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Template:Future election

The 2006 Canadian federal election (more formally, the 39th general election) will almost certainly be held on January 16 or 23, 2006. Although law requires only that the election must be held by 2009, a minority government has allowed opposition pressure to shorten the lifespan of the 38th parliament substantially.

Recent political events, most notably testimony from the Gomery Commission investigating the sponsorship scandal, have been perceived to have weakened the governing Liberals by alleging widespread corruption and criminal behaviour in the party. While Prime Minister Paul Martin had committed in April 2005 to dissolve Parliament within a month of the tabling of the second Gomery Report (now schueduled for February 1, 2006), all three opposition parties represented in the House of Commons—the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and New Democratic Party (NDP)—have announced that they no longer intend to wait until then.

Opposition leader Stephen Harper introduced a motion of no confidence on November 24, which is to be voted upon starting at 6:30 pm (EST) November 28. NDP leader Jack Layton, seconded the motion. The motion passed on November 28th, 2005, with all MPs from the NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and Conservatives voting with a combined 171 votes for. An election will be called on November 29th.

Background

An early election is likely because the 2004 federal election held on June 28, 2004, resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan of a year and a half. Some pundits consider the current minority to be particularly unstable. It involves four' parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g. Liberals + Conservatives; Liberals + Bloc Québécois; Conservatives + Bloc Québécois + NDP) could actually command a majority of the seats, a necessity if a government is to retain power. From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non-confidence vote.

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Brinkmanship in the spring of 2005

The parliament came close to falling when testimony from the Gomery Commission caused public opinion to move sharply against the government. The Bloc Québécois were eager from the beginning to have an early election. The Conservatives announced they had also lost confidence in the government's moral authority. Thus, during much of spring 2005, there was a widespread belief that the Liberals would lose a confidence vote, prompting an election taking place in the spring or summer of 2005.

In a televised speech on April 21, Martin promised to request a dissolution of Parliament and begin an election campaign within 30 days of the Gomery Commission’s final report. The release date of that report would later solidify as February 1, 2006; Martin then clarified that he intended to schedule the election call so as to have the polling day in April 2006.

Later that week, the NDP, who had initially opposed the budget, opted to endorse Martin's proposal for a later election. The Liberals agreed to take corporate tax cuts out of the budget on April 26 in exchange for NDP support on votes of confidence, but even with NDP support the Liberals still fell three votes short of a majority. However, a surprise defection of former Conservative leadership candidate Belinda Stronach to the Liberal party on May 17 changed the balance of power in the House. Independents Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parrish provided the last two votes needed for the Liberals to win the budget vote.

The deal turned out to be rather unnecessary, as the Conservatives opted to ensure the government's survival on the motion of confidence surrounding the original budget, expressing support to the tax cuts and defence spending therein. When Parliament voted on second reading and referral of the budget and the amendment on May 19, the previous events kept the government alive. The original budget bill, C-43, passed easily, as expected, but the amendment bill, C-48, resulted in an equality of votes, and the Speaker of the House broke the tie to continue the parliament. The government never got as close to falling after that date. Third reading of Bill C-48 was held late at night on an unexpected day, and several Conservatives being absent, the motion passed easily, guaranteeing there would be no election in the near future.

Aftermath of the first Gomery report

On November 1, John Gomery released his interim report, and the scandal returned to prominence. Liberal support again fell, with some polls registering an immediate ten percent drop. The Conservatives and Bloc thus resumed their push for an election before Martin's April date. The NDP stated that their support was contingent on the Liberals agreeing to move against the private provision of healthcare. The Liberals and NDP failed to come to an agreement, however, and the NDP joined the two other opposition parties in demanding an election.

However, the Liberals had intentionally scheduled the mandatory "opposition days" (where a specified opposition party controls the agenda) on November 15 (Conservative), November 17 (Bloc Québécois) and November 24 (NDP). These days meant that any election would come over the Christmas season, an unpopular idea. Following negotiations between the opposition parties, they instead issued an ultimatum to the Prime Minister to call an election immediately after the Christmas holidays or face an immediate non-confidence vote which would prompt a holiday-spanning campaign.

To that end, the NDP introduced a parliamentary motion demanding that the government drop the writ in January 2006 for a February 13 election date; however, only the prime minister has the authority to do so, not Parliament, so any such motion cannot be legally binding. Martin had indicated that he remained committed to his April 2006 date, and would disregard the motion, which the opposition parties managed to pass, as expected, on November 21 by a vote of 167-129.

