Misplaced Pages

Weasel words by proxy

"Weasel wording by proxy" is when we quote an authority that uses the weasel word. It may result in disputations on the article, but at least it is a verifiable statement.

When we use this approach, we should take pains to specifically ascribe the weasely opinion to the quoted source, in the article. Otherwise it becomes wikipedia making a claim rather than reporting a claim someone else makes.

For example we might write: "The Institute for Scientific Conundrums (ISC) says that many scientists in water research question the findings of other scientists". Whether "many" scientists actually do question the findings of others or only a "few" do, is now irrelevant. All that matters is that someone has said so (and we know who it was). On the other hand, if we write: "Many scientists disagree with one another", based upon that ISC statement, now we have not only engaged in synthesis but instead of reporting a point of view, we have now adopted a specific point of view as though it were true. At that time the article becomes biased, even if we cite our source.

As before, it is not a good thing to rely on weasel words by proxy -- it probably leads to arguments. But at least it meets wikipedia standards and requirements.

• Aye! ~ UBeR 21:26, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Lists of claimants

Instead of using weasel words, we can actually list the proponents of each side of the argument. This certainly can work when there are not very many on either side. For example we might write: "Bill Clinton, The Pope, and the entire staff of the Pheonix Suns asserts that purple is a better color than green. John Muir, Teddy Roosevelt and the New York Jets disagree." These are all verifiable statements. And the reader may evaluate the sources and judge for themselves the superiority of one color over the other based upon who supports which view.

Some version of this may be required when we have an incomplete sample on one or both sides of the debate.

Counts or Polls

"Four out of Five dentists recommend Florida Beach Sand for those patients who grind sand in their teeth". This is a statement that is verifiable and gives a clear indication of how many are on each side of the debate. Of course, care must be taken not to . For example we might properly modify that statement to read "Four out of Five FLORIDA dentists surveyed recommend Florida Beach Sand for those patients who grind sand in their teeth". Or "Out of 12,000 dentists surveyed, 15 did not object to grinding sand between the teeth and of those 15, 12 declared Florida sand to be best for this purpose". It might also be appropriate to point out that "there are 300,000 dentists who did not reply to the survey, which was commissioned by the Florida Sand Users Association. Instead they marked the question as "idiotic" or tore it up."

In addition, there are times when it is appropriate to add the names of people following the hard count. This smacks of argument from authority, but it may be appropriate. (In any case it is acceptable per wikipedia policy). For example, the Misplaced Pages of 1616 might have properly noted (and cited) that "415 noted scientists, when polled, agreed that anyone teaching that the earth revolved around the sun should be burned. One scientist, Galileo is known to disagree").

Summary of Solutions

So we can go from:

Most Dentists Recommend Florida Beach Sand for grinding between the teeth"

to

There are Dentists who recommend Florida Beach Sand for grinding between the teeth. There are others who recommend other sands or who recommend not grinding sand between the teeth

or

The Florida Sand Users Association says that "Most Dentists Recommend Florida Sand for grinding between teeth".

or

Dr Fredrick Hoist, Sandra Summers and their son Ted feel that Florida Sand is best for Grinding Sand between the teeth. The American Dental Association has issued a statement condemning this practice.

or

When 300,000 dentists were surveyed on the practice of grinding sand between the teeth, 95% failed to respond. Of the 5% who responded, 12 recommended using Florida Beach Sand for this purpose.

--Blue Tie 13:28, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I find the above is overly terse; could you expand further upon it? Raymond Arritt 13:31, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Heh heh, wait for the Director's cut extended edition. --Blue Tie 14:56, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Let's not forget there are other words, such as predominant and prevailing, that reduce the margin of uncertainty to acceptable levels. --Skyemoor 15:45, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I don't see how. Without resorting to original research, what fraction of a total is "Predominate" and what fraction of a total is "Prevailing". Is a predominating amount more than a prevailing amount or vice versa? --Blue Tie 19:24, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

What do you expect from a socialist organization? The truth? Honesty? Facts? The United Nations is an international socialist organization, duh. Read their 'Universal Declaration of Human Rights'. Rights from a Socialist, poo, absolutely worthless. Even the paper it is written on is less valuable then when it was blank.

This is a discussion forum on a scientific subject for an encyclopedia; if you want to be taken seriously, please cite scientific references so that we can examine them for merit and possible content inclusion. --Skyemoor 16:24, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

On the basis this is the "most scientists are absolutely certain - (that their wives are not being warmed in bed by someone else)" ... The appropriate statement would be of the form "manmade CO2 is believed by the vast majority of the scientists on the main intergovernmental body on climate warming (the IPCC) to be the predominant cause of the recent observed worldwide increase in temperatures since reliable temperature measurements became available. However, opinion vary and the exact relationship between CO2 and global temperatures can only be estimated from historical data, most of which derives from before accurate worldwide measurements became available and which indicate that irrespective of manmade influence, temperatures have naturally changed in the past. There are therfore a considerable number of people outside the IPCC who interpret the historical data differently some going as far to dismiss the idea of manmade greenhouse warming entirely. What all agree however, is that only time will tell!"Mike 16:47, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Possible solution

How's this as a proposed new section? [this is only sample text, not the actual listings.

'Current positions

NOAA - issued report dated ____ stating global warming is manmade.

IPCC - Major UN Group, stated that global arming is "likely manmade."

EPA issued report dated___ that warming is manmade.

Freedom Foundation - issued statement that global warming is a natural cycle, dated ____/

what do people think? see you. --Sm8900 19:58, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Again, no. ~ UBeR 21:27, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Suggestion/votes please

This is a featured article and has been protected too long. I suggest the overarching NPOV discussion is sent to the FAR review to get an outcome from a wider audience. The protecting admin hasn't started a debate on what the other outstanding issues are so I will. Assuming the issue is weasel words (which is implied by the edit summary), I propose to have a straw poll and if the results look reasonable I will unblock the page starting with whatever the outcome is (and hope people respect it while we discuss further). I also won't vote myself so anyone who suspects me of whatever bias can be assured that at least by having me organise it one vote aginst them is removed. I don't want a flagged page (I think we should move down the pecking order one step at a time and a featured article first gets unfeatured before any other demotions). However, I don't want to prejudice the debate by choosing the options, so I invite User:UBeR to fill in option 2. PLEASE COULD EVERYONE WHO VOTES (once UBeR has filled in his choice) try to choose the best version for Misplaced Pages and not get pulled down partisan lines.--BozMo talk 14:57, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

SEE BELOW FOR VOTE.

Other discussion

# Neither (assuming we are talking about the lede). The first option is missing a key point: AGW is also ongoing, not just predicted in the future. On the second, I don't know which one would be selected, so I can't accede or refrain from it. --Skyemoor 15:27, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I would prefer an earlire version, essentially one pre the current edit war, where DF updated the intro. Specifically, this version. Can we sort out a version before beginning voting? Skyemoor, would that one be OK by you? William M. Connolley 15:30, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

OK, I accept this new version as the option 1, unless anyone disagrees. --BozMo talk 15:33, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Ok, that's fine by me, though we still need work on 'numerous' and 'few'. --Skyemoor 15:43, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

PLEASE DON'T VOTE UNTIL OPTION 2 IS SPECIFIED> I WON'T CLOSE FOR 24 HOURS after that point. --BozMo talk 15:41, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Keep protected until there is sensible discussion I was overjoyed to see that finally someone have locked the article to prevent the removal of the NPOV tag which was the very first step in bringing back some neutrality. Whoever did it - Well Done!. I believe the only approach which will work is to create a disambiguation page with links to many different pages both in favour and against the various ideas on greenhouse warming. Possibly the articles need to be as basic as "case for the IPPCC view on global warming" "Case against the IPCC view", "Case for solar variation", etc. etc. Each with a very tight remit so that it is impossible for the "other side" to delete evidence put forward by notable sources on some pretext such as "only climatologists have the insight to understand this issue"! What I'm saying is that on such a contentious range of issues, it is impossible to have one balanced article, and that the real need is to have balance within wikipedia by ensuring all points of views receive adequate coverage. Mike 16:14, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

ARTICLES are not protected to keep a particular version. They are protected to stop edit warring. As soon as this war is resolved the protect will come off. --BozMo talk 20:33, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

See also here. Raymond Arritt 20:44, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

This vote is not to settle all issues on the article, it is to try to stop the latest edit war. Please keep to this one issue in this section. --BozMo talk 18:28, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

This is called POV Forking, and is strongly discouraged. --Kim Bruning 16:54, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Should the current POV Forking that exists in the way of the Global Warming Controversy pages be melded in to this then?--Zeeboid 17:39, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Protect a bit longer. Instead of debating content forking, create a "Global Climate" Project or perhaps a "Global Climate Change" project, with a Project navigation box and so forth. I think one article could be a master article linking to all the others. --Blue Tie 19:20, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

The critics who have all sorts of issues should edit the other articles about the controversy about Global Warming. They don't have any valid scientific points, but there does exist a public debate which is fueled by a mix of right wing propaganda and a very poor understanding of basic science by the American public. This controversy exists in the real world, so one can write about it, just like there exists a controversy about the Theory of Evolution. But just like in case of evolution, this article is about the scientific theory as published in the leading scientific journals, not about the controversy surrounding the theory. A reference to the controvery is already included in the article.

The issue about the weasel words "few" etc. can be resolved by e.g. shifting the focus from number of scientists to the number of critical scientific articles in Science, Nature or other journals that are used by climate scientists. Then "few" becomes zero or perhaps some number of order one, and "numerous" becomes some easy to verify number of order 10^4 or so. Count Iblis 17:55, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I vote for outside mediation. Sorry to take a paltry third option, but this is starting to become too complicated. I don't claim to have followed every nuance of this, but I did want to weigh in, just to add some aditional voices, (since the one thing which Misplaced Pages values is a sense of several editors giving credence to any discussion). If that makes me neutral in the underlying issue, so be it. Feel free to post any further specific questions, if you wish. --Sm8900 19:39, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Here's an idea. Can we list some of the more notable organiations who state that global-warming is manmade? I believe that is quite a lot of groups. However, if anyone is still dubious, perhaps that is an objective way to make the point, without seeming to present theories as established scientific fact. --Sm8900 19:51, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

This would simply be a repeat of Scientific opinion on climate change. Raymond Arritt 20:08, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

To be more exact, it would be Scientific opinion on climate change#Statements_by_organizations ;-) --Stephan Schulz 20:12, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I'm so ashamed at this terrible mistake... ;-) Raymond Arritt 20:18, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Thanks so much for your helpful answers. it appears we have many articles reflecting the scope of the debate. Is it possible to link more prominently to these, more closely to the beginning of the article? Would that make evryone happy? thanks. --Sm8900 20:52, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Earlier than the second paragraph? William M. Connolley 20:55, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

You're right; we do link to it already, but perhaps average readers might overlook it. Perhaps we could do a more explicit link, such as for instance , "Please see Global warming controversy for organizations for and against this theory." how does that sound? --Sm8900 21:04, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Hmm, in answer to sm8900 (because this is an encyclopedia): There's no such thing as scientific fact, of course. (Unless you're looking for "empirical fact" perhaps? ) --Kim Bruning 21:20, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Kim Bruning, is it a fact that if I drop a rock on a glass, it will break? That's all i meant. And my whole comment was about how we should not try to present theories as fact.

Folks, can we please try here not to be too nit-picky with each others' answers please ? This discusion is long and complex enough, without picking over each others' every phrase. Thanks. --Sm8900 21:28, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Alright, I'm a scientist.... let's see, I happen to have a tea-glass right here. I'll do some science:

• takes glass outside
• picks up rock
• drops rock on glass
• glass does not break

Hmph, my initial experiment shows that rocks do not always break glasses. Apparently there's a bit more going on with this science thing. :-)

Sorry if you thought I was picking nits. In fact the concept that there's no such thing as a scientific fact is actually a fairly big point, and probably part of the cause of misunderstandings on several science articles on wikipedia :-/ it's usually quite central to the debate.

Scientists usually work on the basis of probabilities... if you drop a large enough rock on a glass often enough, the glass will eventually break. If we do some more experiments, we might be able to figure out a pretty decent table of odds, based on size, mass, and shape of the rock, and size, shape and type of glass.

The problem lots of people have with the global warming theory is that it's an actual scientific theory: It only gives people odds on how warm it will be tomorrow. In reality, it might actually be colder tomorrow (and the day after tomorrow), and then it might be warmer than the prediction for the day after that. How do we make sense of that, and how can we tell if the theory is true or not, on that basis? Well, that's the problem people are contending with here, I think. --Kim Bruning 18:11, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

• From someone who has not really edited this article before: having separate articles for the controversy and scientific positions of global warming may be a good idea, but the way it is currently done is just inadequate. One sentence cannot summarize what is essentially a contentious topic (and it is simply irrelevant whether the topic is contentious in scientific or political spheres - it is still contentious either way). While the ideal solution would be to write an entire two-paragraph section summarizing both the scientific opinion and the controversy articles here, and tagging both sections with {{main}} links to both articles, a simpler way to solve this would be with a navigation template at the top of the page, like several topics have. (See the Cuisine article for an example of what I'm thinking about.) Titoxd 03:25, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I can reasonably agree with this, but I'm sure there will be people crying undue weight. I wonder though, if both of this topics have lengthy articles of their own, how much weight these topics actually carry when we're talking about global warming. Like you said, perhaps not much weight in the scientific journals, but it's definitely a topic that people in general are concerned about and interested in. ~ UBeR 05:02, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

If I catch your implication, you seem to want to take the article out of the scientific realm and put it into "what is the popular opinion about this subject?". Sorry, since WP is a encyclopedia, we have to report the facts, not the whim of public opinion. --Skyemoor 18:20, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Not necessarily. If you want to "report the facts", as you say, you will have to report the fact that there is a controversy (regardless of the nature of the controversy), and give it its due weight. Giving it more than two short paragraph is granting undue weight; giving it one sentence means that the article fails WP:WIAFA §1.(b). Titoxd 01:38, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Again Titoxd brings up a good point. I don't quite see what you're getting at Skyemoor. Are you impling global warming controversy doesn't have facts? My point was that if even if there's little debate in scientific journals, it would be ignorant to assume there is no controversy over the topic of global warming. ~ UBeR 02:58, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

I've put in an advert for the poll top+bottom, otherwise its going to get lost in the noise. It could be better formatted - I couldn't make it center. Or centre? Should we be advertising this on the cl ch wikiproject? William M. Connolley 14:03, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

In general I believe that the more participants in a poll the better. Wide advertising and notices on talk pages of people who have historically been involved. So with that limited view, I say advertise away! But, then, I have really serious problems with this poll. The choices are extremely bad and I would consider any vote by any number of people to be off in this case because of the way the poll was designed and its intent to cut off discussion.--Blue Tie 14:51, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Shifting ground

Is anyone here familiar with the concept called "the fallacy of shifting ground"? Maybe I'm not calling it by its right name, since that was a red link.

I mean when you use the same term in more than one way, in a sneaky bid to win an argument. The classic proof that Stevie Wonder is God illustrates this fallacy.

The first three propostions are premises:

1. Stevie Wonder is blind.
2. Love is blind.
3. God is love.
4. Stevie Wonder is love (from #1 and #2)
5. Stevie Wonder is God (from #3 and#4)

When you say that X percent of scientists agree that "humans have had SOME effect on the climate" or that "humans have increased air temperatures SOMEWHAT", that is one idea.

When you conclude that the same percent of scientists accept the IPCC formulation of the anthropogenic global warming theory, i.e., that "most warming since year (blank) is due to humans", then you are leaping to conclusions.

Or if you conflate global warming (meaning a period when t's increase) & "global warming" (meaning the theory that most warming is due to humans), then you arguing that Stevie Wonder is God.

Please don't do that on this talk page or in the articles. --Uncle Ed 22:32, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

That is why it is so helpful to look at things from a verifiability viewpoint and not rely upon Original Research. Of course, we must trust our sources. If they do that error, then we are at their mercy to a degree. --Blue Tie 23:34, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Called the equivocation fallacy. Your specific example is called the ambiguous middle fallacy (a sub-fallacy of equivocation). Also similar to amphiboly fallacy. As with all fallacies, best to avoid them. ~ UBeR ~ 00:30, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Ok, so Stevie Wonder is not God; However, the consensus does believe in AGW, even most of the sceptics. How much is the only real discussion now. --Skyemoor 00:40, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Hey, Blue Tie, what OR?

Ed, cute, but not applicable.

Uber, yes, Ed would do well to avoid all such fallacies. •Jim62sch• 21:16, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I would not want to sneak one over on you through such a fallacy. The fallacy would be starting off with the soft claim (many scientists believe some 20th C. GW is A) which I believe you accept, and then later claim that what you accepted is really the hard claim (the great majority of scientists agree most 20th-C GW is A)

So instead, we should try to figure out how strong a claim you do accept. Clearly the IPCC report states that (the majority 20th-C GW is A). How large a fraction of scientists concur? You can object that Oreskes (100%) does not capture the actual dissenters (Baliunas, Lindzen...) Some anti-AGW editors have proposed that e.g. 25% are dissenters.

Even if the split is just 75 - 25 (though I read it as a lot higher ratio than that), that would justify language such as "strong majority" of scientists. If the U.S. Senate were all qualified climate scientists, the 75 pro-AGW would be able to override a veto. (All right, so I'm dreaming. Or would that be a nightmare? :-)

Okay, peace and good will to all.Birdbrainscan 05:04, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Straw Poll

DONE WITH THIS POLL. Now we know approximately where everyone stands, WRT consensus. It looks like there's still a small amount of work to be done, but the discussion seems resolvable.

This is not to discuss other options it is to resolve the edit war which led to the article being protected. It is a featured article and has been protected too long. I won't vote. Please vote below. 24 hours: usual WP rules on deciding votes (no canvassing, only established editors, I won't vote but I'll close. --BozMo talk 08:02, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Option 1

First option revert to which was the last version before the current run down.

1. Aye. --Skyemoor 00:28, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
2. William M. Connolley 08:28, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
3. Support. I'm willing to work in some more references directly if there is consensus to that effect, but it would make the whole more unwieldy without seriously improving the article.--Stephan Schulz 09:21, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Convenience means nothing to policy. It might be convenient to not follow policy, but that still isn't the best option. ~ UBeR 02:52, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

1. Support Mostlyharmless 10:02, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
2. Support Narssarssuaq 10:22, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
3. Support Kim D. Petersen 11:19, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
4. Support Ashenai 11:40, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
5. Support Guettarda 12:31, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
6. Support Gsalter 13:06, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
7. Support Count Iblis 13:33, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
8. Support Raymond Arritt 13:35, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
9. Support. As with Stephan I could accept working in more references as long as it doesn't become unwiedly. -- Leland McInnes 14:06, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
10. Support Raul654 16:24, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
11. Support Vsmith 17:45, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
12. Support But then I'm one of those fascisti Uber prattles on about. •Jim62sch• 21:12, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
13. Support TeaDrinker 21:16, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
14. Support I paged through a string of version diffs and most of the battle seemed to be rewording the definition of GW, cyclically. Sigh. I hope we can get beyond this type of fiddling.Birdbrainscan 04:18, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

This comment brings up another problem with the pole: They don't know what exactly they're voting for or for what reason. ~ UBeR 06:17, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Option 2

Second option: The "weasel by proxy" as describe above by Blue Tie. That is, verified and attributable to third party source.

