| Revision as of 08:58, 20 June 2011 editArthur Rubin (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users, Rollbackers130,168 edits Reverted 1 edit by Gabriel Kielland (talk): 1. Concerns have not been resolved. 2. Link is a WP:EGG, and it being due to man is not part of the definition of boundary. (← Previous edit | Revision as of 14:08, 20 June 2011 edit undoEpipelagic (talk | contribs)Autopatrolled, Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers85,820 edits starting to clean this up. This needs a lot more work.Next edit → | ||
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| {{Notability|date=May 2011}} | {{Notability|date=May 2011}} | ||
| {{One source|date=May 2011}} | {{One source|date=May 2011}} | ||
| '''Planetary boundaries''' is a concept developed by a group of researchers led by Johan Rockström, director of the ]. The concept highlights that dangerous thresholds (or ]) on global ] have already been crossed or are being rapidly approached due to human activities. The |
'''Planetary boundaries''' is a concept developed by a group of researchers led by Johan Rockström, director of the ]. The concept highlights that dangerous thresholds (or ]) on global ] have already been crossed or are being rapidly approached due to human activities. The Centre published the full finding in a report in 2009,<ref name="Rockström a">Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson Å, Chapin III FS, Lambin EF, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, Nykvist B, de Wit CA, Hughes T, van der Leeuw S, Rodhe H, Sörlin S, Snyder PK, Costanza R, Svedin U, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Corell RW, Fabry VJ, Hansen J, Walker B, Liverman D, Richardson K, Crutzen P and Foley JA (2009) ''Ecology and Society,'' '''14'''(2): 32.</ref> and an edited version was published as a featured article in '']''.<ref name="Rockström b">Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson Å, Chapin III FS, Lambin EF, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, Nykvist B, de Wit CA, Hughes T, van der Leeuw S, Rodhe H, Sörlin S, Snyder PK, Costanza R, Svedin U, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Corell RW, Fabry VJ, Hansen J, Walker B, Liverman D, Richardson K, Crutzen P and Foley JA (2009) ''Nature,'' '''461''': 472–475. {{doi|0.1038/461472a}}.</ref> | ||
| Rockström collaborated with 28 leading academics, including the Nobel laureate ], the NASA climate scientist ] and the German chancellor's chief climate adviser ]. They identified nine "planetary life-support systems" essential for human survival. They then attempted to quantify how far seven of these systems have been pushed already, estimating how much further we can go before our own survival is threatened. Beyond these boundaries, they say, there is a risk of "irreversible and abrupt environmental change", which could make Earth less liveable.<ref name="Rockström a" /> | |||
| The boundaries they identified are "rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps". They interact in ways that are complex and not well understood. But boundaries can give room and define a "safe space for human development", which is an improvement on approaches which just aim to minimise human impacts on the planet.<ref name="Rockström a" /> Coincident with the publication of their report, ''Nature'' additionally published critical commentaries from "renowned experts", including the Nobel laureate ] and the biologist ], on each of the seven planetary boundaries which had been quantified.<ref> ''Nature'' reports: climate change, 23 September 2009. A series of commentaries on the planetary boundaries concept set out in the original paper.</ref> | |||
| ==The nine boundaries== | |||
| {| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| |- | |- | ||
| ! Boundary issue !! Boundary indicator !! Status | ! Boundary issue !! Boundary indicator !! Status !! Commentary | ||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 1. ] || CO<sub>2</sub> in the ] (see also ])|| <font color="#ff0000">limit exceeded</font> | | 1. ] || CO<sub>2</sub> in the ] (see also ])|| <font color="#ff0000">limit exceeded</font> || <center><ref>] (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, {{doi|10.1038/climate.2009.95}}</ref></center> | ||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 2. ] loss || Number of ] becoming extinct per million per year (])|| <font color="#ff0000">limit exceeded</font> | | 2. ] loss || Number of ] becoming extinct per million per year (])|| <font color="#ff0000">limit exceeded</font> || <center><ref>] (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, {{doi|10.1038/climate.2009.99}} | ||
| </ref></center> | |||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 3a. ]<br>3b. ] || amount of N<sub>2</sub> per year due to man removed from the atmosphere<br>amount of phosphorus per year going into the ]|| <font color="#ff0000">limit exceeded</font><br><font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> | | 3a. ]<br>3b. ] || amount of N<sub>2</sub> per year due to man removed from the atmosphere<br>amount of phosphorus per year going into the ]|| <font color="#ff0000">limit exceeded</font><br><font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> || <center><ref>] (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change. Published online, {{ doi|10.1038/climate.2009.93}}</ref></center><br/> | ||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 4. ] || Stratospheric ] || <font color="green">not exceeded</font> | | 4. ] || Stratospheric ] || <font color="green">not exceeded</font> || <center><ref>] (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, {{doi|10.1038/climate.2009.96}} | ||
| </ref></center> | |||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 5. ] || average degree of ] saturation in ] || <font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> | | 5. ] || average degree of ] saturation in ] || <font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> || <center><ref>Brewer P (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, {{doi|10.1038/climate.2009.98}} | ||
