2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina: Difference between revisions

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	\|-		\|-
	\|		\|
	\|through September 15, 2024		\|through September 17, 2024
	\|September 16, 2024		\|September 17, 2024
	\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''47.9%'''		\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''47.8%'''
	\|47.6%		\|47.6%
	\|4.5%		\|4.6%
	\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''Trump +0.3%'''		\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''Trump +0.2%'''
	\|-		\|-
	\|		\|
	\|through September 16, 2024		\|through September 18, 2024
	\|September 16, 2024		\|September 18, 2024
	\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''47.6%'''		\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''47.4%'''
	\|47.1%		\|47.2%
	\|5.3%		\|5.4%
	\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''Trump +0.5%'''		\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''Trump +0.2%'''
	\|-		\|-
	\| colspan="3" \|'''Average'''		\| colspan="3" \|'''Average'''
	\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''47.57%'''		\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''47.7%'''
	\|47.75%		\|47.65%
	\|4.68%		\|4.65%
	\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''Trump +0.18%'''		\| {{party shading/Republican}} \|'''Trump +0.05%'''
	\|}		\|}

Revision as of 10:22, 18 September 2024

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

← 2020

November 5, 2024

2028 →


Nominee	Donald Trump	Kamala Harris
Party	Republican	Democratic
Home state	Florida	California
Running mate	JD Vance	Tim Walz

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina

Federal government

U.S. President
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U.S. Senate
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State executive

Gubernatorial elections
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Lieutenant Governor elections
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Attorney General elections
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Council of State elections
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Secretary of State elections
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State legislature

State Senate elections
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State House elections
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State judiciary

Judicial elections
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Ballot measures

2012: Amendment 1

Mayoral elections

Charlotte mayoral elections
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Cary mayoral elections
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Durham mayoral elections
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Fayetteville mayoral elections
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Greensboro mayoral elections
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Raleigh mayoral elections
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Winston-Salem mayoral elections
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The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four presidential elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles.

It was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election, but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris. Throughout 2024, Trump won every poll in North Carolina against Biden, but his lead in the state has diminished since Harris was nominated to lead the Democratic ticket, with most polls within the margin of error in either direction.

Events and rule changes

Voters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted. There will also be more partisan poll-watchers. The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression. Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was granted the status of presidential candidate in July 2024 for North Carolina after state authorities recognised the political party he founded, 'We the People', which allowed Kennedy to qualify using 13,757 signatures, instead of the 82,542 signatures required for a candidate with no party. The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that Kennedy was improperly using his party to avoid higher qualification requirements, but this lawsuit against Kennedy was unsuccessful. On August 27, Kennedy asked state authorities to remove him as a presidential candidate in North Carolina; on August 28, the We the People party officially made the same request to state authorities; both requests were initially denied due to ballots already being printed and upcoming deadlines, with North Carolina law mandating that absentee ballots should be mailed by authorities from September 6.

Kennedy responded by launching a lawsuit demanding to be removed as a presidential candidate in North Carolina, with Kennedy previously saying that "by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats", while Kennedy remained as a presidential candidate in non-battleground states and indicated that his lawsuit to become a presidential candidate in New York would continue. While Wake County Superior Court ruled against Kennedy, he appealed and the North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled for Kennedy on September 6, ordering for authorities to reprint ballots without Kennedy as a candidate. The North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the Court of Appeals' decision on September 9, so authorities went to reprint the ballots, which delayed the mailing date from the originally stipulated September 6 date to become September 20 for military and overseas voters and September 24 for other voters.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures. The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate, and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges. Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.

In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	609,680	87.27%	113
No Preference	88,900	12.73%
Total:	698,580	100.00%	132		132

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	793,978	73.84%	62		62
Nikki Haley	250,838	23.33%	12		12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	14,740	1.37%
No Preference	7,448	0.69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	3,418	0.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	3,166	0.29%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	916	0.09%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	727	0.07%
Total:	1,075,231	100.00%	74		74

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary

The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.

