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This page is not a forum for general discussion about Scientific consensus on climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Scientific consensus on climate change at the Reference desk.

Discussions on this page often lead to previous arguments being restated. Please read recent comments, look in the archives, and review the FAQ before commenting.

faq page Frequently asked questions Under construction! "‡" indicates answer not yet prepared. See Talk page for current discussions. To view an explanation to the answer, click the link to the right of the question. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on global warming? Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. (Discussion) (From GW/FAQ:A1) Q2: Is the section on "dissenting organizations" adequately supported? The current consensus is that it is. There have been numerous lengthy discussions regarding the AMQUA and AAPG sources. Some have criticized the AMQUA letter as an unreliable reference. Others have stated that the combination of the AMQUA letter and the AAPG statement is against WP:SYN. The most recent consensus on this topic can be found at Talk:Scientific consensus on climate change#straw poll. Q3: How can you say there's a consensus when someone has compiled a long list of skeptical scientists? Over the years, a number of lists of so-called "skeptical scientists" have been produced. Notable among these are the Oregon Petition (circa 1999-2001, and re-circulated in 2007) and James Inhofe's list (originally released in 2007, re-released in 2008 with additional names added). These petitions have proven to be riddled with flaws To wit: Many of the people listed aren't really scientists. For example, the definition of a "scientist" used in the Oregon Petition includes anyone who has a bachelor's degree – or anyone who claims to have a bachelor's degree, since there's no independent verification. Using this definition, approximately 25% of the US population is qualified to sign. Some of the people listed aren't even people. Included on these lists are fictitious characters ("Dr. Perry Mason"), hoaxes ("Dr. Geri Halliwell"), and companies. Of those who have a scientific background most work in fields unrelated to climate, such as the chemistry of coal ashes or the interactions between quarks and gluons. Those who are scientists are listed arbitrarily, and many aren't skeptical of global warming. The Inhofe list was compiled by Inhofe staffer Marc Morano with no effort to contact the people listed. One climatologist, George Waldenberger, even informed Inhofe's staff that he is not skeptical of the consensus on global warming. His request to have his name removed from the list was ignored. Similarly, Steve Rainer of Oxford University has asked for his name to be removed and calls his inclusion "quite outrageous". The Heartland Institute has stated that scientists who have told the Institute that it misrepresented their views on global warming "have no right – legally or ethically – to demand that their names be removed" from the Institute's list. (From GW/FAQ:A2) Q4: Why should scientific opinion count for more than public opinion? Because "science" – either as the time-tested methodologies for learning about the world, or as the immense body of knowledge that has been garnered by those methodologies, or even as the international "scientific community" of tens of thousands of highly trained professionals that use these methodologies – has the better track record. Because the science of climate is based on fundamental laws of physics and chemistry, with the conclusions based on factual data, and the consensus "opinion" has been vetted by hundreds of experts. Whereas the contrarian portion of public opinion has a poor track record, being shaped by politically motivated rhetoric (financed by the "interested" industries) that pushes certain points of view in disregard of objective, factual reality. (For an example, see the previous question.) Q5: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that we were cooling instead of warming? No, they were not – see the article on global cooling. A 2008 paper in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society reviewed "what the scientists were telling us" in the 1960s and 1970s, and found the following. One of the earliest papers in climate science, published in 1963, reported that a global cooling trend had begun in 1940s, which seemed to be underscored by unusually severe winters in 1972 and 1973 in parts of North America. (It was later shown that this supposed global trend was limited to the Northern Hemisphere, and offset by a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere.) Other papers, looking at natural causes of climate variability, such as the Milankovitch cycles, "predicted" another Ice Age in 20,000 years (but only if human activity did not interfere). A survey of the peer-reviewed literature for this period showed a total of seven papers that predicted, implied, or indicated global cooling. On the other hand, 44 papers were found that predicted global warming. That there was some diversity of outlook is not surprising, as scientists often have extremely narrow, "knot-hole" views of a subject, and their conclusions are usually limited to whether the particular phenomena they have studied makes a positive or negative contribution to a general trend. The net result of many such contributions, and the overall effect or trend, is assessed by the occasional review paper, or expert panels at scientific conferences. By 1979 the scientific consensus was clear that the eminent threat was not global cooling, but global warming. The common misperception that "Back in the 1970s, all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" – in less than 20,000 years – is fictional, based on a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, and subsequent misrepresentation by political writers. (See also GW/FAQ:A13) Q6: Why should we trust scientists that work for the government? ‡ (Discussion) Q7: Why does this article rely primarily on the conclusions of the IPCC? Because the conclusions of the IPCC, produced through the collaborative efforts of thousands of experts, are the result of the most thorough survey of the state of climate science (or of any science) ever done. There is simply no other organization or effort that is comparable. Q9: Isn't the IPCC a biased source? ‡ (Discussion) Q10: Why should we trust reports prepared by biased UN scientists? The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by a number of different organizations, including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. (Discussion) (From GW/FAQ:A11) Q11: Why doesn't the article include dissent from the consensus by noted scientists and IPCC contributors? The IPCC consensus regarding climate change was formally developed by thousands of experts, based on the entirety of climate science research and interpretation. The "several prominent contributors" said to be "critical" of the consensus do not constitute a sufficiently significant minority view to warrant inclusion (per the policy of WP:WEIGHT). Nor has any scientific authority been cited that suggests these criticisms in any way challenge the science of the consensus. See also the next two questions. (Discussion) Q12:There are plenty of scientists who dispute human-caused global warming. Why aren't their opinions included? Numerous individual scientists have made a variety of public statements on this topic, both dissenting and concurring, and everything in between. Including those statements here would make the article overwhelming long and cumbersome, and would be granting them far too much undue weight. Public statements made by individual scientists only reflect the opinions of those individuals and not of the scientific community as a whole. (Discussion) Q13: Why doesn't this article include any dissenting views? Non-scientific views (whether dissenting or assenting) are not included because this article is about scientific opinion. There are no "statements by dissenting organizations" because (as noted in the article) "no remaining scientific body of national or international standing is known to reject the basic findings of human influence on recent climate change". Views of individual dissenting scientists are not significant enough to be included in the consensus (a 2010 report estimated the dissenters to be less than 3% of active climate researchers, and their expertise and scientific prominence "substantially below" that of their peers); to include them here would violate the policy of undue weight. (Discussion, discussion, discussion) Q14: Why doesn't this article mention the Oregon Petition or other lists of dissenting scientists? See Question #2. (Discussion) Q15: Where is the Scientific Opinion against Anthropogenic (human caused) Global Warming? What "Scientific Opinion against AGW"? The synthesis of scientific opinion — that is, the view that best represents all climate science research and interpretation, and particularly whether there is, or is not, AGW — is that most of the observed increase in global average temperature is very likely (probability greater than 90%) anthropogenic. It would be more sensible to ask, "what is the scientific case that global warming is not anthropogenic?" But this case is so overwhelmed by the evidence, and held by so few scientists (if any!), that it simply lacks sufficient weight for consideration. (The argument that there is no global warming, that it is not human caused, and that the expected effects are only "alarism", is prominent only in non-scientific venues, and this article is about scientific opinion.) (Discussion, discussion) Q16: Is this article slanted or biased because it presents only one side of the debate? ‡ (Discussion) Q17: Is this article a prohibited synthesis of the opinions of the listed scientific bodies? No. The synthesis of scientific opinion on climate change (based on the primary sources) was done by the IPCC (a reliable secondary source). The statements of the various scientific organizations are affirmations of the IPCC's conclusion; their inclusion in the article establishes the IPCC as a reliable source, and affirms the synthesis it reached as a consensus view. (Discussion) Q20: What exactly is a "scientific body of national or international standing"? An Academy of Sciences or a scientific society that maintains a national or international membership, and that is well-regarded within the scientific community could be said to be of "national or international standing." Discerning how well-regarded a particular scientific body is requires some familiarity with the scientific community. However, for academies or societies that produce scientific journals, some assessment of their standing can be derived from their journal's impact factor ratings as provided by Journal Citation Reports. The journals Science, from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and PNAS, from the US National Academy of Sciences, are considered to be among the world's most influential and prestigious. (Discussion) Q21: What are the criteria for including organizations? ‡ (Discussion) Q22: Is it fair to assume that organizations not listed as supporting are undecided? No. It is fairer to ask, what organizations? It is more likely that any "organizations not listed" simply do not exist, as a reasonable search has not found any. Even easing the definition of a scientific organization to a point that became questionable did not find any undecided organizations (aside from the AAPG). An earlier form of the question noted that the listed organizations are predominately American or British Commonwealth (which is what might be expected for the English-language Misplaced Pages), and questioned whether there might be smaller, non-English speaking nations with scientific societies that are undecided on the issue. This is a possibility, but unlikely; the InterAcademy Council that represents the world's scientific and engineering academies affirms global warming and its dangers. (Discussion) Q25: Given the obvious NPOV violation why shouldn't I tag this article as NPOV? Because the purpose of a tag is to alert other editors to a possible problem, but in this case the other editors are already aware of the alleged problem. Because per WP:General sanctions/Climate change probation you could be sanctioned for just adding a tag. Because the general consensus is that the article is NOT an WP:NPOV violation (see next question). Q26: Does this article violate the Misplaced Pages Neutral Point of View policy? ‡ (discussion, discussion, discussion) References Dissenter on Warming Expands His Campaign. New York Times, April 9, 2009. Retention of sulphur by laboratory-prepared ash from low-rank coal Today: George Waldenberger. Grist.org. December 3, 2007. Kaufman, Leslie (April 9, 2009). "Dissenter on Warming Expands His Campaign". The New York Times. Retrieved 2009-07-09. Peterson, T. C.; Connolley, W. M.; Fleck, J. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. Crichton, M. (2004), State of Fear, Avon Books. Anderegg, William R. L.; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H. (April 9, 2010). "Expert credibility in climate change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Retrieved June 23, 2010. AAAS - AAAS News Release AAAS Annual Report-Science The most influential journals: Impact Factor and Eigenfactor PNAS Retrieved on 2009-11-16

Archives

Index Archive 1 Archive 2 Archive 3 Archive 4 Archive 5 Archive 6 Archive 7 Archive 8 Archive 9 Archive 10 Archive 11 Archive 12 Archive 13 Archive 14 Archive 15 Archive 16 Archive 17 Archive 18 Archive 19 Archive 20 Archive 21 Archive 22 Archive 23 Archive 24 Archive 25

