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To-do list for Cold fusion: edit · history · watch · refresh · Updated 2023-01-31

1. Expand the Cold Fusion Research section to describe all types of experiments that reliable sources claim demonstrate cold fusion.
2. For each type of experiment, give a sense for the reported results. Place the results in context, for example comparing excess energy to input energy, measurement uncertainty, or chemical sources where appropriate. Give a sense for how many different groups have reported each type of result in reliable sources.
3. For each type of experiment, identify major assumptions made in interpreting the results. Relate questionable assumptions and analysis to alternative non-nuclear explanations.
4. Describe transmutation claims made by reliable sources in greater detail, distinguishing measurement that have been related to episodes of excess heat, distinguishing byproducts measured to be proportionate to excess heat from byproducts detected in tiny amounts.
5. Explain potential errors in making nuclear measurements, such as those that Jones claimed he made in detecting neutrons. Perhaps explain the errors made by Fleischman and Pons. Explain if there are source of contamination that could explain the results. Identify if the detectors used have known reliability or precision issues within the range at which measurements were made.
6. In summary of the above, convey to the reader the information in reliable sources that underlie the claims of cold fusion researchers that the body of data is compelling, and include any additional information or explanation necessary for the reader to make an independent informed judgment as to the merits of those claims.
7. Ensure the article meets a neutral point of view. ~Paul V. Keller 00:17, 24 December 2008 (UTC)

You wrote:

"As of 2008, over 200..." We agreed a long time ago that attaching particular numbers to claims is irresponsible. Since Misplaced Pages has no way of verifying the number of "proper" claims, or even what makes a "proper" claim, we should not be reporting the number of claims.

You "skeptics" are astounding. You live in your own cloud-cuckoo land, where academic standards do not apply and conventional scientific evidence is not admitted. You say "Misplaced Pages" has "no way of verifying" the claims. What methods have you tried? Have you been to a library? Have you tried reading the mainstream, peer-reviewed journal papers listed at LENR-CANR.org? Our copies of these papers came from the libraries at Georgia Tech and Los Alamos National Laboratory. That's the kind of place people usually go to verify a claim. Your "information," on the other hand, appears to come out of a sewer, or you just make it up.

In normal, accepted science (something you apparently know nothing about) replicated, high sigma peer-reviewed results from over 200 mainstream laboratories would be considered irrefutable proof that a claim is confirmed. You "refute" this proof by pretending it does not exist, or putting quote signs around the word 'proper.' In the words of the Bush administration, you are not members of the reality-based community, and consequently you have filled this article and this discussion area with absurd speculation and nonsense.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

The core of science, and of accepting scientific work, is replication of results. There isn't a single experiment described that can reliably replicate any of the results attributed to cold fusion proponents (such as detection of heat, or fusion products such as neutrons). In this sense, has very strong similarities to Polywater. The trouble with claims such as replicated, high sigma peer-reviewed results from over 200 mainstream laboratories is that they are original research. Who decides what is a "mainstream" laboratory, a replicated result, or a high sigma peer reviewed publication? Does Fusion Technology count as a reliable publication, even if peer reviewed and highly cited in Journal of Infinite Energy or Third International Conference on Cold Fusion?

That's what we must rely on reliable secondary and tertiary sources to make these kind of claims. If you find something backing up these claims in a reliable, NPOV publication, then source it, and the skeptics will have a much harder time removing such statements. I don't think that's unreasonable. Unless there's a massive conspiracy to keep cold fusion down, the main strike against it is that there isn't a working model that can reliably generate anomalous anything after decades and tens of millions of dollars spent in research.

Thanks for being up front about your background, BTW. Phil153 (talk) 03:05, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

You wrote:

Who decides what is a "mainstream" laboratory?

Okay, how would you describe Los Alamos, China Lake, BARC, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, AMOCO, SRI, TAMU or the ENEA labs? Are these not mainstream?

. . . a replicated result

If you do not know what replications means you are helpless.

. . . or a high sigma peer reviewed publication?

High sigma refers to data, not publications.

Does Fusion Technology count as a reliable publication?

Yes, and so does the the Japanese Journal of Applied Physics, Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry, the Journal of Fusion Energy and Physics Letters A. And unless you have been to a library you have not read the papers in these journals because they are not available on line (due to copyright restrictions).

That's what we must rely on reliable secondary and tertiary sources to make these kind of claims.

Who is relying on secondary sources?!? I have uploaded 500 original source papers, and made available a list of 3,000 others! How many have you read? You are the one relying on tertiary sources and rumors.

Furthermore, unless you think the laws of thermodynamics have been repealed and x-ray film has magically ceased to work, you have no reason to doubt the existence of cold fusion. In 20 years, no skeptic has published a credible, peer-reviewed critique of cold fusion. Skeptics have published only a dozen or so peer-reviewed papers. You can read most of them at LENR-CANR.org. Look up Morrison or Jones. You will find that they have no merit. When massive, positive, high sigma data has been collected and confirmed in hundreds of labs, using many different instrument types, a scientific debate must end. Peer-reviewed replicated evidence is the gold standard of proof in science. In fact, it is the only standard. You would substitute for it your own opinion, or handwaving, or facts that you just invented. You refuse to read the papers, and you ignore the judgment of thousands of leading experts in electrochemistry, calorimetry, tritium detection and other relevant fields. That puts you on the outside. Cold fusion researchers are distinguished, mainstream experts, and people like you are no better than Creationists!

