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Season Summary

Location of advisories

Tropical Cyclone Outlooks: BMKG

BOM: Western // Northern // Eastern

JTWC: Indian Ocean // South Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Ocean Warnings:

BMKG: 01 // 02

BOM: Western 1 // Western 2 // Northern 1 // Northern 2 // Eastern 1 // Eastern 2

JTWC (South Indian Ocean): 01 // 02 // 03

JTWC (South Pacific Ocean): 01 // 02 // 03

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletins:

BOM: Western 1 // Western 2 // Northern 1 // Northern 2 // Eastern 1 // Eastern 2

Archives: BMKG // JTWC

BOM: Western // Northern // Eastern

BOM analysis, including unpublished BOM designations: BUFR // ECMWF validator

Seasonal forecasts

As how the section is displayed, I am dissatisfied with the content. Indian Ocean Dipole is not mentioned in any of the given references (NIWA and BOM), so this should go. The sentence starting with "This meant that ocean temperatures within the region were near to warmer than average..." is vague and I don't see this in either ref on the article. A sentence talking about the average to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north of Australia having an influence on this outlook should be on the article as it is cited in the BOM ref. Now, regarding regional boundaries: as it stands, the article poorly explains the boundaries. Only two longitudes given for each region on the table is vague and explains it poorly. Not good enough. An explanation of the regional boundaries should be on the prose, as how currently an explanation of the whole region is on the prose – "the region as a whole between 90°E and 160°E". The prose must also explain the boundaries for each of the regions, namely Western region, Northwestern sub-region, Northern region and Eastern region. There is no link to other Misplaced Pages pages explaining these boundaries. I checked if tropical cyclone basins did tell about these regions, it did not. On the table "(1969-70 - 2019-20)" reads awkwardly and I believe the dashes should be longer. The article title itself has 2020–21 with a long dash. Now, the NIWA forecast is confusing. The prediction of 8 to 10 on the table reads in conjunction with the stats from BOM (record high, record low and average). They are not defined in the same region. NIWA is only a portion in the region and has a big portion outside the region. They are not consistent and I believe the NIWA stat should go. The info about "Eastern South Pacific" on the table is outside the region, that should go. Similarly, the last paragraph talking about the NIWA outlook is on the same matter and it is confusing. Only a portion within the basin and also counts a portion outside the basin. Either further explanation on the prose is given for the inconsistency, or it gets removed altogether.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 01:45, 3 November 2020 (UTC)

I strongly disagree with several of these proposed changes as I feel that the section already gives adequate weight to each of the forecasts and that it is presented in a way that isn't going to confuse readers. The so-called stats are not just from BoM but also take into account any tropical cyclones monitored by Jakarta or PNG NWS within the region. I also will not be removing the NIWA prediction from the box, as while it varies from the format that the BoM uses, it doesnt vary from the format generally used. I also note that the NIWA prediction is valid for the region even though it includes a bit outside of the region. While I know that my writing isn't the best I do not feel that we need to go in-depth and explain the boundaries used in the seasonal forecast, as it would just bloat the section out especially since they mean virtually nothing in the grand scheme of things. Also the stuff about the ocean temperatures is in the references while I am prepared to take out the reference to the Indian Ocean Diopole but not to BoM's forecast for the eastern South Pacific as it provides the reader with more context about what the BoM were thinking ahead of the season. I invite other editors such as @Hurricanehink, Weatherman27, Destroyeraa, Jasper Deng, and ChocolateTrain: to help resolve this content dispute. Jason Rees (talk) 18:27, 3 November 2020 (UTC)

Compromise text between Cyclonicallyderanged and Jason Rees's versions

I compared both versions side by side, and they're largely the same. One difference is whether the first paragraph should include both the BoM and the NIWA forecast. As they were both in October, I mention them both in the first paragraph, and used the second to talk more about AUS, and the third to talk about the NIWA. The proposed compromise first paragraph still discusses the La Nina conditions and the warmer waters around AUS. One difference is that it doesn't include the exact date for the first BoM outlook, so that is something for discussion. Another difference was whether to mention the average number of storms in each sub-region. I tend to believe that is more on the trivial side, as I think that's more of a general climatology, and it's sufficient just saying the BoM expected X% chance of increased storms in each region. For the 3rd paragraph, I kept the text by Cyclonicallyderanged that mentioned the lower activity early in the season, as well as Jason's text mentioning the possibility of a C5. Is the following a sufficient section/compromise? ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 15:52, 17 November 2020 (UTC)

