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2006 Venezuelan presidential election

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The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will hold presidential elections on 3 December 2006. A president will be elected for a six-year term, to begin on 10 January 2007.

Main candidates

  • Hugo Chávez, the incumbent president, representing the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR).
  • Manuel Rosales, governor of Zulia, representing A New Era (Un Nuevo Tiempo).
  • Benjamín Rausseo a stand-up comedian, endorsed by the newly formed "PIEDRA" party. Three weeks before the election, in accordance with a campaign pledge he had made earlier (to stand down if not placed first or second in the opinion polls), he withdrew his candidacy without endorsing either Chávez or Rosales, telling his supporters to vote for either. However, the party he formed has announced that it will support Rosales and any votes going to the PIEDRA party would go to Manuel Rosales.


International Observers

Campaign platforms

Chávez

Chávez's campaign manager Rafael Lacava said that the campaign will be based on defending Venezuela's national sovereignty and promoting world peace, in contrast to the imperialist policies of U.S. President George W. Bush. According to Unión Radio, Lacava added that a campaign theme will be the "country's freedom to no longer be a North American colony".

According to the Associated Press, Chávez launched his campaign "with warnings that Washington is trying to undermine December's presidential vote and destabilize Venezuela", saying "I am the candidate of the revolution and without a doubt I am the candidate of the national majority," dismissing other candidates as "tools of the U.S. government". El Universal reports that Chávez said, "In this electoral process there are two candidates only, namely Hugo Chávez and George W. Bush."

Chávez promised that, if elected, he will personally convoke a midterm recall referendum in the year 2010 without the need for petition signatures as was the case with the 2004 recall referendum. This consult would allow the voters of Venezuela to remove him from his post. He has said that if he won that recall referendum, he would then call for a referendum to ask the people for indefinite reelection to be put into the constitution.

Rosales

Rosales said that the backbone of his government program will be the social arena, saying it will be a "sound and well defined" program, including a "fair allocation of oil revenues by means of two axes – minimum wage for all unemployed and direct contribution to the underprivileged". The latter being promoted as Mi Negra which is a debit card handed out to the poor with monthly deposits from 20% of oil industry profits, A poll shows 59% of the Venezuelan people rejected the Mi Negra program, prefering stable jobs.

According to the Los Angeles Times, Rosales stated that Chávez was vulnerable on his "massive foreign aid programs, government-approved takeovers of land and buildings, and the perception that crime is increasing". Rosales said, "We will distribute land to the peasants, but we will buy it in such a way as to respect the principle of private property, just as we will respect those of human rights and social justice." Rosales would halt oil giveaways, "including sales of discounted oil to Cuba, until Venezuela reduced its high poverty rate."

The Associated Press reports that Rosales accuses Chávez of "overspending on a military buildup" and pledged "to use Venezuela's oil wealth to help the poor and improve education and health care", ridiculing Chávez's "claims of a possible war with the U.S." and saying, "Venezuela's real war should be against rampant street crime."

Campaign slogans and ads

Chávez

Chávez launched his campaign with a slogan of 10 Millones de votos (10 million votes), On multiple occasions the more combatitive "10 millones por el buche" (10 million votes down their throats) is said. On 17 August, 2006, while leading the oath at the national campaign headquarters (Comando Miranda), Chávez acknowledged that 10 million votes would be hard to attain.

Since 9 October, Chávez campaign is using the slogans por amor (for love) and Chávez, victoria de Venezuela (Chávez, Venezuela's victory). They will be also using the slogan uh, ah, Chávez no se va (ooh, ah, Chávez won't go) from the 2004 recall referendum campaign. A poll made by the firm Cifras Escenarios reported that 76,7% of Venezuelans liked the love message.. The English translation of the message is as follows:

Always, I have done everything out of love.

For the love of trees and rivers, I became a painter

For the love of knowledge, studies, I left my dearest village, to study

For the love of sports I became a ball player

For the love of the motherland I became a soldier

For the love of the people I became President, you made me President

I have ruled these years out of love

For love we did Barrio Adentro

For love we did Mission Robinson

For love we did Mercal

We have done everything for love.

There is a lot left to do. I need more time.

I NEED YOUR VOTE. YOUR VOTE FOR LOVE.

Rosales

Atrévete con Manual Rosales is the Rosales campaign slogan.