CLARIFICATION OF OPTION 2: This is a clarification (I hope) that was discussed on my talk page: Option 1 is the option to go back to the original version and everything will still be willy-nilly, straight back to square one. It doesn't matter if there's a source that actually says "Most scientists agree that ... and few scientists disagree (...)" If there actually is a source, then use it! If there actually is a source, make sure you're stating what it is saying (that is, not verbatim--just don't change the context). If there actually is a source, attribute the claim to that source. HOWEVER, if there isn't a source, then that claim doesn't belong in Misplaced Pages. This option is the only supportable one under Misplaced Pages (of the two options so far). If feel so inclined to do so, feel free to change your vote. ~ UBeR 18:02, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Uber seems right. if there is a valid source, I see no reason to not use it. --Sm8900 18:43, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

UBeR is often right. I don't quite get the proposal here though. Personally I am a big reluctant to turn particularly the introduction into a patchwork of sources (the convention in papers is not to give references in abstracts: I think it helps a lot not to cite in the intro provided everything in it is substantiated with references later). It would be very hard to get it to read well that way.--BozMo talk 19:02, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

There is not much problem with having numerous refernces and citations. For an example, see this article. --Sm8900 19:09, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Or this one. You see, BozMo, one of the wonders of Misplaced Pages is that it is not a paper encyclopedia nor is it a scientific paper to be published in a journal. If this article is to be used as a "gold standard" as one observer proclaimed, then it should stand against the toughest scrutiny. While I agree, an overload of refs in the lead can be burdensome or ugly, policy trumps prettiness. I also agree that refs are not required in leads because they are summaries of what's in the article, UNLESS the article provides no reference to the original claim within any portion of the article. That is the current case. Again, my clarification still stands. However, at the current momenet it looks like the weasel words are gone, and doesn't need sources (that is, unless you know who undoes it). Also note the current intro has a grand total of TWO refs. That's hardly eye-soring. ~ UBeR 22:32, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

• Support ~ UBeR 21:33, 27 March 2007 (UTC)
• Support. --Sm8900 13:29, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
• Support. holding nose. --Blue Tie 13:47, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
• Support. The "Last Version" was unacceptable.--Zeeboid 21:02, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
• Support Blue Tie. I don't see the choices here as being meaningful, but of the editors of the article in the last week, Blue Tie's look the most sensible and in line with Misplaced Pages policy. --Facethefacts 22:26, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
• Support either this or using neutral language as in Blue Tie's version. Option 1 violates Misplaced Pages policy regardless of how many vote for it. --Tjsynkral 06:42, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Clarification of option 2

Someone added this:

CLARIFICATION OF OPTION 2: This is a clarification (I hope) that was discussed on my talk page: Option 1 is the option to go back to the original version and everything will still be willy-nilly, straight back to square one. It doesn't matter if there's a source that actually says "Most scientists agree that ... and few scientists disagree (...)" If there actually is a source, then use it! If there actually is a source, make sure you're stating what it is saying (that is, not verbatim--just don't change the context). If there actually is a source, attribute the claim to that source. HOWEVER, if there isn't a source, then that claim doesn't belong in Misplaced Pages. This option is the only supportable one under Misplaced Pages (of the two options so far). If feel so inclined to do so, feel free to change your vote.

Since they didn't sign it, I've no idea whose talk page we should be looking at. But you cannot possibly add a "clarification" that asserts that only one option is supportable, or that option 1 represents return to square 1.

William M. Connolley 08:28, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Objection: Badly designed straw poll violates wikipedia policy and philosophy

I object to the Straw Poll on the following grounds:

• Poor design. It is a binary vote between a poor choice and a bad choice. Almost no discussion went into the creation of the options. In particular, I dislike both choices. The vote is a choice between two ways of not improving the article.
• Purpose is to eliminate discussion. It even says this is not to discuss. Discussion on other choices has been cut off/excluded. No significant discussion was used to create the choices. The block is meant to help stimulate discussion and improve the article. The vote is an effort to stifle discussion and return the article to a previous state without discussion.
• Contrary to Policy. Misplaced Pages Policy says Polling is not a substitute for discussion and Misplaced Pages is not a democracy. Straw polls may not be treated as binding. I have some problems with these policies in a few respects, but I do not have a problem with straw polls per se. I do have a problem with them used to squelch discussion as this one is. I believe that Straw Polls should be used to help guide a discussion toward consensus though. Typically this means smaller steps rather than giant ones as this vote is.
• Multiple Issues but only one vote.
• Short Duration. Even if I could agree to a straw poll that was a final arbiter without discussion (which is hard to imagine), I would not agree that it should be limited to only 24 hours. It smacks of steamrolling. Some people do not check wikipedia every day. Their views and contributions should not be determined by their rate of input but by the quality of their thoughts.
• Wrong Topic. The blocking Admin blocked until there was consensus on whether the page has NPOV problems. To me it was a strange standard at first but upon reflection it actually makes sense; it encourages discussion. That is the standard he or she set, but our poll here does not address that issue at all.

Instead, of this badly designed poll that is contrary to policy, the wording of the opening paragraph should be worked out here. That is the wikipedia method. It is discussion.

Why don't you propose a first paragraph then? --BozMo talk 18:33, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Have done before and will do again. Working on it as I can. Maybe tonight. --Blue Tie 20:04, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I get a sense that somehow, this page and its key editors are seen as being "not subject" to wikipedia policies. Repeatedly policies are ignored or tramped on. This is one more instance of that. And in most cases, it seems, the intent of that effort is to completely eliminate discussion and input. That is not what wikipedia is about. Misplaced Pages is the Encyclopedia that Anyone can Edit. --Blue Tie 13:35, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I would like to see as many good-faith contributors and viewpoints included as possible. I agree with Blue Tie that there has been a pattern recently here at this entry of that not being done. --Sm8900 13:57, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

There has been considerable discussion, with a multiplicity of points raised, considered, and assessed. At some point in time, a consensus has to be explored, and such a straw poll is one way to accomplish that. When a poll does not reach the conclusions that one side wanted, it is typical to argue against the mechanism of a poll, even though at least one option was available that met the needs of both sides. Therefore let us accept the results of the poll (which can be kept open longer as far as I'm concerned) as a fair measure of the consensus. There can be more discussion in the future, no doubt, but we can move past the current deadlock and take the future discussion points as they arise. --

I greatly appreciate your reasoned and polite reply. In a heated debate, it is a rare thing to see. But I really do have a substantive issue with the poll. The first two reasons listed are serious and real to me. I cannot in good conscience vote for either option, and I really do believe that the better way to do this is a discussion. This poll is a short-cut way to circumvent that. It is efficient. But I do not think it is the right way to build consensus. I would not agree with its results no matter WHICH of the two options were picked -- they are both suboptimal. --Blue Tie 17:09, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Some rejoinders to your comments (if that makes any sense...)

• At last check this talk page was 348 KB, reflecting the fact that there's been lots of discussion. I have not the slightest doubt that we could discuss the issue forever and not come to a universally agreeable conclusion. Granted, there may not have been enough discussion for some. But we cannot maintain a high-profile article in a perpetually locked state, so at some point we have to make a decision between...
• ...suboptimal choices. Most real life choices are between sub-optimal alternatives. (U.S. presidential candidates, anyone?) In any case the version we choose will not be set in stone -- it will merely be a starting point for future development. Raymond Arritt 17:37, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Agreed, and as the locked version looks absolutely terrible with its misleading opening sentence, the unlock and revert should be done as soon as possible, as voted. As soon as that pressing issue is taken care of, we can move on to two unrelated issues: 1) the content forking of the scientific attribution may be solved, and 2) a citation should be searched to increase the precision of the weasel word some in the following context: "Some scientists believe that the effect of solar forcing is being underestimated". Narssarssuaq 07:48, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

I did not vote in this poll for most of the reasons above. This poll is a red herring and should have been ignored. --Childhood's End 17:03, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

As long as this is an exploration, and not a binding poll, it might be useful. People can then figure out who to negotiate with and about what to negotiate, to finally come to a negotiated consensus. That much seems useful. --Kim Bruning 17:06, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I absolutely agree with Blue Tie in that this is a sloppy poll with perhaps not a great enough range of options. Options one obviously goes back to the same mess we started with, doing absolutely nothing to help, as the problem is still there. Option two is acceptable under Misplaced Pages policy, but may not be the best option. Misplaced Pages makes clear their policy on straw poles and democracies: they should not substitute discussion and they are non-binding. Using this to stifle debate would be a terribly unfortunate mistake.

However, I generally agree Kim Bruning. This poll could be used to figure out who holds which positions and we can discuss possibilities between the two (or more) groups. Obviously, with a limit of only being placed in two options for the time being, this isn't perfect, but if everyone can recognize the issues each person has it will lead to better negotiation and real consensus. ~ UBeR 02:46, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Option 1 does very much to help, as it removes a version of the page that makes an unsupported claim (see Scientific opinion on climate change) in the first paragraph of one of the most viewed articles on Misplaced Pages. That should be fixed instantly, other issues can wait. Narssarssuaq 07:57, 29 March 2007 (UTC) To put that clearer, the article as of now says "some scientists", which could be anyone, while according to for example "Lord Rees of Ludlow, the president of the Royal Society, Britain's most prestigious scientific institute, said: "The IPCC is the world's leading authority on climate change(...)"". As stated already, this imprecision in the present introduction should be fixed instantly. Protecting the page for days in the state it's in now is a very, very poor choice. Narssarssuaq 08:06, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Yeah, if one thing is a constant, it is that the page is always protected on m:The Wrong Version. :-/ --Kim Bruning 08:19, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Talk page should be split

The talk page is too large. We do archive old talk, but that doesn't help much because there are too many topics that are still being discussed. Count Iblis 13:43, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I agree. I would work on it but I have no time right now. --Blue Tie 13:52, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Agree. Some topics should be archived at some point. --Sm8900 13:59, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

How about a separate page for all the NPOV/weasel talk? That would handle most of it William M. Connolley 14:14, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

I do not know either way. Normally I would think that chronology is best. But that area is somewhat huge and takes much space so your proposal would help in that regard. On the other hand, separating it has the effect of closeting it off. So I do not know. --Blue Tie 14:31, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

It's possible to make a subpage to discuss specifics, but I have already prematurely archived the discussion of March 2007 of any discussion not taking place within the last 10 days or discuss that is uncontroversially dead. ~ UBeR 02:51, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Prematurely?--Blue Tie 03:04, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Sorry, just a bad choice of words. Premature in the sense that the talk page is usually archived once a month. The month hasn't ended yet, so I used the word prematurely. It doesn't really mean anything other than I archived old discussion sooner than I would have originally, given the large amounts of new discussion recently. ~ 03:26, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Unprotected

I have unprotected the page and reverted it to the last version as suggested above in the straw poll.

Clearly, no one thinks this version is perfect and the page is now open for improvements. However I would consider restarting an edit war over the inclusion of an NPOV tag in these circumstances as edit warring. Please don't. Thank you --BozMo talk 08:47, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

It is not clear to me that no one thinks this version is perfect. But ..suppose that someone believes there are NPOV problems. Which of these two policies do you mean to implement here:

• No one may identify this article as having problems with NPOV, even if they exist.
• NPOV problems must be agreed to first on this talk page by the people who wrote or guard the article and believe it is flawless in this regard.

--Blue Tie 12:58, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

There is nothing wrong with talking about NPOV. But to avoid swamping the talk page, how about creating a sub page /NPOV for discussion of this one issue? To answer your q1: the poll establishes a large majority of editors against tagging the page, so please don't William M. Connolley 13:11, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

No, the poll did NOT establish that. That was not the question. The question was: Which version should be established upon unprotect. This was not a poll about whether other wikipedia standards and processes should be violated. Tags exist as a part of wikipedia for a good reason. --Blue Tie 14:10, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

I think you just almost sank yourself. Unprotecting is always fine, no matter what the outcome of the poll. But reverting was not ok. Let me undo that last part and say that that's what you actually did. ;-) In future: you need to be familiar with the polling guidelines. Based on the poll, we still need to discuss further. I hope folks can agree to stay away from the contested area for a while. :-) (though trying on solutions for size and seeing how they look should be fine. Don't revert tries, try to improve on them instead. :-) ) --Kim Bruning 08:59, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

The sense of the poll was clearly to return to the earlier version. I don't understand why you reverted to the "other" version William M. Connolley 09:18, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Because I wanted to return to status quo (and make it like BozMo hand't made his change) to start with. I'm a bit worried that there would otherwise be another edit war. Well, I can't sell that anymore, I guess. :-/ --Kim Bruning 09:29, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

And the vote was more than 75% for this. In WP (e.g. electing administrators) that kind of level is considered adequate consensus. --BozMo talk 09:20, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

That is not consensus, and that is not how you conduct a poll in the main namespace. I'll take this to E-mail. --Kim Bruning 09:29, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

I've restored the std semi-prot we had before, which is needed. Also the move prot William M. Connolley 12:38, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Alright, and took it to E-mail, and am satisfied that BozMo is acting in good faith. I'm sure we both could have done things better, but things are survivable the way they are now. Still lots of work to do though! --Kim Bruning 14:03, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Scientific opinion on climate change

Right, once that's settled, we can get on with the problem regarding the scientific opinion on climate change. This is not mentioned in the article, only linked to. This is as I see it 1) because the article is already too long; 2) possibly to avoid the issue, the article Misplaced Pages:Content forking is mainly irrelevant here, but not entirely; and 3) because the issue is irrelevant in a scientific context (though it's not irrelevant in a public and political context). I think everyone would agree that a little information on the scientific opinion should be included here, if only the piece of information I cited above: that the IPCC consists of the "world's leading climate scientists" (see for example ). That single piece of information is in my opinion precise enough for this article's purposes. Narssarssuaq 10:02, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Thats not really correct. Para 2 of the intro is it, in substance William M. Connolley 10:45, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Thanks, I didn't see that. Does Misplaced Pages approve of mentioning something in the abstract/introduction but not in the article? It's taboo in science of course, but I guess encyclopedias are a different cup of tea. Narssarssuaq 10:58, 29 March 2007 (UTC) To be more constructive, I suggest that the introduction solely mentions that the IPCC consists of the "world's leading climate scientists", while the more elaborated explanation with wikilinks that's presently in para 2 is moved to "Causes". Narssarssuaq 11:00, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

But that material does need to be in the intro. Conversely, I don't see why the intro needs to go into who IPCC is William M. Connolley 11:07, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

OK. Looking at the article again, the controversy is of course mentioned both in the introduction and in the "Terminology" section. It seems a bit strange to mention more in the introduction than in the rest of the article, though. Also, the brevity of the introduction treatment could at present be giving undue weight to the "few scientists". Narssarssuaq 11:21, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

I think it would be instructive to show how much money is given away by the US Federal Government every year to scientists who are studying how humans contribute to Global Warming. My guess is the number is in the billions. This tremendous amount of funding should be relevant to the discussion. It seems that most, if not all, of the funding goes to organizations who are out to prove man is causing Global Warming.

About the last straw poll...

Perhaps those who voted in good faith in the straw poll above would be interested to read this discussion between William Connolley and BozMo, who orchastrated that said poll... --Childhood's End 13:10, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

In which I suggested protecting the page myself during the edit war? Perhaps this one User_talk:William_M._Connolley#I_owe_you_an_apology is even more shocking :). --BozMo talk 13:22, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

I don't see anything problematic with the WMC/BozMo discussion. I wonder why people would want to raise suspicions in a manner that appears to be 'poisoning the well'. At some point, we have to stop feeding the trolls. --Skyemoor 14:24, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Yeah, yeah... WMC keeps saying that about people in disagreement with his climate views. That's getting old. You should elevate yourself above that kind of immature personal attacks/derogatory comments. --Childhood's End 14:27, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Ok ok! Enough of that! Let's all assume good faith here, please. --Kim Bruning 14:43, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Except when you have plenty of evidence to assume the contrary. ~ UBeR 18:28, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

AFAIK it is unlocked? I thought it was only protected against anon IPs? --BozMo talk 15:21, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

It was unlocked when I edited a couple of hours ago? :-) --Kim Bruning 15:26, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Take it easy for a day or two, just to be sure, eh? --Kim Bruning 15:38, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

that sounds good. thanks. --Sm8900 15:41, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Your right to edit this page

Just to be clear, the above straw poll does not change the fact that this article may still be freely edited by registed users. If you feel that a user has inserted weasel words into the article or otherwise compromised its NPOV, you are free to edit the article as you see fit to improve it to Misplaced Pages Standards. I intend to do so until my WP:3RR are up. --Tjsynkral 22:10, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Well, just keep in mind that straw polls are non-binding (it's a shame this one was used to stifle debate) and the article is still subject to all Misplaced Pages policies. ~ UBeR 22:33, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Keep in mind that WP:3RR limits distruptive editing, whether or not 3 reverts have been reached. I think if the edits are something which has been extensively discussed here, and most people are against, you would be better advised to find compelling reasons for your edit and convince other editors on this talk page before making the change. Making the same changes every day, full in the knowledge it will be removed, will get tiresome very quickly and may be taken as distruptive (in my view at least). --TeaDrinker 22:42, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Yes, this is considered to be pre-meditated disruption. Note that 3RR is not a privilege. Interesting that you are taking this stance during mediation. --Skyemoor 02:20, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

It's a matter of fixing the page, within the rules, from POV pushers who insert weasel words beyond the rules. I'd almost be willing to claim reverting vandalism on it but I don't think it meets the WP standards of vandalism. --Tjsynkral 06:31, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Misplaced Pages:Mediation Cabal/Cases/2007-03-25 Global warming

When will the trial start? Count Iblis 21:03, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

There is no trial. Medcab mediation is unofficial and non-binding. A skilled mediator may help people communicate. Guettarda 21:13, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

I see, so I don't need to consult with my lawyer :) Count Iblis 21:53, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

TINC O:-) --Kim Bruning 22:12, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Sentence on solar variation causing cooling...

The current statement in the reads as follows: "Other phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes have probably had a warming effect from pre-industrial to 1950, but a cooling effect since 1950." I originally inserted the former part of the sentence (prior to the comma) with the SPM cited, as this is what the source states. I also noted that volcanism "likely" (66%) had a cooling effect since 1950, per SPM and other IPCC reports. William added solar variation also had "a cooling effect" and blanketed it under the same source. Looking at the SPM, nowhere does it state solar variation (either with or without volcanoes) has had a cooling effect since 1950. Fig-4 does not imply it either. In fact, solar variation has positive radiative forcing. ~ UBeR 22:42, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

The reference is to fig 4 (haven't we been round this loop already?) which shows (bottom row) cooling since 1950 from runs with sol+vol forcing William M. Connolley 22:50, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

As I understand William and Fig. 4 in the SPM, solar and volcanos combined probably result in a net cooling effect. The claim is not "volcanos have a cooling effect and solar variations have a cooling effect". --Stephan Schulz 22:54, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Correct, Stephan. That was a bad point made on my part. However, less warming than if combined with GHGs is not equivalent to cooling. ~ UBeR 23:03, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Interpreting the graph is original research. --Blue Tie 21:31, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

William removing references

Regarding this edit, William is removing valid references supporting claims made by the article. The references are important per Misplaced Pages's policies on sources, including WP:V, WP:OR, WP:ATT. Many a administrator have informed William in the past that Misplaced Pages articles are not reliable sources. William is trying to use a Misplaced Pages article as a reliable source for a statement that was previously properly referenced. As someone else mentioned, convenience or prettiness does not trump policy. Discussion? ~ UBeR 23:09, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

I've got no problem with the references staying in. But who is "someone else"? The only one I'v seen making this statement so far is you. --Stephan Schulz 23:14, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

This isn't a matter of removing sources, it's a matter of removing long lists. Long lists don't belong in an article. And while Misplaced Pages articles cannot be taken as "reliable sources", if sources are provided on the other end of a link, they can be considered as sources for statements on the original page - ie, saying its all in the sub-article is perfectly acceptable. Guettarda 23:59, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

I'm afraid that's not the case, Guettarda. ~ UBeR 00:06, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Really? And the basis for your opinion is what...? Guettarda 00:34, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

In other words, that's a ridiculous assertion Uber. Guettarda 00:36, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Why, Misplaced Pages policy of course: "Misplaced Pages and other wikis sponsored by the Wikimedia Foundation are not regarded as reliable sources." Check. ~ UBeR 00:54, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

The references in a well sourced subpage can be used via a link to the subpage as reliable sources to the main article. Wiki articles evolve and grow - references needn't be duplicated - just point to their location. Vsmith 01:05, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

I'm afraid that's not the case. ~ UBeR 03:10, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

When a supporting article is branched off to avoid a too long main article, its references go with it. The summary in the parent article is supported by the references in the branch article and a duplicate reference listing should be unneeded. Now over the past few days a batch of skeptics have siezed upon this as an opportunity to enhance their position by claiming many and few in the article were unsupported weasel words (the supporting data and refs were in the daughter articles) and insisting on their removal. The removal of the two words many and few had the net effect of making the skeptic position seem more equal in importance or support - and thus amounted to POV pushing by wikilawyering on the part of those skeptical editors.

