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Revision as of 03:47, 16 July 2008 by Chanakyathegreat (talk | contribs) (rv)(diff) ← Previous revision | Latest revision (diff) | Newer revision → (diff)The Indian Century is a term used to describe the growing power of India in the 21st century.
Concept
The concept of the Indian century is based on the capacity of India becoming the biggest economy of the 21st century. It has been claimed that various trends will make 21st an Asian Century. However, this is based on the assumption that India will become the third largest economy by 2007 on purchasing power parity (see CIA World Factbook link below; only a couple of years ago estimated year for this crossing was 2020) and on international exchange rates by 2050.
India
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Newsweek, and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower. With 9.4% GDP growth in 2007, Goldman Sachs predicts that as 700 million Indians are expected to move to cities by 2050, the Indian economy may surpass the United States's (in US$) by 2043.
"India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars."
India's strength lies in its demographics; More than 50% of India's population is under 25. Dr Narendra Jadhav, a principal advisor to the RBI and a former advisor to the executive director at the IMF, says "India has a great potential to become an economic super power because of its growing young population." A young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India with a great advandage.
Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that
"It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".
India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.
Facts in favour
Geography
India, the 7th largest nation by area, lies at the north-central region of Indian Ocean - a zone with unprecedented potential for growth in the scale of transoceanic commerce, with many Eurasian and increasingly Afro-Asian sea-trade routes passing through or close to Indian territorial waters. The subcontinent's land and water resources, though strained, is yet sustaining its massive population.
According to Lord Curzon of the British Empire:
The central position of India, its magnificent resources, its teeming multitude of men, its great trading harbors, its reserve of military strength, supplying an army always in a high state of efficiency and capable of being hurled at a moment's notice upon any point either of Asia or Africa--all these are assets of precious value. On the West, India must exercise a predominant influence over the destinies of Persia and Afghanistan; on the north, it can veto any rival in Tibet; on the north-east . . . it can exert great pressure upon China, and it is one of the guardians of the autonomous existence of Siam. Possession of India gave the British Empire its global reach.
In the future, the world is expected to enter from the "fossil fuel age", and perhaps "nuclear energy age", into the "renewable-energy age" or even further into the "fusion power age", if and whenever these technologies become economically sustainable. Being a region in the sunny tropical belt, the Indian Subcontinent could greatly benefit from a renewable energy trend, as it has the ideal combination of both - high solar insolation and a big consumer base density. For example, considering the costs of energy consumed for temperature control (a major factor influencing a regions energy intensity) and the fact that - cooling load requirements, unlike heating, are roughly in phase with the sun's intensity, cooling from the excessive solar radiation could make great energetic (and hence economic) sense in the subcontinent, whenever the required technology becomes competitively cheaper. India also has 25% of the world's thorium resources.
Demographics
India has the world's second largest population. The government has attempted to control the population so as to avoid overpopulation. Some South Indian states have slowed down their population growth to below 1%. The PGR for the country is 1.38. Due to its high birth rate India has a young population compared to most aging nations. It has approximately 60% of its population below the age of 30. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which may produce a demographic dividend. In the coming decades, while some of the powerful nations witness a decrease in workforce, India is expected to have an increase. For example while Europe is well past its demographic window, the U.S. entered its in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its in 1990 (will last until 2025), India won't enter its window until 2010 (lasting until 2050). Regionally South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa and Middle East, with the window extending up to 2070s. More than 35 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful.
The importance of English in the 21st century is a topic of debate, nonetheless the growing pool of non-native English speakers makes it the best contender for "Global language" status. Incidentally, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population. It claims one of the largest workforce of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English. It has the 2nd largest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million, and is expected to have the largest in coming decades.
