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| ] Has written, "The graph shows the dramatic rise in temperature in the northern hemisphere over the past 100 years caused, presumably, by humans. But as Montford details in his book, the graph is incorrect. had standardised the data by "short-centering" them -- essentially subtracting them from a 20th century average rather than an average of the whole period. This meant that the principal component analysis "mined" the data for anything with a 20th century uptick, and gave it vastly more weight than data indicating, say, a medieval warm spell. Talk about an inconvenient truth. <ref name="Jason Kottke ">{{cite web|url=http://kottke.org/10/03/the-hockey-stick-climate-chage-graph?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter|title=The hockey stick climate change graph|last=Kottke |first=Jason |date= Mar 16, 2010|publisher=Jason |language=English|accessdate=26 April 2010}}</ref> | ] Has written, "The graph shows the dramatic rise in temperature in the northern hemisphere over the past 100 years caused, presumably, by humans. But as Montford details in his book, the graph is incorrect. had standardised the data by "short-centering" them -- essentially subtracting them from a 20th century average rather than an average of the whole period. This meant that the principal component analysis "mined" the data for anything with a 20th century uptick, and gave it vastly more weight than data indicating, say, a medieval warm spell. Talk about an inconvenient truth. <ref name="Jason Kottke ">{{cite web|url=http://kottke.org/10/03/the-hockey-stick-climate-chage-graph?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter|title=The hockey stick climate change graph|last=Kottke |first=Jason |date= Mar 16, 2010|publisher=Jason |language=English|accessdate=26 April 2010}}</ref> | ||
| == |
==The author== | ||
| Andrew Montford is a Chartered Accountant<ref name="The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS)">{{cite web|url=http://www.icas.org.uk/directory/membyname.asp?Alpha=M&PageNo=131|title=The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS)|last=ICAS|publisher=ICAS|accessdate=19 April 2010}}</ref> who also works in science publishing,<ref name="Anglosphere Editing Limited">{{cite web |url=http://www.anglosphere.co.uk/people/ |title=People|work=Anglosphere Editing Limited |accessdate=26 April 2010}}</ref><ref name="postscript_2010-03-25_THE" /> and is author of the blog, ].<ref name="Leigh_2010-02-04_Guardian"/> After following a link from a blog posted by ] to ], Montford changed the focus of his blog to ] from a ]. Montford's explanations of the "hockey stick" debate have received favorable comment from readers such as ],<ref name="Anthony Watts">{{cite web|url=http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/30/a-must-read-the-yamal-hockey-stick-implosion-in-laymans-terms/|title=A must read: The Yamal Hockey Stick Implosion in laymans terms|last=Watts|first=Anthony|date=30 09 2009|publisher=Watts Up With That|accessdate=19 April 2010}}</ref> ]<ref name="Roger A. Pielke, Jr.">{{cite web|url=http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/09/has-steve-mcintyre-found-something.html|title=Has Steve McIntyre Found Something Really Important? |last=Pielke, Jr.|first=Roger A.|date=30 SEPTEMBER 2009|publisher=Roger A. Pielke, Jr.|accessdate=19 April 2010}}</ref> and ], specifically his summaries of posts from ] entitled "Caspar And The Jesus Paper"<ref name="Matt Ridley">{{cite news|url=http://www.spectator.co.uk/print/politics/all/5749853/the-global-warming-guerrillas.thtml|title=The Global Warming Guerrillas|last=Ridley|first=Matt|date=3 February 2010|publisher=The Spectator|accessdate=9 April 2010}}</ref> and "The Yamal Implosion".<ref name="Anthony Watts"/> | |||
| ==See also== | ==See also== | ||
Revision as of 23:27, 28 April 2010
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| It has been suggested that Andrew Montford be merged into this article. (Discuss) Proposed since April 2010. |
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| Author | A.W. Montford |
|---|---|
| Language | English |
| Subject | Climate change |
| Genre | Non-Fiction, Polemic |
| Publisher | Stacey International |
| Publication date | 2010 |
| Publication place | United Kingdom |
| Pages | 482 |
| ISBN | 978 1 906768 35 5 |
The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science is a book written by Andrew Montford and published by Stacey International in 2010. Montford, who is skeptical of man made climate change, provides his analysis of the history of the "hockey stick graph" of global temperatures for the last 1000 years. The graph was first published in 1998, and included prominently in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report in 2001.
Synopsis
In its seventeen chapters, The Hockey Stick Illusion relates the story of Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes's "hockey stick graph" from a skeptical perspective. Starting with a brief summary of the consensus view prior to 1998, and the first incarnation of the hockey stick graph, the book traces the history of what Montford claims is the slow unraveling of that same graph.
The last few chapters of the book deal with the what the book refers to as the "Climategate controversy." Here, the author compares several e-mails to the evidence he presents in The Hockey Stick Illusion. Montford focuses on those e-mails which dealt with the peer review process and how these pertained to Stephen McIntyre's efforts to obtain the data and methodology from Mann's and other paleoclimatologists' published works.
Many subsequent scientific papers have produced reconstructions broadly similar to the original MBH hockey-stick graph using various statistical techniques and combinations of proxy records.
