1992 United States presidential election

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 140.198.86.89 (talk) at 21:20, 4 December 2006 (→Analysis). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Revision as of 21:20, 4 December 2006 by 140.198.86.89 (talk) (→Analysis)(diff) ← Previous revision | Latest revision (diff) | Newer revision → (diff)

The U.S. presidential election of 1992 featured a three-way battle between Republican George Bush, the incumbent President; Democrat Bill Clinton, the governor of Arkansas; and independent candidate Ross Perot, a Texas businessman. Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes, the economy had sunk into recession, and his perceived best strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East following the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War. Clinton successfully capitalized on these weaknesses by running as a centrist New Democrat and won the presidency.

Nominations

More: 1992 Democratic presidential primary.

Other nominations

The public's unease about the deficit and fears of professional politicians allowed the independent candidacy of billionaire Texan Ross Perot to explode on the scene in the most dramatic fashion—at one point Perot was the leader in the polls. Perot crusaded against the national debt, tapping vague fears of deficits that has been part of American political rhetoric since the 1790s. His volunteers succeeded in collecting enough signatures to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states. In June, Perot led the national public opinion polls with support from 39% of the voters (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton). Perot severely damaged his credibility by dropping out of the presidential contest in July and remaining out of the race for several weeks before re-entering. He compounded this damage by eventually claiming, without evidence, that his withdrawal was due to Republican operatives attempting to disrupt his daughter's wedding. His presence, however, ensured that economic issues remained at the center of the national debate.

The 1992 campaign also marked the unofficial entry of Ralph Nader into presidential politics. Despite the advice of several liberal and environmental groups, Nader did not formally run. Rather, he tried to make an impact in the New Hampshire primaries, urging members of both parties to write-in NONE OF THE ABOVE. As a result, several thousand Democrats and Republicans wrote-in Nader's own name. Though thought to be a left-wing politician, Nader curiously received more votes from Republicans than Democrats.

General election

Results

On November 3, Bill Clinton won election as the 42nd President of the United States by a wide margin in the U.S. Electoral College, despite receiving only 43 percent of the popular vote. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the popular vote. The state of Arkansas was the only state in the entire country that gave the majority of its vote to a single candidate; the rest were won by pluralities of the vote.

Independent candidate Ross Perot received 19,741,065 popular votes for President. The billionaire used his own money to advertise extensively, and is the only third-party candidate ever allowed into the nationally televised presidential debates with both major party candidates. (Independent John Bayard Anderson debated Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980, but without Democrat Jimmy Carter who had refused to appear in a three-man debate.) Perot was ahead in the polls for a period of almost two months - not accomplished by an independent candidate in almost 100 years. Perot lost much of his support when he temporarily withdrew from the election, only to soon after again declare himself a candidate.

Perot's almost 19% of the popular vote made him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Some conservative analysts believe that Perot acted as a spoiler in the election, primarily drawing votes away from Bush and allowing Clinton to win many states with less than a majority of votes. However, exit polling indicated that Perot voters would have split their votes fairly evenly among Clinton and Bush had Perot not been in the race, and an analysis by FairVote - Center for Voting and Democracy suggested that, while Bush would have won more electoral votes with Perot out of the race, he would not have gained enough to reverse Clinton's victory.

Perot managed to finish ahead of one of the two major party candidates in two states: In Maine, Perot received 30.44% of the vote to Bush's 30.39% (Clinton won Maine with 38.77%); In Utah, Perot received 27.34% of the vote to Clinton's 24.65% (Bush won Utah with 43.36%).

Character issues

Many character issues were raised during the campaign, including allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam War, and had used marijuana, which Clinton claimed he had pretended to smoke, but "didn't inhale". Allegations of extramarital affairs and shady business deals were also raised. Clinton displayed the resiliency in the face of scandal-mongering that would later be pivotal in his presidency. As the candidate with the most money and the best-articulated campaign strategy — creating more jobs — Clinton was able to stay in the race the longest, fending off all rivals long before the Democratic convention.

Analysis

Several factors made the results possible. First, the campaign came on the heels of the recession of 1990-91. While in historical terms the recession was mild and actually ended before the election, the resulting job loss (especially among middle managers not yet accustomed to white collar downsizing) fueled strong discontent with Bush, who was successfully portrayed as aloof, out of touch, and overly focused on foreign affairs. Highly telegenic, Clinton was perceived as sympathetic, concerned, and more in touch with ordinary families.

Second was the decision by Bush to accept a tax increase. Pressured by rising budget deficits, increased demand for entitlement spending and reduced tax revenues (each a consequence of the recession) Bush agreed to a budget compromise with Congress (where rival Democrats held the majority). Not having been in Congress at the time, Clinton was able to effectively condemn the tax increase on both its own merits and as a reflection of Bush's honesty. Effective Democratic TV ads were aired showing a clip of Bush's infamous 1988 campaign speech in which he promised "Read my lips ... No new taxes." In a semantic irony, President Bush did not add new taxes, only increasing existing taxes, but the implied meaning was clear, as he had explicitly stated in the speech, "My opponent won't rule out raising taxes. But I will. The Congress will push me to raise taxes and I'll say no."

