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The Ghouta chemical attacks occurred on 21 August 2013 during the Syrian civil war, when several opposition-controlled or disputed areas of the Ghouta suburbs of the Markaz Rif Dimashq district around Damascus, Syria, were struck by rockets containing the chemical agent sarin. Hundreds were killed in the attacks, which took place over a short span of time in the early morning. Death tolls ranged from 281 to 1,729 deaths. Many witnesses reported that none of the victims they saw displayed physical wounds, and videos purporting to show victims of the chemical attacks were widely disseminated on YouTube and other websites. According to the activist network SOHR, which estimated 502 killed, 46 of the dead were rebel fighters. If the death toll is confirmed, the incident would be the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran–Iraq War.

Culpability for the attacks is disputed. The Syrian government and opposition almost immediately blamed each other for the attacks. Several governments, mostly in the Western world, said the available evidence showed the attacks were carried out by the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a conclusion echoed by the Arab League and the European Union. The governments of Iran and Russia, Assad's strongest international allies, sided with the government's claim that the attack was a false flag attempt by terrorists to draw foreign powers into the civil war on the rebels' side. The attacks sparked debate in France, the United Kingdom, the United States, and other countries about whether to launch punitive military attacks against government forces. In September 2013, the Syrian government publicly disclosed its chemical weapons stockpile for the first time and declared its intention to join the Chemical Weapons Convention.

The United Nations investigated several attack sites, mere kilometers from the temporary quarters of UN inspectors who had arrived at the Syrian government's invitation to look into alleged chemical weapons use prior to the Ghouta attacks. The UN requested access to sites in Ghouta the day after the attacks. On 23 August, government and rebel forces clashed in Ghouta, the Syrian military continued to shell Ghouta, and the UN called for a ceasefire to allow inspectors to visit the Ghouta sites. The Syrian government granted the UN's request on 25 August. Inspectors worked from August 26 to 31 investigating sites of the attacks.

After completing the investigation three weeks later, the UN reported that it had confirmed the use of sarin in the Ghouta attacks. The Mission "collected clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent sarin were used in the Ein Tarma, Moadamiyah and Zalmalka in the Ghouta area of Damascus." The report's lead author, Åke Sellström, said that the quality of the sarin used in the attack was high but the report did not release technical data. Distinguishing purified military grade sarin from sarin brewed up at home by studying traces left at an attack site is difficult. Based on analyses of the UN's evidence, Human Rights Watch and the New York Times conclude that the rockets that delivered the sarin were launched from areas under government control.

Background

The Ghouta area is composed of densely populated suburbs in the Markaz Rif Dimashq District of the province of Rif Dimashq. Al-Ghouta is a primarily conservative Sunni region, and home to most of Damascus' three million inhabitants. Since early in the civil war, civilians in rebel-held Eastern Ghouta have almost entirely sided with the opposition to Syria's government. The opposition have controlled much of the eastern part of the Rif district since 2012, partly cutting off Damascus from its hinterland. The Ghouta and neighboring areas have been the scene of continuing clashes for more than a year, and regime forces have launched repeated missile assaults trying to dislodge the rebels. On the day of the attack, the Syrian government launched an offensive to capture opposition-held Damascus suburbs.

The attack came one year and one day after U.S. President Barack Obama's Monday August 20, 2012 "red line" speech, in which he warned "the Assad regime -- but also to other players on the ground" that chemical weapons use in Syria, which is one of five non-signatories to the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, would trigger American intervention. Since his speech, and prior to the chemical attacks in Ghouta, chemical weapons were suspected to have been used in at least four attacks in the country.

On 23 April 2013, the New York Times reported that the British and French governments had sent a confidential letter to the United Nations Secretary General, claiming that there was evidence that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons in Aleppo, Homs, and perhaps Damascus. Israel also claimed that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons on 19 March near Aleppo and Damascus. By 25 April the U.S. intelligence assessment was that the Assad government had likely used chemical weapons – specifically sarin gas. However, the White House announced that "much more" work had to be done to verify the intelligence assessments. On 24 April, Syria had refused an investigation team from the UN from entering Syria, though Jeffrey Feltman, UN under-secretary for political affairs, said that a refusal would not prevent an inquiry from being carried out. On 23 March 2013, the Syrian government unusually requested the UN send inspectors to investigate, an incident in town of Khan al-Assal, where it said opposition forces had used chlorine-filled rockets. However, the Syrian government later refused to allow the UN investigation to be expanded to places outside Khan al-Assal.

On 4 June 2013, a U.N. report stated that there are "reasonable grounds" to believe that limited amounts of chemical weapons have been used in at least four attacks in the civil war, but more evidence is needed to determine the exact chemical agents used or who was responsible. Stating that it has not been possible "to determine the precise chemical agents used, their delivery systems or the perpetrator." On 22 June the head of UN human rights investigation, Paulo Pinheiro, said the UN could not determine who used chemical weapons in Syria after the evidence had been delivered by the United States, Britain and France. However, the commission reported that there were "reasonable grounds to believe that chemical agents have been used as weapons".

After clandestinely spending two months in Jobar, Damascus, several reporters for the French news media Le Monde personally witnessed the Syrian army's use of chemical weapons on civilians. French intelligence later said that samples from the Jobar attack in April had confirmed the use of sarin.

