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] came into effect at midnight on the night of 9 November 2012 and lasted until 19:00 ] on the evening of 11 November when the polling stations closed. ] came into effect at midnight on the night of 9 November 2012 and lasted until 19:00 ] on the evening of 11 November when the polling stations closed.

==Opinion Polls==
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
!! width="100px" | Date(s)<br>conducted !!width="280px"|Polling organisation/client, reference!!class="unsortable" width="65px" | Sample size!!class="unsortable" style="background:#0087DC" width="90px"| <font color="White">Danilo Türk</font>!!class="unsortable" style="background:#DC241F" width="90px"|<font color="White">Borut Pahor</font>!! class="unsortable" style="background:#FDBB30" width="90px"| <font color="Black">Milan Zver</font>!!class="unsortable" style="background:gray" width="90px"| <font color="White">Undecided, Not voting</font>!! class="unsortable" width="40px" |Lead
|-
|- Nov ||Faculty for applied social studies/Slovenian beat<ref>{{cite news|title=Slovenski utrip: v nedeljo Pahorju 75, Türku 25 odstotkov|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/slovenski-utrip-v-nedeljo-pahorju-75-tuerku-25-odstotkov/296984|accessdate=30 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=30 November 2012}}</ref> || - || 17.2% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''53.6%''' || - || 29.1% || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 36.4
|-
|- Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Večer: Pahor z naskokom 27,6 odstotne točke|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/vecer-pahor-z-naskokom-27-6-odstotne-tocke/297016|accessdate=30 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=30 November 2012}}</ref> || - || 20.8% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''48.4%''' || - || 30.7% || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 27.6%
|-
|27-29 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Dela: Pahorju 55 odstotkov, Türku 24|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-dela-pahorju-55-odstotkov-tuerku-24/296971|accessdate=30 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=30 November 2012}}</ref> || 786 || 24% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''55%''' || - || 21% || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 31%
|-
|24-27 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Planet TV: Javno mnenje na Planet TV: Türku se obeta katastrofalen volilni poraz|url=http://www.siol.net/novice/slovenija/2012/11/planet_tv_raziskava_volitve_drugi_krog.aspx|accessdate=28 November 2012|newspaper=Planet Siol|date=28 November 2012}}</ref> || 927 || 28.9% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''71.1%''' || - || - || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 42.2%
|-
|23-25 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Planet TV: Pahor še povečal prednost pred Türkom|url=http://www.siol.net/novice/slovenija/2012/11/planet_tv_borut_pahor_danilo_turk_raziskava.aspx|accessdate=27 November 2012|newspaper=Planet Siol|date=26 November 2012}}</ref> || 930 || 31% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''69%''' || - || - || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 38%
|-
|20-22 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Dnevnika: Pahorju bi do zmage pomagali volivci desnih strank|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-dnevnika-pahorju-bi-do-zmage-pomagali-volivci-desnih-strank/296543|accessdate=30 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=24 November 2012}}</ref> || 700 || 31.6% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''53.1%''' || - || 15.3 || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 21.5%
|-
|12-20 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Planet TV: V drugem krogu bi zmagal Pahor
krog|url=http://www.siol.net/novice/slovenija/2012/11/planet_tv_drugi_krog.aspx|accessdate=20 November 2012|newspaper=Planet Siol|date=20 November 2012}}</ref> || 526 || 31.9% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''68.1%''' || - || - || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 36.2%
|-
|12–15 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Dela: Pahor prepričljivo vodi krog|url=http://www.delo.si/novice/politika/anketa-dela-pahor-prepricljivo-vodi.html|accessdate=17 November 2012|newspaper=Delo|date=17 November 2012}}</ref> || 645 || 27% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''62%''' || - || 11% || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 35%
|-
|5–8 Nov ||Mediana Institute/]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa RTV SLO: v drugem krogu Türk in Pahor|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-rtv-slo-v-drugem-krogu-tuerk-in-pahor/295436|accessdate=9 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=9 November 2012}}</ref> || 616 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''30%''' || 25% || 17% || 28% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 5%
