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faq page Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change? A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists. See also: Scientific consensus on climate change Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place? A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)." Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans? A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics, including academically trained ones, they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives: Current human emissions of CO2 are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions. This is easily seen in a graph of CO2 concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend. Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels. Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels. If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic). Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it? A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated? A5: Two reasons: There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly. However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations. Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import. Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"? A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2? A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles. See also: Clathrate gun hypothesis and Arctic methane release Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled? A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change. This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998? A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998. More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out; thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement? A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name." Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD. While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference: A map of the Eastern Settlement A satellite image of that area today A map of the Western Settlement A satellite image of that area today A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists? A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years? A12: Measurements show that it has not. Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts. Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. See also: Arctic sea ice decline See also: Antarctic sea ice § Recent trends and climate change Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming? A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming. The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975. (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.) The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming. Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect? A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change. Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. See also: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)? A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming. A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars. Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'" There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change. This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices. Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates. Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Misplaced Pages's own article. See also: Climate of Mars and Extraterrestrial atmosphere Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money? A16: No, Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses. Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work. There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming. Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data. Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist. Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity? A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe? A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important? A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities. Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change. Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby? A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...? A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Misplaced Pages is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Misplaced Pages is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before? A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays? A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment: Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires: Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation, These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN), The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and Cloud cover on Earth must be declining. Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step." Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true? A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References ^ Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020. ^ "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020. Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help) Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009. Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009. Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009. "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007. Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467. The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012. "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009. Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017. The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða. "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009. Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64. Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek. Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008. Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007. Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes. Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN. "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011. Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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How well does theoretical predictions match real data?

I have read several comments here, saying: "this article is about the science", those are absurd comments because if those making the comments had any scientific training and thought for even a few seconds they would quickly realise that the heart of science is the validation of hypothesis by testing whether they predict real data. So obviously one of the key questions that needs to be answered in a scientific article is how well the theory of manmade warming predicts actual data. As far as I am aware there have been very few actual predictions so it should be very easy to list these and give some indication of whether the real data tends to validate or invalidate those predictions. In particular, the 2001 report suggested warming of between 1.4-5.8C in the next century. How well does that fit actual temperatures? Don't the Met Office produce yearly global temperature predictions based on the theory of global warming? How well do these theory based predictions predict actual climatic change? Or to put that in reverse, how valid is the theory based on actual data and not the votes of researchers?

Come on this is supposed to be a science article, so please can we see a bit of real science! Is the theory supported by the data or is it not? 88.110.2.122 (talk) 22:51, 23 February 2010 (UTC)

You hit on one of the topics of interest to me. I agree that you've identified a critical issue - what did the climate models predict, not just means but 95% confidence intervals, and how did actual results turn out? Of course, even if actual results over the last 20 years, for example, are outside the confidence band of a model prediction from 20 years ago, it would call into question the models of 20 years ago, not the current models. I think many climate scientists would happily tell you that the climate models have improved materially over the last 20 years.

Still, while I've seen some evidence along these lines, I haven't seen as formal or complete a study as I would like. If someone is aware of such studies, I'd love to see them.

I trust you are aware our task is to find the studies, not create them.--SPhilbrickT 02:13, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

It is also our role to make facts known even if the professionals in a field have acted in concert to try to hide these facts. It's pretty obvious why those in this field would not wish their predictions to be subject to the glare of publicity and we know from the climategate emails that they have had very much a stranglehold on the dissemination of information on this subject. We either have to treat this subject as a science, and ensure that what we say in the article is backed up by real data, OR we have to accept that this subject cannot be treated as a science and we have to allow in political comment. You can't have it both ways. You can't demand it is a science and then rely on information from people who clearly acted in a political way without much scientific integrity. Most of the predictions are public, the assessment of those predictions can be done by anyone with a calculator, this is not rocket science, and so if we are to maintain this is a scientific article, we must be able to demonstrate the validity or otherwise of the core scientific predictions. Otherwise it isn't science! Isonomia (talk) 12:07, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Ah, but if there's an international conspiracy to hide the facts, how will you know what The Real Facts are, and who was behind the grassy knoll. Science can make long term (30 years as FAQ 3) projections without making short term predictions, political paranoia and misinformation isn't science. . . dave souza, talk 17:23, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Right now I'm reading Hansen et al. Presented predictions in 1988, three scenarios, and published findings in 2006. The second scenario, and regarded as the most plausible, predicted a .19°C per decade increase, which fits the observed 0.19–0.21°C. I'm not sure if this answers your question though. Have you read the FAQ? I think parts of your question can be answered by Q3 and Q8. You seem to be more interested in statistics though, not climate models, and I think I might have some studies there. What do you think? ChyranandChloe (talk) 06:16, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