Following the unlocking of the page the skeptic weasel fighters returned to enhance their position by again removing those horrible weasels. To waylay this imbalance, I simply made a list of references from the daughter article and added the list as a single reference to indicate that many was indeed a valid term. The list only appeared in the ref list (and on the edit screen) and appeared as a single ref number on the viewable page. I personally didn't feel the list as needed, but used it to show the absurdity of the skeptic weasel campaign on this particular point. It can stay or go as far as I'm concerned, but if it goes, the many belongs and is supported by the subarticle refs. Vsmith 00:56, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

It's a nice story, but once again you have grossly misunderstood and distorted the situation. While, of course, summaries are allowed in sections of articles that are becoming overly long, there are certain procedures in which is this accomplished. But two brackets around a phrase is not the manner in which this is accomplished, nor does it apply to leads. For more detailed information, see WP:SS. ~ UBeR 03:10, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

From the grossly misunderstood page (WP:SS):

There is no need to repeat all specific references for the subtopics in the main "Summary style" article: the "Summary style" article summarizes the content of each of the subtopics, without need to give detailed references for each of them in the main article: these detailed references can be found in the subarticles. The "Summary style" article only contains the main references that apply to that article as a whole.

two brackets around a phrase takes the user to the sub-article containing the detailed references, that is quite simple - and those two brackets around a phrase do not constitute a reference, rather a link to further info which contains the detailed refs.

As for distorted, hmm... don't rightly know what I'm s'posed to have distorted. I presented the nice story based on my perceptions - I can't see thru your undistorted glasses :-) Cheers, Vsmith 14:14, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Right, Vsmith, you're arguing for a point I already made. "Summaries are allowed in sections of articles that are becoming overly long, there are certain procedures in which is this accomplished." Note some important things I said though. First is "section." Sections can be summarized via WP:SS. ("Longer sections should be spun off into their own articles and a several paragraph summary should be left in its place.") Right, so this isn't so much a problem of summarizing excessive details in the lead. No one is asking to expand the lead so as to include everything in the subarticles. That's nonsense. This is about using a source to cite weasel words. (Although, note the current version is without problem.) The second important thing I said was "there are certain procedure in which this is accomplished." Sections use small text templates to show the reader the section is being summarized. ("Whenever you break up a page, please note the split (including the page names between double square brackets) in the edit summary. Add {{Main}} to the top of the section that is being split out, to indicate where the main article for that section is.") So when you put these two concepts together, you have: "Longer sections should be spun off into their own articles and a several paragraph summary should be left in its place. Such sections are linked to the detailed article with a {{main|<name of detailed article>}} or comparable template under the section title." So why doesn't the policy mention leads? Well it does, sort of. ("Each article on each subtopic, as well as the main article have lead sections that are concise encyclopedic articles in their own right.") Leads are summaries of the articles that they introduce. But you're a bit misleading, cherry picking quotes from the policy. You forgot to mention "the 'Summary style' article only contains the main references that apply to that article as a whole." What this suggests is that in the summary (of the section) you add a reference here and there that are applicable to the whole idea the summary is trying to convey. Do you see how this is different from "no references at all"?

P.S. SMcCandlish would like convey "anyone who removed sourced from an SS article should be WP:TROUTed.  :-)" My regards, ~ UBeR 21:21, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Uber, you obviously don't understand policy. If you don't understand what you are talking about, you should refrain from lecturing people about things you don't understand. If you don't understand something, and you are unwilling to take the word of more established editors, then the onus is on you to educate yourself about the topic. Everything you need to know is there if you are willing to make the effort. Please educate yourself about the topic. Guettarda 04:08, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Please assume good faith, Guettarda. That's at least one policy you can understand. "Misplaced Pages and other wikis sponsored by the Wikimedia Foundation are not regarded as reliable sources. However, wikis are excellent places to locate primary and secondary sources." What isn't there to understand? You make a good point, there may perhaps be sources on that page, which is exactly what the policy concurs. Where you and policy differ is in that you think Misplaced Pages is a reliable source, where it obviously is not. Additionally, "All articles on Misplaced Pages should be based on information collected from published primary and secondary sources." Misplaced Pages calls this fundamental to encyclopedia writing. And if you were wondering, no, Misplaced Pages is neither a secondary or primary source. Check, mate. ~ UBeR 05:01, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

As I said, please familiarise yourself with policy - specifically, with what policy is. Quoting a line out of context which stems from a guideline, and concluding "checkmate" proves that you don't understand what policy and guidelines are. So please, educate yourself about the topic first. Guettarda 13:48, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Oh a simple comma omission. You know. Anyway, I provide links for you to check for yourself. You can check for yourself whether I am out of context or not. It's clear I'm not and the policy itself is clear. It's a neat defense to try to undermine the actual policy by saying I'm out of the context, but it's just a lame non sequitur in reality. You can read the quotes for yourself. ~ UBeR 21:21, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

It's your conclusion of "checkmate" that shows you don't understand the guideline you are quoting. Rules are descriptive, and can only be interpreted with a large dose of commonsense. Quite simply, the issue that Misplaced Pages articles are not reliable sources simply doesn't apply to this situation; in this case, the article isn't being used as a source, the references within it are being used as a source...as is common (and widely accepted) practice. The guideline of sourcing is meant to inform people what constitutes a reliable source. You can't attribute some piece of information to a Misplaced Pages article, because Misplaced Pages articles aren't necessarily reliable or accurate. There's nothing that says that something isn't adequately sourced simply because the source is on another page. The fundamental rule to follow is common sense. And when you find a rule (especially a guideline) which conflicts with common sense, policy says "ignore it". And that, unlike WP:RS, is official Misplaced Pages policy. Guettarda 02:25, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Phew—good thing I never quoted WP:RS! ~ UBeR 03:34, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Actually yes, you did. The text you quoted is from Misplaced Pages:Attribution/FAQ, and is based on the WP:RS guideline. So yes, your argument is based on the RS guideline. As I said, if you refuse to take the word of people who know these things, then you need to make the effort to educate yourself about these things. Guettarda 04:01, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

OK, Mr. Holier-than-thou. I actually didn't, but I'll let your post hoc stand. With that though, comes WP:OR which stands as a strong pillar against your perceived notions that Misplaced Pages supports circular reasoning. It states it pretty clear, and lest I be accused of taking it out of context, I'll let you read over it yourself. ~ UBeR 04:14, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

What does WP:NOR have to do with the interpretation of policy? WP:NOR applies to articles, not talk page, user pages or the Misplaced Pages namespace. Guettarda 04:20, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Exactly. ~ UBeR 05:38, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Stop edit warring NOW. Thank you. Kyaa the Catlord 04:28, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Pot, stop calling the kettle black. Don't jump into an edit war, re-insert POV nonsense, and lecture people. Funny, dude. Guettarda 04:43, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Inserting your own POV into the article is just as bad as the opposite. Now cool it. Kyaa the Catlord 05:43, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Once you start edit-warring, you really can't lecture people about edit warring. In addition, you replaced an accurate summary with a misleading one. Guettarda 13:48, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Take personal fights to the user pages or better yet, stop altogether. It clogs up this page with trash. --Blue Tie 21:27, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Consensus reference - not a reliable source

I would like to see a discussion on the latest change by User:KimDabelsteinPetersen - where she has re-introduced the word "Consensus" and uses as her cite this page . It looks to me like political, slanted garbage, not peer-reviewed literature - and if a skeptic tried to use this kind of thing as a source, User:William_M._Connolley would have a cow! I don't think this meets the WP:RS standards but I would like to hear some other opinions. I'm also curious to find out if User:William_M._Connolley holds documents on HIS side of the argument to the same high standard as documents on the skeptic side. --Tjsynkral 17:45, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Much though I love the thought of WMC having a cow the Royal Society to a Brit is the ultimate representive of pure academic science. I don't know if a US equivalent exists. On requiring high standards on documents all round I am sympathetic and when I've got some time I will have a look. --BozMo talk 18:01, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Also, if we could cite as a Primary source the statement from the NAS endorsing the IPCC "consensus" that this source references - although I still have my issues with that, being that that statement reflects the opinion of one group yet we're claiming something about all scientists - that might at least meet WP policy. --Tjsynkral 17:52, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

You migh want to look at this, particularly footnote two. It's signed on behalf of the US NAS (and others). --Stephan Schulz 18:07, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Tjsynkral, the Royal Society is the british equivalent to the National Academy of Sciences - and Connolley would certainly not have a cow over an equivalent sceptic source. (hint: that would be the NAS or the NRC). This is about as good (imho) and as reliable as sources come. This btw is a source/document that unlike the G8+3 and the 2001 academies statement - makes the direct link and statement about consensus. So it upholds the guidelines in WP:SYN - which has so far been the problem. --Kim D. Petersen 18:22, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Hmmm - seems that Stephan Schulz found a footnote to relate the G8+3 statement directly to consensus. So that doesn't go against WP:SYN either. --Kim D. Petersen 18:25, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Must be an outstanding hoopy frood, this Stephan Schulz. He not only finds sneaky footnotes, but also the first proper sentence of the 2001 joint science academies statement: The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. ;-) --Stephan Schulz 18:46, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Yep - really sneaky ;) - so in effect we have lots of good and reliable sources to use consensus as a specific wording - and without running our noses against WP:SYN - now isn't UBeR going to be pleased. --Kim D. Petersen 18:51, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Very. I am pleased the Royal Society agrees the international community is in consensus with the IPCC. Whether the Royal Societies believes 16 countries constitute the consensus of a 192 country community is neither here nor there. ~ UBeR 20:25, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Happy and graceful!--Stephan Schulz 20:44, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

As I have pointed out before, when someone else presents their OPINION of something (and in this case an opinion of an opinion -- which makes it rather unencyclopedic, but never mind), the entity making the claim should be explicitly stated, if that is notable. Otherwise it is wikipedia making the claim, and wikipedia must remain neutral. So the article might say, "The Royal Society has described the IPCC as the consensus of the International Scientific Community". Then an alternative view, following, would probably be appropriate per NPOV.

But you know what is even better and what would help prevent edit wars? DO NOT STATE ANY OPINIONS AT ALL. Just state the facts, without adjectives and without opinion warring by proxy and then let the reader decide. That is really the heart of NPOV. --Blue Tie 20:55, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

First Sentence

The first sentence reads as follows:

Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

I disagree with this sentence and I believe it should be changed to reflect the following:

1. Global Warming is not a new phenomenon. It has existed at least as long as we have had an atmosphere.

2. Global Warming is directly related to greenhouse gases.

3. Global Warming does not need to be observed to exist. It may exist without observation.

4. "Global Warming" is a recent term, coined in the late 1970's.

5. Global Warming is of current interest due to observations of increased average temperatures over the last few decades and projections of continued increases in temperature.

So, I would suggest the following sentences instead:

Global warming is a phrase coined in the late 1970's to describe an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near surface atmosphere due to the greenhouse gas effect. Although there have been periods of both global warming and cooling in the past, it is currently a topic of hightened international attention due to observations of increased average temperatures over the last five decades and projections of continued increases in the next century.

--Blue Tie 20:51, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Ad 1: We've had this discussion before. "Global warming" is overwhelmingly used to refer to the current episode of warming.

Yes. In the previous discussion I said that the notion of "overhelming" or other such words is Original Research. I never saw a reply to that. Also I think that a version that is less tied up in what is "popular" now and more correct from a logical perspective will also be less POV. (Blue Tie)

Ad 2: Where do you mention that in your version?

Forgot but fixed it now. (Blue Tie)

Ad 3: See Ad 1:

My response: (Blue Tie)

Ad 4:

Dictionary. I can cite it, but did not because it is not on the actual page. Do you really need it right now or can you go on some trust here? (Blue Tie)

Ad 5: It's not just the last 5 decades. Also, .

That's fine. I don't care if it's 20 decades. Just so long as it is some verifiable number. And if it is not a verifiable number then the phase should be taken out.(Blue Tie)

The current version is much less wordy and a much better introduction.

Less words is not always best and I clearly do not agree with your conclusion. (Blue Tie)

WP:NOT a dictionary.

But it can use dictionaries (Blue Tie)

--Stephan Schulz 21:03, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

It's confusing when you insert your own comments in-between comments that aren't yours. That said, "global warming" is typically used to described the current, observed warming of near-surface air and ocean temperatures. I think the opening sentence conveys this rather nicely. ~ UBeR 21:29, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

My apologies for the confusion. I shall try harder to do something else in the future. As I have said before, I do not think observation is required but I do believe the description of it as relating only to the current observation is wrong. The earth warms. It cools. For quite a while it has done this. --Blue Tie 22:11, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

At point 3 it should be mentioned that this also depends on the way quantum mechanics should be interpreted see e.g. here  :) Count Iblis 21:40, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Heh heh. Well, I suppose, if global warming were a quantum level phenomenon, it probably would not be in the headlines quite as much either. To what degree has the quantum flux cooled down or heated up in the last 50 years anyway? Heh heh. I think any significant change would be essentially terrifying. --Blue Tie 22:15, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

WP:NOT a dictionary.

But it can use dictionaries (Blue Tie)

Sure. Misplaced Pages is not about describing the term "global warming", it is about the phenomenon. Your introduction gives focus to the term, not to the phenomenon.--Stephan Schulz 21:47, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Well, an encyclopedia is not a dictionary because it is MORE than a dictionary in some ways. But it can contain much of the same information... no harm in that. However, if you want the focus taken off of the term I will re-edit.--Blue Tie 22:17, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

• • • Newly Coined Intro #2

Global warming refers to an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near surface atmosphere due to the greenhouse gas effect. Although there have been periods of both global warming and cooling in the past, it is currently a topic of hightened international attention due to observations of increased average temperatures over the last five decades and projections of continued increases in the next century. The phrase "global warming" came into use during the late 1970's. (Note this was placed here AFTER the next two comments were placed on the page). --Blue Tie 22:39, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Your newly-coined intro is still not correct, as it restricts the cause to the greenhouse effect. By the way, please give modified proposals by stating them anew rather than simply editing the earlier version. The latter approach leads to confusion, because the comments that follow no longer apply to the proposed text. Raymond Arritt 22:30, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Ok, I will propose anew. However, I think the restriction to the greenhouse effect can be sourced, but I am always open to a broader view. Can you find a reliable verifiable source that gives a broader definition of the term? I'm fine with it if we can find one. --Blue Tie 22:34, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Earlier you made a point on how the Earth has cooled and warmed in past. While true, this doesn't fit under the definition of global warming. As I said, the term today generally applies to the recent, observed increase in warming. Of course the Earth has warmed before, but no one calls that global warming. Also note the previous cooling and warming cycles were mostly because of orbital forcings, not GHGs (though they, of course, played a role)> ~ UBeR 22:57, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Are you sure that no one calls prior periods of warming "global warming"? Suppose I found someone who did? Or more than one? Do you have some source that describes the cooling and warming as primarily from orbital forcings? Not arguing that is not true, but the real problem here is that I am trying to not have wikipedia invent a new sense or defnition for the term and most of the definitions I have seen attach greenhouse gases and do not mention recency. Am I making sense there? No original research. We report what others say or find. --Blue Tie 23:26, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

You're the one who is trying to report global warming refers to past ice ages, and glacials and interglacials. I have never seen this term used in this sense. Have you? ~ UBeR 23:35, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Actually I am trying to not restrict it to the current period. That is different that trying to report that it refers to past ice ages. However, here is one quote:

During the glacial, not only was the temperature lower by 8 Celsius (and some estimates put it at more than 12 Celsius – the record is a superposition of ice volume and temperature), but the climate was extremely irregular. The irregularities in temperature during the glacials, the wild bumps and wiggles that cover much of Figure 1-4, are real, not an artifact of poor measurement. The same bumps and wiggles are seen in two separate cores in Greenland, and in data taken from sea floor records found off the California coast. The ability to adapt quickly during this wild climate ride may have given a substantial advantage to adaptable animals, such as humans, and made it difficult for other large fauna to survive. Maybe it was these rapid changes, and not the rapaciousness of humans, that drove the mammoths, camels, giant ground sloths and giant beavers (the size of bears) of North America extinct. Recent global warming appears negligible on this plot. However, if predictions of climate modelers are correct, global warming temperature changes will be comparable those during the ice age.

I think I could find more. That one took about 1 minute to find.

More to the point, the term Global Warming is already defined. We should not be making up a new definition. Remember.. we do not make the facts (even if we think that they go in a certain direction) we report them. --Blue Tie 23:48, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

User:UBeR is absolutely correct. It is you who are proposing a "new definition", so it is your responsibility to support it. So far you have not done so. Notice the material you quote doesn't apply the term "global warming" to past temperature changes. It merely says "global warming temperature changes will be comparable to those during the ice age", not "the current global warming temperature changes will be comparable to past global warming" or similar. If anything, the modifier "global warming" is construed to apply to the present, in contrast to changes "during the ice age." Raymond Arritt 23:59, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

To slow again...what he said! --Stephan Schulz 00:08, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

AEB1

Ok, I am not home so I do not have my own reference materials but I will find established definitions and statements and then let's see what they say:

an increase in the earth's average atmospheric temperature that causes corresponding changes in climate and that may result from the greenhouse effect. - Global Warming. (n.d.). Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1). Retrieved March 31, 2007, from Dictionary.com website: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Global%20Warming.

The above definition does not describe it as recent but does describe as associated with Greenhouse effect.

An increase in the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere, especially a sustained increase sufficient to cause climatic change. - Global Warming. (n.d.). The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition. Retrieved March 31, 2007, from Dictionary.com website: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Global%20Warming

Again this definition does not describe it as recent. It leaves out Greenhouse effect but mentions climate change being important.

An increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere, especially a sustained increase great enough to cause changes in the global climate. The Earth has experienced numerous episodes of global warming through its history, and currently appears to be undergoing such warming. The present warming is generally attributed to an increase in the greenhouse effect , brought about by increased levels of greenhouse gases, largely due to the effects of human industry and agriculture. Expected long-term effects of current global warming are rising sea levels, flooding, melting of polar ice caps and glaciers, fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, more frequent and stronger El Niños and La Niñas, drought, heat waves, and forest fires. -Global Warming. (n.d.). The American Heritage® Science Dictionary. Retrieved March 31, 2007, from Dictionary.com website: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Global%20Warming

Note that this is a Science Dictionary and provides the longest description. It describes the greenhouse gas issue as being recent but discusses global warming in the context of the longer earth history.