|-
|5–8 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Dela: Zdaj še ne bo odločitve, potreben bo drugi krog|url=http://www.delo.si/novice/volitve/anketa-dela-zdaj-se-ne-bo-odlocitve-potreben-bo-drugi-krog.html|accessdate=9 November 2012|newspaper=Delo|date=9 November 2012}}</ref> || 621 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''44%''' || 31% || 25% || - || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 13%
|-
|5–7 Nov ||Faculty for applied social studies/Slovenian beat<ref>{{cite news|title=Slovenski utrip: Pahor pred Türkom in Zverom|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/slovenski-utrip-pahor-pred-tuerkom-in-zverom/295431|accessdate=9 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=9 November 2012}}</ref> || 916 || 28,5% ||style="background:#F1A09E"| '''30,7%''' || 14,2% || 26,6% || style="background:#DC241F; color:white;"| 2,2%
|-
|5–7 Nov ||RM Plus/]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Večera: Še vodi Türk, a v nedeljo še ne bo predsednika|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-vecera-se-vodi-tuerk-a-v-nedeljo-se-ne-bo-predsednika/295413|accessdate=9 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=9 November 2012}}</ref> || 700 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''24,8%''' || 21,4% || 16,6% || 37,2% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 3,4%
|-
|5–7 Nov ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Dela: Pahor čedalje bližje Türku, Zver močno zaostaja|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-dela-pahor-cedalje-blizje-tuerku-zver-mocno-zaostaja/295346|accessdate=8 November 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=8 November 2012}}</ref> || 817 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''33%''' || 27% || 18% || 22% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 6%
|-
|6 Nov ||Ninamedia/]<ref>{{cite news|title=Konec sanj o Türkovi zmagi v prvem krogu|url=http://www.dnevnik.si/slovenija/v-ospredju/konec-sanj-o-turkovi-zmagi-v-prvem-krogu|accessdate=8 November 2012|date=7 November 2012}}</ref> || 600 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''33,5%''' || 25,5% || 17% || 24% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 8%
|-
|26–30 Oct ||Mediana Institute/]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa: Največ glasov Türku, sledita Pahor in Zver. Nihče ne bi pobral večine.|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-najvec-glasov-tuerku-sledita-pahor-in-zver-nihce-ne-bi-pobral-vecine/295014|accessdate=4 November 2012|newspaper=RTV Slovenija|date=4 November 2012}}</ref> || 611 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''36%''' || 24% || 14% || 26% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 12%
|-
|24–25 Oct ||]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Dela: Vedno manj neopredeljenih volivcev|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-dela-vedno-manj-neopredeljenih-volivcev/294678|accessdate=29 October 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=29 October 2012}}</ref> || 407 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''43%''' || 20% || 13% || 24% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 23%
|-
|22–24 Oct ||RM Plus/]<ref>{{cite news|title=V predsedniški tekmi še vedno vodi Danilo Tūrk|url=http://web.vecer.com/portali/vecer/v1/default.asp?kaj=3&id=2012102505843148|accessdate=26 October 2012|newspaper=Večer|date=25 October 2012}}</ref> || 700 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''29%''' || 16,6% || 15% || 39,4% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 12,4%
|-
|16–18 Oct ||Vox populi/], ]<ref>{{cite news|title=Anketa Vox populi: Zmagal bi Türk pred Pahorjem|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/anketa-vox-populi-zmagal-bi-tuerk-pred-pahorjem/294120|accessdate=21 October 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=21 October 2012}}</ref> || 700 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''51%''' || 23% || 20% || 16% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 28%
|-
|10–16 Oct ||Episcenter/TSMedia<ref>{{cite news|title=Episcenter: Türku vsota Pahorjevih in Zverovih glasov|url=http://www.rtvslo.si/predsedniske-volitve-2012/episcenter-tuerku-vsota-pahorjevih-in-zverovih-glasov/293955|accessdate=19 October 2012|newspaper=MMC RTV Slo|date=19 October 2012}}</ref> || 1005 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''46%''' || 25% || 21% || 8% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 21%
|-
|8–10 Oct ||]<ref>{{cite web|title=Anketa Dela: Danilo Türk v prednosti|url=http://www.delo.si/novice/volitve/anketa-dela-danilo-turk-v-prednosti.html|work=Delo|publisher=Delo|accessdate=19 October 2012}}</ref> || 700 ||style="background:#9DDBFF"| '''46%''' || 24% || 16% || 14% || style="background:#0087DC; color:white;"| 22%
|}

