2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 14:26, 6 June 2024 editSpiffy sperry (talk \| contribs)Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers19,126 edits →top: remove speculative trivia← Previous edit		Revision as of 17:58, 6 June 2024 edit undoElection Bro (talk \| contribs)Extended confirmed users1,579 edits →Polling Next edit →
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			\|± 3.1%
			\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''48%'''
			\|43%
			\|9%
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	\|style="text-align:left;"\|{{Efn-ua\|name=AG\|Poll sponsored by American Greatness}}		\|style="text-align:left;"\|{{Efn-ua\|name=AG\|Poll sponsored by American Greatness}}

Revision as of 17:58, 6 June 2024

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

← 2020

November 5, 2024

2028 →


Nominee	Donald Trump (presumptive)	Joe Biden (presumptive)
Party	Republican	Democratic
Home state	Florida	Delaware
Running mate	TBA	Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina

Federal government

U.S. President
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U.S. Senate
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U.S. House of Representatives
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State executive

Gubernatorial elections
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Lieutenant Governor elections
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Attorney General elections
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Council of State elections
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Secretary of State elections
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State legislature

State Senate elections
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State House elections
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State judiciary

Judicial elections
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Ballot measures

2012: Amendment 1

Mayoral elections

Charlotte mayoral elections
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Cary mayoral elections
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Durham mayoral elections
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Fayetteville mayoral elections
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Greensboro mayoral elections
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Raleigh mayoral elections
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Winston-Salem mayoral elections
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2016 2020

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s, as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election since 2008 by less than a 4% margin each time, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the solitary Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia 32 years earlier. However, Republicans have won every single federal race in North Carolina since Obama's victory. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by the Republican candidate in every presidential election since then, being the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020 even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as either a tossup or leaning towards the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.

Incumbent president Biden is running for reelection to a second term.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures. The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate, and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges. Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.

In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	609,680	87.27%	113
No Preference	88,900	12.73%
Total:	698,580	100.00%	132		132

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	793,978	73.84%	62		62
Nikki Haley	250,838	23.33%	12		12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	14,740	1.37%
No Preference	7,448	0.69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	3,418	0.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	3,166	0.29%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	916	0.09%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	727	0.07%
Total:	1,075,231	100.00%	74		74