Definition of Global Warming: Gradual increase in the earth's surface temperature. --Per Zfacts at http://zfacts.com/p/49.html.

Not sure of the reliability of the source but its another brick in the wall It seems like the source is ok.

Increase in the global average surface temperature resulting from enhancement of the greenhouse effect, primarily by air pollution. - Britannica as quoted here.

Note that it definitely says "greenhouse gas" but also pretty much describes these as being from "air polution" which is probably recent.

Global Warming, increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere, oceans, and landmasses of Earth. The planet has warmed (and cooled) many times during the 4.65 billion years of its history. At present Earth appears to be facing a rapid warming, which most scientists believe results, at least in part, from human activities. - Encarta Online Encyclopedia as found here: http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761567022/Global_Warming.html but you might not have access to it without a subscription.

This source discusses the warming and cooling exactly as I did.

An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Scientists generally agree that the Earth's surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the Earth's surface temperature and that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas. -- Webster's Online Dictionary found here: http://www.websters-online-dictionary.org/gl/global+warming.html

This is a very comprehensive review of the meaning of the word from a web basis.

I am hoping that this set of definitions will serve as the basis for discussion. Certainly I can validate that my edits are not silly. They might not have been comprehensive, but the current version is also not correct. Note, for example, that none of these involve "observation". Note that many of them have absolutely no reference to time period and thus could be considered as having no significant time dimension. Those that do mention time, tend to mention both recent and historical. --Blue Tie 00:55, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Interesting. But what of scientific papers? For non scientific journal related:

The EPA writes, "Global warming is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. Global warming can occur from a variety of causes, both natural and human induced. In common usage, "global warming" often refers to the warming that can occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities."

this site uses almost the same language used on this article.

NOAA writes, "The term Global Warming refers, without any implications for the cause or magnitude, to the observation that the atmosphere near the Earth's surface is warming. This warming is one of many kinds of climate change that the Earth has gone through in the past and will continue to go through in the future." ~ UBeR 07:19, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Hi UBer. Thanks for the EPA reference. The reference on the "timeforchange.org" is invalid. It says: "The question about the definition for global warming or in other words "what is global warming" is relatively easy to answer. We hereby lean at the definitions and explanations given in Misplaced Pages". So that site is a mirror of an older wikipedia page. I went to the NOAA site and did a search. I found this page but I cannot find the statement you quote there. Can you link it? It seems like it is the one source that so far identifies "observation".--Blue Tie 13:59, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

From here. ~ UBeR 17:13, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

I just did a quick analysis and the shortest sentence that contains ALL of the most common words found in the definitions above is:

Global Warming: An increase in earth's average surface temperature.

That sentence represents the core to all of the definitions.

A slightly longer version using a few more words that appear less frequently is:

Global Warming: An increase in the average temperature of the near-surface temperature of the earth's atmosphere due to greenhouse gases, that effect climate change. --Blue Tie 06:14, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

---

• • • Newly Coined Intro #3

Global warming refers to an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near surface atmosphere that is large enough to change the global climate. Although there have been periods of both global warming and cooling in the past, it is currently a topic of hightened international attention due to observations of increased average temperatures over the last ten decades and projections of continued increases in the next century. This recent increase is believed to be caused by the greenhouse gas effect. The phrase "global warming" came into use during the late 1970's.

Not good. It oversimplifies to the degree that it is wrong. I'm happy with the current version, and that seems to have reasonably strong support.--Stephan Schulz 22:42, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

That is a strange objection. I am proposing changing a shorter, more simplified sentence with something that has more detail and you declare it to be an oversimplification. I do not undertstand that logic at all.

To be clear, I am proposing that this sentence:

Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

should be replaced by the new intro.

Please, also note that the current first sentence has elements that do not match any of the sources cited above and thus it is either incorrect or it is correct but only on the basis of original research.

I want to improve the article. I think that this is an improvement. --Blue Tie 10:03, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Global warming refers to an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near surface atmosphere that is large enough to change the global climate - this is wrong/meaningless. T is part of the climate; *any* change to global T is large enough to change the climate... what is this sentence supposed to mean? William M. Connolley 10:16, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Maybe you are right, but that would be original research. Note some of the sources quoted above:

An increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere, especially a sustained increase great enough to cause changes in the global climate. - American Heritage Science Dictionary.

an increase in the earth's average atmospheric temperature that causes corresponding changes in climate -- Dictionary.com

"Global warming is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. -- EPA

So, though you may consider it redundant (and I would agree with you) others do not see it that way. But it's not about personal opinion on such things. Misplaced Pages reports other sources. If something can be reasonably supported through a verifiable and reliable source, that's valid for entry. --Blue Tie 10:34, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Change of Title and High "Opinion Content"

I believe that we should change the title of the page to Global Warming Theory, since it is just that; a theory.Also, as you already know, the article leans very much towards the "Global Warming is because of People" crowd, and fails to mention many of the controversies surrounding the topic itself. These controversies should be included in this page, so it is known that human-caused global warming is not a proven or unchallenged fact.

—The preceding unsigned comment was added by Awaiting (talk • contribs) 22:35, 1 April 2007 (UTC).

We have been over this before. For the title: WP:COMMONNAME. The Googlewhack is roughly 400:1 for "global warming". Also, relevant scientific questions are discussed, and the controversy is mentioned and linked in the lead. See the archives. --Stephan Schulz 22:46, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

I don't think it should be called "Global Warming Theory" unless it only focuses on speculative matters. --Blue Tie 11:09, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Grammar on this page

i believe that the wording of glacier retreat should be changed to glacial retreat, glacial describing the word retreat, whereas glacier which is the noun form of the word. Kyt3 20:45, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

"Glacier retreat" is a compound noun, denoting the retreat of glaciers. "Glacial retreat" has the double meaning of "very slow retreat" and "glacier retreat", so I'd prefer (not by a large margin) the current version. --Stephan Schulz 20:55, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Glacier retreat implies the retreat of glaciers. Glacial retreat modifies retreat. Glacier retreat > glacial retreat. ~ UBeR 22:05, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

ok, i stand corrected thanks for the clarification 64.222.101.214 00:27, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

CO2 is now a pollutant

WASHINGTON - The Supreme Court rebuked the Bush administration Monday for its inaction on global warming in a decision that could lead to more fuel-efficient cars as early as next year.

The court, in a 5-4 ruling in its first case on climate change, declared that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are air pollutants under the Clean Air Act.

MARK SHERMAN, "High Court rebukes Bush on car pollution", Associated Press/Yahoo April 2, 2007 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070402/ap_on_go_su_co/scotus_greenhouse_gases Kgrr 00:13, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Clearly, the really irresponsible people are those that exhale. --Don't lose that number 14:44, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Is it inevitable?

According to what was said on February 2, 2007, global warming is inevitable. Also, I read in the book Our Earth, Ourselves that even if humans halted their emissions of greenhouse gases today, there would still be a 1 degree (probably Fahrenheit) increase in the Earth's average temperature. This includes those greenhouse gases already loaded into the air. 67.126.76.126, 02:14 3 April 2007 (UTC)

US officials can't talk about polar bears, and neither can you

This is copied from User talk:UBeR. UBeR deleted the following passage from this page on March 12:

US officials can't talk about polar bears

...Listed as a "new requirement" for foreign travelers on U.S. government business, the memo says that requests for foreign travel "involving or potentially involving climate change, sea ice, and/or polar bears" require special handling, including notice of who will be the official spokesman for the trip.

The Fish and Wildlife Service top officials need assurance that the spokesman, "the one responding to questions on these issues, particularly polar bears" understands the administration's position on these topics.

Two accompanying memos were offered as examples of these kinds of assurance. Both included the line that the traveler "understands the administration's position on climate change, polar bears, and sea ice and will not be speaking on or responding to these issues."

-- http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/polarbears_scientists_dc

Bleh!

I recommend that this be waved in front of every US science official's face at every meeting possible in public. As a US citizen, I don't think keeping it under wraps is going to help. I wish we had an article about this kind of science censorship. James S. 01:01, 10 March 2007 (UTC)

Why did you delete that from Talk:Global Warming? James S. 08:59, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

I deleted because Misplaced Pages talk pages aren't for discussion about the topic. This isn't a discussion forum. Talk pages are reserved for discussion improvements to the articles. P.S. Last I checked, polar bear population was rising. Thanks. ~ UBeR 16:14, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

I fully intended to incorporate that news item into the article. I have further questions:

1. Why do you suggest that the instructions of the Fish and Wildlife Service to refrain from discussing polar bears would not have been an improvement to the global warming article?
2. Why did your edit summary contain no hint that you had removed the passage?
3. What reason is there for anyone to believe that your deletion was made in good faith, and not as a deliberate attempt to censor information that you find personally uncomfortable?
4. On what grounds do you claim that the polar bear population is increasing?

According to Polar bear#Conservation status, "The population of ... polar bears has been shrinking. On the west coast of Hudson Bay in Canada, for example, there were an estimated 1200 polar bears in 1987, and 950 in 2007." James S. 07:30, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

"For example" looks like you've chosen the only example? mentions no shrinking population elsewhere just a theoretical threat and they should know. Threat to polar bears from global warming looks localised to me. --BozMo talk 07:47, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Just to point out: :"In areas where long-term studies are available, populations are showing signs of stress. Canada's Western Hudson Bay population has dropped 22% since the early 1980s. The declines have been directly linked to an earlier ice break-up on Hudson Bay. A long-term study of the Southern Beaufort Sea population, which spans the northern coast of Alaska and western Canada, has revealed a decline in cub survival rates and in the weight and skull size of adult males. Such declines were observed in Western Hudson Bay bears prior to the population drop there. Another population listed as declining is Baffin Bay." Hal peridol 11:05, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

looks alarmist to me, certainly POV or only talking about North America. At any rate Spitzbergen doesn't seem to have any problem, and there is data going back there although you may have to read Norwegian. --BozMo talk 11:26, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Actually i do read norwegian - and they do not have measurements for the area of Svalbard/Spitzbergen - estimation: stable but could be declining. Iirc this is the same for the data collected elsewhere. --Kim D. Petersen 14:59, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Seems a better place for this discussion/content would be Effects of global warming or Politics of global warming rather tha in the main article. Vsmith 11:32, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

In case this discussion would result in an article entry, perhaps these Canadian news regarding the US "discussions" would be of interest... bear numbers up, but rescue continues : As Nunavut government biologist Mitch Taylor observed in a front-page story in the Nunatsiaq News last month, "the Inuit were right. There aren't just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears." --Childhood's End 15:05, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Again, not a discussion forum. My responses to Mr. Salsman's fallacious arguments on my talk page. ~ UBeR 20:34, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Denying the existence of a controversy

Hey, if you want to keep this article biased in favor of the theory of anthropogenic global warming, I can live with that. But to assert or imply that there are no, or even few, dissenters, that's just downright fraudulent. The intro of this article should acknowledge the controversy and link to Global Warming controversy. Otherwise it sinks to the level of propaganda. --Don't lose that number 14:48, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Decent reference please? Or are we supposed to take your word for it? --BozMo talk 15:02, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Well, there is a controversy, but that article is already linked to in the intro. The sentence containing "hotly contested..." links to it. Mahalo. --Ali'i 15:05, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

All that this article is saying is that there are only a few dissenters who are experts in climate science. Count Iblis 17:40, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

Thanks, but this isn't a discussion forum about the topic. This page is for discussing improvements to the article. ~ UBeR 20:35, 3 April 2007 (UTC)

You mean improvements that advance your extremist left-wing ideology? Cause that's all that's allowed on Wikijoke. 12.145.184.6 18:44, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Why do you imply that this section is not a discussion about improvements to the article, and what evidence of that position do you have? James S. 11:11, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

It's dishonest to quote from the IPCC summaries as if they represented the consensus of all the world's scientists. These "summarizes" were written by UN civil servants to conform with a political agenda. They are produced separately from the scientific portions of the IPCC report. Lindzen was responsible for a whole chapter of IPCC report, but his views are not reflected in the summary.

Why give the figure for warming over the "last century" so prominently in the lead? The article itself admits that pre-1950 warming is unlikely to have anything to do with CO2 buildup. Kauffner 13:36, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

L was not responsible for a whole chapter. The summaries are not written by UN civil servants. Warming for "last century" is the value everyone uses. The article does not admit that pre-1950 is unlikely to have anything to do with CO2 - which particular bit are yuo misinterpreting to say that? William M. Connolley 14:03, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Strange: "Richard Lindzen, lead author of Chapter 7 of the main IPCC scientific report (IPCC, 2001a), has stated that the IPCC use the SPM to misrepresent what scientists say (Lindzen, 2001, p. 18)." ~ UBeR 19:47, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Lindzen was only one of 10 lead authors for Chapter 7, so WMC is entirely correct in saying he was not responsible for a whole chapter. Lead authors usually work on one subsection of a chapter. If anyone is responsible for a chapter as a whole it would be the coordinating lead author(s) (in this case Thomas Stocker), but even then the CLA doesn't write the whole thing by any means -- they "coordinate" the work of each LA as the title implies. Raymond Arritt 19:55, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Indeed, the UN process can be found here, and is nothing like the process you describe, Kauffner. What are your sources, so that we can compare? --Skyemoor 14:11, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Or a different description of the IPCC process can be found here (p.3) and it could be at least acknowledged that Lindzen has been a lead author for the IPCC whose views have never been reported by the summaries, as well as it could also be ackowledged that we cannot say that all the scientists participating in the IPCC reports agree with the whole of the reports. --Childhood's End 14:54, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Actually Lindzen only disagree's with the SPM - he's on record as calling the report and the technical summary "an admirable description of research activities in climate science" - that should be acknowledged as well - don't you think? --Kim D. Petersen 15:10, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Yes indeed, but he is nonetheless skeptical of many conclusions and of the existence of a consensus aint he? --Childhood's End 15:17, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

One would never expect 100% of thousands of scientist to agree 100%; such a criteria would have sunk every single scientific stance. --Skyemoor 15:57, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

So should I understand that you agree that any statement begining by "The IPCC says (bla bla bla)..." does not necessarily encompass the views of every individual scientist who has contributed and that as such, it is hypothetical to say that the IPCC represents a consensus view? --Childhood's End 16:55, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

That's a hypothetical scenario that ignores the preponderance of confirmation by, for example, the industrial nation science academies and societies that you are, by now, quite familiar with, so I will politely decline to comment on such a narrow, unduly constrained context. --Skyemoor 17:33, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Here is a first-hand report from Lindzen on the how the IPCC process works: IPCC report criticized by one of its lead authors To summarize, Lindzen was a "lead author" of the IPCC report who contribute to chapter 7. This is a 35-page chapter that discusses clouds, water vapor, modeling, and feedback, effects that can make several degrees worth of difference in projected warming. This is the only part of the chapter that got into the "Summary for Policymakers": "Understanding of climate processes and their incorporation in climate models have improved, including water vapor, sea dynamics and ocean heat transport." Here's a money quote: "The 'most egregious' problem with the IPCC's forthcoming report, said Lindzen, 'is that it is presented as a consensus that involves hundreds, perhaps thousands, of scientists . . . and none of them was asked if they agreed with anything in the report except for the one or two pages they worked on.'" Kauffner 15:29, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

If the SPMs were so far off as alleged, then where are the 1000s of scientists that protested the inclusion of incorrect language? Ok, perhaps there were 100s protesting? No, then maybe 10s? Indeed, any one country could have blocked any wording, so if there were serious question about any of the text, at least one country would have cut it.

In the most recent SPM, this actually did happen; China and Saudi Arabia protested the inclusion of a sentence that stated that solar influence in the recent temperature record was less than 20% that of GHG, so it was deleted. In this month's Scientific American, they report, "The difference is really a factor of 10," says lead author Piers Forster of the University of Leeds in England: compared with its historical output, the sun currently contributes an extra 0.12 watt of energy for each square meter of the earth's surface, whereas man-made sources trap an additional 1.6 watts per square meter. --Skyemoor 16:10, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Another point Lindzen makes is that IPCC has no effective peer review, so the even the technical material doesn't represent any sort of consensus. In other words, any given passage from the IPCC report is just the opinion of whoever was responsible for that particular section. Kauffner 18:27, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Odd -- I served as a reviewer for both the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. Guess I must have been hallucinating. Raymond Arritt 18:34, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Also odd that Lindzen, being lead author, under the above assumption would have had full sway to make it say whatever he wanted it to say (or not say). --Skyemoor 19:57, 4 April 2007 (UTC).

Lindzen was also a reviewer. His complaint is that his review comments were ignored. Kauffner 10:06, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Historical CO2 Chart

I've added more material to the chart showing CO2 levels over 100s of millions of years. Pertinent to the subject of GW is the combustion of sequestered CO2. --Skyemoor 20:18, 4 April 2007 (UTC)

Noah's Flood

I originally added the section on Noah's flood in early March, but it was almost immediately pulled without any prior discussion in the Talk section, which is the way it is supposed to be done. The one who pulled it, TeaDrinker, had this to say to me privately -

"Howdy, I wanted to let you know that I removed the section you added from the Global warming article. It did not appear that the position is particularly widespread, certainly not warranting an entire section. Feel free to discuss the removal on the talk page, if you wish. Thanks."

He also posted this note when he made the edit -

"rv to last edit by UBeR, probably original research, certainly not notable position on gw."

While articles in Misplaced Pages are formed by consensus, that does not mean that it is majority rule, as such tends to repress the obscure or unpopular, but nonetheless true, ideas. The matter we have here is certainly strange because of the position of those who want to make it appear that they are in the majority, and thus must be without fault in their position.

In the 1500-1600 AD the majority of the so-called learned men said that the world was the center of the universe and the sun, moon, and stars revolved around the earth. But the few who were in the minority (Capernicus, Galileo, etc.) were observing things which countless many before them had, and were coming to the same conclusions - that being that the earth was round and was rotating in space. The notion that the earth was the center of the universe and flat was, at best, a Johnny-come-lately idea, and not grounded in antiquity.

What is odd when it comes to the matter at hand is that then it was the so-called Biblical scholars who ignored natural phenomenon that could be scientifically evaluated were wrong, while those who not only observed nature as it really was, and who also based their conclusions on the science in the Bible were correct. The Bible speaks of the "circle" of the earth, and the courses of the seas. It was those things which Columbus and others relied upon when they headed out for the what many believed to be the edge of the earth.

But today we have almost the reverse of that situation. The so-called scientists are coming to conclusions based on fairly recent observations while at the same time denying the oldest facts of recorded history as preserved in the Bible and the vast majorities of cultures throughout the world - that fact being that there was a flood which destroyed the world. The belief that there was a worldwide flood is the most widely held story in the world, regardless of the differing religious , philosophical, or mythical views attached to it. All those people must had had some kind of common experience which generated the stories and beliefs. The Mayan story includes not only the flood, but a tower of Babel equivalent which includes the speaking of one language which was later confused when the people were scattered over all the earth. The thing is that many believe that the Bible record is the purest record of the common known event.

So, while TeaDrinker says that the position stated in my posting is "probably original research, certainly not notable position on gw," such is based on a very restricted view of the matter. Just because there may not be many among those who believe the Bible who understand what the Genesis record of the waters above the firmament being divided from the waters below the firmament (as explained in my posting) is really depicting, that doesn't mean that what I have presented is incorrect as to what that record portrays, or that the conclusions mentioned are scientifically unsound.

Where is the science that shows that when a thermostatic heating system (the waters above the firmament), as is shown to have existed before the flood (according to the Bible), breaks down that the poles and much of the area surrounding them would not almost instantly freeze, and then later melt as the earth reheated? This is not an unfair question. There is nothing else which can explain why animals have been found frozen stiff with food still in their mouths.