Proposal #2

Counter proposal:

• Article down to semi
• 1RR limit for all
• Removal of NPOV tag

William M. Connolley (talk) 19:09, 12 December 2009 (UTC)

Support

1. William M. Connolley (talk) 19:09, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
2. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:24, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
3. CurtisSwain (talk) 19:28, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
4. Kim D. Petersen (talk) 19:30, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
5. Verbal chat 19:54, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
6. Guettarda (talk) 19:59, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
7. Count Iblis (talk) 21:04, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
8. Ratel ► RATEL ◄ 05:07, 13 December 2009 (UTC)
9. Nigelj (talk) 12:09, 13 December 2009 (UTC)
10. Why are we voting on this? We don't vote. Just do it. --TS 21:25, 13 December 2009 (UTC)
11. Tjsynkral with the caveat that 1RR shall not apply to obvious WP:OR--Tjsynkral (talk) 03:39, 14 December 2009 (UTC)
12. Apis (talk) 13:45, 15 December 2009 (UTC)
13. Airborne84 (talk) 00:13, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Oppose

1. --GoRight (talk) 19:32, 12 December 2009 (UTC)

   Brittainia (talk) 20:43, 12 December 2009 (UTC)This editor has been blocked for sockpuppetry, advocacy and edit warring. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:32, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

2. NPOV tag should remain until dispute is settled ATren (talk) 20:44, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
3. Silly proposal, last I saw these eds where ignoring a NPOV dispute. Are they now agreeing to a dispute? If so, then under wiki rules not there own. That's another issue with WP:OWN, like they can set the rules for a page. I yield no consent to rules from heavily interested parties. Mediators may help set rules. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:26, 12 December 2009 (UTC)
4. Agree with semi, but do not agree with the other standards. Although I am not aware of what the NPOV issues are, I suspect that if the article were renamed to describe "Scientific Organizations stated opinions" or something like that, it would be less subject to NPOV disputes. It would be kind of a sister article to the individual scientists opposing list.--Blue Tie(talk) 03:22, 13 December 2009 (UTC)
5. We still have an absurdly pointless set of tags on the Anthony Watts (blogger) page, which I'm told need to stay there in perpetuo, because a AfD resulted in stalemate. The same editors arguing that the NPOV tag on this article is pointless edit-war to keep the Watts tag in place. Let it not be thought that a small group of Wikipedians are disingenuous & hypocritical; the tag needs to remain in place until the discussion resolves. Alex Harvey (talk) 05:40, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

   Agree - Yes ... right on ... renaming (without a single "Opinion" category) and following the structure set out in Misplaced Pages:NPOV_tutorial#Space_and_balance would be simple help here for me and to balance better with the other articles. Zulu Papa 5 ☆(talk) 04:30, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

6. Removal of the tag has nought to do with imposing a 1RR restriction. As long as there is a dispute about POV, the NPOV tag is not a stigma on the article, it is only a notice that some people disagree. Which appears to be a fact of life. Collect (talk) 15:21, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

   Do you think that every controversial article should be tagged indefinitely? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 16:03, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

   You appear to misread my comment -- which is that where there is apparently substantial active disagreement, that a POV tag is not onerous to an article. It is intended to inform readers, and not be a stigma for the article. In the case at hand, there appears to be substantial and continuing disagreement, which has nought to do with "indefinitely" at all. Is there, in fact, current substantial disagreement as to POV for this article at all? Do you believe that the POV tag damages the article at this point? Collect (talk) 16:32, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

   The NPOV comment requires a reason. You cannot assert that the dispute over the tag is a valid reason for the tag, we need some actual dispute about the content of the page. Pages cannot be tagged indefinitely for no reason. Verbal chat 17:05, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

   And the reason(s) have been stated multiple times. --GoRight (talk) 22:18, 15 December 2009 (UTC)

It is not I that needs to point out that there have been a number of discussions on these topics regarding POV. I only point out that where such discussions exist, that the POV tag is proper. Indeed, this section on "proposal 2" is not the one in which to discuss whether POV exists, or what the POV might be. Collect (talk) 17:19, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

abstain

1. While I would be okay with this, I am cognizant of it failing to address the concerns of others that led us here (concerns which, to me, seem at least partly valid, but which do not constitute POV, especially not on this page.); and I see no reason why we can't resolve those issues, while also simultaneously achieving the outcomes in proposal #2. ‒ Jaymax✍14:30, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Motion to close

Yes, there is irony with time invested in Proposal #2 and "Procedural disputes block climate accord" let the horse go in peace. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 18:38, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

GoRight: "The dispute is over the exclusion of the legitimate points of view concerning "the consensus" which currently occurs on THIS article"

I urge GoRight to drop this point. Because if this article is going to say anything about claims that a consensus does not exist, it can only do that by debunking such claims, as that is the prevailing POV in the literature. There are no two equal sides on this issue. A NPOV wiki article will have to say that the sceptics are wrong when they say that there is no consensus. I'm sure that this is not what GoRight wants to see.

Another issue is that the sceptic POV should be mentioned here on Misplaced Pages. But because this is a such a minority opinion, you could hardly mention that the Global Warming article without violating WP:Weight. That's why we have the Global Warming Controversy article. There is plenty of room to write about claims and counter claims on the scientific consensus there. Count Iblis (talk) 21:23, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Alas, you still don't understand the thrust of the problem. There is an entire body of topics, debates, and controversies surrounding "the consensus" that exist entirely within the public (as opposed to the scientific) domain and they have absolutely nothing to do with "debunking such claims". In fact, my core argument here specifically relies upon the fundamental assumption that such a "scientific consensus" does in fact exist. To provide but one such example, a discussion of the public opinion trends associated with "the consensus" is a perfectly valid topic of discussion that is wholly unrelated to "debunking anything" and doesn't rely upon peer-reviewed anything. My NPOV issue is that this article, which given the current configuration of the redirects and wikilinks is the de facto "main article" on any discussion of the consensus, is systematically blocking any discussion of those public domain points of view. So either allow them to be expressed here, or move the "main article" for the discussion of the consensus elsewhere. Climate change consensus would appear to be a natural choice for such an alternate location. --GoRight (talk) 00:30, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

I do understand you, but if you include public opinions on the consensus, then everything that is written about the public opinion, including criticisms of some sceptical opinions is fair game. That will then likely open the door to far more editing disputes which will be fought with wiki policies like WP:Weight, WP:Undue, WP:RS. That's why content forking to move sceptical opinions to separate articles were they can be discussed in greater detail is better. Count Iblis (talk) 15:36, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

It's well enough covered in the denialism article, to my mind. We don't need to go into it specifically at all, really. --Nigelj (talk) 21:35, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Nigel, up a bit you say: "But whether or not greenhouse gasses are causing dangerous, man-made global warming is not a matter of opinion. Matters of opinion include issues like (list)" - I would add to your list: "whether or not there is scientific consensus that greenhouse gasses are causing dangerous, man-made global warming" as a matter of opinion. As evidence I would offer your local talkback radio station. This is the nub, I think, of GR's concern, and touches on ZP5's key concern I think. Proper coverage, not of AGW science (nominally factual) per se, but of the debate around consensus, is stifled - only one side of the debate around consensus is permitted on this page, despite the debate around consensus being a hot topic with strongly held and strongly disagreeing opinions held my many. Why can we not cover the consensus issue (both sides) over at Climate Change Consensus which appropriatly kicks off strongly with the (overwhelming) majority scientific view - the contested section here is ALREADY duplicated there. ‒ Jaymax✍ 22:01, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Also, per Scientific Consensus "Scientific consensus is not by itself a scientific argument, and it is not part of the scientific method." - so is it appropriate to cover it in any depth on a page where inclusion criteria is largely driven by the sceintific method? ‒ Jaymax✍ 22:01, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Also, per NPOV#Neutrality_disputes_and_handling, "there is probably not a good reason to discuss some assumption on a given page, if an assumption is best discussed in depth on some other page. Some brief, unobtrusive pointer might be appropriate, however." ‒ Jaymax✍ 22:25, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Would GoRight be happy with a link back to the Global Warming Controversy article? Alex Harvey (talk) 00:29, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

No, because there is already a spinoff from that article specifically dedicated to this topic, it is Climate change consensus. The solution I would prefer is that this article simply include a brief statement and a pointer to that article as the "main source" for this topic, at which point it only makes sense to update the consensus related redirects to point there as well. --GoRight (talk) 00:34, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

In fact, my core argument here specifically relies upon the fundamental assumption that such a "scientific consensus" does in fact exist. - Since the current article makes no POV claim based on this phrase (it only mentions that it is of interest and that several scientific organizations use it themselves), and since this article is about scientific not public opinion, it seems this argument is redundant. DHooke1973 (talk) 05:47, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Background to RfC

• Yes it is balanced. Given that, no it doesn't need an NPOV tag. Yes, 1RR limit would help avoid disruption William M. Connolley (talk) 22:48, 13 December 2009 (UTC)
• No, the Consensus section only is unbalanced. The POV tag should stay while the article includes a section on the debate around whether there is consensus, but restricts that to only contributions to the "popular discussion" from scientific societies. The section is already duplicated at Climate change consensus, and striking the section here and adding a brief pointer, per NPOV#Making_necessary_assumptions, would resolve the POV issue. ‒ Jaymax✍ 23:12, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

• The article topic is too poorly defined to enable any consensus to emerge. The reason is that it is a content fork from the article Climate change. identifying the article as a fork is not hard to do because the form of the title runs contrary to Misplaced Pages:Naming conventions, as it uses the convention "Scientific opinion on...." in its title which seperates in from Climate change in name only. I have not seen this done for any other article topic, i.e the "opinions" (aka the sources) are never seperated from the overarching article topic (climate change). --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 00:06, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

• This hatnote, "This article does not include the views of individual scientists, individual universities, or laboratories, nor lists of individuals such aspetitions" demonstrates a POV issue with the article for excluding views and many sources in the article history. The IPCC mission should be included for context. In addition, other opinion categorizes must be briefly included (following Misplaced Pages:NPOV_tutorial#Space_and_balance) to balance the article view. The title should be explicitly objective following category guidance. As is now, the article is a Coatrack for "documenting" .... "scientific opinion" as singly manifested by the IPCC mission. No org mission should be held above Wiki NPOV, non-negotiable. There are sources to reasonably summarize and include other opinions here. Edit wars can be avoided when warriors abstain. No need for 1RR if the warrior(s) acknowledge their waring and abstain. (Thanks for the RFC. Let me know if anyone has questions.) Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 00:33, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

• (Mostly duplicated from above) As long as this article is being utilized as the "main article" for a discussion of "the consensus", as evidenced by the fact that redirects and wikilinks referring to "the consensus" are bringing users to THIS article, then the discussion of "the consensus" on THIS article must include a discussion of viewpoints (i.e. from the public domain) other than purely peer-reviewed ones. The fact that the peer-reviewed argument is being used to prevent those other points of view from being included is the source of the NPOV dispute on THIS article. So, there are two possible options for resolving the dispute:
  1. Move the discussion of "the consensus" to a page where the peer-reviewed argument won't be used to eliminate discussion of otherwise valid points of view, or
  2. Allow those points of view to be expressed on this page as WP:NPOV demands.