¡Ni el imperio, ni el barbudo! (Neither the empire, nor the bearded one!) is a slogan used by Rosales in launching his campaign, intended to "hit Chávez where the Venezuelan comandante is most vulnerable: his penchant for giving away billions of dollars to foreign countries, while nearly half of the Venezuelan people live in poverty" referring to subsidized oil deals to both Cuba and the United States. "We are not going to be the empire's defenders," Rosales said. "The empire must respect our sovereignty, and we must respect the empire," and "we cannot be looking at societies like Cuba as a model to be copied. We want modernity, transformation, development."

Endorsements

Chávez

Rosales

Calling for absention

Predictions

Polls

  • On 24 November, a survey by Zogby International and University of Miami reported a 60% support for Chávez and 31% for Rosales.
  • On 24 November a poll by Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos found a 54.6% vote intention for Chávez and 27.5% for Rosales.
  • On 23 November a poll by Associated Press-Ipsos showed a 59% support for Chávez and 27% for Rosales.
  • On 15 November, a Datanálisis poll found Chavez with 52% and Rosales 26%. Luis Vicente León from Datanálisis estimates the result will be 5.9–6 million votes for Chávez and 4 million for Rosales with a 30–40% rate of abstention. He added that Rosales votes are growing but "not enough to win".
  • On 15 November, Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates published a poll, based on a national sample of 1,000 potential voters, in which 48% intended to vote for Chávez, 42% for Rosales, 1% for others and 9% were undecided.The margin of error was 3%-3.5%.
  • On 15 November, Centro de Estudios Políticos y Sociales from Spain released a poll gave Chávez 55.8%, Rosales 25.9% in direct votes and Chavez 59.5%, Rosales 39.1% in indirect votes.
  • On 15 November, local pollster Consultores XXI released a poll giving Chávez 58%, Rosales 40%
  • On 9 November a poll released by Hinterlaces showed Chávez with 45% and Rosales 27%
  • On 7 November a poll by Evans McDonough Company found that 57% would vote for Chávez and 35% for Rosales. The lead widens on those very likely to vote giving Chávez 61% and Rosales 33%. The poll was commissioned by PDV Holding a PDVSA subsidiary, to which Evans replied "I never talked to Chavez and PDVSA gave me lots of leeway. I wish all my clients were like that."
  • On 24 October, a poll by Zogby International found a support of 59% for Chávez, 24% for Rosales and 2% for Rausseo.
  • On 12 October, a poll by Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos made between 1 October and 9 October reported 51.5% voter intention for Chávez and 22.7% for Rosales. The same study showed that 66.30% thought Chávez would win the election.
  • On 16 September, Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates published a poll, based on a national sample of 2,000 potential voters, in which 50% intended to vote for Chávez, 37% for Rosales, 3% for others and 10% were undecided. The company concluded that, based on their polls, "in every single issue Venezuelans disapproved of Chávez. This leaves the opposition, mainly Manuel Rosales, with a great opportunity to convice the electorate that the moment has arrived to make a change and gather the people in support of his candidacy".
  • On 13 September, El Nuevo Herald reported a Datanálisis poll of 1,300 adults taken between August 18 and 30 showed 58% voter intention for Chávez and 17% for Rosales.
  • On 1 September, El Universal reported that a Hinterlaces poll found a drop in support for Chávez a month into the campaign, from 55 percent in June to 48 percent in mid-August. The decrease in support for Chávez did not necessarily imply higher support for Rosales, which depends on the latter's ability to capitalize on the electorate's dissatisfaction.
  • On 25 August, People's Daily reported a poll showing 58.9% voter intention for Chávez, 19.3% for Rosales and 6.2% for Rausseo.
  • On 20 August 2006, the Miami Herald reported that opposition polls show 40 percent define themselves as ni-ni (neither pro-Chávez nor pro-opposition), while Chávez has 35 percent of the population, and 25 percent of the people support the opposition. Preliminary opinion polls suggest that Chávez has an "unassailable lead", according to the BBC.
  • In May 2006, Time magazine said Chávez was widely expected to win.

International Markets

International markets largely see a Chavez victory. Rafael de la Fuente of PNB Paribas states "The market expects a Chavez victory, they don't even question it". Ricardo Amorim of WestLB Research "The vision I see is that of a 20 point victory... We would be surprised if he does not win". Patrick Esteruelas of Euroasia Group sees Chavez winning by 60 percent. Also arguing that a high turnout benefits Chavez. Goldman and Sachs dismissed the close polling arguing "Chavez is the favorite to win the election due to vast control of logistical and financial state resources, and influence over key institutions"

Other candidates

The ballot will be the largest in Venezuelan history which, according to El Universal, is explained by division among adherents to grassroots Chavezism.


