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Public opinion on climate change is the aggregate of attitudes or beliefs held by the adult population concerning the science, economics, and politics of global warming. It is affected by media coverage of climate change.

Individuals

Regional

A 2007–2008 Gallup Poll surveyed individuals in 128 countries. This poll queried whether the respondent knew of global warming and, for those who were aware of the issue, whether or not they thought it was human-induced. Over a third of the world's population were unaware of global warming, with developing countries less aware than developed, and Africa the least aware. Of those aware, residents of Latin America and developed countries in Asia lead the belief that climate change is a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the former Soviet Union lead in the opposite. Opinion within the United Kingdom is divided. Opinions in the United States vary.

Adults in Asia, with the exception of those in developed countries, are the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In the western world, individuals are the most likely to be aware and perceive it as a very or somewhat serious threat to themselves and their families; although Europeans are more concerned about climate change than those in the United States. However, the public in Africa, where individuals are the most vulnerable to global warming while producing the least carbon dioxide, is the least aware – which translates into a low perception that it is a threat.

These variations pose a challenge to policymakers, as different countries travel down different paths, making an agreement over an appropriate response difficult. While Africa may be the most vulnerable and produce the least greenhouse gases, they are the most ambivalent. The top five emitters (China, the United States, India, Russia, and Japan), who together emit half the world's greenhouse gases, vary in both awareness and concern. The United States, Russia, and Japan are the most aware at over 85% of the population. Conversely, only two-thirds of China and one-third of India are aware. Japan expresses the greatest concern, which translates into support for environmental policies. China, Russia, and the United States, while varying in awareness, have expressed a similar proportion of aware individuals concerned. Similarly, those aware in India are likely to be concerned, but India faces challenges spreading this concern to the remaining population as its energy needs increase over the next decade.

Education

In countries varying in awareness, an educational gap translates into a gap in awareness. However an increase in awareness does not always result in an increase in perceived threat. In China, 98% of those who have completed four years or more of college education reported knowing something or a great deal of climate change while only 63% of those who have completed nine years of education reported the same. Despite the differences in awareness in China, all groups perceive a low level of threat from global warming. In India those who are educated are more likely to be aware, and those who are educated there are far more likely to report perceiving global warming as a threat than those who are not educated. However, a survey of American adults found that "as respondents’ science-literacy scores increased, concern with climate change decreased ", and that cultural values are a much better determinant of opinions on global warming than education.

In Europe, individuals who have attained a higher level of education perceive climate change as a serious threat. There is also a strong association between education and Internet use. Europeans who use the Internet more are more likely to perceive climate change as a serious threat.

Demographics

Residential demographics affect perceptions of global warming. In China, 77% of those who live in urban areas are aware of global warming compared to 52% in rural areas. This trends is mirrored in India with 49% to 29% awareness, respectively.

Of those countries where at least half the population are aware of global warming, those with the greatest proportion believing that global warming is due to human activities spend more on energy.

In Europe, individuals under fifty-five are more likely to perceive both "poverty, lack of food and drinking water" and climate change as a serious threat than individuals over fifty-five. Male individuals are more likely to perceive climate change as a threat than female individuals. Managers, white collar workers, and students are more likely to perceive climate change as a greater threat than house persons and retired individuals.

Political identification

The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with the United States and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject. You may improve this section, discuss the issue on the talk page, or create a new section, as appropriate. (September 2011) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

In the United States, support for environmental protection was relatively non-partisan in the past. Republican Theodore Roosevelt established national parks whereas Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt established the Soil Conservation Service. This non-partisanship began to erode during the 1980s when the Reagan administration described environmental protection as an economic burden. Views over global warming began to seriously diverge between Democrats and Republicans during the negotiations that led up to the creation of the Kyoto Protocol in 1998. In a 2008 Gallup poll of the American public, 76% of Democrats and only 41% of Republicans said that they believed global warming was already happening. The gap between the opinions of the political elites, such as members of Congress, tends to be even more polarized.

In Europe, opinion is not strongly divided among left and right parties. Although European political parties on the left, and Green parties, strongly support measures to address climate change, conservative European political parties maintain similar sentiments, most notably in Western and Northern Europe. For example, France's center-right President Chirac pushed key environmental and climate change policies in France in 2005–2007, and conservative German administrations (under the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union) in the past two decades have supported European Union climate change initiatives. In the period after former President Bush announced that the United States was leaving the Kyoto Treaty, European media and newspapers on both the left and right criticized the move. The conservative Spanish La Razón, the Irish Times, Irish Independent, the Danish Berlingske Tidende, and the Greek Kathimerini all condemned the Bush administration's decision along with left-leaning newspapers.