North Carolina Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
None of the Above	2,058	40.5%
Chase Oliver	676	13.3%
Jacob Hornberger	357	7.0%
Joshua Smith	354	7.0%
Michael Rectenwald	195	3.8%
Charles Ballay	183	3.6%
Lars Mapstead	176	3.5%
Mike ter Maat	137	2.7%
Other	946	18.7%
Total:	5,082	100.0%
Source:

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	August 27, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Tossup	August 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill	Tossup	September 12, 2024
CNN	Tossup	August 27, 2024
The Economist	Tossup	September 10, 2024
538	Tossup	August 27, 2024
CNalysis	Tossup	September 15, 2024
Inside Elections	Tossup	August 29, 2024
RCP	Tossup	August 27, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Undecided	Margin
RealClearPolitics	August 23 – September 13, 2024	September 16, 2024	48.3%	47.9%	3.8%	Trump +0.4%
270ToWin	September 9–13, 2024	September 16, 2024	47.1%	47.3%	5.6%	Harris +0.2%
RacetotheWH	through September 14, 2024	September 16, 2024	47.4%	47.4%	5.2%	Tie
The Hill/DDHQ	through September 13, 2024	September 16, 2024	48.2%	48.1%	3.7%	Trump +0.1%
Silver Bulletin	through September 17, 2024	September 17, 2024	47.8%	47.6%	4.6%	Trump +0.2%
538	through September 18, 2024	September 18, 2024	47.4%	47.2%	5.4%	Trump +0.2%
Average			47.7%	47.65%	4.65%	Trump +0.05%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
TIPP Insights	September 11–13, 2024	973 (LV)	± 3.2%	49%	46%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)	September 11–12, 2024	1,094 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	46%	6%
Quantus Polls and News (R)	September 11–12, 2024	815 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	47%	5%
Quantus Polls and News (R)	September 11–12, 2024	815 (LV)	± 3.4%	50%	48%	2%
Quinnipiac University	September 4–8, 2024	940 (LV)	± 3.2%	47%	50%	3%
Morning Consult	August 30 – September 8, 2024	1,369 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
SurveyUSA	September 4–7, 2024	900 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	49%	5%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	September 5–6, 2024	692 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	46%	7%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	September 5–6, 2024	619 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	47%	5%
Patriot Polling	September 1–3, 2024	804 (RV)	–	50%	48%	2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	August 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	48%	3%
ActiVote	August 6–31, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	50%	–
Emerson College	August 25–28, 2024	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	48%	3%
Emerson College	August 25–28, 2024	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	49%	1%
SoCal Strategies (R)	August 26–27, 2024	612 (LV)	–	50%	46%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	645 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	49%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	49%	4%
Fox News	August 23–26, 2024	999 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	49%	1%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
High Point University/SurveyUSA	August 19–21, 2024	1,053 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	46%	9%
High Point University/SurveyUSA	August 19–21, 2024	941 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	6%
Spry Strategies (R)	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	6%
	August 19, 2024	Democratic National Convention begins
Focaldata	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	50%	–
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (RV)	± 4.2%	46%	49%	5%
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	49%	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)	August 6–8, 2024	1,082 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	45%	6%
Navigator Research (D)	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	47%	48%	5%
	August 6, 2024	Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 24–28, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	6%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
	July 15–19, 2024	Republican National Convention
	July 13, 2024	Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	50%	40%	10%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	41%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Cornel West Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Others/ Undecided	Margin
Race to the WH	through September 9, 2024	September 15, 2024	46.7%	46.3%	0.7%	0.6%	—	5.7%	Harris +0.4%
RealClearPolling	August 23 – September 13, 2024	September 13, 2024	47.2%	47.4%	0.8%	1.5%	0.8%	2.3%	Trump +0.2%
270toWin	through September 10, 2024	September 10, 2024	47.2%	46.6%	0.6%	1.0%	0.6%	4.0%	Harris +0.6%
