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Climate Migration

Climate migration is the displacement of people both internally within countries or internationally due to climate-related disasters, which include both rapid and slow onset events. Slow onset events describe natural disasters that are exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and occur over several years or decades. Rapid onset events have a distinct beginning and end, occurring in a matter of days. The number of climate migrants displaced by natural disasters globally increased 41 percent from 2008 to 2022, with some studies predicting that up to 1.2 billion people could be displaced by the year 2050. Concerns over universal water availability and quality have been raised, as both are impacted by rising temperatures. These impacts could lead to the rapid spread of diseases and food shortages, detrimentally impacting many people's lives. For the reasons thus mentioned, groups such as the The International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law School have set their focuses on the intersection of climate change and human rights, in attempts to discern a framework to prove when the right to clean water has been violated in international law.

Changing water patterns

The water cycle

The water cycle is an important system that moves the water on Earth around, cycling it continuously between the atmosphere, rivers, oceans, lakes, and glaciers, and groundwater supplies. This pattern is crucial aspect of how the Earth systems work, contributing weather patterns as we know them. However, climate warming is causing the water cycle to speed up, or intensify, a process known as water cycle intensification that contributes to more frequent and intense weather events, changing sea levels, and more extreme temperatures, facilitating the need for more climate migration and forcing many out of their homes. It is highly likely that global warming is increasing the average amount of precipitation and evaporation each year, allowing more moisture to enter into weather systems, in turn driving the mean wetness of wet seasons and events to increase. Continuing an increased warming over land as opposed to the ocean has led to increases the severity of droughts.

Trends

A 2004 analysis of water runoff found that it fluctuations in water runoff correlated with increases of carbon dioxide, leading to what the authors of the study described as the first time the link between the intensification of the water cycle and global warming has been shown by experimental-based evidence. A study conducted in 2000 found that all the places with long-term records in the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, with samples representing a wide variety of geographies, were trending upwards in their soil moisture. Some other variables that have been explored pertaining to the intensification of the water cycle include precipitation, which is trending upwards at both regional and global scales in the 20th century, actual evapotranspiration, which was found to be increasing on a regional scale in the latter half of the 20th century, floods, which were found to have not changed or to be increasing on a regional scale in the 20th century, and droughts, which were found to be increasing on a regional scale in the latter half of the 20th century. Looking to the future, increased amounts of heavy precipitation are predicted, and, while flood frequency cannot conclusively be predicted, increased soil moisture is expected to increase the severity of flooding events.

Effects on migration

Analysis by the World Bank Group of data representing 64 countries between 1960 and 2015 found that a lack of water was a significant driver of increasing global migration, and that dry rainfall shocks (periods of time with precipitation levels significantly below average) are expected to have the most significant impact on migration of water related events.

Who is most affected (SIDS + LDCs, women and children)

Several groups of people are disproportionately impacted by climate change and displacement globally. This includes those living in the Global South and small island developing states (SIDS), which are increasingly the most impacted by climate change despite having contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) historically. Climate migration also disproportionately affects women, as many remain in dangerous environments to assume household responsibilities whilst men seek more prosperous livelihoods elsewhere. Another result of climate migration is the deepening of gender divides, as women are more likely to face discrimination and abuse, socioeconomic inequality, face lack of information and resources, and have the least capacity to respond to climate disasters. Children, especially older girls, are also extremely vulnerable to climate migration, as many have to sacrifice their education to take on more familial roles at home. They may also be impacted by torrential rains or floods which can result in school absences, or be separated from their families and forced to live in unstable living arrangements as a result.

Human Rights Law

((((((((((((In this section I will discuss what human rights law is, its history, and the international bill of rights. continuing I will go over some of the un guaranteed rights based on the international bill of rights)))))))))))))

Right to clean water

(water is a human right - even displaced people are entitled to clean water. Not having access to clean water violates international law obligations - UN adopted the right to safe and clean drinking water as a human right in 2010. Many refugee camps have inadequate water and sanitation services - violates right to clean water. Clean water access is expensive and difficult to monitor in refugee camps - many refugees are not guaranteed a consistent supply of clean, safe, drinking water.)

Implications & Future Action

The escalating impacts of climate change are rendering significant portions of the world uninhabitable, displacing millions of people annually. Droughts, water scarcity, and rising sea levels are among the primary environmental factors driving this displacement, forcing communities to abandon their homes. Rising temperatures exacerbate resource scarcity, intensifying competition for vital necessities such as water and arable land, and often contributing to conflicts that further force migration.

The United Nations reports that approximately 21.5 million people are displaced by climate-related events every year, a stark reminder of the immediate human cost of environmental crises. This number includes those affected by sudden disasters, such as hurricanes and floods, as well as those forced to migrate due to slow-onset events like desertification and sea-level rise. By 2050, experts predict the number of climate refugees could soar to an estimated 1.2 billion, driven by a combination of worsening environmental conditions and socio-economic vulnerabilities. This staggering projection underscores the urgent need for coordinated global action to address the complex interplay of climate, migration, and security.

To mitigate the growing challenges posed by climate-driven migration, several international initiatives are in place, with notable examples being the European Green Deal and the Paris Agreement. The European Green Deal outlines a comprehensive strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, emphasizing renewable energy, sustainable industry, and the preservation of biodiversity. By addressing emissions at their source, the initiative aims to reduce the factors contributing to climate displacement. Similarly, the Paris Agreement, a landmark global accord, seeks to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C—preferably to 1.5°C—above pre-industrial levels. This agreement prioritizes international collaboration, mobilizing resources to help vulnerable nations adapt to climate impacts and strengthen resilience. Together, these efforts represent a critical step in addressing both the causes and consequences of climate-induced migration, though continued commitment and innovation will be essential to meet the scale of the challenge.

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