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary

The North Carolina Libertarian Primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections	Tilt R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill	Lean R	May 30, 2024
CNalysis	Tilt R	May 23, 2024
CNN	Lean R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
East Carolina University	May 31 – June 3, 2024	1,332 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	43%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	41%	10%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	May 26–27, 2024	1,053 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	43%	6%
Change Research (D)	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	43%	12%
Prime Group	May 9–16, 2024	472 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	42%	9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	41%	11%
High Point University	May 5–9, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.2%	44%	42%	14%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	52%	48%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	41%	8%
Mason-Dixon	April 9–13, 2024	635 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Quinnipiac University	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	48%	46%	6%
High Point University	March 22–30, 2024	829(RV)	± 3.4%	45%	42%	14%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Marist College	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	51%	48%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	699 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
SurveyUSA	March 3–9, 2024	598 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	45%	5%
Cygnal (R)	March 6–7, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	40%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	704 (RV)	± 5.0%	50%	41%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	44%	9%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	45%	5%
Meredith College	January 26–31, 2024	760 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	39%	17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	39%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	40%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	39%	13%
Meredith College	November 1–5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	39%	40%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	43%	38%	20%
Change Research (D)	September 1–5, 2023	914 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	42%	12%
Prime Group	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	54%	46%	–
Prime Group	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	45%	37%	18%
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	43%	40%	18%
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	45%	12%
Differentiators (R)	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	40%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	–	44%	44%	12%
SurveyUSA	September 28 – October 2, 2022	918 (RV)	± 3.9%	43%	45%	12%
Emerson College	September 15–16, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	42%	11%
East Carolina University	September 7–10, 2022	1,020 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	9%
Blueprint Polling (D)	August 4–6, 2022	656 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	39%	17%
PEM Management Corporation (R)	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	48%	41%	11%
East Carolina University	May 19–20, 2022	635 (RV)	± 4.5%	46%	37%	16%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
North Star Opinion Research (R)	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	32%	9%	3%	2%	10%
Prime Group	May 9–16, 2024	472 (RV)	–	45%	42%	11%	2%	1%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	38%	7%	1%	1%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	36%	8%	3%	1%	8%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	6%	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	5%	1%	0%	8%
Quinnipiac University	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	38%	12%	3%	3%	3%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	34%	10%	2%	1%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	699 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	39%	7%	1%	0%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	704 (RV)	± 5.0%	45%	35%	9%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	5%	1%	1%	10%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	8%	1%	2%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	32%	9%	1%	1%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	34%	8%	1%	1%	11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research (D)	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	41%	38%	11%	10%
Cygnal (R)	May 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	38%	9%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 2–4, 2024	700 (LV)	–	44%	37%	7%	12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)	April 25–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	40%	35%	11%	14%
Meredith College	April 11–17, 2024	711 (LV)	± 3.5%	41%	39%	9%	11%
Cygnal (R)	April 7–8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	39%	7%	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	March 14–17, 2024	642 (LV)	–	43%	39%	8%	10%
Marist College	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	43%	11%	–
North Star Opinion Research	January 30 – February 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	32%	16%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	1,220 (LV)	–	37%	33%	11%	19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	44%	35%	8%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	41%	38%	9%	14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	33%	9%	2%	14%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	50%	40%	10%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	41%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	34%	17%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	41%	13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	31%	33%	19%	2%	2%	13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	36%	33%	12%	18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	40%	13%
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	41%	15%
Differentiators (R)	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	44%	7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	38%	34%	12%	4%	12%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Pence Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	41%	20%

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Someone else" with 17%
No Labels candidate
Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Charles Ballay (L) with 2%

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
^ Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
^ Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

References

Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
"270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
Kraemer, Brianna (April 3, 2024). "RFK Jr. is officially joining the NC ballot". Carolina Journal. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
"2024 Fact Sheet - Running for President" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
^ "Biden primary foe Phillips will challenge states where he missed ballot | Semafor". www.semafor.com. December 7, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
"North Carolina's 2024 presidential primary candidates approved". Carolina Journal -. December 26, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
"Dean Phillips, a Democrat running for president, says North Carolina is wrong to keep him off ballot". WUNC. December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
"Our Campaigns - NC US President - D Primary Race - May 08, 2012".
"03/05/2024 OFFICIAL PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
"Presidential and Congressional Primaries: North Carolina Results 2024". CNN. April 30, 2024. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
News Staff, FOX Carolina. "Here are the 10 Libertarian candidates in the 2024 NC Presidential Primary". FOX News.
"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
"Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
"2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
"2024 Presidential Forecast". Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
"2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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v t e State and district results of the 2024 United States presidential election
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Revision as of 14:26, 6 June 2024 editSpiffy sperry (talk \| contribs)Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers19,126 edits →top: remove speculative trivia← Previous edit		Revision as of 17:58, 6 June 2024 edit undoElection Bro (talk \| contribs)Extended confirmed users1,579 edits →Polling Next edit →
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	! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold\|Democratic}}		! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br/>Biden<br/>{{nobold\|Democratic}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br/>Undecided		! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br/>Undecided
			\|-
			\|style="text-align:left;"\|
			\| data-sort-value="2024-06-06" \|May 31 – June 3, 2024
			\|1,332 (LV)
			\|± 3.1%
			\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''48%'''
			\|43%
			\|9%
	\|-		\|-
	\|style="text-align:left;"\|{{Efn-ua\|name=AG\|Poll sponsored by American Greatness}}		\|style="text-align:left;"\|{{Efn-ua\|name=AG\|Poll sponsored by American Greatness}}

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