Any consensus reached on this article must be above political agendas and just present facts which a truth seeker may evaluate. But unless my posting is allowed to be evaluated by people reading it, there can be no consensus but only democratic bully-fest.

As a note on one of the leading proponents of the popular teaching of Global Warming, Al Gore. With all due respect to the man, he flunked out of divinity school. As one commentator put it, "He flunked God!" So it is not surprising that he is embracing a theory which is disconnected from the science of the Bible. Global warming is happening, but why is another matter.

So if anyone is intending on pulling the posting again, please use the proper procedure in discussing the matter before doing so, for anything short of that will be unfair and not look well should this matter go to arbitration. Anyone7 03:59, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I do not see how this belongs in the article. It is too much original research.--Blue Tie 04:17, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I am sorry if you feel slighted, but I think removal was and is the correct thing to do. You certainly did nothing wrong by posting it, that is being bold, however it is controversial and consensus should be reached before it added back, as is the custom/policy on Misplaced Pages. I have grave concerns that the material violates the no original research policy. Misplaced Pages is not the place to put new ideas, or even give new ideas a fair hearing. You are correct to say that Misplaced Pages is a democracy, but neither is it anarchy. Inclusion in an article follows rules, sometimes fairly restrictive ones. -TeaDrinker 05:14, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I concur, it violates the no original research policy. The header of the cited web page even specifies "Latest Studies". IMO, it should not be included here. --Galahaad 21:25, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Your saying that that which I posted in the article is "original research" and thus not worthy of being presented to people makes it appear that all of you suffer from a bad case of tunnel vision. In the link which you also removed were quotations from a tract published in 1940. I know that at least 50,000 copies of that study have been distributed, and more than likely more 100,000. But the basic theory did not originate with the author of those quotations for the idea has been debated longer than any of us have been around.

The idea that there was a layer of water above our atmosphere is certainly not original with us for it is discussed in the Wiki articles "Vapor Canopy," and "Firmament." Also, if you do a search on "water above the firmament" you will find many pages of links discussing different thoughts on the subject, including the one stated in my posting. So your whole argument that what I posted is"original research" stands without merit, and you must come up with something much better before you maliciously pull my posting again. Your past actions are of the very nature complained of in the "The Real Issue" section of this Talk area - that being that you all are acting as bullies and refuse to allow any opinion that is contrary to that which you have embraced.

The very fact that one editor uses the fact that the link is to a section on a web site titled "Latest Studies" as supposed proof that what I have presented is "original research" is just plain laughable. I say this because the introduction to the Global Warming article under discussion states this, "Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation." Therefore, the whole subject of Global Warming is something which has only been an issue "in recent decades," and most all written on it is "original research." For that matter, the very fact that the article contains "its projected continuation" shows that those who allow such speculation in the article do not mind an "original research" which fits their fancy because all such projections are nothing more than that as they have nothing historical to base their projections on.

I have noticed that others have complained about there not being an opposing position in the article, yet they too have been bullied out of the forum. It would seem that it would be necessary for them to have a completely separate article wherein they state their opposition, whatever it may be, and that one's such as myself will have to also have a separate article explaining the Biblical reason for the observed warming. But, of course,those new articles would rate links to them from the original article, so those additional articles would just be a burden for the seeker of truth to investigate as they would have to be jumping from article to article to get the overall picture. But those who know that is no better way than to keep people in ignorance than to obscure a matter by dividing it up in little pieces and scattering them all over the place would love to have such a state of confusion exist in this matter.

It appears that there is to be a show down on this matter. So if you have some better arguments than my posting being "original research" please present them so that all can fairly evaluate the matter, and not just base their opinions on the type of bald assertions you have made.Anyone7 02:40, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Sorry, but this is a scientific article, and material of the type you propose has no place whatsoever here. Raymond Arritt 02:47, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Again, we have comment from the same type of bullies that condemned Galileo. There are reputable scientists which have shown that the earth has what some call a "bathtub ring" around it, and that it was cause by a worldwide flood which practically all ancient culture acknowledge in one way or another. Those some cultures have added all kinds of false notions onto the historical facts doesn't leesen the reality of the flood which you and most of the scientists who are putting forth theories on global warming ignore because it doesn't fit into the picture that they paid a lot of money to be educated (wrongly) in.

As a note, about 2000 years ago the apostle Peter wrote, "Knowing this first, that there shall come in the last days scoffers, walking after their own lusts, and saying, Where is the promise of his coming? for since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they were from the beginning of the creation. For this they willingly are ignorant of, that by the word of God the heavens were of old, and the earth standing out of the water and in the water: Whereby the world that then was, being overflowed with water, perished: But the heavens and the earth, which are now, by the same word are kept in store, reserved unto fire against the day of judgment and perdition of ungodly men." 2 Peter 3:3-7.

Is he not saying that people in a time after his will deny that the flood occurred? The very fact that we are seeing that very thing today (and especially among those who claim to be scientists, and their blind supporters) would cause a candid mind to think that Peter had a special insight on today, and that some of the very "scoffers" he mentions may wake up and strengthen the things that remain when they realize that people back then were not ignorant of this world's true history.

I can't see how any of you are qualified to be editors on this article because of your lack of knowledge and prejudices. This opinion is not sole mine, as it is expressed by others' comments in this Talk page. Anyone7 15:24, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Attributed and expected effects

N has bloated this section - it has a see-main, it shouldn't be this big. I've cut it down somewhat. I regard the graph added as misleading and have removed it. For newbies, we've had similar wars over this in the past. The section needs to be trimmed further, IMHO William M. Connolley 08:47, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Would you please kindly refrain from characterizing this debate as a 'war'? You have in the past agreed to portions which you deleted, and for the reasons below I am restoring the removed passages and ask that you try to remain civil towards practitioners and advocates of actuary. Just because some stupid mob deleted your gambling page is no reason to suddenly start implying that actuary isn't science. James S. 09:17, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Sorry - I'm quite happy for actuary to be science if you like. I meant, *natural science*. And we had an edit war in the past over this, where you kept trying to insert an inapproriate graph against everyone else. Please don't do that again. The section you have added is too big, and inappropriate for this page, and misleading/wrong William M. Connolley 09:34, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Your use of warfare as a euphemism for editing disagreements is upsetting to me. If you want to continue using that terminology, then that will be your decision, but don't say I didn't try to warn against it, please. I believe that my application of a trend line and confidence intervals has been proper, and I reserve the right to continue. However, as a courtesy to you and those who agree with you, I have decided to refrain. I am sorry that you feel that a concise summary of the best available actuarial reports from the past five years is too much. I do not. I will continue to replace about the same amount of material. I also intend to establish a survey of how many paragraphs should be devoted to expected non-financial and financial effects, voting 4 and 3. James S. 12:05, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Censorship of Financial effects

I strongly disagree with this edit, and I ask that it please be restored. However, what really bothers me is the edit summary; in particular, "Financial effects - rm section. too big, not very good (too much stern), too far from page focus (science)"

Actuarial science is a science, and has been recognized as such for many centuries. I think the suggestion that Global warming can not afford seven paragraphs for it shows serious issues with WP:OWN from the climatologist who has the most edits on this article.

I have seen far too much mollycoddling of those who do not think twice about spouting lies if it serves their preconceived notions or their party line. If this behavior continues, I will ask for a third opinion about whether actuary should be excluded from the article because some climate scientist says that it isn't really "science" while at almost the same time supporting a detailed graph of an extrapolation to 220% CO2 which seems contrary, by the way, to several other studies.

And what exactly does "not very good (too much stern)" mean? Stern is the most recent actuary to address the issue, and his 2006 report is only given half the space of the leading reports for 2005-2002. If there is a critique of Stern's work, I have not been able to find it. If editors want to bad-mouth a respected scientist, I would respectfully request that they cite sources instead of putting such rubbish in edit summaries where they can not be removed or tagged.

And then there is this edit, which asserts, "may be partly due to increasing severe weather" in the face of several peer-reviewed authorities to the contrary, and deletes this vast swath:

"Kerry Emmanuel in Nature writes that hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with temperature, reflecting global warming. Hurricane modeling has produced similar results, finding that hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO₂ conditions, are more intense than under present-day conditions. Thomas Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya of the NOAA stated in 2004 that warming induced by greenhouse gas may lead to increasing occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms."

Again I object and although I see much good faith, I see substantial elements of bad faith, probably due to being worn down by those who are paid to lie. I recommend a wikibreak. James S. 09:10, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

The evidence for inc in disasters due to population is strong. Due to weather is weaker - I'm not really sure. Actuary is science (perhaps) but not natural science. If there is a critique of Stern's work, I have not been able to find it - then you haven't looked very hard. Try Nordhaus or Tol. Or stoat :-). Your section is far too long for something with a see-main William M. Connolley 09:37, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

If this were the Misplaced Pages of Natural Science, I would agree to exclude the finance section. As for the critiques which focus on inflation adjustment, storm damage is a recurring cost causing depreciation of durable goods. If you were to use a 5% per annum inflation adjustment year-over-year, it wouldn't make much of a difference because the bill for storm damage isn't a balloon payment at the end of time, it's a recurring cost paid periodically. However, the greenhouse gas pool in the atmosphere is elastic: If we overspend on mitigation, we can recoup our losses by spending less on mitigation in the future. Have any of Stern's critics achieved peer review of their critique? James S. 10:08, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

No - I mean this page primarily focuses on the natural science. Re crit of Stern - are you now saying that yuo *have* read the Nordhaus/Tol stuff? Either you have (in which case your original comment is deceptive) or you haven't (in which case your reading around this is woefully inadequate). I disagree with your reverts - but will allow others to comment before editing further. Your refusal to admit that societal changes are primary, and your insistence on putting weather first, is unpromising William M. Connolley 10:20, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I read a few summaries of them after you pointed them out. If you have any actual evidence that "reading around this is woefully inadequate" then please state it. When have I denied that societal changes are a major source? Since we have no way to predict future population growth with any accuracy, I can not say whether population growth will always be the primary determinant of financial losses to disasters. When have I ever said that it hasn't always been that way? This "much/most" distinction is interesting, but I think reacting to a disagreement with deletion shows an inability to edit well with others. If your deletions were based on the weakest evidence, then I would agree with them, but you are apparently trying to delete information about artificial sciences of global warming instead. James S. 11:57, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

The wind measurement system was change some years back and that resulted in more storms being put in catagory 5. Whether there is a financial impact depends on whether a storm hits a high-property value area, which has nothing to do with global warming. Katina hit a major city, so everyone heard about it. Meanwhile, a series of catagory 5 storms in the 1960s go unremembered because they didn't hit land. Kauffner 10:22, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Could you detail what changes you understand the wind measurement system to have undergone, and provide references? I don't doubt the first part of your statement, though it is overly broad. And what is remembered is not as important as what the trend is. Let's be careful not to gear this article to the perception but to the evidence. --Skyemoor 11:24, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Check this out. The Weather Service got some new toys in 1997 so they can measure higher wind speeds now. Andrew, a financially significant 1992 storm, has been reclassified as a catagory 5. (This article has one cool satellite photo of Andrew. Blow it up -- It makes a great desktop.) Kauffner 18:30, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I think the section should stay, however I would like to see it improved over time with more facts on existing effects and less speculation. But to say this article is already without speculation is completely wrong. The machine512 10:28, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Financial impacts should go into Effects of Global Warming, and must take into consideration not only population growth, but growth along coastlines. Yes, increased violent storms will increase damage, and insurance companies view this as a high risk, but higher valuation of exposed properties makes a difference in total financial risk, as Kauffner mentioned. --Skyemoor 11:24, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I don't find the section about financial effects too big. Well, maybe a little (Tony Blair's opinion seems not to be that important to me there). We have a small paragraph about the Kyoto Protocol, which is surely not dealing with natural science, but with politics. We have a quite big section about the relation to Ozone depletion, which I think is a minor topic compared to possible financial losses. While I recognize that this article needs a strong natural scientific pillar, for me this does not necessarily mean everything else should be excluded. To make my point, I'm in favor of cutting a few sentences out of the contended section and put it back into the article. Hardern 12:32, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

PS: This basically calls for a separate article Financial effects of global warming, or what do you think? Do we have something like that already?? I'm only aware of Effects_of_Global_Warming#Economic... Hardern 12:34, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

State of article

Guys, you're right. A section on financial effects is pertinent, and there is no reason a general overview like this article should not encompass a wide variety of subtopics. however this article is currently under the control of a small group of users who have decided they alone can decide the scope of the article. Since they have decided that, any other opinions count as peripheral and non-important. So that is a problem which we are facing. There seems to be little we can do about it. We currently have a mediation open, but it seems likely to accomplish little. So we're not sure. If anyone wants to put in a complaint, please feel free. Thanks. --Sm8900 13:41, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Is the mediation open or archived? I am a bit confused about that??--BozMo talk 14:55, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

it is unresolved, and still pending. Apparently the mediator did archive it, just because they felt they had sufficient input from all parties.--68.164.203.41 15:06, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I need to look at the financial stuff. I think the article should emphasize science but should not be solely about the science. On the other hand, without seeing the information, I think financial impacts would have to be shear speculation at this point. If it is, wouldn't that sort of demand a bit less space and a note to the effect that it is speculation? --Blue Tie 14:19, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

It doesn't matter what any of us think. Users do sometimes have the right to try out some new ideas, without having a few people veto them for no solid reason. --Sm8900 14:41, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Come on, don't worry. As for what any of us think, I think you use the word "few" rather flexibly. But I also tend to agree with the ?few ?majority that the article is too long and the financial stuff is largely effect... --BozMo talk 14:54, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I looked at the financial stuff, it seems to be relevant. (I note that risk is a combined measure of probability and cost so this is not a terrible addition). I agree users should be able to contribute without too much stress, but sometimes that means proposing on the talk page first. --Blue Tie 15:06, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Not an expert but doesn't the answer swing too much on discount rates, which is arbitrary, and isn't that too much for this article? --BozMo talk 15:15, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Maybe. I just surveyed without going into detail. I don't think the biggest problem is discount rates. The problem here is that we are talking about *forecasts*. One forecast is about the temperature rise. Another forecast is about the general climatological effects of that temperature rise. And now, a forecast about the financial effects of that forecasted climate change from the forecast tempera--ture rise. Do we say that 3 forecasts are too many? Based upon what critieria? If 3 are not too many, what about 4? If 3 are too many is 2 too many? Why is 1 not too many? and so on. --Blue Tie 15:37, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Blue Tie, if you feel something should be included, you should just recommend that. I have yet to see any major revisions accepted which did not align with the people controlling this article. With a major mediation under way, we should not be clouding the issue with these side-discussions, which we already know will never result in any new sub-topics being included. --Sm8900 15:59, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I *think* I have not edited the article in a while. (Because I think it clouds things) I am letting others do that. I do not mind commenting on the edits. I have already said that I have proposals for changes but I think the mediation should proceed first. --Blue Tie 16:24, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

The financial information looks relevant, but some is redundant (e.g. first and second sentences repeat the same information), and there are significant criticisms of the Stern report, which should temper the use of it as a source for economic effects. Also, I think that the Risks and Impacts image

File:Risks and Impacts of Global Warming.png

is more informative overall than the glacier thickness image in this section. Hal peridol 16:48, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

The graph on the right is weird. It has the appearance of some sort of quantitative analysis but it is really just opinion overlayed on numbers. I cannot detect any methodology for arriving at those conclusions. It just looks like a way to convey a belief, not a graph of objective information. I like the concept of the graph and would like to see something like it in the article but I do not think this one is right. The correct way to evaluate risk is to have P(scenario) X (delta) Cost of Scenario. Both may be subjective evaluations but there should be a methodology and transparency to the madness. --Blue Tie 18:12, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

You misunderstood me. I think you are absolutely entitled to edit this article. :-) I only meant that since we know there is a major conflict going on now regarding people's ability to edit this, then if something is cut which we feel should be included, we should call for its inclusion more simply and directly, and not get bogged down in minor points, since this is the major issue of dispute right now. --Sm8900 16:56, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

"Major" mediation, "major" conflict, "major" dispute but involving only a "few" people outnumbering you. Hmm. Anyway, BlueTie, on nested assumption my rule of thumb based on the essay "fernseeds and elephants" (by C.S.Lewis) is 0.7*0.7*0.7=.3 or put another way three pretty likely outcomes are unlikely all to be true so a theory based on three nested assumptions is rarely worth talking about. As I say these kind of broad scientific principles are the ones which entitle some degree of cynicism. --BozMo talk 18:19, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I have no idea what you are talking about with "Major" mediation, "major" conflict, "major" dispute but involving only a "few" people outnumbering you., But I tend to agree about nested assumptions. However, we get into a question of original research, particularly about how likely the issues are. 0.70^3 is a different number than 0.90^3. With just .70, even a single nest is questionable and the original topic is not so sure as to be legitimately uncontested. Just what level of probability do you ascribe to the first level here -- temperatures are rising?--Blue Tie 18:34, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

First bit I was just being flippant to Sm8900 so ignore it. On the probabilities what is the 90% spread of estimates of financial impact in 2100? Narrower than the difference in changing the discount rate from 0% to 4% I think. I am not in solution mode yet, just kicking ideas around. --BozMo talk 18:43, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Interestingly enough, I have some specialized software and experience in evaluating answers when inputs are ranges and vague, but that would get to original research and I would need lots of help with the "understood" inputs. Having said that, I think that the probabilities of temperatures rising is well over 90% and approaching 100%. As for the consequences, I believe that these are presently speculative and I think 70% is about as high as you can go. Once you assume a consequence the financial impacts are relatively much easier to evaluate, subject to what are probably reasonable assumptions -- including discount rates to bring the numbers into net present value, which can be estimated based upon the last 100 years history or something like that. Some of the financial impact is not even related to discount but rather to percentages of aggregate GDP which does not lend itself to discounting properties. A key issue for financial impact is the cost of a human life. This is very political. Courts tend to rule that an average life in the US is worth about $3 million. In the USSR, its about $118,000. They might both be right, but that is a minefield and I doubt any investigative body is going to openly walk into an industrial fan of that wattage. But, bottom line is, that in this case, I think the weak part of the nesting is more in the nature of the consequences rather than in the cost of them. --Blue Tie 19:21, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Ok. Temperature rising? Well, over 50% chance... the question is how much. Probability of at least 3C by 2100? God (or some of his self-appointed representatives on this talk page) knows...--BozMo talk 19:38, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

If you're going to do financial impact, what about the benefits of global warming? CO2 is plant food and promotes agriculture. Can anyone explain why Canadians hate global warming so much? To assume that the natural global temperature is the perfect one is join a nature worshipping cult. The global temperature has always been changing, and always will be -- sorry hockey stick believers. Kauffner 03:35, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are due to increasing severe weather?

I don't think Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are due to increasing severe weather and an increase in population densities. is supportable.

So what does the article support it with? The World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have linked increasing extreme weather events to global warming. Indeed? 29 is a link to an excitable Indie article, but what the WMO actually *say* is: "Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase,". This is not the same. 30 is a link to an EPA page that does not appear to link disasters to cl ch at all.

And so on. *nothing* there supports the assertion that there have been mor weather catastrophes because of GW (I'm taking the commonplace meaning of "weather catastrophes" as extreme weather events that inpact people/economics.