I have been pursuing the first approach as this will enable those who prefer to have a place that describes only the peer-reviewed opinions to continue to do so, although the termpositions would be more appropriate. The dispute is not over the listing of the scientific positions of the various organizations represented here. The dispute is not over attempts to undermine the scientific credibility of the positions articulated on this page. The dispute is over the exclusion from THIS article legitimate points of view from the public domain which focus on "the consensus". --GoRight (talk) 00:48, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

• Here's a thought: The primary purpose of an RfC is requesting outside input. And as usual, the outside input is being drowned out by the same old folks restating their same old positions. Let's reboot the process and those of us who've already stated our positions ad nauseam agree to back off and let others get a word in. What say? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:04, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

• This article is about the scientific opinion on climate change, which is distinct from, and not impacted by (but has impact on) the political or public opinion on climate change. The article does this by describing the views from major scientific bodies, and surveys that try to determine scientists opinion - as such it has included all viewpoints from these aspects. What this means and what, if any, impacts this view may have on political or public opinion and the debates about it etc. lies outside of the articles purpose, and is discussed at Climate change consensus, Global warming controversy and to some extent at Politics of global warming. Perhaps we should have another article as well called Public opinion on climate change (seems there is a lot of material), but it certainly doesn't belong here.--Kim D. Petersen (talk) 03:59, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

Request for comment

Please consider joining the feedback request service. An editor has requested comments from other editors for this discussion. Within 24 hours, this page will be added to the following list: Maths, science, and technology When discussion has ended, remove this tag and it will be removed from the list. If this page is on additional lists, they will be noted below.

• The crux of this debate seems to hinge on two issues:

• Is the article balanced with regards to point of view and which sources are accepted as reliable enough to merit inclusion here?
• Is the above problem bad enough to merit keeping a {{pov}} tag on the article?

• Since there is already a lot of debate from the currently involved parties, it would be best if each made a brief statement here summarizing their position, and then let previously uninvolved editors comment for a bit. If you do not feel this summary adequately represents the key points, please note that in your statement. Beeblebrox (talk) 22:38, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

• Addendum: Maybe we can kill two birds with one stone here by addressing this as well: Should the article be placed on a editing restriction limiting editors to one revert per day in order to encourage discussion rather than revert warring? Beeblebrox (talk) 23:32, 13 December 2009 (UTC)

Note: in the interests of encouraging outside participation, I have copied the opening statements to #Background to RfC, above; this method has worked before, but if it is undesirable here please simply undo it and remove this statement. Valued outside commenters, Beeblebrox's opening statement looks like a fair summary of the remaining points of contention, but please review the material in the above section for more detail to this dispute. - 2/0 (cont.) 08:19, 14 December 2009 (UTC)

I have temporarily turned off automatic archiving so that this thread will remain active. Please manually move stale or inactive threads to the archive, and reactivate the bot after the RfC closes on 2009-01-12. - 2/0 (cont.) 18:40, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Please stay calm and civil while commenting or presenting evidence, and do not make personal attacks. Be patient when approaching solutions to any issues. If consensus is not reached, other solutions exist to draw attention and ensure that more editors mediate or comment on the dispute.

I'm still pretty new to this page. I can't fully address the editing restriction proposition since I don't know all the details about how that works. However, anything that promotes discussion instead of unilateral editing that is likely to be immediately controversial is a good thing.

After some thought, I support the removal of the tag. The proposal to add a discussion regarding the debate on the consensus is an interesting one. I agree with GoRight that that discussion must be included in Misplaced Pages in the interest of completeness. I don't think this article is the right place, and the argument that omitting it from this article violates NPOV is not compelling. I would support it here except that I think it would lead to a slippery slope that would quickly grow and overshadow the specific dynamics this article describes.Airborne84 (talk) 12:18, 15 December 2009 (UTC)

The only remotely sensible objections are about the Climate Change Consensus page. There is no sensible objection remaining to the current version of this page. If you want to delete the Climate Change Consensus and fork, fine. Propose on that page's talk, and the main page's talk.

There is a proposal to keep the tag "while the article includes a section on the debate around whether there is consensus"

This has been done - "Surveys of scientists and scientific literature".

The "Consensus" section merely reports that people want to know what the scientific consensus is and that scientific organizations use this word themselves.

The remaining objections to this page boil down to "Are scientific organizations reliable sources for scientific opinion?" and "Public opinion isn't represented on the scientific opinion page."

The answer to both these questions is a straightforward "Remove the POV tag now."

The POV tag on this article is ridiculous and reflects poorly on wikipedia. Unless, of course, you want to put a POV tag on the evolution scientific consensus pages, and also the relevant cosmology pages - then we can all breathe easy and forget about wikipedia being taken seriously at all. DHooke1973 (talk) 23:09, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

• Comment Some of the comments above suggest that some editors may misunderstand the purpose of the POV template. It is not a "badge of shame" or a "warning to readers" or a disclaimer. Its only acceptable use is to request that editors join a discussion about improving the article. If you're using other means (e.g., this RfC) to do that, then it becomes redundant. If the discussion stops -- whether because it is resolved or because you all just get tired of it -- then the tag should be removed under the 'active dispute' clause. WhatamIdoing (talk) 20:41, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

  Do you have any policy doc ref for that, WhatamIdoing? Or does anybody else? A couple of editors here recently have been prepared to have the article locked for days, or get themselves blocked, rather than to have that POV 'badge' removed. Obviously every active editor here is well aware that there is an argument in progress, but much of the time it seems to be about the POV template itself. We had one admin, who for a while took a view similar to yours, but he later appeared to change his mind, and then withdrew from the page anyway. Some actual policy would be useful regarding the use of the POV tag as a "badge of shame". --Nigelj (talk) 21:22, 26 December 2009 (UTC)

What is to be done?

It seems to be there are actually only three choices facing the editors of this article:

1. Find one or more reliable, third-party sources that provide significant coverage regarding the title of this article which be used to define or describe its subject matter of this article in order to comply with the requirements of Misplaced Pages's content policies;
2. If no reliable, third-party sources can be found to define the articles subject matter, then accept that this article is a content fork from the article Climate change (or some other topic), and arrange the merger of the two topics. For as it stands, this article's subject matter is so ill defined that its existence runs contrary to both WP:NPOV#Point of view (POV) and content forks as well as WP:NPOV#Article naming;
3. Accept that no conensus can be achieved, and continue to engage in content disputes, edit warring and deletion discussions, which would be symptomatic of this article falling outside the scope of Misplaced Pages's content polices, in particular WP:NOTOPINION.

The good news is that at least one reliable third-party sources exists that could be used to define this article's subject matter, but what is really needed is at least one more so that it can be categorically "nailed down". This article suggests that this article is about the development or evolution of, or periodic changes in the Scientific opinion on climate change, rather than the opinions themselves, or specific instances of scientific opinion.
Once the subject matter of this article can be described or defined by an external source, I think you will find that the content disputes can be resolved without recorse to agruing over whose opinion is right or wrong. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 09:47, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Question: What about sources that describe 'Scientific Opinion' in the abstract, rather than GW specifically? Do these help, or are they valueless here? ‒ Jaymax✍ 10:04, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Ignore the abstract and read the paper where all the relevant issues are discussed.--Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 10:23, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

"what is really needed is at least one more" ? ‒ Jaymax✍ 10:42, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

...so there can be no dispute from relying on just one source to define this article's subject matter. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 10:54, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

I should have been less obtuse. I read the paper you reference yesterday. You say we need more than one - I am suggesting that another might deal just with the 'scientific opinion' aspect. ‒ Jaymax✍ 11:40, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Until more sources can be found, I propose dropping the (unsourced) hat note, and adding the following paragraph as the lead:

Scientific opinion on climate change, as expressed by the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has repeatedly stressed that global warming is a serious problem and that governments need to respond to this challenge promptly. While the scientific agreement that global warming is taking place and that its consequences will be severe has been growing, it is not a universally held position among experts. Expert disagreement and uncertainty over global warming is particularly likely when scientists are asked to offer broad conclusions, such as the rate of global warming, potential effects, and policy suggestions, which involves value-laden and often contentious discussions of what should be.

Surveys of how scientists view the status of climate change research, conducted in 1996 and 2003, demonstrated a significant shift in scientific opinion regarding global warming, though there remains some disagreement about whether humans are responsible. There has been a significant increase in the level of expert confidence in some aspects of climate change research, most notably land surface processes and sea ice, but scientists remain uncertain about the accuracy of scientific models that offer predictions for future consequences of climate change.