Campaign timeline

Primary elections

Civil society organization Súmate recommended procedures for a primary, to be held on 13 August 2006, to choose the opposition candidate for the December 2006 presidential elections. Teodoro Petkoff, a Chávez critic, said that Súmate's procedure was authoritarian, comparing it to The Carmona Decree. Nine other candidates agreed to the terms for holding a primary, confirming their desire to allow the citizens to choose the opposition candidate. Another candidate condemned Petkoff's remarks against Súmate, saying that Petkoff's statements don't help the country, and explaining that the conditions for holding a primary had been previously discussed between all of the candidates, including Petkoff. On 9 August, Súmate announced that the 13 August primary election would not be held, since the candidates had decided to back Manuel Rosales as the single opposition candidate. Machado said that the primary "initiative accomplished its goal and that Súmate would continue working to ensure clean elections and respect for citizens' rights."

Debate

Rosales demanded a public debate, saying Chávez should choose the TV channel where the debate would be broadcast. He also said "I am waiting for him (Chávez) to have a debate with me broadcast by all the TV channels to allow Venezuelans to know what is the project and the vision of the country he has and the project and vision we have".

Chávez has repeatedly declared he won't debate Rosales because the candidates from the opposition would be less able to talk than "a schoolboy or girl from a Bolivarian school".

Rallies

Rosales has held several large rallies; the largest has been La Avalancha in Caracas. Chávez held a rally in Caracas; there are no official estimates of the rally size.

Concerns over the Electoral Registry

Opposition candidates and political parties have voiced concerns over the possible inaccuracies of the national electoral registry. Previous elections have shown that there might be a great number of deceased people still on the records. The CNE has audited the Registry on multiple occasions, the first occurred in early 2006 by IIDH-CAPEL (Costa Rican Human Right org) That concluded there was nothing found that delegitimized the registry A second review process started in mid 2006 where the CNE asked all the public universities of Venezuela to conduct also an external review of the electoral registry. However, the review project presented by the Central University of Venezuela, Simón Bolívar University and the Catholic University Andrés Bello was rejected by the CNE. One of the proposed methods by these institutions was comparing census data with the electoral registry. They nevertheless ran their audit in parallel and the representative of the three institutions José Miguel Bernardo concluded "In practice do not favor the government and their distribution is uniform." A second mathematician involved in the audit Raúl Jimenez concluded "One must be responsible. The electoral registry is a disaster and the CNE has done nothing to improve it, but there is nothing to indicate a political intention in the anomalies."

The CNE performed the third audit with the aid of seven other public universities and with the Carter Center and two senators from the Belgian parliament observing the audit. The senators were Jacinta de Roeck, from the SPA/Spirit party, and Sfia Bouarfa, from the French speaking Socialist Party.

In June 2006, a privately funded preliminary study by Genaro Mosquera, a statistics professor at the Central University and member of the political party Democratic Action, claimed that in the last three years the registry grew 27% compare to a population growth of only 7.3% during those years and also a much larger growth than the regular increasse of the registry of 12% every five years between 1948 and 2000. On of the flagship government Bolivarian Missions was mission identidad, where roughly 5 million citizens were awarded an ID card and the right to register and vote Also, by comparing the official population numbers provided with by the Office of National Statistics with the CNE registry, there seems to be more register voters of 45 years of age and over than actual population.

According to NGO Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) preliminary results of a comparison between the Electoral Registry and demographic projections of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) suggests that inconsistencies in the voter data base cannot modify the results of the election.

Other concerns

The opposition is denouncing unfair pressure by the government against those governmental workers who might not want to support the president. They released a video that showed energy minister and head of PDVSA, Rafael Ramírez, telling state oil workers to back President Hugo Chávez or to leave their jobs. He also said PDVSA is red "from top to bottom". He also said that PDVSA's "workers are with this revolution, and those who aren't should go somewhere else. Go to Miami". Opposition media outlets have been repeating the 14-minute video over and over again. President Chávez said he supported the PDVSA director and recommended him to make the same speech to oil workers 100 times a day. The CNE opened an investigation into Rafael Ramírez following the protests from the opposition.