@Hurricanehink: FYI, I reverted back to the revision before the edit warring. The compromise looks good IMO. ~ Destroyeraa🌀 16:41, 17 November 2020 (UTC)

Pinging both @CyclonicallyDeranged: and @Jason Rees: to see what they think of the compromise. 🌀Weatherman27🏈 (chat with me!). 20:42, 17 November 2020 (UTC)

Great you are stepping in to work on the content. The text at large I am happy with. There are however a few spots within the text I wish to point out that Hurricanehink has included in the text but have not yet been addressed in the discussion: ––The NIWA outlook is not named "the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook", it is named "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook". The Island Climate Update is a monthly report on the current situation in Pacific, including the current and predicted state of La Nina, while it does not discuss cyclonic predictions. ––May I ask is it 'BoM' or 'BOM'? The bureau's article right now reads 'BOM'. Otherwise it may be better to write the bureau's name in full. Currently 'BoM' is only used twice in the text. ––It would be great to wikilink MetService and NIWA. I believe the University of Newcastle and Météo-France also contributed to NIWA's outlook, while the FMS was not stated in the outlook, but 'Pacific Island National Meteorological Services' was acknowledged. ––Neither NIWA or BOM's outlooks cite the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as an influence to the outlook, or did you add that in as an assumption that the IOD had an influence? ––The sentence "expected an average to slightly above average number of tropical cyclones was expected for the season" has "expected" written twice. ––It appears the acknowledgement from BOM's outlook that the first TC typically forms earlier than normal, in mid-December, during La Nina seasons, is missing in the text. ––The info "The outlook expected for at least three of the tropical cyclones to intensify into severe tropical cyclones" from NIWA's outlook, I believe, encompasses the region, the Southwest Pacific, as a whole. It is not predicted at least 3 STCs will form within the smaller area that is within the Aus region. The info about the risk of a Cat 5 forming can stay as this prediction does not encompass the SW Pacific as a whole. ––The BOM and NIWA outlooks were issued 8 days apart so just saying 'October 2020' is fine, 'mid-October 2020' is also fine. ––The averages for each sub-region are all right to be not in the text and okay just on the table. ––By the way the table is not in this discussion, there were changes to the table as well. ––I saw some days ago the BOM had also issued more outlooks more specific to each region. They have some info I feel are important, but I have not yet bothered to put on Misplaced Pages. The info I was supposed to add but haven't done so is the following: The Northwestern sub-region had a probability of two tropical cyclones crossing the Western Australian coast, with a significant risk of at least one of these to be a severe tropical cyclone. Another info I considered adding is the following: The bureau also advised that cyclone kits include a supply of face masks and hand sanitisers, owing to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic. ––Hope you can talk about it.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 06:46, 18 November 2020 (UTC)

I believe that the IOD was added as it has an effect on tropical cyclone development in part of the basic that encompasses the Australia region. I am not too sure though, as I am not very familiar with that area. I don't have much time for long replies, but I largely agree with what you are proposing here. 🌀Weatherman27🏈 (chat with me!). 09:29, 18 November 2020 (UTC)

@CyclonicallyDeranged: I agree with adding the part about Covid, because the 2020 Atl season includes it, and we're still in the middle of a pandemic. I hope the vaccine comes out soon, but add it for good measure. ~ Destroyeraa🌀 14:40, 18 November 2020 (UTC)

I corrected the name of the SPAC outlook. As for BoM or BOM, traditionally we have lowercased the "o", which incidentally is how the BoM stylizes it themselves. I removed the Indian Ocean Dipole (not in source), and the double "expected" in the 2nd para. I opted not to include the bit about the possibility of an early-forming storm. That seems a bit on the trivial side, as it's only one storm, and if the first storm doesn't form until January, then that sentence will stick out. I can't imagine a similar type of sentence occurring in an Atlantic season article, where the first storm's formation date doesn't have a huge effect on the seasonal activity. The seasonal forecast covers the entire season. On that note, I removed the bit about 3 severe cyclones and the potential C5 cyclone, as CD is correct, that is for the SPAC as a whole. I also agree with adding the bit about Covid, and the potential for two Western Australian landfalls. Does the proposed text work now? ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 15:48, 18 November 2020 (UTC)