On 13 June, the United States announced that there is definitive proof that the Assad government has used limited amounts of chemical weapons on multiple occasions on rebel forces, killing 100 to 150 people. Sarin was the agent used with no proof that the opposition had access to such weapons. Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes did not confirm whether this proof showed that Syria had crossed the "red line" established by President Obama by using chemical weapons. Rhodes stated that: "The president has said that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it has." Tests conducted by France confirmed the United States conclusions, according to the French government. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that "the accusations of Damascus using chemical weapons put forth by the USA are not backed by credible facts." Larov stated that it makes no sense for Syrian government to use chemical weapons when the government already maintains a military advantage over the rebel fighters. The White house has stated the evidence against Assad not ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ but passes ‘common-sense test’.

The attacks

The attacks reportedly occurred between 02:00 and 05:00 in the morning on 21 August 2013, in the rebel-held and mostly Sunni Ghouta agricultural area, just east of Damascus. The area had been under an Army siege backed by Hezbollah for months. The attacks had affected two separate opposition-controlled districts in Damascus Suburbs, located 16 kilometers apart. According to local residents, the Zamalka neighborhood in Eastern Ghouta was struck by rockets at some time between 2 and 3 a.m., and the Moadamiya neighborhood in Western Ghouta was struck by rockets at about 5 a.m., shortly after the completion of the Muslim morning prayer.

Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh, present in Eastern Ghouta, stated, "Hours , we started to visit the medical points in Ghouta to where injured were removed, and we couldn't believe our eyes. I haven't seen such death in my whole life. People were lying on the ground in hallways, on roadsides, in hundreds."

Doctors Without Borders said three hospitals it supports in the eastern Damascus region reported receiving roughly 3,600 patients with "neurotoxic symptoms" over less than three hours on after the morning, when the attack in the eastern Ghouta area took place. Of those, 355 died. The Local Coordination Committees of Syria claimed that of the 1,338 victims, 1,000 were in Zamalka, among which 600 bodies were transferred to medical points in other towns and 400 remained at a Zamalka medical centre. According to a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army, at least six medics died while treating the victims. The deadliness of the attack is believed to have been increased due to Syrians fleeing the regime bombardment by hiding in basements, where the heavier-than-air chemical agents sank to these lower-lying, poorly ventilated areas. Some of the victims died while sleeping.

The day after the chemical attacks, 22 August, the Syrian army bombarded the Ghouta area.

Timing

The BBC News interpreted darkness and prayer calls in videos to be consistent with a pre-dawn timing of the attacks. (There are five daily prayers in Islam, including a dawn prayer, a sunset prayer, and a nighttime prayer.) BBC News considered it significant that the "three main Facebook pages of Syrian opposition groups" reported "fierce clashes between FSA rebels and government forces, as well as shelling by government forces" at 01:15 local time (UTC+3) on 21 August 2013 in the eastern Ghouta areas that were later claimed to have been attacked with chemical weapons.

Abu Sakhr, a paramedic interviewed by the VDC, estimated chemical weapons to have first been delivered by mortars at about 02:00. Another interviewee, Maher, said that Ein Tarma had been hit by chemical weapons before 02:30.

BBC News stated that three Syrian opposition Facebook pages reported the first claims of chemical weapons use within a few minutes of one another. At 02:45 UTC+3, the Ein Tarma Co-ordination Committee stated that "a number of residents died in suffocation cases due to chemical shelling of the al-Zayniya area ." At 02:47, the Sham News Network reported an "urgent" message that Zamalka had been attacked with chemical weapons shells. At 02:55, the LCC made "a similar report." The Los Angeles Times timed the attacks at "about" 03:00.

Motivation

There has been some debate about the motivation for the attacks. According to military experts, both sides are locked in a political and military stalemate, and the opposition cannot win without western military intervention or arming them. Given previous US comments about the use of chemical weapons constituting a "red line" prompting intervention, the opposition would have an incentive to stage an attack and make it appear that the Syrian government had crossed the line. The Syrian government, on the other hand, would more straightforwardly have the motivation to use chemical weapons as tactically required if it believed that the US threat was an empty one.

Whilst much of the debate has assumed that the attacks were carried out deliberately (thereby raising questions of motivation), a former UN weapons inspector has pointed out the possibility of an accidental launch by Syrian government forces. Rod Barton said that mixups between chemical and conventional weapons had sometimes happened in the Iran-Iraq war, as the rounds themselves are distinguished only by markings whose interpretation would be limited to forces attached to chemical weapons units. In the chaos of war, rounds could sometimes end up in the hands of forces unaware of what they contained.

Government attack

Some have questioned the motive and timing behind the alleged Syrian government involvement in the Ghouta attacks, since a team of United Nations chemical weapons inspectors were staying in a hotel just a few miles from the attack. However, since the agreement the Syrian government reached with UN inspectors limited their mandate to three specific sites to establish if a chemical attack took place, but not who was responsible, the attack might simply have been launched in an area designated as off-limits.

