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Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.

The Earth's global surface temperature is determined by the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and the retention of that heat by greenhouse gases. This Earth's average temperature has increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and this attribution of recent global warming has been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science. While a small minority have voiced disagreement with these findings, the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the IPCC's main conclusions.

Climate model projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century. The disagreement between these estimate arises from use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions and from use of models with differing climate sensitivity. Many climate models omit positive feedback effects which may significantly increase the rate and magnitude of global warming (notably Arctic methane release). This omission of positive feedback effects is a potential reason why Arctic shrinkage has happened far faster than the IPCC's predictions.

Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, changes due to warming are expected to continue for more than a thousand years, even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized.

Increasing global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions. Other likely effects include continuing Arctic shrinkage and accelerating Arctic methane release, increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, changes in agricultural yields, modifications of trade routes, glacier retreat, species extinctions and changes in the ranges of disease vectors. There is still much uncertainty about the specific effects of global warming on local regions. Some scientists have speculated that global warming may lead to very severe disruption to the atmosphere and oceans. Such suggested effects include global wildfires, an ocean anoxic event or runaway climate change.

Political and public debate continues regarding what, if any, responses to global warming are made. The available options are: Mitigation to reduce further emissions; Adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and Geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, though a new deal on Global climate will be needed when Kyoto expires in 2012.

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2. ^ Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.
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