I feel this source coverage of Scientific opinion on climate change represents a considerable improvement over the existing hat note and lead section. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 17:21, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Two problems with your proposal Gavin, (a) The source is a "political" science opinion, and (b)its a US organisation opinion and not a balanced world consensus option. Recommend looking for a source from climate scientists and a consensus opinion at that. Problems with vague wording "some disagreement", whats that then - 1%, 10% of scientific org opinions?.. or "scientists remain uncertain" about what exactly? this blurb gives a nice fuzzy interpretation of climate science as of today, with references to studies from 1996 and 2003, sure why not go back to the 70 and 60 for opinion, might water it down a bit more.. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Windandsea (talk • contribs) 18:57, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

Problems, problems, problems. I am not saying this citation is perfect, but in the absense of any good source about the title of this article, it has got to be an improvement. If you can come up with a better alternative, all well and good. But in Misplaced Pages, reliable secondary sources such as this are valuable additions to any article. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 21:40, 16 December 2009 (UTC)

I would oppose this change for reasons adequately described already on this talk page.Airborne84 (talk) 04:24, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Gavin, please c.f. List of Conan O'Brien sketches. ‒ Jaymax✍ 08:54, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't think we will even find a source that is indicative of what any one or group of editors perceive to be the Truth™, but we can find sources that are verfiable and reliable, and replaced unsourced statements that are not. What ever objections Airborne84 has about this source, he needs to back up his assertions with some sort of reasoned arguement supported by evidence. Alternatively, if he can find a better source, then let him put it before us so we can verify it and check it for reliablity. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 09:41, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

GC, you're still operating from the incorrect premise that the hat-note consists of original research and needs changing. I can't count the number of times you've asserted this with no agreement from editors. To make it easier for you to read the paragraph in WP:DISRUPT on Tendentious Editing, I'll paste it below for you.

Here are some hints to help you recognise if you or someone else has become a problem editor

You find yourself repeating the same argument over and over again, without persuading people. If your arguments are rejected, bring better arguments, don’t simply repeat the same ones. And most importantly, examine your argument carefully, in light of what others have said. It is true that people will only be convinced if they want to be, regardless of how good your argument may be, but that is not grounds for believing that your argument must be true. You must be willing to concede you may have been wrong. Take a good, long hard look at your argument from as detached and objective a point of view as you can possibly muster, and see if there really is a problem with it. If there isn't, it's best to leave the situation alone: they're not going to want to see it and you cannot force them to. If there is a problem, however, then you should revise the argument, your case, or both.

Cheers. Airborne84 (talk) 17:08, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

I think it fair to say that my proposal is the only one sourced by significant coverage from a reliable secondary source that is indpendent. If you have source that is at least as good as or better than this in the sense that it addresses the topic in detail and without original research, then bring it on, but so far we only have your opinion that the hat note is not original research, when what is need are citations to back up your viewpoint. Without a citation to support the hat note, you opinoin carries no weight what so ever. Accuse me of what you will, but the incluison criteria for a standalone article in Misplaced Pages is based on reliable secondary. So far you provided nothing that suggests that this topic is suitable for inclusion, other than asserting that the hat note is all that is need. To that I say the emperor has no clothes. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 23:02, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

"Two problems with your proposal Gavin, (a) The source is a "political" science opinion, and (b)its a US organisation opinion and not a balanced world consensus option."

(a) The source is NOT a political body, but a scientific intergovernmental body. Unless you want to change the Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change page too. (b) How is it NOT the balanced worldwide opinion??

"The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change, established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences.

The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports."

I submit that the IPCC is in fact the ONE and ONLY expert source that does indeed summarise worldwide scientific opinion, because (i) it is created for that very purpose (ii) its reports contain information supplied by the worldwide scientists DHooke1973 (talk) 01:02, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

I see no "problems" with the source: it is a reliable seocondary source , and it is probably the only one cited in the article whose subject matter matches the article's title in the sense that it is actually commenting upon the subject of Scientific opinion on climate change. Whether the source is biased or not is a matter of opinion only, but what is important is that it is not original research: if the reader can check the source of the statements made, then at least it is verifiable, whereas the old hat note was not. Also it is the only source cited in this article which attempts to establish the notability of the article topic "Scientific opinion on climate change". In fact, it is possible to say that this article is not a content fork, because it cites significant coverage from reliable secondary sources that is independent that address the subject matter of article topic directly and in detail, without original research. I see that as a benefit, not a "problem".--Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 10:07, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Gavin, I dont have issue if that source is from IPCC, but the second part of your suggested quote i have issue with as outlined in my prior response. Your Ref title is , from the 'American Political Science Association' thats not IPCC.Windandsea (talk) 18:21, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't have the time to participate in talk page discussions

I just had a quick look now, but I'll be too busy in the coming few weeks to do much here. However, since the discussions here are going nowhere anywhere, I reserve the right to revert the page back to the current version which includes the hatnote defining "scientific opinion". Any inclusion of political opinions (even about the scientific opinion) is i.m.o. unacceptable. There exists a scientific opinion on climate science and it should be possible to have a wiki article that exclusively contains that scientific opinion which is 100% free of political noise, opinions of lay persons etc. etc. Count Iblis (talk) 01:25, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

So do you support replacing the existing consensus section with a brief comment and then a reference to the corresponding section in Climate change consensus? I've already shown that the section in that article is more complete than the one here. This would move the non-scientific opinion BASED discussions you want left off of THIS page to THAT page leaving this one uncontested (by me at least). --GoRight (talk) 01:58, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Iblis, I think all but one editor here pretty much agree with you, including most of those who see a NPOV issue. ‒ Jaymax✍ 03:15, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Count Iblis, your statement is right on the money. GoRight's proposal also seems reasonable in that it:

1. Doesn't represent an attempt to merge article on a huge topic that needs separate, structured articles.

2. Leaves the dynamics of a useful article (this one) intact and undiluted.

3. Directs readers interested in information on the "consensus" to a more complete article - adding to knowledge, instead of subtracting from it.

I'lll admit there were a couple of aspects to the article GoRight mentioned that merit adjustments though. Conversely, if the change isn't necessary to help solve a huge rift between the editors, it may not be warranted. Cheers.Airborne84 (talk) 03:45, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Count Iblis, are you under the impression that you WP:OWN the article? --Tjsynkral (talk) 04:21, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

I agree 100% with Count Iblis. The inclusion of political or any other non-scientific opinions is unacceptable. This article is for people who want to cut through all the propaganda ("most scientists agree", "most scientists refute", "there's a consensus", "there isn't a consensus", "the consensus in growing", "the consensus in crumbling", "there's a growing body of skeptics", etc.) This article gives people what the scientific community actually says and in their own words. I also agree with GoRight and Airborne. If for nothing more than brevity, we should lose the whole consensus section. I've gone back and forth on this, but the word "consensus" is used in 7 of the statements this article quotes, and there's really no point in beating it over the readers' heads. Besides, the whole debate about "consensus" gets rather ridiculous with people arguing whether is means 100% unanimity or simply a vast majority (it actually can mean either). So, yes, the consensus section should go, and non-scientific silliness should stay out.--CurtisSwain (talk) 11:30, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

This would go a long way to resolving my NPOV concerns with this page. However, if people are not currently aware of it there is a movement afoot that would make my proposal above moot, see . Now, if the Climate change consensus article is deleted and split between Public opinion on climate change and Scientific opinion on climate change I would find it acceptably NPOV to maintain a "scientific consensus" section in each of the two articles and cross link the two (i.e. the one here points to there and vice versa). Under that scenario the scientific position statements could stay in this article. --GoRight (talk) 17:58, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

That sounds quite reasonable.--CurtisSwain (talk) 21:54, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Yes, it's completely reasonable that scientific position statements would stay in this article. If they didn't, this article would be blank. Anyhow, there seems to now be no objection to removing the POV tag immediately. Adding in a "see also" link to a "public opinion" page is fine, but has no bearing on the POV-ness of this page either way. DHooke1973 (talk) 23:22, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

I had time to create a new article :-)

See: User talk:ZuluPapa5/Climate Change Opinions‎

This intends to:

1. Keep the purist "Scientific opinion" in a separate article. (With brief acknowledgment and link)
2. Content fork the surveys from here into the new article
3. Merge Economic opinion on climate change into a section
4. Save Public opinion on climate change into a "Historical opinion" section
5. Create space and balance for "Editorial opinion" and 'Advocacy groups" sections

I predict this article will long survive the horde of noise, before the tide rises to swallow the wiki servers and humanity. (Smile it's just humor.)

Being my last two creations were deleted. Let's talk about this content fork and union here please. Sincerely, Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 02:05, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

How does that topic really differ from Climate change controversy, and the more narrowly focussed Climate change consensus? (just realised abbreviating to CCC in talk isn't such a good idea) ‒ Jaymax✍ 03:19, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

That one is really called Global warming controversy. We don't need yet another page from ZP5 at the moment. Settle down William M. Connolley (talk) 09:02, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

WMC, as far as I am concerned, you may lead the way to merge in the CCC articles for which you have expressed disapproval. That could help moving things forward here. (smile) Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 15:48, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Good work ZuIu, I think it's a great idea that has lots of potential. Various groups of people have made public proclamations of their views of global warming/climate change, business groups, religious groups, etc. The article could become a valuable source for readers who want to know, "Hmm, what does the Catholic Church say about AGW? What do Buddists say? Economists? The insurance industry?..etc. However, you might want to change the title to Opinions on climate change. Your working title kind of sounds like the climate itself holds an opinion.--CurtisSwain (talk) 10:47, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Yes, "Opinions on Climate Change" would be a better title and that article could serve as a NPOV over-arching article that links to this one for the scientific opinion. Other categories of opinion could start as sections within that article and if they get too big could be spun off like this one. We sould have to reconcile that article with Climate change consensus and Public opinion on climate change so that the purpose of each is clearly delineated. --GoRight (talk) 15:38, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

 Done Agreed, I'll change the tile and post redirects for the draft old title. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 15:48, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Excellent idea, separation of science and all other options (media/political/economic/religious) can only help in adding clarity to this topic, as today there is so much noise generated by the fringe opinions and media opinions that they are presented on even paring with scientific opinions/papers/evidence based theories.
How will you divide the article weight for each category - in order of importance to average joe (eg political options first comprising of 25% of article length, next importance my guess is religious opinion 15% etc) Windandsea (talk) 14:23, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Well, let's work with something we already know and can easily quantify. For example, we know that the world's population is a little over 6.5 Billion and we know that some 2,500 scientists have a consensus on the scientific opinion. So, roughly (2,500 / 6,500,000,000) * 100 = ~0.00004% of the column inches should be dedicated to the scientific opinion in comparison to the rest. Make sense? --GoRight (talk) 15:38, 17 December 2009 (UTC) YMMV on my calculation for the appropriate weight of the scientific opinion. :)