The French newspaper Le Monde reported in the months before the Ghouta attacks that its journalists embedded among opposition fighters had personally witnessed several chemical attacks on a smaller scale by the Syrian Army against rebel positions. Der Spiegel reported a suspicion by a gas expert that minimal use of chemical weapons was seen by the Assad regime as the best way get the West used to its deployment, triggering an ongoing international dispute over whether nerve gas was being used at all. Saying that at some point, "the commotion over the use of chemical weapons per se" would "have dissipated.". Former US intelligence officer Joseph Holliday wrote in a study that "Assad has been extremely calculating with the use of force", "introducing chemical weapons gradually."

A CNN reporter pointed to the fact that government forces did not appear to be in imminent danger of being overrun by opposition in the areas in question, in which a stalemate had set. He questioned why the army would risk such an action that could cause international intervention. The reporter also questioned if the Army would use sarin gas just a few kilometers from the center of Damascus on what was a windy day. However, the day of the attack was the one day that week when the wind blew from government-held central Damascus towards the rebel-held eastern suburbs. While a Huffington Post reporter pointed to the fact that the effected area was with strong opposition leanings, and is a major supply route to the front lines in the fighting in east Damascus. Assad's forces in both Mt Qassioun and in the Mezzeh airport have this area very zeroed in for rocket (typically Grads) and artillery strikes.

Several reporters also pointed to the timing of a purported assassination attempt against Assad earlier in August, suggesting the attack on the rebel enclaves came as a reprisal for the assassination attempt. A former Syrian intelligence officer claimed the attack came due to "internal reasons", to holding the "thinned-out front around Damascus" and "strengthening the morale of the fanatics in their ranks", following weeks of rebel attacks on Assad's home province of Latakia.

A reporter for The Daily Telegraph also pointed to the questionable timing given government forces had recently beaten back opposition in some areas around Damascus and recaptured territory. "Using chemical weapons might make sense when he is losing, but why launch gas attacks when he is winning anyway?" The reporter also questioned why would the attacks happen just three days after the inspectors arrived in Syria. Der Spiegel questioned this analysis, arguing that Assad's forces have been losing ground for several months and may have been motivated to use chemical weapons to forestall rebel advances in the Damascus suburbs.

Columnist and former IDF soldier Jeffrey Goldberg argued that Assad would use chemical weapons because nobody "will do a damn thing to stop him." Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh also argued that the Assad government would launch a chemical attack because "it knows that the international community would not do anything about it, like it did nothing about all the previous crimes." Israeli reporter Ron Ben-Yishai stated that the motive to use chemical weapons could be the "army's inability to seize the rebel's stronghold in Damascus' eastern neighbourhoods," or fear of rebel encroachment into Damascus with tacit civilian support, an argument backed by declassified intelligence reports from the United States.

Capability

Syria is one of five states that have not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits the development, production, stockpiling, transfer, and use of chemical weapons, although in 1968 it acceded to the 1925 Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases. In 2012 Syria publicly stated it possessed such weapons. According to French intelligence, the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) is responsible for producing toxic agents for use in war. A group named "Branch 450" is allegedly responsible for filling munitions with chemicals and maintaining security of the chemical agent stockpiles. As of September 2013, French intelligence puts the Syrian stockpile at 1,000 tonnes, including Yperite, VX and "several hundred tonnes of sarin".

Western intelligence agencies have publicly dismissed the possibility of rebel responsibility for the attack in Ghouta, stating that rebels are incapable of an attack of its scale. However, according to former defense correspondent Kenneth R. Timmerman, sources with access to intelligence reports had told him that "intelligence reports from French and Jordanian military intelligence show that the jihadist al-Nusra front rebels acquired similar rockets and chemical agents earlier this year when they overran a chemical weapons depot in Aleppo on May 17 and captured a rocket unit in Daraa no long afterward". Timmerman also said that Congress should ask questions about the evidence underlying the US intelligence summary, including the arrest in May of rebels allegedly trying to bring 2 kg of sarin into Syria from Turkey. (The Turkish Ambassador to Moscow later said that tests showed the chemical seized from Al-Nusra militants was anti-freeze, not sarin; according to former deputy Prime Minister Abdüllatif Şener, Turkey has supported al-Nusra with "a large volume of heavy weapons".) In September six of those arrested in May were charged with attempting to acquire chemicals which could be used to produce sarin; the indictment said that it was "possible to produce sarin gas by combining the materials in proper conditions." The indictment said that "The suspects have pleaded not guilty saying that they had not been aware the materials they had tried to obtain could have been used to make sarin gas. Suspects have been consistently providing conflicting and incoherent facts on this matter." The suspects were said to be linked to Al-Nusra and to Ahrar al-Sham.

One expert, Jeremy Salt, cited circumstantial evidence for the contention that rebels had chemical weapons capabilities, including the March 2013 Khan al-Assal chemical attack which a Russian investigation said had been a sarin attack carried out by rebels, and the Syrian military's claim in June that they had seized "two barrels of sarin gas" from a “rebel hideout in Hama." Retired Lebanese general Hisham Jaber, cited by Associated Press on 8 September, pointed out that 70,000 Syrian soldiers had defected to the opposition, some of whom could have had chemical weapons training; he also asserted that the opposition had obtained chemical weapons from Libya, where weapons stocks after the fall of Ghaddafi had fallen into the hands of a range of different groups.