I've seen the acronym fairly irregularly while using the website. Google search finds BoM and BOM used just as frequent as each other. News reports and the bureau's app have other things going. I would prefer writing the name in full. The early cyclone idea came not just from the cited outlook but from watching the news on the telly, and I have seen online news explaining it such as this one which mentions it twice, which led me to believe this was important and not trivial. It would alert people that the risk would come earlier than normal and would better prepare them before the season began. If in fact no cyclones form until January, this demonstrates that the outlook was off, and past events have proven that forecasts don't always eventuate as described, and that is to be expected at any year. The fact Atlantic hurricane seasons do not give this info might mean that this info is unique and more relevant to the Australian people. Yes the text is a lot better than before. We have not yet discussed the table, or will there be no table?--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 16:15, 18 November 2020 (UTC)

You say "a bit on the trivial side, as it's only one storm" and "doesn't have a huge effect on the seasonal activity". I will use this analogy on a past season, our beloved Atlantic hurricanes of 1992. Very inactive season overall. Let us look at the storms in that year individually. So according to User:Hurricanehink's idea, we will regard the first storm of the season with a unremarkable name of Andrew to be "a bit on the trivial side, as it's only one storm" and the fact it "doesn't have a huge effect on the seasonal activity". We will not include storm Andrew on the 1992 article. Further examples are 1980, 1983 and 2001. Let's regard Allen, Alicia or Allison to be trivial as each of these are only one storm and each have little effect on their respective seasonal activity. P.S. Come to think of it, Hurricanehink may have misunderstood what was meant by an earlier than normal TC from the seasonal outlook.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 15:29, 19 November 2020 (UTC)

Well, we already note that the season begins on November 1st, so in theory that's enough notice that people should be prepared for storms. Also, regarding the 1992 season, there was a storm in April - that is a very early storm formation. Andrew was rather late in the season, in August. I only meant it trivial to highlight the potential for an earlier than normal storm, and that the early formation date doesn't have a huge effect on seasonal activity. The first storm could form in January and yet it be a very busy season. As for BoM, we shouldn't always write it out in full, since we use the acronym so much in the article. As for BoM or BOM, I still think we should defer to what the agency uses (with the lowercase o). As for the table, I think we if we have any more seasonal forecasts specifically for the AUS basin, we should add one. But with only one forecast for the basin, I think it's better to write in prose. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 15:54, 19 November 2020 (UTC)

Great. So when can Misplaced Pages have the text onto article?--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 14:20, 20 November 2020 (UTC)

I added it back in. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 16:02, 21 November 2020 (UTC)

Good--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 22:01, 21 November 2020 (UTC)

Compromise text
In October 2020, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) issued their tropical cyclone outlook for the 2020–21 season, and in the same month, the agency contributed towards the Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, along with New Zealand's MetService, NIWA and the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS). Each of the outlooks accounted for analogue seasons and the effects of various climate drivers, which included the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Below average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and atmospheric conditions indicated a La Niña pattern, and it was declared that a La Niña had emerged on 29 September 2020. The BoM predicted that the La Niña pattern will persist into early 2021, and waters north of Australia and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean will be warmer than average in the coming three months. The bureau also advised that cyclone kits include a supply of face masks and hand sanitisers, owing to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic.

The BoM expected an average to slightly above average number of tropical cyclones for the season. The agency predicted a 66% chance of above average activity for the region as a whole, compared with the average of 11 tropical cyclones. They also predicted that the Western and Northwestern sub-regions both had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual, the Northern region had a 57% chance of above average activity, and the Eastern region had a 67% chance of more tropical cyclones than the average. The Northwestern sub-region had a probability of two tropical cyclones crossing the Western Australian coast, with a significant risk of at least one of these to be a severe tropical cyclone.

The Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook covered a portion of the Australian region that comprised waters surrounding Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, the Coral Sea, and the northern Tasman Sea including Norfolk Island. The outlook called for a reduced level of tropical cyclone activity in the early season, from November to January, but an increased level of activity in the late season, from February to April. Near normal activity during the season was expected for Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, while an elevated level of activity was expected in the Coral Sea and the northern Tasman Sea, especially during the late season.

1. "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for northwest Australia". Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
2. "Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory". Bureau of Meteorology. 20 October 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
3. ^ Cite error: The named reference Aus TC Outlook was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
4. "South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 20 October 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020.
5. "Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory". Bureau of Meteorology. 20 October 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
6. "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for northwest Australia". Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
7. Cite error: The named reference NIWA was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

Season or Seasonal

Now I am confused. Is it supposed to be 'Seasonal summary' and 'Seasonal forecasts'?--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 21:11, 26 November 2020 (UTC)

@CyclonicallyDeranged: Stick with 'Season'. I was confused about this too a long time ago. Typhoon2013 (talk) 05:43, 27 November 2020 (UTC)

It should be 'seasonal' because those sections are explaining the season as a whole, and 'season' is never an adjective to describe things.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 06:47, 27 November 2020 (UTC)

Subtropical low

@Typhoon2013: I'm not sure the "subtropical low" warrants inclusion or is even a thing that exists. The outlook refers to a system southeast of PNG but there's only a very weak disturbance south of the country, nothing subtropical. Unless they mean wayyy southeast on PNG and are referring to an extratropical low southeast of New Caledonia which is outside the basin. I don't believe we've included subtrops from the BOM before either as they don't warn on them, but I could be wrong. ~ Cyclonebiskit (chat) 05:27, 27 November 2020 (UTC)

@Cyclonebiskit: Me neither but I just added it in just in case. I do not mind at this point to support keeping it or taking it out. Same here, I do not recall any system by the BoM that classifies a system as a subtropical low nor I find something interesting in the satellite animations. Let us wait first I guess in the next bulletins should this "transition" into an actual TL. Typhoon2013 (talk) 07:41, 27 November 2020 (UTC)

So is this subtropical low based on the Coral Sea 3-day outlook, and nowhere else? No mention of intensity, exact location, pressure reading. Only one update per day. So bare. (By the way, I am cringing also with the other tropical low 01U for relying on the 3-day outlooks that do not mention the low's windspeed and update only once per day, and weather charts. BOM issues no bulletins on it.)--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 06:55, 27 November 2020 (UTC)

@CyclonicallyDeranged: Yeah. Many of the minor TLs are mentioned there. The BoM doesn't issue forecast tracks unless they predict it to become a TC. The BoM also is quite confusing with their designations because they mostly do not mention them anywhere. Typhoon2013 (talk) 00:46, 28 November 2020 (UTC)

@ChocolateTrain: Just linking from what we have just discussed here. Thoughts? Typhoon2013 (talk) 12:58, 4 December 2020 (UTC)

So from what I gather, the article will only write about the lows and cyclones with a 'xxU' designation. Despite the Sub-TL getting a mention on the bureau's TC outlook, the Sub-TL is not notable as it got no 'U' designation. Okay...--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 19:12, 4 December 2020 (UTC)

BoM or BOM

I highlighted this problem before and it has arisen again. I was told it should be BoM. But the recent edits to the article have it written as BOM. So again, which one? In case you do not know yet, I believe it should be BOM. Also, Misplaced Pages's article for the Aussie bureau has it written as BOM.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 18:28, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

The BoM website uses a lower case "o", since it just stands for "of". Plus we've long used "BoM". IMO that's what we should use. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 19:55, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

@Hurricanehink: The article has loads of BOM right now. Explain this? Switching from BoM to BOM everywhere in the article is unacceptable. Still no explanation why the bureau's article still says, and has been throughout this time, BOM. Therefore, I am definitely not buying the "we've long used BoM" argument.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 20:02, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

Also the home page of the bureau's website right now has one case of 'BOM' being used with no sign of 'BoM'. So I am not buying the "the BoM website uses a lower case "o"" argument either.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 20:35, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

As I pointed out earlier, the Bom uses a lowercase "o" on their page describing acronyms, and here as well. Also, this website from Western Australia uses BoM. I imagine the O might occasionally be uppercase if someone types it out using the shift button, or if it's in all caps. Since the "o" only stands for "of", I don't think it should be capitalized, as the "o". Also, not that it matters too much in this article, but for a while, Misplaced Pages has used lowercase "o", so consistency is nice, unless there is a compelling reason to change it. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 21:08, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

