. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
46. Stocker, Thomas F. (2001-01-20). "7.2.2 Cloud Processes and Feedbacks". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved 2007-03-04. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
47. ^ "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001-02-16. Retrieved 2007-03-14. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
48. ^ "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007-04-13. Retrieved 2007-04-28. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
49. Church, John A. (2001-01-20). "Executive Summary of Chapter 11". Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved 2005-12-19. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
50. Thomas, Chris D. (2004-01-08). "Extinction risk from climate change" (PDF). Nature. 427 (6970): 145–138. doi:10.1038/nature02121. Retrieved 2007-03-18. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |journal= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
51. McLaughlin, John F. (2002-04-30). "Climate change hastens population extinctions" (PDF). PNAS. 99 (9): 6070–6074. doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199. Retrieved 2007-03-29. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
52. "At-a-glance: The Stern Review". BBC. 2006-10-30. Retrieved 2007-04-29. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
53. Tol and Yohe (2006) "A Review of the Stern Review" World Economics 7(4): 233-50. See also other critiques in World Economics 7(4).
54. Brad DeLong. "Do unto others..."
55. John Quiggin. "Stern and the critics on discounting" (PDF).
56. Dlugolecki, Andrew (2002). "Climate Risk to Global Economy" (PDF). CEO Briefing: UNEP FI Climate Change Working Group. United Nations Environment Programme. Retrieved 2007-04-29. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
57. "Kyoto Protocol Status of Ratification" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2006-07-10. Retrieved 2007-04-27. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
58. "www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/43027/story.htm". Retrieved 2007-07-27.
59. Climate talks face international hurdles, by Arthur Max, Associated press, 5/14/07.
60. Bonn summary, IPCC website.
61. Bangkok Working group 3 meeting, IPCC website.
62. "Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative". Retrieved 2006-11-07.
63. Revkin, Andrew (2007-04-01). "Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms". The New York Times. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
64. Brahic, Catherine (2006-04-25). "China's emissions may surpass the US in 2007". New Scientist. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
65. Crampton, Thomas (2007-01-04). "More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows". International Herald Tribune. Retrieved 2007-04-14. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
66. "Summary of Findings". Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center. 2006-07-12. Retrieved 2007-04-14. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
67. "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics". MSNBC. 2007-01-12. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
68. Sandell, Clayton (2007-01-03). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming". ABC. Retrieved 2007-04-27. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
69. "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics". USA TODAY. 2007-05-18. Retrieved 2007-07-09. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
70. "www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=56". Retrieved 2007-07-27.
71. Holzer, Jessica (2007-01-18). "Global warming becomes hot topic on Capitol Hill". The Hill. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
72. Zabarenko, Deborah (2007-05-04). "U.S. rejects 'high cost' global warming scenarios". Reuters. Retrieved 2007-05-04. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
73. "EU agrees on carbon dioxide cuts". BCC. 2007-03-09. Retrieved 2007-05-04. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
74. "Group: China top CO2 producer". Associated Press. 2007-06-20. Retrieved 2007-06-22. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
75. Chinese object to climate draft, BBC, 5/1/07; In Battle for U.S. Carbon Caps, Eyes and Efforts Focus on China,by Steven Mufson, Washington Post, 6/6/07.
76. India's glaciers give grim message on warming, by Somni Sengupta, 7/17/07, New York Times via oregonlive.com.
77. "The Ocean and the Carbon Cycle". NASA. 2005-06-21. Retrieved 2007-03-04. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
78. Jacobson, Mark Z. (2005-04-02). "Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research. 110 (D7). doi:10.1029/2004JD005220. D07302. Retrieved 2007-04-28. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
79. Caldeira, Ken (2005-09-21). "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean". Journal of Geophysical Research. 110 (C09S04): 1–12. Retrieved 2006-02-14. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Text "doi:10.1029/2004JC002671" ignored (help)
80. Raven, John A.; et al. (2005-06-30). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide" (ASP). Royal Society. Retrieved 2007-05-04. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite journal requires |journal= (help); Explicit use of et al. in: |author= (help)