Evidence

Symptoms

Doctors Without Borders who were operating three hospitals in the eastern Damascus region, which received roughly 3,600 patients over less than three hours on after the attack, reported seeing "large number of patients arriving with symptoms including convulsions, excessive saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress." Symptoms reported by Ghouta residents and doctors to Human Rights Watch included "suffocation, muscle spasms and frothing at the mouth."

Witness statements to The Guardian about symptoms included "people who were sleeping in their homes died in their beds," headaches and nausea, "foam coming out of mouths and noses," a "smell something like vinegar and rotten eggs," suffocation, "bodies were turning blue," a "smell like cooking gas" and redness and itching of the eyes. Richard Spencer of The Telegraph summarised witness statements, stating, "The poison ... may have killed hundreds, but it has left twitching, fainting, confused but compelling survivors."

On 22 August, the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria published numerous testimonies. It summarised doctors' and paramedics' descriptions of the symptoms as "vomiting, foamy salivation, severe agitation, pupils, redness of the eyes, dyspnea, neurological convulsions, respiratory and heart failure, blood out of the nose and mouth and, in some cases, hallucinations and memory loss".

Analysis of symptoms

Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior associate for the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, said what the group of doctors in Syria is reporting "is what a textbook would list to say nerve-agent poison." Symptoms like incredibly small pupils help say it is not agents like mustard gas or chlorine gas, but instead more like sarin, soman, VX and taubun.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Director of Operations Bart Janssens stated that MSF "can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack. However, the reported symptoms of the patients, in addition to the epidemiological pattern of the events – characterised by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers – strongly indicate mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent."

Gwyn Winfield, editorial director at the magazine CBRNe World, which reports on chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosives use, analyzed the videos and wrote on the magazine's site: "Clearly respiratory distress, some nerve spasms and a half-hearted washdown (involving water and bare hands?), but it could equally be a riot control agent as a (chemical warfare agent)."

Delivery method

Abu Omar of the Free Syrian Army stated to The Guardian that the rockets involved in the attack were unusual because "you could hear the sound of the rocket in the air but you could not hear any sound of explosion" and no obvious damage to buildings occurred. Human Rights Watch's witnesses reported "symptoms and delivery methods consistent with the use of chemical nerve agents." Activists and local residents contacted by The Guardian said that "the remains of 20 rockets found in the affected areas. Many mostly intact, suggesting that they did not detonate on impact and potentially dispersed gas before hitting the ground."

Some analysts speculated on 21 August that a stockpile of chemical agents may have been hit by shelling, whether controlled by the opposition or the government. Richard Guthrie, a chemical weapons specialist formerly with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, told New Scientist that "the day of the attack was the one day that week when the wind blew from government-held central Damascus towards the rebel-held eastern suburbs." New Scientist also noted that there appeared to be no government troop casualties from the attack.

CNN noted that some opposition activists claimed the use of "Agent 15," also known as BZ, in the attacks, for which some experts expressed doubt the Syrian government possesses, and the symptoms caused by said chemical are very different from the symptoms reported in this attack.

According to CBS News, chemical and biological weapons experts have been relatively consistent in their analysis, saying only a military force with access to and knowledge of missile delivery systems and the sarin gas suspected in Ghouta could have carried out an attack capable of killing hundreds of people. Additionally British and U.S. officials stated that there is no credible evidence that any opposition group to conduct a chemical weapons attack on this scale.

According to Human Rights Watch report, two types of projectiles were used in the Chemical attacks. The first was a 330mm rocket "that appears to have a warhead designed to be loaded with and deliver a large payload of liquid chemical agent". The second was a Soviet-produced 140mm rocket that can deliver three possible warheads, one of them specifically designed to carry 2.2 kg of sarin. Adding that "Human Rights Watch and arms experts monitoring the use of weapons in Syria have not documented Syrian opposition forces to be in the possession of the 140mm and 330mm rockets used in the attack or their associated launchers."

The Turkish government's Anadolu Agency published an unconfirmed reported on 30 August, pointing to the Syrian 155th Missile Brigade in Kufeyte and the 4th Armored Division on Qasyoun Mountain, as the perpetrators of the two attacks. It said the attack had involved 15-20 missiles with chemical warheads at around 2.45 am on 21 August, targeting residential areas between Duma-Harasta and Zamalka in East and West Ghouta. It specified that the 155th Missile Brigade had used FROG-7/Luna and/or M600 missiles fired from Kufeyte, while other rockets with a 15-to-70-kilometer range were fired by the 4th Armored Division from Qasyoun. The agency did not explain its source.

Video

Murad Abu Bilal, Khaled Naddaf and other VDC and local coordination committee (LCC) media staff went to Zamalka to film and obtain other documentary evidence of the attacks immediately after they were known, early on 21 August. Almost all the journalists died from inhalation of the neurotoxins apart from Murad Abu Bilal, who was the only Zamalka LCC media member to survive. The videos were published on YouTube, attracting world-wide media attention.

