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Turkey's formal application to join the European Community—the organisation that has since developed into the European Union—was made on April 14, 1987. It was officially recognised as a candidate for membership on December 10, 1999 at the Helsinki summit of the European Council, having been an Associate Member since 1963. It started negotiations on October 3, 2005, a process that is likely to take at least a decade to complete. Its possible future accession is now the central controversy of the ongoing enlargement of the European Union.

History

Turkey first applied for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959, and finally signed an Association Agreement in 1963. This provided for the future possibility of full membership. Turkey made such an application on 14 April, 1987. Though this application was rejected by the Commission in 1989, on the basis of its poor economy and human rights record, Turkey's eligibility for membership was confirmed.

During the 1990s Turkey proceeded with a closer integration with the European Union by agreeing to a customs union in 1995 (in effect since 1996). Moreover the Helsinki European Council of 1999 again stated that Turkey was a candidate for full membership on the same basis as other candidates, namely the fulfillment of the Copenhagen criteria.

Another significant aspect of this summit was that Greece for the first time withdrew its longstanding objections over giving Turkey official candidate status. In return, Turkey agreed to cooperate for a solution on the problem of divided Cyprus, while the European Union pledged that such a solution would not however be a prerequisite on the future accession of the Republic of Cyprus into the Union. Around this time a strong and wide-reaching reform program was also initiated under the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a popular pro-European party with Islamist roots, though as of now it has developed to a party of Islamic democracy modeled on European Christian Democracy.

Turkey - European Union (EU after the entry of Romania and Bulgaria in 2007)

The next significant step in Turkish-EU relationships came with the December 2002 Copenhagen European Council. According to it, "he EU would open negotiations with Turkey 'without delay' if the European Council in December 2004, on the basis of a report and a recommendation from the Commission, decides that Turkey fulfils the Copenhagen political criteria."

Turkey also backed the latest EU-supported UN plan to reunite Cyprus in 2004, even though it had consistently rejected all earlier efforts. At the same time, a three-decade long period of hyperinflation ended, with inflation being reduced to 6% in recent years from annual levels of 75% during the mid-90s.

Also the political reform program of the Erdoğan government continued. Some specific developments during this time included:

• Turkey ratified the Sixth Protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights and signed the 13th Protocol, meaning it has abolished the death penalty for all crimes, peacetime and wartime.
• The AKP government has lifted a small part of the large-scale ban on the teaching of Kurdish; now there are two private schools teaching Kurdish—although it does not yet accept the use of Kurdish in regular education (as required by European conventions in those areas historically and currently inhabited by Kurds).

In response to these developments, the European Commission recommended that the negotiations should begin in 2005, but also added various precautionary measures. The EU's leaders agreed on 16 December, 2004 to start accession negotiations with Turkey from 3 October, 2005. Despite an attempt by the Austrian government to offer Turkey less than full membership, delaying the start of negotiations, they did in fact officially start just before midnight (UTC) that day.

The country's eventual accession now faces democratic approval processes in European and member states legislative procedures.

One of the recommendations of the Commission's report was that the EU will need to define its financial perspective for the period from 2014 before negotiations can be concluded. Though it is as yet unknown if and when Turkey will actually join, this clarified somewhat the timeframe: it may be unlikely to happen before 2015—while some EU officials have discussed 2019 as a potential end-date.

Likelihood of accession

Official point of view

EU member states must unanimously agree to Turkish membership for Turkish accession to be successful. A number of nations could oppose it, notably Austria, which historically served as a bulwark for Christian Europe against the Ottoman Empire, and France, which is fearful of the prospect of another wave of Muslim immigrants (especially given the poor integration of its existing, mainly Arab, Muslim minority).

• French President Jacques Chirac, a supporter of the accession of Turkey into the EU, had to agree that the amendment to the French constitution authorizing the ratification of the proposed European Constitution contains a clause saying that a referendum is required before France can give its approval to Turkey or other future candidates to the European Union (the amendment excludes states that have already signed agreements). Some politicians opposed to the constitutional treaty, such as Philippe de Villiers, realized that the treaty paved the way to Turkish membership, which they deem highly undesirable.
• Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel has said that he may hold a referendum on the issue. Recently, Austrian President Heinz Fischer has strongly suggested a pan-European referendum on the issue, given its great importance for the future of the EU. Recent Greek governments supported Turkish membership hoping that Turkey would soften up its stance in a number of issues of conflict between Turkey and Greece during the process of and after joining EU. However, opinion polls from the end of December 2004 show that opposition is twice as strong among ordinary Greeks as support.

Developments within Turkey could also freeze accession talks—such as interference of the sceptical military in civilian rule, the rise to power of a hard-line Islamic or nationalist government, or the current government failing to prove its willingness to respect the acquis communautaire.