=== Tracking polls ===
During the last two weeks of the campaign, magazine ], in association with Ninamedia agency, was running a ] to monitor the trends of changes in support for all three candidates. The poll included n=100 daily with n=200 on the last day of the poll. The final prediction of the poll on Friday, 9 November, indicated 43.8% for Türk, 33.6% for Pahor, and 22.6% for Zver, what would result in a second round being necessary. Support for Zver was more or less stable during the two weeks, slightly above 20%. Long term trend indicated a slight fall of support for Türk<ref>{{cite news|title=Kdo bo zmagal?|url=http://www.mladina.si/117590/kdo-bo-zmagal/|accessdate=9 November 2012|newspaper=Mladina|date=9 November 2012}}</ref> with the support beginning to rise again in the last days before the election. While the poll first allowed the possibility of Türk being elected in the first round already, the final prediction stated that Türk and Pahor will face the second round.<ref></ref>

Journal ] ran a tracking poll during the last week of the campaign. Similarly, the final prediction indicated 44% for Türk, 33% for Pahor and 23% for Zver. In the last two days, the poll indicated that some of supporters of Türk migrated to Pahor.<ref></ref>


== First round result and reactions == == First round result and reactions ==

Revision as of 21:14, 30 November 2012

Slovenian presidential election, 2012
← 2007 11 November and 2 December 2012 2017 →
 
Nominee Danilo Türk Borut Pahor
Party Independent SD
Incumbent President

Danilo Türk
Independent



Politics of Slovenia

UN Member State
(UNSC Member · ECOSOC Member)
EU Member State
(Eurozone Member · Schengen Area Member)
NATO Member State
Council of Europe Member State
OECD Member State

Constitution
Executive
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Elections
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Presidential elections will be held in Slovenia on 11 November 2012, with a run-off to be held on 2 December 2012. 1.709.692 voters will be able to choose between the incumbent president, Danilo Türk, the SDS/NSi party candidate Milan Zver and Borut Pahor who is supported by the Social Democrats.

Election Law

Under Slovenian Election Law, candidates for president require support of either:

  • 10 members of the National Assembly,
  • one or more political parties and either 3 members of the National Assembly or 3,000 voters,
  • or 5,000 voters.

Each political party can support only one candidate. In the election, the president is elected with a majority of the vote. If no candidate receives more than half of votes, the top two candidates meet in the second round of election.

Candidates

Danilo Türk

Danilo Türk, the incumbent president, announced that he will seek a re-election for the second term as an independent candidate and submitted over 13 thousand signatures of support to the election commission. Türk, a former United Nations diplomat and professor at the Faculty of Law of the University of Ljubljana, entered the 2007 election as an independent candidate with support of five political parties. Narrowly placing second in the first round, Türk won the second round in a landslide, defeating Lojze Peterle.

Türk is supported by two parliamentary parties, Positive Slovenia and Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia, and four non-parliamentary parties, Liberal Democracy of Slovenia, Democratic Labour Party, Party for Sustainable Development, and Zares.

Borut Pahor

Borut Pahor of Social Democrats was already considering to run for the office in the 2007 election. However, he instead decided to concentrate on the upcoming parliamentary election where his party won and he was chosen Prime Minister. In September 2011, Pahor's government lost a confidence vote amidst an economic crisis and political tensions. In the following election, Pahor was elected to the National Assembly while his party lost the plurality of the votes. In June 2012, Pahor unsuccessfully ran for re-election as president of the Social Democrats. He was defeated by Igor Lukšič by a narrow margin. At the same party congress, Pahor announced he would run for President of Slovenia. He received support from Social Democrats and also from the Civic List, a Conservative Liberal party in the Slovenian center-right government coalition. Pahor also submitted over 4.400 signatures of support.