Not sure i follow you GoRight. Are you arguing that each of the 6.8 billion personal opinions are of the same weight as scientific, political, media, religious org opinions, or are you just taking the piss because you dont approve of this new opinion article, that it goes against your own 'personal' opinions on climate change. if so, i suggest you create your own personal reflections blog. Windandsea (talk) 17:30, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Opinions must be from reliable sources for wiki, please. The 6.8 billion have a role in addressing the issues, but are off topic forum here. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 17:34, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

(edit conflict)

Sorry, I guess I had my tongue planted a little too firmly in my cheek on that one. First, I am generally supportive of the article on opinions so your last bit doesn't seem to apply. As for the rest of my comment I was merely making the (tongue in cheek) point that when determining the relative "weight" of Public vs. Scientific opinion the applicable ratio would be 6.5 Billion to 2,500, roughly speaking. Obviously this is an upper limit, though, there could be other weighting approaches ... in reality there not only ARE other weighting approaches THEY would most likely be the ones actually employed. --GoRight (talk) 17:44, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Thanks, I will start a talk page with FAQ for the draft article. Also, I believe that if "climate change" issues are going to progress in society for a meaningful purpose, they must be open to all disciplines, and not solely the realm of scientific research. As far as deciding weight, I propose to organize sections along the lines of disciplines found in a university. The weight will work it self out in space in balance to the sources. When necessary, separate content forks can be created for space expansion, as long as a balanced summary remains and the fork itself is balanced. For now, merging in other articles may be beneficial to bring these issues together in one place. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 14:42, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

"For now, merging in other articles may be beneficial to bring these issues together in one place." - Agreed. --GoRight (talk) 15:38, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

How this proposal covers this dispute

As stated above, this article would be summarized and content forked in the newly proposed balanced NPOV article. This discussion belongs here. Thank you. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 18:49, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

I should place this template Template:Topic_co-ordination_link on the articles in question, yes?Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk)

No - you shouldn't. Because there is no consensus for such a discussion. (and in all cases it doesn't belong in article space). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 15:22, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Please notice the 2RR , , with no talk from the 1RR proposer. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 14:35, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

No William M. Connolley (talk) 14:51, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Question: What course of action will folks consent to for including content with the sources listed? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 15:38, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Since most of those sources do not match the article's topic, they shouldn't. It is impossible to determine scientific opinion from single individuals, and from non-scientific sources, which i guess is a horse carcass that has been beaten to death by now. Some of these sources may have relevant places (according to weight) in Climate change controversy or other articles, but since they are indications of individual disagreement (or opinions from non-science sources) they do not belong here. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 18:53, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Pardon the persistence, what makes these sources a "Controversy", but for "Scientific Opinion"? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 19:13, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Try carefully reading my comment, you may also want to wander through all the other comments that have been made on this point. I see no merit in explaining the same thing again and again and .... --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 19:49, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

I've gone through all the archives and participated in this talk for some time. What I've seen and agree with, is GoRight's assertion that this article requires greater space for acknowledgment of "controversies" to be balanced in a NPOV. My apologies, did you see that in the dispute here? I made several proposals to move forward, perhaps I should now share my draft RfC proposal? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 20:00, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

Yes, i have seen it, read it, and responded to it quite a lot of times. So have rather a lot of other editors. Making proposals that from earlier discussions have little to no support is a waste of time. You can submit your RfC if that is what you want - but please do not wave it around, whether or not there will be an RfC has no impact (or shouldn't have any impact) on how people see issues. (let me be more specific: If people are acting in good faith, then saying that this will end up with an RfC is not a way to change their views). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 23:32, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

It seems strange to me that you are creating an article which covers the same area as Climate change controversy. And as far as I can see the reasoning is that you have some citations for climate change controversy that don't fit into this article so they should go somewhere else. I think you are trying to say they should be in this document but it looks like you've tried to change the name of his article so they would actually fit as they don't fit the current topic of this article. Could anyone explain what is happening here please? One reason for the controversy is because of the scientific opinions but putting it in this article would be completely against WP:WEIGHT. There are lots other reasons for the controversy that have nothing to do with scientific opinions - people wanting to keep their jobs, people not wanting to reduce their standard of living, general scepticism and conspiracy theories, religious nutters wanting to end the world or whatever. Dmcq (talk) 23:29, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

My intention is not to reinforce "controversies', but to present multiple opinions and assume good faith in the reader. To explain, this article is a WP:coatrack for the IPCC. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 02:33, 20 December 2009 (UTC)

Question Are there any climatologists in the Holy See? DHooke1973 (talk) 04:57, 20 December 2009 (UTC)

Scope?

See climate change vs. global warming. We should use some consistent terminology, otherwise it's unclear what this is about. On a cursory examination it seems mostly about global warming, so I think it should be renamed. Pcap ping 11:52, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Global warming - increase in temperature Climate change - change in weather patterns Global warming is a behavioural subset of Climate change.. is the consensus scientific terminology used today, as it incorporates global warming, along with many other topics not mentioned in global warming article. Windandsea (talk) 14:15, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

See "Archive 9" for example ... "How about the title Scientific view on global warming and current climate change, since global warming is what is happening on average globally, while climate "change" is the local temporarily current disruptions due to the on average warming (the overarching current event). As a side-note, both of those terms miss the broader scope of gases & soot (greenhouse & "forcing agents"), deforestation, mass species extinction, rising oceans (with loss of dozens of small nations predicted), drying of soil & increased rainfall intensity (degradation of agriculture, loss of potable water), ocean acidification, softening of permafrost (buildings and trees falling-over) with methane leaks from the land and lakes (even catching on fire), ocean acidification (corals dying, shell of shelled sea animals softening and the collapse of entire ecosystems), etc ... being discussed at COP-15 by the vast majority of Heads of State of the entire planet. Polar bears dying-off and glaciers melting are minor in the big scope of the trends viewed around the world." 209.255.78.138 (talk) 14:29, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

So, the guys that promoted Global warming to FA status were all wrong and misguided? It seems that WP:UCN applies here. Pcap ping 15:11, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Locked

Discussion here still seems unresolved and bitter enough to give me a strong suspicion that edit warring would have resumed, so I have locked the article until just after the RfC concludes. If anyone else would prefer to unprotect now without waiting for the discussion below, you have my endorsement as long as you monitor the article aggressively afterwards. I would like to unlock this article for the reasons below, but if necessary to prevent disruptive and tendentious editing, the article may remain in semi-stasis edited only through {{editprotected}}.

The proposed merge target for Scientific opinion on climate change#Scientific consensus is in flux; this may or may not affect that proposal, as might this diff from GoRight, above. As at least the majority of the sources used in the section are solid and arguably on-topic, this question should not require protection; perhaps it could be rewritten to avoid bullet-point style. The several renaming discussions do not at this point seem disputatious enough to require edit-protection. Adding sources documenting views of non-scientific organizations or individual scientists would be out of the scope of the current title and article scope, and so discussion can be tabled until such a time as such a move has consensus. The issue of naming and targeting redirects has some bearing on this article, but does not justify protection. The wording and links in the hatnote have been discussed ad nauseum, but seem amenable to normal editing methods. Other dispute resolution mechanisms are in place or in preparation, but resumption of normal editing should not be dependent upon them. Assuming that it survives AfD, Public opinion on climate change should probably be linked somewhere in this article; excessive protection damages the encyclopedia.

For these reasons, I plan to unprotect the article in about a day, after everyone has had a chance to read and offer feedback on this section. The basic outline of #Proposal #2 has consensus, though not unanimity. The arguments offered in the surrounding sections, some of which are now archived, offer nuance and explanation to the bare poll. The {{POV-check}} has received input here, and no contrary input at WP:CNB. The tagging project has devoted a fair bit of effort to ensuring that the templated text does not take a position one way or the other, but its fundamental purpose is to attract interested editors. This article is actively edited, and other more effective input-gathering mechanisms are in place. For these reasons and none other, I plan to remove the tag in my capacity as an administrator enacting the clearly-expressed will of involved editors; had the article not been locked, I expect that it would have been removed already (again evidence that excessive protection damages the encyclopedia). Adding any similar tag will be considered prima facie evidence of edit warring; any editor who does so will be blocked for a short period to limit disruption. Removing any similar tag will be considered prima facie evidence of edit warring; any editor who does so will be blocked for a short period to limit disruption. Every non-trivial change to the article should include in the edit summary explicit reference to consensus at a talkpage section; for example: tag removed per Talk:Scientific opinion on climate change#Proposal #2 and Talk:Scientific opinion on climate change#Locked. Editors making repeated undiscussed obviously and blatantly controversial changes will be blocked for a short period to limit disruption and edit warring. Any material that is reverted is considered controversial, and should be discussed here before being reinserted. If a relevant talkpage discussion does not yet exist, the reverting editor should start one, clearly expressing his or her concerns. It is best practice to start the section before reverting the edit, and to include a compromise proposal. Please comment and advise. - 2/0 (cont.) 20:16, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Question: For clarification, how do you advise on (as restated by me) "Take the sources to the RS notice board", "Put the IPCC Mission in for context", "May I have the next RfC?" and "This dispute may be resolved by creating a Opinions on Climate Change" article points I have raised? Finally WP:1RR should be a voluntary measure at first. Kindly Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 20:36, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Comment: I oppose the removal of the NPOV tag until the disputes have been resolved. --GoRight (talk) 22:22, 17 December 2009 (UTC) (Obligatory Statement)

Question: You mention consensus for proposal 2 above. Does this mean that 1RR is in effect, and what are the parameters around it's meaning since this was unclear the last time it was brought up? Is this WP:1RR? --GoRight (talk) 22:22, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

Question: What is the time limit, if any, associated with the adding and removing of NPOV tags? --GoRight (talk) 22:22, 17 December 2009 (UTC)

The prohibition applies only to adding or removing such a tag without first gathering consensus here; if the editors here agree that adding or removing a tag is likely to lead to article improvement, then I support that. I left the time period deliberately open-ended in the hopes that at some point in the decently near future a consensus supported by everyone will develop and we can drop all this. If, after the current kerfluffle dies down, a proposal here detailing NPOV concerns goes unanswered, adding a tag would no longer be prima facie evidence of edit warring. - 2/0 (cont.) 02:00, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

• Short version: only edit if consensus has been reached at a relevant talkpage section, referenced in the edit summary, or you are reasonably confident that other editors with whom you are collaborating will not object to the change. The latter condition applies primarily to grammatical fixes and other minor edits. If a change is reverted, follow WP:1RR and do not re-revert; instead, wait for the reverting editor to explain his or her concerns at the relevant thread here. A reverted edit should not be reinstated until such a time as consensus is reached here. - 2/0 (cont.) 02:00, 18 December 2009 (UTC)

• Unlocked. Please edit only according to clearly expressed consensus. Any edit warring will lead to blocks, as this article has been protected too long already. I intend to monitor this article as closely as I can for the next little while, but if problems develop without speedy redress, please make use of WP:ANEW and WP:RFPP. - 2/0 (cont.) 07:47, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

hatnote removal

I've reverted gavin.colin's change from the hat-note, to something that is based entirely on a single source. First of all, as we've discussed earlier, i don't believe that there is consensus for such a change. And secondly because the change is to something that is less neutral and more value-based than what we are attempting with this article... We've been through 4 AfD's where this has never been an issue - so i rather doubt gavin's interpretation of policy.