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

Phil153, I'd suggest that you read our article. You'll find the evidence that you are looking for, including neutron detection, published in reputable peer reviewed journals. Don't be blind. Look at the sources. Pcarbonn (talk) 07:55, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

I have looked at the many of the sources, and I'm not impressed. I see the purpose of this sub disucssion as coming to consensus on whether or not the use of "over 200 experiments have produced results" is reasonable. I don't believe it is, for the following reasons:

• It lacks a reliable source for the count. Can you help out with one?
• There is no indications how many are reliable, how many debunked, etc. To see why this is a problem, consider that I could easily find > 200 favorable case studies for homeopathy for example, or remote viewing, fields that are thoroughly debunked.
• It only presents one side, giving undue weight. For example, typical comments seems to suggest about 1/3 of experiments produce some kind of anomalous result; should we be stating that "over 400 studies have shown that cold fusion produces nothing"?
• There is a publishing bias. Those producing results will generally try to get it published through favorable (and sometimes mainstream) journals, while those that don't tend not to publish. Strong believers will also do an experiment multiple times until a result is obtained, and use ad hoc explanations for why it didn't work before. This is classic pathological science that increases the prevalence of error, instead of decreasing it (which is the role of the scientific method).

For all these reasons I think the mention of the number of favorable experiments is inappropriate in an article on a largely discredited field. Can you tell me which parts you disagree with? Phil153 (talk) 09:46, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

One of the best source is Storms 2007, published by World Scientific Publishing. I would propose that we say : "Storms published a list of 200 reports of excess heat experiments and 60 reports of anomalous tritium production", so that it is properly attributed and factual information from a secondary, reputable source. (I could not find a book on homeopathy nor on remote viewing from that publisher, in their bookshop).

I disagree with your analysis of negative results. See what 1989 DOE said : "Even a single short but valid cold fusion period would be revolutionary. As a result, it is difficult convincingly to resolve all cold fusion claims since, for example, any good experiment that fails to find cold fusion can be discounted as merely not working for unknown reasons." This is perfectly in line with the scientific method. Many people have tried, and failed, to clone animal, and they did not publish about it : do you conclude that successful ones are in errors ? This proves that such a line of reasoning is not correct. Pcarbonn (talk) 11:03, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

Good work on the source. BTW, I don't conclude that the successful ones are in error (that would be silly), but merely that there is a strong bias toward publishing successful results in a field with a KNOWN history of poorly conducted experiments and strong proven likelihood of false positives. It's the combination (good likelihood of false positives in any given experiment + selection bias) that leads to the accumulation of error and a lopsided positive count. It would occur even if cold fusion was total bunk. Therefore, publishing the count of successful experiments gives a very misleading and biased analysis of the field. Your comparison with cloning is inappropriate, since cloning can be independently and conclusively verified after the fact by a DNA experiment. No such independent verification is available for cold fusion; we rely on the reporting of the scientists involved, who are reporting small margins not very far out of the realm of calibration and measurement errors (it's not like you can run a light bulb off a cold fusion device, or have it self power after a jump start, or cook you breakfast). Phil153 (talk) 11:34, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

So, we seem to agree : the publishing bias is not relevant. The issue is how convincing are the published favorable results, irrespective of the negative ones. The CR-39 provide clear evidence of nuclear activity, and can be "independently and conclusively verified after the fact by a ", as far as I'm concerned. Pcarbonn (talk) 11:44, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

Just to follow up a bit further, I'd be happy if the quote you proposed above went into Summary_of_assertions_of_current_proponents. I think it's appropriate to present their claims (as a subsection of a cold fusion article), although WP:Fringe suggests that it must be written from a mainstream perspective (i.e. critically and with disclaimers on the more unsupported claims). I'm not sure if SA and others would agree though. Phil153 (talk) 11:49, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

To be honest, I'm very wary of WP:Fringe. I prefer to stick to WP:NPOV, which says that "The principles upon which these policies are based cannot be superseded by other policies or guidelines, or by editors' consensus." Here is what I think of WP:MAINSTREAM. Pcarbonn (talk) 12:15, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

Let me explain something to this audience that you may not realize about the perspective of the cold fusion researchers regarding this debate.

You are probably as ignorant of the field as the editors of the Scientific American are. They told me they have not read a single paper on the subject because it is “not their job.” They are certain that the effect was never replicated. Such people of course can have no notion who published these papers, where the papers were published, what the claims are, what experiments have been done, what instruments were used, or anything else. It is clear from the comments published by the Scientific American editors that they know none of these details, and they have in fact made up absurd nonsense about cold fusion, or dredged up it from the Internet. You can compare their statements to the experimentally proven facts to confirm this.

As you probably know, in academic science it is customary to first read experimental papers before discussing them or criticizing them. People who do not do this are generally considered crackpots.