Average			47.0%	46.8%	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	3.8%	Harris +0.2%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	September 6–9, 2024	495 (LV)	–	44%	45%	–	0%	0%	11%
Quinnipiac University	September 4–8, 2024	940 (LV)	± 3.2%	46%	49%	0%	1%	0%	4%
YouGov	August 23 – September 3, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	46%	0%	1%	–	6%
East Carolina University	August 26–28, 2024	920 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	0%	0%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 25–28, 2024	1,071 (LV)	–	45%	44%	–	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	48%	–	1%	2%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	August 23–26, 2024	645 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	48%	–	1%	2%	1%
Fox News	August 23–26, 2024	999 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	2%	1%	1%	1%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	3%	–	1%	–	4%
Focaldata	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	47%	5%	–	1%	0%	1%
		702 (RV)		44%	47%	6%	–	1%	0%	2%
		702 (A)		43%	47%	7%	–	1%	0%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 12–15, 2024	601 (LV)	–	47%	44%	2%	–	0%	1%	6%
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	45%	5%	0%	2%	1%	4%
New York Times/Siena College	August 9–14, 2024	655 (LV)	± 4.2%	44%	46%	4%	0%	1%	1%	4%
YouGov Blue (D)	August 5–9, 2024	802 (RV)	± 3.9%	46%	46%	2%	0%	0%	0%	5%
Navigator Research (D)	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	3%	0%	1%	0%	4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	44%	46%	4%	0%	1%	–	5%
Cygnal (R)	August 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	44%	4%	–	0%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 31 – August 3, 2024	714 (LV)	–	44%	41%	4%	–	0%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 24–28, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	44%	5%	–	0%	4%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 22–24, 2024	586 (LV)	–	46%	43%	4%	–	0%	0%	7%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	48%	44%	2%	2%	4%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Quantus Polls and News	September 11–12, 2024	815 (LV)	± 3.4%	49%	42%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	50%	46%	4%
Emerson College	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	41%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 1–5, 2024	696 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	43%	11%
Spry Strategies (R)	June 7–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	44%	8%
East Carolina University	May 31 – June 3, 2024	1,332 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	43%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	41%	10%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	May 26–27, 2024	1,053 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	43%	6%
Change Research (D)	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	43%	12%
Prime Group	May 9–16, 2024	472 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	42%	9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	41%	11%
High Point University	May 5–9, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.2%	44%	42%	14%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	42%	11%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	52%	48%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	41%	8%
Mason-Dixon	April 9–13, 2024	635 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Quinnipiac University	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	48%	46%	6%
High Point University	March 22–30, 2024	829(RV)	± 3.4%	45%	42%	14%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Marist College	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	51%	48%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	699 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
SurveyUSA	March 3–9, 2024	598 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	45%	5%
Cygnal (R)	March 6–7, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	40%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	704 (RV)	± 5.0%	50%	41%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	44%	9%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	45%	5%
Meredith College	January 26–31, 2024	760 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	39%	17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	39%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	40%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	39%	13%
Meredith College	November 1–5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	39%	40%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	43%	38%	20%
Change Research (D)	September 1–5, 2023	914 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	42%	12%
Prime Group	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	54%	46%	–
Prime Group	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	45%	37%	18%
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	43%	40%	18%