To be more specific: We are not (and should not be) taking a stand as to what the scientific opinion is, or what it means - but instead just focus on documenting what it (currently) is, per the limitations set out in the hat-note. We can't and shouldn't make statements on what individuals think or whether there is an opposition or not (unless it falls within the scope of the article), since that invariably will make us/the article take a stand, and move away from NPOV. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 10:58, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Is that because you believe the hat note represents the truth, where as reliable secondary sources do not? Don't forget that the threshold for inclusion in Misplaced Pages is verifiability, not truth. I belive that is not the consensus in Misplaced Pages, but here as well. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 11:06, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

No, it doesn't represent "truth", it represents the limits that we've agreed upon via consensus, over a long period of time. The article is entirely based upon reliable sources (to rather extreme degree even) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 11:10, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Comments on User_talk:Jaymax/SO_Hatnote#Proposed would be appreciated. ‒ Jaymax✍ 11:22, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Then if it does not represent the "truth", why would you want to lead this article with a statement that is original research? I don't see how you can base consensus on original research. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 11:26, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm not altogether happy with the change but I think it was much better than the hatnote. I think it should be put back in and people try editing it rather than going back to the hatnote. Dmcq (talk) 11:28, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

I would have to correct KimDabelsteinPetersen: there is more than one source replacing the hatnote. If there is an objection to those sources, then name then give reasons. Just because you think it is consensus, is not a valid reason. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 11:33, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Gavin, what, specifically, are you saying is OR? Can you rephrase the statement that the lead makes that you regard as OR? Is it that scientific opinion is limited to societies, or what? What I want to dig out, is whatit is that you see, that others don't - getting you to rewrite what you see may make us all go 'ahhhh' (but I'm not betting on it :) ‒ Jaymax✍ 11:44, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Since the hat note is not sourced, the statements of opinion it contains cannot be verified. It says This article is about formalized scientific opinions on climate change. What source says this? What is a "formalized" scientific opinion?
To be brutally honest, I think this hat note is not about scientific opinion at all: it is acutually acting like a sort of teritorial marker, which says this article is WP:OWNED. Lets face it, "formalized" scientific opinion is too vague a concept to be meaningful. It is a sort of code, along the lines of "formalized" scientific opinion = Truth™. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 12:26, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

For the record, I just changed official to formalised. Again, how can you source a statement that says 'this article is about ...' - it is illogical. There may be an implicit statement that should be sourced, but, just as it's impossible to source a statement that says "This article is about the bow used to play a string instrument.", it is impossible to source a statement stating what any article is about. You need to clarify a specific implicit or explicit statement that is not self-referential to the article, that is contained in the lead. ‒ Jaymax✍ 12:37, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

It is possible. If a reliable secondary source that is independent addresses the subject matter of the article topic directly and in detail, it effectively defines the topic. Look at lead of the article Accountancy for example. It does not say "This article is about...", it simply discusses the subject matter without having to resort to original research. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 12:43, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

"formalized" scientific opinion = Truth™ is/was not my intent. And I agree it's vague. Aristotle apparently listed (paraphrasing some guy named Otfried Höffe) the weighting criteria for deciding controversy as "wide distribution, a certain amount of justification, venerable age, and the support of recognized authorities". Considering the first and last of those is what gives us 'formalised'; the second of course gives us 'scientific'. ‒ Jaymax✍ 12:51, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

'This article is about ... ' is standard wikipedia disambiguation template text intended to assist people who might come to an article expecting to find something different. ‒ Jaymax✍ 12:51, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

There is nothing "standard" about the hat note as it stands. It attempts to define the article's subject matter, without providing any verifiable source for that definition, and because of that, it will always open to challenge in accordance with WP:BURDEN. It may say what you want it to say, but regardless of whether your opinion is right or wrong, it is your statement of opinion. Whether your opinion is correct, a matter fact, the truth or divine revelation, I cannot judge. But if I replace the hat note with significant coverage from a reliable secondary source that can be verified, it may not be perfect by any means, but at least it can be verified in accordance with Misplaced Pages policy. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 13:10, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

What is my 'statement of opinion'? What the article is about? Is the hatnote at article Bow_(music) a statement of opinion? I am really trying to work out what you're getting at here. ‒ Jaymax✍ 13:26, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Your statement that this article is about formalized scientific opinions on climate change is a matter of opinion. What is "formalized" scientific opinion anyway? Does it involve scientists wearing suits & ties, as opposed to white coats and protective goggles? You do realise that "formalized science" is not defined anywhere in Misplaced Pages, let alone "formalized sccientific opinion". What is your source for this statement? --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 13:58, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Not still on about this, are you Gavin? I have been through this, at length, with you on your own arguing this exact point, for days, and so have others here. An article's title and its hat note do not need a citable source: As long as there's enough verifiable and cited material to make an article, and the title and hat note describe the content of the article, that's it. It's a sub-article of one aspect of a bigger subject. You're going to have to think of something else to debate with us here, as we can't all just keep debating this forever with you alone. --Nigelj (talk) 14:24, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm done as well, I have made a genuinely good faith attempt to understand your issue, but I have failed. And all my attempts to reference other examples, so that perhaps an analogy or comparison might, perhaps, enlighten one of us, by some difference or similarity, have gone un-addressed. ‒ Jaymax✍ 14:42, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

My parting gift Google "formal opinion" ‒ Jaymax✍ 14:44, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Forgive me for labouring the point, but whilst an article's title and its hat note do not need a citable source, they can't exist simply as a hook on which to hang original reasearch. Whilst the term "formal opinion" may appear in a Google Search, the fact that does not make it any less the opinion of Jaymax as to how this article is defined.
Misplaced Pages:Reliable sources states that "Articles should rely on reliable, third-party, published sources with a reputation for fact-checking and accuracy. This means that we only publish the opinions of reliable authors, and not the opinions of Wikipedians who have read and interpreted primary source material for themselves".
Since there is consistent disagreement about the title or the scope of article (even the third opinion seems to have his own personal view on the matter), it seems to me that if a "Scientific opinion on climate change" has received significant coverage in reliable secondary sources that are independent of the subject, you would want to cite those sources as the start of this article so that it is clear that the article satisfies the inclusion criteria for a standalone article.
Maybe there have been so many title and content disuputes about the article (not to deletion nominations), perhaps any change seems threatening, but I would have thought the addition of high quality sources would be the least of your worries and would actually contribute to resolving all these disuputes. I am not sure how you are going to make any progress without good sourcing. --Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 15:47, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

We are relying on reliable third-party published sources, and it is rather hard to think of organizations with higher reputations for fact-checking and accuracy. And we aren't relying on "opinions of Wikipedians" - in fact we are doing so less than most other articles, since we are including every reference that falls within the scope of the article. Your "consistent disagreement" is rather overstated, and seems to be the opinion of a minority of editors. We have been through 4 AfD's which indicate that notability certainly isn't the problem (all with a very clear consensus for keep). Can we please stop beating on this dead horse? --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:05, 19 December 2009 (UTC) Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:07, 19 December 2009 (UTC)]

I think it is fair to say that this article contains lots of reliable, third party sources, but there is still a problem with the key lead section, in that neither the lead not the hat note address the subject matter of this article topic directly or in detail, nor without resorting to original research. If you have a better proposal for the lead, bring it on. However, a hat note based on the opinions of Jaymax, is not as good as reliable, third part sources, I think you will agree.
Until earlier today another version of the unsourced hat note existed. Now there is another one. It seems to me that opinion is cheap, and is likely to be changed every time someone takes a dislike to it. If sourced coverage is the currency that buys credibility for an article topic, I would have thought reliable, third party sources that address the articles subject matter directly and in detail are the gold standard which we should all be working towards.
WP:OR says "Citing sources and avoiding original research are inextricably linked. To demonstrate that you are not presenting original research, you must cite reliable sources that are directly related to the topic of the article, and that directly support the information as it is presented". So in answer to KimDabelsteinPetersen, it is not a deadhorse that I am flogging, I am merely arguing in favour of applying the three core content policies that determine the type and quality of material that is acceptable in articles.
So far, Jaymax has argued that a Google search is sufficient to justify having the current hat note in the lead section, but I don't think that arguement is worth much in terms of currency that buys credibility. Restore the sourced material and lets take it from there as Dmcq recomends.--Gavin Collins (talk|contribs) 17:31, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Third Opinion

I have never seen this article before and am responding to the request for a third opinion.

The article was much better without the changes to the lead from Gavin Collins. Those changes miss the point of what the article is about. However, I think it would help if the name of the article was changed so that it better reflected what it is about. I suggest Collective scientific opinion on climate change.

Yaris678 (talk) 12:19, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

It is difficult okay. I'm not keen on the formal or collective because it is simply scientific opinion and all the individuals dissenters are not represented because of WP:WEIGHT rather than by the definition that removes them in the leader. However without such a word in people will keep arguing for inclusion of all sorts of things that more properly belong in an article like global warming controversy or climate change consensus. Dmcq (talk) 12:35, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

Though i do appreciate the input from Yaris678 - I've removed the WP:3O tag, since there are significantly more than 2 editors disagreeing on this. The correct venue for getting extra input would be an RfC. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 13:06, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

GC, I can't say I'm surprised that you unilaterally changed the hat-note. Please refer to 2/0's comments in an above thread:

Short version: only edit if consensus has been reached at a relevant talkpage section, referenced in the edit summary, or you are reasonably confident that other editors with whom you are collaborating will not object to the change.