Many distinguished experimentalists and theorists have contributed to cold fusion, including Nobel laureates, the Director of the Max Planck Institute for Physical Chemistry in Berlin; Iyengar, the Director of BARC and later chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission; Prof. Melvin Miles, Fellow of China Lake; three editors of major plasma fusion and physics journals; a retired member of the French Atomic Energy Commission, and so on, an so forth, not to mention Martin Fleischmann, FRS. (You will find papers from all of these authors in the LENR-CANR.org library, and of course at the Georgia Tech and Los Alamos libraries.) Most researchers are distinguished senior professors because younger professors cannot get funding, because the research is controversial.

These people are highly capable and certain of themselves. Many of them literally wrote the book on modern electrochemistry, calorimetry and other relevant fields. They do not make stupid mistakes. They have repeated the experiment thousands of times. They seldom read the kind of comments you skeptics make here, but when they do they instantly dismiss you people as a bunch of ignorant crackpots who do not understand the laws of thermodynamics, who have no clue how a calorimeter works, and who criticize papers they have never read. Naturally, I agree with them.

You people imagine you are qualified to write an article about cold fusion. I doubt that you would casually edit some similar article about some other scientific research that you know nothing about, but for some inexplicable reason you imagine that you are experts on this subject, and that you can casually contradict the likes of Iyengar, Miles or Fleischmann. You imagine that their work is "discredited." This is unbelievable chutzpah. It is egomania. This is why Misplaced Pages will never become a viable source of information about this research.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.217.42.138 (talk) 23:14, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

Maybe you should submit to a proper academic journal rather than Scientific American, then? The peer review comments should be helpful. Verbal chat 23:21, 25 November 2008 (UTC)

Jed Rothwell emphasizes that cold fusion researchers are experts in "electrochemistry, calorimetry, and other relevant fields" and that they have published articles in many journals. However, it is important to remember that cold fusion is a nuclear reaction topic, not simply a chemistry topic, and that experts in nuclear reactions would need to be convinced of its existence before the rest of the world takes notice. If cold fusion researchers are ethical and serious about sharing cold fusion with the world, it is their obligation to submit papers to journals that report on nuclear reactions such as Physical Review C. The fact that they either do not, or do not get their articles accepted for publication, is very significant. Olorinish (talk) 00:05, 26 November 2008 (UTC)

Olorinish wrote: ". . . experts in nuclear reactions would need to be convinced of its existence. . . " Many of them are. I listed some above, especially the people at BARC and Los Alamos. All serious cold fusion experiments are collaborations with nuclear experts, and the nuclear experts I know who have participated in successful experiments are convinced, except for the late Dr. Clarke, mentioned in the article, and of course Prof. Steve Jones. The nuclear experts I have spoken with who are not convinced have not read the literature and have no idea what has been discovered, or claimed.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

Jed Rothwell, as far as I understand it, Misplaced Pages's purpose is to present an encyclopedia that contains accepted knowledge. It doesn't seek be an arbitrer of the truth of any claim, or do its own research, but merely to present the mainstream via secondary and tertiary sources, and some of the controversy. This has been discussed ad naseum here and in other fringe science articles.

In any case, the purpose of the talk page is to improve the article - so I'm curious what specific statements in the main article you disagree with and how you think they should be changed. Phil153 (talk) 02:52, 26 November 2008 (UTC)

Phil153 asked: "I'm curious what specific statements in the main article you disagree with and how you think they should be changed." This reminds of the joke: 'How do you make a sculpture of an elephant?' 'Answer: get a large rock and cut away everything that does not look like an elephant.' I would take this article and cut away everything that does not look like conventional, peer-reviewed, rock-solid science from mainstream journals. Cut away opinions, unfounded rumors, crackpot theories from people who don't believe that calorimetry works, and assertions that the research has been "discredited" by unnamed "experts" who have never published a paper. Unless these experts have names, credible professional affiliations, and they have published peer-reviewed papers listing technical errors in actual cold fusion papers, they do not belong here. Eliminate the politics, the fake history, and unimportant gossip. In short, I would make this article look like any article about any scientific topic! If you want an article about the academic politics surrounding cold fusion, by all means make one. Put the crackpot theories elsewhere too. Misplaced Pages articles about biology are not overrun by Creationist crackpots, so why are the 'skeptics' who know nothing about cold fusion allowed to overwrite this one?

There are, in fact, six actual, professional scientists who have published papers and books that purport to find errors in cold fusion experiments. I have uploaded as much of their work as they have given me permission to upload. I encourage everyone to read them, especially Huizenga, Hoffman and Morrison, because I think their work has no merit. It will convince readers that there are no valid arguments against cold fusion, which is correct. If you want to add their arguments to this article, I encourage you to do so. They are first-class crackpots, but unlike the anonymous crackpot opinions now littering the article these are from real professors with names from legitimate institutions who have actually published papers with falsifiable technical claims -- papers you can read at a library, or at LENR-CANR.org. (A few others have written books attacking cold fusion that have no technical content; that is, no falsifiable technical arguments that can be resolved with reference to data. For example, Park claims that all cold fusion scientists are liars, lunatics or criminals. Such claims cannot be put to the test by examining colorimetric data, whereas anyone who knows a little chemistry will find glaring errors in papers by Morrison or Hoffman.)

Note that there are ~2,500 authors at LENR-CANR and as far as I know every one of them is a professional scientist. I would not list their papers otherwise.

