| Revision as of 16:50, 31 October 2020 editJason Rees (talk | contribs)Autopatrolled, Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers, Rollbackers, Template editors89,515 edits Reverted to revision 986390274 by Jason Rees (talk): If you look you will see that the NIWA forecast has been updated to 2020's and should not be removed unless a consensus emerges.Tags: Twinkle Undo Reverted← Previous edit | Revision as of 16:51, 31 October 2020 edit undoJason Rees (talk | contribs)Autopatrolled, Extended confirmed users, Pending changes reviewers, Rollbackers, Template editors89,515 edits →Seasonal forecasts: TweaksTag: RevertedNext edit → | ||
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| Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting on 1 November, the BoM, Fiji Meteorological Service <small>(FMS)</small>, New Zealand's ] and ] <small>(NIWA)</small> and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020.<ref name="NIWA"/> The outlook called for a near to a below-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10.<ref name="NIWA"/> At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season.<ref name="NIWA"/> | Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting on 1 November, the BoM, Fiji Meteorological Service <small>(FMS)</small>, New Zealand's ] and ] <small>(NIWA)</small> and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020.<ref name="NIWA"/> The outlook called for a near to a below-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10.<ref name="NIWA"/> At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season.<ref name="NIWA"/> | ||
| In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued five seasonal forecasts for various parts of the Australian region and South Pacific basin.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/><ref name="SPOutlook"/> For the entire Australian region between 90°E–160°E, the BoM predicted that the season would feature, an average to slightly above-average number of tropical cyclones with a 66% chance of more tropical cyclones.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> The BoM also thought that their self defined Western and northwestern subregions, both had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> In addition, it was thought that the northern and eastern regions had a 57% and 67% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones then average.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> |
In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued five seasonal forecasts for various parts of the Australian region and South Pacific basin.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/><ref name="SPOutlook"/> For the entire Australian region between 90°E–160°E, the BoM predicted that the season would feature, an average to a slightly above-average number of tropical cyclones with a 66% chance of more tropical cyclones.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> The BoM also thought that their self defined Western and northwestern subregions, both had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> In addition, it was thought that the northern and eastern regions had a 57% and 67% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones then average.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> The BoM also issued two seasonal forecasts for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.<ref name="SPOutlook"/> They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 45% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.<ref name="SPOutlook"/> | ||
| Each of the outlooks accounted for the effects of various climate drivers, which included the state of the ] (ENSO) and the ] (IOD).<ref name="NIWA"/><ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> Ahead of the season starting, a La Nina episode emerged over the Pacific Ocean, which meant that ocean temperatures within the region was | |||
| {{clear}} | |||
| ==Storm names== | ==Storm names== | ||
Revision as of 16:51, 31 October 2020
| 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season | |
|---|---|
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | Season Not Started |
| Last system dissipated | Season Not Started |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
| Australian region tropical cyclone seasons 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23 | |
The 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form in the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially started on 1 November 2020 and will end on 30 April 2021, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France will also monitor the basin during the season.
Seasonal forecasts
| Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
Ref | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record high: | 21 | 12 | ||
| Record low: | 3 | 0 | ||
| Average (1969-70 - 2019-20): | 11 | — | ||
| NIWA October (135°E—120°W) | 8-10 | >3 | ||
| Region | Average number |
Chance of more |
Chance of less |
Actual activity |
| Overall (90°E–160°E) |
11 | 66% | 34% | 0 |
| Western region (90°E–125°E) |
7 | 63% | 37% | 0 |
| Northwestern sub-region (105°E–130°E) |
5 | 63% | 37% | 0 |
| Northern region (125°E–142.5°E) |
3 | 57% | 43% | 0 |
| Eastern region (142.5°E–160°E) |
4 | 67% | 33% | 0 |
| Western South Pacific (142.5°E—165°E) |
4 | 60% | 40% | 0 |
| Eastern South Pacific (165°E—120°W) |
6 | 45% | 60% | 0 |
| Source: BOM's Season Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones | ||||
Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting on 1 November, the BoM, Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020. The outlook called for a near to a below-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10. At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season.
In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued five seasonal forecasts for various parts of the Australian region and South Pacific basin. For the entire Australian region between 90°E–160°E, the BoM predicted that the season would feature, an average to a slightly above-average number of tropical cyclones with a 66% chance of more tropical cyclones. The BoM also thought that their self defined Western and northwestern subregions, both had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual. In addition, it was thought that the northern and eastern regions had a 57% and 67% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones then average. The BoM also issued two seasonal forecasts for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 45% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.
Each of the outlooks accounted for the effects of various climate drivers, which included the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Ahead of the season starting, a La Nina episode emerged over the Pacific Ocean, which meant that ocean temperatures within the region was
Storm names
Bureau of Meteorology
Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones. These monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next 12 names on the naming list are listed here below.
| Imogen (unused) | Joshua (unused) | Kimi (unused) | Lucas (unused) | Marian (unused) | Niran (unused) |
| Odette (unused) | Paddy (unused) | Ruby (unused) | Seth (unused) | Tiffany (unused) | Vernon (unused) |
TCWC Jakarta
TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11°S and from 90°E to 145°E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.
| Seroja (unused) | Teratai (unused) | Anggrek (unused) | Bakung (unused) | Cempaka (unused) |
| Dahlia (unused) | Flamboyan (unused) | Kenanga (unused) | Lili (unused) | Mangga (unused) |
TCWC Port Moresby
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007. As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.
| Alu (unused) | Buri (unused) | Dodo (unused) | Emau (unused) | Fere (unused) |
| Hibu (unused) | Ila (unused) | Kama (unused) | Lobu (unused) | Maila (unused) |
Season effects
| Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damage (US$) |
Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Wind speed (km/h (mph)) |
Pressure (hPa) | ||||||
| Season aggregates | ||||||||
| 0 systems | Season not yet begun | Unknown | 0 | |||||
See also
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2020, 2021
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020, 2021
- 2020–21 South–West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ "Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2020. Archived from the original on 12 October 2020. Retrieved 12 October 2020.
- ^ Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020 (Report). National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- ^ "South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 20 October 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast Indian Ocean, 2014 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2016-06-12.
- Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.
External links
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center
- Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (in Indonesian)
| 2010–2019 Australian region cyclone seasons | |
|---|---|