The three opposition leaders had agreed to delay the tabling of the no-confidence motion until the 24th, to ensure that a conference between the government and the aboriginal leaders scheduled on the 24th would not be disrupted by the campaign. Parliamentary procedure dictated that the vote be deferred until the 28th.

Potential polling dates

It is expected that upon losing confidence, the Prime Minister would immediately ask the Governor-General to drop the writ, and declare an election for early January. Canadian elections can take place no earlier than 36 days after the writ is dropped, and most recently, elections have taken place on the earliest possible Monday, in this case January 9, 2006. However, the polling day will almost certainly be delayed slightly, as the campaign will be largely paused for several days over Christmas. Currently January 16 and January 23 are considered the two most likely dates. Even if the opposition refuses to put forward the non-confidence motion, the government would still be expected to fall: there is a vote on supplementary budget estimates on December 8, and if it loses, loss of supply will topple the Liberals, resulting in an election no earlier than January 16, 2006.

The election, if held, would involve the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except in New Brunswick, where the boundaries of Acadie—Bathurst were deemed illegal. Many of the candidates would also be the same. Fewer incumbents would choose to leave than if they had served a full term, and the parties have generally blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government although there are some exceptions.

In addition to the four sitting parties (three of whom run nationally), the Green Party of Canada intends to again run candidates in all 308 districts. Though no Green candidate has yet been elected in Canada, the party, once viewed as a fringe movement in Canadian politics, has made significant gains in recent polls.

Issues

Issues that are likely to play a major role in the 2006 election, from most important to least:

Sponsorship scandal

This issue continues to be a hindrance for the governing Liberals. The Liberals are currently being attacked and will undoubtedly continue to be hammered by the opposition on this issue, particularly by the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois, especially after inquiry hearings in early 2005. Recent testimony has intensified the debate and strengthened the opposition, as new and sharp details have come out in the Gomery Commission. It will likely be the #1 issue in the next election. An April 14 CBC poll showed it and government leadership as being the top election issue, even ahead of health care.

Health care

This is a perennial top issue in Canada. In previous election campaigns both the Liberal Party, and the NDP have heavily campaigned to be seen as protectors of Canada's Medicare system. The new Conservative Party, and its predecessors have campaigned on "fixing" the Medicare system in various ways, but have remained quiet on the issue (in comparison with the other two federal parties). Many on the political right support a two-tier health care system which would provide private health service for those willing (and able) to pay; though the Conservative party is officially against two-tier health care. The Conservative Party and the Bloc Quebecois also supprt devolving complete jurisdiction on heath care to the provinces (as originally designated in the BNA Act) which many see as a back door way towards privatization. The left opposes the increase of for-profit influence in the healthcare system, and often claims that healthcare is an essential service, and should be equally availiable to all Canadians regardless of ability to pay. On the other hand the left wing and especially the NDP have been criticized at times as using socialized medicine to stir up "class war" feelings in the electorate.

Social Issues

Though Canada's generally liberal social policies have enjoyed fairly consistent levels of support in the last decade, there are criticisms from the "Christian Right" and other conservative groups, especially in the rural areas, that Canada's policies on abortion and same-sex marriage have become far too liberal. However, when the same-sex marriage bill passed on June 28, 2005 polls done by CTV and Ipsos-Reid showed the majority of Canadians support the legislation. The latest poll, released in July of 2005, pegged support for gay marriage at 55%, opposition at 39%, and 6% undecided. These numbers were not broken down as per level of opposition/support nor the necessary invoking of the Notwithstanding Clause, which would be required to revert to the traditional definition.

On 9 December 2004, when the Supreme Court of Canada released its reference opinion agreeing with gay marriage, 71% said they supported the concept of gay marriage in some form: 39% said gay marriage should be fully recognized and equal to conventional heterosexual marriages; 32% believe it should be allowed to exist in civil law, but not have the same legal weight, while only 29% believed it should never be lawful - 56% of Albertans were opposed in this poll. A poll released months earlier from Ipsos-Reid found that if same-sex marriage was the sole issue driving an election, the Liberals would prevail as the winner. In terms of top election issues, gay marriage consistently, according to polls, have been at only 6% or less on the top of Canadians minds. Health care remains the top priority, along with government accountability. Belinda Stronach cited the Conservative stance on social issues among her reasons for crossing the floor to the Liberals in May 2005, while Pat O'Brien cited the Liberal position when he left the Liberals in June 2005.