| </ref></center> | |||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 6. ] || ] ] || <font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> | | 6. ] || ] ] || <font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> || <center><ref>Molden D (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, {{doi|10.1038/climate.2009.97}} | ||
| </ref></center> | |||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 7. Change in ] || percentage of land used in ] || <font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> | | 7. Change in ] || percentage of land used in ] || <font color="blue">almost exceeded</font> || <center><ref>Bass S (2009) Commentary. ''Nature'' reports: climate change. Published online, {{doi|10.1038/climate.2009.94}}</ref></center> | ||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 8. Chemical pollution || concentration of ], ], ], ],<br>] into the environment || <font color="green">not exceeded</font> | | 8. Chemical pollution || concentration of ], ], ], ],<br>] into the environment || <font color="green">not exceeded</font> || | ||
| |- | |- | ||
| | 9. Atmospheric aerosol loading || concentration of ] in the atmosphere || <font color="green">not exceeded</font> | | 9. Atmospheric aerosol loading || concentration of ] in the atmosphere || <font color="green">not exceeded</font> || | ||
| |} | |} | ||
| The proposed concept of |
The proposed concept of planetary boundaries lays the groundwork for shifting approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative ]es, toward the estimation of the safe space for ]. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if major ] on a global scale is to be avoided | ||
| Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt ] within ]al- to planetary-scale systems. The 2009 study identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, the researchers proposed quantifications for seven of them. These seven are ] (] concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W/m<sup>2</sup> in ]); ] (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-] levels); ] ozone (less than 5% reduction in total atmospheric ] from a pre-industrial level of 290 ]s); ] ] (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N<sub>2</sub> to 35 Tg N/yr) and ] (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background ] of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km<sup>3</sup>/yr of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which the group had not yet been able to determine a boundary level are ]. | Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt ] within ]al- to planetary-scale systems. The 2009 study identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, the researchers proposed quantifications for seven of them. These seven are ] (] concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W/m<sup>2</sup> in ]); ] (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-] levels); ] ozone (less than 5% reduction in total atmospheric ] from a pre-industrial level of 290 ]s); ] ] (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N<sub>2</sub> to 35 Tg N/yr) and ] (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background ] of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km<sup>3</sup>/yr of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which the group had not yet been able to determine a boundary level are ]. | ||
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| *] | *] | ||
| {{clear}} | |||
| ==References== | |||
| ⚫ | |||
| ==Notes== | |||
| {{reflist|2}} | |||
| ⚫ | ==Other references== | ||
| * Richardson K, Steffen W, and Liverman D (2011) Cambridge University Press, pp. 485–487. ISBN 9780521198363. | |||
| * Editorial, ''Nature,'' '''461''', 447–448, 24 September 2009. {{doi|10.1038/461447b}} | |||
| ==External links== | ==External links== | ||
| * '']'', 23 September 2009. | |||
| ⚫ | * by Jonathan Foley, Gretchen C. Daily, Robert Howarth, David A. Vaccari, Adele C. Morris, Eric F. Lambin, Scott C. Doney, Peter H. Gleick and David W. Fahey ] April 2010 | ||
| * |
* ''Nature,'' 24 september 2009. | ||
| ⚫ | * by Jonathan Foley, Gretchen C. Daily, Robert Howarth, David A. Vaccari, Adele C. Morris, Eric F. Lambin, Scott C. Doney, Peter H. Gleick and David W. Fahey ] April 2010 | ||
| *"A Safe Operating Space for Humanity," Nature, 461 (24 September 2009): 472-475. | |||
| * http://www.nature.com/news/specials/planetaryboundaries/index.html#feature ''Planetary Boundaries: Specials'' Nature 24 september 2009. | |||
| * from ] | |||
| * ''Earth's boundaries?'' ] editorial (24 September 2009) | |||
| * by Brandon Keim September 23, 2009 ] | * by Brandon Keim September 23, 2009 ] | ||
| * in ] February 2010 | |||
| ] | ] | ||
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Planetary boundaries is a concept developed by a group of researchers led by Johan Rockström, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The concept highlights that dangerous thresholds (or tipping points) on global earth-system processes have already been crossed or are being rapidly approached due to human activities. The Centre published the full finding in a report in 2009, and an edited version was published as a featured article in Nature.
Rockström collaborated with 28 leading academics, including the Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen, the NASA climate scientist James Hansen and the German chancellor's chief climate adviser Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. They identified nine "planetary life-support systems" essential for human survival. They then attempted to quantify how far seven of these systems have been pushed already, estimating how much further we can go before our own survival is threatened. Beyond these boundaries, they say, there is a risk of "irreversible and abrupt environmental change", which could make Earth less liveable.