Milan Zver

Milan Zver, SDS and NSi candidate

Milan Zver entered the election as a candidate of two coalition parties, Slovenian Democratic Party and Nova Slovenija. Zver, sociologist and political scientist, served as the Minister for Education and Sports in the centre-right government led by Janez Janša in 2004-2008. In 2009, Zver was elected member of the European Parliament as a candidate of Slovenian Democratic Party.

Failed or Withdrawn

Zmago Jelinčič Plemeniti of the Slovenian National Party, who run for the office several times before, also suggested he would run, however, he later changed his decision. Monika Malešič, independent politician, also announced her candidacy. She later withdrew her candidacy due to lack of public support. Marko Kožar, independent politician, who attempted to run at election in 2002 and 2007 but failed to gather sufficient public support both times, first announced to run this year as well but later changed his mind. Other people who announced the intention to run include Miro Žitko, Ladislav Troha, Dušan Egidij Kubot - Totislo, Artur Štern, Martina Valenčič, Fani Eršte, and Milan Robič.

Campaign

All three campaigns stated that their activities would be financially austere in accordance with the situation in the country. Each however, was marked by its own specific style. Pahor carried out a variety of voluntary jobs, and took part in a number of work actions organised by his campaign. Zver participated in numerous political and civil group rallies and similar events across the country. Türk organised a large political meeting in Križanke to inaugurate the campaign, but mostly appeared at presidential events rather than ones that were explicitly campaign oriented.

Debates

An important part of the three campaigns were the live radio and television debates. The first of these occurred in the afternoon of 23 October 2012 on Radio Slovenia. The first television debate took place in the evening of the same day on TV Slovenia. Samo Uhan, a politologist at the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Ljubljana, stated that the first TV debate would not case a shift in support. He described Türks' performance as presidential, Zvers' as an advocacy of the current governing coalition, and Pahor as being burdened by his negative experiences in the previous parliamentary term. Božidar Novak stated that none of the candidates were outstanding in regard to substance, but that Pahor was slightly better than the other two in terms of style. He described Türk as calm, Zver as condescending, and Pahor as likeable.

The second TV debate was organised and broadcast by POP TV on the evening of 25 October 2012. The broadcast featured a number of interactive elements including a live analysis of web based reactions to the three candidates. According to this method, Pahor performed the best, followed closely by Zver, with Türk shown as the least successful among the three.

The third televised live appearance of all three candidates was aired on POP TV on the evening of 2 November 2012. This broadcast had a different format. The candidates were interrogated by a journalist for 25 minutes each and only interacted with each other at the beginning of the show and between the interviews. The above mentioned method of reaction analysis showed that both Pahor and Zver performed better that Türk.

The fourth TV debate aired on the newly opened Planet TV on the evening of 5 November 2012. During the live broadcast, Episcenter conducted a study of how convincing each of the candidates had been. The results showed that Pahor was successful at convincing 45% of the viewers, followed by Türk with 37% and Zver with 18%. The fifth one was again hosted by TV Slovenia on the evening of 6 November.

The final POP TV debate was broadcast live on the evening of 8 November 2012. Aside from the usual confrontation between the candidates for president it also featured a segment where the women who would become the first lady were questioned by the moderator. An analysis of web based responses indicated that Pahor made the best impression, followed by Türk and revealed Zver as the least convincing.

The final TV Slovenia debate was broadcast live on the evening of 9 November 2012. This event also featured a segment which included the companions of the three candidates.

Election silence came into effect at midnight on the night of 9 November 2012 and lasted until 19:00 CET on the evening of 11 November when the polling stations closed.

First round result and reactions

First round winners by electoral unit
Borut Pahor (red)
Danilo Türk (blue)

The first round took place on 11 November. Contrary to predictions, the exit polls indicated that the first round was won by Pahor (41.9%), followed by Türk (37.2%) and Zver (20.8%). After 99.91% of votes counted, Pahor got 40%, followed by Türk with 35.8% and Zver with 24.2%. The voter turnout was record-low at less than 48%. For comparison, the first round of the 2007 election saw 58% of the electorate casting their votes and the 1992 election even more than 85%.