Most Conservatives oppose legal recognition of same-sex marriage, although 26% of Conservative Delegates at the 2005 Biennial Convention voted in favor of same-sex marriage. While the Liberals endorsed same-sex marriage as party policy, many members disagree (a few strongly). Most of the Bloc Québécois and most New Democrats are strong supporters of same-sex marriage.

Despite expected Liberal attack ads to the contrary, the Conservative Party rejected many calls to restrict abortions during their 2005 convention, although a large pro-life caucus means that individual members may bring the issue up again. Their post-convention policy document states that "a Conservative Government will not support any legislation to regulate abortion." The Liberals are somewhat divided on abortion, although with far more support of abortion rights than opposition. The Bloc and NDP are staunchly pro-choice.

Another potential issue will be the fact that at their last convention the Liberal party adopted the legalization of prostitution as an official policy, which is strongly opposed by most Conservatives and some Liberals, but supported by the NDP.

Taxation

The Conservatives propose to lower taxes significantly. They believe that this would stimulate the economy. In 2004, the Conservatives promised to end "corporate welfare" and replace it with tax cuts for all businesses. The Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP opposed large tax cuts, and argued that money should instead be spent to improve social programs. The Green Party runs on a fiscally conservative platform of what it calls a "green tax shift", which would see taxes lowered for small businesses and families, and raised for polluters and heavy resource users. Huge surpluses ($9.1 billion in 2004) have increased Canadians' appetites for tax cuts.

The 2005 budget originally implemented relatively modest tax cuts which have been criticized by both the right and left. (Parties, major and minor, from the center to the right demanded much greater tax relief, including support for families raising children at home from the Conservatives; parties from the center to the left, including the NDP, believed corporations and higher-income Canadians should have to pay higher taxes.) However, a later agreement between the Liberals and NDP rescinded the tax cuts, was praised by the left, but demonized by the right (especially business leaders).

An upcoming economic statement (touted as a "mini-budget") will likely include new tax cuts, although it is unlikely that such will find much support as Conservatives will view it as a vote-buying attempt, and it will lose support from the NDP and Bloc who oppose tax cuts.

The rise of high-yield income trusts is also an electoral issue. Starting in 2002, several large Canadian companies converted into income trusts in order to avoid double taxation and reduce or eliminate their income tax payments, making the trust sector the fastest-growing in Canada in 2005. Conversions were almost halted in September 2005 when Finance Minister Ralph Goodale suspended advance tax rulings on trusts, drawing tremendous criticism from powerful pension funds and investment banks. Trust activity resumed in November when the Department of Finance announced, several weeks ahead of schedule, that the trusts would not be taxed and that a dividend tax credit would be introduced to match the trust advantage. The move was applauded by financial circles at the same time as it was critized as a last-minute vote-buying attempt.

Fiscal imbalance

All major parties except the federal Liberals claim that there is a fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces and speak of plans to reduce it. The Bloc Québécois is the most vocal party on this issue. Several provincial governments, most notably Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty and Quebec Premier Jean Charest, have also spoken out on the issue.

Canada-United States relations

This issue has divided Canada more than ever since the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. Most Conservatives believe that closer relations with the United States (such as a North American security perimeter and deeper integration through NAFTA) are necessary for economic and political reasons. Most of the Bloc and NDP believe that Canada needs to move away from the United States, especially with the re-election of President Bush in 2004. The Liberals are deeply split, with many on each side.

The Americans' rejection of NAFTA's final ruling in Canada's favour in the U.S.-Canada softwood lumber dispute on August 10, 2005 has raised questions about if and how Canada will retaliate. The future shape of free trade will likely be an important issue if it is not resolved by the election.

In the west issues such as BSE, and Argriculural Tariffs have inspired anti-US feelings.

In addition, the Bush administration in the United States wants Canada to openly join the National Missile Defense program (currently Canada participates in some parts of the shield). The Conservatives are open to negotiating the issue with the USA, while the Bloc, the NDP, the Green Party and many Liberals strongly oppose it. Prime Minister Martin announced in February 2005 that Canada will not join the missile shield; this has upset some Liberals who supported missile defence.