The ref from the linked page has BOM written all over it. Well? Misplaced Pages may have done it wrong all along. By the way, the reasons for having BoM are not compelling at all. Last but not least you still have not explained why the bureau's article still says 'BOM'.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 22:07, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

So it appears both are used. I think we should defer to the Bureau explaining it on their acronym page. I did explain how you might get BoM if someone held down the shift button/caps lock. It’s a really small thing, one letter changing. Do you have a strong reason to go against established precedent on Misplaced Pages? Hurricanehink mobile (talk) 23:13, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

Look at the Misplaced Pages page for BOM and look at the BOM's home page. What established precedent? Of all things, it should be BOM given how many times the news reports them.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 03:22, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

I guess I had in mind some of our better articles in the basin, like Cyclone Monica, Cyclone Ada, and Cyclone Althea. Since the BoM/BOM clearly uses both, I think we can use either, as long as we're consistent within an article. I don't think it's worth changing all of the other articles. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 16:02, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

• Support BoM as the O stands for of and feels more accurate. We can always go in and change the acronym on the BoM wiki page. Jason Rees (talk) 22:17, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

  I would not be changing things without first finding out how the term got in that article first.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 22:59, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

• I'm noting the term prisoner-of-war gets abbreviated to POW even though the O is for 'of' so it is not always lowercase.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 22:30, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

  lol this is an interesting find while looking up other BOMs. Bill of materials or BOM.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 22:36, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

If you want to know when something was added to a page, you can use WikiBlame like here. As the creator of the Bureau of Meteorology page, I can't think of any reason not to include both cases so I've done so. Graham87 06:25, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

Looks like it has changed to include both as if they are both acceptable. hahahaha. I think if TC outlooks and bulletins the bureau issues do not use the acronym at all in their writing, it would be best to avoid writing the acronym on Misplaced Pages too. Also, merely writing the acronym is lazy.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 07:54, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

If you think it is just lazy to abbreviate the Bureau of Meteorology to BoM or BOM, then I hope you enjoy spelling out Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika every time we need to reference them in this article.Jason Rees (talk) 15:15, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

Completely irrelevant and WP:POINTY, since that agency abbreviates their name on their website, BMKG. Bureau of Meteorology, meanwhile, never abbreviates on the most visited pages on their website.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 15:42, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

Not that irrelevant - Jason is right, it would be too much to write out every agency every time we use it. Whether it's BOM or BoM is a very minor stylistic choice, but writing out "Bureau of meteorology" a dozen times in an article adds up to a lot of unnecessary space. Imagine if the 2020 AHS wrote out National Hurricane Center every time. It would be insane. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 16:11, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

It isn't at all irrelevant or pointy as we would want to maintain consistency and spell out the BMKG in full every time, if we are made to spell out the Bureau of Meteorology on every single occasion we use it within the article which is what you seem to be wanting by calling us lazy.

NHC appears frequently in their website and are on a number of links. BOM, meanwhile, hardly ever gets used on their website. Can't compare the two agencies. When the bureau refers to themselves on their website, it is always Bureau of Meteorology, and Misplaced Pages should do the same...or it's laziness.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 17:04, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

I've shown several links with the abbreviation. It's not laziness, it's saving time and space. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 17:17, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

I am referring to BOM's website at large. Your links are merely a handful of pages from the thousands of webpages from BOM. 99% of all pages refer to themselves as Bureau of Meteorology. Hope you understand. Misplaced Pages can always save time and space by referring tropical cyclone as TC, hurricane as HU, tropical low as TL, typhoon as TY, etc.--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 17:24, 30 November 2020 (UTC)

Convert template

I sense an edit war going on. Can we just leave them as how it is? With or without convert template, it reads the same way, so it is good either way. So how about we not change it from one way to the other???--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 09:27, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