The shared sentiments between the political left and right on climate change further illustrate the divide in perception between the United States and Europe on climate change. As an example, conservative German Prime Ministers Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel have differed with other parties in Germany only on "how to meet emissions reduction targets, not whether or not to establish or fulfill them."

Ideology

In the United States, ideology is an effective predictor of party identification, where conservatives are more prevalent among Republicans, and moderates and liberals among independents and Democrats. A shift in ideology is often associated with in a shift in political views. For example, when the number of conservatives rose from 2008 to 2009, the number of individuals who felt that global warming was being exaggerated in the media also rose.

Issues

Economics

Economic debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of mitigating global warming against the costs that such changes would entail. While there is a greater amount of agreement over whether global warming exists, there is less agreement over the appropriate response.

Fossil fuels industry

ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson says fears about climate change, drilling and energy dependence are overblown.

Media

The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with the United States and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject. You may improve this section, discuss the issue on the talk page, or create a new section, as appropriate. (September 2011) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

In the interest of "balance," the popular media in the U.S. gives greater attention to skeptics relative to the scientific community as a whole, and the level of agreement within the scientific community has not been accurately communicated within the United States. This coverage differs from that presented in other countries, where press coverage is more consistent with the scientific literature. Over the past ten years there has been an increase from less than half to over two-thirds of Americans who agree that most scientists believe global warming is occurring and reached a peak in 2008 where it then declined.

Individual public awareness of human contributions to climate change in the 1990s was limited. Yet, even in the past decade, global misunderstandings continue to persist within the populace, regardless of the level of development or modernity of the host country. Some journalists attribute the disproportionate coverage to climate change denial propagated by business-centered organizations, which follow the pattern of the tobacco lobby from years earlier, as well as to conservative commentators such as Rush Limbaugh who have contributed to the Republican Party's highly skeptical view. The efforts of Al Gore and other environmental campaigns have focused on the effects of global warming and have managed to increase awareness and concern. Yet, they have failed to convincingly communicate the causes of global warming or improve the perception of media bias. Various factors contribute to this phenomenon, including the fact that only a third of Americans consider Al Gore an expert. Others point to the problem that "many people were turned off by extremists on both sides." The proportion of Americans believing that "global warming is exaggerated in the media" rose from 1998 to 2004, dropped from 2005 to 2007, and continued to rise from then on. 35% of Americans believe that it’s very likely some scientists have falsified research data to support their own theories and beliefs while 26% say not at all. The U.S. is also an exception regarding public opinion on the cause of global warming, with nearly half of the population (47%, the largest in any country) attributing global warming to natural causes.

Politics

Public opinion impacts on the issue of climate change because governments need willing electorates and citizens in order to implement policies that address climate change. Further, when climate change perceptions differ between the populace and governments, the communication of risk to the public becomes problematic. Finally, a public that is not aware of the issues surrounding climate change may resist or oppose climate change policies, which is of considerable importance to politicians and state leaders.

A 2009 Eurobarometer survey found that, on the average, Europeans rate climate change as the second most serious problem facing the world today, between "poverty, the lack of food and drinking water" and "a major global economic downturn." 87% of Europeans consider climate change to be a "serious" or "very serious" problem, while 10% "do not consider it a serious problem." However, the proportion who believe it to be a problem has dropped in the period 2008/9 when the surveys were conducted. While the small majority believe climate change is a serious threat, 55% percent believe the EU is doing too little and 30% believe the EU is going the right amount. As a result of European Union climate change perceptions, "climate change is an issue that has reached such a level of social and political acceptability across the EU that it enables (indeed, forces) the EU Commission and national leaders to produce all sorts of measures, including taxes." Despite the persistent high level of personal involvement of European citizens, found in another Eurobarometer survey in 2011, EU leaders have begun to downscale climate policy issues on the political agenda since the beginning of the Eurozone crisis.