Environment

The Liberal government has been critized by several parties for its policies on environmental matters. Criticism has been expressed by all other parties regarding the Liberal party's management of Canada's carbon dioxide emissions, and how Canada will meet its obligations to the Kyoto Protocol. Other environmental issues such as water quality in Aboriginal communities have received attention.

Parliamentary reform

The Conservatives accused the Liberals of perpetuating "undemocratic practices" in Parliament, by limiting the powers of MPs. Martin called for some reform, but it never materialized. The Conservatives promised an elected Senate and standing committee and provincial review of judicial appointments. The NDP and the Bloc spoke of abolishing the Canadian Senate - all parties claim to want to reform it. The appointments of nine Senators on March 24, 2005 intensified the debate, it has angered many Conservatives, especially in Alberta.

Electoral reform

The Conservatives promised fixed election dates and a review of the electoral system. The NDP and the Green Party promote the idea of proportional representation voting -- the NDP and Green parties win a considerably smaller proportion of seats in the House of Commons than of the popular vote under the current first past the post system. Meanwhile, one referendum in British Columbia in May 2005 nearly succeeded in requiring single transferable vote in future provincial elections, and another referendum will be held in November 2005 in Prince Edward Island on using mixed proportional representation. Ontario is also considering such reforms, as is Quebec. Changes at the provincial level will put pressure on the federal government to make similar changes.

Gun registry

Most Conservatives strongly oppose the gun registry, while the other parties generally support it. The Conservatives promise to scrap the long-gun registry (handguns and restricted firearms would remain registered) and introduce tougher gun-related crime laws, including minimum sentencing for gun crimes. A few Liberal backbenchers have spoken against the registry; however, they are overwhelmed by the party support.

Parliamentary stability

One small potential factor could be parliamentary stability; polls consistently show that any new election would likely result in another minority government, either Liberal-led or Conservative-led, and that would likely lead to another election in 2007. Voter fatigue could become a major problem.

Minor party positions

Opinion polls

In the wake of Jean Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission and its release on April 7, several polls were commissioned to gauge the fallout for the Liberals. The results of these polls showed a dip in support for the Liberals which encouraged the Conservatives to seek an early election by tabling a non-confidence motion. However, Liberal support has recovered following an agreement with the NDP to support some changes to the budget and a number of incidents involving Conservative MP Gurmant Grewal that hurt the Conservatives. Consistently since the Brault testimony the polls have indicated that an election would result in an increase in the number of seats for the Bloc and NDP, and cyclical gains and losses for the Conservative Party inversely to the Liberal Party.

In November, the first report by Justice John Gomery was released to the public. Subsequently, once again, the poll numbers for the Liberals have dropped. However, just days later, a new poll (see Strategic Counsel - November 6) shows the Liberals are already bouncing back. Most public opinion polls show that Canadians still, by at least 60%, don't want an election until after the second Gomery report is released in February. Latest polls show overwhelmingly Canadians feel Jean Chretien was responsible for the scandal, but that the Prime Minister still needs to accept responsibility -- it is this 'accepting responsibility' that Canadians seem unsure of at this point.

The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events. Last updated: November 28, 2005 - 06:08PM EDT

1. This Compas poll was taken over the course of a single day.
2. Polling for this data mostly occurred before Jean Brault's Gomery Inquiry testimony was released.

Party Standings at dissolution

Notes:

• "% change" refers to change from previous election
• The Aboriginal Peoples Party of Canada, FemINist INitiative of Canada, Sex Party and Peace and Ecology Party of Canada are in process of gathering signatures for formal registration.

Candidates

• All on one page
• Newfoundland and Labrador
• Prince Edward Island
• Nova Scotia
• New Brunswick
• Quebec
• Ontario
• Manitoba
• Saskatchewan
• Alberta
• British Columbia
• Nunavut
• Northwest Territories
• Yukon

Targets

The term "Targets" is used often in the UK and Australia, although not in Canada. In those nations, it represents the ridings in which parties came closest to being elected without winning. Winning party shown in brackets. Up to 20 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again