The other thing you need to do is to organize the topical logically, according to what has been discovered and what types of experiments are done, instead of wandering around the topic. This article has very little useful information, and what little there is is out of date and buried under mounds of empty speculation.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

So, you assert that all who criticize cold fusion are crackpots or skeptics and have never published any paper... except for the ones that actually did, but those don't count because you looked yourself at the papers and you determined that they are all wrong. Sorry, but that's all WP:OR original research and it just won't cut it here. You have to follow the WP:RS reliable sources guideline and find proper sources for all those claims you make. --Enric Naval (talk) 16:33, 27 November 2008 (UTC)

Enric Naval wrote:

. . . skeptics and have never published any paper... except for the ones that actually did, but those don't count because you looked yourself at the papers and you determined that they are all wrong.

On the contrary! The ones who actually did publish should count. They should be part of this article. I tried to add the main points from their papers years ago, but the 'skeptics' deleted them. The 'skeptics' do not want any actual anti-cold fusion papers mentioned here because these papers are full of astounding mistakes. They are an embarrassment. You can look at their papers and see that for yourself, and I encourage you to do so. See, for example:

http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/Fleischmanreplytothe.pdf

See also the book by Hoffman, which was mainly devoted to the hypothesis that Ontario Hydro (now Hydro One) sells used moderator heavy water from CANDU reactors for use in laboratories. This kind of grotesque nonsense is the best argument the anti-cold fusion authors can come up with. You can scour the literature all you like: I guarantee you will not find anything sounder than this. Look at books by non-scientists such as Taubes and you find even more mind boggling stuff, such as the claim that electrochemists measure voltage only and not amps, and the claim that laboratory power supplies deliver "more electricity" on weekends because factories use less. It would not be fair to list mistakes by Taubes here (for one thing, there are hundreds like that in his book -- you wouldn't know where to start), but Hoffman is a professional and I think this article would benefit from a section mentioning some of his mistakes.

What I object to are non-technical critiques and assertions that cannot be verified or falsified. Also, baseless and imaginary assertions, such as the ones in Scientific American, should only be mentioned in the article to point out that they wrong. An article about science should be based on experimentally proven facts, not whatever random notion pops into John Horgan's head. See:

http://www.lenr-canr.org/News.htm#SciAmSlam

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

I'm not taking a position on the article, but I do not think you can make a credibility judgment in a vacuum. There has to be a distinction between good science and huckster science because there are more hucksters out there than you can shake a stick at. If we cannot filter good information from bad, then good information is hopelessly diluted and eveything reduces to a matter of undifferentiated opinion. Read everything, fund everything, what's the difference?

Peer review publication is one way of screening, even if it is not an acid test. No one can look over every article or analyze every experiment that has been done, but it would help to know that lots of qualified people have made the effort and been convinced, or not.

Other credibility factors cannot and should not be ignored. A lack of a theoretical basis convincing to physicists figures large. If an experiment is contrary to a previously tested and broadly functioning theory, that is a good reason to hypothesize an experimatal mistake. Many experiments showing more energy out than in have been found flawed, revindicating conservation of energy.

Foundaton in mistake does not bode well - I do not think the Manhatten project would have gotten far if they were just stumbling about in the lab. Talking to the press before convincing peers looks bad to me. And the desire for cheap clean energy without all the hassle of sustaining 10 million degrees makes this field ripe for pseudoscience.

Which nobel laureates did you say are convinced cold fusion is real?Paul V. Keller (talk) 20:02, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

Paul V. Keller wrote:

No one can look over every article or analyze every experiment that has been done, but it would help to know that lots of qualified people have made the effort and been convinced, or not.

Lots of qualified people have made the effort, and are convinced. Roughly 2,500 of them are. You will find papers written by them at LENR-CANR.org. Please read them and see why they are convinced.

If an experiment is contrary to a previously tested and broadly functioning theory . . .

I am no expert in theory, but people who are say that cold fusion does not contradict or violate theory.

. . . that is a good reason to hypothesize an experimatal mistake. Many experiments showing more energy out than in have been found flawed, revindicating conservation of energy.

Cold fusion is based upon calorimetry, which is based upon the conservation of energy. If energy is not conserved, cold fusion experiments are wrong, and meaningless. (It is more the other way around; thermodynamics was derived from calorimetry.)

Which Nobel laureates did you say are convinced cold fusion is real?

In physics, Schwinger, Rubbia and Josephson. I do not know about ones in chemistry or other fields.

- Jed Rothwell

I should add that Schwinger, Rubbia and Josephson gave reasons why they believe cold fusion is true, and wrote technical papers. I have read brief statements by other Nobel laureates who do not believe cold fusion is real, but these statements did not include any technical details. So I do not know what basis they have for their beliefs -- if any. Of course many other scientists have published various letters and statements expressing doubt about cold fusion but again, the statements have no technical content so they cannot be verified or falsified. Roughly half of the 2004 DoE reviewers do not believe cold fusion is real, and most of them gave reasons for their views. You can read their statements at LENR-CANR.org. You will find that the ones who do not believe in cold fusion gave invalid reasons. That is to say, they made assertions that are not in evidence (such as the notion that cold fusion heat might be caused by a chemical reaction) or assertions that violate the scientific method (such as the notion that theory can overrule replicated, high sigma experimental results).

