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The 40th Canadian federal election, barring war or insurrection, must be called by February 13, 2011, five years after the return of the writs from the 39th federal election held on January 23, 2006. Traditionally in Canada the Prime Minister can select an election date of his or her choosing, usually at the four-year mark or when he or she believes they have the best chance of winning the election. However, as the preceding parliament will be led by a minority government, it is possible that an election will occur sooner as the opposition parties can bring down the government on a vote of confidence or that the Prime Minister will request that the Governor-General dissolve parliament for an early election in an attempt to win a majority.

On election night, more than 65% of eligible Canadian voters went to the polls to cast their vote in Canada's 39th federal general election. The Conservatives received the most votes, with 36% of the vote and 124 seats (now 125 from the switch of Liberal MP David Emerson). The Liberals won 103 seats (now 101), taking 30% of the vote. The Bloc Quebecois lost 3 seats, and lowering their score to 51 seats (now 50), with 11% of the vote. The New Democratic Party retained all their previous seats, in addition to 11 more, making their total 29 seats, with 18% of the vote. The Green Party received 5% of the vote, a minimal increase from the previous election, but this did not translate into any seats. Other parties constituted 1% of the total vote.

Canadians next chance to go to the polls will be Canada's 40th federal election, widely anticipated to take place in either 2007 or 2008. However, in the absence of the government falling on a confidence motion thus triggering an election, Stephen Harper's government could formally last until Winter 2011.

The parliament preceding this election is led by the smallest minority ever in the Canadian House of Commons — a government with just 40.6% of the seats — and led by the Conservative Party of Canada. Though the average length of a minority parliament in Canada is 1 year, 5 months and 22 days, minorities led by the former Progressive Conservative Party tended to be much shorter: the longest previous Conservative minority was just 6 months and 19 days. The 39th Parliament became Canada's longest serving Conservative minority on October 24, 2006.

On May 30, 2006, the Conservatives tabled Bill C-16 which would amend the Canada Elections Act which would provide for fixed elections. The bill states that there will be an election in 2009, and it would be the first to have a fixed election date, the third Monday in October (October 19, 2009). However, the House may still fall before then, and there may be an election still in 2007 or 2008. The bill is currently in its first reading.

It has been rumoured by political pundits that Harper would like to have an election in fall 2006 or spring 2007 in hopes of attaining a majority of the Commons seats. It has been speculated that he would hold off on an election though until Quebec has a provincial election as to measure the strength of federalist feelings in that province

Timeline

• February 6, 2006 - Harper Cabinet is sworn in. Liberal David Emerson crosses the floor to join the new government thus changing the standings in the Canadian House of Commons to Conservatives 125, Liberals 102, BQ 51, NDP 29, Independent 1. This could potentially be very relevant in terms of numbers, as it now allows a Conservative-NDP voting block to command a majority.
• February 19, 2006 - Bloc Québécois House Leader Michel Gauthier announces that his party will vote to keep the government in office for a "good while". So long as the Bloc votes with the government on confidence measures, they will pass.
• April 3, 2006 - Peter Milliken is re-elected Speaker of the Canadian House of Commons becoming only the third Opposition MP to serve as Speaker. The Speaker only votes in the event of a tie and then must vote to support the "status quo". The election of a Liberal Speaker effectively gives the Conservatives an additional cushion by denying the Liberals a vote. Numerically, the Conservatives can now pass legislation and win motions of confidence with the support of any one Opposition party, i.e. the Conservatives and the NDP combined have enough seats to win a vote, as do the Tories and BQ combined or the Tories and the Liberals (assuming all MPs are present and vote without any defections).
• August 28, 2006 Bloc Member of Parliament Benoît Sauvageau dies in a car accident.
• September 20, 2006 Liberal MP for London North Centre Joe Fontana resigns to run for mayor of London, Ontario.
• October 18, 2006 Conservative MP for Halton Garth Turner is suspended from the Conservative Party. He chooses to sit temporarily as Independent, but has been courted by the Green Party.

Target seats

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 30 seats in which they came closest to winning but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.

Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin of victory as a percentage of the vote.

Cabinet ministers elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2006

1. Tony Clement, Health and Federal Economic Initiaitve for Northern Ontario: 0.1% over Lib in Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON
2. Lawrence Cannon, Transport, Infrastructure and Communities: 5.0% over BQ in Pontiac, QC
3. Jim Flaherty, Finance: 5.7% over Lib in Whitby—Oshawa, ON
4. Rob Nicholson, House Leader: 5.9% over Lib in Niagara Falls, ON
5. Carol Skelton, Revenue and Western Diversification: 6.5% over NDP in Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK
6. Peter MacKay, Foreign Affairs and Atlantic Opportunities: 7.8% over NDP in Central Nova, NS
7. John Baird, Treasury Board: 9.0% over Lib in Ottawa West—Nepean, ON

Opinion Polls

Since the 2006 election, polls have generally indicated a slight decline in the Liberal and Bloc votes and a slight increase in the Conservative and NDP votes. However, this might be attributed to the current leaderless state of the Liberal Party before its leadership election and the slight boost in popularity generally experienced by any new government.

The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.

Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

Conservatives

• Ken Epp, Edmonton—Sherwood Park, Alberta
• John Williams, Edmonton—St. Albert, Alberta

Liberals

• Brenda Chamberlain, Guelph, Ontario

Bloquistes

• Yvan Loubier, Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, Quebec

New Democrats

Independents

External links

Government links

• Elections Canada
  • Elections Canada nominations database
• Parliament of Canada
• Prime Minister of Canada

General links

• Maple Leaf Web - Canada's Premier Political Education Website
• Canada Election 2006 News and Discussion
• Election Prediction Project
• LISPOP - Projected Distribution of Seats
• Pollingreport.ca
• UBC Election Stock Market 2006
• Nodice Elections: Canada
• democraticSPACE Poll Tracking
• democraticSPACE Predictions
• Politics Canada
• TrendLines Riding Projections
• Hill and Knowlton election predictor
• Canada elections links wiki via Democracies Online
• The Blogging Tories - Conservative Blogs
• LibLogs - Liberal Blogs
• The Blogging Dippers - New Democrat Blogs
• Fairvote Canada - About proportional representation

Party websites

• Canadian federal elections