Cabinet ministers who won by less than 5% in 2004

1. Liza Frulla, Canadian Heritage: 0.2% over BQ in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC
2. Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Northern Development: 0.3% over NDP in Western Arctic, NT
3. Pierre Pettigrew, Foreign Affairs: 1.1% over BQ in Papineau, QC
4. Belinda Stronach, Human Resources and Skills Development: 1.3% over Lib in Newmarket—Aurora, ON; elected as a Conservative, Stronach defected to the Liberals on May 17, 2005.
5. Anne McLellan, Deputy PM/Public Safety: 1.4% over Cons. in Edmonton Centre, AB
6. Tony Valeri, House Leader, 1.9% over NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON
7. Aileen Carroll, International Cooperation, 2.6% over Cons. in Barrie, ON
8. David Emerson, Industry, 3.1% over NDP in Vancouver Kingsway, BC
9. Jacques Saada, Quebec Economic Development, 4.9% over BQ in Brossard—La Prairie, QC

Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

Liberals

• Peter Adams, Peterborough
• David Anderson, Victoria
• Jean Augustine, Etobicoke—Lakeshore
• Don Boudria, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
• Claudette Bradshaw, Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
• Marlene Catterall, Ottawa West—Nepean
• Paul DeVillers, Simcoe North
• John Efford, Avalon
• Beth Phinney, Hamilton Mountain
• Jerry Pickard, Chatham-Kent—Essex
• Rose-Marie Ur, Middlesex—Kent—Lambton

Conservatives

• David Chatters, Westlock—St. Paul
• Jim Gouk, British Columbia Southern Interior
• Dale Johnston, Wetaskiwin
• Charlie Penson, Peace River
• John Reynolds, West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
• Werner Schmidt, Kelowna—Lake Country
• Darrel Stinson, Okanagan—Shuswap
• Randy White, Abbotsford

New Democrats

• Ed Broadbent, Ottawa Centre

Bloc Québécois MPs

• Marcel Gagnon, Saint-Maurice—Champlain

Independents

• David Kilgour, Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
• Pat O'Brien, London—Fanshawe
• Carolyn Parrish, Mississauga—Erindale

Timeline

2004

• November 18 - Outspoken Liberal MP Carolyn Parrish is dismissed from the Liberal caucus by Prime Minister Martin for making statements critical of the Liberal Party and the prime minister. She now sits as an independent.

• December 16 - Liberal MP Lawrence O'Brien dies of cancer. A by-election in his riding, Labrador, was called for May 24.

2005

• February 23 - Finance Minister Ralph Goodale presents the 2005 federal budget to the Canadian House of Commons. When the Bloc and NDP opposed the budget, the Conservatives abstained on the vote, which was held on March 9, allowing the government to maintain confidence.
• March 31 - Testimony by Jean Brault, former president of Groupaction at the Gomery Commission is considered so damaging to the Liberals that many speculate that an election may be held soon. The details of the testimony are not publicly revealed due to a publication ban imposed by Mr. Justice Gomery.
• April 7 - Justice Gomery lifts the publication ban on much of the testimony just minutes before question period. Opposition parties launch a full assault on the government with the new evidence.

• April 11 - *An EKOS/Toronto Star poll shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 25%. This is the first time since before the 1993 election that a party has led the Liberals by more than the margin of error.
• April 13 - David Kilgour leaves the Liberal caucus to sit as an independent. Kilgour who was originally elected as a Progressive Conservative in the 1979 election says he will not run as a Conservative in the next election.
• April 21 - Prime Minister Paul Martin addresses the nation at 19:02 eastern time and promises to call an election within 30 days of the final report of the Gomery Commission, due on December 15, should his government survive to that date, while outlining the steps his administration has taken to address the sponsorship scandal. Following this, each of the three opposition party leaders respond live following Martin's taped address. The NDP's Jack Layton offers to support the government, which, with the close numbers in the House of Commons would make the survival of the government possible but not certain, if Martin will remove corporate tax cuts from the budget. Opposition Leader Stephen Harper suggests an election is likely but not certain while Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe unequivocally supports an immediate election.

• April 26 - An agreement in principle between the Liberals and the NDP is reached under which tax cuts for large corporations will be deferred but those for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME's) will remain. The deferred tax cuts will be introduced later in a separate bill, while budget surpluses will be used to fund mutual Liberal and NDP priorities such as: training, post-secondary education, foreign aid, affordable housing and the environment. Under the agreement, the NDP will support the government on any confidence motions until the budget receives Royal Assent.
• May 10 - The House of Commons passes, by a margin of 153 to 150, a Conservative motion which called upon the House Public Accounts committee to "recommand that the government resign because of its failure to address the deficiencies in governance of the public service". Conservative and Bloc Québécois MPs voted in favor of the motion against the Liberals, the NDP and two independent MPs. Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri maintained that the vote was not a matter of confidence while all opposition parties, including the NDP though it sided with the government on the vote, said that it was. The government loses four more similar votes over the next two days.
• May 11 - Prime Minister Martin calls for a vote on the budget implementation bill on May 19, he suggests that this will be the time that the House will determine whether or not it has confidence in his government. Some contitutional experts had suggested such a move should be taken as the confidence issue was unceratin.

