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There is no certainty that a federal election to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons will be held in Canada in 2005, but it is a very strong possibility. Due to recent political events, there is a widespread belief that an election will take place in the spring or summer of 2005. In a televised speech on April 21, Prime Minister Paul Martin promised to call an election within 30 days of the Gomery Commission’s final report. This would give an election date in January or February 2006. However, it is still likely that an election will be held in 2005. There is no legal requirement to hold the 39th general election before 2009.

Introduction

An election in 2005 is possible because the 2004 federal election held on June 28, 2004 resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan of a year and a half. Some pundits consider the current minority to be particularly unstable. It involves four parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g., Liberals + Conservatives, or Liberals + Bloc Québécois) could actually command a majority of the seats.

These combinations may happen on certain issues, but are not likely to stand as stable governing coalitions. The Liberals, New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc could form a voting coalition on decriminalization of marijuana, or endorsing the Kyoto Accord. It was in fact a quasi-coalition of Liberals and Conservatives, that saw the Conservatives abstain en masse on the vote, that ensured the government's survival on the motion of confidence surrounding the budget. The Conservatives had expressed support to the tax cuts and defence spending therein.

From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non-confidence vote.

The two largest parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, are both low on funds to run a campaign, and new campaign finance laws make it far harder to raise funds. It seemed unlikely that there would be an early election as these two parties were unwilling to go to the polls. However, the revelations of the Gomery Commission in late April have caused public opinion to move sharply against the government, the Conservatives have joined the Bloc Québécois in being eager to have an early election. In the short term, it is believed that most Canadians do not want to return to the polls, and may punish any party that brings down the government without very good reason.

It is also worth noting that, while the average lifespan of a minority government overall is about 18 months, Liberal minorities have historically lasted much longer than Conservative minorities. However, previous Liberal minorites were able to push legislation through with the support of the Progressive Party, and later, the NDP. This is not the case in the 38th Parliament - although Liberals agreed to take corporate tax cuts out of the next federal budget on April 26 in exchange for NDP support on votes of confidence, the Liberals will still need the support of the three independent MPs to have any realistic hope of survival.

It is a common misconception that the government can be brought down by losing any vote in the House of Commons. In actual fact, only the loss of a Motion of Confidence can force an election or a change of government. If an election were to occur in 2005, it would most likely follow one of the mandatory confidence votes. The first of these was the vote on estimates in December 2004. The 2005 federal budget would have been a more likely time for the government to lose a vote of confidence. The federal budget was presented in February, but the government was not defeated. In Canada's last minority parliament, the 31st Canadian parliament under Prime Minister Joe Clark, the government was brought down on the budget's confidence motion.

If the government believed that its popularity had improved significantly since the last election, it could have added measures to the budget that would be unacceptable to the opposition and thus forced an election. Instead, the Liberal government tabled a budget that the opposition Conservaties deemed acceptable, thus probably ensuring its passage. The Conservatives originally pledged their support, then abstained to allow the main budget motion to pass but are now musing about opposing the budget implementation bill.

An election in 2005 would involve the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except for in New Brunswick, where the boundaries of Acadie-Bathurst were deemed illegal. Many of the candidates would also be the same. Fewer incumbents would choose to leave than if they had served a full term, and the parties have generally blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government (although there are some exceptions, for example Calgary MP Jim Prentice may be challenged for his Conservative nomination by Craig Chandler due to his views in favour of same-sex marriage. Most Tory MPs have been protected from such challenges at the riding level).