See also

Hugo Chávez
45th President of Venezuela (1999–2013)
Early life and career
Presidency
Political events
Domestic policy
Foreign policy
Image

Notes

  1. Terra Dimite opositor que figuraba en encuestas tras Rosales y Chávez Retrieved 15 Nov 2006Template:Es icon
  2. El-Universal Piedra party votes Rosales Retrieved 23 Nov 2006
  3. Terra. Observadores de la UE tendrán plena libertad en las elecciones. (15 November 2006), Accessed 17 November 2006.Template:Es icon
  4. El Universal 15 Nov 2006 CNE y Unión Europea firman memorando de entendimiento para observación internacional Retrieved 15 Nov 2006 Template:Es icon
  5. El Universal 23 Nov 2006 OEA se compromete a señalar "cualquier anomalía" que detecte en el proceso electoral Retrieved 23 Nov 2006Template:Es icon
  6. Unión Radio. Campaña de Chávez estará basada en la defensa de la soberanía. (21 August 2006) Retrieved 21 August 2006. Template:Es icon
  7. Barbour, Scott. Venezuela's Chavez launches campaign for re-election. Associated Press (12 August 2006).
  8. ^ Chávez: "10 million vote goal is hard to attain". El Universal (18 August 2006).
  9. Government of Venezuela. Chávez anuncia que convocará su referéndum revocatorio de mandato. (1 September 2006) Retrieved 2 September 2006. Template:Es icon
  10. Rosales's candidacy formally announced. El Universal (9 August 2006).
  11. El Nacional 59% de los venezolanos reprueban plan Mi NegraRetrieved 2 Jun 2006 Template:Es icon
  12. Kraul, Chris. Chavez's Foes Cancel Primary, Line Up Behind One Candidate. Los Angeles Times (9 August 2006).
  13. Sanchez, Fabiola. Rosales opposition choice to face Chavez. Associated Press (10 August 2006).
  14. El Universal (El Universal 29 Oct 2006)[http://www.eud.com/2006/10/29/pol_art_50150.shtml Caravana del oficialismo en Caracas] Retrieved 11 Nov 2006 Template:Es icon "y el slogan de los diez millones de votos."
  15. ^ "Comando Miranda juramentado como frente anti-imperialista". Venezolana de Televisión-Ministerio de Comunicación e Información (17 August 2006). Template:Es icon
  16. El Tiempo. El presidente Hugo Chávez es ahora amoroso y azul. (12 October 2006). Accessed 29 October 2006. Template:Es icon
  17. The Guardian. The new-look Chávez: lover, people's poet, electioneer.(18 October 2006). Accessed 29 October 2006.
  18. Terra. El 76,7 por ciento de los venezolanos aprueba el 'mensaje de amor' de Hugo Chávez. (22 October 2006). Accessed 29 October 2006 Template:Es icon
  19. Atrévete con Manual Rosales. Accessed 25 August 2006.
  20. ^ Oppenheimer, Andres. Opposition candidate takes distance from 'empire'. Miami Herald (20 August 2006).
  21. ^ Poder Electoral admitió postulaciones de siete candidatos presidenciales. El Universal (19 August 2006). Template:Es icon
  22. ^ Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias. La revolución inscribió a Chávez como su candidato. (12 August 2006). Accessed 12 August 2006. Template:Es icon
  23. ^ CNE. CNE recibio postulaciones en respaldo a candidatura de Manuel Rosales. (20 August 2006). Accessed 20 August 2006. Template:Es icon
  24. El Universal Comando por la resistencia da apoyo a Rosales y llama a votar el 3D (09 Nov 2006) Retrieved 11 Nov 2006 Template:Es icon
  25. Convergencia: Un compromiso de solidaridad. "Las autoridades convergentes tomaron la decisión de apoyar la candidatura unitaria del gobernador Manuel Rosales con la tarjeta propia de Convergencia." Retrieved 2 September 2006.
  26. Copei joins Rosales' campaign team. El Universal (21 August 2006).
  27. Roberto Smith steps down on behalf of Rosales. El Universal (24 August 2006).
  28. Globovisión El presidente de Acción Democrática declaró que no se cambiará la línea abstencionista. (17 August 2006) Retrieved 20 August 2006 Template:Es icon
  29. La Cadena Global. Encuestadora Zogby: Chávez sería reelecto por amplio margen.(24 November 2006). Accessed 24 November 2006. Template:Es icon
  30. Terra. Las encuestas otorgan a Chávez más del 54% de los votos de cara a las presidenciales. (24 November2006). Accessed 24 November2006. Template:Es icon