Politics
India is the world's largest democratic republic, more than three times bigger than the next largest (U.S.). It has so far been successful, at least politically, especially considering its functionality in difficult ethnic composition. The fact that India is a democracy has improved its relations with other democratic nations and significantly improved its ties with the majority of the nations in the developed world. India has been pressing for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (as part of the G4 nations) but without veto ability. It has received backing from the UK, France and Russia. However, China and the U.S have not been supportive of the bid. With improved Indo-US relations, the US is expected by some to reconsider its stand.
Foreign relations
India has developed relationships with the world powers like the EU, the U.S., Japan and Russia. It also developed relationships with the African Union (esp. South Africa), the Arab World, Southeast Asia, Israel and South American nations (esp. Brazil). In order to make the environment propitious for economic growth, India is investing on its relations with China. It has significantly boosted its image among western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in March 2006. It is also working for better relationships with Pakistan and Iran. Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement, and had good relationships with Soviet Union and other parts of western world. It played regional roles in South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of the Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with global economy. Currently, India's political moves are being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is also being observed to slowly, cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the unchartered role of becoming one of the two major seats of political power in Asia, the other being at Beijing. Some enlightened thinkers from the subcontinent have also envisioned, over the long run, of a South Asian version of free trade zone and even a Union, where the South Asian nations relinquish all past animosities and move to make economic growth a pan subcontinental phenomenon.
A new and highly controversial geopolitical strategy, being debated in the West, is whether India should be trusted/helped to become an economically strong democratic citizen of the world and be used to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, to insure a more stable world. Generally speaking it is discussed in the context of adopting a policy of offshore balancing on the part of the United States. A new American strategy towards India has been indicated in George W. Bush's recent visit to the subcontinent. India's current economic growth (as the world's second-fastest growing major economy) has improved its standing on the world's political stage, even though it is still a developing country, but one that is showing strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relationships with India.
Economy
The economy of India is currently the world's fourth largest in terms of real GDP (PPP), and the second fastest growing major economy in the world, averaging at an annual growth rate of above 8%. . Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003, when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4% . Interestingly, estimates by the IMF shows that by 2007 (see List of countries by future GDP estimates (PPP)), India will be the third largest economy in the world, overtaking the Japanese economy. The current growth rate is at 9.2%. India, growing at 8% per year, is the world's second largest producer of food. Food processing accounts for USD 69.4 billion as gross income. India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest an improvement in future, since the manufacturing sector is growing at 11-12%. India currently has an expanding IT industry which is considered one of the best in the world. Some have begun to describe India as a technology superpower. It is considered the World's Office and is leading in the Services Industry. This is mainly due to the availability of a large pool of highly skilled, low cost, English speaking workforce.
India is trying to develop more high skilled, English speaking people to fit in the future knowledge economy. India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software and with mushrooming R&D centres it is experiencing a steady revolution in science and technology. A typical example of India's rising scientific endeavours is that it was the 3rd nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S. It was the third Asian nation to send satellites into space after China and Japan in 1970, starting with Aryabhata in 1975. In January 2007, India became the fourth nation to complete atmospheric reentry By 2008 it plans to send an unmanned mission to the Moon. . India and the United States have increased mutual cooperation in space-travel related technologies, such as increasing the interoperability between Indian and US systems, and prospects for a commercial space launch agreement with India that would allow US satellites to be launched on Indian vehicles.India is among the world leaders in remote sensing, a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers. India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project and the ITER for fusion energy club. Some Indian educational and research institutions like IIT, NIT, IIM, IISc, TIFR and AIIMS are among the world's best.
To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations. Recently on 25/01/2007, Russian president, Vladimir Putin on a visit to India offered to build 4 more reactors and India is expected to clinch this deal of strategical importance. Recently it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US and EU. In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia).