Did you not read that or do you not care? I oppose the change. What consensus have you built? Please address the question instead of launching into another diatribe which will just cause me to repost the section on Tenditious Editing. Airborne84 (talk) 00:56, 20 December 2009 (UTC)

I know Jaymax was making a good faith effort, but I think all (or at least most) of us can agree that we don't need a modifier like "formal" or "official". Although those may be accurate descriptions of the position statements, they're not quite right for the synthesis reports, and they certainly don't work for the surveys. So, can we at least agree on removing the word "formal"? --CurtisSwain (talk) 08:06, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

I've got no objection to it's removal. ‒ Jaymax✍ 08:33, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Done.--CurtisSwain (talk) 23:19, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

That's good. Now, I have a worry about the use of the plural "scientific opinions on climate change" in the hat-note. I think there is a subtle difference between this and the title of the article, "scientific opinion on climate change", One includes the possibility of everyone's scientific opinions, but the other, the subject of the article, is about the collective opinion of science itself, of the body scientific. I think we should lose that s. --Nigelj (talk) 15:10, 23 December 2009 (UTC)

Singularized it like the title (there's a new word) Dmcq (talk) 16:24, 23 December 2009 (UTC)

http://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=singularize

But anyway, I think it should be plural here - The article reflects scientific opinion, by collecting scientific opinions according to criteria intended to ensure they are representative. (See new section below). I think it's right that the lead introduces the plural opinions that we collate. ‒ Jaymax✍ 09:52, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Peer review

A peer review has been requested for this article at Misplaced Pages:Peer review/Scientific opinion on climate change/archive1. Since this seems to be an article that is subject to a lot of disputed edits, is it stable enough for a peer review? Ruhrfisch _><>° 22:24, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

It has only just come off protection William M. Connolley (talk) 22:36, 19 December 2009 (UTC)

add IPCC context and mission per talk?

I've just removed this . ZP5 added it with an edit comment of add IPCC context and mission per talk but I don't see the consensus to add it. Per what talk? William M. Connolley (talk) 12:48, 20 December 2009 (UTC)

To be clear: this article isn't the IPCC opinion on climate change, and although that has been suggested often it has been rejected often. So over-emphasis on the IPCC in the lead is wrong William M. Connolley (talk) 12:49, 20 December 2009 (UTC)

To de-emphasise the IPCC in the lead, we need a different strong source for the statement of consensus. If IPCC continues to be used as the 'starting point' for separating the article into 'concurring' and 'dissenting' then it's not so terribly wrong to give the context in the lead as well - But it would be better to move most reference to the IPCC in the lead into it's Synthesis Report section? ‒ Jaymax✍ 00:22, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't see why you need a different strong source. I don't think you will find a better source - unless WMC knows different? However, if you want to de-emphasize the IPCC in the lede, then there is still no need for any citations other than the IPCC report itself. How many climatologists' work is outside IPCC remit? Anyway, the sources in the article itself back up that the majority claim. DHooke1973 (talk) 01:59, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

The IPCC is just an assessment of the state of the science, just as the Climate Change Science Program (now USGCRP again). It is the assessment that is most used in this context, but not the only one. If you compare the USGCRP and the IPCC reports they say must the same thing. So the emphasis on the IPCC is understandable, but misleading. And a description of the IPCC seem quite off topic here (thats what wikilinks are for). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:51, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Thanks for talking WMC. This article is lead by the IPCC statements, the IPCC mission provides context for these statements. .... KPD ... "A description of the IPCC seem quite off topic here" ... Folks progress in this article is continues to be obstructed by uncompromising editors who insist they must define the article POV. How unreasonable is it to have a simple sentence stating the IPCC mission? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 14:21, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Anyone who wants to see what the IPCC is about can follow the link. It's not necessary to duplicate this material in every article that mentions the IPCC (or any of the other organizations in the article for that matter). Oh, and calling everyone who disagrees with you "uncompromising" and "unreasonable" really isn't in the Christmas spirit. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:35, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

It's reasonable to have greater context then a link. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 14:37, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

It is off-topic/unreasonable here because this article has nothing to do with the mission of the IPCC (or the IPCC), thats something that can (and is) described in-depth at the IPCC wiki-article which is linked. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 14:43, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Get real KDP ... this article would not exist but for the IPCC mission and statements. And it should be included for context. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 16:15, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

It is very likely that an article such as this would exist without the IPCC mission and statements, since the science still would say the same thing (the IPCC still doesn't do science - it assesses the state of the science). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:25, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

KDP, I find your arguments to be approaching Absurdism, while is a strict sense the IPCC mission may not be the logical subject of this article. In all good faith to wiki humanity ... the IPCC mission is relevant, notable and sourced for inclusion here. Please show faith and allow a compromise so we may move forward. I've added the IPCC mission to the IPCC section. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 16:32, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

We were told not to do any edits here without consensus, and you clearly haven't got a consensus. So i've reverted it. I've already told you my objections (as have several others)... Calling them absurd is not really getting us anywhere does it? --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:49, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Where would you like to go with this, KDP? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 16:51, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Zp5 has made two more changes that clearly lack consenus. I've notified 2/0 William M. Connolley (talk) 15:17, 21 December 2009(UTC)

See WP:BRD please. Now discuss your revert, WMD. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk)

I think that has already been done. Article is not about IPCC. Science would be the same without the IPCC.

IPCC are a strong and reliable source, but that does not mean the lede need bother explaining who the IPCC are. DHooke1973 (talk) 16:35, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Please see my point above about Absurdism.Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk)

There's hyperlinks to them and a bit t the top of the section saying see the article for more about them. The name itself is also pretty self-explanatory so I really don't see why more needs to be said about them here. One of the big advantages of WIkipedia over a conventional encyclopaedia is how much easier it is to click on a link and find the associated information. Dmcq (talk) 16:52, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Links are fine however, this issue requires not to cite the IPCC 'out of context'. Since the IPCC mission takes on a discourse and convention, as to its object of analysis. Reasonable context for the statements will occur when the IPCC statements are placed in their mutual coherence relationship between the statements and mission. Without the mission the IPCC statements may be interpreted incoherently. I've seen evidence for this in wiki. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 17:03, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

I saw your point about Absurdism, and it's the same as your current point about Absurdism. That is, it isn't a point, it's an unsupported assertion.

What Dmcq said about links.

"Since the IPCC mission takes on a discourse and convention, as to its object of analysis" is not especially coherent.

DHooke1973 (talk) 17:32, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

(outdent) I don't see why the context is needed and it seems out of place in the main text, but as it is my wont to compromise, would others agree that the cited mission of the IPCC be given between "ref" tags as a footnote to the first mention of the organization? Awickert (talk) 17:17, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Per WP:silence I am about to proceed with Awickert's proposed compromise to foot note the IPCC mission. The issue could be better addressed in the main text, however footnote is ok with me now to move on. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 04:20, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

→ I have blocked ZuluPapa5 (talk · contribs · deleted contribs · logs · filter log · block user · block log) for 31 hours for edit warring. Please do not let this affect this discussion if it is productive. Please also remember to discuss potentially controversial changes here first, point to the relevant consensus in the edit summary, and do not re-revert or otherwise edit war. - 2/0 (cont.) 17:29, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Scientific Opinion linking to Opinion

I reverted an edit that removed the wikilink to Opinion. Scientific opinion should have it's own article. Any good writers want to volunteer to author one? (I've been collecting useful source material at User:Jaymax/Scientific_Opinion). ‒ Jaymax✍ 09:36, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

Mea culpa. You're quite right. It's the opinion article that was the problem, not the link. - DHooke1973 (talk) 09:43, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

I have created the discussion page on Jaymax's article: . --GoRight (talk) 17:21, 21 December 2009 (UTC)

American Geophysical Union article

• "Recently a major study in the American Geophysical Union's official publication, the Journal of Geophysical Research, supported earlier research in concluding that least 80 percent and perhaps far more of the observed warming over the past half-century is natural. Factors well beyond our control, such as cloud cover... matter far more than we do. " • Ling.Nut 09:00, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

Individual studies like that go into Climate change consensus. Dmcq (talk) 11:51, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

Perhaps, and without all the gratuitous puffery. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 15:16, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

What criteria are you applying Dmcq, to direct this scientific opinion? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 15:47, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

In summarising the breadth of scientific opinion it's inappropriate to concentrate on a single paper presenting a minority opinion. --TS 16:49, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

That's basically it. Individual studies just don't cut it in the weight department for an article like this when measured against the statements of the scientific societies. The article Climate change consensus deals with the wider business of the public perception of whether there is a scientific consensus and so if the study has been used in any notable way in that debate it certainly should feature there. It might also be used in a more specific article about the subject of the study. Dmcq (talk) 21:31, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

I believe this is the article being discussed. It appears to have been published in July of this year. Like any scientific article, its level of legitimacy and significance will be determined by how well it's received by the scientific community. Either the consensus article or the main Global warming article may eventually be the right place for it if it proves its worth. --CurtisSwain (talk) 23:16, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm no climate scientist but on a quick read of that it's clear to me that it is only the first step in showing anything meaningful about climate change. Fora start no explanation is given of why the Southern Oscillation does what it does so there is no strong implication one way or the other in the correlation. It needs a lot more digestion and comment before people can conclude anything from it. Dmcq (talk) 23:47, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

The article's main point is that there is a correlation between ENSO and global mean tropospheric temperature, to which anyone conversant in climatology would respond "well, duh." The article also contains lots of errors, such as the assertion that climate models don't include ENSO. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:52, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

Maybe I am inappropriate, but sounds like folks are saying this source carries no weight, therefor "scientific opinion" criteria are irrelevant? That would be worth reconsidering. Does anyone have faith it can be properly attributed? Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 06:46, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

Can WHAT be "properly attributed"??--CurtisSwain (talk) 09:03, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

I'm not saying it carries no weight at all. I'm saying the weight is too small for an article like this which lists things like scientific societies and synthesis views. Individual scientific papers contribute to an opinion, they don't describe the opinion. Dmcq (talk) 09:47, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

A paper in a journal is a statement of the scientific opinions of the individual authors, and excluded as such according to our current criteria. If the criteria allowed for this paper, we would have to include every other paper. I see this as potentially a good _example_ of the lack of unanimity, in the presence of strong consensus, at Climate change controversy#Scientific community. ‒ Jaymax✍ 09:54, 25 December 2009 (UTC)

Scientific opinion on climate change is ...