• May 17 - Prime Minister Martin and prominent Conservative MP and former leadership contender Belinda Stronach announce that Stronach will join the Liberal Party and become Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development. This move gives the Liberals a stronger but not certain chance of winning the confidence vote scheduled for May 19. It brought the total number of MPs committed to supporting the government on the vote to 152 with 152 opposed with two undecided.
• May 18 - British Columbia MP Gurmant Grewal alleges that he has a taped conversation with Paul Martin's Chief of Staff Tim Murphy, on the tape Grewal and his wife Nina are supposedly offered patronage appointments if they abstain on "certain" votes.

• May 19 - The budget implementation bills, both matters of confidence, pass the House of Commons. The first bill, on the original budget, passed without opposition by the Conservative Party as a gesture of support for the Atlantic Accord. The second bill, which implemented the April 26 deal between the Liberal Party and the NDP, resulted in a tie vote which was broken in favor of the government by the Speaker of the House. Independent MP David Kilgour voted against the bill, and Independent MP Chuck Cadman voted in favour. This is the first time in Canadian history that the Speaker of the House has broken a tie on a matter of confidence.
• May 24 - Liberal Todd Russell wins a by-election held in Labrador, winning with a reduced majority. Surprisingly for a by-election, turnout is significantly increased over the 2004 general election. Although there is now one more Liberal in the House, the government will still need the support of the NDP and two of the three independents in order to survive future confidence votes, though under such circumstances the Liberals would no longer require the Speaker to break a tie in their favour, something which the speaker would not do on all matters of confidence, such a third reading on a budget bill.
• June 4 - Former Premier of Quebec Bernard Landry announces his surprise resignation as leader of the Parti Québécois after receiving 76% support from a leadership review at the party's convention. Speculation immediately mounts that Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe will resign from federal politics and run to replace him.
• June 6 - Ontario MP Pat O'Brien leaves the Liberal Party to sit as an independent, citing his dissapointment with Paul Martin not keeping his promise to hold cross country hearings on same-sex marriage. Mr. O'Brien has promised to do everything in his power to defeat Bill C-38 (presumably including a vote of no-confidence with the government).
• June 9 - The Supreme Court of Canada strikes down a law in Quebec banning private health care.

• June 10 - An audio engineer hired by the Conservative Party states that he can find no alterations in the final released version of the Gurmant Grewal tapes. This audio engineer is the only one to have actually examined the original tapes. There had been earlier evidence that Grewal may have altered the tapes but this analysis was done on exerpts of the tapes, not the complete product.
• June 13 - Gilles Duceppe announces he will not run in the PQ leadership race but will instead lead the Bloc through the next federal election.
• June 23

• The House of Commons passes a motion to extend the sitting of parliament indefinately until such time as Bill C-38 (same-sex marriage) and Bill C-48 (Budget companion bill to implement agreement with the NDP) are passed.
• In the late evening, shortly after third reading debate begins on Bill C-48, the Liberals introduce a closure motion supported by all parties but the Conservatives leading to a vote on C-48 which sees it pass by a margin of 152-147. This is seen as a reaction to the plan by Conservatives to bring down the government over C-48 the following week. As a result, the extended session of parliament will only have to deal with C-38.

• July 9 - Chuck Cadman succumbs to cancer at age 57.
• August 12 - The RCMP announce that they will not launch a criminal investigation after reviewing audio recordings made by Conservative MP Gurmant Grewal.
• August 15 - The United States says it will disregard a NAFTA decision ruling their tariffs on softwood lumber illegal and continue their activities, prompting Finance Minister Ralph Goodale to say that International Trade Minister Jim Peterson is considering Canada's options, which could include litigation or trade sanctions.