The European Parliament has voted overwhelmingly in favour of Turkish membership talks.

Public opinion

Public opinion in EU countries generally opposes Turkish membership, though with varying degrees of intensity. The Eurobarometer May-June 2005 survey shows that 52% of EU citizens are against Turkey joining the EU, while about 35% are in favour. Citizens from the new member states are more in favour of Turkey joining (48% in favour) than the old EU-15 (32% in favour). The country whose population most strongly opposes Turkish membership is Austria (pro: 10%, con: 80%), while Finland (pro:75%, con: 16%) is the population that supports Turkish accession the most.

Arguments used against Turkish membership

Opposition to Turkey's entry into the EU varies among the public of the current EU member states, as does political support or opposition to the entry bid. The issues mentioned by some of those objecting to Turkey's EU candidacy can be divided among those inherent to Turkey's situation, those that involve internal issues about human rights, democracy, and related matters, and those concerning Turkey's open external disputes with its neighbours.

Inherent issues

• Possible differences in fundamental values and culture between a predominantly Muslim country (97.4% of the population) with current EU members, all of which are historically Christian. Unlike most EU members, which are increasingly secular, Islam continues to play a major role in daily life in Turkey. This remains an issue even though both Turkey and current EU members claim to be secular because of historical and recent anti-Muslim sentiments in the EU .

• The Turkish government's refusal to officially recognize the state of Cyprus, a current E.U. member, technically nullifies any negotiations and promises made between Turkey and the E.U., and is the greatest obstacle to Turkey's accession to the E.U., much before other issues. This issue alone is of great diplomatic concern because it paradoxically implies that Turkey does not fully recognize the side it is negotiating with. The only possible solution, apart from an unlikely change of strategy by the Turkish government, would be the introduction of a bureaucratic or diplomatic circumvention or escamotage, like the E.U. adopting special negotiation rules for Turkey.

• Only 3% of Turkey's territory lies in geographical Europe. Furthermore, the Turkish capital is not in Europe, but, like Cyprus, in Asia. Turkey's membership would mean that the European Union's external borders would now reach Middle Eastern nations such as Syria, Iraq and Iran.

• Turkey's large size and relative poverty. Turkey would upon accession represent an expansion almost equal in population to that of the 2004 Enlargement while the Turkish economy has been known for very unstable growth and sharp recessions despite some recent improvement. Many question whether the EU can support and "absorb" such a large and poor state, and many member states are wary of a potentially huge wave of poor Turkish immigration.

• Turkey's large political power once in the Union. Its almost 70 million inhabitants will bestow it the second largest number of representatives in the European Parliament, after Germany. With the current rate of population increase some fear it might even surpass Germany by the time of accession.
  • Note however that members of the European Parliament are divided along ideological lines rather than along national lines. Most national parties of current member states are part of their ideological European party group counterpart. As at the moment, the AKP (as the largest Turkish party) approached the European People's Party, the largest European party group, and was admitted as an observer-member, it is most likely that the AKP will join this party group if Turkey would accede to the EU.

Human rights, democracy, and other internal issues

See Human rights in Turkey for details.

• Important groups within the European Parliament have urged Turkey to recognize the Armenian massacres carried out by the Ottoman Empire during World War I as genocide. Turkey denies responsibility, stating that the events were part of a civil war during the final years of the Ottoman Empire. However, recognition of the events as genocide is not a prerequisite for entry, with many EU members themselves not formally recognising the events as such.

• Many have continuing doubts on the commitment of the Turkish state to democracy and human rights, and its ability to reach European standards in these and other issues such as gender equality and minority rights (especially as regards the Kurdish population, non-Muslims, and gays and lesbians). Freedom of political speech is another area in which some concerns have arisen (e.g. "Regular Report on Turkey's progress towards accession", p. 36 and others). Some decry the recent recognition of the Kurdish language by Turkish authorities as a cosmetic operation. Kurdish education is provided through only a few private local courses, while television in Kurdish is only for half an hour a week and under the monopoly of the state broadcasting corporation TRT. Turkey's treatment of the Kurdish people and other indigenous populations is also of concern. Article 301/1 of the Turkish penal code,which is perceived as being contrary to ideas of freedom of speech, states:

"A person who explicitly insults being a Turk, the Republic or Turkish Grand National Assembly, shall be imposed to a penalty of imprisonment for a term of six months to three years." and "Where insulting being a Turk is committed by a Turkish citizen in a foreign country, the penalty to be imposed shall be increased by one third."