- Jed Rothwell —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 22:10, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

You exaggerate. A lot. Julian Schwinger did not "believe" in cold fusion. Schwinger believed in being open minded about cold fusion. What his writings offer is a hypothesis that could reconcile theory with experiment. These hypothesis were based on what would be required to explain the data, assuming the data was valid. I see nothing in what he wrote that showed "belief". I'll grant you Schwinger clearly felt cold fusion warranted further consideration and that scientists should not prejudge cold fusion. But I also note that in related work Schwinger prepared a vacuum energy theory to explain sonoluminescence, a theory that has not gained traction or been supported by experimental data. To the contrary, it seems a very hard fit to the phenomena and the phenomena has been more convincingly explained by other theories. Also, the sonoluminescence was just sketched out by Schwinger: he left someone else to puts some flesh on the bones of his theory. http://www.infinite-energy.com/iemagazine/issue1/colfusthe.html

I do not think Rubbia has any place on your list. As far as I can tell, he said something that got quoted in an Italian paper and propogated by cold fusion enthusists. I could not find any original material, but it seems most likely he was referring to his idea for a particle accelerator-based power source, which is a far cry from "believing" and "publishing papers" claiming you can get nuclear reactions by chemical means.

Josephson, like Schwinger, seems credulous when it comes to data and seems able to come up with a theory for any observation. Josephson also believes in telepathy. He has a theory to explain it. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2001/sep/30/robinmckie.theobserver

Reason number 47 for being incredulous, proponents feel the need to exaggerate the stregth of their position: Reason number 48 for being incredulous: proponents grasp at straws. Reason number 49 for being incredulous, leading proponent also believe in telepathy.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:48, 28 November 2008 (UTC)

Rubbia has worked with cold fusion researchers in Italy with whom I am in frequent contact. He gave lectures indicating that he is convinced. I have not read any newspaper accounts and I do not know Italian, so I do not know exactly what he said, but the researchers told me that's what he said. Schwinger told me he was quite convinced, shortly before he died.

No one is grasping at straws; the results speak for themselves. Cells have produced over 100 W for hours, with no input. In some cases they have produced 10,000 times more than an equivalent mass of chemical fuel could, and not one milligram of chemical ash has been found. Tritium has been measured at levels millions of times background. Hundreds of fogged x-ray films and other x-ray detectors prove there are x-rays. There are some marginal results but other results are beyond doubt. People who do not believe such clear-cut results have turned their backs on the experimental method. They have abandoned objective standards in favor of faith-based, opinion-based, anything-goes pseudo religion. If you are a scientist you must believe what the instruments prove. That is the bedrock basis of the scientific method.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 01:15, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

I strongly disagree with the statement that non-believers have "turned their backs on the scientific method." I, for one, have not. When someone publishes solid nuclear reaction evidence in a major journal, or demonstrates a device which provides useful heat, people like me will change our minds about cold fusion. Olorinish (talk) 01:48, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Jed, I do not believe your comments are contributing in any logical way to a discussion of the article content. You assert "cells have produced over 100 W for hours, with no input" with no context or citation. Who would know whether that is a credible claim, or what you mean by "no input"? You assert that in some cases they have produced 10,000 times more than an equivalent mass of chemical fuel could, and not one milligram of chemical ash has been found. What "chemical ash" are you talking about and why should I attach significance to the failure to find "one milligram"? How was this "equivalent mass of chemical fuel" and its chemical potential energy determined? What would lead me to conclude that your "hundreds of fogged x-ray films" are best explained by cold fusion? Frankly, there in no possible justification for your assertion that what "the instruments prove" is beyond dispute. If yesterday's "proof" could not be disputed, "cold fusion" would never have seen the light of day. By making so many undocumented, controversial, and half stated assertons of experimental results you foreclose a logical discussion by sheer volume. What's left is just inuendo and insult. I disagree with your claim that cold fusion proponents are objective, whereas those that are unpersuaded are "opinion-based" and engaging in "pseudo-religion".Paul V. Keller (talk) 18:59, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Olorinish wrote:

When someone publishes solid nuclear reaction evidence in a major journal . . .

There are hundreds of papers in major journals describing rock-solid, irrefutable proof of solid-state nuclear reactions. These papers are written by thousands of professional scientists. If you have read these papers and you do not think they prove there is a nuclear reaction, I suggest you write a paper describing the technical reasons for your conclusion. Contact me at LENR-CANR.org when you finish, and I will upload it. (By "technical reasons," I mean you must cite errors in the experimental technique. I do not mean an assertion that a result is theoretically impossible and therefore the experiment must be wrong, or an assertion that calorimeters, mass spectrometers and x-ray film do not work. Those are violations of the scientific method.)

. . . or demonstrates a device which provides useful heat, people like me will change our minds about cold fusion.

It is probably impossible to develop or demonstrate such a device without proper funding. The reaction cannot be controlled enough to scale up safely. Cold fusion research is orders of magnitude cheaper than tokamak plasma fusion research, but it still costs millions. Results have improved considerably in the last 10 years. SRI used to input 1 W and get out at most 3 W excess, with only ~10% success rate (as I recall). Now they input less than 1 W and get out 20 to 30 W, and it works nearly every time. So there has been progress, but it is unreasonable to expect a practical device. In any case, no one demands practical tokamak, HTSC or cloning before believing these results, so it is unreasonable to demand this of cold fusion. This standard has never been applied to other experimental breakthroughs.