Most importantly, Bush's coalition was in disarray, for both the aforementioned reasons and for unrelated reasons. The end of the Cold War allowed old rivalries among conservatives to re-emerge and meant that other voters focused more on domestic policy, to the detriment of Bush, a social and fiscal moderate. Ross Perot — like Bush a conservative Texas businessman, but unlike Bush playing to concerns about the budget deficit — siphoned crucial moderate and conservative votes from Bush. Perot, in gaining a higher percentage of the popular vote than any third-party presidential candidate in eighty years, allowed Clinton to win with the smallest plurality in the same time period. Despite a fractious and ideologically diverse party, Clinton was able to successfully court all wings of the Democratic party, even where they conflicted. To garner the support of moderates and conservative Democrats, he attacked Sister Souljah, a little-known rap musician whose lyrics Clinton condemned. Clinton could also point to his moderate, New Democrat record as Governor of Arkansas. More liberal Democrats were impressed by Clinton's academic credentials, 60's-era protest record, and support for social causes such as a woman's right to abortion. Supporters remained energized and confident, even in times of scandal or missteps.

Clinton's election ended an era in which the Republican party had controlled the White House for 12 consecutive years, and for 20 of the previous 24 years. That election also brought the Democrats full control of the political branches of the federal government, including both houses of U.S. Congress as well as the presidency, for the first time since the administration of the last Democratic president, Jimmy Carter.

Voter demographics

THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN SOCIAL GROUPS (IN PERCENTAGES)
% of 1992 total vote		3-party vote
		1992			1996
	Social group	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
	Total vote	43	37	19	49	41	8
	Party and ideology
2	Liberal Republicans	17	54	30	44	48	9
13	Moderate Republicans	15	63	21	20	72	7
21	Conservative Republicans	5	82	13	6	88	5
4	Liberal Independents	54	17	30	58	15	18
15	Moderate Independents	43	28	30	50	30	17
7	Conservative Independents	17	53	30	19	60	19
13	Liberal Democrats	85	5	11	89	5	4
20	Moderate Democrats	76	9	15	84	10	5
6	Conservative Democrats	61	23	16	69	23	7
	Gender and marital status
33	Married men	38	42	21	40	48	10
33	Married women	41	40	19	48	43	7
15	Unmarried men	48	29	22	49	35	12
20	Unmarried women	53	31	15	62	28	7
	Race
83	White	39	40	20	43	46	9
10	Black	83	10	7	84	12	4
5	Hispanic	61	25	14	72	21	6
1	Asian	31	55	15	43	48	8
	Religion
46	White Protestant	33	47	21	36	53	10
29	Catholic	44	35	20	53	37	9
3	Jewish	80	11	9	78	16	3
17	Born Again, religious right	23	61	15	26	65	8
	Age
17	18–29 years old	43	34	22	53	34	10
33	30–44 years old	41	38	21	48	41	9
26	45–59 years old	41	40	19	48	41	9
24	60 and older	50	38	12	48	44	7
	Education
6	Not a high school graduate	54	28	18	59	28	11
24	High school graduate	43	36	21	51	35	13
27	Some college education	41	37	21	48	40	10
26	College graduate	39	41	20	44	46	8
17	Post graduate education	50	36	14	52	40	5
	Family income
11	Under $15,000	58	23	19	59	28	11
23	$15,000–$29,999	45	35	20	53	36	9
27	$30,000–$49,999	41	38	21	48	40	10
39	Over $50,000	39	44	17	44	48	7
18	Over $75,000	36	48	16	41	51	7
9	Over $100,000	—	—	—	38	54	6
	Region
23	East	47	35	18	55	34	9
26	Midwest	42	37	21	48	41	10
30	South	41	43	16	46	46	7
20	West	43	34	23	48	40	8
	Community size
10	Population over 500,000	58	28	13	68	25	6
21	Population 50,000 to 500,000	50	33	16	50	39	8
39	Suburbs	41	39	21	47	42	8
30	Rural areas, towns	39	40	20	45	44	10

Source: Voter News Service exit poll, reported in The New York Times, November 10, 1996, 28.

References

"Outline of U.S. History: Chapter 15: Bridge to the 21st Century". Official web site of the U.S. Department of State. Retrieved December 10. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |accessyear= ignored (|access-date= suggested) (help)
- Bulk of article text as of January 9, 2003 copied from this page, when it was located at http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/facts/history/ch13.htm#1992 and titled “An Outline of American History: Chapter 13: Toward the 21st Century”.
- An archival version of this page is available at http://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm.
- This page is in the public domain as a government publication.

External links

Navigation

v t e United States presidential elections
Elections by year	1788–89 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
Elections by state	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Primaries and caucuses	Iowa caucuses New Hampshire presidential primary Nevada presidential caucuses South Carolina presidential primary Super Tuesday
Nominating conventions	List of nominating conventions Brokered convention Convention bounce Superdelegate
Electoral College and popular vote	Results summary elections in which the winner lost the popular vote Electoral College margins Electoral College results by state electoral vote changes between elections electoral vote recipients popular votes received popular-vote margins Electoral Count Act Certificate of ascertainment Certificate of vote Contingent election Faithless elector Unpledged elector Voter turnout
Related	Campaign slogans Historical election polling Election Day Major party tickets Major party losers Presidential debates October surprise Red states and blue states Swing state Tipping-point state Election recount (2000) Guam straw poll Puerto Rico straw poll Vice presidential confirmations: 1973 1974
House elections Senate elections Gubernatorial elections

THE 1992 CAMPAIGN: On the Trail; POLL GIVES PEROT A CLEAR LEAD - The New York Times, accessed July 5, 2006
Campaign '96 Ads - CNN, accessed February 25, 2006

Categories:

Misplaced Pages