Experts who have analysed the first video said it shows the strongest evidence yet consistent with the use of a lethal toxic agent. Visible symptoms reportedly included rolling eyes, foaming at the mouth, and tremors. There was at least one image of a child suffering miosis, the pin-point pupil effect associated with the nerve agent Sarin, a powerful neurotoxin reportedly used before in Syria. Ralph Trapp, a former scientist at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said the footage showed what a chemical weapons attack on a civilian area would look like, and went on to note "This is one of the first videos I've seen from Syria where the numbers start to make sense. If you have a gas attack you would expect large numbers of people, children and adults, to be affected, particularly if it's in a built-up area."

Some experts, among them Jean Pascal Zanders, initially stated that evidence that sarin was used, as claimed by pro-rebel sources, was still lacking and highlighted the lack of second-hand contaminations typically associated with use of weapons-grade nerve agents: "I remain sceptical that it was a nerve agent like sarin. I would have expected to see more convulsions," he said. "The other thing that seems inconsistent with sarin is that, given the footage of first responders treating victims without proper protective equipment, you would expect to see considerable secondary casualties from contamination – which does not appear to be evident." However, after Zanders saw footage imminently after the attack, he changed his mind, saying: "The video footage and pictures this time are of a far better quality. You can clearly see the typical signs of asphyxiation, including a pinkish blueish tinge to the skin colour. There is one image of an adult woman where you can see the tell-tale blackish mark around her mouth, all of which suggests death from asphyxiation." Zanders however cautioned that these symptoms covered a range of neurotoxicants, including some available for civilian use as pest control agents, and said that until the UN reported its analysis of samples, "I can't make a judgement.. I have to keep an open mind."

According to a report by The Daily Telegraph, "videos uploaded to YouTube by activists showed rows of motionless bodies and medics attending to patients apparently in the grip of seizures. In one piece of footage, a young boy appeared to be foaming at the mouth while convulsing."

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of British Chemical and Biological counterterrorism forces, told BBC that the images were very similar to previous incidents he had witnessed, although he could not verify the footage.

Intelligence

Two specific pieces of intelligence-based evidence were noted by the media. One was a phone call allegedly between Syrian officials which Israel's Unit 8200 was said to have intercepted and passed to the US. The other was a phone call which the German Bundesnachrichtendienst said it had intercepted, between a high-ranking representative of Hezbollah and the Iranian embassy, in which the purported Hezbollah official said that poison gas had been used and that Assad's order to attack with chemical weapons had been a strategic error.

UK intelligence report

A report on the attacks by the UK's Joint Intelligence Committee was published on 29 August prior to a vote on intervention by the House of Commons. The report said it was "highly likely" that the attacks had been carried out by the Syrian government, resting in part on the firm view that the Syrian opposition was not capable of carrying out a chemical weapons attack on this scale, and on the JIC's view that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war on a small scale on 14 previous occasions. Analysis of the Ghouta attacks themselves was based largely on reviewing video footage and publicly available witness evidence. The report conceded problems with motivation for the attacks, saying there was "no obvious political or military trigger for regime use of CW on an apparently larger scale now". The report was met with substantial skepticism in the British media, with the Daily Mail explicitly comparing it with the "dodgy dossier" the UK government had published in 2003 prior to the Iraq War. A vote in the House of Commons to approve UK participation in military action against Syria was narrowly rejected, in part because of some MPs' view that the case for Syrian government culpability was not sufficiently strong to justify approving action. Prime Minister David Cameron himself had been forced to concede that "In the end there is no 100 percent certainty about who is responsible." The loss of the vote made Cameron the first British prime minister in over 150 years to be prevented from going to war by Parliament.

US intelligence reports

A US "Government Assessment" of the Ghouta attacks was published by the White House on 30 August, with a longer classified version made available to members of Congress. The United States' intelligence assessment on the attacks gave a possible motive for the attack based on intercepted communications, saying that it "was a desperate effort to push back rebels from several areas in the capital’s densely packed eastern suburbs – and also suggests that the high civilian death toll surprised and panicked senior Syrian officials, who called off the attack and then tried to cover it up."

A number of members of Congress expressed skepticism about the US intelligence reports, including Senator Tom Harkin in a statement on 1 September ("I have just attended a classified Congressional briefing on Syria that quite frankly raised more questions than it answered. I found the evidence presented by Administration officials to be circumstantial.") and Republican Representative Michael C. Burgess ("I saw the classified documents yesterday. They were pretty thin"). On 6 September Democratic Party Representative Alan Grayson also criticised the US report, including the classified one, which he described as 12 pages long. Grayson said the unclassified summary relied on "intercepted telephone calls, 'social media' postings and the like, but not one of these is actually quoted or attached — not even clips from YouTube. (As to whether the classified summary is the same, I couldn’t possibly comment, but again, draw your own conclusion.)" Grayson cited as a specific example the intercept of a phone call between the Syrian 155th Brigade and the Syrian ministry of defence, the transcript of which was not available to members of Congress, leaving him unable to judge whether a report in The Daily Caller that the implications of the call had been misrepresented in the report were accurate or not.

