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United States presidential election, 2016

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v t e

The United States presidential election of 2016 is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016. It will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters in the election will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president of the United States. The incumbent president, Barack Obama, is ineligible to be elected to a third term because of the term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution which do not allow a president to be elected to more than two complete terms.

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf.

Democrat Barack Obama, a former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is due to complete his second and final term in office on January 20, 2017. In the United States presidential election, 2008, Obama defeated Republican Senator John McCain from Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote. He was reelected in the 2012 election, defeating former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote. Obama is not eligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions set by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent. His approval rating is widely seen as an indicator for how well the Democratic Party will do in the 2016 election.

2012 election

In the 2012 election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 of 538 electoral votes. A CNN article published on the day of the election listed a few examples of imprudent remarks made by Romney during the campaign, Obama's poor performance during the first presidential debate, speeches made at the parties' respective national conventions, as well as some current events (such as Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 Benghazi attack) as the defining moments of the 2012 election. Romney was surprised by the loss and had not prepared a concession speech until after the major networks began predicting Obama's reelection.

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election. On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.

2014 midterm elections

In the United States elections for the Senate and House in 2012, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate. Subsequently, in the 2014 midterm elections, the Republicans won a majority of seats in both Houses of Congress, increasing their majority in the House and gaining a majority in the Senate.

Primaries

Democratic Party

Former First Lady, former Senator from New York, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to announce a candidacy for the presidency, which she did via a video on April 12, 2015. According to nationwide opinion polls in 2015, Clinton is considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, as well as the general election. Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30 that he was running for the Democratic nomination. While not the front-runner, as of July 1, Sanders's campaign stops have been drawing the largest crowds of any of the candidates in the run for president. Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015. Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015. Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb was the most recent Democrat to announce his candidacy, doing so on July 2, 2015.

Declared candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination the Democratic Party; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls

Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls

• Lincoln Chafee, former Governor of Rhode Island (2011–2015)
• Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State (2009–2013)
• Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland (2007–2015)
• Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)
• Jim Webb, former U.S. Senator from Virginia (2007–2013)

• Chafee (campaign)
• Clinton (campaign)
• O'Malley (campaign)
• Sanders (campaign)
• Webb (campaign)

Other candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

• Jeff Boss, 9/11 Truther and perennial candidate from New Jersey
• Robby Wells, Reform Party and Constitution Party presidential candidate in 2012 from North Carolina
• Willie Wilson, businessman and 2015 Chicago mayoral candidate from Illinois

Formally exploring a candidacy

• Lawrence Lessig, professor at Harvard Law School, political activist; launched an exploratory campaign.

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2015, the following potential candidate has expressed interest in running for president within the past three months.

• Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States since 2009; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; presidential candidate in 1988 and 2008

Republican Party

United States Senator from Texas Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015. Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13. Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015. Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate, announced his candidacy the next day. 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum announced his campaign on May 27. Former New York Governor George Pataki was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015. Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina, announced he was running on June 1. Former Governor of Texas Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4. Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush joined the race on June 15. Real estate developer and reality TV host Donald Trump announced he was running on June 16. Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey announced he was running on June 30. Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker announced his candidacy on July 13. Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his run on July 21. Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was the most recent Republican candidate to announce his candidacy, which he did on July 30, 2015.

Declared candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls

Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls

• Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida (1999–2007)
• Ben Carson, former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins Hospital (1984–2013)
• Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–present)
• Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)
• Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard (1999–2005)
• Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (1998–2002)
• Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007)
• Bobby Jindal, former Governor of Louisiana (2008–present)
• John Kasich, Governor of Ohio (2011–present)
• George Pataki, former Governor of New York (1995–2006)
• Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
• Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas (2000–2015)
• Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present)
• Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
• Donald Trump, Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–present)
• Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (2011–present)

• Bush (campaign)
• Carson (campaign)
• Christie (campaign)
• Cruz (campaign)
• Fiorina (campaign)
• Gilmore (campaign)
• Graham (campaign)
• Huckabee (campaign)
• Jindal (campaign)
• Kasich (campaign)
• Pataki (campaign)
• Paul (campaign)
• Perry (campaign)
• Rubio (campaign)
• Santorum (campaign)
• Trump (campaign)
• Walker (campaign)

Other candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

• Mark Everson, former Commissioner of Internal Revenue, former President of the American Red Cross from Mississippi
• Jack Fellure, retired engineer from West Virginia; 2012 Prohibition Party presidential nominee

