2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina: Difference between revisions

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	\|-		\|-
	\|]<ref></ref>		\|]<ref></ref>
	\|August 22–September 3, 2024		\|August 22–September 5, 2024
	\|September 3, 2024		\|September 5, 2024
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''48.0%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''48.0%'''
	\|47.6%		\|47.5%
	\|4.4%		\|4.5%
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.4%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.5%'''
	\|-		\|-
	\|]<ref></ref>		\|]<ref></ref>
	\|through September 3, 2024		\|through September 5, 2024
	\|September 3, 2024		\|September 5, 2024
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''46.2%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''46.3%'''
	\|45.8%		\|45.7%
	\|8.0%		\|8.0%
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.4%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.6%'''
	\|-		\|-
	\|]<ref></ref>		\|]<ref></ref>
	\|through September 3, 2024		\|through September 5, 2024
	\|September 3, 2024		\|September 5, 2024
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''48.5%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''48.4%'''
	\|48.2%		\|48.0%
	\|3.3%		\|3.6%
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.3%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.4%'''
	\|-		\|-
	\|]/]<ref></ref>		\|]/]<ref></ref>
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	\| colspan="3" \|'''Average'''		\| colspan="3" \|'''Average'''
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''47.35%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''47.35%'''
	\|47.05%		\|47.0%
	\|5.6%		\|5.65%
	\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.3%'''		\|{{party shading/Republican}}\|'''Trump +0.35%'''
	\|}		\|}

Revision as of 14:08, 5 September 2024

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

← 2020

November 5, 2024

2028 →


Nominee	Donald Trump	Kamala Harris
Party	Republican	Democratic
Home state	Florida	California
Running mate	JD Vance	Tim Walz

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina

Federal government

U.S. President
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U.S. Senate
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U.S. House of Representatives
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State executive

Gubernatorial elections
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Lieutenant Governor elections
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Attorney General elections
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
Council of State elections
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
Secretary of State elections
1940 1944 2024

State legislature

State Senate elections
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State House elections
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

State judiciary

Judicial elections
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Ballot measures

2012: Amendment 1

Mayoral elections

Charlotte mayoral elections
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Cary mayoral elections
2011 2015 2019 2023
Durham mayoral elections
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Fayetteville mayoral elections
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Greensboro mayoral elections
2011 2013 2015 2017 2022
Raleigh mayoral elections
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2022 2024
Winston-Salem mayoral elections
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2016 2020

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four presidential elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles.

It was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election, but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris. Throughout 2024, Trump won every poll in North Carolina against Biden, but his lead in the state has diminished since Harris was nominated to lead the Democratic ticket, with most polls within the margin of error in either direction.

Voting rule changes

Voters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted. There will also be more partisan poll-watchers. The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression. Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures. The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate, and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges. Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.

In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	609,680	87.27%	113
No Preference	88,900	12.73%
Total:	698,580	100.00%	132		132

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	793,978	73.84%	62		62
Nikki Haley	250,838	23.33%	12		12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	14,740	1.37%
No Preference	7,448	0.69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	3,418	0.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	3,166	0.29%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	916	0.09%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	727	0.07%
Total:	1,075,231	100.00%	74		74

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary

The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.

North Carolina Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
None of the Above	2,058	40.5%
Chase Oliver	676	13.3%
Jacob Hornberger	357	7.0%
Joshua Smith	354	7.0%
Michael Rectenwald	195	3.8%
Charles Ballay	183	3.6%
Lars Mapstead	176	3.5%
Mike ter Maat	137	2.7%
Other	946	18.7%
Total:	5,082	100.0%
Source:

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	August 27, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Tossup	August 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill	Tossup	August 26, 2024
CNN	Tossup	August 27, 2024
The Economist	Tossup	August 23, 2024
538	Tossup	August 27, 2024
RCP	Tossup	August 27, 2024
CNalysis	Tilt R	August 27, 2024
Inside Elections	Tossup	August 29, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Undecided	Margin
RealClearPolitics	August 4 – August 31, 2024	August 31, 2024	47.9%	47.2%	4.9%	Trump +0.7%
270ToWin	August 22–September 5, 2024	September 5, 2024	48.0%	47.5%	4.5%	Trump +0.5%
538	through September 5, 2024	September 5, 2024	46.3%	45.7%	8.0%	Trump +0.6%
Silver Bulletin	through September 5, 2024	September 5, 2024	48.4%	48.0%	3.6%	Trump +0.4%
The Hill/DDHQ	through September 3, 2024	September 3, 2024	48.3%	48.3%	3.4%	Tie
RacetotheWH	through August 31, 2024	August 31, 2024	48.2%	48.2%	3.6%	Tie
Average			47.35%	47.0%	5.65%	Trump +0.35%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)	August 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	48%	3%
ActiVote	August 6–31, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	50%	–
Emerson College	August 25–28, 2024	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	48%	3%
Emerson College	August 25–28, 2024	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	49%	1%
SoCal Strategies (R)	August 26–27, 2024	612 (LV)	–	50%	46%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	645 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	49%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	49%	4%
Fox News	August 23–26, 2024	999 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	49%	1%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign.
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
High Point University/SurveyUSA	August 19–21, 2024	1,053 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	46%	9%
High Point University/SurveyUSA	August 19–21, 2024	941 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	6%
Spry Strategies (R)	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	6%
	August 19, 2024	Democratic National Convention begins
Focaldata	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	50%	–
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (RV)	± 4.2%	46%	49%	5%
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	49%	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)	August 6–8, 2024	1,082 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	45%	6%
Navigator Research (D)	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	47%	48%	5%
	August 6, 2024	Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 24–28, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	6%
	July 21, 2024	Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
	July 15–19, 2024	Republican National Convention
	July 13, 2024	Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	50%	40%	10%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	41%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
East Carolina University	August 26–28, 2024	920 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	0%	0%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 25–28, 2024	1,071 (LV)	–	45%	44%	–	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	48%	–	1%	2%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	645 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	48%	–	1%	2%	1%
Fox News	August 23–26, 2024	999 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	2%	1%	1%	1%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	3%	–	1%	–	4%
Focaldata	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	47%	5%	–	1%	0%	1%
		702 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	47%	6%	–	1%	0%	2%
		702 (A)	± 3.7%	43%	47%	7%	–	1%	0%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 12–15, 2024	601 (LV)	–	47%	44%	2%	–	0%	1%	6%
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	45%	5%	0%	2%	1%	4%
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (LV)	± 4.2%	44%	46%	4%	0%	1%	1%	4%
YouGov Blue (D)	August 5–9, 2024	802 (RV)	± 3.9%	46%	46%	2%	0%	0%	0%	5%
Navigator Research (D)	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	3%	0%	1%	0%	4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	44%	46%	4%	0%	1%	–	5%
Cygnal (R)	August 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	44%	4%	–	0%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 31–August 3, 2024	714 (LV)	–	44%	41%	4%	–	0%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 24–28, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	44%	5%	–	0%	4%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 22–24, 2024	586 (LV)	–	46%	43%	4%	–	0%	0%	7%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	48%	44%	2%	2%	4%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	50%	46%	4%
Emerson College	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	41%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 1–5, 2024	696 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	43%	11%
Spry Strategies (R)	June 7–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	44%	8%
East Carolina University	May 31 – June 3, 2024	1,332 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	43%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	41%	10%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	May 26–27, 2024	1,053 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	43%	6%
Change Research (D)	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	43%	12%
Prime Group	May 9–16, 2024	472 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	42%	9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	41%	11%
High Point University	May 5–9, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.2%	44%	42%	14%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	42%	11%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	52%	48%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	41%	8%
Mason-Dixon	April 9–13, 2024	635 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Quinnipiac University	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	48%	46%	6%
High Point University	March 22–30, 2024	829(RV)	± 3.4%	45%	42%	14%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Marist College	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	51%	48%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	699 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
SurveyUSA	March 3–9, 2024	598 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	45%	5%