The US government position was criticized on 6 September by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), a group of retired intelligence professionals including Ray McGovern and Thomas Andrews Drake which had in 2003 criticized US intelligence on the Iraq war. VIPS released a memorandum stating that "some of our former co-workers are telling us, categorically, that contrary to the claims of your administration, the most reliable intelligence shows that Bashar al-Assad was NOT responsible for the chemical incident that killed and injured Syrian civilians on August 21", and described "a strong circumstantial case that the August 21 chemical incident was a pre-planned provocation by the Syrian opposition and its Saudi and Turkish supporters". The memorandum also said that "CIA officers working on the Syria issue ... tell us that CIA Director John Brennan is perpetrating a pre-Iraq-War-type fraud on members of Congress, the media, the public..." Unnamed active intelligence officials had previously told the Associated Press that the intelligence was "not a slam dunk" and that the US report did not discuss the possibilities of a rogue element in the Syrian military executing the attack, or of the attack being staged by rebels: " U.S. intelligence officials ... have even talked about the possibility that rebels could have carried out the attack in a callous and calculated attempt to draw the West into the war."

On 9 September journalist Gareth Porter wrote for Inter Press Service (IPS) that "Former intelligence officials told IPS that that the paper does not represent a genuine intelligence community assessment but rather one reflecting a predominantly Obama administration influence." One former official said that the description as a 'Government Assessment' rather than an 'intelligence assessment' "means that this is not an intelligence community document"; another said that the White House had apparently "decided on a position and cherry-picked the intelligence to fit it". Porter pointed out that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence normally releases intelligence reports, and that Porter's attempts to clarify with the Office why this report had been released by the White House Press Secretary were met with stonewalling.

On 29 August former defense correspondent Kenneth R. Timmerman wrote in the The Daily Caller that the contents of the phone call intercepted by Israel had been misrepresented by the US government in its intelligence summary. Citing "former military officers with access to the original intelligence reports", he said the summary had been leaked prior to its release, and that it claimed that the phone call showed the Syrian 155th military brigade had carried out the attacks. Timmerman wrote that "According to the transcript of the original Unit 8200 report, the major 'hotly denied firing any of his missiles' and invited the general staff to come and verify that all his weapons were present. The report contains a note at the end that the major was interrogated by Syrian intelligence for three days, then returned to command of his unit. 'All of his weapons were accounted for,' the report stated."

U.S. secretary of state John Kerry stated on 4 September that hair samples and blood samples from the attack had tested positive for sarin. At a British laboratory, soil and cloth samples from the attack tested positive for sarin and sarin's immediate breakdown product.

On 8 September the Associated Press noted that "the public has yet to see a single piece of concrete evidence produced by U.S. intelligence - no satellite imagery, no transcripts of Syrian military communications - connecting the government of President Bashar Assad to the alleged chemical weapons attack..." It said that requests to the US government to release satellite images and communications intercept transcripts (which the US said formed the basis for its assessment) had been denied, "though the administration produced copious amounts of satellite imagery earlier in the war to show the results of the Syrian regime's military onslaught."

French intelligence report

On 2 September the French government published a 9-page report blaming the Syrian government for the Ghouta attacks. An unnamed French government official told Fox News that the analysis was carried out by the Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) and Direction du renseignement militaire (DRM), and "was based on satellite imagery, video images, and on-the-ground sources — plus samples collected from the alleged chemical attacks in April." Analysis of samples collected from two separate April attacks had confirmed the use of sarin. The report also described the Syrian chemical weapons programme and command structure.

German intelligence

German newspaper Der Spiegel reported on 3 September that BND leader Gerhald Schindler told them that based on BND evidence Germany now shared the US, Britain and France's view that the attacks were carried out by the Syrian government. However, they also said the attack may have been much more potent than intended, speculating that there may have been an error in mixing the chemical weapons used.

Around the same time as this call was reported, the Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported that German intelligence indicated that Assad had likely not personally ordered the attacks. According to Bild, "intelligence interception specialists" relying on communications intercepted by the German vessel Oker said that Syrian military commanders had repeatedly been asking permission to launch chemical attacks for around four months, with permission always being denied from the presidential palace. The sources concluded that the 21 August attack had probably not been approved by Bashar al-Assad personally.

UN investigation

Two days before the attack, a UN team headed by Åke Sellström arrived in Damascus with permission, from the Syrian government, to investigate earlier alleged chemical weapons use. On the day of the attack, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed "the need to investigate soon as possible," hoping for consent from the Syrian government. The next day, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay urged government and opposition forces to allow investigation, and Ban requested the government provide immediate access. On 23 August, clashes between rebel and government forces continued in and around Ghouta, government shelling continued, and UN inspectors were denied access for a second day. Ban called for a ceasefire to allow the inspectors to visit the attack sites. On 25 August the government agreed to cease hostilities with the presence of UN inspectors.

On 26 August, the UN team visited clinics and makeshift field hospitals in the Ghouta districts, collected samples and conducted interviews with witnesses, survivors and doctors. The inspectors came under sniper fire that forced them to replace their vehicle before continuing their investigation four hours later, prompting a rebuke from Ban toward the fighters. After returning, inspectors spoke with 20 victims of the attacks and took blood and hair samples, soil samples, and samples from domestic animals.

A doctor told The Guardian that on 26 August, the Syrian regime ordered inspectors to leave the site of Mua'adamiyat al-Sham 90 minutes after their arrival, and prevented them from reaching six suspected attack sites. According to the doctor, regime security forces told UN inspectors they could not guarantee their safety.