I would prefer: Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are primarily due to an increase in population densities and may be partly due to increasing severe weather but N keeps reverting it out. I admit I've provided no support for my version, so I'll offer this (part of a series) and perhaps better this workshop report wot sez 8. Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date. and 11. Because of issues related to data quality, the stochastic nature of extreme event impacts, length of time series, and various societal factors present in the disaster loss record, it is still not possible to determine the portion of the increase in damages that might be attributed to climate change due to GHG emissions.

Thats not all thats wrong with Ns additions, but I sense that its the core of the problem, so lets fix this. The new stuff is also too long.

William M. Connolley 19:33, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I have not been paying attention, but maybe, without good attribution, the whole statement should just go. However, I appreciate, value and commend your efforts at working with the editor. --Blue Tie 19:39, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

WMO does say, "might," and EPA says, "potential future impacts of global warming – such as sea level rise and increased storm activity and severity," and both of those, while non-absolute, are certainly a "link" for the purposes of the statement they support.

Why do you completely ignore Science, Nature, and J Climate, which directly support direct causation? Why are you not addressing those references?

I might be inclined to place the WMO and EPA after the stronger Science, Nature, and J Climate references. James S. 20:53, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

WMO says "might" *of the future*. So you cannot use it to support present and past. Ditto EPA. I don't think Science says anything about weather catastrophes - its about a shift in hurricane categories. Emanuel does not claim any trend in cyclone costs in the past. Etc.

So the initial statement - Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are due to increasing severe weather and an increase in population densities. - is not supported by your refs William M. Connolley 21:09, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Are you really claiming that a shift in hurricane categories doesn't say anything about catastrophes? James S. 21:30, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I said I'm taking the commonplace meaning of "weather catastrophes" as extreme weather events that impact people/economics - that is not the same thing as shifting hurricane categories. The damage (cost) signal is so noisy that you can't see SSTs in it (Pielke refs above). Permit me to repeat my Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date. - given that, why do you object to the phrasing Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are primarily due to an increase in population densities and may be partly due to increasing severe weather? William M. Connolley 21:38, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

"may be" is weaker than the sources say. James S. 21:41, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

OK, so you'd be happy with ''Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are primarily due to an increase in population densities... then? As to weather cats from severe weather... I don't see you've provided *any* sources for that at all. "may be" is the best you can get. Can you point to even one source that clearly attributes increased costs to recent cl ch? There must be some, but you haven't found them William M. Connolley 22:02, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

The statement you are objecting to doesn't talk about costs, it talks about the number of catastrophies, which is fully attributable to the sources which state storm strength is increasing due to GW. James S. 22:39, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

A suggestion: The financial impacts are at the very least interesting. And with the information that both of you have in mind, there could be enough room for another article. If that article is written (which would involve its own negotiations) then a summary could be included here and the issues would already be resolved. I would be interested in participating in that article also (and I realize that revelation might kill the idea).--Blue Tie 22:27, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I'm happy to see such an article. Once its of a reasonable standard it could reasonably be *briefly* see-mained into here. We might even manage to work on it together, since I suspect we are likely to agree William M. Connolley 22:52, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I don't like "Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are due to increasing severe weather" because that is a completely circular statement. It's like saying "Bigger hamburgers are caused by the increasing mass of beef in sandwiches." Also, "increasing" needs to be an adverb to modify an adjective - e.g. "Increasingly extreme weather catastrophes." Try to improve this section or state your case... I'll stop by later and see if it's gotten any better before I change it. It seems to me like if there's a causal relationship to be suggested, it's between Hurricanes and La Niña. (Which, by the way, has not increased since 1980 - only had natural variability despite what GW propaganda implies .) --Tjsynkral 23:14, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I've just made some improvements to the effects section. I've added better sources and removed sources that don't make sense and uncited/miscited statements. Keep an eye out for the inevitable POV-reverts that are sure to follow. --Tjsynkral 01:58, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Hi. Sorry to harp on this; if you do feel that POV reverts are habitually occurring, could you please state that for the record, at the mediation page? the more that we objectively state the problem, on the record, the more we can work towards some sort of resolution. Thanks. --Sm8900 16:32, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Stern

The financial effects section leans too heavily on Stern, and reports no alternative views, apparently because of N's If there is a critique of Stern's work, I have not been able to find it (why did none of our resident skeptics jump on this? Because they don't know their stuff of course. I'd have expected better from RonC though).

Alternative views are: the wackos in Wurld Economics (available here); Nordhaus the Review was published without an appraisal of methods and assumptions by independent outside experts. and The Review proposes using a social discount rate that is essentially zero. Combined with other assumptions, this magnifies enormously impacts in the distant future and rationalizes deep cuts in emissions, and indeed in all consumption, today. If we were to substitute more conventional discount rates used in other global-warming analyses, by governments, by consumers, or by businesses, the Review’s dramatic results would disappear; Tol via Prometheus The Stern Review can therefore be dismissed as alarmist and incompetent.

William M. Connolley 19:43, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

If an economic analysis spanning decades and centuries does not use a discount rate (discount rate=0) that would seem to be a serious problem in the results. There would be no capability to discriminate between issues over time or consider wise use of investment capital for competing issues. I cannot see any way to fix a problem like that. I was trying to imagine a scenario where I could agree. Suppose, for example, that we knew for sure that a large meteor was going to strike the earth in 150 years, with life extinction possibilities. How much is it worth it to me to spend money to fix a problem that I will not be alive to deal with? Maybe it is worth something if I am altruistic, but I must actually live today and cannot spend all my waking hours and days thinking about that issue -- which is the result of a zero discount rate. Maybe, under altruistic motivations, I might lower the discount rate, but I still cannot bring it to zero. --Blue Tie 20:00, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Thats largely besides the point; *your* opinions (or mine) don't matter; what matters is the crit that has been made of Stern. And there is plenty of it. Somehow N managed to miss it all. I think a "finance" section that leads with Tol is broken and should be removed pending fixing, not left in place. Stern is *not* mainstream: he is way out on a limb William M. Connolley 20:07, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Well, I don't agree that what we think does not matter -- and I note that you conclude your comment with your assessment of Stern. Here on the article talk page, a discussion related to the quality of the information and sources is not out of order and I was adding my two cents (if it is worth that much) to the issue. This is the sort of conversation that is reasonable when making editorial decisions, though it is entirely possible that my input is not useful or welcome. But from my (niave) perspective, a priori I am unaware of that. --Blue Tie 20:14, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

folks, the way things work at Misplaced Pages is that if you don't like something, add some text providing the other side. Not these constant, ongoing, wholesale reverts and deletions of entire sections which some people may not like. Not saying we're headed there, but just wanted to mention that. thanks. --Sm8900 20:16, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

No, thats not how it works: that just leads to a hopeless mis-mash of counterarguments. We should be providing a decent representation of current opinion. The current version is completely broken. I'm going to add some counterbalance but it will still be broken William M. Connolley 21:00, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

It is, in most political-topic articles. Maybe it isn't that way in most scientific articles. however, if this article is becoming a slightly political-topic article, we should try to reflect that. BTW, I appreciate the overt constructive tone of your reply. thanks. --Sm8900 21:09, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

It might do well to have a whole "Economics and global warming" article that would treat not just the economic consequences, but the economic assumptions that go into the SRES scenarios and so forth. The present article could then have a summary that would point the reader to the main econ article for more info. Raymond Arritt 20:32, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

The financial effects section starts out with Stern because he is the most recent in the series. If any of them are doing more than just self-publishing, then I might agree that Stern's critics should be cited, but I think they're full of it. If you ignore the discount rate for a long-term balloon payment, it makes a big difference. For continuous depreciation of durable goods and capital structures, not so much. Are any peer-reviewed economics journals taking any of Stern's critics seriously? James S. 20:57, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Stern is self-published, as Nordhaus points out. Have any PR journals taken Stern seriously, or are you keen on double standards? You do know who Nordhaus is, I hope? William M. Connolley 21:02, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Self published? Is that what you call the product of your nation's treasury? From the FAQ at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk:

8. What discount rate do you use?

The decision on discounting depends on two factors: first, how to take into account the fact that people are likely to be richer in the future; and second, whether the future should be discounted simply because it is the future.

We discount in the standard way to allow the possibility that people will have higher consumption in the future. Climate change implies that strongly divergent paths for future growth are possible. The use of a single set of discount rates for all paths is inappropriate when looking at non-marginal changes.

The degree of discounting depends on attitudes to income distribution, which are captured by the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. We use an elasticity of one, in line with some empirical estimates. For this case, the contribution to the discount rate is equal to the rate of growth of consumption of the path. This reflects an assumption that society is moderately averse to income inequality and therefore is more worried about adverse impacts that fall on poorer generations. If society were more strongly averse to income inequality, it would be appropriate to use a higher multiple of the average growth rate.

In addition, we carefully examine the case for discounting the future just because it is the future – which in economic terms is known as pure time preference. This requires a consideration of the ethical issues involved in comparing the incidence of costs and benefits between generations, some of which are distant in time. We argue – in line with economists including Ramsey, Sen, Pigou and Solow – that the welfare of future generations should be treated on a par with our own. This means that the only justification for a positive rate of pure time preference in assessing the impacts of climate change is the possibility that the human race may be extinguished. As the possibility of this happening is low, we assume a low rate of pure time preference, 0.1%, which corresponds with a 90% probability of humanity surviving a 100-year period. Higher probabilities of survival would imply a still lower rate. There are other approaches to pure time discounting and references are given in the Review (Chapter 2 and the appendix) and in the “Modelling Paper” on www.sternreview.org.uk.

The average discount rate used in the modelling exercise is then the combination of these two elements: the average growth rate over the relevant time horizon for the particular path being examined (in the case where the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption is one), plus the 0.1% pure rate of time preference.

Many previous studies have used higher rates of pure time preference, which are similar to those used for evaluating other kinds of investments. However, we argue that this disinvestment in the environment cannot be considered in, say, the same way as an economist would consider an investment in a railway. A railway can be replaced or redesigned, it can become obsolete or redundant. In other words, the probability of survival depends on the context. In this case the context is that of the whole planet.

Which was my point: Just like a railway, the costs are continuous, and not as a big balloon payment where the discount rate would matter. If you don't know enough about amortization to see that problem with the critics, then you deserve what you get for supporting them. However, I would kindly encourage you to figure out what they are actually saying and whether it makes any sense before adding them to the article. James S. 21:18, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Quoting huge blocks of text is a bad idea. I know Stern tries to justify his choice of DR. Unlike you, I know that a lot of people have criticised him for it. My opinions on discount rates carry little weight; Nordhaus's carry a lot; e.g . Writing the section with only Stern in shows either ignorance or bias; its hard to know which William M. Connolley 21:26, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Why do you keep calling six or seven paragraphs "huge?" What does an award to Nordhaus before the Stern report was published have to do with his opinion of it? And yes, peer reviewed economic journals are taking Stern seriously: Stern, N. (2006) "Climate Change: Reply to Barrett et al." World Economics 7(2): 153-7. James S. 21:33, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Gosh you can wriggle. Most unedifying . But if you like WR, then you'll love Carter and Tol: . Don't tell me... you weren't aware of that! William M. Connolley 21:58, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I was not. Do you have the PDFs to the actual text? Just by looking at the abstract, I am inclined to agree that those critiques would be great to include as balance to Stern. James S. 22:41, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I note that the financial effects section has been removed again because UBeR agreed with WMC that only natural science should be included. Yet the Kyoto protocol section remains untouched. Such hypocritical edits remind me of the worst kind of political manipulation. James S. 21:49, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

I'm a hypocrite for not touching the Kyoto section? (That is, not writing it.) It's a decent non sequitur. If anyone's a hypocrite it's those opposing sections on the global warming controversy, politics of global warming, global warming in popular culture, global warming in (non-scholarly) literature, etcetera on the grounds that this article is based on natural sciences. If you want your mostly post hoc ergo propter hoc arguments included, then agree the other subjects should as well, as they are all closely related to the subject of global warming. ~ UBeR 00:56, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I do not see how this can be just a science article, when so much of the issue is, er, global, and thus related to negotiations between countries. On the other hand, there seem to be problems with the sources you produced. William seems to have a track on some sources of respected information. What is your objection to these?--Blue Tie 22:11, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Uber, I'm having some trouble understanding your stance. I thought we were calling for more inclusivity, like within the mediation. Now it seems like you're objecting to individual section. could you please clarify? The whole point is that no one has the right to unilaterally veto other peoples' valid ideas. At this point, my main agreement is with Blue Tie. Enough arbitrary limits on the scope. Please clarify. Thanks. --Sm8900 01:25, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Uber, I have just reread your post, and don't totally understand it. Why should we ask James to agree to include those other sections, before you allow the financial section? I don't think he said he opposes them. isn't someone offering a finance section the kind of person who would probably support the sections which you propose? anyway, I don't see how these issues are related. thanks. --Sm8900 01:29, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

The real issue

Hello folks. here is something which I just posted at the mediation page, at Wikipedia_talk:Mediation_Cabal/Cases/2007-03-25_Global_warming. I suggest that we pursue the matter along these lines. Below is the post.

I would like to point out that on the mediation page, Zeeboid made a clear request. He said we should have a criticism section. W Connelly then disputed this. He said such things belong in the "controversy" article, and said that this article is for the science. Well I disagree. Why shouldn't the "Global warming" article contain a criticism section? An article solely for science should be entitled "Science of Global Warming." So I absolutely stand by Zeeboid's position. This is just one example of the kind of one-sided, totally unfair editing which has crept in, where one side makes an entirely reasonable request, and the other side totally undermines it, by claiming that they and they alone can correctly define the article's scope. I absolutely demand that this mediation lead to some sort of useful compromise, in the form of incorporating some sort of "criticism" section. --Sm8900 21:34, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Let me state this simply. Zeeboid requested a section on "Criticisms of global warming." The pro-GW side rejected that entire idea. mediation means we should come to some sort of compromise. However, compronise means some form of the original idea. Therefore I absolutely feel we should have such a section.

Misplaced Pages is supposed to be means of collaboration. Once several good-faith editors agree on some idea, and it is valid and relevant, that is supposed to be enough reason to do it in some form. Only in the global warming article are valid ideas dismissed so quickly. So that's why I want to state that this idea should be implemented in some form. Thanks. --Sm8900 01:09, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Write a good, well composed Criticism section, with WP:A and WP:NPOV, and add it. If it's truly a positive for the article, POV pushers like User:William_M._Connolley and User:Raymond_arritt won't be able to keep it out. --Tjsynkral 01:56, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Actually I'd be thrilled to have a section that exposes gaps in our current knowledge, and probably would contribute to it. The irony is that because Team Skeptic is so fixated on including points that aren't scientifically founded, they completely ignore the very real needs for further knowledge -- things like regional effects of global warming, vegetation-atmosphere interactions, and so on. The most constructive result would be to let your misconceptions go, familiarize yourself with the real state of knowledge on the topic, and summarize the points we need to know more about. But if you begin with a conclusion, especially one that is becoming increasingly untenable (...it has to be something besides CO2 - oh please, let it be anything except CO2...), you can never get anywhere. Raymond Arritt 02:34, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

err, ok Tjsynkral. I take it then you have no problem with the way this article has been managed? Not being ironic; truly asking, for sake of information. Thanks. --Sm8900 02:00, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

my comment mainly pertains to the current mediation. If you don't feel any mediation is needed, that's totally fine; however that was the main gist of this comment. that is the issue which I was focusing on. For the rest of you, my main point is there is a wide array of concerns here; I am trying to find one coherent way to find a concrete plan, which states alternate beliefs but provides some coherence. --Sm8900 02:03, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Nobody "manages" the article - or more correctly, everybody does. For example, this is why the POV statement "numerous scientists" and "few who oppose" was ultimately removed despite certain users crying bloody murder over taking them out and disruptively reverting them back in. Anything that's a clear improvement will stay, at least until the anti-skeptic viewpoint POV pushers get more sock puppets. Just don't do half the job and post it expecting that crowd to leave it up long enough for someone else to improve it - it seems like half-assedry is only permitted for pro-GW edits. --Tjsynkral 02:10, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Ok, if you feel there are no systemic problems with edit patterns to this article, no problem. If you feel that fair, well-written submissions are usually allowed here, I accept that. I'm not being ironic or sarcastic here; if you truly feel that, then that's totally valid, and maybe we should consider that. thanks. --Sm8900 02:16, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I thought we were supposed to have criticism in-line, not in a seperate section, although I don't remember where I read that. 209.11.184.1 03:23, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

To me, the most obvious example of POV in the article is the "Pre-industrial global warming" section, which covers some obscure theory linking farming and climate warming, but not the Medieval warm period/hockey stick hoax issue. The "Attributed and expected effects" section doesn't mention the possiblity of improved agricultural output due to CO2 buildup, warmer temperatures, and greater farmland area. Instead, it mentions "repercussions to agriculture," as if we knew for a fact that something bad was going to happen. Finally, the existance of scientific criticism of the IPCC "consensus", such as that made by Lindzen, Singer, Idso, et al., is never even hinted at. Kauffner 04:35, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Hi Kauffner. I agree with you. Please feel free to post your comment at the mediation page. The more voices we get there, the better. Thanks. --Sm8900 18:40, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

We may see an Armada of POV pushers here

Sm8900 has been busy recruiting an army of POV pushers see here and here  :( Count Iblis 21:39, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Full disclosure: You're no stranger to bending the rules to push POV. --Tjsynkral 22:58, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

All Republicans and conservatives are POV pushers! ~ UBeR 21:41, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

As are all Democrats and Liberals. Who cares? --Blue Tie 21:43, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

All Republicans and conservatives are POV pushers!. No, just the ones Sm8900 is recruiting  :) Count Iblis 21:47, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

First of all, those notices were posted a week ago. So I don't think an armada is coming. They're probably bottled up in the English Channel. For an explanation of what I mean, see here. If that makes you Sir Francis Drake, so be it. Hope you're good at bowling.
Now, as far as why I posted it, you'll notice that I was extremely open with the reasons I was requesting help. Here is my request:
"Please help us with the Global warming article. there is currently a small number of editors who are continually refusing to allow any dissenting views. thanks." I did not try to recruit an army of marauders. I stated exactly what I felt to be the case. besides even if I did try to recruit a band of banshees, there's no reason to think they would come. I'm not close to most of those guys. However, I reiterate my main point; my message was quite clear as to what I considered the main issue. Thanks. --Sm8900 01:17, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Sme8900 could you also explain exactly what the reasons where for asking at those specific pages? I mean seen from my viewpoint your request seems to indicate that you want a specific "type" of help. If you really think that the page needs help - then better places would have been somewhere scientific, neutral politically, somewhat corresponding in type of content and so on. Correct? Could you also try to explain how this helps with regards to the current mediation? --Kim D. Petersen 01:49, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Hi Kim. thanks for your message. The reason I asked at those pages is that they seemed like good pages to ask at. They seemed like a good place to get some alternate views. I don't have much more to add than that. I think they speak for themselves. Thanks for your message. See you. --Sm8900 01:57, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Sm89000, sorry? I'm really trying to assume good faith here - what exactly is your thinking behind "I asked at those pages is that they seemed like good pages to ask at" - why did they "seem" to be good pages to ask at? --Kim D. Petersen 02:50, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I guess our main difference is that I don't view this only as a science article, but as a societal/political topic as well. Anyway, if it's any reassurance, that canvass was the last that I planned to do. I did it a week before this became an issue, and have not done any since then. So it was simply a way to get some diverse views. Most articles do not suffer when alternate views come in. And I did not expect an onrushing horde; at most i figured we might get two or three fresh viewpoints. And, in the end, we got none here, and, possibly, just one at the mediation. So that was my main thinking. Thanks. --Sm8900 13:20, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

No such thing

What kind of crap is. there aint no such thing as global warming. its just a democrat scandal to get money

