2016–17 South Pacific cyclone season: Difference between revisions

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	During May 7, the FMS started to monitor Tropical Disturbance 22F that had developed within a trough of low ~~presure~~ about {{convert\|470\|km\|mi\|round=5\|abbr=on}} to the northeast of Suva, Fiji. Amid generally favorable environmental conditions, Tropical Depression 22F developed southwest of American Samoa on 9 May.<ref>{{cite report\|title=Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 issued from RSMC Nadi May 090235 UTC \|url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090000.htm \|archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/6qKqyrL2L?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090000.htm \|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service \|date=9 May 2017 \|archivedate=9 May 2017 \|accessdate=11 May 2017 \|deadurl=yes \|df= }}</ref> Just three hours later, the system intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale, and was named ''Ella'' by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS).<ref>{{cite report\|title=Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC Nadi May 090447 UTC \|url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090300.htm \|archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/6qKqyRcMM?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090300.htm \|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service \|date=9 May 2017 \|archivedate=9 May 2017 \|accessdate=11 May 2017 \|deadurl=yes \|df= }}</ref>		During May 7, the FMS started to monitor Tropical Disturbance 22F that had developed within a trough of low pressure about {{convert\|470\|km\|mi\|round=5\|abbr=on}} to the northeast of Suva, Fiji. Amid generally favorable environmental conditions, Tropical Depression 22F developed southwest of American Samoa on 9 May.<ref>{{cite report\|title=Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 issued from RSMC Nadi May 090235 UTC \|url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090000.htm \|archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/6qKqyrL2L?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090000.htm \|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service \|date=9 May 2017 \|archivedate=9 May 2017 \|accessdate=11 May 2017 \|deadurl=yes \|df= }}</ref> Just three hours later, the system intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale, and was named ''Ella'' by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS).<ref>{{cite report\|title=Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC Nadi May 090447 UTC \|url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090300.htm \|archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/6qKqyRcMM?url=http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/WTPS12-NFFN_201705090300.htm \|publisher=Fiji Meteorological Service \|date=9 May 2017 \|archivedate=9 May 2017 \|accessdate=11 May 2017 \|deadurl=yes \|df= }}</ref>
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Revision as of 07:21, 27 June 2018

2016–17 South Pacific cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed	November 12, 2016
Last system dissipated	May 15, 2017
Strongest storm

Name	Donna
• Maximum winds	205 km/h (125 mph) (10-minute sustained)
• Lowest pressure	935 hPa (mbar)

Seasonal statistics
Total disturbances	22
Total depressions	12
Tropical cyclones	4
Severe tropical cyclones	2
Total fatalities	3 total
Total damage	≥ $5 million (2016 USD)
Related articles
2016–17 Australian region cyclone season 2016–17 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19

The 2016–17 South Pacific cyclone season was the least active South Pacific cyclone season since the 2011–12 season, with only four tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. Two of the four systems developed into severe tropical cyclones on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. The season officially ran from November 1, 2016 until April 30, 2017. However, May featured two post-season systems: Donna and Ella, of which the former was the strongest post-season South Pacific tropical cyclone ever recorded in that month. Overall, 22 tropical disturbances were monitored by a combination of the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's MetService.

Official advisories regarding tropical cyclones in this basin were issued by the FMS through the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, the BoM through the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) in Brisbane and MetService through the TCWC in Wellington. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attached a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that formed in or moved into the basin while the JTWC designated significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all used the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimated sustained windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained windspeeds over a 1-minute period, which were subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS).

Seasonal forecasts

Source/Record	Tropical Cyclone	Severe Tropical Cyclone	Ref
Record high:	1997–98: 16	1982–83:10
Record low:	2011–12: 3	2008–09: 0
Average (1969-70 - 2015-16):	7.3	—
NIWA October	8-10	>5
Fiji Meteorological Service	5-7	3-5
NIWA February	6	2
Region	Chance of above average	Average number	Actual activity
Western South Pacific	65%	7	1
Eastern South Pacific	52%	10	4
Source:BOM's South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook.

Ahead of the cyclone season, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2016. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak La Nina conditions occurring during the season. The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2016–17 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.4. At least five of the tropical cyclones were expected to become Category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while four could become Category 4 severe tropical cyclones; they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur. In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.

The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 65% chance of seeing activity above its average of 7 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 52% chance of seeing activity above its average of 10 tropical cyclones. Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between five and six tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.3 cyclones. At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to become Category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while one or two were predicted to peak as a Category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone. They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located, within the Coral Sea to the west of the International Dateline. This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.

Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory. As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located to the west of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline. The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that Fiji, New Zealand, Samoa, Tokelau, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, the Solomon and Cook Islands had a normal risk of being impacted by a tropical cyclone or ex tropical cyclone. They also predicted that Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Niue had an elevated chance of being impacted, while it was thought unlikely that French Polynesia, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands would be affected by a tropical cyclone. The FMS's outlook predicted that Fiji and Tonga had an elevated risk, while Tuvalu, French Polynesia and Kiribati, were thought to have a low to reduced chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone. The outlook also predicted that New Caledonia, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna were thought to have a normal chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone. It was thought that there was an elevated risk of the Solomon Islands being impacted by at least one severe tropical cyclone, while other areas such as Fiji, New Caledonia, Niue, Samoa, French Polynesia and Tuvalu, had a normal to reduced chance of being impacted by a severe tropical cyclone.

An updated tropical cyclone outlook was issued by the Island Climate Update during February 2017, as the predicted La Nina conditions had not materialised and the season had produced no tropical cyclones. The outlook reported that around six tropical cyclones were now expected to occur, within the South Pacific between February and the end of the season in April. As a result, the season overall was now expected to below average, however, many islands were still expected to have a near normal risk of a tropical cyclone impacting them.

Seasonal summary

After a near average but destructive tropical cyclone season during the previous year, the first tropical disturbance of the season developed to the north-northeast of Niue during November 12. However, over the next few months, no named tropical cyclones developed. This was attributed to a number of factors, including a poorly organised South Pacific Convergence Zone and a predicted La Nina episode not developing. Four months after the beginning of the season, the first named storm, Bart, developed on February 21, making it one of the latest forming named tropical cyclones within the basin. No more cyclones were named for nearly two months after this, until the system that became Severe Tropical Cyclone Cook formed. The most active period of the season in terms of cyclone formation actually occurred outside the official bounds of the season, with both Severe Tropical Cyclone Donna and Tropical Cyclone Ella being named in May.

Systems

Tropical Depression 04F

Tropical depression (Australian scale)

Duration	December 13 – December 23
Peak intensity	45 km/h (30 mph) (10-min); 998 hPa (mbar)

This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (March 2017)

During 12 December a tropical disturbance formed northwest of island Fiji and had developed into the tropical depression.It moved southwards and after moved around.During 20 December it moved over Fiji.

Tropical Depression 05F

Tropical depression (Australian scale)

Duration	December 21 – December 26
Peak intensity	Winds not specified; 1005 hPa (mbar)

This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (March 2017)

A tropical disturbance formed east of island Fiji.It had developed into the tropical depression during 22 December. It moved westwards and dissipated 26 December.