- Jed Rothwell —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 15:59, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Please list the three articles that you think are most persuasive of nuclear reactions. Regarding the higher standard for cold fusion confirmation compared to other topics, people should be more skeptical: (A) The compatibility of cold fusion with existing scientific knowledge is far, far lower than with the other topics you mention. (B) The incentives for success are higher than in other fields, so people might "want" to believe more in positive results. (C) Cold fusion had advocates (P and F) who acted very strangely during their time in the spotlight. (D) Cold fusion has had "confirmations" that turned out to be erroneous. In fact, considering these factors it would be irresponsible for scientists, or wikipedia editors, to have the same standards for confirmation of cold fusion as other topics. Olorinish (talk) 17:08, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Olorinish wrote:

Please list the three articles that you think are most persuasive of nuclear reactions.

I do not think anyone should read three article and try to form an opinion on cold fusion. It is a complicated and poorly-understood subject. I think ~30 papers and books would be better. Here are some that I often recommend:

Introductory articles and books: Storms, Beaudette, Mallove.

Introduction for non-scientists: Rothwell, chapter 2 (FAQ): http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJcoldfusiona.pdf

An early but important review paper: Gerischer

Excess heat: McKubre, Mengoli, Storms, Pons, many others

Tritium: Will, Bockris Packham Chien et al., Storms, Radhakrishnan et al. at BARC, Claytor

Heat and tritium: Lautzenhiser

Helium: Miles, B. Bush

X-ray detection: Rout et al. at BARC

X-ray, heat excess and 4He in the D:Pd system, D. Gozzi et al.

Particle beam (lukewarm) cold fusion: Kasagi, Takahashi

(C) Cold fusion had advocates (P and F) who acted very strangely during their time in the spotlight.

I disagree. I know Pons and Fleischmann personally, and I know a lot about what they said and did in the spotlight. I cannot imagine anyone could have handled the pressure better than they did, except perhaps Obama.

(D) Cold fusion has had "confirmations" that turned out to be erroneous.

I am not aware of any. Which experiments do you have in mind? I know of three famous negative experiments that are actually positive (false negatives), and I know of about 100 early replications that failed for reasons that are now well understood, but I do not know of any erroneous confirmations (false positives). The only one in this category might be Georgia Tech, but it was never published so it does not count. (I only count experiments that I have on paper, either from journals or proceedings. I have 3,600 papers in English, and several hundred in Japanese.)

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

Misplaced Pages is not a WP:Mainstream encyclopedia: on the contrary, it is a WP:NPOV encyclopedia. This is not the same. Also, how do you explain that the 2004 DOE panel was evenly split on the evidence of excess heat, if there was a mundane explanation for the heat observed ? How do you explain that 1/3 was somewhat convinced by the evidence of nuclear reactions, and that one was entirely convinced ? Obviously, they do not consider the argument that it would contradict known thery. We should not either, and follow the experts who have reviewed the evidence, if we want to give a service to our readers. Pcarbonn (talk) 00:38, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

As a scientist, the first thing I am looking for is reproducible experiments. Next, I am looking for reproducibility with progressively increasing precision to the point where the data shows what some of the important variables are and some rough functional relationships. Then I am looking for the all important steps of forming a theory and making predictions from that theory, followed by testing of the predictions, and thus the theory, by experiments.

Cold fusion is way behind the curve on this flow. Cold fusion is still stumbling on the reproducibility part. The review cited in the main article describes 50-200% excess heat in 1/3 of the experiments, which is pretty sorry in terms of reproducibility. The 2004 DOE report, which is based on a report prepared by cold fusion research proponents, left 50% of the reviewers concluding excess heat itself had not been convincingly shown, to say nothing of quantified.

Figure out what the variables are and start controlling them to get near 100% reproducibility followed by decreasing experimental error (measurement uncertainty) and you'll be doing science and you will have little trouble convincing people you are doing science. If you think the Pd electrode is the wild card, build a system with eight Pd electrodes to statistically average the effect, etc.

Various reports of X-rays, gamma rays, neutrons, protons, helium-4, helium-3, and/or "anomalous" isotopic distributions do not make cold fusion science or advance the theory. A report of one of these products that is reproducibly quantified would be more convincing than the collective report of all of them.

Cold fusion has made poor progress from the point of view of theory and experiment. Schwinger tried to help make cold fusion a science by giving it a theoretical framework. Given the absence of helium-4 (D+D), he postulated p+D -> helium-3 and a gamma ray. Given that no gamma ray was observed, he went out on a limb and postulated comparatively macroscopic well-ordered portions of the Pd array could take up the gamma rays before they are emitted. I would expect this to lead to experimentally testable predictions, such as a prediction that a Pd array will adsorb gamma rays of a certain frequency, or that gamma ray will be emitted if you alter the Pd lattice structure. I see no such predictions and experiments. Instead, the main proponents are now claiming helium-4.