According to this SciAm report from the AAAS meeting, the IPCC predictions have been conservative. Of course, since climate us usually measured over 30 year periods, we only now reach the first such period since the first IPCC report. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 06:48, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Phil Jones of the Climate Research Unit is saying the warming is only 0.12°C per decade, but even that is "not significant at the 95% significance level". You can read this at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm Phermion (talk) 06:59, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

I think Hansen et al 2006 identified by ChyranandChloe seems pretty close to this question, but that paper is about really old models (which are all that can be really evaluated). The paper does say that "Close agreement of observed temperature change with simulations for the most realistic climate forcing (scenario B) is accidental ... moderate overestimate of global warming is likely because the sensitivity of the model used (12), 4.2°C for doubled CO2, is larger than our current estimate for actual climate sensitivity, which is 3.1°C for doubled CO2, based mainly on paleoclimate data (17)". The actual IPCC WG1 report, published in 2007, should have something on this; for example, Box TS.7 on page 59-60 (PDF page 41/74). The end of that box does say that no "metrics" measuring accuracy have been proven. Also see 62 for the historical fit comparing anthropogenic + natural to natural only. This is possibly something that can be discussed at Global climate model. I also find the Global_warming#Climate_models section a bit difficult to read; the style is a bit technical and circumlocutious. Also, it should be clear that testing the fit of models to observations is not something that should be done on a year-by-year basis - the IPCC has been clear that they aren't about predicting next year's temperatures but rather next decades temperatures. II | (t - c) 07:40, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

The question you raise is an interesting one, but unless you can show that it is actively discussed in the literature, it isn't relevant here. This isn't usenet. FWIW, my answer would be that the kind of verification you're looking for requires a long time to have passed, and it hasn't, which is why there isn't much work on it William M. Connolley (talk) 09:00, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Global warming/climate change is really an article about the science of predicting the climate. Estimates of the effect of CO2 have been made for some time. I've no problem listing early predictions to show that the 20th century showed a period of warming in line with early predictions - except I've never seen these predictions listed. It is said climate science really started in the 1970s, but the first prediction with a scientifically testable range was in 2001 in the IPCC report. 9 years isn't nearly enough to validate this prediction which was for 2100, but it does show how much the climate would need to warm in order to be within the range. This is basic science, you create a hypothesis, you use that to make predictions, and then you see how well it matches real data. There may be earlier predictions, which better match the global temperature trend, there certainly are later ones with even less of a time-period. All I want to see is a scientific article respecting the normal standards of science - data and theory must be compared to determine validity of the theory! Isonomia (talk) 12:23, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Global warming/climate change is really an article about the science of predicting the climate. No it isn't. Why would you think otherwise? One technique you could try is to read the article. You'd discover that large parts of it are about understanding past change William M. Connolley (talk) 12:55, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

• Isn't this a misnomer? My limited understanding is that the models produce projections, not predictions. If the various factors differ from the assumptions in the model, as in a change in the rate of methane being put into the atmosphere, the model succeeds if it works with the new data, regardless of whether or not it worked as a "prediction". Goes back to read my tealeaves. . . dave souza, talk 17:04, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

If you don't really know about statistics and models, why are you commenting? Models produce predicted values (look for the word predicted, for example, in regression analysis). If the model accidentally succeeds, as Hansen et al say the earlier models did, then the models did not really succeed, and they need to be adjusted. The difference between "prediction" and "projection" seems like semantics. II | (t - c) 17:29, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Different fields use different terminology. Climate models predict certain outcomes under given assumptions. Emission scenarios, for example, are not part of climate models, but are input. Thus, to evaluate the climate model, you first have to look if these assumptions have been met. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:38, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