This isn't a discussion forum. ~ UBeR 05:09, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Neutrality

While this article is well written, I find that it is very superficial and biased in that it omits important information about those scientists and intellectuals who are skeptical of global warming. I expected to find even a small section discussing this issue; however, only a few sentences are attributed. There is a wealth of information that would cast doubt on the issue of global warming, and I think that whether the writers of this article agrees with these skeptics or not, we still need to report on them. Orane (talk • cont.) 05:44, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

There's a whole article on Global warming controversy that is linked from here. I'd be curious to see the "wealth of information that would cast doubt on the issue of global warming"; how much is published in the scientific literature rather than the popular media? Raymond Arritt 05:59, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Where is it linked? I don't see it. Oh wait, the tiny little box all the way at the bottom says Controversy. The machine512 07:02, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Actually, it's the popular media that exaggerates the issue. I'm aware of the article on the "Global warming controversy," and I suggest working some of that info into this one— simply linking it gives the impression that it's not very important. The way this article currently stands implies, "Global warming is happening, we are all gonna die. Oh, by the way, it's not really important, but some people are uncertain." The article has made some attempt to incorporate skeptics, but it needs to be clearer; the information is usually slapped unto the end of larger paragraphs as if it were an afterthought. Orane (talk • cont.) 06:14, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

The problem with this article is that a number of editors, and even worse administrators, have major WP:OWN problems and cannot see past their strongly held POVs. There is little hope for this article to follow the NPOV policy, sadly enough. Kyaa the Catlord 06:15, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Its one of those irregular verbs: "I protect from POV vandalism, you have WP:OWN issues, he, she or it is a POV pusher". Perhaps you should just consider that the problem might be your strongly held POV? Have a good Easter. --BozMo talk 06:32, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Actually, it isn't as much a POV problem as it is a problem of not following Summary style properly. Sure, there's Global warming controversy, but that article needs to be summarized and woven into this article, not just left with a short blurb in the lede. There's other layout issues, but that is the primary one I see. Titoxd 06:22, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I agree with this, and have made my case in the past which was ignored by the clique. Good to see others finally taking a stand. Lets move on with it and discuss more specifically what this subsection should contain. The machine512 06:58, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

There are so few scientists that do not recognize anthropogenic global warming; it would give the skeptics undue weight to include more than a passing mention with a link to the main article. There is mention in the attributed effects section, and I do not believe that it needs its own section with a main article header. -- Cielomobile 07:15, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

And having William Ruddiman's blurb on Pre-industrial global warming isn't giving undue weight to to the research of one man? The machine512 07:29, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Yet again we bring up the undue weight issue and I ask you to read the qualifiers:

From Jimbo Wales, paraphrased from this post from September 2003 on the mailing list:

• If a viewpoint is in the majority, then it should be easy to substantiate it with reference to commonly accepted reference texts;
• If a viewpoint is held by a significant minority, then it should be easy to name prominent adherents;
• If a viewpoint is held by an extremely small (or vastly limited) minority, it does not belong in Misplaced Pages (except perhaps in some ancillary article) regardless of whether it is true or not; and regardless of whether you can prove it or not.

Category:Global warming skeptics qualifies 2, nuff said. The machine512 07:43, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Indeed not. Significant minority would be at least 20%. Right now, it's hard to find 1% who are sceptics. --Skyemoor 11:19, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Where does it say 20% is required, or 1% for that matter? This is just an excuse I've seen again and again. Its either undue weight or this article is about science or undue weight or this article is about science. Back and forth with those 2 excuses. The machine512 12:53, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Who is even talking about the dissenting scientists? You don't mention political issues, such as policies taken by governments, you don't mention the type of contentions held by political parties... you barely even touch the fact that it is controversial. I am not encouraging bringing over the entirety of Global warming controversy here, but a larger summary (and yes, included a level-2 header!) is in order to maintain comprehensiveness, as required by the Featured article criteria. At the bare minimum, you would need to enhance navigation between articles, but that suggestion I made above was largely ignored. Titoxd 07:43, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

This article is about science. It already discusses the important "alternatives" - well there is only one, really, the solar stuff. Which has its own section. What other bits of science would you want to import from the GWC page? BTW, its really boring to have people keep saying that the page sez: "Global warming is happening, we are all gonna die". It sez nothing of the kind. William M. Connolley 09:59, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Is Kyoto Protocol science? The article is lacking so much because of this wildy strange idea that it all needs be science. I have never seen that excuse on any other page and I would certainly think it would conflict with wikipedia good editing policy. The machine512 13:02, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Well, primarily science. But mentioning Kyoto is inescapable. Happily its done briefly. So, back to the question you've avoided: which bits of science from GWC do you want to see imported here? If the answer is "none" - you just want to see more controversy - don't hesitate to say so William M. Connolley 13:15, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Well I would like to see more science on the Little Ice Age (as there was in the past). But its funny that you say "you just want to see more controversy" when there is practically nothing about controversy on this page. It is denying the fact that there are huge articles about global warming controversy, politics of global warming. I also find it odd that this talk page has a tag stating "This topic contains controversial issues, some of which have reached a consensus for approach..." yet the article, and you, completely deny this. The machine512 13:45, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

How was it decided that skeptics are the minority? AFAIK, no one has polled qualified scientists and asked them:

Over the next 20 years, do you expect global temperature to:

a) Rise significantly with major negative consequences

b) Rise with positive or undetermined consequences

c) Fall significantly

d) Stay about the same

e) No opinion or don't know

f) The question cannot be answered with a scientifically significant degree of certainty.

I suspect that a high percentage will respond "e" or "f". Until there is a reason to believe that the overwhelming majority will respond "a", there is no basis for the talk of consensus. Kauffner 10:27, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

If you want polls. Here you go, 1 . The machine512 12:44, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

By the way, that second poll is from a scientist whos polls where published with UNEP in the past. See this]. Strange it was taken down from the UNEP website. The machine512 13:08, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

You're making the mistake of thinking this page is about opinion. It isn't. Its about reporting peer reviewed reseach. So you only have to look at the papers to see that no-one at all says (c) or (d). You missed out "rise" with no mention of consequences which is what the article is mostly about. William M. Connolley 10:54, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I concur. Nobody cares about anybody's opinion here. We care about references. If the opinion of even the most reputable scientist is not supported by the litterature, one is free to "believe" him, but it's all but science. If a scientist has a serious point against the AGW, he will publish it in the scientific litterature (and no, an interview published in "New Scientists" is not scientific litterature...). For now, there is an overwhelming scientific litterature acknowledging GW, and its anthropogenic nature. The most prestigious science academies of the world and the most prestigious scientific instituions have endorsed the AGW. 1, 2 or more dozen of scientist's opinion, relying or extremely rare, if any, publications will not change anything to the matter. --Galahaad 00:05, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

The poll only covers 20 years, so would be misleading anyway.

File:Risks and Impacts of Global Warming.png

--Skyemoor 11:19, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

william, I would appreciate it if we could all please stop telling others what it is a mistake for them to think this page about. This page can be a combination of several topics which good-faith users want.

There is no reason this article neeeds to only be about science. It can also be political and societal aspects of the issue,. This constant repetition of the idea that only a few users know what this article should be "about" is what is creating this negative atmosphere. So I feel this should be an open topic of discussion. --Sm8900 13:28, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Global warming is a scientific concept. It certainly has political, economical, societal, etc ... implications, but the process itself deals with science. For all these other topics connected to GW, there is a series of other article linked in "Subtopics" and "Related articles". --Galahaad 00:15, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Financial effects section proposal

I replaced the financial effects section. James S. 19:25, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Obviously no, since this suffers exactly the faults of your original William M. Connolley 09:50, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

This is a properly sourced report. I see no reason to not include it. Anyone who dislikes is always free to post opposing information, whether on the topic itself or on the source of the report. --Sm8900 13:17, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I vote no until other non-scientific topics are allowed to be discussed in this article. ~ UBeR 17:28, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Uber, I don't understand your position.If you do favor admitting other topics, why are you not more vocal about that? and why are you using all your efforts to oppose someone who does want to bring in another subject? I don't understand. If you could please explain, I would appreciate it. Thanks. --Sm8900 17:57, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Sm8900, you are misunderstanding me. Apart from the obvious flaws and misinformation in the section, I don't have a problem with a financial or economic section so long as other non-natural science topics are also allowed. ~ UBeR 18:49, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Hi. Ok. I appreciate your reply. However, why is it only "so long as other non-natural science topics are also allowed"? Why not simply argue for its inclusion? The pro-GW people will probably block it anyway, no matter what you and I do. So why not make it our point of attack, and give others something to rally around? Thanks. --Sm8900 19:00, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Why is this one being included again - there is ample critique of the one-sided focus here on the Stern report - see above. As far as i can see none of the critique has been included. As this section stands - i'm in agreement with WMC and UBeR - it has too many faults to be included as is. Recommendation: create a subarticle - explore a consensus article on this subject - and when done - include as a summary on this page. --Kim D. Petersen 18:07, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I have added a ref with the best of the critiques with a see also to some more. James S. 19:25, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Erm - sorry - but while you have included a graph - it still endorses Stern. Where is the Nordhaus study, where is the comparable study from IPCC WG3, where is Toll, where is Lomborg etc. - Yes Stern is the newest - but that is no excuse for not discussing anything else - in fact since Stern is the newest it should actually be touched with care - since you haven't got all of the critiques yet. It should really tell you something when WMC and UBeR agree on something - they usually have quite opposing views. Your section is as it stands POV - and quite blatantly.

I'm surprised that the normally sceptic voices haven't chimed in here - Stern is if anything alarmist (and thats not from my opinion - but the collected opinion of almost all environmental economists). --Kim D. Petersen 19:49, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Please provide URLs and/or citations to the work of Nordhaus, IPCC, Tol, and Lomborg you cite. Tol is one of the authors of the critique I have included. James S. 20:32, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

You can find all of Nordhaus works here, Tol's here as for Lomborg i suggest that you read the Copenhagen consensus - and his critique of Stern. --Kim D. Petersen 21:11, 6 April 2007 (UTC) (as for the IPCC report - you should be able to find that one i suspect....) --Kim D. Petersen 21:13, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

The black line in the CO2 image

File:Carbon Dioxide 400kyr-2.png

I have a problem with these measurements. How are CO2 measurements from Mauna Loa Observatory on the Mauna Loa active volcano, (volcanos are huge emitters of CO2) providing accurate data for this image? Isn't this skewing results?? The machine512 18:01, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Description from image:

1. (black) Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf (2004) "Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network" in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

The machine512 18:04, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

From Mauna Loa Observatory "The primary observing site is located at the 11,000ft level on Mauna Loa north slope". Is this some sort of joke? A measurement from the apex of a volcano is providing data for an image which caption says "The Industrial Revolution has caused a dramatic rise in CO2". The machine512 18:34, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I would like to hear the reason for this. But, this just proves my point of POV (worse than POV, outright lies) by the editors and maintainers of this article. I highly recommend deleting the black line, or image altogether if it can't be fixed, as it is pure misinformation. The machine512 19:04, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Please note that this observatory was built over 50 years ago, by what was then called "The Weather Bureau" - people who presumably had an interest in accurate observation. At some point it came under NOAA (or did the Weather Bureau become NOAA). In any case, as their FAQ states,

MLO also protrudes through the strong marine temperature inversion layer present in the region. This inversion layer acts like a lid and keeps the lower local pollutants below the observatory.

Q: Does Kilauea volcano affect the measurements?

A: As mentioned above, the inversion layer keeps the vog below the observatory. During conditons when the inversion layer is weak or nonexistant, the sulfur dioxide affects some of the instruments sensors. Dust particles(aerosols) affect the solar radiation measurements.

I don't know if that resolves your concern, but it doesn't seem likely to me that this site was selected as part of some grand conspiracy among weather wonks all the way back 50 years ago. It sounds like there are times when their readings will be inaccurate because of the volcano (so your instinct is good in that sense), but also that those times are limited so that they will know when the data needs to be discarded. Maybe someone who is more of an expert on how this is handled can weigh in, though. --MoxRox 19:29, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

This is just such a piece of gross arrogance. You really think the people taking the measurements don't know they are on a volcano? Secondly, even if they were wrong (which they aren't, since they are backed up by sampling across the world), they are what are used. Your opinion of their validity is worth nothing (as well as being hopelessly wrong, of course). And anyway, if you want to waste words on this, you should do it on the image talk, not waste valuable space here William M. Connolley 19:32, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

WP:CIV is lost on you. Anyway my opinion is that if better source material can be used, it should be used. If there is any doubt of the correctness of any material, even if one's opinion is that it's an invalid doubt, it would be best to use data that is not contested and improve the article. Having said that, does anyone have a suggestion of a different data source to replace this image with? --Tjsynkral 01:10, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Trying to understand the nature of your objection. Are you objecting to the use of the Mauna Loa data? That data set is so widely cited, and has been so widely studied, that its applicability as a measure of atmospheric CO2 simply isn't open to question. If you're concerned about something else, let me know. Raymond Arritt 01:18, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

The fact that it is widely cited does not make it a valid data source. If anything, doubts about the accuracy of the data cast suspicion of factual errors onto all of the research papers that cite that data. I believe that if a second data source, preferably one in a different jurisdiction from the first (e.g. not another sensor on Mauna Loa), could be provided to corroborate the Mauna Loa data, then both could remain and the data would be that much more reliable. Nobody's saying that anyone CAN use it or CAN NOT use it, remember, this is WP. --Tjsynkral 01:30, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Well, that's certainly an interesting perspective. As for corroborative data, here's a start. Raymond Arritt 01:38, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Recent changes by Picofluidicist

Picofluidicist's most recent pair of edits, I believe, among other problems, go beyond the scope that WP:SUMMARY asks of us. Also, given his recent misinformation and unattributed statements, I'm not exactly sure of the accuracy of the most recently added detail. ~ UBeR 18:53, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I took a quick look at the diffs you gave and his/her facts on temperature change, sea level rise, and so on look OK. (The mixture of U.S. and metric units ought to be sorted out but that's another issue.) What do you think is "misinformation"? Raymond Arritt 19:04, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I hope WMC weighs in on Picofluidist's description of the adequacy of water vapor models. James S. 19:48, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Recent changes by James S / Nwhatever

First, it would be a good idea to browse the sorry history contained in Talk:Global warming/extreme weather extrapolation graph - from which you'll see N's dtermination to push his stuff no matter how often it gets rebutted. Also Misplaced Pages:Requests for arbitration/Depleted uranium is relevant, in particular James S. is placed on Probation. He may be banned from any article which he disrupts by tendentious editing which I think he has just about got to now.

The entire financial section is unbalanced. It leans far too heavily on one thing - the Stern report - and fails to discuss any of the many other studies *at all*. The criticism of Stern - which has been heavy - is relegated to "The Stern Review has been criticized by economists" with no detail at all.

And... this is a see-main section. It is supposed to be summarising what in the sub-article. But of course James can't be bothered to get it right in there first and insists on disrupting an already heavily fought-over article William M. Connolley 20:09, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

How do you think critiques of the Stern Review should be presented? I have been editing the sub-article. Why do you think I am being tendentious? What detail about the critiques do you think would be best to include? James S. 20:26, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

For crit: How about ? (and is deeply tendentious: you know full well that the crit of Stern is that he wildly overestimates due to tiny discount rates, so stop adding irrelevance). You are repeatedly re-introducing material that is badly biased. You've sneakily removed a nice ref for the "primarily pop" stuff . You've restored "are partly due to increasing severe weather" despite having no evidence for this at all. Et c etc. You ask for refs to Nordhaus that I've already given. Etc etc William M. Connolley 20:36, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

You are saying that including the first sentence of the conclusion from the critique you asked for more detail of is tendentious? I would like third opinions on that. I do not believe that the concerns about the discount rate are valid, for the reasons that I have posted from Stern's FAQ above. Removing from a bare inline reference was not "sneaky" -- it was used to support a statement that is even weaker than tautology.

Please think about that for a moment. You have been trying to defend the statement that increasing catastrophes from extreme weather "may be" due to increasing severity of storms. How can you possibly defend that when by definition the number of weather catastrophes increases with increasing storm strength?

Do you honestly think I am being unethical? James S. 20:51, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

There is some history here that I am not aware of, but FYI, the first example William gave was not an edit by James but rather an edit by William from what I could tell. I think that the whole area that James is trying to develop may deserve its own page... not as a POV fork -- both sides could be presented, but because it might be overwhelming for this page. I would suggest though that the graph you have put into the article looks suspiciously bad. --Blue Tie 20:55, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

The graph is adapted from the Tol and Yohe critique. Maybe people would like my graphs better if I started discriminating against the colorblind, like many of the existing graphs do. James S. 21:01, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Of course the first diff is from me - its not an example; its the proposed text that would more honestly represent Tol and Nordhaus's opinions rather than the pathetic text N has included. 'm glad you agree it deserves its own page.

How can you possibly defend that when by definition the number of weather catastrophes increases with increasing storm strength? - yet more tendentious stuff. No - its not at all true. Weather catastophes - the most obvious is Katrina - depend heavily on where things happen; not necessarily how big they are. Damage is a very messy statistic, which is why finding a signal in the damage related to climate is so hard.

I do not believe that the concerns about the discount rate are valid - yet more tendendtious stuff. *Your* opinions on this aren't of interest. Tols and Nordhaus's are. Nordhaus sez: "the Review proposes using a social discount rate that is essentially zero. Combined with other assumptions, this magnifies enormously impacts in the distant future and rationalizes deep cuts in emissions, and indeed in all consumption, today. If we were to substitute more conventional discount rates used in other global-warming analyses, by governments, by consumers, or by businesses, the Review’s dramatic results would disappear" . William M. Connolley 21:05, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

All other things being equal, an increase in storm strength by definition would lead to an increase to the number of extreme weather catastrophes. Are there any authorities which agree with your rejection of that premise?

I was not referring to my opinions, I was referring to the section of Stern's FAQ posted above.