In his first response, Pahor expressed a surprise by the amount of support in the first round and stated that he will aim to continue to be a candidate that is not limited to one side of the political spectrum. Türk mentioned that the low voter turnout indicated the disappointment of people regarding the political situation and that the voters should decide what country they want to live in. Zver thanked his supporters and stated he was "sad" but did not decide which of the remaining two candidates he would endorse in the second round.

In the following days, analysts expressed opinion that Pahor now has better chances in the runoff. Pahor appeared to attract votes from both sides from political spectrum, even one third of the voters of the SDS party. On the other hand, Türk got most of his votes from supporters of Positive Slovenia and from one third of supporters of Pahor's SD. Increasing support of Pahor during the campaign was also attributed to better performance of his in televised debates. Discrepancies between the opinion polls and the results in the first round were attributed to low voter turnout, especially as a part of Türk's supporters presumably stayed at home. Low turnout was also interpreted as people being "fed up" with the political situation in Slovenia.

Ballot paper in the first round of voting

Template:Slovenian presidential election, 2012

References

  1. "Predsednika republike bomo izbirali 11. novembra". Rtvslo.si. Retrieved 2012-07-25.
  2. ^ "Izbirali bomo med Türkom, Pahorjem in Zverom". RTV SLO. 18 October 2012. Retrieved 19 October 2012.
  3. "Zakon o volitvah predsednika republike (ZVPR)" (in Slovene). Uradni list RS, št. 39/1992. 7 August 1992. Retrieved 2012-08-29.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  4. Video: Janković podprl Türka v boju za drugi mandat :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  5. Danilo Türk: predsedniški diplomat, diplomatski predsednik :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  6. Danilo Türk, 1. del: O kandidaturi in sodelovanju z vlado
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  13. Zver: Pričakujem, da bo konkurenca na predsedniških volitvah močna :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  14. ^ Predsednika republike bomo izbirali 11. novembra :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  15. Milan Zver - Štajerec, ki je politično kariero začel v Ljubljani :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  16. Slowenien wählt im Herbst den Staatspräsidenten - Slowenien - derStandard.at › International
  17. "Iz predsedniške tekme izstopila Monika Malešič, kmalu sledi knjiga". Primorske novice. 15 October 2012. Retrieved 19 October 2012.
  18. Marko Kožar odstopil od predsedniške kandidature :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  19. Foto: Predsedniška kampanja se je uradno začela :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  20. Za predsedniški stol se želi potegovati tudi Milan Robič :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  21. 27-letna podjetnica nova kandidatka za predsednico države :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  22. "Kdo je predsedniška kandidatka Fani?". Zurnal24.si (in Slovene). {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  23. Škrinjar, Klara (23 October 2012). "Prvo TV soočenje: brez ostrine, z obrisi razlik". Delo. Retrieved 24 October 2012.
  24. "Drugo televizijsko soočenje (V ŽIVO)". Delo. 25 October 2012. Retrieved 26 October 2012.
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  26. "FOTO in VIDEO: Priznavajo svoje napake, a obljubljajo boljšo prihodnost". 24ur.com. 25 October 2012. Retrieved 26 October 2012.
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  29. "Predsedniški kandidati so si enotni: reforme so potrebne". PlanetSiol.net. 5 November 2012. Retrieved 6 November 2012.
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  32. "O stricih, zdravju in ženah - kandidati so se soočili še zadnjič". MMC RTV Slo. 9 November 2012. Retrieved 9 November 2012.
  33. DVK: Pahor 40,00 %, Türk 35,84 %, Zver 24,16 %! :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  34. Prešteti že skoraj vsi glasovi, vodi Pahor :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  35. DVK: Pahor 40,00 %, Türk 35,84 %, Zver 24,16 %! :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  36. ^ Zver: Lahko rečem, da sem žalosten :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  37. Makarovič in Novak: Pahorju zelo verjetna zmaga v drugem krogu :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  38. ^ Drugi krog? Karte se mešajo na novo!
  39. V drugem krogu spopad na levici | Dnevnik.si
  40. Pavliha: Ljudje imajo "poln kufer". Pribac: Popotnica Pahorja je premierski mandat. :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
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