Issues

Issues that are likely to play a major role in any new election

• Sponsorship scandal: This issue continues to be a hinderance for the governing Liberals. The Liberals are currently being attacked and will undoubtedly continue to be hammered by the opposition on this issue, particularly by the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois, especially after inquiry hearings in early 2005. Recent testimony has intensified the debate and strengthened the opposition, as new and sharp details have come out in the Gomery Commission. It will likely be the #1 issue in the next election. An April 14th CBC poll shows it and government leadership as being the top election issue, even ahead of health care.
• Health care: This is a perennial top issue in Canada. Prime Minister Paul Martin increased funding for health care in 2004 by $41 billion, however there are many debates resulting from the announcement. Quebec agreed to a separate deal and that may not be popular in other parts of Canada. In addition, many on the political right, who want a true two-tier system, and left, who want a completely socialized system with absolutely no private influence, are unhappy over the amount of public influence in the system.
• Social issues: While traditionally a non-issue in Canada, the results from the U.S. election of 2004 appear to be motivating the Christian Right, especially in the rural areas, and bringing issues like abortion and same-sex marriage to the forefront, especially after the likely passage of the same-sex marriage bill, expected to be in mid-2005. Most Conservatives are moderately or strongly pro-life, and the large majority oppose legal recognition of same-sex marriage, while the Liberals are sometimes divided on abortion with more support than opposition, they endorsed same-sex marriage as party policy but some members are in strong disagreement. Most of the Bloc Quebecois and most New Democrats are strongly pro-choice and are strong supporters of same-sex marriage. Abortion is unlikely to be an issue as the Conservative Party rejected all calls to restrict abortions during their 2005 convention, however individual members may bring the issue up again.
• Fiscal imbalance: All major parties except the Liberals claim that there is a fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces and speak of plans to reduce it. The Bloc Québécois is the most vocal party on this issue. Several provincial governments, most notably Dalton McGuinty's Ontario Liberal Party have also spoken out on the issue.
• Taxation: The Conservatives propose to lower taxes significantly. They believe that this would stimulate the economy. In 2004, the Conservatives promised to end "corporate welfare" and replace it with tax cuts for all businesses. The Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP opposed large tax cuts, and argued that money should instead be spent to improve social programs. Huge surpluses ($9.1 billion in 2004) have increased the appetite for tax cuts. The 2005 budget originally implemented relatively modest tax cuts which have been criticized by both the right (who demanded much greater tax relief) and the left (who believed corporations and higher-income Canadians should have to pay higher taxes). However, a later agreement between the Liberals and NDP rescinded the tax cuts, and that was praised by the left but demonized by the right (especially business leaders).
• Parliamentary reform: The Conservatives accused the Liberals of perpetuating "undemocratic practices" in Parliament, by limiting the powers of MPs. Martin called for some reform, but it never materialized. The Conservatives promised an elected Senate and standing committee and provincial review of judicial appointments. The NDP spoke of abolishing the Canadian Senate - all parties claim to want to reform it. The appointments of nine Senators on March 24, 2005 has intensified the debate, it has angered many Conservatives, especially in Alberta.
• Electoral reform: The Conservatives promised fixed election dates. The NDP and the Green Party promote the idea of proportional representation voting -- these parties win a considerably smaller proportion of seats in the House of Commons than of the popular vote under the current first past the post system. Meanwhile, referenda will be held in British Columbia in May 2005 on using single transferable vote in future provincial elections and in November 2005 in Prince Edward Island on using mixed proportional representation. Ontario is also considering such reforms. Changes at the provincial level will put pressure on the federal government to make similar changes.
• National Missile Defence: The Bush administration in the U.S. wants Canada to join the missile shield. Most Conservatives (including their party policy) support such a plan, while the Bloc, the NDP and many Liberals strongly oppose it. Prime Minister Martin announced in February 2005 that Canada will not join the missile shield; that has upset some Liberals who supported missile defence.
• Gun registry: Many Conservatives strongly oppose the gun registry while the other parties generally support it. A few Liberal backbenchers have spoken against the registry.
• Parliament stability: Public opinion polls suggest that any new election held soon will result in another minority government. This may reduce the appetite for a new election and punish whoever forced the election.
• Canada-US relations: This issue has divided Canada more than ever since the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. Most Conservatives believe that closer relations with the United States (such as a North American security perimeter and deeper integration through NAFTA) are necessary for economic and political reasons. Most of the Bloc and NDP believe that Canada needs to move away from the US, especially with the re-election of Bush in 2004. The Liberals are deeply split, with many on both sides.

Opinion Polls

In the wake of Jean Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission and its release on April 7, several polls were commissioned to gauge the fallout for the Liberals. The results of these polls showed a dip in support for the Liberals which encouraged the Conservatives to seek an early election by tabling a non-confidence motion. However, Liberal support has recovered following an agreement with the NDP to support some changes to the Budget. Despite this, the Conservatives and Bloc are still seeking to pass a non-confidence motion.

Note that the majority of dates listed here are dates the poll were released, not conducted.

1. Polling for this data mostly occured before Jean Brault's Gomery Inquiry testimony was released.

Targets

The term "Targets" is used often in the UK and Australia, but not so in Canada. In those nations, it represents the ridings that the parties had their highest percentage of the vote without winning. Winning party shown in brackets. Up to 20 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%

Cabinet ministers who won by less than 5% in 2004

1. Liza Frulla, Canadian Heritage: 0.2% over BQ in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC
2. Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Northern Development: 0.3% over NDP in Western Arctic, NT
3. Pierre Pettigrew. Foreign Affairs: 1.1% over BQ in Papineau, QC
4. Anne McLellan, Deputy PM/Public Safety: 1.4% over Cons. in Edmonton Centre, AB
5. Tony Valeri, House Leader, 1.9% over NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON
6. Aileen Carroll, International Cooperation, 2.6% over Cons. in Barrie, ON
7. David Emerson, Industry, 3.1% over NDP in Vancouver Kingsway, BC
8. Jacques Saada, Quebec Economic Development, 4.9% over BQ in Brossard—La Prairie, QC

Candidates

• All on one page

• Newfoundland and Labrador
• Prince Edward Island
• Nova Scotia
• New Brunswick
• Quebec
• Ontario
• Manitoba
• Saskatchewan
• Alberta
• British Columbia
• Nunavut
• Northwest Territories
• Yukon

National

• The first number in the Number of Candidates row is the number of officially confirmed candidates. The second number (in italics) is the number of ridings with rumored or possible candidates (nomination battles count as one candidate).