@CyclonicallyDeranged: There are two reasons why I believe we should not use the convert templates. Firstly, they introduce an unnecessary amount of complex and clunky source code into the article when all that is required is a main number and a bracketed number. Secondly, such templates make it much more difficult for new editors to contribute. Misplaced Pages already has a ridiculous number of policies, procedures and alphabet soup terms which take a long time to learn properly, so the last thing a new editor needs is the extra discouragement and difficulty provided by unnecessary Misplaced Pages source code and template-specific syntax. It is much simpler to just convert the value on Google or by calculator. ChocolateTrain (talk) 09:34, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

Also pinging @Beraniladri19 so he can see my reasoning. ChocolateTrain (talk) 09:36, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

Isn't the convert template supposed to do that purpose: to not have to grab a calculator or Google to do the conversion? Oh well, since it is now about which method is easier: to do a conversion manually, or to put on a template with a strict coding...--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 09:50, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

@CyclonicallyDeranged and ChocolateTrain: I'm just making to make editors easier doing by inserting input without converting again, but if you think it is problematic so I just stop doing that. As CyclonicallyDeranged said that 'to not have to grab a calculator or Google to do the conversion', I just doing that only. Beraniladri19🌀🌀 Talk 03:46, 4 January 2021 (UTC)

Strongest storm of the season

@CyclonicallyDeranged: Imogen is the strongest storm of the season according to pressure Dam222 🌋 (talk) 09:56, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

Why ask that? Won't Imogen be the strongest cyclone anyway for being the only TC so far for the whole season?--CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 10:00, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

02U and Imogen is strong because both have a pressure of 991, so it has to be added to the template. Dam222 🌋 (talk) 10:06, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

@Dam222: 02U still has stronger winds. Once Imogen's winds reach 40 knots, we can add it. ChocolateTrain (talk) 10:08, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

Imogen article

Uh, shouln't Imogen have its own article? Basically I think that every storm that is either significantly strong or strikes land should have an article. Imogen struck land, so could someone please make an article for Imogen? -AwesomeHurricaneBoss (talk) 10:29, 14 January 2021 (UTC)

@AwesomeHuricaneBoss: Unfortunately don't think so. Imogen barely had an impacts and no deaths; the storm's summary and impacts is enough to be fit in the season article section. Typhoon2013 (talk) 01:57, 17 January 2021 (UTC)

Kimi Article

Since Tropical Cyclone Kimi is currently a threat to the city of Cairns, I have made a draft for the article. Feel free to check it out and help me expand the MH section with new content. Thank you!Robloxsupersuperhappyface (talk) 05:29, 17 January 2021 (UTC)

08U

Whoever does the archiving of sources, could I please ask a source for a source for the TC outlook for the Western Region on 01/15? This is the formation date of 08U. Typhoon2013 (talk) 07:57, 18 January 2021 (UTC)

I cannot capture the page with a web archiver, but here's what was in FQAU21 AMMC 151921 high seas forecast.

Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC Low 1001hPa near 11S137E. Forecast 1003hPa near 12S138E at 170000UTC.

Supportstorm (talk) 20:01, 20 January 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 17 January 2021 for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 20 January 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region: At 12:00 WST Sunday 17 January, Tropical Cyclone Joshua (07U) was located near 18.1S 90.3E, approximately 950 kilometres southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The low is forecast to move west of 90E and out of the Western Region on Sunday afternoon.

A track map and further information can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on: Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (08U) lies over northeastern parts of the Top End of the Northern Territory near 12.0S 13.7E at 1200 WST Sunday 17 January. This low is expected to move west across the Top End or adjacent waters, and is expected to move over the Timor Sea north of Western Australia during Tuesday. It is not expected to develop as it tracks to the west over the Top End, however once over waters north of Western Australia there is some potential for development from midweek. The risk of development increases in the latter half of this week as 08U tracks to the west or southwest, and by the end of the week it may approach the northwest of Western Australia.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Low

There is also the potential for another tropical low to develop south or southwest of Java this week. If a low forms in this area, it would be expected to move west and is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day. Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20% Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50% The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Idk if this is necessary, but I'm currently looking at old tropical lows and cyclones of this season, and I came across this.

BrownieKing talk 11:54, 1 February 2021 (UTC)

Cyclone Lucas???

