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'''Global warming''' is the increase in the ] of the ]'s near-surface air and ]s since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.{{fact|}} '''Global warming''' is the increase in the ] of the ]'s near-surface air and ]s since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.{{fact|}}


The Earth's global surface temperature is determined by the amount of incoming ] absorbed by the Earth and the retention of that heat by ]es.<ref name="grida7"/> This ]'s average ] has increased 0.74 ] 0.18&nbsp;°] (1.33 ± 0.32&nbsp;°]) during the 100 years ending in 2005.<ref name="grida7"/><ref name="Global">Global surface temperature is defined in the ] as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.</ref> The ] (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" ] the increase in ] ] concentrations.<ref name="grida7">{{cite web | url= http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf | format=] | title=Summary for Policymakers | work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | accessdate=2007-02-02 | date=] | publisher=]|quote=}}</ref><ref name="Global"/> The anthropogenic attribution of recent global warming has been endorsed by at least 30 ].<ref>The 2001 joint statement was signed by the scientific academies of ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], and the ]. The 2005 statement added ], ], and the ] The 2007 statement added ] and ]. Professional societies include American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Astronomical Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London, Geological Society of America, American Chemical Society, and Engineers Australia.</ref> While a ] have voiced disagreement with these findings,<ref> The Earth's global surface temperature is determined by the amount of incoming ] absorbed by the Earth and the retention of that heat by ]es.<ref name="grida7"/> This ]'s average ] has increased 0.74 ] 0.18&nbsp;°] (1.33 ± 0.32&nbsp;°]) during the 100 years ending in 2005.<ref name="grida7"/><ref name="Global">Global surface temperature is defined in the ] as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.</ref> The ] (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" ] the increase in ] ] concentrations,<ref name="grida7">{{cite web | url= http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf | format=] | title=Summary for Policymakers | work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | accessdate=2007-02-02 | date=] | publisher=]|quote=}}</ref><ref name="Global"/> and this attribution of recent global warming has been endorsed by at least 30 ].<ref>The 2001 joint statement was signed by the scientific academies of ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], and the ]. The 2005 statement added ], ], and the ] The 2007 statement added ] and ]. Professional societies include American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Astronomical Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London, Geological Society of America, American Chemical Society, and Engineers Australia.</ref> While a ] have voiced disagreement with these findings,<ref>
{{cite web | title = Don't fight, adapt | publisher = ] | url = http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=164002 | accessdate = 2007-11-18 |month=December | year=2007}} {{cite web | title = Don't fight, adapt | publisher = ] | url = http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=164002 | accessdate = 2007-11-18 |month=December | year=2007}}
</ref> the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the IPCC's main conclusions.<ref>{{cite web | title = A guide to facts and fictions about climate change | publisher = ] | url = http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 | accessdate = 2007-11-18 | month = March | year = 2005 | quote = "However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agreed on the main points"}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | title = Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change | publisher = '']'' | url = http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686 | accessdate = 2008-01-04 |month=December | year=2004}}</ref> </ref> the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the IPCC's main conclusions.<ref>{{cite web | title = A guide to facts and fictions about climate change | publisher = ] | url = http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 | accessdate = 2007-11-18 | month = March | year = 2005 | quote = "However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agreed on the main points"}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | title = Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change | publisher = '']'' | url = http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686 | accessdate = 2008-01-04 |month=December | year=2004}}</ref>


] projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further {{nowrap|1.1 to 6.4&nbsp;°C}} {{nowrap|(2.0 to 11.5&nbsp;°F)}} during the twenty-first century.<ref name="grida7" /> The uncertainty in this estimate arises from use of differing ] and from use of models with differing ]. Some other ] include how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming is expected to continue even in the absence of new emissions<ref name="carbon_lifetime1">{{Citation | url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf |format=PDF| first = David | last = Archer | title = Fate of fossil fuel {{chem|CO|2}} in geologic time | journal = ] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S05.1–C09S05.6 | year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002625 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref><ref name="carbon_lifetime2">{{Citation | first1=Ken | last1=Caldeira | first2=Michael E. | last2= Wickett | url=http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~jomce/acidification/paper/Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR.pdf |format=PDF| title = Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean | journal = ] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S04.1–C09S04.12| year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002671 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref> because of the large heat capacity of the oceans,<ref name="grida7" /> and the lifespan of ] in the atmosphere. ] projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further {{nowrap|1.1 to 6.4&nbsp;°C}} {{nowrap|(2.0 to 11.5&nbsp;°F)}} during the twenty-first century.<ref name="grida7" /> The disagreement between these estimate arises from use of differing ] and from use of models with differing ]. Many climate models omit ] effects which may significantly increase the rate and magnitude of global warming (notably ]).<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1029/2003GL018680|title=Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: Effects on vegetation and methane emissions|year=2004|author=Christensen, Torben R.|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=31|pages=L04501}}</ref> This omission of positive feedback effects is a potential reason why ] has happened far faster than the ]'s predictions.<ref>http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html</ref><ref>http://www.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/dc2008/DC/report/Maslowski.pdf</ref>

Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, changes due to warming are expected to continue for more than a thousand years,<ref name="Archer2007">{{cite journal|url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2007.hydrate_rev.pdf|format=PDF|title=Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change|last=Archer|first=D.|journal=Biogeosciences|volume=4|issue=4|year=2007|pages=521–544}}</ref><ref name="carbon_lifetime1">{{Citation | url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf |format=PDF| first = David | last = Archer | title = Fate of fossil fuel {{chem|CO|2}} in geologic time | journal = ] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S05.1–C09S05.6 | year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002625 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref><ref name="carbon_lifetime2">{{Citation | first1=Ken | last1=Caldeira | first2=Michael E. | last2= Wickett | url=http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~jomce/acidification/paper/Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR.pdf |format=PDF| title = Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean | journal = ] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S04.1–C09S04.12| year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002671 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref> even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized.<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1073/pnas.0812721106|title=Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions|year=2009|author=Solomon, S.|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}} </ref>


Increasing global temperature will cause ] and will change the amount and pattern of ], likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions.<ref> Increasing global temperature will cause ] and will change the amount and pattern of ], likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions.<ref>
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| accessdate = 12/06/2008 | accessdate = 12/06/2008
| pages = L06805}} | pages = L06805}}
</ref> Other likely effects include ] and resulting ], increases in the intensity of ] events, changes in ]s, modifications of trade routes, ], species ] and changes in the ranges of ]. </ref> Other likely effects include continuing ] and accelerating ], increases in the intensity of ] events, changes in ]s, modifications of trade routes, ], species ] and changes in the ranges of ].{{fact|should have a citation for the lump of effects - is this all in the IPCC report? (I've never read it.) ] (]) 22:19, 30 January 2009 (UTC)}} There is still much uncertainty about the specific effects of global warming on local regions. Some scientists have speculated that global warming may lead to very severe disruption to the atmosphere and oceans. Such suggested effects include global ]<ref>http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403143622.htm</ref><ref>http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazon_cc_impacts_lit_review_final_2.pdf</ref>, an ]<ref name="Gronstal 2008">{{cite web
| last = Gronstal
| first = A. L.
| title = Gasping for Breath in the Jurassic Era
| work = http://www.space.com
| publisher = ]
| date = 2008-04-24
| url = http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/080424-am-jurassic-warming.html
| accessdate = 2008-04-24}}
</ref><ref name="Cohen 2008">
{{cite journal
| last = Pearce
| first = C. R.
| coauthors = Cohen, A. S.; Coe, A. L.; Burton, K. W.
| title = Molybdenum isotope evidence for global ocean anoxia coupled with perturbations to the carbon cycle during the Early Jurassic
| journal = Geology
| volume = 36
| issue = 3
| pages = 231–234
| publisher = ]
| month = March | year = 2008
| url = http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/36/3/231
| doi = 10.1130/G24446A.1
| accessdate = 2008-04-24}}</ref> or ]<ref>http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/james-lovelock-the-earth-is-about-to-catch-a-morbid-fever-that-may-last-as-long-as-100000-years-523161.html</ref><ref>Global Warning: The Last Chance for Change, Paul Brown, published by the Guardian and A&C Black</ref>.<!-- These effects are important, but need quality citations to prove they are credible. Please don't remove them on the grounds that citations have not yet been found.~~~~ -->


] and ] continues regarding what, if any, responses to global warming are made. Possible responses include ] to reduce further emissions and ] to reduce the damage caused by warming. ] have signed and ratified the ] aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ] and ] continues regarding what, if any, responses to global warming are made. The available options are: ] to reduce further emissions; ] to reduce the damage caused by warming; and ] to reverse global warming. ] have signed and ratified the ] aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions<ref name = "Kyoto-PDF-unfccc">{{cite web | title=Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification | url=http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf | date=2008-10-16 | accessdate=2008-07-01 | publisher=] |format=PDF}}</ref>, though a new deal on Global climate will be needed when Kyoto expires in 2012.
<references/>