With the investigation still ongoing, special UN envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi said on 28 August that evidence suggested "some kind of substance" was used to kill hundreds of people in Ghouta. He did not say what evidence he was referring to, but he said it did not come from Western intelligence reports and noted that inspectors had gathered samples for analysis two days prior.

United States officials told the The Wall Street Journal that the White House "became convinced" that the Syrian government was trying to hide the evidence of chemical weapons use by shelling the sites and delaying their inspection.

UN report

The UN investigation into the chemical attacks in Ghouta was published on 16 September. The report stated that "the environmental, chemical and medical samples, we have collected, provide clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent sarin were used in Ein Tarma, Moadamiyah and Zamalka in the Ghouta area of Damascus". The inspectors were able to identify several surface-to-surface rockets at the affected sites as 140mm BM-14 rockets originally manufactured in Russia and 330mm rockets probably manufactured domestically. The truck-launched 330mm rockets with about 50 to 60 litres of sarin and 140mm Soviet-produced rockets carrying a smaller sarin-filled warhead are both known to be in the arsenal of the Syrian armed forces. Neither weapon has been identified as in the possession of the insurgency forces.

The investigation noted that azimuth of three of the rockets could be determined based on their position embedded into the ground and/or the pattern of craters they created as they impacted the ground at a low angle. Independent analysts have noted that these azimuths intersect deep in Syrian-controlled territory, near Mount Qasioun, and that this region has been the target of Israeli airstrikes against chemical weapons-capable surface-to-surface rocket launchers.

Chemical analysis of the sarin gas retrieved from recovered fragments of the rockets and surrounding environment showed that it was of high purity and quality, and included chemical stabilizers consistent with military grade gas of industrial origin. According to Human Rights Watch, hundreds of kilograms of sarin were used in the attack, which it said suggested government responsibility, as opposition forces were not known to possess significant amounts of sarin.

The Russian government dismissed the initial UN report after it was released, calling it "one-sided" and "distorted". On 17 September, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated his government's belief that the opposition carried out the attacks as a "provocation".

Intelligence reports

Intelligence agencies in the United Kingdom, Israel, United States, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government was most likely responsible for the attacks. Intelligence reports that assessed the government had orchestrated the attack presented suggestions as to why it might have used chemical weapons, focusing on the idea that the Syrian military was concerned about opposition strength in the Damascus suburbs and frustrated with its difficulty in dislodging rebel fighters. The French intelligence included satellite imagery showing the attacks coming from government-controlled areas to the east and west of Damascus and targeting rebel-held zones and observed that 'Assad's forces had since bombed the areas to wipe out evidence'. In addition to the intelligence agency's conclusions, the NGO Human Rights Watch also concluded that the evidence strongly suggests the Syrian government carried out the attack.

Intelligence agencies assesses that Assad Government has used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year. British put that number at least 14 occasions from 2012, adding that "A clear pattern of regime use has therefore been established". U.S. assess that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons "primarily to gain the upper hand or break a stalemate in areas where it has struggled to seize and hold strategically valuable territory."

Intelligence agencies agree that video evidence is consistent with the use of a nerve agent, such as sarin. And U.S. laboratory tests showed traces of sarin, in blood and hair samples collected from emergency workers who responded to the Aug. 21 attacks. Britain put the number of fatalities at least 350. France confirmed 281 fatalities based according to video footage they studied, acknowledging up to 1,500 total. While American preliminary assessment determined that 1,429 people were killed, including at least 426 children.

The Russian and Syrian governments both accused the Syrian opposition of responsibility for the attacks. According to the The Guardian, as of 3 September neither had "publicly produced any evidence to support their claims."

The American and European intelligence reports were criticized by the Syrian government and its allies, especially the Russian Federation.

Legal status

Attacks

Human Rights Watch stated that "Syria is not among the 189 countries that are party to the 1993 Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling, and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (Chemical Weapons Convention). Any use of chemical weapons is unconscionable and contradicts the standards set by the Chemical Weapons Convention."

International Criminal Court referral

Human Rights Watch stated that the UN Security Council should refer the Syria situation to the International Criminal Court (ICC) "to ensure accountability for all war crimes and crimes against humanity." Amnesty International also said that the Syria situation should be referred to the ICC because "Long term, the best way for the United States to signal its abhorrence for war crimes and crimes against humanity and to promote justice in Syria, would be to reaffirm its support for the Rome Statute establishing the International Criminal Court." However as the amendment to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court explicitly making it a war crime to use chemical weapons in an internal conflict has not been ratified by any major state nor Syria, the legal situation is complex and reliant on being a part of a wider war crime.

Reactions

Domestic

Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi was quoted by the official state news agency, Syrian Arab News Agency, as saying that "the government did not and would not use such weapons – in the case they did not even exist. Everything that has been said is absurd, primitive, illogical and fabricated. What we say is what we mean: there is no use of such things (chemical weapons) at all, at least not by the Syrian army or the Syrian state, and it's easy to prove and it is not that complicated." SANA called the reports of chemical attacks as "untrue and designed to derail the ongoing UN inquiry." A Syrian military official appeared on state television denouncing the reports as "a desperate opposition attempt to make up for rebel defeats on the ground." Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad declared it a tactic by the rebels to turn around the civil war which he said "they were losing" and that, though the government had admitted to having stocks of chemical weapons, stated they would never be used "inside Syria". Democratic Union Party leader Salih Muslim said he doubted that the Syrian government carried out the chemical attack.

