This is an old revision of this page, as edited by SimonP (talk | contribs) at 22:06, 17 September 2005. The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.
Revision as of 22:06, 17 September 2005 by SimonP (talk | contribs)(diff) ← Previous revision | Latest revision (diff) | Newer revision → (diff)
Voter turnout is a measure of the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in any given election. In recent years some countries have worried about decreasing voter turnout.
International differences
| Election turnout in lower house elections from 1960 to 1995 for selected countries
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| *Countries with compulsory voting | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **Compulsory voting until 1988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ***Does not iclude pre-1968 elections, when compulsory voting was in place |
Voter turnout varies considerably from democracy to democracy. It tends to be quite low in the United States, Canada, and Latin America when compared to most of Europe, Oceania and Asia. In Western Europe 77% of eligible voters cast ballots on average, in the United States it is closer to 50%, in Latin America the average has been 53% since 1945. The differences between natin tend to be greater than the gaps between classes, ethnic groups, or regions within nations. Political scientists see two general causes of these differences: culture and institutions. There is great debate between scholars over which causes are the most important.
Cultural factors
Wealth and literacy have some effect on turnout, but are not good measures. Countries such as Angola and Ethiopia have long had high turnouts, but so have the wealthy states of Europe. The United Nations Human Development Index shows some correlation with voter behaviour, with higher standards of living being linked to higher turnout. The age of a democracy is also an important factor. Elections require a considerable degree of involvement by the population, and it takes some time to build up the social aspects of voter behaviour. This is often used to explain the lower turnouts in the newer democracies of Eastern Europe and Latin America.
Demographics also has some effect. Globally older people tend to vote more than youths, so somewhat older societies, such as Europe, will have higher turnout than somewhat younger ones like Canada and the United States. Populations that are more mobile, and contain more unmarried individuals also tend to have lower turnouts.
Institutional factors
Institutional factors also have an important impact. One of the most direct is compulsory voting. Australia, for instance makes voter registration and attending at a polling booth on polling day mandatory. Sanctions can be imposed on those who do not attend at a polling booth. The country thus has one of the world's highest voter turnouts. Other countries including Belgium, Argentina, and Fiji also have such laws. In some countries, such as Italy and Brazil, these laws exist but punishments are minimal or rarely enforced. These laws have a dramatic effect on turnout, and many of the nations with the most voters use compulsory voting. In two nations, Venezuela and the Netherlands, compulsory voting was eliminated and an immediate and substantial decrease in turnout resulted.
Also of great importance is salience, the effect a vote will have on how the country is run. Switzerland is often presented as an example of a nation with low salience. The nation is highly decentralized, so that federal government has only select powers. The government invariably consists of a coalition of parties, and the power wielded by a party is far more closely linked to its position relative to the coalition than to the number of votes it received. Moreover any decision of major importance will be placed before the population in a referendum. Elections for the Swiss legislature thus have very low turnout. By contrast Malta, with one of the world's highest voter turnouts, has a single legislature that holds near monopoly on political power in the state. It has a two party system in which a small swing in votes can completely alter the executive.
Another institutional factor that may have an important effect is proportionality. Proportionality is how closely the legislature reflects the views of the populace. A pure proportional representation system is fully proportional to the votes of the populace. This mqeks every vote likely to count. By contrast a first past the post system will always have a fair number of districts where one party is so dominant that there is little reason to vote. Proportionality thus tends to increase turnout. However, proportional systems almost invariably produce a multiparty system and coalition governments with each coalition member having an important influence on policy. This reduces salience, since the voters have no influence over which parties are included in the coalition. Political scientists are thus divided on whether proportional representation systems increase voter turnout.
Also important is how easy it is to vote. In the United States and most Latin American nations voters must complete a separate voter registration before they are allowed to vote. This two step process quite clearly decreases turnout. U.S. states with no, or easier registration requirements show a clear pattern of larger turnouts. Other methods of improving turnout include making voting easier through more available absentee polling and improved access to polls. Some areas have also pondered internet voting as a possible solution.
