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Revision as of 17:13, 31 October 2020 by CyclonicallyDeranged (talk | contribs) (being generous here and manually inserted NIWA outlook)(diff) ← Previous revision | Latest revision (diff) | Newer revision → (diff)| 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season | |
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| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | Season Not Started |
| Last system dissipated | Season Not Started |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
| Australian region tropical cyclone seasons 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23 | |
The 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form in the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially started on 1 November 2020 and will end on 30 April 2021, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France will also monitor the basin during the season.
Seasonal forecasts
| Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
Ref | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record high: | 21 | 12 | ||
| Record low: | 3 | 0 | ||
| Average (1969-70 – 2019-20): | 11 | — | ||
| NIWA October (135°E—120°W) | 8-10 | >3 | ||
| Region | Average number |
Chance of more |
Chance of less |
Actual activity |
| Overall (90°E–160°E) |
11 | 66% | 34% | 0 |
| Western region (90°E–125°E) |
7 | 63% | 37% | 0 |
| Northwestern sub-region (105°E–130°E) |
5 | 63% | 37% | 0 |
| Northern region (125°E–142.5°E) |
3 | 57% | 43% | 0 |
| Eastern region (142.5°E–160°E) |
4 | 67% | 33% | 0 |
| Source: BOM's Season Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones | ||||
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued the tropical cyclone outlook for the 2020–21 Australian tropical cyclone season on 12 October. An average to slightly above-average number of tropical cyclones was predicted for the Australian region with a 66% chance of more tropical cyclones than the long-term average of 11. The outlook was influenced by the La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean as well as average to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north of Australia. The outlook cited that the first cyclone typically occurs earlier than normal, around the middle of December, during La Niña years.
The BoM also predicted that the Western region, encompassing the region west of 125°E, had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than the average number of 7. The Northwestern sub-region, encompassing a smaller region limited to east of 105°E, west of 130°E, and north of 25°S, also had a 63% chance of more tropical cyclones than the average of 5 cyclones. The Northern region, comprising the area east of 125°E and west of 142.5°E, had a 57% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones than the average of 3 cyclones. The Eastern region, comprising the area east of 142.5°E, had a 67% chance of more tropical cyclones than the average of 4 cyclones.
Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting on 1 November, the BoM, Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020. The outlook called for a near to a below-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10. At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season.
Storm names
Bureau of Meteorology
Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones. These monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next 12 names on the naming list are listed here below.
| Imogen (unused) | Joshua (unused) | Kimi (unused) | Lucas (unused) | Marian (unused) | Niran (unused) |
| Odette (unused) | Paddy (unused) | Ruby (unused) | Seth (unused) | Tiffany (unused) | Vernon (unused) |
TCWC Jakarta
TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11°S and from 90°E to 145°E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.
| Seroja (unused) | Teratai (unused) | Anggrek (unused) | Bakung (unused) | Cempaka (unused) |
| Dahlia (unused) | Flamboyan (unused) | Kenanga (unused) | Lili (unused) | Mangga (unused) |
TCWC Port Moresby
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007. As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.
| Alu (unused) | Buri (unused) | Dodo (unused) | Emau (unused) | Fere (unused) |
| Hibu (unused) | Ila (unused) | Kama (unused) | Lobu (unused) | Maila (unused) |
Season effects
| Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damage (US$) |
Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Wind speed (km/h (mph)) |
Pressure (hPa) | ||||||
| Season aggregates | ||||||||
| 0 systems | Season not yet begun | Unknown | 0 | |||||
See also
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2020, 2021
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020, 2021
- 2020–21 South–West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ "Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2020. Archived from the original on 12 October 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- ^ Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020 (Report). National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast Indian Ocean, 2014 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2016-06-12.
- Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.
External links
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center
- Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (in Indonesian)
| 2010–2019 Australian region cyclone seasons | |
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