Notes:

"% change" refers to change from previous election

Timeline

2004

• November 18 - Outspoken Liberal MP Carolyn Parrish was dismissed from the Liberal caucus by Prime Minister Martin for making statements critical of the Liberal Party and the prime minister. She now sits as an independent.

• December 16 - Liberal MP Lawrence O'Brien died of cancer. A by-election in his riding, Labrador, has been called for May 24.

2005

• February 23 - Finance Minister Ralph Goodale presents the 2005 federal budget to the Canadian House of Commons. The Conservatives abstained on the vote, which was held on March 9, ensuring the government's survival for the time-being.
• March 31 - Testimony by Jean Brault, former president of Groupaction at the Gomery Commission is considered so damaging to the Liberals that many speculate that an election may be held soon. The details of the testimony are not publicly revealed due to a publication ban imposed by Mr. Justice Gomery.
• April 7 - Justice Gomery lifts the publication ban on much of the testimony just minutes before question period. Opposition parties launch a full assault on the government with the new evidence.
• April 11

• An EKOS/Toronto Star poll shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 25%. This is the first time since before the 1993 election that a party has led the Liberals by more than the margin of error.
• Liberal MPs David Kilgour and Pat O'Brien both muse about crossing the floor to the Conservatives. O'Brien says at least three others are considering a similar move.

• April 13 - David Kilgour leaves the Liberal caucus to sit as an Independent, he says he will not run as a Conservative but does not confirm whether or not he will seek re-election as an Independent or leave politics at the end of the 38th Parliament.
• April 14 - Despite his earlier musings, Pat O'Brien announces he will remain in the Liberal caucus.
• April 20 - Prime Minister Paul Martin announces that he will address the nation at 19:45 ET the following day; the time is later changed to 19:02 to accommodate television networks. The move is considered largely unprecedented for a Canadian Prime Minister except in the case of a national emergency. Previous such addresses were Jean Chrétien's on the eve of the 1995 Quebec referendum which nearly saw Canada break up, two by Brian Mulroney, one with respect to the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and one with respect to the Meech Lake Accord, three by Pierre Trudeau, once during the October Crisis, also when the government introduced wage and price controls to combat stagflation and upon the first election victory of the Parti Québécois, and once by Lester Pearson when the government lost a vote of confidence in the House but continued to govern with the support of subsequent motion.

• April 21 - In his televised address to the nation, Prime Minister Martin promises to call an election within 30 days of the final report of the Gomery Commission, due on December 15, should his government survive to that date, while outlining the steps his administration has taken to address the sponsorship scandal. Following this, each of the three opposition party leaders respond live following Martin's taped address. The NDP's Jack Layton offers to support the government, which, with the close numbers in the House of Commons would make the survival of the government possible but not certain, if Martin will remove corporate tax cuts from the budget. Opposition Leader Stephen Harper suggests an election is likely but not certain while Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe unequivocally supports an immediate election. If Martin's proposed timetable holds and a standard 36-day campaign results an election would be held between January 19 and February 20, 2006.
• April 26 - An agreement in principle between the Liberals and the NDP is reached under which tax cuts for large corporations will be deferred but those for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME's) will remain. The deferred tax cuts will be introduced later in a separate bill, while budget surpluses will be used to fund mutual Liberal and NDP priorities such as: training, post-secondary education, foreign aid, affordable housing and the environment. Under the agreement, the NDP will support the government on any confidence motions until the budget receives Royal Assent.
• May 10

Judy Sgro, the former Minister of Citizenship and Immigration is cleared of all wrongdoing by the federal ethics commissioner regarding allegations she gave a passport to a Romanian stripper on her re-election campaign.

The House of Commons passes, by a margin of 153 to 150, a Conservative motion which called upon the House Public Accounts committee to "recommand that the government resign because of its failure to address the deficiencies in governance of the public service". Conservative and Bloc Québécois MPs voted in favor of the motion against the Liberals, the NDP and two independent MPs. Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri maintained that the vote was not a matter of confidence while all opposition parties, including the NDP though it sided with the government on the vote.

• May 11 - Prime Minister Martin announces that the vote on the budget implementation bill will be on May 19, he suggests that this will be the time that the House will determine whether or not it has confidence in his government.
• May 19 - The date where the budget implementation bill will be voted upon and will determine whether the Government has confidence in the House of Commons.

External links

• Nodice Elections: Canada
• Poll data
• electionprediction.org
• Nomination Watch

• Canadian federal elections