The National Coalition called the attack a "coup de grace that kills all hopes for a political solution in Syria." The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said of the incident that the Syrian armed forces have committed the "most violent military assault" since the beginning of the uprising. Their statement in regards to the incident read that "we assure the world that silence and inaction in the face of such gross and large-scale war crimes, committed in this instance by the Syrian regime, will only embolden the criminals to continue in this path. The international community is thus complicit in these crimes because of its polarisation, silence and inability to work on a settlement that would lead to the end of the daily bloodshed in Syria."

International

The international community condemned the attacks. United States President Barack Obama said the U.S. military should strike targets in Syria to retaliate for the government's purported use of chemical weapons, a proposal publicly supported by French President François Hollande, but condemned by the Syrian government's closest allies, Russia and Iran. The Arab League stated it would support military action against Syria in the event of UN support, though members Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Tunisia and Algeria oppose intervention.

At the end of August, the House of Commons of the United Kingdom voted against military intervention in Syria. In early September, the United States Congress began debating a proposed Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against the Government of Syria to Respond to Use of Chemical Weapons (S.J.Res 21), although votes on the resolution were indefinitely postponed amid opposition from many legislators and tentative agreement between Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin on an alternative proposal, under which Syria would declare and surrender its chemical weapons to be destroyed under international supervision.

In contrast to the positions of their governments, polls in early September indicated that most people in the U.S., U.K. and France opposed military intervention in Syria. One poll indicated that 50% of Americans could support military intervention with cruise missiles only, "meant to destroy military units and infrastructure that have been used to carry out chemical attacks." In a survey of American military personnel, around 75% said they opposed air strikes on Syria, with 80% saying an attack would not be "in the U.S. national interest". In contrast to their government, most Russians supported neither side in the conflict, with less than 10% saying they supported Assad.

Speculation

In the interval between the attacks on August 21, 2013 and the UN's initial report on September 16, there was significant speculation in the media and by public officials regarding alternate theories surrounding the attack. Early reports, later discredited, that the casualties were caused by leaking or accidentally opened, or intentionally released canisters of chemical weapons stored by rebel forces in tunnels were widely reported. Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity reported in an open letter on September 6 that stated, "There is a growing body of evidence from numerous sources in the Middle East — mostly affiliated with the Syrian opposition and its supporters — providing a strong circumstantial case that the August 21 chemical incident was a pre-planned provocation by the Syrian opposition and its Saudi and Turkish supporters." and "We are unaware of any reliable evidence that a Syrian military rocket capable of carrying a chemical agent was fired into the area." Upon investigation, the sources for this story were from the web sites Infowars and the Centre for Research on Globalization. These articles, in turn, were both based on a single article published by Mint Press News in a report described by author and intelligence analyst Muhammad Idrees Ahmad as "implausible" and debunked by Syrian war analyst Eliot Higgins.

These reports of accidental or false flag operations by rebel groups in cooperation with outside groups were popularized by Rush Limbaugh and mentioned in blogs by Michael Moore and Pamela Gellar. American politicians including Dennis J. Kucinich, Ron Paul, Rand Paul, and Pat Buchanan made similar claims.

The claims of two European writers held hostage by the rebel Abu Ammar Brigade also attracted some attention. After being released in early September 2013, Pierre Piccinin, a writer from Belgium, and Domenico Quirico, a journalist from Italy, said they overheard their captors describe the attacks as a rebel "provocation", although Quirico said he was unsure of their credibility.

See also

• Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons
• Syria and weapons of mass destruction
• List of massacres during the Syrian civil war
• Chemical attack on Behbahan battalion – a 1986 incident during the Iran–Iraq War
• Halabja chemical attack - a 1988 chemical weapons attack on Iraqi Kurds which resulted in 3,000 - 5,000 deaths
• Sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway – a 1995 terrorist incident

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221. Wapshott, Nicholas (29 March 2013). "The return of isolationism". Reuters. Archived from the original on 4 September 2013. Retrieved 4 September 2013. According to a recent speech in Cincinnati, Paul thinks that, for the GOP to win younger voters, "even bigger to me than the social issues is the idea of war." "If we didn't have to be everywhere all the time, if maybe we tried to reserve it for when our national interests were impacted or a vital interest of ours was . . . – and if Republicans didn't seem so eager to go to war – I think we'd attract more young people." He would prefer it "if we had a less bellicose approach, if we were for a strong defense but a little bit less aggressive defense around the world." Paul is not suggesting pacifism. What he means by "a less aggressive foreign policy" is that he wishes America would stop taking its international responsibilities so seriously because it costs taxpayers a lot of money. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
222. AFP, 9 September 2013, Freed Belgian, Italian recount Syria kidnap ordeal

• Use dmy dates from September 2013
• 2013 in Syria
• Mass murder in 2013
• Massacres of the Syrian civil war
• Military operations involving chemical weapons