Every science has to start somewhere, but "cold fusion" has already had a good helping of time, effort and funding. The hypothesis is that electrochemically-induced nuclear reactions explain an experimental result. It was a far-fetched hypothesis to begin with, because the working theories of nuclear physics lead to the conclusion that a very high energy is required to bring the nuclei together and all past observations show nothing in the electrochemical system that could impart the required energy. Prediction based on that far-fetched hypothesis, such as gamma rays, did not bear out. Instead or rejecting the hypothesis, enthusiasts added another far-fetched theory: macroscopic lattices take up all the gamma ray energy before it can be detected. What prediction will be made on that theory? Could any experimental result cause proponents to reject the nuclear reaction theory, or is cold fusion now a religion?

Cold fusion proponents, who decry for their lack of objectivity those physicists who assert cold fusion is impossible, brazenly assert that a chemical source is impossible, that all other energy sources are impossible, and that various types of experimental error are impossible. Ahem. Meanwhile, even the demonstrations of unaccounted for heat prove hard to reproduce. I see a very unconvincing case for cold fusion. I see a very convincing case for pathological science.Paul V. Keller (talk) 16:47, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Paul V. Keller wrote:

As a scientist, the first thing I am looking for is reproducible experiments.

Where have you looked? Which authors and papers have you read? Many papers describe reproducible experiments.

I cited my source above. The 2004 DOE report (which only looked at material gather by cold fusion proponents) and the review article cited in the main article. I also explained that good reproducibility would include quantitative results, not just qualitative result. The articles I cite are only talking about qualitative results.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Cold fusion proponents . . . brazenly assert that a chemical source is impossible . . .

If you disagree, then please list a chemical source of energy that produces 50 to 150 MJ of heat from ~20 ml of water and a few grams of palladium, with no chemical ash or detectable chemical changes. Now tell us what chemical reaction can produce tritium, x-rays, and helium in the same ratio to the heat as plasma fusion does.

Its not a question of whether I disageee. The point is that you and other cold fusion advocates are applying a double standard, one to when considering evidence contrary to cold fusion theory and one when considering evidence contrary to other theories that would explain the same data. Just look at what's written above.

As far as speculating on a previously unidentified energy source or storage mechanism, that seems a little premature when more than half the DOE reviewers were not convinced there was even an effect to explain.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

. . . and that various types of experimental error are impossible.

Not impossible. I know of many errors in cold fusion experiments, especially the false-negative ones. However no significant errors have been found in quality experiments, after 20 years of searching for errors and thousands of replications, using conventional off-the-shelf instruments in mainstream institutions. Again, if you are aware of any errors in the peer-reviewed literature please list them. Claiming that there "might be" errors doesn't count. You have to actually show them. A skeptical point of view does not get a free pass.

You need to make a prima facie case before you can shift the burden of persuasion.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Meanwhile, even the demonstrations of unaccounted for heat prove hard to reproduce.

Experts now reproduce heat 80 to 90% of the time. Many experiments are far more difficult to reproduce than cold fusion, such as the plasma fusion tokamaks and the top quark experiment, or in biology, cloning of mammals. The failure rate in the latter is about 100 times greater than cold fusion. No one claims that plasma fusion does not exist because it is difficult or expensive to replicate. In the history of science, this has never been given as a reason to disbelieve a result.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 20:42, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Paul V. Keller wrote:

I see a very convincing case for pathological science.

This is a good example of an unfounded assertion. You linked the term "pathological science" to the article with Langmuir's definition. This definition includes 6 characteristics:

   * The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative agent of barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause.
   * The effect is of a magnitude that remains close to the limit of detectability, or many measurements are necessary because of the very low statistical significance of the results.
   * There are claims of great accuracy.
   * Fantastic theories contrary to experience are suggested.
   * Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses.
   * The ratio of supporters to critics rises and then falls gradually to oblivion.

Cold fusion does not have a single one of these characteristics. People often claim it does, but a cursory review of the literature proves that it does not. It produces heat, tritium and other effects at levels hundreds to millions of times above "barely detectable intensity"; the magnitude of the effect is correlated with loading, flux and other well defined parameters (which has been known since 1992). It is far above the limits of detection. And you can go through the rest of the list yourself.

Please refrain from making statements which are totally at odds with the facts. Waving your hand and declaring that cold fusion is "pathological science" does not make it pathological science, unless you redefine that term to mean something other than what Langmuir had in mind. The late editor of the Scientific American once did this, in a letter to me. He redefined "pathological science" to mean any effect for which the "precise physical mechanism is not fully understood." That sure covers a lot of ground!

See: http://www.lenr-canr.org/AppealandSciAm.pdf

- Jed Rothwell

I gave the foundation for my statement, and I was careful to qualify it as a matter of opinion. What I meant was that I find much more support for the hypothesis "cold fusion is pathological science" than for the hypothesis "cold fusion has been found experimentally". By pathological science I mean a theory that will not go away no matter how much evidence accumulates that it is not a good theory. In this case, I pointed out that the theory would have predicted gamma rays. Gamma rays were not found. Instead of rejecting the cold fusion theory and looking for other explanations for the data, the researchers came up with another far feteched theory: the lattice theory of direct energy transfer. As far as the specific factors go:

The causitive agent remains unclear: Energy can be stored in many forms and heat effects can have innumerable causes.