  31. Ap-ipsos. Venezuela Pre-Election Results (23 November2006). Accessed 23 November2006.
  32. Nasdaq. Venezuela's Chavez Holds Big Lead Over Opponent-Poll. Retrieved 18 Nov 2006.
  33. El Diario. Datanálisis: Chávez ganará con 60%. (17 November 2006). Accessed 20 November 2006. Template:Es icon
  34. ^ El Universal. Encuestadora estadounidense da 48% a Chávez y 42% a Rosales Retrieved 16 November 2006 Template:Es icon
  35. Reuters Chávez mantiene amplia ventaja electoral frente opositor: sondeo Retrieved 11 November 2006Template:Es icon
  36. Evans McDonough Company [http://www.evansmcdonough.com/home_frame.html Latest Polling from Venezuela Tuesday November 7, 2006] Retrieved 7 Nov 2006
  37. Kennedy, Alex (Bloomberg 7 Nov 2006)Chavez Leads Venezuela Rival by 22 Points, Poll Shows (Update1) Retrieved 7 November 2006
  38. Houston Chronicle. Poll: Venezuela's Chavez has wide lead. (24 October 2006). Accessed 24 October 2006.
  39. Terra España. Chávez goza de la mayoría en intención de voto según encuesta. (14 October 2006). Accessed 14 October 2006.Template:Es icon
  40. Globovision Staff. Encuesta revela vulnerabilidad de Chávez de cara al 3 de Diciembre: H.Chávez:50% M.Rosales:37%. Globovision (16 September 2006). Template:Es icon Full Poll Results in English.
  41. Encuesta: 58% de los venezolanos votaría por Chávez. El Nuevo Herald. (13 September 2006), Accessed 13 September 2006.Template:Es icon
  42. Vote intention for Chávez is diminishing, says polling firm. El Universal (1 September 2006).
  43. Hinterlaces: Chávez desciende de 55 a 48 por ciento en intención de voto. El Universal (1 September 2006). Template:Es icon
  44. 10 presidential candidates to vie for Venezuelan presidency. People's Daily. (25 August 2006). Retrieved 28 August 2006.
  45. Grant, Will. Chavez opponent rallies followers. BBC (20 August 2006).
  46. Padgett, Tim. Hugo Chavez: Leading the Left-Wing Charge. Time (8 May 2006).
  47. El Universal Sondeos reflejan que mercados foráneos dan por sentado triunfo de Chávez Retrieved 21 Nov 2006 Template:Es icon
  48. Heading for presidential elections. El Universal (25 August 2006).
  49. ^ Súmate announced primaries for August 13th. El Universal (7 July 2006).
  50. Teodoro Petkoff refuses to run in primaries. El Universal (7 July 2006).
  51. Froilán Barrios condenó expresiones de Petkoff. El Universal (7 July 2006). Template:Es icon
  52. Súmate: there will be no primary elections. El Universal (8 August 2006).
  53. Bloomberg. Mass Venezuela opposition rall (8 October 2006). Accessed 02 November 2006.
  54. Auditoria internacional del Registro Electoral Retrieved 5 Nov 2006 Template:Es icon
  55. ^ Pereira, Javier. "Detectaron inconsistencias demográficas entre los votantes mayores de 45 años". El Nacional (25 June 2006) p. A-2. Template:Es icon
  56. ^ Willpert, Gregory (Venezuela Analysis 22 July 2006) Preliminary Results of Venezuela’s Voter Registry Audit Show No Intent for Fraud Retrieved 5 Nov 2006
  57. http://sfiabouarfa.typepad.com/mon_weblog/2006/08/mission_dobserv.html
  58. INFORME DEL COMITÉ EJECUTIVO NACIONAL (C.E.N.) AL COMITÉ DIRECTIVO NACIONAL (C.D.N.) 07 DE AGOSTO DE 2006. Globovisión (13 August 2006). Template:Es icon
  59. http://www.misionvenezuela.gov.ve/11Identidad/11Derechoexistir.htm Mission Identidad] Retrieved 11 Nov 2006 Template:Es icon"La Misión IDENTIDAD , uno de los más recientes beneficios sociales, posibilitó cedular a 5 millones 76 mil personas, de ellos más de 600 mil venezolanos e inmigrantes extranjeros con muchos años en el país obtuvieron por primera vez su cédula de identidad, primera condición para convertirse de excluidos en ciudadanos, con derecho a participar en procesos electorales, y a existir como personas."
  60. El Universal. Ojo electoral avala Registro Electoral para elección presidencial. (August 19, 2006) Retrieved August 24, 2006 Template:Es icon
  61. Storm over Venezuela oil speech BBC (Retrieved 6 Nov 2006)
  62. http://www.eluniversal.com/2006/11/07/pol_ava_07A801197.shtml

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