(e/c)(e/c)I think you should just look at a scientific model as a collection of relationships between different factors, and an estimate of what those relationships are (plus or minus uncertainty). The fact that such a model produces a prediction is what allows the scientific method to work. Oftentimes a model is reported in the media as if it has a single magic number it predicts (global mean temperature deviation, for example) but the real goal is to have the correct relationship between different factors and the least uncertainty in the estimates. So for example, a global warming model which included as an input the fish yield in Argentina, but which offset it exactly with the influence of strikeouts in major league baseball regular season would be considered worse because it is a pathological nonsense relationship. The short version is that there are lots of ways to evaluate a scientific model. The conditional valuation of "if we had known how much methane would be produced, what would the warming be?" is one of the ways to evaluate it. Sorry if that was a little long winded, I kind of love science. Ignignot (talk) 17:49, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Climate Projections. Just sayin', dave souza, talk 19:26, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

it is a synonym. There are a few things going on with your example: if the model would perform correctly (by correctly predicting the temperature deviation) given the methane being put into the atmosphere it doesn't necessarily mean the model was good - in particular, there are feedback mechanisms between methane and warming. If it gets warmer, you get more methane, and if you get more methane, it gets warmer. If you fix your methane input, you are in effect breaking part of your model: the feedback mechanism. You're saying that part of the model doesn't work correctly. Maybe that's ok, and better than other models which have other shortcomings, as all models do in science. As they say, we know the model is wrong, but the question is, is it useful? Ignignot (talk) 19:37, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

All the models predictions have been wrong, for instance Look at page 107 Says less snowfall, we have had more snow in the NH than we have had for years, none of the models of course predicted this, nor did they predict the current cooling period the planet is going through mark nutley (talk) 20:09, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Learn to tell weather from climate. Hint: there are two different words which have different definitions; it is often that way William M. Connolley (talk) 20:30, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

How peculiar, given AGW proponents are currently saying the current snowstorms are because of AGW. However, as stated none of the models predicted the current cooling phase did they? mark nutley (talk) 21:09, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Climatologically, there is no cooling phase. You really do need to learn to tell weathr from climate if you're not going to embarass yourself any more William M. Connolley (talk) 21:16, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Mark, snow cover is falling in the Northern hemisphere, you really do need to learn the difference between weather and climate (as WMC says). Here is the raw data and here is a plot of it - you also (in the above) need to differentiate between regional, hemispheric and global. And finally you need to differentiate between scientists and bloggers, and learn that "AGW proponents" (whatever that means) aren't a group - individuals can be as wrong as anyone, and often are (which Romm was here). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:28, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

(edit conflict)

William, play nicely :) Kim according to Rutgers University Global Snow Lab snow cover extent is in fact increasing. Since 81 it has gone up about 5% mark nutley (talk) 21:52, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Sorry Mark, but the plot of the averaged NH figures from Rutgers show the same: File:NH-snow.jpg

Kim, just reading that chron.com piece should be enough to convince all our enthusiastic amateur climatologists here, and elsewhere, that climate science is not easy to join in with. That's why it's hard to lie in bed at night and come up with a new good reason why global warming isn't happening - because decades of hard thinking by a lot of very smart people already went into it before the IPCC was even formed. --Nigelj (talk) 21:50, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

RfC on article name change

I was searching for historic global warming articles and noticed that the number of such hits by google has plummeted since 2007. For interest I tried: "climate change" and discovered that this term seems to have taken over and that itnow has about twice as many hits as "global warming" (29,700,000 to 53,700,000).

On the face of it this would suggest the article is in need of a name change. So:

1. Are the two terms interchangeable?
2. I.e. is it simply a case of changing the name with a suitable link from global warming?
3. Does the higher google hits for "climate change" really reflect a higher usage?

Isonomia (talk) 11:57, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

This keeps coming up (should it be added to the FAQ?) I think you only need a basic understanding of English and a few moments thought to work it out. Changes in climate (CC) can be up or down, and over the long-distant past there have been periods of warming and of cooling. All of this is discussed in Climate change. The current changes in the climate are upward, so we are in a period of global warming (GW). You can't write an article on GW in general, as it would have to cover all the periods of warming, at the ends of every ice age etc, without discussing the periods of stasis or those of cooling, which would be mad. So, since you can write an article on CC in general, that is what we have done; and we've kept 'GW' for the title of this article on the present global warming. Two common, simple phrases, two top-level articles.