Effects near the limit of detectibility: The only evidence of nuclear reactions presented to the DOE was Helium-4 production, which was detected at background levels or barely above. When above, air contamination would explain the result (according to the report). As far as gamma rays: I do not even know if you claim them now. You mentioned X-ray plates. The 2004 DOE applicants did not claim gamma rays, but advanced the lattice theory.

Claims for great accuracy: Check how many times "irrefutable proof" is used above. Btw, there is no such thing in science.

Fantastic theory: Fusion at room temperature.

Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses (not to mention hostility): See the foregoing discussion

I'll ask you specifically: could any experimental result cause you to reject the nuclear reaction theory? If not, is you belief in cold fusion different from a religious belief? If it hass become a religious belief to some, if it has a life of its own, if the theory cannot die no matter how poorly it performs, then pathological is a good description.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)

Paul V. Keller wrote:

I mean a theory that will not go away no matter how much evidence accumulates that it is not a good theory. In this case, I pointed out that the theory would have predicted gamma rays. Gamma rays were not found. Instead of rejecting the cold fusion theory and looking for other explanations for the data . . .

Obviously, this means that cold fusion is a nuclear process that does not (often) produce gamma rays. That is not a theory; it is an observation. Cold fusion produces heat and helium commensurate with the heat, therefore it is fusion. Or do you claim that a chemical process can do this? A chemical process with no chemical fuel and no chemical ash? That is much more farfetched than the nuclear hypothesis.

The causitive agent remains unclear: Energy can be stored in many forms and heat effects can have innumerable causes.

Chemical energy can only be stored to roughly 4 eV per atom. Cold fusion has produced 10,000 eV per atom, with no known upper limit. (That is, the reaction did not stop on its own.) There are not "innumerable causes" of heat effects but only three: mechanical, chemical and nuclear.

Effects near the limit of detectibility: The only evidence of nuclear reactions presented to the DOE was Helium-4 production . . .

A great deal more than that was presented to the DoE! Tritium, gamma rays, x-rays and neutrons were also presented, although obviously not at levels commensurate with a plasma fusion reaction.

. . . which was detected at background levels or barely above. When above, air contamination would explain the result (according to the report).

I am not sure which report you refer to, but that is mistaken. Helium has been detected at levels above atmospheric concentration in some cases. In other cases it is far below these levels, and as Miles points out, it would have to leak in at fantastically well controlled levels to achieve just the right ratio to the heat, and it would have to leave behind the other gasses in the air. There is no known way to make that happen.

As far as gamma rays: I do not even know if you claim them now.

Then you are not familiar with the literature.

You mentioned X-ray plates. The 2004 DOE applicants did not claim gamma rays, but advanced the lattice theory.

Theory has no bearing on cold fusion. It is an experimental observation. It has no theoretical explanation yet, as far as I know.

Claims for great accuracy: Check how many times "irrefutable proof" is used above. Btw, there is no such thing in science.

Who has refuted cold fusion experiments? Please tell me the title of a peer-reviewed paper that points out significant errors in major cold fusion papers.

Fantastic theory: Fusion at room temperature.

This is an observation, not a theory, as I said.

Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses (not to mention hostility): See the foregoing discussion

There is nothing ad hoc about the methods used to confirm cold fusion. They are all conventional, reliable experimental techniques performed by experts, and they have been repeated thousands of times.

I'll ask you specifically: could any experimental result cause you to reject the nuclear reaction theory?

Certainly! It is obvious! All you have to do is demonstrate that a chemical reaction can produce a hundred megajoules from a mole of chemically inert material, without producing chemical ash. Plus you have to show how it can produce helium and tritium.

Alternatively, all you have to do is show that conventional calorimetry, tritium detection, x-ray film and so on do not work, or that they were done incorrectly. Looking at calorimetry: many different calorimeter types have been used to confirm cold fusion heat, such as static, flow, and Seebeck. These techniques have been used in countless experiments, in many different fields of chemistry, biology and nuclear physics, going back to the 1840s. The instruments, techniques, and calibration method used by Fleischmann and Pons and others were developed by J. P. Joule in the 1840s, and the instruments that Joule himself used were good enough to measure cold fusion heat with confidence. Many high-tech, modern methods have also been employed, such as IR cameras at the U.S. Navy, and microcalorimeters at Tsinghua U. Researchers have measured heat ranging from a fraction of a watt to over 100 W, with no input power in some cases. This has been done in over 200 labs. So, to disprove the heat results, you need only show that the results from all of these different calorimeter types, in different labs, operated by different people, were all -- without exception -- mistaken (or fraudulent). Or you might show that calorimetry itself does not work because the laws of thermodynamics are wrong. (Some skeptics make this claim.)

It isn't enough to falsify one or two of these results; you have to show mistakes in hundreds of experiments, and thousands of runs. Because if even one of these results is right, then cold fusion is real, and it is not a chemical reaction.

I think there is no chance you can prove that all these experiments were in error. No widely replicated experiment in history has ever been shown to be a mistake. Replicated experiments are the only standard of truth. What the instruments show to be true must be accepted as truth, when it has been seen by many researchers. You might quibble with the number of replications needed. Some might want 5 quality replications; others might hold out for 10. But to continue to deny the results after they have been replicated hundreds of times is to deny the experimental method itself.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org