I'm seeing reliable sources which explicitly mention Tropical Low 08U as Tropical Cyclone Lucas, including the NOAA which referred to the storm as such on Twitter. I've also searched on Google for "Cyclone Lucas" and several articles have mentioned it as such (just one example) even with one showing a cone with the C1 icon in blue. Did we miss something here? Hurricaneboy23 (page) * (talk) 21:42, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

@Hurricaneboy23: We didnt miss anything as the BoM didnt name 08U as Lucas.Jason Rees (talk) 00:50, 23 January 2021 (UTC)

Sorry, that isn't an explanation..at all. There are several reliable sources referring it to as Cyclone Lucas. The officials may have messed up or know something we don't know. Hurricaneboy23 (page) * (talk) 15:33, 23 January 2021 (UTC)

@Hurricaneboy23: I am sorry that my explanation wasn't sufficient for you, but it is the BoM (Not NOAA or the Media) who would have named the system as Lucas and they didn't name it Lucas regardless of what your reliable sources say. I know this because I saw several of the BoM's advisories which didn't mention a name. On that twitter feed I see that a scientist from the UKMO commented on that NOAA twitter feed saying: "BoM never actually named the system but kept it as a ‘tropical low’." As a result, we do know that the name wasn't officially assigned to 08U and remains on the list for future use.Jason Rees (talk) 16:02, 23 January 2021 (UTC)

They could of easily released an advisory of it as a TROPICAL CYCLONE then reverted it to a tropical low as it was making landfall. A source like NOAA, yes NOAA, claiming it as Tropical Cyclone Lucas is enough to say there was some contradictory info here. This knowledge I already know. Hurricaneboy23 (page) * (talk) 16:04, 23 January 2021 (UTC)

Taking a look at the BoM cyclone outlook, both tropical lows are listed with their numerical designations (08U and 10U) rather than any name. The BoM will reference any cyclones that weaken to tropical low status by name (ex: ex-Lucas) so we can be assured that the storm wasn't named. — Iunetalk 16:11, 23 January 2021 (UTC)

Many of the news press gave info on the predicted cyclone and put the name Lucas on their headlines. The press probably did that to grab people’s attention about the impending risk when the low was way offshore and forecast to become a biggie.—CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 03:16, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

Per CyclonicallyDeranged. It is not the media who names cyclones, it is the BoM (for this case). Typhoon2013 (talk) 08:36, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

The media still named the low Cyclone Lucas regardless of what the bureau does which was what happened here. It happened in the same manner for previous cyclones in history. The media did that to attract attention from readers. New Zealand did this similarly for Cyclone Cook even when it became extra-tropical a few years ago. So it is likely there will be two cyclones going to be labelled Lucas, this and a future cyclone. CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 07:16, 25 January 2021 (UTC)

Yes, there were news articles which speculatively called the tropical low "Lucas", but the storm was very much not named by the official WMO-designated RSMC. Only one storm will be officially named "Lucas", and it hasn't formed yet. — Iunetalk 22:10, 25 January 2021 (UTC)

A low on Gulf of Carpentaria

Hi! I'm looking at BoM's Outlooks, and i saw this on the Northern Region.

"A monsoon trough is forming across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and the Top End, with a low about 120km east of Nhulunbuy at 9am on the morning of Sunday 24 January. The low is expected to continue to develop as it moves slowly east or southeast through the Gulf of Carpentaria".

Does it mean, there's another tropical low formed?

That's the link.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml

I'm just confused, sorry.

BrownieKing talk 06:39, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

@BrownieKing: They only mentioned "low" and not tropical. So at the mean time it's just a Low-pressure area; we'll see tomorrow or in the coming outlooks where this fully develops into something tropical - in which we add in the season totals. Typhoon2013 (talk) 08:28, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

Developing tropical low...more cyclones incoming. CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 07:18, 25 January 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Low 12U

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml In the link, it is mentioned that Another tropical low (12U) may form --. I wonder if there's criteria in Misplaced Pages that doesn't allow it to be listed, or if it wasn't up to date. Actually, what systems are listed in this article, for example why 06U is listed at the end with other systems? It would be helpful if there's explanation about what standards Misplaced Pages use for Australian region TCs, like how BoM differently states the systems, too.Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 01:14, 26 January 2021 (UTC) ~

@Luke Kern Choi 5: I wonder too.—CyclonicallyDeranged (talk) 04:37, 26 January 2021 (UTC)