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	45%	12%
Differentiators (R)	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	40%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	–	44%	44%	12%
SurveyUSA	September 28 – October 2, 2022	918 (RV)	± 3.9%	43%	45%	12%
Emerson College	September 15–16, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	42%	11%
East Carolina University	September 7–10, 2022	1,020 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	9%
Blueprint Polling (D)	August 4–6, 2022	656 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	39%	17%
PEM Management Corporation (R)	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	48%	41%	11%
East Carolina University	May 19–20, 2022	635 (RV)	± 4.5%	46%	37%	16%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	48%	42%	2%	–	2%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 16–18, 2024	461 (LV)	–	45%	39%	5%	–	1%	10%
Emerson College	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	38%	6%	1%	1%	7%
YouGov	July 4–12, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	40%	4%	0%	1%	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 8–10, 2024	420 (LV)	–	44%	42%	4%	–	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	July 1–5, 2024	696 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	40%	7%	1%	1%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	June 8–11, 2024	534 (LV)	–	43%	40%	7%	–	1%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)	May 29 – June 2, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	32%	9%	3%	2%	10%
Prime Group	May 9–16, 2024	472 (RV)	–	45%	42%	11%	2%	1%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	38%	7%	1%	1%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	36%	8%	3%	1%	8%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	6%	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	5%	1%	0%	8%
Quinnipiac University	April 4–8, 2024	1,401 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	38%	12%	3%	3%	3%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	34%	10%	2%	1%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	699 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	39%	7%	1%	0%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	704 (RV)	± 5.0%	45%	35%	9%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	5%	1%	1%	10%
East Carolina University	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	44%	2%	1%	1%	5%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	37%	8%	1%	2%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	32%	9%	1%	1%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	34%	8%	1%	1%	11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)	June 7–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	37%	8%	10%
Change Research (D)	May 13–18, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.8%	41%	38%	11%	10%
Cygnal (R)	May 4–5, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	38%	9%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 2–4, 2024	700 (LV)	–	44%	37%	7%	12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)	April 25–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	40%	35%	11%	14%
Meredith College	April 11–17, 2024	711 (LV)	± 3.5%	41%	39%	9%	11%
Cygnal (R)	April 7–8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	39%	7%	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	March 14–17, 2024	642 (LV)	–	43%	39%	8%	10%
Marist College	March 11–14, 2024	1,197 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	43%	11%	–
North Star Opinion Research (R)	January 30 – February 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	32%	16%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	1,220 (LV)	–	37%	33%	11%	19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	44%	35%	8%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	41%	38%	9%	14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	33%	9%	2%	14%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Roy Cooper Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 17–20, 2024	573 (RV)	± 4.1%	45%	41%	3%	2%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	34%	17%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	41%	13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
East Carolina University	February 9–12, 2024	1,207 (LV)	± 3.3%	32%	40%	10%	2%	0%	16%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,099 (RV)	± 3.0%	31%	33%	19%	2%	2%	13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	36%	33%	12%	18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	40%	13%
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	41%	15%
Differentiators (R)	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	44%	7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	38%	34%	12%	4%	12%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Pence Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	41%	20%