Further reading

• Amstrup, Steven C. (2006-04-27). "Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea". Polar Biology. 29 (11): 997–1002. doi:10.1007/s00300-006-0142-5. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Association of British Insurers (2005-06). Financial Risks of Climate Change (PDF). {{cite book}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)
• Barnett, Tim P. (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions". Nature. 438 (7066): 303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Behrenfeld, Michael J. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (PDF). Nature. 444 (7120): 752–755. doi:10.1038/nature05317. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Choi, Onelack (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S." Climate Change. 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Dyurgerov, Mark B. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot (PDF). Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145. {{cite book}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Emanuel, Kerry A. (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7051): 686–688. doi:10.1038/nature03906. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Hansen, James (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (PDF). Science. 308 (5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science. 299 (5610): 1214–1217. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source". BBC. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Hoyt, Douglas V. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research. 98 (A11): 18, 895–18, 906. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |year= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Kenneth, James P. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union. {{cite book}}: Check date values in: |year= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
• Keppler, Frank (2006-01-18). "Global Warming - The Blame Is not with the Plants". Max Planck Society. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Kurzweil, Raymond (2006–07). "Nanotech Could Give Global Warming a Big Chill" (PDF). Forbes / Wolfe Nanotech Report. 5 (7). {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)
• Lean, Judith L. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate". Geophysical Research Letters. 29 (24). doi:10.1029/2002GL015880. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |year= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Lerner, K. Lee (2006-07-26). Environmental issues : essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1414406258. {{cite book}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• McLaughlin, Joseph B. (2005-10-06). "Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis associated with Alaskan oysters". New England Journal of Medicine. 353 (14). New England Medical Society: 1463–1470. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)(online version requires registration)
• Muscheler, Raimund (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (PDF). Science. 308 (5722): 675–677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Oreskes, Naomi (2004-12-03). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). Science. 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Purse, Bethan V. (February 2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe". Nature Reviews Microbiology. 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice". The New York Times. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future. New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8. {{cite book}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8. {{cite book}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Solanki, Sami K. (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years" (PDF). Nature. 431: 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature02995. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Solanki, Sami K. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (PDF). Nature. 436: E4–E5. doi:10.1038/nature04046. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH₄ Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable". Science. 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
• Svensmark, Henrik (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A. 463 (2078). FirstCite Early Online Publishing: 385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |year= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)CS1 maint: year (link)(online version requires registration)
• Walter, K. M. (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature. 443 (7107): 71–75. doi:10.1038/nature05040. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Wang, Y.-M. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (PDF). Astrophysical Journal. 625: 522–538. doi:10.1086/429689. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Wang, Y.-M. (2005-05-20). "website" (PDF). ]. 625: 522–538. doi:10.1086/429689. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)

External links

Scientific

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Nature Reports Climate Change
• NOAA's Global Warming FAQ
• Outgoing Longwave Radiation pentad mean - NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• Discovery of Global Warming — An extensive introduction to the topic and the history of its discovery
• Caution urged on climate 'risks'
• NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
• News in Science - Night flights are worse for global warming - 15/06/2006

Educational

• What Is Global Warming? Simulation from National Geographic
• The EdGCM (Educational Global Climate Modelling) Project free research-quality simulation for students, educators, and scientists alike, with a user-friendly interface that runs on desktop computers
• Daily global temperatures and trends from satellites Interactive graphics from NASA
• The Pew Center on global climate change

Other

• Global Warming Prevention A wikiHow article.
• European Union website about Global Warming.
• The Global Warming Survival Guide from Time.com
• UBS Launches First Global Warming Index "UBS-GWI"
• Global Warming News & Articles Portal
• UN: rearing cattle produces more greenhouse gases than driving cars
• Science and Technology Librarianship: Global Warming and Climate Change Science – Extensive commented list of Internet resources – Science and Technology Sources on the Internet.
• Global Warming News Articles
• Union of Concerned Scientists Global Warming page
• Watch and read 'Tipping Point', Australian science documentary about effects of global warming on rare, common, and endangered wildlife
• Newest reports on U.S. EPA website
• IPS Inter Press Service — Independent news on global warming and its consequences.
• Indonesia Counts Its Islands Before It Is Too Late
• World Environment Day 2007 "Melting Ice" image gallery at The Guardian
• Climate Counts - corporate watchdog
• Action Needed on Climate Change - US Business Group.

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• Climate change feedbacks and causes
• History of climate
• Global warming
• Economic problems