Green Party

Ballot Access: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin (296 Electoral Votes)

Declared candidates

• Jill Stein, physician and 2012 Green Party presidential nominee from Massachusetts

Formally exploring a candidacy

• Darryl Cherney, musician and environmental activist from California; formed an exploratory committee

Libertarian Party

Ballot Access: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming (366 electoral votes)

Declared candidates

• Robert David Steele, activist and author of Virginia; candidate for the Reform Party's nomination in 2012

Publicly expressed interest

• Gary Johnson, Governor of New Mexico 1995–2003; presidential nominee in 2012

Other third party and independent candidates

Nominees

Party for Socialism and Liberation

• Gloria La Riva, newspaper printer and activist, from Albuquerque, New Mexico. Vice-presidential nominee: Eugene Puryear

Prohibition Party

• James Hedges, Tax Assessor for Thompson Township, Fulton County, Pennsylvania 2002–2007. Vice-presidential nominee: Bill Bayes of Mississippi

Declared candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by minor party and then alphabetically by surname.

Declared – Peace and Freedom Party

• Roseanne Barr, entertainer from Hawaii; Peace and Freedom Party's 2012 presidential nominee

Declared – independent candidates or candidates without a specified affiliation

• Dan Bilzerian, Internet personality
• Zoltan Istvan, futurist, writer, transhumanist philosopher from California; founder of a proposed Transhumanist Party
• Terry Jones, pastor for Dove World Outreach Center from Florida; independent presidential candidate in 2012
• Juaquin James Malphurs (Waka Flocka Flame), rap artist from Georgia (Constitutionally ineligible – under age 35)
• Vermin Supreme, performance artist and perennial candidate from Massachusetts
• Ted Williams, voice-over artist from Ohio

Publicly expressed interest - Constitution Party

• John Hostettler, U.S. Representative 1995-2007 from Indiana

Publicly expressed interest – independent

• Donald Trump (campaign), business magnate; Chairman of The Trump Organization since 1971 (Although currently seeking the Republican presidential nomination, Trump has expressed interest in the possibility of running as an independent or third party candidate in the event that he does not receive the Republican nomination)

Potential battleground states

In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how votes are allocated). Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states. Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Democrats have discussed targeting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as potentially competitive states. Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Minnesota and New Jersey. Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region.

Party conventions

Democratic Party

• July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention to be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Republican Party

• July 18–21, 2016: Republican National Convention to be held in Cleveland, Ohio.

Green Party

• August 4–7, 2016: Green National Convention to be held in Houston, Texas.

Libertarian Party

• May 26–30, 2016: Libertarian National Convention to be held in Orlando, Florida.

Debates

Intra-party presidential debates

Main articles:

• Democratic Party presidential debates, 2015–2016
• Republican Party presidential debates, 2015–2016

Inter-party presidential debates

On April 1, 2015, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that each of the following 16 locations are under consideration to host one of the three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate:

• Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee
• Birmingham, Alabama
• Dominican University of California in San Rafael, California
• Eastern Kentucky University in Richmond, Kentucky
• Georgia College & State University in Milledgeville, Georgia
• Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York
• Jacksonville University in Jacksonville, Florida
• Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia
• State University of New York Rockland Community College in Suffern, New York
• University of Nevada, Las Vegas
• Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri
• West Virginia University and West Virginia State University in Charleston, West Virginia
• Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio
• Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas
• Houston Community College in Houston, Texas
• McAllen, Texas

The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, are to be announced by the CPD in the fall of 2015.

Debate lawsuit

On June 22, 2015, the advocacy group Level the Playing Field, along with Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, and the Libertarian National Committee, filed a complaint for declaratory and injunctive relief against the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the CPD after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process. While a decision has not yet been reached, the FEC did take up the original complaint in a July 16 meeting, with a motion to open rulemaking failing 2–4 (Commissioners Ravel (D) and Weintraub (D) voting aye and Commissioners Goodman (R), Hunter (R), Petersen (R), and Walther (D) voting no).

Polling

General election polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
• Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016

Democratic primary polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2016 presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

Republican primary polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2016
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2016
• United States presidential election, 2016 timeline

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External links

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• 2016 Presidential Form 2 Filers at the Federal Election Commission (FEC)

• United States presidential election, 2016
• History of the United States (1991–present)