If what you say is correct, you should be able to support it easily enough. For the lack of a relation, I've already referred you to . I don't see the word "storm" in the Stern FAQ. Do be so good as to quote the text that supports your view William M. Connolley 21:29, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Again, I request third opinions on your accusations of tendendtiousness. I am sure you believe Stern's critics on the question of the use of a discount rate, but I find it sad that you would resort to such accusations and threats of banning instead of trying to present both sides of the dispute. James S. 21:13, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Experience shows that you will talk endlessly and repeatedly bring up irrelevance references. Which is why the arbcomm case produced the result it did William M. Connolley 21:29, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Pardon me, but I left this article completely alone for almost an entire year. If you persist in making such personal accusations (i.e., "endlessly," "irrelevance references") then I will escalate my request for third opinions. James S. 22:04, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Proposal re Stern Review critiques

I have solicited opinions from economist editors on Misplaced Pages to evaluate whether the discount rate critique is valid against Stern's analysis of recurring costs. James S. 20:58, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

A good suggestion. --Kim D. Petersen 21:16, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Note that James directed them to t:Stern not here William M. Connolley 21:58, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

I also note, from Talk:Stern Review#Discount Rate that some have advocated truncating the duration of the present value estimation at 2100 or 2200 instead of computing it as a perpetuity. Is there any reason not to estimate as a perpetuity? Fitting a logistic sigmoid curve to the carbon dioxide trend suggests increases until after 2300. James S. 21:36, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Protection

I've protected the page until issues can be sorted out here. 3RR violations abound, but rather than starting to block people, I think that it would be more productive to allow them to participate in the discussion. I should say that I was careful no to look at the nature of the last couple of edits, as I didn't want to know which version of the page I was protecting. Please settle things as quickly and as amicably as possible, so that I can unprotect the page. Thanks. --Mel Etitis (Talk) 22:03, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

It would actually be a good idea to keep the page protected for a long time, say 6 months. The people who want to write more about dissenting views, should write a complete article in that period and upload that to a subdirectory of the page. Then we can vote on whether to work from the present version or the new version. Count Iblis 23:11, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Misplaced Pages has two founding principles that would make that plan incompatible; first, pages should be unprotected ASAP, second, WP:NOT a democracy. --Tjsynkral 01:05, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

I concur with Tjsynkral on this issue, at least in the first part. Pages should not be protected for 6 months at a time simply to prevent editing. --TeaDrinker 01:21, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

The idea is not to prevent editing but to make editing easier on the long run. Perhaps 6 months is too long, but I think that we have to say to the critics that they should put up or shut up. Let them produce a complete article and let's vote if we want to start editing from that version or this version. Count Iblis 01:45, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

I sense and share your frustration, but I think static articles, even with occasional opportunities for review and revision, is not really consistant with Misplaced Pages's underlying principles. --TeaDrinker 02:00, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Second TeaDrinker. The relentless attempts of some editors to change the article to suit their views are endlessly frustrating, but long-term protection is not the solution. I am not sure what is, but it is certainly not that. -- Cielomobile 02:54, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Regardless of any merits to holding the article static (and there are some), the idea is a non-starter because it goes against what Misplaced Pages stands for. I think the whole skeptic mindset is simply one example of the tendency for people to pull the wool over their own eyes and cling to scientifically untenable beliefs that make them comfortable, whether it be demagnetized water, pyramid power, or whatever. They will always be with us. I don't know what the long-term answer is. I'm not convinced there is one. Raymond Arritt 03:17, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Misplaced Pages isn't suited to this sort of article, because in most cases the views of those who insist on peculiar, non-standard, and groundless or poorly-grounded positions have exacttly the same authority as those who know what they're talking about (with certain exceptions: Holocaust-deniers, for example, aren't tolerated in the way that climate-change deniers are. The difference between the two is moral rather than epistemological, of course). Many edit wars are based on the inevitable fact that those who do know what they're talking about treat the article and other editors as if truth were what mattered, even though that goes against Misplaced Pages policy. That, I think, is in part what's going on here. Both sides are behaving badly, and from the Misplaced Pages point of view there's no excuse for either (even though from a non-Misplaced Pages – e.g., an academic or scientific – perspective, one side is clearly right and the other's clearly wrong).

The article should remain protected until it looks as though edit-warring won't immediately restart; that means that both sides have to try to come to an agreement here. If either side feels that there's no point — well, there's always Citizendium for one side and Conservapedia for the other... --Mel Etitis (Talk) 09:41, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Your views here are naive: there is no chance of "both sides" coming to agreement - insofar as the idea of sides makes sense. Read the endless discussions above. At the moment we are having two stupid wars: one about tagging, because the septics want to expand an already over-long article to include even more controversial stuff (what a great idea! they have no science to muddy the waters with so need to drag in the politics). And a rather more minor one because James S wants his over-the-top "financial effects" stuff inserted. We have endless talk already; we've had a mediation going nowhere; in the good old days we had an RFA on this William M. Connolley 21:54, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

As long as Misplaced Pages is the encyclopedia anyone can edit, there will be edit warring on Global Warming. You know why? Because the science really isn't there yet. The science and the consequences of ozone depletion are abundantly clear, and as a result there aren't edit wars about that. William M. Connolley's "Assume Bad Faith" philosophy dictates that the same people who are allegedly edit warring to push conspiracy theories would obviously be doing the same on the ozone depletion page. But the thing is, that just isn't happening, because there is no uncertainty about the validity of the science behind O₃ depletion. Although William M. Connolley and a few other users are foolishly convinced that we have enough scientific research to prove AGW beyond a "theory" (which is silly, because most of our scientific findings beyond things like gravity and inertia are still in "theory" status), the facts do not support that. Since they don't have facts to back their argument up, they revert and edit war to include statements with non-WP:RS and/or WP:SYN. They also dictate that certain things may not be included in "their" articles, even if they are well written and cited. If this is happening, wouldn't it be better that we just have edit warring, and then the users who exceed 3RR are dealt with and the ones who obey the rules are assumed good faith? Protection isn't ideal. Really the only way to remove the problem is to start blocking users who violate attribution guidelines and revert their non-WP:A statements back in, and also the users who delete content from the article repeatedly, and then the article will see less of the problem. And it's important that we ensure that any user who is blocked doesn't have the tools to un-set the block. --Tjsynkral 22:51, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

I have requested unprotection, as I do not believe there is a problem with "edit warring" that justifies protection. If certain users are engaging the page in an edit war they should be dealt with individually, but the page should remain editable so that it can be continuously improved. --Tjsynkral 22:59, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

While it's obvious that Connolley's position is correct, I can only repeat that – as Misplaced Pages's policies stand – that's virtually irrelevant. And if I had decided to block for edit-warring, I'd have had to block people on both sides (actual violation of 3RR isn't the sole criterion); I preferred not to. More importantly, I haven't seen any attempt here to reach consensus — not even to prove how naive I am. --Mel Etitis (Talk) 23:18, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

To clarify, you're referring to his position on the futility of protection, correct? Also, your personal preference, while it may be something to be respected, is not the best answer for the project. Page protection is contrary to the pillars of Misplaced Pages and should be undone as soon as possible. It is better to block a few than to block everybody from editing the article and therefore halt productivity on improving the article for everyone just because of a few who are creating problems. --Tjsynkral 23:45, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

No, I mean his position with regard to the subject of the article — science vs politics. And this page shows that, even when editing is impossible, few editors here seem very interested in co-operation — it's a mess. --Mel Etitis (Talk) 14:59, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

The irony of one of the most aggressive edit warriors requesting unprotection despite "a few who are creating problems" is duly noted. Raymond Arritt 23:57, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Are you accusing me of being an edit warrior? WP:KETTLE gladly recognized. --Tjsynkral 00:04, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

I would support unprotection to include yesterday's Summary for Policymakers, if and only if we can gain a Misplaced Pages consensus in the text to be included about it first. I think this is a great opportunity to see how well the sides are willing to work together. James S. 23:45, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

I think I speak for most of us when I say, we need to see the text first to make a decision about it. Can we talk about this document? Most likely yes - provided it does not try to add or omit anything from the source document or pervert its meaning to support another position. --Tjsynkral 00:04, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

As it is a 23 page document it seems that an independant article summarizing it would be the way to do it (maybe it's already done) and then link from the global warming article. Also as the report focuses on the effects of global warming, that would be the place for a summary - and it isn't protected, so just do it (as above, maybe already done - haven't checked). Either way there is no need to write a major section for this already long article or to rush to unprotect. We also don't need someone speaking for us and acting combative about imagined perversion of meaning before anything is done. Did anyone mention assume good faith? Sounds like someone is ready to wage an edit war before anything is written. Vsmith 01:37, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Vsmith, you are another user who seems content to accuse me of something I haven't done yet. For your information, the message I responded to spoke of discussion on talk - not edits. As far as WP:AGF, kindly remove the plank from your eye. --Tjsynkral 02:10, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report would be the obvious place to summarize the new report. That article includes a listy summary of the WG I report that was released in February, but so far nothing more than a placeholder for the new WG II report. Raymond Arritt 01:43, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

You beat me to it :-) - I just added a link to the PDF file there so go for it. Cheers, Vsmith 01:57, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Keep a close eye on edits by User:Count_Iblis

User:Count_Iblis is back to his old crap. This time he inserted "Only a few dissenting scientists specialize in climate science" without any kind of source material to back this blanket statement up. I've removed it but I fully expect him to revert 8 times to keep it in, so be aware and keep the article to high standards. For much of the time that this sentence was in the intro, a whole section on Noah's Flood was present in the article, too. Is it any wonder this article is up for FAR? We must all hold ourselves to WP:A and avoid WP:OR and WP:SYN. --Tjsynkral 05:12, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Hi. Are you for or against mediating this article? Posting a message to watch a habitual user for mailicious edits points to a sign of dysfucntion within the article. That does not always mean mediation, but it is a point in favor of mediation. But when i mentioned the need for mediation, you simply said any valid edits will always be accepted. I don';t have a problem with any of your statements, but if you do feel there is a situation requiring these extreme actions, I assume you feel the mediation is somewhat valid, for whatever reason? thanks. --Sm8900 13:25, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Reverting this talk section back in. Please see WP:TALK and do not delete talk page comments. The user who did this should have known better. --Tjsynkral 00:34, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Please limit your comments to discussions of contributions not contributors. --TeaDrinker 01:32, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

We must all hold ourselves to WP:A and avoid WP:OR and WP:SYN. Not true, see here:

This page is an official policy on the English Misplaced Pages. The concept expressed below is fundamental to the encyclopedia's operation. It has a long tradition and a deep and subtle meaning. Please consider this before editing the page. When in doubt, discuss first on the talk page.

If the rules prevent you from improving or maintaining Misplaced Pages, ignore them.

In case of this article, this means e.g. that you cannot use the rules to keep relevant undisputed information out of the article just because you can argue that WP:OR, WP:SYN or whatever other rules are somehow violated. You have to argue on the facts themselves first. In that discussion the issue of WP:OR, WP:SYN etc. may well come up, but that's in the context of discussing the facts.

E.g., if you disagree that there are only a few number of dissenting scientists who specialize in climate science, then let's discuss this. Maybe we should quantify this number. If the issue is that you agree with the statement but that it should be cited, then you should use the "citation needed" tag. But if you just delete the statement because it is OR, then that deletion makes the article worse. The issue of OR could come up e.g. if I do a pesonal investigation in this matter and come up with 9 climate scientists who disagree. Then that precise number of 9 is OR. The word "few" is not OR because that's pretty obvious. Count Iblis 13:13, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

I don't believe your edits reflect consensus, so they don't qualify for a WP:IAR exception. Basically, you are free to insert your personal opinion into the article and thus taint its factual accuracy - but the rest of us are free to revert it back out because it obviously reflects improper synthesis. --Tjsynkral 23:18, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Can you find a news article that makes the claim that only a few climate scientists have doubts about global warming, or it's cause? If a reliable source does a nose count then the numbers can be used in the article, but if a wikieditor synthesizes data to do his own nose count then it is WP:OR, WP:SYN and should be tagged or deleted. Mytwocents 15:55, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Just look here; we could cite both of those studies in that section. -- Cielomobile 17:17, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Okay, let's review. The disputed statement is, "Only a few dissenting scientists specialize in climate science." This statement suggests that the dissenting scientists specialize in fields other than climate scientist (which is rather irrelevant, but we'll not get into that just yet).

Oreskes looked at 928 abstracts (NOT full texts) of articles and concluded based on the abstracts, which often do not summarize the conclusion of the full text, or leave important details out, that there was a consensus among scientists regarding AGW. I am also strongly concerned that this research may have been tainted from the beginning by the author's confirmation bias. But none of that is relevant because this study measures the position of scientific literature, not of scientists themselves. Oreskes does not at all research what field of science the dissenting scientists specialize in. So sorry, Oreskes is out.

As for the Bray and von Storch survey, that one works against you. To say that a "few" scientists dissent is a distortion since the numbers don't lie: for the AGW question, there were 296 agreement responses (1-3), and 234 responses that were either neutral or in disagreement with that theory (and that's disregarding the 20 who marked "don't know" - which they might have meant to say that we as a people don't know the answer). To say that 296 vs 234 reflects even a majority is misleading, as the 62 scientists represent 11% of the sample, which for a relatively small sample like this reflects poor statistical significance. And it's not "a few" who disagree - it's almost half, according to this study. But that doesn't matter either - once again this survey does not detail who gave what responses or what specialty each scientist had. So this doesn't back the disputed sentence up the least bit either. Using these in defense of "consensus" is one thing - but using them to make a statement about the specialties of the scientists who dissent is flat out wrong. --Tjsynkral 23:40, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

I must agree with you as concerns 2003 Bray and von Storch, due to the unreliability of a web-based survey. However, the statement that the Oreskes study measures the position of scientific literature rather than scientists is disingenuous. The scientific literature is an indication of the present state of the science and therefore of the scientists. If one's position is not informed by the science, one is not a scientist. Hal peridol 01:25, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

And another thing is that Tjsynkral analysis on the research is itself OR unless that can be cited from the literature. I know that the study by Oreskes was published in Science. A comment by Peiser was rejected by Science. I don't know about the status of the other study.... Count Iblis 01:43, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

I'm not suggesting that my comments be included in the article in support of the skeptic argument... I'm stating the reason why they are unacceptable as sources to support the statement you are trying to push into the article. --Tjsynkral 02:03, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

I just read that the "the Bray and von Storch survey" was not accepted for publication. So, from the most reliable sources (peer reviewed journals) we can conclude that there is almost no dissent among climate scientists. The disputed sentence is thus backed up adequately. You have to consider unreliable sources (research that that was not accepted for publication) to cast doubt on this. For any given fact you can always find information on the internet that disputes that. From the latest news about the Face on Mars to Crancks who put their articles rejected by Nature about zero point energy. That's why we have to limit ourselves to reliable sources. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Count_Iblis (talk • contribs)

You're an odd one to talk about reliable sources, since your philosophy appears to be no sources. Anyway saying that Bray and von Storch was rejected is not proof that the findings are false, so do not imply that it is. Also, Appeal to ignorance much? The burden of proof is on you. --Tjsynkral 02:06, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

If an article is rejected for publication through the peer review process, then its reliability and veracity is much in doubt, much more even than a self-published article. One would have to demonstrate why the Bray and Von Storch survey should be considered evidence at all. --Skyemoor 13:36, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Not at all. We know what the reliable peer reviewed sources are saying. But sometimes we want to make generalized statements about the research itself, in this case the number of dissenting climate scientists. Now, the fact that one article was not accepted doesn't prove that it is flawed. What it does mean is that you cannot use the findings of that research to cast doubt on other research that is peer reveiewed and thus an undisputed reliable source. It's undisputed because none of the comments criticizing it were published in peer reviewed journals.

My philosphy is not: No sources, but rather that we should be making reasonable edits given all the peer reviewed sources we have. The absence of meta research, i.e. research about research and perhaps also research about research about research must not be used as a pretext to cast doubt about obvious facts. Count Iblis 02:44, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

And by no means are the specialties of dissenting scientists obvious facts. --Tjsynkral 02:49, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

I agree with Tjsynkral that the original edit made by Count Iblis isn't supported by the Oreskes article, since Oreskes doesn't look at the specialties of the submitters (and since her sample size of dissenting scientists would be zero, it's irrelevant). However, I believe the conclusion of the Oreskes article is quite significant and should be included somewhere. I would like to propose that such edit be made when the article is unprotected. Perhaps the Peiser rebuttal should be noted, even though it was rejected by Science,and he apparently retracted his criticism later (apologies if this ground has been covered); this interchange actually strengthens the weight of the Oreskes study, I think. Fwiw, there is some support of Count Iblis's edit here, although it is not concise and seems to only speak of one major group of dissenters, and I don't know the reliability of this source. --MoxRox 14:03, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

That appears to be an opinion article. We're not going to use an opinion article to make a factual statement about all dissenting scientists, are we? --Tjsynkral 15:46, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Can you clarify, which of the articles that I referred to do you consider to be an opinion article? (You may be right, I just want to be sure we are discussing the same thing.) --MoxRox 16:36, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

This. It is an unsigned opinion page. It only discusses the Lavoisier Group, but there are many dissenters outside of the Lavoisier Group, so it cannot support CI's statement. --Tjsynkral 16:47, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Okay, I'm glad I asked. First, I agree that this item is not sufficient to source Count Iblis's edit as currently written. However, I disagree that it is an "unsigned opinion page" - it is a feature in the Science section of the publication, and the summary at the top identifies the author as Melissa Fyfe. That's irrelevant though, because as a source it falls down on the other points you noted. And anyway....

In short, I would suggest that the point about scientific agreement or disagreement be taken out completely, or at least moved below the TOC, under the Causes section. (I don't know why there is so much detail above the TOC in this article anyway, but that's a bigger discussion, that's probably already been beaten to death before I showed up.) The part about which scientists support which position ought to be relegated to the article devoted to that - Scientific opinion on climate change - with an appropriate pointer from the main article. Something like, "While there is broad consensus in the mainstream scientific community that most recent global warming effects are due to anthropogenic causes, some scientists disagree. See Scientific opinion on climate change for details of this debate." (add a few cites of course)

I realize I'm walking into the middle of a raging debate here, but if a fresh perspective helps, there's mine. --MoxRox 19:23, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

What is the ratio, ${\displaystyle climatologists,dissenting/climatologists \over dissenters/people}$? James S. 03:46, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Could you make the nature and intent of your mathematical expression a little vaguer, please? Its ruthless well-posedness leaves me uncomfortable. Raymond Arritt 04:06, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Are there proportionally more or fewer climatologists dissenting than in the population at large? James S. 07:44, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

OK, I see now. I don't know of anyone who has done the exact calculation you describe (it would be more trouble than it's worth), but many commentators have pointed out that the denominator in your fraction is much larger than the numerator. Raymond Arritt 15:58, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

US conspires with China against climate scientists

U.S. negotiators managed to eliminate language in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers Friday that called for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions according to Patricia Romero Lankao, a lead author from NCAR. The original draft read: "However, adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude. Mitigation measures will therefore also be required." But the second sentence does not appear in the final version of the report.

China objected to wording that said "based on observed evidence, there is very high confidence that many natural systems, on all continents and in most oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases." The term "very high confidence" means researchers are at least 90 percent sure of their findings. When China asked that the word "very" be stricken, three scientific authors balked, and the deadlock was broken only by a compromise to delete any reference to confidence levels.

Boo! Hiss! James S. 07:40, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

Edits to consider when unprotected

Cited in case its useful to the article:

"The scientific work reviewed by IPCC scientists includes more than 29,000 pieces of data on observed changes in physical and biological aspects of the natural world. Eighty-nine percent of these, it believes, are consistent with a warming world."

FT2 12:16, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

The 'Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere' section

Someone should cite the percentages at the beginning of the 'Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere' section. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.238.49.228 (talk)

Another straw poll: article subject

Apart from the nutters, it seems that most people accept that the *science* here is essentially correct: the recent tag wars seem to be more about attempts to expand the subject of the article. So, I think its time for another straw poll: what should the article content be? I see two sides: (1) article content roughly as now: essentially the science; minimal politics or finance. (2) expand article to include policitcs, finance, whatever. Comments? William M. Connolley 19:26, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

1. http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/11/2/3/1 Mankind to blame for global warming says IPCC
2. http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/11/2/3/1 Mankind to blame for global warming says IPCC
3. ^ Cite error: The named reference grida7 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
4. http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/11/2/3/1 Mankind to blame for global warming says IPCC
5. consensus statement from national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India
6. consensus statement from Committee on the Science of Climate Change of the National Research Council]
7. consensus statement from the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
8. declaration from the US Climate Change Science Program
9. consensus statement from the American Geophysical Union
10. examination of consensus position from the National Academies of Science
11. consensus statement from the Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Royal Society (UK).
12. A position paper of the Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London.
13. Position Statement on Global Climate Change adopted by the Geological Society of America
14. Australian Medical Association statement on climate change
15. American Chemical Society (unsigned) statement on Global Climate Change
16. http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm
17. Emmanuel, K. (August 2005) "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" Nature 436: 686-688.
18. Thomas R. Knutson, et. al., Journal of Climate, Impact of CO₂-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization, 15 Sept. 2004. Retrieved March 4, 2007.