• August 26 - In published remarks by the Ottawa Citizen, U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Wilkins says that Canadian leaders should stop their "emotional tirades" and get back to negotiating on trade issues. The comment immediately draws the ire of both the Liberal Government and Opposition Leader Stephen Harper.
• August 28 - Industry Minister David Emerson blasts David Wilkins over his comments "I find it a little hypocritical to hear the ambassador telling us we should be negotiating ... we've been negotiating for years, The Ambassador has to realize that Canada is not going to sit back and knuckle under ... Canadians have had enough."
• August 30 - The World Trade Organization rules the U.S. did comply with international law when it imposed duties on Canadian softwood. Jim Peterson says the U.S. victory in the softwood lumber trade dispute is disappointing but not a crippling blow and won't dramatically change Canada's position in the long-running dispute.
• September 26:
  • The House of Commons resumes business following its summer break.
  • Paul Martin announces Revenue minister John McCallum will assume the responsibilities of Natural Resources minister John Efford, although the latter will nominally retain the title and place in cabinet. Efford, who is suffering from diabetes, plans to take time off to tend to his health. He indicates he hopes to become well enough to resume his position in cabinet and run for re-election.
• September 27 - Michaëlle Jean is formally installed as Canada's 27th Governor General largelly without incident despite earlier questions of her husband's ties to the Quebec sovereignty movement.
• September 29 - Nova Scotia premier John Hamm announces he will retire. Speculation puts Conservative Party Deputy Leader Peter MacKay as a possible candidate for the leadership of the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Party.
• October 6 - Paul DeVillers resigns from his post as Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister. It is later revealed that this was due to Prime Minister Martin refusing to create a consolidated cabinet-level department out of Sport Canada as proposed by DeVillers in his role as parliamentary secretary. DeVillers says he will not run in the next election as a result.
• October 17 - Bev Desjarlais loses the NDP nomination in Churchill, and subsequently leaves the party to sit as an independent.
• October 21 - Former NDP MP Svend Robinson announces he'll make an attempt at a political comeback by running against Liberal MP Hedy Fry in the riding of Vancouver Centre. Robinson did not contest the 2004 election, in his then riding of Burnaby-Douglas, after having been arrested for shoplifting.

• November 1 - Justice John Gomery releases the first report of the Gomery Commission into the sponsorship scandal. He finds several Liberal party organizers and Quebec advertising executives to be at fault for defrauding the program, but finds no evidence of elected officials being aware of or directing the fraud. Somewhat controversially, Gomery concludes that former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien holds ultimate responsibility for the program, as it occured under his watch, but exonerates then-finance minister Martin. Martin announces he accepts the findings unconditionally, and refers the report to the RCMP for possible further investigation. In a news conference later that day, Chrétien vows to challenge the report's findings through the courts, alleging bias on Gomery's part.
• November 3 - The first poll is released following Gomery's findings, showing Liberal support dropping about 10%. Speculation mounts such numbers may motivate the opposition to move to prompt an election sooner rather than later.
• November 9:
  • Layton announces that, in order to avoid an election of the Christmas holidays and to avoid the cancellation of the First Ministers' Meeting on Aboriginal issues, he will use his opposition day motion on November 24 to propose that an election be called in early January with a vote in mid-February. Such a motion would not be binding on the government and could not guarantee the election timing contained in its language.
  • Bloc MP Stéphane Bergeron (Verchères—Les Patriotes, QC) resigns from the house to run as a Parti Québécois candidate in a coming provincial byelection.
• November 13 - Harper, Duceppe and Layton meet after Martin says he would not honour Layton's motion calling for an election campaign beginning in January. They propose that they will move forward with the NDP motion but, unless the Prime Minister commits to honouring it, they will vote no confidence in the government forcing an election call sometime in November.
• November 14 - Finance Minister Goodale tables his fiscal update, which included a major tax cut package. The opposition demeans it as an attempt to buy votes.
• November 21 - The NDP's motion to order Martin to call an election passes with a vote of 167-129.
• November 24 - Stephen Harper introduces a motion of no confidence, seconded by Jack Layton. The vote was deferred until November 28.

External links

General links

• Election Prediction Project
• Nodice Elections: Canada
• Nomination Watch
• Politics Canada
• TrendLines Riding Projections
• Elections Canada nominations database
• Hill and Knowlton election predictor

Parties

• Liberal Party of Canada
• Conservative Party of Canada
• New Democratic Party of Canada
• Bloc Quebecois
• Green Party of Canada

• 2006 elections
• Canadian federal elections