In fact, I heard that if there is strong model agreement for a future cyclone, BoM would tag an area worth watching, regardless if a low pressure exists there or not. Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 09:41, 26 January 2021 (UTC)

We try and monitor all tropical lows and designated lows publically montiored, however, systems like 12U are a bit of a grey area. My personal view is that they should go in the article as after all they were numbered and we would include pre-tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. However, if they dissipate without much fanfare or developing into a tropical cyclone then they belong in other systems. I am not sure about what we are calling 06U being in other systems - will need to look into it at some point when I'm not busy.Jason Rees (talk) 18:41, 26 January 2021 (UTC)

@CyclonicallyDeranged: @Luke Kern Choi 5: Sorry I just seen this message, and I personally want to address this too. It would make sense to add in all designated TLs immediately to the storms section mentioned by BoM, however we see some cases where the BoM mentions something along the lines of "the tropical low may form..." (or "forming") or "the tropical low is developing..." I personally view that we should add it in if they do not mention those quotes. Me and CT have been checking the outlooks each day and if we see the BoM designating the system we add it in the table here above this talk page. It isn't just 12U, but it is also 08U - where the BoM designated it on 15/1, but didn't become a full-fledged TL on 17/1. Thoughts on this, @ChocolateTrain:? Typhoon2013 (talk) 06:54, 28 January 2021 (UTC)

Total number of tropical lows / BoM

Hi, I found this video from BoM, (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcigF5Ofd7E) and it states that total of 15 tropical lows formed, which probably tells that they only considered numbered tropical lows. However, it is still uncertain if 13U and 14U is the TL from February. Hence, I would like for someone to contact BoM to clarify which systems they consider as tropical lows (also regarding the unnamed tropical low in December). Also, I wonder if it's also possible to ask them to simply show the summary of the season (operational data) when the season ends for source uses. Thanks, Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 23:38, 24 February 2021 (UTC)

@Luke Kern Choi 5: That would be a good idea. The BoM in fact does have a post-analytical data for all TCs (does not include the minor TLs). It was a bit weird how BoM did not designate the December TL, but I'd keep it since it does have a section in regards on some impacts. Typhoon2013 (talk) 00:36, 25 February 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Watch for TL (February 27 - Present)

Hey everybody. So, the BoM issued tropical cyclone watches for the developing low (Feb.27 - Present):

Headline: Tropical low may produce gales about exposed parts of the north tropical coast as it develops into a tropical cyclone, most likely on Tuesday.

Areas affected: Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Cape Flattery to Lucinda, including Cairns, Port Douglas, and Innisfail.

Cancelled zones: None.

Can someone add this? Thanks. :)

BrownieKing talk 02:44, 28 February 2021 (UTC)

Archiving

@BrownieKing: and @DavidTheMeteorologist:, remember archive your sources, the BOM and JTWC refresh after six hours to the next update!!DachshundLover82 (talk) 17:16, 1 March 2021 (UTC)

10L Image

@FleurDeOdile:, how is that image low quality. I’m not going to start an edit war. DachshundLover82 (talk) 17:17, 3 March 2021 (UTC)

Per Dashcuand here. The structure of the storm seems better than the first one imo. Fleur's image is good too but I think both qualities are the same, I personally don't think it is "garbage" though s what Fleur said in an edit summary. Typhoon2013 (talk) 21:36, 3 March 2021 (UTC)

@Typhoon2013:, yeah that’s why I liked the first one since the second one looks like just a messy swirl. Plus, Fleur hasn’t been kind with edit summaries recently. He curses a lot in a rude way, even at confused users. Sadly, when we try to be kind to him, he ignores us.DachshundLover82 (talk) 22:28, 3 March 2021 (UTC)

Not to get off topic much but here’s that edit summary https://en.m.wikipedia.org/Special:MobileDiff/1010061850 not to sure what to do about this behavior.DachshundLover82 (talk) 22:31, 3 March 2021 (UTC)

the image is literally of a dying TC. using images of dying TCs is never ok in the project. FleurDeOdile 22:39, 3 March 2021 (UTC)

project guidelines say a good peak image must be used on articles and not off peak stuff FleurDeOdile 22:45, 3 March 2021 (UTC)

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