There have been recent indications that Turkey may abandon or modify Article 301, after the embarrassment suffered by the prosecution of its most famous novelist, Orhan Pamuk, after mentioning the massacres of Armenians in 1915 and the number of dead resulting from the war with the Kurdistan Workers Party. The prosecutions have largely been initated by nationalists within the Judicial system, intent on derailing the accession process.

• The issue of church and state separation is another concern. Mainstream Hanafi school of Sunni Islam continues to enjoy large-scale privileges in Turkey, with thousands of imams in state employment, while Turkish clerics from other religions are not paid at all. The Greek Orthodox Church has not yet been able to re-open the Theological School of Halki as has been its request. Turkey also continues to post state-financed imams to regions of EU member states (both to those where the local minority of Turkish origin requests one and those that prefer locally trained imams). Some EU citizens resent this as interference in the domestic affairs of their states. Moreover, some religious traditions are a concern, as they may be at odds with official equality policy—for example the continued consecration of polygamous marriages by state-paid imams, incompatible with the EU's very fundamental insistence on equal rights for women. Although the claims of the Alevi minority have become more vocal in recent years, the Turkish state continues its policy of building mosques and sending imams to Alevi villages. Some current members however are also open to criticism on these grounds. In the United Kingdom the law forbids the head of state from being a Catholic and there are number of state-financed faith schools.

Relations with neighbours

• The Cyprus dispute—the island is still divided after Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island following a Greek coup d'etat against the Cypriot government. Turkey refuses to acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus (an EU member), located in the South, as the sole authority on the island, but instead recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the North. Turkey, along with Turkish Cypriots, backed the 2004 Annan plan aimed at reunification of the island, but was subsequently rejected by Greek Cypriots on the grounds that it did not meet their needs.

• The Aegean dispute, a series of unresolved geostrategic issues in the Aegean Sea between Greece (a present EU member) and Turkey, which are sources of a great number of military provocations between those two countries.

• The economic embargo and closure of land border crossings currently maintained against Armenia (due to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh). Turkey supports Azerbaijan’s claims to Nagorno-Karbakh and views the situation as an occupation of Azeri land. EU reports 3, p.8 state that Turkey should take active measures to resolve this situation before eventual accession, while then-President of the Commission, Romano Prodi said: "Personally, I do not like that the Armenian-Turkish border gate is closed. I do not exclude that the issue of closed borders could be one of the preconditions for Turkey's membership."

• For the above reasons, Turkey has insisted that the route of the lucrative Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline bypass Armenian territory. Critics point out that this policy of embargo and isolation of a smaller neighbour is inconsistent with Turkey's desire to join the open European Community.

Effect on the future direction of the EU

Turkey’s entry into the EU will have profound consequences on the future direction of the EU.

• Many believe that the inclusion of such a large country with a different culture and poor economy might make it extremely difficult for the EU to deepen its integration, and might force it to be reduced to a simple zone of economic cooperation. This is something that is considered a benefit by many eurosceptics who want the EU to structurally remain as is or even revert to an earlier state, being mainly an economic free market project and not a wider political and cultural project, but the opposite view is espoused by the European federalists.

• Turkey is a traditionally Atlanticist and NATO country, with very close ties to the United States. The USA has also been one of the strongest backers of Turkey's membership. Some member states, like France, wish the EU to increase its political independence from the United States and therefore believe Turkish membership is undesirable. Atlanticist countries, however, like the United Kingdom, would see their positions strengthened.

• Valéry Giscard d'Estaing has opposed Turkey's admission on the grounds that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco.

Arguments used for Turkish membership

Turkey stresses its involvement in European history for about 1000 years, through the Ottoman Empire and as the seat of the Eastern Roman Empire. It considers itself a European state. A prevalent point of view in Turkey, echoed by its prime minister Erdoğan, is that the EU seems to be a "Christian club", although the foundation of the European Union never acclaimed to be on religious grounds.

European Christians freely rose to the highest position in the Ottoman Empire. More Grand Viziers were ethnic Slavs, Greeks or Albanians, rather than Turks. Even the maternal lineage of Ottoman Sultans was equally non-Turkish and Turkish after the first few generations. The Ottomans made key contributions to European culture - coffee came to Europe from Turkey..

There are alleged double standards in the requisites for Turkish membership. While some refuse Turkey's admission on the grounds of its territory being mostly Asian, Cyprus is also considered to be geographically Asian. Turkey is poor but not significantly more so than Bulgaria and Romania which will in all likelihood be joining in 2007.

The Turks clearly consider their state a strongly secular one, just as the EU defines itself (for example with the abandonment of the proposals to make reference to Europe's Christian heritage in the draft European Constitution).