The proportion of Americans who believe that the effects of global warming rose to a peak in 2008 and then declined. A similar trend was found regarding the belief that global warming is a threat to their lifestyle within their lifetime. Concern over global warming often corresponds with economic downturns and national crisis such as 9/11 as Americans prioritize the economy and national security over environmental concerns. However the drop in concern in 2008 is unique compared to other environmental issues. Considered in the context of environmental issues, Americans consider global warming as a less critical concern than the pollution of rivers, lakes, and drinking water; toxic waste; fresh water needs; air pollution; damage to the ozone layer; and the loss of tropical rain forests. However, Americans prioritize global warming over species extinction and acid rain issues. Since 2000 the partisan gap has grown as Republican and Democratic views diverge.

Science

The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with the United States and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject. You may improve this section, discuss the issue on the talk page, or create a new section, as appropriate. (September 2011) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

A scientific consensus on climate change exists, as recognized by national academies of science and other authoritative bodies. The conclusions are that the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans have risen since the late 19th century and this rise is projected to continue. Since the early 20th century, Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels.

Despite objections from some individual scientists, studies such as surveys of climatologists and reviews of abstracts from scientific journals have found little controversy over these conclusions within the scientific community. Nevertheless 59% of Americans believe there is "significant disagreement" among scientists on the issue. The opinion gap between scientists and the public in 2009 stands at 84% to 49% that global temperatures are increasing because of human-activity.

A July 2011 Rasmussen Reports poll found that 69% of adults in the USA believe it is at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified global warming research.

A September 2011 Angus Reid Public Opinion poll found that Britons (43%) are less likely than Americans (49%) or Canadians (52%) to say that "global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities." The same poll found that 20% of Americans, 20% of Britons and 14% of Canadians think "global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven."

See also

• Global warming controversy

References

1. Pelham, Brett (22 April 2009). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide". The Gallup Organization. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
2. Gillis, Justin (17 April 2012). "Americans Link Global Warming to Extreme Weather, Poll Says". The New York Times.
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5. ^ Pugliese, Anita; Ray, Julie (7 December 2009). "Top-Emitting Countries Differ on Climate Change Threat". Gallup. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
6. "The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks". Nature (journal). 2012. Retrieved 10 June 2012.
7. ^ TNS Opinion and Social 2009, p. 13
8. Pelham, Brett W. (24 April 2009). "Views on Global Warming Relate to Energy Efficiency". Gallup. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
9. ^ Dunlap, Riley E. (29 May 2009). "Climate-Change Views: Republican-Democratic Gaps Expand". Gallup. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
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13. Exxon on climate change impacts: “Don’t worry, engineering will fix it” June 29, 2012 Skeptic (U.S. magazine)
14. Oil chief: World will adapt to climate change June 28, 2012
15. Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001 instead.
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19. ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9072-z, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1007/s10584-006-9072-z instead.
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27. Ray, Julie (22 April 2011). "Worldwide, Blame for Climate Change Falls on Humans". Gallup.Com. Retrieved 3 May 2011. People nearly everywhere, including majorities in developed Asia and Latin America, are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities rather than natural causes. The U.S. is the exception, with nearly half (47%) – and the largest percentage in the world – attributing global warming to natural causes. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
28. TNS Opinion and Social 2009, p. 15
29. TNS Opinion and Social 2009, p. 21
30. European Commission, Special Eurobarometer 372 - Climate Change Brussels, June 2011
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33. Dunlap, Riley E. (29 May 2008). "Partisan Gap on Global Warming Grows". Gallup Organization. Retrieved 17 December 2009.
34. Rasmussen Reports July 29-30, 2011
35. Joint Science Academies (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change" (Full free text). United States National Academies of Sciences. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
36. America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5. The average temperature of the Earth's surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades
37. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFIPCC_AR4_SYR2007 (help).
38. "Three different approaches are used to describe uncertainties each with a distinct form of language. * * * Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%......" IPCC, Synthesis Report, Treatment of Uncertainty, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFIPCC_AR4_SYR2007 (help).
39. IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFIPCC_AR4_SYR2007 (help).
40. America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0. (p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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43. 59% Say Scientists Disagree 'Significantly' Over Global Warming
44. "Public Praises Science; Scientists Fault Public, Media" (PDF). Pew Research Center. 9 June 2009. pp. 5, 55. Retrieved 13 March 2010.
45. Rasmussen Reports July 29–30, 2011
46. Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted August 25 through September 2, 2011

Bibliography

• TNS Opinion and Social (2009). "Europeans' Attitudes Towards Climate Change" (Full free text). European Commission. Retrieved 24 December 2009. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)CS1 maint: ref duplicates default (link)

External links

• Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change? from Scientific American

• Use dmy dates from October 2010
• Climate change and society
• Environmental education