Reception
The book has been praised for the quality of its writing and likened to a detective story. Matt Ridley described the book as "one of the best science books in years" and complimented the way it dissected what he called "a great scientific mistake". Christopher Booker also recommends the book as a "full account" of the IPCC's use of the hockey stick graph in its Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. Writing in Discovery News, Discovery Institute co-founder George Gilder compared the portrayal of Stephen McIntyre's pursuit of the data underlying the "hockey stick" graph with the lead detective character in the Columbo televison series.
An article by Bruce Robbins in The Courier states that the book shows that the science involved in climate change has been corrupted by political and environmental agendas. Robbins concludes, "The evidence against man-made global warming is growing and the Hockey Stick Illusion stands as the definitive account of a pivotal point in climate change science."
Andrew Orlowski in an interview with the author said, " has provided the storytelling to match the detective work and persistence of another blogger, Steve McIntyre".
Jason Kottke Has written, "The graph shows the dramatic rise in temperature in the northern hemisphere over the past 100 years caused, presumably, by humans. But as Montford details in his book, the graph is incorrect. had standardised the data by "short-centering" them -- essentially subtracting them from a 20th century average rather than an average of the whole period. This meant that the principal component analysis "mined" the data for anything with a 20th century uptick, and gave it vastly more weight than data indicating, say, a medieval warm spell. Talk about an inconvenient truth.
The author
Andrew Montford is a Chartered Accountant who also works in science publishing, and is author of the blog, Bishop Hill. After following a link from a blog posted by Tim Worstall to Climate Audit, Montford changed the focus of his blog to climate change from a skeptical viewpoint. Montford's explanations of the "hockey stick" debate have received favorable comment from readers such as Anthony Watts, Roger A. Pielke, Jr. and Matt Ridley, specifically his summaries of posts from Climate Audit entitled "Caspar And The Jesus Paper" and "The Yamal Implosion".
See also
- Medieval warm period
- Historical climatology
- Hockey stick controversy
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy
References
- ^ David Leigh, Charles Arthur and Rob Evans (2010-02-04). "Detectives question climate change scientist over email leaks". Guardian. Retrieved 2010-04-14.
- Webster, Ben (23 March 2010). "Lord Oxburgh, the climate science peer, 'has a conflict of interest'". Times Newspapers Ltd. Times Online. Retrieved 7 April 2010.
- Fred Pearce (9 February 2010). "Part four: Climate change debate overheated after sceptics grasped 'hockey stick' | Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved 2010-03-08.
- Matt Ridley (2010-02-03). "The global warming guerrillas". The Spectator (spectator.co.uk). Retrieved 2010-04-09.
- "Spencer: It's time for Joe Sestak to name names". www.delcotimes.com. Retrieved Thursday, April 01, 2010.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|accessdate=(help) - Matt Ridley (2010-03-10). "The case against the hockey stick". Prospect (prospectmagazine.co.uk). Retrieved 2010-04-03.
- Christopher Booker (7:49PM GMT 27 Feb 2010). "A perfect storm is brewing for the IPCC". www.telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved Saturday, Apr 03 2010.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|accessdate=and|date=(help) - George Gilder (2010-02-25). "George Gilder Hails "The Hockey Stick Illusion" on the Science Scandal of Global Warming". discoverynews.org. Retrieved 2010-02-25.
In this story, the Columbo figure is Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mining consultant, and A.W. Montford's book tells the gripping and suspenseful details of McIntyre's pursuit of the self-denominated "hockey team" led by Michael Mann, who wrote the key chapters on his own work for the IPCC, and Phil Jones, who maintains the temperature record used by the IPCC to document the "Hockey Stick" claiming allegedly unprecedented and anomalous anthropogenic global warming in the Twentieth Century while denying that any comparable or greater warming occurred in the Medieval period.
- Bruce Robbins (2010-04-02). "Climate of Change". The Courier.
- Orlowski, Andrew (8th February 2010). "Bishop Hill: Gonzo science and the Hockey Stick Torturing the climate numbers until they confess". The Register. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - Kottke, Jason (Mar 16, 2010). "The hockey stick climate change graph". Jason. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
- ICAS. "The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS)". ICAS. Retrieved 19 April 2010.
- "People". Anglosphere Editing Limited. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
- Montford, Andrew (2010-03-25). "Heated discussions". Times Higher Education. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
- ^ Watts, Anthony (30 09 2009). "A must read: The Yamal Hockey Stick Implosion in laymans terms". Watts Up With That. Retrieved 19 April 2010.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - Pielke, Jr., Roger A. (30 SEPTEMBER 2009). "Has Steve McIntyre Found Something Really Important?". Roger A. Pielke, Jr. Retrieved 19 April 2010.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - Ridley, Matt (3 February 2010). "The Global Warming Guerrillas". The Spectator. Retrieved 9 April 2010.
Further reading
- Booker, Christopher (2009). The Real Global Warming Disaster. Continuum International Publishing Group Ltd. ISBN 1441110526.
- Montford, Andrew (2008-08-11). "Casper and the Jesus paper". Retrieved 2010-04-01.