Notes

464 votes (9.1%) for David (TrimeTaveler) Dunlap, 320 votes (6.3%) for Beau Lindsey, 162 votes (3.2%) for Josh "Toad" Anderson.
Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Other" with 2%
^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
"Would not vote" with 2%
"Someone else" with 2%
"Another candidate" with 3%
^ "Another candidate" with 2%
^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
^ "Someone else" with 1%
^ "Other" with 1%
Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
"Someone else" with 17%
No Labels candidate
^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Charles Ballay (L) with 2%

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
^ Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
^ Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
^ Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
^ Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
^ Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
^ Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

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v t e (2023 ←) 2024 United States elections (→ 2025)
U.S. President	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Straw polls Guam Puerto Rico
U.S. Senate	Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nebraska (special) Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
U.S. House (election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California 16th 20th sp 30th 45th 47th Colorado 4th sp Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland 6th Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey 10th sp New Mexico New York 3rd sp 26th sp North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio 6th sp Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas 18th sp Utah Vermont Virginia U.S. Virgin Islands Washington West Virginia Wisconsin 8th sp Wyoming
Governors	American Samoa Delaware Lt. Gov Indiana Missouri Lt. Gov Montana New Hampshire North Carolina Lt. Gov North Dakota Puerto Rico Utah Vermont Lt. Gov Washington Lt. Gov West Virginia
Attorneys general	Indiana Missouri Montana North Carolina Oregon Pennsylvania Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Secretaries of state	Missouri Montana North Carolina Oregon Vermont Washington West Virginia
State treasurers	Arkansas (special) Missouri North Carolina North Dakota Oregon Pennsylvania Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Judicial	Alabama Supreme Court Civil Appeals Criminal Appeals Arkansas Arizona Georgia Guam Kentucky Michigan Minnesota North Carolina Ohio Oklahoma Tennessee Texas Washington West Virginia Wyoming
Other statewide elections	Alabama Board of Education Public Service Commission Arizona Corporation Commission Delaware Insurance Commissioner Georgia Judicial Montana Auditor Superintendent New Hampshire Executive Council North Carolina Council of State North Dakota Auditor Insurance Commissioner Superintendent Public Service Commissioner Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Pennsylvania Auditor General Texas Railroad Commissioner Utah Auditor Vermont Auditor Washington Auditor Land Commissioner Insurance Commissioner Superintendent West Virginia Auditor Agriculture Commissioner
State legislative	Alaska House Senate Arizona House Senate Arkansas House Senate California Assembly Senate Colorado House Senate Connecticut House Senate Delaware House Senate Florida House Senate Georgia House Senate Hawaii House Senate Idaho House Senate Illinois House Senate Indiana House Senate Iowa House Senate Kansas House Senate Kentucky House Senate Maine House Senate Massachusetts House Senate Michigan House Minnesota House Missouri House Senate Montana House Senate Nebraska Nevada Assembly Senate New Hampshire House Senate New Mexico House Senate New York Assembly Senate North Carolina House Senate North Dakota House Senate Ohio House Senate Oklahoma House Senate Oregon House Senate Pennsylvania House Senate Puerto Rico House Senate Rhode Island House Senate South Carolina House Senate South Dakota House Senate Tennessee House Senate Texas House Senate Utah House Senate Vermont House Senate Washington House Senate West Virginia House Senate Wisconsin Assembly Senate Wyoming House Senate Special elections
Mayors	Alexandria, VA Anchorage, AK Austin, TX Bakersfield, CA Baltimore, MD Baton Rouge, LA Bridgeport, CT Burlington, VT Cheyenne, WY El Paso, TX Fayetteville, AR Fort Lauderdale, FL Fresno, CA Grand Rapids, MI Honolulu, HI Huntington, WV Huntsville, AL Irvine, CA Las Vegas, NV Lubbock, TX Mesa, AZ Miami-Dade County, FL Milwaukee, WI Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR Pueblo, CO Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA Salt Lake County, UT San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Stockton, CA Tulsa, OK Virginia Beach, VA Wilmington, DE
Local	Alameda County, CA (recall) Chicago, IL Lee County, AL Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles County, CA Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors New Castle County, DE Multnomah County, OR Orange County, CA Portland, OR City Auditor City Council San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA Board of Supervisors District Attorney San Mateo County, CA Tulsa, OK Washington, D.C.
States and territories	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Washington, D.C. West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Ballot measures	Alabama Amendment 1 Alaska Ballot Measure 2 Arizona Proposition 139 California Proposition 1 Proposition 2 Proposition 3 Proposition 4 Proposition 5 Proposition 6 Proposition 32 Proposition 33 Proposition 34 Proposition 35 Proposition 36 Colorado Amendment 79 Amendment 80 Amendment I Amendment J Proposition 127 Proposition 128 Proposition 129 Proposition 131 District of Columbia Initiative 83 Florida Amendment 3 Amendment 4 Hawaii Amendment 1 Idaho open primary initiative Kentucky Amendment 2 Maine Question 5 Maryland Question 1 Missouri Amendment 3 Montana Initiative 128 Nebraska Initiative 434 Initiative 439 Nevada Question 6 New York Proposal 1 Ohio Issue 1 Oregon Measure 115 Measure 116 Measure 117 Measure 118 Measure 119 Puerto Rico Status South Dakota Amendment E Amendment G Amendment H Wyoming Amendment A

v t e State and district results of the 2024 United States presidential election
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Straw polls Guam Puerto Rico

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