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	'''Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: A Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases''' was a ] international conference that ~~redefined~~ the link between atmospheric ] concentration, and the 2 °C (3.6 ]) ceiling on ] thought necessary to avoid the most serious ]. Previously this had generally been accepted as being 550 ].		'''Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: A Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases''' was a ] international conference that examined the link between atmospheric ] concentration, and the 2 °C (3.6 ]) ceiling on ] thought necessary to avoid the most serious ]. Previously this had generally been accepted as being 550 ].

	The conference took place under the ] presidency of the ], with the participation of around 200 'internationally renowned' scientists from 30 countries. It was hosted by the ] in ], between ]-].<ref>{{cite web		The conference took place under the ] presidency of the ], with the participation of around 200 'internationally renowned' scientists from 30 countries. It was hosted by the ] in ], between ]-].<ref>{{cite web

Revision as of 07:04, 22 July 2008

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Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: A Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases was a 2005 international conference that examined the link between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration, and the 2 °C (3.6 °F) ceiling on global warming thought necessary to avoid the most serious effects of global warming. Previously this had generally been accepted as being 550 ppm.

The conference took place under the United Kingdom's presidency of the G8, with the participation of around 200 'internationally renowned' scientists from 30 countries. It was hosted by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, between 1 February-3 February.

Objectives

The conference was called to bring together the latest research into what would be necessary to achieve the objective of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change:

to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

It was also intended to encourage further research in the area. An initial assessment of the subject had been included in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report, however the topic had received relatively little international discussion.

Specifically, the conference explored three issues:

For different levels of climate change what are the key impacts, for different regions and sectors and for the world as a whole?
What would such levels of climate change imply in terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations and emission pathways required to achieve such levels?
What options are there for achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gases at different stabilisation concentrations in the atmosphere, taking into account costs and uncertainties?

Conclusions

Among the conclusions reached, the most significant was a new assessment of the link between the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in global temperature levels. Some researchers have argued that the most serious consequences of global warming might be avoided if global average temperatures rose by no more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels (1.4 °C above present levels). It had generally been assumed that this would occur if greenhouse gas concentrations rose above 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent by volume. This concentration was, for example, informing government in certain countries including the European Union.. Other research suggests, however, that 2 °C warming is unlikely to cause major economic problems.

The conference concluded that, at the level of 550 ppm, it was likely that 2 °C would be exceeded, based on the projections of more recent climate models. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm would only result in a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2 °C, and that it would be necessary to achieve stabilisation below 400 ppm to give a relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2 °C.

The conference also claimed that, if action to reduce emissions is delayed by 20 years, rates of emission reduction may need to be 3 to 7 times greater to meet the same temperature target.

Reaction

As a result of the revised opinion on the 'safe' atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses, environmental groups and some political parties are demanding that the UK Government take this into account in the Climate Change Bill, by setting a target to cut emissions by 75% to 80% by 2050.

External links

In the media

April 19 2007, Reuters: World needs to axe greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050
February 1 2006, Euractive: UK chief scientific adviser: Keeping CO2 concentration below 450ppm is 'unfeasible'
January 30 2006, BBC: Stark warning over climate change
January 30 2006, BBC: Climate report: the main points
January 29 2006, Washington Post: Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change
January 1 2006, Times online: World has only 20 years to stop climate disaster
February 4 2005, Environment News Service: Catastrophic Climate Change Risk Accelerating, Scientists Warn
February 3 2005, Guardian Unlimited: Climate conference hears degree of danger

References

"Climate Stabilisation Conference - Exeter 2005". Government News Network. 2004-11-04. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
"Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - Background". Met Office. 2005. Retrieved 2007-03-16. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
"Community Strategy on Climate Change - Council Conclusions". Council of the European Union. 1996-06-22?. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
R.S.J. Tol (2007), Energy Policy, 35 (1), 424-434
"International Symposium on the Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations - Report of the International Scientific Steering Committee". Met Office. 2005-05-10. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
"I Count Campaign know Government can do better". Stop Climate Chaos. 2007-03-13?. Retrieved 2007-03-15. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)