Internal differences
Individual elections within a country can show considerable variation. One issue found only in the continent spanning nations such as Canada, the United States and Russia is that of time zones. Western Americans have often complained that since the election has already been decided in the east of the country that turnout is depressed on the Pacific coast. Canada has in the past partially resolved this problem by banning the broadcasting of election results in any region where the polls have not yet closed, but recently this ban has been lifted.
The weather also can have an important effect with rain or snow reducing turnouts, especially among moderates. The date an election is held also can change turnout. Weekend and summer elections find more of the population on holiday or uninterested in politics and have lower turnouts. When nations, such as the United States, set fixed election dates they are usually in mid-week during the spring or fall to maximize turnout.
Voter fatigue can also lower turnout. If there are many elections in close succession due to unstable governments, or if referenda are held too frequently voter turnout will decrease as the public gets tired of participating.
However, as seen with the U.S. Presidential Election, 2004, one of the factors most likely to increase turnout is a close race. With an intensely polarised electorate and all polls showing a photo-finish between President of the United States George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John F. Kerry, the turnout in 2004 was close to 60% resulting in the both candidates setting records for popular votes with Kerry even beating Ronald Reagan's 1984 record despite losing the election. Similarly, sure-thing elections where one vote is not seen to be able to make a difference have resulted in lower turnouts such as Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election, the UK General Election, 2001 and the 2005 Spanish referendum on the European Constitution. All of which produced landslide results on a low turnout.
Decreasing Turnout
Recently in North America voter turnout has been steadily decreasing. For instance four out of five eligible Canadians voted in the 1963 general election. In the 2000 election, only two out of three cast ballots.
Some scholars believe this is a sign of disaffection with politics, that scandals such as Watergate combined with negative campaigning and a general distrust of the political process have turned the public away from politics. Some blame the decline on the allegedly increasing similarity between the major parties in both the United States and Canada. Others take a more positive view arguing that the reduced number of voters reflects the widespread contentment with the status quo.
Especially unlikely to vote are youth; in Canada today only one in five young people vote in federal elections. By contrast seniors are the most likely group to vote. Some are concerned that this biases the political process, for instance health care may get more funding than education because one is a concern of seniors the other of youths. Youth voter mobilization programs such as MTV's "Rock the Vote" and the "Vote or Die" initiatives in the United States, have worked to encourage those between the ages of 18-25 to vote in the past few years. The 11% increase in voter turnout for American youth in the 2004 election is attributed by some to programs like these.
The internet may also play a role in affecting voter turnout. Findings indicate that internet use is rising among minority and low-income groups in the United States with a 26 percent annual increase among Hispanics, and a 25 percent increase among households with an annual income below $15,000. Studies show that those with internet access are far more likely to vote then those without, as shown in the 1996 and 2000 American elections. This applies even when socio-economic conditions are put into account. Simulations show that access to the internet and online election news significantly increased the probability of voting by an average of 12 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in the 2000 election.
There is also concern that decreasing voter turnout will radicalize politics. If most voters are the core supporters of a party then getting out the vote efforts become increasingly important and begin to replace actually winning the votes of the undecided. This can lead to parties shunning centrist position for ones that will appeal to the base.
Russian electoral laws render an election invalid if too small a section of the population casts ballots, as did those of Serbia and Montenegro until recent changes after several successive presidential elections were rendered invalid. In the United States, some elections require a double majority to require a reasonable voter turnout.
Notes
- Mark N. Franklin. "Electoral Participation." in Controversies in Voting Behavior pg. 87
- Robert W. Jackman and Ross A. Miller. "Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies During the 1980s." in Elections and Voting Behaviour: New Challenges, New Perspectives. pg. 308
- Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Controversies in Voting Behavior pg. 31
External links
References
- Eisner, Jane. "American Rhythms | Rock the Vote, now 15, eager to help drive policy." Philadelphia Inquirer 12 June 2005. 12 July 2005 <http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/opinion/11872741.htm>.
- Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert F. Weisberg. eds. Controversies in Voting Vehavior. Washington, D.C: CQ Press, 2001.
- Norris, Pippa. Elections and Voting Behaviour: New Challenges, New Perspectives. Aldershot: Ashgate, Dartmouth, 1998.