Of course this is just us, and not the whole world. It does not even apply to sub-articles here - we have 'X of CC' and 'Y of GW' articles freely mixed ( = ). This is a recognition that, in my opinion, we do not want falsely to create a 'secret code' distinction between these two terms where none exists. Very often they are interchangeable in many sentences and phrases (warming of the globe is a change in climate; global cooling is a CC, not a GW). This does not alter the fact that we have two top-level articles, and two well-known phrases, and have used the phrases as best we can to name the two articles.

Can anyone who's a better wordsmith than I condense all that down into a pithy FAQ? --Nigelj (talk) 14:16, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

As you are well aware the nature of this subject has changed out of all recognition since climategate, and may I strongly suggest that any FAQ given before climategate are totally irrelevant now. Please do not try and use this old hackneye ploy to stiffle proper debate! Isonomia (talk) 21:44, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

The science hasn't changed recently, by "climategate" presumably you mean the recent outpouring of lies and misinformation in the popular press. We do of course aim to improve the FAQs, have you suggestions for improvement based on reliable scientific sources? . . dave souza, talk 22:28, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

I agree that the terms are not interchangeable. Global warming is a type of change in the climate (a warming trend). This article could be merged with the climate change article as this would place global warming in a better context, meaning that the climate is inherently unstable on a long time scale.130.232.214.10 (talk) 14:30, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

You said, The current changes in the climate are upward, so we are in a period of global warming (GW). This implies a conflation of climate with temperature. "Climate" is far broader than just temperature, and I know you well enough to know you know that, so I'll chalk it up to inapt wording.--SPhilbrickT 15:56, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

"Global warming" has for at least 10 years taken on a meaning different form the simple combination of its constituents. It has a a character not unlike a proper noun. Without further qualifiers, the term is used overwhelmingly to refer to the current episode of climate change, both in the popular press and in the scientific literature. We have an analysis of this somewhere in the archives. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:25, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

If you don't change the name, you'll be busted for this hoax sooner rather than later. The reason "they" started using the term "Climate Change" is for one of two reasons: they realized at any given time the planet is either cooling or warming, or they actually predicted the current cooling. --Karbinski (talk) 16:54, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

Wrong. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:20, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

To expand a bit on Stephan's wrong: The reason for the change from global warming to climate change, actually does lie within the political dimension... Just not the way you think: It originates with Frank Luntz' advice to the Bush administration. You can read a bit about it here Frank Luntz#Global warming. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 19:11, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

That's an amazing statement from Luntz. It's stunning what Americans get fed by their political 'masters'. I'm sure we get fed some rubbish too, but although politicians try to rewrite history, mostly they don't try to alter the English language itself. I often wondered what alleged crack in the scientific consensus people were trying force open by wanting to draw a distinction between the two terms. Some politician needed to survive a few more months in office, so they altered the whole understanding of a few hundred million people just maintain their grip on power. They're gone now, but we still have a whole nation with a distorted understanding of some English phrases, that these people created. Maybe we need more than a FAQ on this - a para in the article, Terminology? --Nigelj (talk) 21:24, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

It was easy to do because it is a broader context to view global warming in, not a replacement for the concept of global warming. For example, ocean acidification is a consequence of CO2 concentration, but isn't warming per se. Sometimes (probably by accident) politicians get it right. Kind of. I'm not going to comment on the Orwellian thoughts of yours. Ignignot (talk) 22:14, 24 February 2010 (UTC)

I agree. Climate change covers the concept better, which is why it stuck. It circumnavigates some of the inherent explanation problems inherent in any change (be it towards warmer or colder) - everywhere won't warm/cool (mostwhere will), topography makes for some glaciers to recede/grow (most wont), regional change generally is more uncertain than global change (ie. there will be no homogeneous change)... etc etc. But global warming is the common name for the recent warming, and the projections of its continuation. And Climate change is already an article, which covers the broader aspects of climate change on the geological timescale, which is something that encompasses nearly as broad a field as the current climate change. (sorry if i'm rambling - its 2AM and i need sleep :-) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 01:11, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