Turkey's overwhelmingly Muslim population would lend considerable weight to EU multi-culturalism efforts and might help to prevent potential scenarios involving a clash of civilizations. At the same time, Turkey's young (23% of population is under 15) and well-educated population might act as a balance for the increasingly aging populations of the current EU. In relation to this, Samuel Huntington regards Turkey as a split country in his book Clash of Civilizations, which could drift off to islamism and/or nationalism if European integration fails.

Outside Turkey, Atlanticist countries such as the United Kingdom believe that Turkey, having been a staunch NATO ally, would help counteract France's usually independent stance towards the United States. (In non-Atlanticist countries such as France, this is of course seen as an argument against Turkish membership.)

Many in the West believe that Turkish membership would cement its alignment with the West. Turkey is the strongest regional military power that would give the EU more weight in hotspots like Syria, Iraq or Iran. Alternatively some believe that conditional Turkish membership would encourage moves towards more stable economic growth, democratic government and a less interfering military. This could potentially provide a model of democracy for the rest of the Middle East, comparable to the role played by Western Europe in the Cold War.

Individual opinions and quotes

Opinions

• Notable individuals that oppose Turkish membership:

• In Belgium, Willy Claes and Karel van Miert, both socialist ex-ministers, one a former NATO-secretary and the other a former European Commissioner, are strongly opposed to Turkish accession.
• In France similar opposition is known from Jacques Delors, a French socialist and former president of the European Commission and Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, a former French president and chairman of the convention that drafted the European Constitution.
• In Germany, Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany.

• Notable individuals that support Turkish membership:

• In the United Kingdom, Tony Blair, British Prime Minister.
• In Germany, Joschka Fischer, former foreign minister.
• In France, Jacques Chirac, President of France.

Quotes

"In my opinion, it would be the end of Europe."—Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (former President of France, drafter of the European Constitution), 8 November, 2002.

"Turkey has always been associated with European civilisation, and it is an important and loyal member of the Atlantic alliance. It is in our political interest to have a modern, stable, democratic Turkey which has made the choice of secularism since 1924, a Turkey agreeing to share our aims and values."—French President Jacques Chirac, April 29, 2004

"probably displease Mr Bin Laden, who has done everything to prevent this moment arriving". Diogo Freitas do Amaral (Portuguese Foreign Minister)

See also

• Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
• Cyprus dispute
• Foreign relations of Turkey
• Greco-Turkish relations
• Human rights in Turkey
• Ilisu Dam Campaign
• Southeastern Anatolia Project

External links

• ABHaber.com (EU Turkey News Network) daily updated news and analysis on EU and Turkey
• Europe and Turkey must get ready to go back to the futureTurkey’s rich history is no bar to its EU membership bid, argue Katleen Maes and Khaled Diab in the European Voice
• Regime change, European-style, is a measure of our civilisation
• Failure of the talks 'would betray Turks and Europe'
• Time to talk to Turkey
• The case for Turkey
• We need Turkey
• We must not turn our back on our best Muslim ally
• Turkey and the European Union
• "Turkey accused of torturing mentally disabled," AFP, 9/28/2005
• The COE's Framework Convention for the Protection of national Minorities
• EU report on Issues arising from Turkey's membership perspective
• Human Rights Watch on Turkey
• Foreign Affairs - Turkey's Dreams of Accession
• Foreign Affairs - Talking Turkey (Discussion about Turkish Accession)
• BBC Have Your Say - Should Turkey Join the EU? (Moderated public discussion concerning primarily English-speaking opinion concerning Turkish Accession)
• Greece's Shifting Position on Turkish Accession to the EU Before and After Helsinki (1999)
• Freedom of Expression in Turkey - IFEX
• EUROPE’S REASONS AND TURKEY’S ACCESSION (ARI)
• "Middle East Needs Turkey's EU Membership", Ayse Hakim, JTW
• ZEI EU-Turkey-Monitor - Newsletter to monitor accession negotiations
• "U.S. Diplomat: Turkey's EU Aspirations Can Inspire Muslims", Vince Crawley, The Washington File
• "If Turkey Says No?", Sedat Laciner
• Good Reasons to Say NO to Turkey
• European Press Review: E.U. Snubs Turkey (Views about Turkish EU membership from London, Paris, Frankfurt, Athens, Berlin, Munich, Vienna, Hamburg, Turin, and Zurich)
• "Turkey Apprehensive Over EU Crises", by Jonathan Gorvett, Aljazeera
• Turn the Page, but Read It First: Why Europe and Turkey Must Now Address the Armenian Genocide
• The Cairo Declaration on Human Rights in Islam
• http://www.soros.org/resources/articles_publications/publications/turkey_2004901/english.pdf

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• Enlargement of the European Union
• Foreign relations of Turkey
• Politics of Turkey