Cygnal (R)	March 6–7, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	40%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	704 (RV)	± 5.0%	50%	41%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	44%	9%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	45%	5%
Meredith College	January 26–31, 2024	760 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	39%	17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	39%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	40%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	39%	13%
Meredith College	November 1–5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	39%	40%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	43%	38%	20%
Change Research (D)	September 1–5, 2023	914 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	42%	12%
Prime Group	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	54%	46%	–
Prime Group	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	45%	37%	18%
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	43%	40%	18%
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	45%	12%
Differentiators (R)	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	40%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	–	44%	44%	12%
SurveyUSA	September 28 – October 2, 2022	918 (RV)	± 3.9%	43%	45%	12%
Emerson College	September 15–16, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	42%	11%
East Carolina University	September 7–10, 2022	1,020 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	9%
Blueprint Polling (D)	August 4–6, 2022	656 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	39%	17%
PEM Management Corporation (R)	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	48%	41%	11%
East Carolina University	May 19–20, 2022	635 (RV)	± 4.5%	46%	37%	16%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	48%	42%	2%	–	2%	6%
Emerson College	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	38%	6%	1%	1%	7%
YouGov	July 4–12, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	40%	4%	0%	1%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 1–5, 2024	696 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	40%	7%	1%	1%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	32%	9%	3%	2%	10%
Prime Group	May 9–16, 2024	472 (RV)	–	45%	42%	11%	2%	1%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	38%	7%	1%	1%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	36%	8%	3%	1%	8%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	6%	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	5%	1%	0%	8%
Quinnipiac University	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	38%	12%	3%	3%	3%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	34%	10%	2%	1%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	699 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	39%	7%	1%	0%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	704 (RV)	± 5.0%	45%	35%	9%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	5%	1%	1%	10%
East Carolina University	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	44%	2%	1%	1%	5%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	8%	1%	2%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	32%	9%	1%	1%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	34%	8%	1%	1%	11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)	June 7–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	37%	8%	10%
Change Research (D)	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	41%	38%	11%	10%
Cygnal (R)	May 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	38%	9%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 2–4, 2024	700 (LV)	–	44%	37%	7%	12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)	April 25–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	40%	35%	11%	14%
Meredith College	April 11–17, 2024	711 (LV)	± 3.5%	41%	39%	9%	11%
Cygnal (R)	April 7–8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	39%	7%	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	March 14–17, 2024	642 (LV)	–	43%	39%	8%	10%
Marist College	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	43%	11%	–
North Star Opinion Research (R)	January 30 – February 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	32%	16%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	1,220 (LV)	–	37%	33%	11%	19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	44%	35%	8%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	41%	38%	9%	14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	33%	9%	2%	14%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Roy Cooper Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	45%	41%	3%	2%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	34%	17%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	41%	13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
East Carolina University	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (LV)	± 3.3%	32%	40%	10%	2%	0%	16%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	31%	33%	19%	2%	2%	13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	36%	33%	12%	18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	40%	13%
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	41%	15%
Differentiators (R)	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	44%	7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	38%	34%	12%	4%	12%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Pence Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	41%	20%

Notes

464 votes (9.1%) for David (TrimeTaveler) Dunlap, 320 votes (6.3%) for Beau Lindsey, 162 votes (3.2%) for Josh "Toad" Anderson.
Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Another candidate" with 2%
^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
"Someone else" with 1%
"Other" with 1%
"Other" with 1 %
"Someone else" with 17%
No Labels candidate
Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Charles Ballay (L) with 2%

Partisan clients

Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
^ Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
^ Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
^ Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
^ Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
^ Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
^ Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

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v t e (2023 ←) 2024 United States elections (→ 2025)
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v t e State and district results of the 2024 United States presidential election
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