The boundaries they identified are "rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps". They interact in ways that are complex and not well understood. But boundaries can give room and define a "safe space for human development", which is an improvement on approaches which just aim to minimise human impacts on the planet. Coincident with the publication of their report, Nature additionally published critical commentaries from "renowned experts", including the Nobel laureate Mario J. Molina and the biologist Cristián Samper, on each of the seven planetary boundaries which had been quantified.
The nine boundaries
| Boundary issue | Boundary indicator | Status | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Climate change | CO2 in the atmosphere (see also tipping point (climatology)) | limit exceeded | |
| 2. Biodiversity loss | Number of species becoming extinct per million per year (Holocene extinction) | limit exceeded | |
| 3a. Nitrogen cycle 3b. Phosphorus cycle |
amount of N2 per year due to man removed from the atmosphere amount of phosphorus per year going into the oceans |
limit exceeded almost exceeded |
|
| 4. Atmospheric ozone | Stratospheric ozone depletion | not exceeded | |
| 5. Ocean acidification | average degree of seawater saturation in aragonite | almost exceeded | |
| 6. Global freshwater use | consumption of water per capita | almost exceeded | |
| 7. Change in land use | percentage of land used in agriculture | almost exceeded | |
| 8. Chemical pollution | concentration of toxic substances, plastics, endocrine disruptors, heavy metals, Radioactive contamination into the environment |
not exceeded | |
| 9. Atmospheric aerosol loading | concentration of particulate in the atmosphere | not exceeded |
The proposed concept of planetary boundaries lays the groundwork for shifting approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if major human-induced environmental change on a global scale is to be avoided
Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. The 2009 study identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, the researchers proposed quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W/m in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (less than 5% reduction in total atmospheric O3 from a pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N/yr) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km/yr of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which the group had not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading.
Debate
The concept was referred to in the European Environment Agency synthesis report "The European environment – state and outlook 2010". The report questions whether it is meaningful to calculate a global rate for processes some of which are inherently localised, the scientific justification, the possibility of choosing exact values that are non-arbitrary and the problems of reducing the complexity of interactions into single boundary values. Problems might arise with regard to balancing limits with ethical and economic issues and confusing values with targets.
Also the UNEP Yearbook 2010 repeated Rockström's message conceptually linked with Ecosystems management and Environmental Governance.
See also
Notes
- ^ Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson Å, Chapin III FS, Lambin EF, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, Nykvist B, de Wit CA, Hughes T, van der Leeuw S, Rodhe H, Sörlin S, Snyder PK, Costanza R, Svedin U, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Corell RW, Fabry VJ, Hansen J, Walker B, Liverman D, Richardson K, Crutzen P and Foley JA (2009) "Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity" Ecology and Society, 14(2): 32.
- Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson Å, Chapin III FS, Lambin EF, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, Nykvist B, de Wit CA, Hughes T, van der Leeuw S, Rodhe H, Sörlin S, Snyder PK, Costanza R, Svedin U, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Corell RW, Fabry VJ, Hansen J, Walker B, Liverman D, Richardson K, Crutzen P and Foley JA (2009) "A safe operating space for humanity" Nature, 461: 472–475. Error: Bad DOI specified!.
- Planetary boundaries Nature reports: climate change, 23 September 2009. A series of commentaries on the planetary boundaries concept set out in the original paper.
- Allen M (2009) Planetary boundaries: Tangible targets are critical Commentary. Nature reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.95
- Samper C (2009) Planetary boundaries: Rethinking biodiversity Commentary. Nature reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.99
- Schlesinger WH (2009) "Planetary boundaries: Thresholds risk prolonged degradation" Commentary. Nature reports: climate change. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.93
- Molina MJ (2009) Planetary boundaries: Identifying abrupt change Commentary. Nature reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.96
- Brewer P (2009) Planetary boundaries: Consider all consequences Commentary. Nature reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.98
- Molden D (2009) Planetary boundaries: The devil is in the detail Commentary. Nature reports: climate change: commentary. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.97
- Bass S (2009) Planetary boundaries: Keep off the grass Commentary. Nature reports: climate change. Published online, doi:10.1038/climate.2009.94
- The European environment – state and outlook 2010 Chapter 7: environmental challenges in a global context
- UNEP Year Book 2010
Other references
- Richardson K, Steffen W, and Liverman D (2011) Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Cambridge University Press, pp. 485–487. ISBN 9780521198363.
- Earth's boundaries? Editorial, Nature, 461, 447–448, 24 September 2009. doi:10.1038/461447b
External links
- Tipping towards the unknown Stockholm Resilience Centre, 23 September 2009.
- Planetary Boundaries: Specials Nature, 24 september 2009.
- "Boundaries for a Healthy Planet" by Jonathan Foley, Gretchen C. Daily, Robert Howarth, David A. Vaccari, Adele C. Morris, Eric F. Lambin, Scott C. Doney, Peter H. Gleick and David W. Fahey Scientific American April 2010
- 9 Environmental Boundaries We Don’t Want to Cross by Brandon Keim September 23, 2009 Wired.com