Para 1 currently reads "Scientific opinion on climate change is given by synthesis reports, scientific bodies of national or international standing, and surveys of opinion among climate scientists. This does not include the views of individual scientists, individual universities, or laboratories, nor self-selected lists of individuals such as petitions."

We need an adjective to make it make sense, because "Scientific opinion on climate change" DOES "include the views of individual" - it is the article which doesn't, and I think we can do better that be arbitrary. We need a word that distinguishes what makes polls, synthesis, and organisations from individuals to make that para true. Someone chucked in 'official'; I tweaked that to 'formalised' to make it slightly broader, and Curtis rightly removed it. But what IS it that distinguishes the opinions we collect here, is it that they are "representative"? Is there a better word? What is the fundamental reason we distinguish between the two, and can we get it defined in a word (or two?)

We can all see it, all define it in a paragraph, and it is an obvious inference for the great majority of visitors to the article. But 'obvious inference for most' doesn't feel very encyclopaedic - and yes I know the bolding indicates the statment is about the article, but still...

‒ Jaymax✍ 09:48, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I think that is mainly there for the various climate change sceptics who want to insert their dissenting opinions. They take a paper by some scientist who finds problems with some aspect of climate change and turn it into a dissenting scientific opinion. As to the specifics, why do you say scientific opinion includes the views of individuals? As normally understood it doesn't as far as I'm aware except when one goes deep down to find the strength of the opinion. For instance with evolution I'm sure it is possible to find some scientists who'll say earth was created 5000 years ago and men and dinosaurs walked on it together in harmony, but that is not scientific opinion by any stretch of the imagination. Dmcq (talk) 12:38, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

As I understand it, a scientific opinion is any opinion formed scientifically, whether held by an individual or formalised in an organisational opinion paper. This 'specific' is key. See User:Jaymax/Scientific_opinion/Refs - Polanyi, who has had much to say about Scientific Opinion, said: "Scientific opinion itself cannot be said to exist except as the opinions expressed by person, who are recognized as scientists." - If you can find a ref that defines scientific opinion to exclude individual scientist's scientifically formed opinions, I'll be delighted to add it to my list! ‒ Jaymax✍ 13:20, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

So you quote the author of 'Life's irreducible structure'. Well I can easily see them rejecting anything like scientific opinion as an overall concept. Possibly consensus view or something like that would be better as a title but if you really wish to reject the idea of scientific opinion as used by this article you should try changing the consensus at the Opinion article first. How would you characterize the standing of evolution as opposed to irreducible complexity or suchlike? Dmcq (talk) 14:16, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I thought this was getting nailed by "Scientific opinion can be used either as a count noun or as a mass noun" et seq (User:Jaymax/Scientific opinion#Scientific opinion). After that is it not simply a matter of linguistics? We have "a scientific opinion" as Jaymax defines above (anybody's); "scientific opinions" - lots of the same, still relatively meaningless; finally we have "scientific opinion" itself - the collective opinion of the body scientific. It is the latter that forms public opinion and policy, puts men on the moon, and that is taught in schools and in universities etc., that usually stands for centuries before being tweaked, and very rarely overthrown by something bigger and broader. What does Thomas Kuhn have to say about this in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions? Lots of relevant stuff about paradigms and consensus (I don't have a copy), maybe not the exact pairing "scientific opinion" followed by a neat definition, but I think our anti-scientific friends here are scraping the barrel when they say that they contest that there is any such thing until we can prove that there is. --Nigelj (talk) 14:43, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Dmcq: "you really wish to reject the idea of scientific opinion as used by this article" I do NOT want to reject the idea of scientific opinion as used here, and I WROTE the definition at opinion. What we have here is an article that addresses the collective mass-noun scientific opinion, by listing 50+ representative count-noun scientific opinions, from polling of individuals, from societies (of individuals), from synthesis (of papers written by individuals). Regarding scientific opinion as an overall concept: you really should check out those refs. Polanyi doesn't reject it, he not only embraces it, he puts it on a huge pedestal. ‒ Jaymax✍ 22:12, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Well thanks for that opinion article as it has saved some arguments here. I don't see what your problem is, societies are not the same as a collection of individuals because they come to consensus decisions. You may have written that bit in the opinion article but it would be reverted or changed without consensus. It is no longer purely what an individual wrote. Dmcq (talk) 22:39, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Exactly. Societies published opinions ARE different to individual's opinions, and carry much greater weight. All I'm saying, is that the fact should be touched upon in the lead, perhaps by inserting a word '____ scientific opinion on climate change is', which summates WHY we don't list individual's scientific opinions, and makes sense leading into the second sentence. ‒ Jaymax✍ 23:03, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I would use the term "collective scientific opinion" for now, as I suggested at 12:19 on 19 December. If we can write a decent article on "scientific opinion", which clarifies this issue (and is in article space, not a user sub-page) then maybe we can revisit the issue. Yaris678 (talk) 21:51, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

Is the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) actually a part of The Heartland Institute or how is it funded does anyone know? Dmcq (talk) 19:17, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't think it needs any regular funding, since it's not an ongoing organization with a staff. Heartland and others fund its meeting(s). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:42, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

See also International Conference on Climate Change from which the NIPCC sprang.--CurtisSwain (talk) 19:45, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

I guess also being funded by Heartland doesn't automatically make an organization non-scientific though it might instill doubts. The major reason I'd say it wasn't a scientific body is that it was set up specifically with a point of view and the people who join it are selecting themselves as being biased that way. In science one aught not start off with ones conclusions. Dmcq (talk) 19:48, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

It makes it not of 'national or international standing', so WP:UNDUE here. --Nigelj (talk) 20:33, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

The funding of an organization, although relevant, should not be the criteria for deciding whether it is scientific in nature or not. The important thing is the method: it uses reviewed and published data and studies, discloses its methods and opens its results for criticism. Science is about intellectual openess, curiosity and honesty. I have seen no explanation of undoing my edits, aside from the NIPCC being "un-scientific", without further explanation of this claim.

Yes, the NIPCC was set up because they had some doubts about anthropogenic climate change, and it is not hiding it. Its just the same way that the IPCC was set up because they supposed something was going on.

"National or international standing" is a convenient way to discard a non-governmental organization which you may not agree with. Julien Couvreur (talk) 20:40, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Is there any evidence that it is a scientific organization? (aside from assertion of the NIPCC/Heartland? (who are the members?)) Do we have any indication that it has had any impact on the scientific opinion? In fact: Is there any indication that it is taken seriously from a scientific point of view? (my answers would be: No, No and No. - but please show that i'm wrong) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:32, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

It was not set up in the same way as the IPCC. If the IPCC was set up that way it would start with the result that there was global warming and the people in it would be self selected for their bias that way. There's a big difference between the scientific method and people with an agenda. And yes it isn't an organization of anywhere near the same calibre as the various scientific societies listed in the article. Dmcq (talk) 21:32, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

It is good to see that governments and politicians don't have bias. In that sense, the IPCC is less scientific than the NIPCC. Also, the "self-selection" argument is unconvincing, as any researcher working on a topic is self-selected. 01:30, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

In this case, as far as I'm aware, NIPCC's influence is not of international scale. It might have influenced, possibly, a now defunct American government. It now influences no government of which I'm aware, it has no influence on the science because it doesn't summarise the peer reviewed literature in the same way IPCC does. It exists solely, as does Heartland, to sow Fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) on well settled science that threatens its interests. --TS 20:54, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

What is the criteria of "influence" have to do with deciding if a piece of work is scientific or not? Similarly, whether an issue is supposedly settled is orthogonal to whether some work is scientific. Julien Couvreur (talk) 01:30, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

I don't think it is clear that the NIPCC even exists, in a meaningful sense. It looks to me like Singer and a few cronies, presumably with someone else ghostwriting the docs. What JC says above is pertinent: its methods are unclear, it avoids the P-R literature, its reports are not open for review before publication, it is dishonest William M. Connolley (talk) 21:25, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

As far as I can tell, no author takes responsibiliy for any chapter - it's a collective work (or, more likely, the work of the two listed Heartland editors pasting together the standard sceptics arguments). 20% or so is a list of (alleged) signatories of the discredited OSIM petition. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:24, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

This is a summary report which does put together all the critiques of the IPCC report in one consistent volume. Each chapter provides detailed references for the sources, with individual authors. Richard Lindzen was apparently good enough to contribute the IPCC report (as lead author for one chapter), so he presumably is good enough to criticize it too (both the analysis, results and the process). Julien Couvreur (talk) 01:30, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

The report is listed here as a synthesis report, but going by the list of references (last page of the preface there's no way it qualifies as one. ‒ Jaymax✍ 22:54, 27 December 2009 (UTC)

Do you care to clarify your point? Maybe read chapter 1... Julien Couvreur (talk) 01:30, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

(e/c) Fair enough - for the benefit of others: it appears each section is followed by numerous journal references. ‒ Jaymax✍ 01:50, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

I guess I have a problem considering a group of individuals gathered together to deliver a predetermined result (the NIPCC), to be a scientific process - regardless of the credentials of the people involved. Am I missing something? Airborne84 (talk) 01:41, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

While I have the same problem, I think we'd need some very strong independent secondary source to state authoritatively that the outcome was truly pre-determined. It'd have to establish that there was zero possibility of the prior opinion of the authors being unchanged in the presentation of the report. And I don't see how that can be established. ‒ Jaymax✍ 01:50, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

A discussion about the membership self-selection bias in both the IPCC and NIPCC could benefit from reliable sources. Is there any source to distinguish or discuss these? It might even be worthy of a paragraph or section in the article for specific context to how the "scientific opinion(s)" were formed. Self-selection bias is a relevant and valid scientific topic along with many others in List_of_cognitive_biases. Specific sources should lead the way.Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 03:36, 28 December 2009 (UTC)

1. Stephen J. Farnsworth & Samuel Robert Lichter: The Structure of Evolving US Scientific Opinion on Climate Change and its Potential Consequences, American Political Science Association, Toronto. September 2009, p.3
2. Stephen J. Farnsworth & Samuel Robert Lichter: The Structure of Evolving US Scientific Opinion on Climate Change and its Potential Consequences, American Political Science Association, Toronto. September 2009, p.4

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