In favour of climate change the IPCC are called that way. Global warming IS in the decline as a term of use in terms of media reports, and those which use it are predominantly political rather than scientific in nature which would strongly suggest that an article of this name would cover the political aspects of global warming, which as far as I am aware is not covered at all in Misplaced Pages. If I bought a book labelled "global warming" from a bookshop I would expect it to cover the history, the politics, the science, and the forecasts. To me that suggests this is not the right name for an article on the science. Perhaps AGW, or whatever the current name used in the climate community would be more appropriate for a scientific article. A scientific name for a scientific article, rather than a poltical-environmental name.Isonomia (talk) 21:40, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

That would be a book, this is an encyclopedia article. What you want to see is covered, e.g., in politics of global warming, and in all the other articles in the GW/CC nav bar. --Nigelj (talk) 12:07, 27 February 2010 (UTC)

Leave the name alone. Stop wasting time William M. Connolley (talk) 22:07, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

I like the idea of a name change. "Climate change" captures both the cooling and warming episodes we have had in the last 40 years. Wellpoint32 (talk) 07:11, 27 February 2010 (UTC)

Climatic 'episodes' take at least 40 years each to become apparent. The current warming episode only became clear about 100 years in, and some people are still arguing about it 50 years after that! You're talking about weather, not climate. --Nigelj (talk) 11:38, 27 February 2010 (UTC)

Rv: why

We don't need unneeded words William M. Connolley (talk) 08:21, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

...and any words expressing views you disagree with are of course unneeded. After all, we can't improve on perfection. Kauffner (talk) 11:02, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

...and what exactly was the view that he was expressing by changing "NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies" to "GISS" because it is a well known acronym? An anthropogenic letter reduction program? Did you even look at the diff?Ignignot (talk) 12:24, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

Yeah, GISSgate! Anthropogenic letter reductionists run riot on Misplaced Pages! Something must be done about it! --Nigelj (talk) 12:35, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

Section on temperature decline

A handful of POV issues.

1. The article also omits any mention of CO2/$GNP statistics, which biases it towards its conclusion that the US is a worse offender than China when the reverse is true in terms of energy efficiency relative to wealth generation. This is a hotly contested policy issue, and the article takes sides by relying solely on the CO2 per capita statistic.
2. The article does not distinguish between skeptics of the science and skeptics of the economics, making opponents of radical climate-change policies seem like know-nothings. In fact, there are many skeptics who fully acknowledge the existence of and scientific consensus for anthropogenic global warming, but believe the damage to the economy from drastic limits on carbon emissions would far outweigh the damage from global warming itself.
3. The article falsely characterizes the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute with the pejorative and incorrect adjective "business-centered." A featured article should have no need to poison the well. I would hope that it's uncontroversial that I corrected this line-item. THF (talk) 12:55, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
4. The File:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg map pushes the POV that the US is a particularly bad offender: you will see that the green bars are very narrow, while the red bars take up 80% of the range. A neutral map would have the US colored in at greenish yellow rather than dark orange. THF (talk) 13:07, 1 March 2010 (UTC)

Being a die-hard capitalist I don't see "business centered" as pejorative. Nor as false, for that matter. They say themselves that they are "dedicated to free enterprise," which is essentially the same thing. Maybe "market oriented" or similar wording? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:43, 1 March 2010 (UTC)

Being dedicated to "free enterprise" isn't necessarily "business centered": many businesses prefer to engage in rent seeking rather than free market competition. I'd be alright with "free-market." THF (talk) 14:54, 1 March 2010 (UTC)

We Need to Work This Criticism into the Appropriate AGW Articles

Select Committee

• All unassessed articles
• Pages using WikiProject banner shell with duplicate banner templates
• FA-Class Weather articles
• Top-importance Weather articles
• Unsorted weather articles
• WikiProject Weather articles
• Unassessed Environment articles
• Unknown-importance Environment articles
• WikiProject Climate change articles
• FA-Class Environment articles
• FA-Class Geology articles
• High-importance Geology articles
• High-importance FA-Class Geology articles
• WikiProject Geology articles
• FA-Class Arctic articles
• High-importance Arctic articles
• WikiProject Arctic articles
• Misplaced Pages pages referenced by the press
• Misplaced Pages featured articles
• Featured articles that have appeared on the main page
• Featured articles that have appeared on the main page once
• Old requests for peer review
• Spoken Misplaced Pages requests