Climate change

Overview
Causes of climate change Effects of climate change Climate change mitigation Climate change adaptation By country and region

Causes

Overview	Climate system Greenhouse effect (Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere) Scientific consensus on climate change
Sources	Deforestation Fossil fuel Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gas emissions Carbon accounting Carbon footprint Carbon leakage from agriculture from wetlands World energy supply and consumption

History
History of climate change policy and politics History of climate change science Svante Arrhenius James Hansen Charles David Keeling United Nations Climate Change conferences Years in climate change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Effects and issues

Physical	Abrupt climate change Anoxic event Arctic methane emissions Arctic sea ice decline Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Drought Extreme weather Flood Coastal flooding Heat wave Marine Urban heat island Oceans acidification deoxygenation heat content sea surface temperature stratification temperature Ozone depletion Permafrost thaw Retreat of glaciers since 1850 Sea level rise Season creep Tipping points in the climate system Tropical cyclones Water cycle Wildfires
Flora and fauna	Biomes Mass mortality event Birds Extinction risk Forest dieback Invasive species Marine life Plant biodiversity
Social and economic	Agriculture Livestock Multi-breadbasket failure United States Children Cities Civilizational collapse Crime Depopulation of settlements Destruction of cultural heritage Disability Economic impacts U.S. insurance industry Fisheries Gender Health Mental health Human rights Indigenous peoples Infectious diseases Migration Poverty Psychological impacts Security and conflict Urban flooding Water scarcity Water security
By country and region	Africa Americas Antarctica Arctic Asia Australia Caribbean Europe Middle East and North Africa Small island countries by individual country

Mitigation

Economics and finance	Carbon budget Carbon emission trading Carbon offsets and credits Gold Standard (carbon offset standard) Carbon price Carbon tax Climate debt Climate finance Climate risk insurance Co-benefits of climate change mitigation Economics of climate change mitigation Fossil fuel divestment Green Climate Fund Low-carbon economy Net zero emissions
Energy	Carbon capture and storage Energy transition Fossil fuel phase-out Nuclear power Renewable energy Sustainable energy
Preserving and enhancing carbon sinks	Blue carbon Carbon dioxide removal Carbon sequestration Direct air capture Carbon farming Climate-smart agriculture Forest management afforestation forestry for carbon sequestration REDD and REDD+ reforestation Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF and AFOLU) Nature-based solutions
Personal	Individual action on climate change Plant-based diet

Society and adaptation

Society	Business action Climate action Climate emergency declaration Climate movement School Strike for Climate Denial Ecological grief Governance Justice Litigation Politics Public opinion Women
Adaptation	Adaptation strategies on the German coast Adaptive capacity Disaster risk reduction Ecosystem-based adaptation Flood control Loss and damage Managed retreat Nature-based solutions Resilience Risk Vulnerability The Adaptation Fund National Adaptation Programme of Action
Communication	Climate Change Performance Index Climate crisis (term) Climate spiral Education Media coverage Popular culture depictions art fiction video games Warming stripes
International agreements	Glasgow Climate Pact Kyoto Protocol Paris Agreement Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement Nationally determined contributions Sustainable Development Goal 13 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Background and theory

Measurements	Global surface temperature Instrumental temperature record Proxy Satellite temperature measurement
Theory	Albedo Carbon cycle atmospheric biologic oceanic permafrost Carbon sink Climate sensitivity Climate variability and change Cloud feedback Cloud forcing Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis Cryosphere Earth's energy budget Extreme event attribution Feedbacks Global warming potential Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change Orbital forcing Radiative forcing
Research and modelling	Climate change scenario Climate model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Paleoclimatology Representative Concentration Pathway Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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