India is in the process of developing modern mass rapid transit systems to replace its existing system which is seen as inadequate to cater to present and future urban requirements. A modern metro rail system is already in place in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Work is in progress or would be commencing shortly for developing similar mass transit system in cities of NOIDA, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Indore, Ahmedabad and Kochi. Indore is leading the track by implementing world class GPS enabled, low floor buses in a Rapid Transport System. With growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernisation. The Indian rail network traverses the length and breadth of the country, covering a total length of 63,140 km (39,200 miles). It is one of the largest and busiest rail networks in the world, transporting over 5 billion passengers and over 350 million tonnes of freight annually. Its operations covers twenty-seven states and three Union territories and also links the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, other public transport systems, such as buses are often not up to the standards followed in developed countries.
Culture
India, with its diverse and fascinating history, arts, music, culture, spiritual & social models has witnessed the growth of a booming tourism industry. India is a historic place with a diverse history of over five millennia. About 3.9 million tourists travelled to India in 2005, each spending approximately $1,470 per person, higher than that of France (the leading tourist destination in the world). Foreign visitors in 2005 spent more than US $15.4 billion annually in India . Many travellers find the cultural diversity an enriching experience, despite the hassles inefficiency, pollution and overcrowding. Monuments like the Taj Mahal are among the many attractions of this land. As of 2006, Conde Nast Traveller ranked India the 4th most preferred travel destination. The Planning Commission expects 5.8 million tourists travelling to India by 2010. The World Travel and Tourism Council believes India's tourism industry will grow at 10% per annum in the next decade, making it lead the world in terms of growth. Tourism contributes 6% of India's GDP and employed 40 million people, making it an important factor in India's economic growth.
Alongside traditional tourism, Indian Metros have emerged as the leading destination of medical tourism. Last year, an estimated 150,000 foreigners visited India for medical procedures, and the number is increasing at the rate of about 15 percent a year.
The Maurya, Gupta, Mughal, Vijayanagara and Chola empires provide the necessary confidence that a powerful state can be established despite having diversity. India's film industry produces more feature films than any other. In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world (In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets) . The cinemas play a major role in spreading Indian culture worldwide. Indian cinema trancended its boundaries from the days of film Awara, a great hit in Russia. Bollywood films are seen in central and west Asia. Indian films have also found audience in eastern societies. India's film industry is now becoming increasingly popular in Western society, with Bollywood festivals occurring numerous cities and Bollywood dance groups performing in New Years Eve celebrations, treatment which other non-English film industries generally do not receive.
Military
The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches: the core Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains the third largest active duty force in the world after the People's Republic of China and the United States, while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over a million strong, is the second largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's third largest defence force. The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Today, the Indian Army is the world's second largest army after China's People's Liberation Army. The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world . India recently flew its first indigenously manufactured combat aircraft.
The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy . It is considered to have blue-water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier, minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. It operates one of only two Asian aircraft carriers. It also plans to induct the INS Vikramaditya by 2008. The first successful use of missiles in history against a modern army, was by Indians against the British Army in the Mysore wars. India started the IGMDP to be a self reliant nation in missile development. The IGMDP program includes five missiles - the ballistic missiles like the Prithvi and Agni, surface to air missiles Trishul and Akash and also the anti tank Nag missile. Prithvi and Agni missiles are inducted into the armed forces and form the basis of Indian nuclear second strike capability. Trishul missile is declared a technology demonstrator. The Akash and Nag missiles are undergoing user trials. Recently, a new weapons system, the air-to-air Astra missile was added into the project. Astra is a BVR capable missile. The expertise in developing these missiles has helped Indian scientists to contribute to joint weapon development programs like the Brahmos and Barak-II. There are reports of India developing an Intercontinental ballistic missile named Surya (Sun). This missile is said to have a range of twelve thousand kilometers. India possesses nuclear weapons since 1974, when it did the Pokharan I nuclear tests, and the means to deliver them over long distances. However, India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (on grounds of security concerns and that India condemns the NPT as discriminatory).
India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU. The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law and order in the disputed Kashmir region. India has also participated in several United Nations peace-keeping missions, currently being the largest contributor to UN peace keeping force and is the largest contributor to the United Nations Democratic Fund, to which the USA, the world's only current superpower, contributes nothing.
References
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