Revision as of 03:56, 2 February 2009

This is a Wikipedia user page.
This is not an encyclopedia article or the talk page for an encyclopedia article. If you find this page on any site other than Wikipedia, you are viewing a mirror site. Be aware that the page may be outdated and that the user in whose space this page is located may have no personal affiliation with any site other than Wikipedia. The original page is located at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Enuja/Sandbox.
For past Climate change, see Paleoclimatology and Geologic temperature record.

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.

The Earth's global surface temperature is determined by the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and the retention of that heat by greenhouse gases. This Earth's average temperature has increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and this attribution of recent global warming has been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science. While a small minority have voiced disagreement with these findings, the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the IPCC's main conclusions.

Climate model projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century. The disagreement between these estimate arises from use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions and from use of models with differing climate sensitivity. Many climate models omit positive feedback effects which may significantly increase the rate and magnitude of global warming (notably Arctic methane release). This omission of positive feedback effects is a potential reason why Arctic shrinkage has happened far faster than the IPCC's predictions.

Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, changes due to warming are expected to continue for more than a thousand years, even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized.

Increasing global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions. Other likely effects include continuing Arctic shrinkage and accelerating Arctic methane release, increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, changes in agricultural yields, modifications of trade routes, glacier retreat, species extinctions and changes in the ranges of disease vectors. There is still much uncertainty about the specific effects of global warming on local regions. Some scientists have speculated that global warming may lead to very severe disruption to the atmosphere and oceans. Such suggested effects include global wildfires, an ocean anoxic event or runaway climate change.

Political and public debate continues regarding what, if any, responses to global warming are made. The available options are: Mitigation to reduce further emissions; Adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and Geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, though a new deal on Global climate will be needed when Kyoto expires in 2012.

  1. ^ "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007-02-05. Retrieved 2007-02-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  2. ^ Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.
  3. The 2001 joint statement was signed by the scientific academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. Professional societies include American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Astronomical Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London, Geological Society of America, American Chemical Society, and Engineers Australia.
  4. "Don't fight, adapt". National Post. 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-18. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  5. "A guide to facts and fictions about climate change". Royal Society. 2005. Retrieved 2007-11-18. However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agreed on the main points {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  6. "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change". Science. 2004. Retrieved 2008-01-04. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help); Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  7. Christensen, Torben R. (2004). "Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: Effects on vegetation and methane emissions". Geophysical Research Letters. 31: L04501. doi:10.1029/2003GL018680.
  8. http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html
  9. http://www.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/dc2008/DC/report/Maslowski.pdf
  10. Archer, D. (2007). "Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change" (PDF). Biogeosciences. 4 (4): 521–544.
  11. Archer, David (2005), "Fate of fossil fuel CO
    2 in geologic time"     (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (C9): C09S05.1–C09S05.6, doi:10.1029/2004JC002625, retrieved 2007-07-27
  12. Caldeira, Ken; Wickett, Michael E. (2005), "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (C9): C09S04.1–C09S04.12, doi:10.1029/2004JC002671, retrieved 2007-07-27
  13. Solomon, S. (2009). "Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106. digest
  14. Lu, Jian (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 34: L06805. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443. Retrieved 12/06/2008. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help); Unknown parameter |xauthorlink= ignored (help)
  15. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403143622.htm
  16. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazon_cc_impacts_lit_review_final_2.pdf
  17. Gronstal, A. L. (2008-04-24). "Gasping for Breath in the Jurassic Era". http://www.space.com. Imaginova. Retrieved 2008-04-24. {{cite web}}: External link in |work= (help)
  18. Pearce, C. R. (2008). "Molybdenum isotope evidence for global ocean anoxia coupled with perturbations to the carbon cycle during the Early Jurassic". Geology. 36 (3). Geological Society of America: 231–234. doi:10.1130/G24446A.1. Retrieved 2008-04-24. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help); Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  19. http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/james-lovelock-the-earth-is-about-to-catch-a-morbid-fever-that-may-last-as-long-as-100000-years-523161.html
  20. Global Warning: The Last Chance for Change, Paul Brown, published by the Guardian and A&C Black
  21. "Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2008-10-16. Retrieved 2008-07-01.